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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited November 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Yorkcity said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'

    ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip

    Is there anyone who listens to Peston's rants
    I prefer ITV news at 10pm to BBC .I used to think Tom Bradby was very Tory.However he is really good and interesting with his comments as he leads the news.
    Do you think it's the job of a newsreader to make comments? I think they should just read out the news in an authoritative way.
    It seems to be a different genre to the BBC .So if the opportunity arises to comment , makes it more interesting .Especially in comparison to the boring royal correspondent on BBC Nicholas Witchell.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    So far but we await further investigation, certainly people were fleeing from the Oxford Circus area earlier
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    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

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    Mr. City, I really don't like newsreaders trying to be clever. I watch the news for the news, not for Bradby trying to be funny or McCoy offering his opinion.

    On the Oxford Street business: sounds like the best possible news. Well, second best, after the Swedish Nymphomaniac Association tour bus breaking down outside my house.
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    AndyJS said:

    Yorkcity said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'

    ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip

    Is there anyone who listens to Peston's rants
    I prefer ITV news at 10pm to BBC .I used to think Tom Bradby was very Tory.However he is really good and interesting with his comments as he leads the news.
    Do you think it's the job of a newsreader to make comments? I think they should just read out the news in an authoritative way.
    You could get someone on minimum wage to do that.

    The witty and insightful comments justify the extra half million.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited November 2017

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation
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    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Well, messy either way.

    Prison 'lives with his mum' Planet is definitely experiencing some wrist strain at the moment.
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    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation
    Gallows humor, I thought it was a British specialty?
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    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,881
    Off-topic:

    How the heck can this not be manslaughter?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-42110619

    He'd been taking cocaine for 18 hours before the crash, was driving at up to 117 MPH, and killed the two young men whilst driving along the verge on the wrong side of the road.

    "Death by dangerous driving," ffs.
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    Mortimer said:

    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    I am sure that's right. It's silly, though.
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    Merkel appeared to have staged one of the great political escapes on Friday after a rival party agreed to end the crisis in Germany by opening talks on forming a new government.

    Martin Schulz, the leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), said his party had agreed to end its refusal to enter talks with Mrs Merkel following a “dramatic” personal appeal from the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Off-topic:

    How the heck can this not be manslaughter?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-42110619

    He'd been taking cocaine for 18 hours before the crash, was driving at up to 117 MPH, and killed the two young men whilst driving along the verge on the wrong side of the road.

    "Death by dangerous driving," ffs.

    Maximum sentence: 15 years
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Merkel appeared to have staged one of the great political escapes on Friday after a rival party agreed to end the crisis in Germany by opening talks on forming a new government.

    Martin Schulz, the leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), said his party had agreed to end its refusal to enter talks with Mrs Merkel following a “dramatic” personal appeal from the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

    You'd imagine Schulz will extract a high price from Merkel for the votes.

    However its unlikely to be anything to do with immigration and the German public will now be governed by a coalition of pro-immigration parties.

    What happens to AFD support next ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    I am not going to speak for Tommy Robinson but every potential terrorist attack must be taken very seriously by the police given current circumstances
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    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

    When will the ROI start building the border posts for the EU side ?

    The should get a move on.

    We could call it the Shamrock curtain or Berlin's wall.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    Yup, I think the notion of a customs association WITH the EU would have worked. Still might, of course, with rules of origin.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation
    Gallows humor, I thought it was a British specialty?
    Given I was just a few minutes from it and was told it was a terrorist attack by a number of pedestrians I am not really in a laughing mood about it at the moment. Though yes we British are generally good at using humour in times of adversity
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    Mortimer said:

    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    I am sure that's right. It's silly, though.
    Its not silly, its the rules. The two are mutually exclusive.
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    I wonder why our Tommy deleted this tweet?

    https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/934120933379465216
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation
    Gallows humor, I thought it was a British specialty?
    Given I was just a few minutes from it and was told it was a terrorist attack by a number of pedestrians I am not really in a laughing mood about it at the moment. Though yes we British are generally good at using humour in times of adversity
    A frightening experience, no doubt. I can see how it may be a bit soon for those personally involved.
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    Off-topic:

    How the heck can this not be manslaughter?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-42110619

    He'd been taking cocaine for 18 hours before the crash, was driving at up to 117 MPH, and killed the two young men whilst driving along the verge on the wrong side of the road.

    "Death by dangerous driving," ffs.

