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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907

    So has Davis redacted a load of blank sheets of paper to make people think that these documents actually exist?

    Perhaps Davis will next claim that if it were definitively established that these sectoral impact assessments do not exist/are very light on details - well that could prejudice negotiations and undermine the UK position.

    Therefore to maintain Britain's negotiating position he must act in such a way as to leave their existence and contents uncertain.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    rkrkrk said:

    So has Davis redacted a load of blank sheets of paper to make people think that these documents actually exist?

    Perhaps Davis will next claim that if it were definitively established that these sectoral impact assessments do not exist/are very light on details - well that could prejudice negotiations and undermine the UK position.

    Therefore to maintain Britain's negotiating position he must act in such a way as to leave their existence and contents uncertain.
    He'll end up in a bunker in Whitehall ranting on about how the CEO of BMW will arrive at Angela Mekel's office at any moment to save the day...
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    rkrkrk said:

    So has Davis redacted a load of blank sheets of paper to make people think that these documents actually exist?

    Perhaps Davis will next claim that if it were definitively established that these sectoral impact assessments do not exist/are very light on details - well that could prejudice negotiations and undermine the UK position.

    Therefore to maintain Britain's negotiating position he must act in such a way as to leave their existence and contents uncertain.
    Schrodinger's Assessments?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    rkrkrk said:

    So either David Davis lied to Parliament or Robin Walker just did.

    Might be time to back DD as next out of the cabinet.

    FFS. I really thought I was on to a winner with Damian Green.
    If there was a critical mass, he'd have gone by now....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    edited November 2017


    I don't see how you conclude that. Brexit is a huge problem for the Irish, not of their making. The British preferred approach is no border, but they don't have a Scooby how to get there given the insistence on dropping freedom of movement and given the EU's position about what that means for the single market.

    So the Irish, at a time which they believe maximises their negotiating clout, are insisting that before Britain starts to get into the discussions it wants to get into about trade, it must clarify how it sees the border working in practice with minimal impact. The Irish do not want to see a hard border across the island legitimised by the EU. It is recognised in the Good Friday Agreement that the Irish have a legitimate interest in the affairs of northern Ireland. They would much prefer to see northern Ireland given special treatment. The northern Irish themselves seem to think the same, on balance, so far as the limited polling evidence shows.

    It is questionable from an Irish perspective whether it is worse to have the economic hit of a disorderly Brexit with an unlegitimised hard border or the lesser but still substantial economic hit of an orderly hard Brexit with a legitimised hard border. But you can't say the position makes zero sense. The contempt which the British have shown for the Irish on the question of the border and the whole question of the status of northern Ireland has been extremely ill-advised.

    To repeat what I've already said in a different way, yes, of course Brexit is a huge problem for the Irish, and not of their making, but it will be a hugely less serious problem for them if the EU and UK get on with agreeing a comprehensive trade deal, as the UK have been proposing for the past year or more. So you'd have thought they'd be pushing for that, not obstructing it (and that was, indeed, the position until this newbie became Taoiseach).
    You seem to be missing the non-economic driver for the Irish here.
    I think there's a bit more to it. The border is important to the Irish but above all they want Soft Brexit (SM + CU). They can make that option easier for the UK by not cooperating on Hard Brexit negotiations. The Irish interest isn't quite aligned with, say, the German one. The rest of the EU is probably OK with a Hard Brexit trade deal that gives the EU what it wants on goods (those German cars!) while conceding nothing on British strengths such as services. The Irish will be hoping that the British will put Hard Brexit into the too difficult basket. Closing down options could work, but it's a risk. What is sure is that the Irish have decided to add the pressure.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    No time for longer post today - but have David Davis's leadership aspirations taken a big hit today? Feels this is a mess of his own making and he's run away when the heat is on.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Danny565 said:
    Despite the Taoiseach being this week's object of the Brexiters' Two Minutes Hate, this is good news for the Leave negotiations. The Republic of Ireland government won't need to play to the gallery as much and they will be less distracted by domestic affairs.
    Does anyone familiar with the situation know if this resignation will now stop the whistle-blower wrecking-ball that has flying around Irish politics?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Looks to me as if Mr Rees-Mogg is more interested in the job of Speaker than that of leader of the Conservative party. Smart move: the security of tenure looks much better.

    He's making the canniest moves of any of the people associated with hard Brexit to distance himself from the train wreck.
    Mogg wants a minority Labour government forced by the SNP and LDs to stay permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place so he can take over as Tory leader of the opposition on a clear hard Brexit platform.

    On current polls he may well get it.
    On current polls that might be a popular government!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rkrkrk said:

    So has Davis redacted a load of blank sheets of paper to make people think that these documents actually exist?

    Perhaps Davis will next claim that if it were definitively established that these sectoral impact assessments do not exist/are very light on details - well that could prejudice negotiations and undermine the UK position.

