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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May agrees €100 billion Brexit divorce bill with the E

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  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Time for a peasants revolt?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    A grand for Chrome OS (glorified mobile OS)! A bit steep for a device that sits somewhere between an iPad Pro and a proper laptop in terms of what you can do with it.

    Read this first for an idea of the limitations you'll be up against... https://www.reasontouse.com/computer/chromebook-limitations-for-an-average-user/
  • Options

    It appears that polling companies haven't read the work of Daniel Kahneman. If they had, they would never run such a test nor be confused by the "perverse" result.

    There are very few things that I think are of such universal benefit they should be taught to everyone (and particularly, anyone who is going to take any role with serious responsibility) but Kahneman/Tversky/cognitive biases would be one of them.

    To be fair, this result should be obvious to pretty much anybody anyway, but if you have read Kahneman then it would be especially so.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    A grand for Chrome OS (glorified mobile OS)! A bit steep for a device that sits somewhere between an iPad Pro and a proper laptop in terms of what you can do with it.

    Read this first for an idea of the limitations you'll be up against... https://www.reasontouse.com/computer/chromebook-limitations-for-an-average-user/
    One word: Crouton.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    So it looks like:

    (i) we're leaving the EU in accordance with the Art. 50 timetable

    (ii) there will be an OK trade deal (or the EU don't get our money they have already spent)

    (iii) there has been serious shit ongoing in the background - whilst a whole lot of chaff was thrown around to obscure this

    (iv) the Remainers thought the chaff was the serious shit. It really wasn't

    (v) the price seems high - but ball-park for exiting. Those who complain about the price we'll have to pay should look to those who have silently signed up to those liabiliites to the EU for decades

    (vi) Remainers now need to rely on arch Brexiteers derailing Brexit because it is too expensive - and thereby continuing to pay the tens of billions, year after year. Good luck with that.



    That sounds rather like what @Robert Smithson was telling us what was going on.
  • Options

    It appears that polling companies haven't read the work of Daniel Kahneman. If they had, they would never run such a test nor be confused by the "perverse" result.

    There are very few things that I think are of such universal benefit they should be taught to everyone (and particularly, anyone who is going to take any role with serious responsibility) but Kahneman/Tversky/cognitive biases would be one of them.

    To be fair, this result should be obvious to pretty much anybody anyway, but if you have read Kahneman then it would be especially so.
    Clearly the numpties at the polling company haven't and didn't occur to them. They couldn't have setup a more perfect Kahneman/Tversky test if they tried.

    BTW, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, that tells the story of their relationship is very good read.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    https://shop.itxchange.com/OA_HTML/products-Lenovo-ThinkPad-X27020HN0012UK-01-892856.jsp
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trumpton:

    The Mike Flynn story is becoming ever more deadly, for him, by the day..

    https://twitter.com/markseibel/status/935643210742890503
    Flynn was an agent of a hostile state and an agent of one that can best be described as rather difficult.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    No idea where 100 billion is coming from. Both Sky and BBC reporting 40 billion pounds
    It's a €100 billion gross commitment that is paid down according to a schedule to be agreed. The actual amount paid will be at a discount, so the total actual amount is around €50 billion. So far just as the EU has always demanded.

    The new feature is that the discount will be applied as each amount becomes due rather calculated in advance. This ambiguity allows the UK government to predict a very large discount and a relatively smaller final figure. By the time it all gets paid off everyone will have lost interest, even if the actual discounts aren't as high as the UK government initially predicted.
    I don't think that's true.

    It's the time value of money that's the issue. Paying €1 in 2017 is very different to paying €1 in 2067.
    For example the Reste a Liquider, which is the big part of this has commitments for future funding, not all which will actually happen. So rather than coming up with a concrete net figure, they are saying, it's gross but we will calculate the discount for cancelled commitments later. Pension liabilities are calculated on a very conservative actuarial policy, so the UK can hope to pay less when the pension payments become due. The discounts aren't bigger after negotiation, but the deliberate lack of clarity on them allows the UK government to propose they are bigger, which allows them to reduce the headline figure, which is what they care about. The EU is fine with that. They get the commitments they wanted.
    Having said that, many of those discounts were always going to be uncertain until the payments became due. So the €60 billion figure would always have been a fluid one. The point is, the UK government can low ball the headline figure by loading up the estimated discounts and the EU is happy for them to do so.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:

    You have to be pretty financially illiterate to think that £10-£20 Bn pa annum in perpetuity is better than a one off £50Bn bill spread over decades..