    How is that not death by dangerous driving?
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    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    I think that is completely the wrong way around. Staying in the Customs Union removes any ability to make our own trade deals but does not give us access to the Single Market. It is the very worst of solutions.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    I wonder why our Tommy deleted this tweet?

    https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/934120933379465216

    It's a good bet that any future terrorist attack will be by an islamic extremist known to the security services, given how many persons of interest they are tracking. Still, a stupid thing to post before establishing the facts.
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    TGOHF said:

    Once again, Stephen Bush bang on the money:

    The freedom of leaving the customs union is a mirage, as domestic resistance to trade deals is so high that the benefits take decades to be realised, if they even are at all. The cost, however, is a loss of existing trade and a hard border, either in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
    Nonetheless, because the extreme minority of Leavers who want to strike their own trade deals are concentrated in and around Westminster, that – rather than any of the reasons why most people backed Brexit – is driving the British approach.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/leaving-customs-union-another-reminder-brexit-being-negotiated-interests

    When will the ROI start building the border posts for the EU side ?

    The should get a move on.

    We could call it the Shamrock curtain or Berlin's wall.

    It doesn't take long to build a customs post, I don't suppose. We do know the Irish have been working on the issue since before the Brexit vote, so in terms of being prepared and informed they are way ahead of any of the leaders of the Brexit campaign now in the cabinet.

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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    I am not going to speak for Tommy Robinson but every potential terrorist attack must be taken very seriously by the police given current circumstances

    I agree.

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    I think that is completely the wrong way around. Staying in the Customs Union removes any ability to make our own trade deals but does not give us access to the Single Market. It is the very worst of solutions.

    It would give us very good access to the Single Market in manufactured goods, with the other advantages I listed.

    You are right about the trade deals bit. That's a disadvantage but I don't think it's a very important one compared with, for example, the likely damage to the car industry if we don't have some kind of customs-union arrangement. After all our Brexiteer friends keep telling us that it's perfectly OK to trade under WTO rules with the stonking great economic bloc on our doorstep, so it's puzzling that they are so keen on the uncertain prospect of our doing our own trade deals with other countries.
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    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    I think that is completely the wrong way around. Staying in the Customs Union removes any ability to make our own trade deals but does not give us access to the Single Market. It is the very worst of solutions.

    Doesn't that depend on what kind of trade deals we could negotiate by not being in the Customs Union?

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    If our farmers are bankrupted by trading freely with Aus and NZ then that will be because we, the great British public, determine Aussie and Kiwi produce to be either cheaper or better quality than that which our own farmers produce.

    Why do you object to us getting cheaper or better produce? Why is that a bad thing?
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    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    I think that is completely the wrong way around. Staying in the Customs Union removes any ability to make our own trade deals but does not give us access to the Single Market. It is the very worst of solutions.

    Doesn't that depend on what kind of trade deals we could negotiate by not being in the Customs Union?

    Of all the non-European nations in the world with bigger economies than ours, Australia has a free trade deal with them all. We have a free trade deal with none of them.
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.

    Yep, not being in it only makes sense if we can do better on our own. So, would deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc - and accepting the US regulatory regime in order to get one with the Yanks - make up for what we lose trade-wise by quitting the Customs Union? It's hard to see how that is the case.

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    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.

    Yep, not being in it only makes sense if we can do better on our own. So, would deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc - and accepting the US regulatory regime in order to get one with the Yanks - make up for what we lose trade-wise by quitting the Customs Union? It's hard to see how that is the case.

    Aus/NZ/Can/USA GDP: $21.5 trn
    EU27 GDP: $15.3 trn
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited November 2017

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    I think that is completely the wrong way around. Staying in the Customs Union removes any ability to make our own trade deals but does not give us access to the Single Market. It is the very worst of solutions.

    Doesn't that depend on what kind of trade deals we could negotiate by not being in the Customs Union?

    Of all the non-European nations in the world with bigger economies than ours, Australia has a free trade deal with them all. We have a free trade deal with none of them.

    I am pretty sure we are about to have one with Japan.

    If we replicated the deals the Aussies have, would they leave us in a better position than the one we have now as part of the Customs Union?

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    If it were true that we were currently shackled to a protectionist bloc that inhibited our global trade, then Brexit might have some upsides. Unfortunately it isn't true. The Brexiteers have made the fatal mistake of believing their own propaganda.
  • Options

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.

    Yep, not being in it only makes sense if we can do better on our own. So, would deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc - and accepting the US regulatory regime in order to get one with the Yanks - make up for what we lose trade-wise by quitting the Customs Union? It's hard to see how that is the case.

    Aus/NZ/Can/USA GDP: $21.5 trn
    EU27 GDP: $15.3 trn

    We have a trade deal with Canada, though, and are about to get one with Japan. Australia is also prioritising a deal with the EU over one with us.

  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    Don't you find it strange that the European countries that are outside the EU choose to be part of the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    Don't you find it strange that the European countries that are outside the EU choose to be part of the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union?
    They don't get given a choice.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.