    Therefore to maintain Britain's negotiating position he must act in such a way as to leave their existence and contents uncertain.
    Schrodinger's Assessments?
    Is David Davis's career dead or alive?, lets open that box...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_P said:
    Has DD stolen the SNP's playbook? I seem to recall they spent money on legal fees to prevent the publication of reports that didn't exist...
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    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited November 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Has DD stolen the SNP's playbook? I seem to recall they spent money on legal fees to prevent the publication of reports that didn't exist...
    Yup on legal advice on the automaticity of an independent Scotland remaining in the EU that didn’t exist.

    http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/10/snp-eu-legal-advice_n_4075966.html
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    Looks to me as if Mr Rees-Mogg is more interested in the job of Speaker than that of leader of the Conservative party. Smart move: the security of tenure looks much better.

    He's making the canniest moves of any of the people associated with hard Brexit to distance himself from the train wreck.
    Mogg wants a minority Labour government forced by the SNP and LDs to stay permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place so he can take over as Tory leader of the opposition on a clear hard Brexit platform.

    On current polls he may well get it.
    On current polls that might be a popular government!
    For a month until Corbyn tries to implement his economic agenda and drags down the LDs and SNP with him giving the Tories free rein in opposition while making inroads with working class Labour Leavers infuriated by the government betraying their Leave vote by leaving free movement in place.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907

    Scott_P said:
    Has DD stolen the SNP's playbook? I seem to recall they spent money on legal fees to prevent the publication of reports that didn't exist...
    Yup on legal advice on the automaticity of an independent Scotland remaining in the EU that didn’t exist.

    http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/10/snp-eu-legal-advice_n_4075966.html
    That episode alone proves the value of Freedom of Information legislation in my eyes.
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    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    HYUFD is a one man Tribunal of the Holy Central Office of the Tory Inquisition.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Jacob Rees Mogg has no interest in a Tory government reaching a deal with the EU, either ideologically or as part of his political ambitions to be a future Tory leader
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    Of course, JRM is a monarchist and Unionist and Brexiteer. The fact he is not pragmatic and has no interest in a deal with the EU does not change that.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    HYUFD is a one man Tribunal of the Holy Central Office of the Tory Inquisition.
    Taking lessons from Momentum who are currently rooting out Blairite councillors
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/935316800144683008
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    Of course, JRM is a monarchist and Unionist and Brexiteer. The fact he is not pragmatic and has no interest in a deal with the EU does not change that.
    But he's not CoE. Surely that's a red flag?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    Has DD stolen the SNP's playbook? I seem to recall they spent money on legal fees to prevent the publication of reports that didn't exist...
    Yup on legal advice on the automaticity of an independent Scotland remaining in the EU that didn’t exist.

    http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/10/snp-eu-legal-advice_n_4075966.html
    That episode alone proves the value of Freedom of Information legislation in my eyes.
    It does.

    Alongside the FOIs asking local councils what plans and preparations they have made for the Zombie Apocalypse.
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    tpfkar said:

    No time for longer post today - but have David Davis's leadership aspirations taken a big hit today? Feels this is a mess of his own making and he's run away when the heat is on.

    It's certainly a mess entirely of the government's making, and DD is the minister responsible, so in that sense, yes. Difficult to say whether it is just a storm in a teacup, though; there's certainly plenty of grandstanding going on, and ultimately there's unlikely to be anything terribly interesting in these reports: they will confirm what we know already.

    On one point the government is being unfairly criticised, however: there is a big difference between assessments covering 58 sectors, and 58 sector assessments. That difference explains most of the alleged 'inconsistencies' between various statements made by ministers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    HYUFD is a one man Tribunal of the Holy Central Office of the Tory Inquisition.
    Taking lessons from Momentum who are currently rooting out Blairite councillors
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/935316800144683008
    Then please Leave the Tory party for all our sakes.

    We’re a broad church and we don’t want to be like Momentum thank you very much.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    Of course, JRM is a monarchist and Unionist and Brexiteer. The fact he is not pragmatic and has no interest in a deal with the EU does not change that.
    But he's not CoE. Surely that's a red flag?
    Of course not, IDS was Catholic. Tories were also originally more sympathetic to the Catholic James IInd than the Whigs
  • Options

    tpfkar said:

    No time for longer post today - but have David Davis's leadership aspirations taken a big hit today? Feels this is a mess of his own making and he's run away when the heat is on.

    It's certainly a mess entirely of the government's making, and DD is the minister responsible, so in that sense, yes. Difficult to say whether it is just a storm in a teacup, though; there's certainly plenty of grandstanding going on, and ultimately there's unlikely to be anything terribly interesting in these reports: they will confirm what we know already.