    We haven't even begun discussing the future relationship, and how much it will cost us.
    Yes, so far as I can make out the agreed bill is just for current liabilities, anything after 1 April 2019 is not included.

    It seems May's negotiating style is to agree to the EU position on money and on the ECJ having a continuing role. Have the EU27 conceded on anything?

  • Options
    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    I've been going through a garage full of boxes from my deceased brother-in-law's estate over the weekend. Found an Atari 2600, plus a load of games. Plus a Sega Megadrive and games, and a Spectrum 128k with tapedeck. It's gonna be geek heaven for a while, if only i can get a modern telly to connect!
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    It appears that polling companies haven't read the work of Daniel Kahneman. If they had, they would never run such a test nor be confused by the "perverse" result.

    There are very few things that I think are of such universal benefit they should be taught to everyone (and particularly, anyone who is going to take any role with serious responsibility) but Kahneman/Tversky/cognitive biases would be one of them.

    To be fair, this result should be obvious to pretty much anybody anyway, but if you have read Kahneman then it would be especially so.
    Clearly the numpties at the polling company haven't and didn't occur to them. They couldn't have setup a more perfect Kahneman/Tversky test if they tried.

    BTW, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, that tells the story of their relationship is very good read.
    +1

    Lewis has the ability to make his non fiction more gripping than fiction; even HFT.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for a peasants revolt?

    Don't Brexit and Trump count now then?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    I've been going through a garage full of boxes from my deceased brother-in-law's estate over the weekend. Found an Atari 2600, plus a load of games. Plus a Sega Megadrive and games, and a Spectrum 128k with tapedeck. It's gonna be geek heaven for a while, if only i can get a modern telly to connect!
    Does it have the cool Atari joystick, or the annoying pads?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    Mortimer said:

    It appears that polling companies haven't read the work of Daniel Kahneman. If they had, they would never run such a test nor be confused by the "perverse" result.

    There are very few things that I think are of such universal benefit they should be taught to everyone (and particularly, anyone who is going to take any role with serious responsibility) but Kahneman/Tversky/cognitive biases would be one of them.

    To be fair, this result should be obvious to pretty much anybody anyway, but if you have read Kahneman then it would be especially so.
    Clearly the numpties at the polling company haven't and didn't occur to them. They couldn't have setup a more perfect Kahneman/Tversky test if they tried.

    BTW, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, that tells the story of their relationship is very good read.
    +1

    Lewis has the ability to make his non fiction more gripping than fiction; even HFT.
    Here's the best description of High Frequency Trading you will ever read: http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2013/07/clever-dicks.html
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    You have to be pretty financially illiterate to think that £10-£20 Bn pa annum in perpetuity is better than a one off £50Bn bill spread over decades..

    We haven't even begun discussing the future relationship, and how much it will cost us.
    We haven’t begun paying either. No deal no money.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    Roger said:

    If this vast sum turns out to be remotely accurate and Boris has a shred of integrity then he will resign forthwith.

    He has the integrity of a Praying Mantis so don't hold your breath
    I was bitten by one of those in Dubrovnik this year. It jumped out of nowhere and grabbed a finger and would not let go.
    May I add my good wishes @BigG for a speedy recuperation. Hopefully you didn't dislodge any stitches watching United!
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    I've been going through a garage full of boxes from my deceased brother-in-law's estate over the weekend. Found an Atari 2600, plus a load of games. Plus a Sega Megadrive and games, and a Spectrum 128k with tapedeck. It's gonna be geek heaven for a while, if only i can get a modern telly to connect!
    Does it have the cool Atari joystick, or the annoying pads?
    Joystick! With Galaxians! I remember my very first pay packet, I spent 12 quid on that and a few other arcade games in the Curzon cinema in Loughborough. I earned 25 quid that week. I suddenly feel really old.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.

    How long does it take to reload Wordpress...
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    No idea where 100 billion is coming from. Both Sky and BBC reporting 40 billion pounds
    It's a €100 billion gross commitment that is paid down according to a schedule to be agreed. The actual amount paid will be at a discount, so the total actual amount is around €50 billion. So far just as the EU has always demanded.

    The new feature is that the discount will be applied as each amount becomes due rather calculated in advance. This ambiguity allows the UK government to predict a very large discount and a relatively smaller final figure. By the time it all gets paid off everyone will have lost interest, even if the actual discounts aren't as high as the UK government initially predicted.
    I don't think that's true.