    Yep, not being in it only makes sense if we can do better on our own. So, would deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc - and accepting the US regulatory regime in order to get one with the Yanks - make up for what we lose trade-wise by quitting the Customs Union? It's hard to see how that is the case.

    Aus/NZ/Can/USA GDP: $21.5 trn
    EU27 GDP: $15.3 trn

    We have a trade deal with Canada, though, and are about to get one with Japan. Australia is also prioritising a deal with the EU over one with us.

    Well we haven't left yet ;)
  • Options

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    Don't you find it strange that the European countries that are outside the EU choose to be part of the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union?
    They don't get given a choice.
    Not so. They could do as some suggest here and leave the Single Market so they can join the Customs Union if they so wished. The point being they see the downsides of being in the Customs Union and the benefits of being in the Single Market.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    He didn't want an attack to have occurred, but if one had taken place he wanted it to have been committed by a certain type of person. They're not the same thing.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    He didn't want an attack to have occurred, but if one had taken place he wanted it to have been committed by a certain type of person. They're not the same thing.
    Apologist.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    He didn't want an attack to have occurred, but if one had taken place he wanted it to have been committed by a certain type of person. They're not the same thing.
    Apologist.
    Sorry?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited November 2017

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    Don't you find it strange that the European countries that are outside the EU choose to be part of the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union?
    They already have a customs infrastructure. Those who pine for a FTA with anyone else, the longing is almost a romantic one.

    I read somewhere that the average tariff between the EU and US via WTO is approx. 3%. That's the great incentive !

    EU and China operate on WTO basis. Who is the biggest exporter of manufactured goods to China ? Germany. They did not need an FTA.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.

    On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.

    More accurately, it was a premature ejaculation.

    Given we have had 4 major terrorist incidents in London and Manchester already this year I don't think we can afford to be quite so flippant. There were certainly many people in the area earlier convinced it was terrorists and we await further investigation

    Tommy wanted it to be a terrorist attack. He actually wanted an atrocity to have been committed, for people to have been killed or maimed. He was so excited he could not wait to comment. He was aroused. Now he is humiliated. Good.

    He didn't want an attack to have occurred, but if one had taken place he wanted it to have been committed by a certain type of person. They're not the same thing.
    Apologist.
    Sorry?
    I'm surprised he didn't call you a fascist ;)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.

    Thanks.

    Get your institution to invest... :wink:
    I don't think I have an institution!
    I thought you were still actively working in the City?
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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,928

    Off-topic:

    How the heck can this not be manslaughter?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-42110619

    He'd been taking cocaine for 18 hours before the crash, was driving at up to 117 MPH, and killed the two young men whilst driving along the verge on the wrong side of the road.

    "Death by dangerous driving," ffs.

    How is that not death by dangerous driving?
    IIRC death by dangerous driving carries pretty much the same range of sentencing possibilities that manslaughter does. It’s effectively manslaughter by vehicle.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    It's Thanksgiving here, which means football.....

    Another Cowboys defeat.

    Nice...
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm pretty sure that even if we stay in the SIngle market via EEA/EFTA, we won't be in the Customs Union.

    Correct, but there could possibly be a different option, which would be to negotiate a customs union with the EU, but not remain in the Single Market (i.e. something akin to what Turkey has).

    My personal view is that this might not have been a bad option; it would make the Irish border problem much easier, and it would mean our car manufacturing industry wouldn't get clobbered by disruption to the supply chain. We wouldn't have had to accept freedom of movement. The downsides would be no trade deals other than those the EU negotiated for its own purposes, and probably nothing on services.

    Of course, no-one can know whether our EU friends would have played ball, since they refused to discuss it at the time when it would have been useful to have the conversation. Too late now, I think, and in any case without a big majority the PM isn't in a position to consider it.
    This is what I have been saying for months. Those who clamour for separate trade deals, what will they actually bring ? FTA with Australia, New Zealand so that our farmers are bankrupted ? What will the USA export to us that we cannot buy now ? What will we export to China that we cannot do so today ?

    Customs Union relieves us of a huge administrative burden. Literally saves billions of pounds annually apart from setting up costs.
    Don't you find it strange that the European countries that are outside the EU choose to be part of the Single Market but not part of the Customs Union?
    They already have a customs infrastructure. Those who pine for a FTA with anyone else, the longing is almost a romantic one.

    I read somewhere that the average tariff between the EU and US via WTO is approx. 3%. That's the great incentive !

    EU and China operate on WTO basis. Who is the biggest exporter of manufactured goods to China ? Germany. They did not need an FTA.
    So is your point that WTO doesn't matter? In which case why does it matter with Europe? If its good enough for you for the world's most populace nation and most significantly growing economy in the globe then why is it not good enough for our own sclerotic continent?
This discussion has been closed.