    On one point the government is being unfairly criticised, however: there is a big difference between assessments covering 58 sectors, and 58 sector assessments. That difference explains most of the alleged 'inconsistencies' between various statements made by ministers.
    Bad day for Gavin Williamson too. He was the genius behind ignoring Opposition Debate votes.
  • Options

    tpfkar said:

    No time for longer post today - but have David Davis's leadership aspirations taken a big hit today? Feels this is a mess of his own making and he's run away when the heat is on.

    It's certainly a mess entirely of the government's making, and DD is the minister responsible, so in that sense, yes. Difficult to say whether it is just a storm in a teacup, though; there's certainly plenty of grandstanding going on, and ultimately there's unlikely to be anything terribly interesting in these reports: they will confirm what we know already.

    On one point the government is being unfairly criticised, however: there is a big difference between assessments covering 58 sectors, and 58 sector assessments. That difference explains most of the alleged 'inconsistencies' between various statements made by ministers.
    Bad day for Gavin Williamson too. He was the genius behind ignoring Opposition Debate votes.
    He should have heeded Alastair's excellent article on the subject.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if they lose?
    They have been storing up trouble for themselves, as I noted earlier in the month:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/05/how-the-government-is-imperilling-its-brexit-bill/
    Parliament has already voted for the EU referendum and voted to trigger Article 50 to Leave the EU after most voters in that referendum voted to Leave the EU. All this reports guff is just largely diehard Remainers trying to sabotage Brexit.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a diehard Remainer trying to sabotage Brexit?

    Who knew? WHO KNEW?
    Does Jacob Rees-Mogg pass the HYUFD Tory purity test?
    HYUFD is a one man Tribunal of the Holy Central Office of the Tory Inquisition.
    Taking lessons from Momentum who are currently rooting out Blairite councillors
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/935316800144683008
    Then please Leave the Tory party for all our sakes.

    We’re a broad church and we don’t want to be like Momentum thank you very much.
    As I have said as long as you are a Monarchist and Unionist you are safe from the HYUFD inquisition
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    NEW THREAD

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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Scott_P said:

    @abradacabla: congrats to Brian Cox for ensuring the "start a new centrist party" trend is now deader than disco https://twitter.com/colinbrown00/status/935429695767744513

    There is a very strong argument that scientists are massively under-represented in politics and in political decision making.

    Our greatest ever PM read Chemistry at university, so huzzah for more scientists in politics
    Attlee didn't read chemistry at Oxford! IIRC he was a Lawyer!;)
    Attlee was evil or incompetent, or both, he has the blood of two million Indians and Pakistanis on his hands.
    I seem to remember from one of my researches in the period, that the UK government was under pressure from the USA government to give up the Empire. Plus many in the Government were beginning to recognise, that after WW2, there just wasn't the UK military will to enforce the will of Westminster on the colonies, who quite honestly, had become less than impressed with the British martial spirit and with a few honourable exceptions, the British military and political leaders.

    You just have a look at how fast we got out of Palestine, and while we fought in Korea, the US wasn't best pleased with our (and the French and Israeli) behaviour of the Suez debacle, continuing up to getting our backsides getting kicked out of Aden. Malaya, until we got proper leadership was a farce, and our behaviour in Cyprus, Kenya and other countries was, not really of the best.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    welshowl said:

    Danny565 said:
    Despite the Taoiseach being this week's object of the Brexiters' Two Minutes Hate, this is good news for the Leave negotiations. The Republic of Ireland government won't need to play to the gallery as much and they will be less distracted by domestic affairs.

    Now the UK government just needs to come up with something even vestigially coherent as an approach to the Irish border.
    Serious question: How do the Andorras, Liechtensteins, San Marinos of this world work, and other such constitutional oddities, vis a vis the Single Market? Anyone know?

    Doesn't Liechtenstein actually have control of freedom of movement (via a tiny quota per annum?) for instance even though it's in the EEA? Now it's only a pinprick on the map with a nice castle, and a world leading position in the false teeth market (no, really), but it's funny how the EU can get "creative" when it wants to.

    We all need a bit of a Nelsonian blind eye both ways round when it comes to NI
    Andorra has hard borders with Spain and France. It's not in the EU, the single market, customs union or Schengen, but it does use the Euro (with the ECB's blessing).

    Monaco and and San Marino have long had completely open borders with France and Spain respectively and has carried them into the EU/Schengen era. They are part of the single market and customs union de facto if not de jure and both use the Euro again with ECB permission. However, whilst their borders are open, this doesn't mean that there is true FoM: you still need to get a residence permit to move to Monaco for instance.

    Liechtenstein does indeed have concessions on FoM because of its size (ICBW but I think Luxembourg has, or had, some concessions to do with limiting non-Luxembourgeouis right to vote in local elections on size and proportion of non-locals grounds too).
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So basically we pay until end of 2021 - ie the budget round.

    Over the next 10 years after that we will save around £200 Bn.

    Ireland silliness will be dropped by the EU they only ever cared about the money.
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