    It's the time value of money that's the issue. Paying €1 in 2017 is very different to paying €1 in 2067.
    For example the Reste a Liquider, which is the big part of this has commitments for future funding, not all which will actually happen. So rather than coming up with a concrete net figure, they are saying, it's gross but we will calculate the discount for cancelled commitments later. Pension liabilities are calculated on a very conservative actuarial policy, so the UK can hope to pay less when the pension payments become due. The discounts aren't bigger after negotiation, but the deliberate lack of clarity on them allows the UK government to propose they are bigger, which allows them to reduce the headline figure, which is what they care about. The EU is fine with that. They get the commitments they wanted.
    Having said that, many of those discounts were always going to be uncertain until the payments became due. So the €60 billion figure would always have been a fluid one. The point is, the UK government can low ball the headline figure by loading up the estimated discounts and the EU is happy for them to do so.

    The UK government has agreed to provide what the EU required. This is very good news. It also looks like the ECJ red line has been quietly dropped. That is tremendous news. The Irish border remains problematic, but all we need is progress - the concessions may buy some goodwill on that front. If that’s the case the loons will not get their No Deal. And that is the best news of all.

  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    None of the people who disputed Osborne halving the EU bill will fall for that, surely...

    I've somewhat lost track of the logical contortions. The people who were criticising the PM for not agreeing the exit bill now seem to be criticising her for agreeing it, and the people who were saying we shouldn't pay a bean have now manoeuvred her into a position where she is too weak to resist paying the reparations. Meanwhile the Irish are threatening to derail things because they don't want things derailed, the LibDems want a referendum on an option which doesn't exist, and Labour (whose policy is to leave the Single Market and Customs Union) are complaining that the government hasn't thought through the problems of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Only the SNP are being consistent, but since they are consistently obstructive that doesn't help much.
    +1
    I'm sure that 'the Irish' will be most gratified to be put on a par with UK political parties.

    "Why can't a Paddy be more like a Brit?"
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Apropos of nothing, my very lefty environmentalist chum - who hates Tories with a deep loathing - is loving what Gove is doing in his current role.

    My chum is finding it all very confusing....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat other than instantly flick between an OS I don't want to use and one I want to.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    Don't you do your CUDA in the cloud?
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    Don't you do your CUDA in the cloud?
    Yes, but not when I am prototyping ideas.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,760
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    Proposition: over the past five years laptops have gotten worse.

    Argument: development over this period has focussed on form factor, operating system and thinness and neglected speed, resulting in flatter, wider and slower units. A netbook from the early teens would have a faster chip and a smaller width than your Pixelbook, and the trend towards internal field-replaceable unit batteries instead of external customer-replacable unit batteries has created laptops that last longer but cannot be forcibly restarted without a screwdriver and violating the warranty.

    Thought: If I got a second hand Samsung netbook from 2011/2 and slapped 2GB Ram and 500gb SSD in it I would have a laptop that exceeds your Pixelbook in all respects except Ram (netbooks were limited to 2GB) and battery life for about a quarter of the price. It would be thicker and heavier but narrower and could be realistically used on a crowded (London commuter train at peak time) train.

    Other thought: in the same way that cars devolved post-war and became flatter and more difficult to sit in (a trend that was only recently reversed with the rise of the SUV), laptops have sacrificed functionality to style.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    edited November 2017
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    Proposition: over the past five years laptops have gotten worse.

    Argument: development over this period has focussed on form factor, operating system and thinness and neglected speed, resulting in flatter, wider and slower units. A netbook from the early teens would have a faster chip and a smaller width than your Pixelbook, and the trend towards internal field-replaceable unit batteries instead of external customer-replacable unit batteries has created laptops that last longer but cannot be forcibly restarted without a screwdriver and violating the warranty.

    Thought: If I got a second hand Samsung netbook from 2011/2 and slapped 2GB Ram and 500gb SSD in it I would have a laptop that exceeds your Pixelbook in all respects except Ram (netbooks were limited to 2GB) and battery life for about a quarter of the price. It would be thicker and heavier but narrower and could be realistically used on a crowded (London commuter train at peak time) train.

    Other thought: in the same way that cars devolved post-war and became flatter and more difficult to sit in (a trend that was only recently reversed with the rise of the SUV), laptops have sacrificed functionality to style.
    The Pixelbook has a seventh generation Core i5, compared to (picking a Netbook released in 2012) an Intel Atom N2600. It has 8gb of RAM and a 128gb SSD. Now, it only has Intel integrated graphics. But modern Intel integrated graphics are fine. Using Steam (under Crouton), pretty much any AAA title from 2012 is perfectly playable.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    Don't you do your CUDA in the cloud?
    Yes, but not when I am prototyping ideas.
    You can run OpenCL on the Pixelbook. (Not that I have. But it's nice to know it's there.)
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Roger said:

    If this vast sum turns out to be remotely accurate and Boris has a shred of integrity then he will resign forthwith.

    He has the integrity of a Praying Mantis so don't hold your breath
    I was bitten by one of those in Dubrovnik this year. It jumped out of nowhere and grabbed a finger and would not let go.
    May I add my good wishes @BigG for a speedy recuperation. Hopefully you didn't dislodge any stitches watching United!
    Thanks Dixie - mixture of gentle walking and resting with a large number of pain killers helps but no need to be silly being retired and with a wonderful wife and family to help.

    United's goals were all high quality but you have to admire Watford's late surge. Good game and stitches in place as far as I can feel.

    Hope Sam comes and rescues your Everton
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Absolutely. In all seriousness, I kinda of agree with RCS, if, a) your needs are quite restricted and / or b) you know somebody who will do the twiddling to put Linux on there and the user will be happy with that.

    The higher end 2017 Chromebooks are nice bits of kit.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Also, I got sick of Windows PCs and laptops taking 4 years to boot up after a few months of mild use.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    edited November 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Absolutely. In all seriousness, I kinda of agree with RCS, if, a) your needs are quite restricted and / or b) you know somebody who will do the twiddling to put Linux on there and the user will be happy with that.

    The higher end 2017 Chromebooks are nice bits of kit.
    I had Ubuntu on my Pixelbook within an hour of getting it. Install Ubuntu was as simple as:

    Ctrl+Alt+T
    shell
    sudo sh -e ~/Downloads/crouton -t xfce
    sudo startxfce4

    Edit to add, you need to go to the Crouton Sourceforge page and download it first. That took a good 18 or 19 seconds. Including Googling for "crouton".
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Also, I got sick of Windows PCs and laptops taking 4 years to boot up after a few months of mild use.
    Win 10 + M.2 SSD drive boot very quickly....yes Rob at the back, put your hand down, not as fast as a Chromebook.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    Don't you do your CUDA in the cloud?
    Yes, but not when I am prototyping ideas.
    You can run OpenCL on the Pixelbook. (Not that I have. But it's nice to know it's there.)
    The Coldplay of GPU acceleration....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Absolutely. In all seriousness, I kinda of agree with RCS, if, a) your needs are quite restricted and / or b) you know somebody who will do the twiddling to put Linux on there and the user will be happy with that.

    The higher end 2017 Chromebooks are nice bits of kit.
    I had Ubuntu on my Pixelbook within an hour of getting it. Install Ubuntu was as simple as:

    Ctrl+Alt+T
    shell
    sudo sh -e ~/Downloads/crouton -t xfce
    sudo startxfce4

    Edit to add, you need to go to the Crouton Sourceforge page and download it first. That took a good 18 or 19 seconds. Including Googling for "crouton".
    Yeah, but you realise for 90% of the population, they will google Crouton, go to Tesco's to get some pre-made ones and wonder why throwing them at the keyboard isn't doing anything.

    And even if they get to Ubuntu, they will be WTF is this...where is Microsoft Office....
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    The Radiohead of "laptops".
    That bad?
    LOL...Mrs Urquhart has one and is very happy with it. If I go on it (as somebody who spends their days coding), I instantly puke like accidentally if I was forced to hear Radiohead's Glastonbury performance again.
    One word: Crouton.
    I'll stick to my dual booted Dell Ultrabook thanks...
    My Pixelbook takes... ooohhh... half a second to switch between ChromeOS/Android and Ubuntu.
    But no nVidia GPU = no CUDA = me not being able to do diddly-squat.
    I guess it all depends on what you need. I get by with a chromebook, and a Samsung S8 mobile phone. My sons all swear by mac books and iPhones. I just can't justify spending over a grand on a laptop, but then I'm not using my chromebook for anything too complicated.
    Also, I got sick of Windows PCs and laptops taking 4 years to boot up after a few months of mild use.
    Win 10 + M.2 SSD drive boot very quickly....yes Rob at the back, put your hand down, not as fast as a Chromebook.
    My last Windows machine was XP. We bought my 75 year old mum a Windows laptop a few years ago- Windows 7 or 8 or something. She barely used it, and after a few months it was slower at loading than a ZX Spectrum using a pirate tape. I just got sick of Microsoft wanting me to spend a fortune, and the likes of Norton continually scaring my old mum into forking out 150 quid for their full antivirus suite. I genuinely spent a year or so after my old XP machine just using a Samsung tablet. The Chromebook is limited, but perfect for what I need.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited November 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    It appears that polling companies haven't read the work of Daniel Kahneman. If they had, they would never run such a test nor be confused by the "perverse" result.

    There are very few things that I think are of such universal benefit they should be taught to everyone (and particularly, anyone who is going to take any role with serious responsibility) but Kahneman/Tversky/cognitive biases would be one of them.

    To be fair, this result should be obvious to pretty much anybody anyway, but if you have read Kahneman then it would be especially so.
    Clearly the numpties at the polling company haven't and didn't occur to them. They couldn't have setup a more perfect Kahneman/Tversky test if they tried.

    BTW, The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, that tells the story of their relationship is very good read.
    +1

    Lewis has the ability to make his non fiction more gripping than fiction; even HFT.
    Here's the best description of High Frequency Trading you will ever read: http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2013/07/clever-dicks.html
    :)
  • Options
    Scott_P said:
    Well that's not right - even Coldplay themselves admitted they were easy-listening Radiohead clones.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    Yeah, but you realise for 90% of the population, they will google Crouton, go to Tesco's to get some pre-made ones and wonder why throwing them at the keyboard isn't doing anything.

    And even if they get to Ubuntu, they will be WTF is this...where is Microsoft Office....

    The Android version of Office is pretty good now.

    I use Ubuntu for games and for programming. (I am writing a game that is a cross between Rogue, Gauntlet and Golf. It's called Rogue Golfer. It's very silly.)

    For people who aren't power users, the Pixelbook is awesome. For people who are power users, there's Crouton.

    It's only really rubbish for someone who wants a modern gaming laptop.

    (As an aside, if you google for "crouton", and I checked this with an incognito window on Chrome, the first three links are all about Linux on Chrome.)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,760
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I'm trying to find a laptop, under 11inch screen, clamshell form factor, expandable up to 4 or 8GB Ram, with an external battery. Can anybody recommend one?

    No.

    Sell all your other possessions and get a Pixelbook.
    Proposition: over the past five years laptops have gotten worse.

    Argument: development over this period has focussed on form factor, operating system and thinness and neglected speed, resulting in flatter, wider and slower units. A netbook from the early teens would have a faster chip and a smaller width than your Pixelbook, and the trend towards internal field-replaceable unit batteries instead of external customer-replacable unit batteries has created laptops that last longer but cannot be forcibly restarted without a screwdriver and violating the warranty.

    Thought: If I got a second hand Samsung netbook from 2011/2 and slapped 2GB Ram and 500gb SSD in it I would have a laptop that exceeds your Pixelbook in all respects except Ram (netbooks were limited to 2GB) and battery life for about a quarter of the price. It would be thicker and heavier but narrower and could be realistically used on a crowded (London commuter train at peak time) train.

    Other thought: in the same way that cars devolved post-war and became flatter and more difficult to sit in (a trend that was only recently reversed with the rise of the SUV), laptops have sacrificed functionality to style.
    The Pixelbook has a seventh generation Core i5, compared to (picking a Netbook released in 2012) an Intel Atom N2600. It has 8gb of RAM and a 128gb SSD. Now, it only has Intel integrated graphics. But modern Intel integrated graphics are fine. Using Steam (under Crouton), pretty much any AAA title from 2012 is perfectly playable.
    I suspect I'm going to get my arse smacked here 'cos our needs are different, but the chips are (broadly) comparable

    https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57

    I think your chip is better than the N2600 when it comes to graphics and gameplay, but the stuff I do on trains is not games but Excel, Powerpoint, SAS and (latterly) R on RStudio. So the need for a high-resolution screen and fast graphics is absent and the size issue is crucial: it has to be narrow so I can type two-handed on the seatback tray without sticking my elbows into the fat bloke sitting in the neighbouring seat. Although having said that, your Pixelbook (29cm x 22cm x 1cm) does meets the size params, but the 2011 netbook (approx 26 x 18 x 2) works better.

    Obvs a Pixelbook is outside my budget at the mo' but if I wait two/three years and get a refurb'd one, it should be doable, so thanks, I'll keep an eye out.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,760

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    Big G! How did the op go?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    edited November 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    GIN1138 said:


    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    http://bruegel.org/2017/03/the-uks-brexit-bill-what-are-the-possible-liabilities/

    They had another post later, where they concluded the net works out to 25bn euros if everything is interpreted in the most favourable manner for the UK, and 65bn for the most EU-favourable.

    This doesn't include transition payments, which would be around another 10bn/year.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    dixiedean said:

    Roger said:

    If this vast sum turns out to be remotely accurate and Boris has a shred of integrity then he will resign forthwith.

    He has the integrity of a Praying Mantis so don't hold your breath
    I was bitten by one of those in Dubrovnik this year. It jumped out of nowhere and grabbed a finger and would not let go.
    May I add my good wishes @BigG for a speedy recuperation. Hopefully you didn't dislodge any stitches watching United!
    Thanks Dixie - mixture of gentle walking and resting with a large number of pain killers helps but no need to be silly being retired and with a wonderful wife and family to help.

    United's goals were all high quality but you have to admire Watford's late surge. Good game and stitches in place as far as I can feel.

    Hope Sam comes and rescues your Everton
    Glad to hear it!
    re Everton I live in hope!
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The Pixelbook has a seventh generation Core i5, compared to (picking a Netbook released in 2012) an Intel Atom N2600. It has 8gb of RAM and a 128gb SSD. Now, it only has Intel integrated graphics. But modern Intel integrated graphics are fine. Using Steam (under Crouton), pretty much any AAA title from 2012 is perfectly playable.

    I suspect I'm going to get my arse smacked here 'cos our needs are different, but the chips are (broadly) comparable

    https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57

    I think your chip is better than the N2600 when it comes to graphics and gameplay, but the stuff I do on trains is not games but Excel, Powerpoint, SAS and (latterly) R on RStudio. So the need for a high-resolution screen and fast graphics is absent and the size issue is crucial: it has to be narrow so I can type two-handed on the seatback tray without sticking my elbows into the fat bloke sitting in the neighbouring seat. Although having said that, your Pixelbook (29cm x 22cm x 1cm) does meets the size params, but the 2011 netbook (approx 26 x 18 x 2) works better.

    Obvs a Pixelbook is outside my budget at the mo' but if I wait two/three years and get a refurb'd one, it should be doable, so thanks, I'll keep an eye out.
    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    viewcode said:

    I suspect I'm going to get my arse smacked here 'cos our needs are different, but the chips are (broadly) comparable

    https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57

    I think your chip is better than the N2600 when it comes to graphics and gameplay, but the stuff I do on trains is not games but Excel, Powerpoint, SAS and (latterly) R on RStudio. So the need for a high-resolution screen and fast graphics is absent and the size issue is crucial: it has to be narrow so I can type two-handed on the seatback tray without sticking my elbows into the fat bloke sitting in the neighbouring seat. Although having said that, your Pixelbook (29cm x 22cm x 1cm) does meets the size params, but the 2011 netbook (approx 26 x 18 x 2) works better.

    Obvs a Pixelbook is outside my budget at the mo' but if I wait two/three years and get a refurb'd one, it should be doable, so thanks, I'll keep an eye out.

    Cough.

    A modern Intel Core i5 is nothing like an Atom from 2012.

    When the N2600 was released in 2011, it cost $22.
    The i5 in the Pixelbook costs about $280 today.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The Pixelbook has a seventh generation Core i5, compared to (picking a Netbook released in 2012) an Intel Atom N2600. It has 8gb of RAM and a 128gb SSD. Now, it only has Intel integrated graphics. But modern Intel integrated graphics are fine. Using Steam (under Crouton), pretty much any AAA title from 2012 is perfectly playable.

    I suspect I'm going to get my arse smacked here 'cos our needs are different, but the chips are (broadly) comparable

    https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57

    I think your chip is better than the N2600 when it comes to graphics and gameplay, but the stuff I do on trains is not games but Excel, Powerpoint, SAS and (latterly) R on RStudio. So the need for a high-resolution screen and fast graphics is absent and the size issue is crucial: it has to be narrow so I can type two-handed on the seatback tray without sticking my elbows into the fat bloke sitting in the neighbouring seat. Although having said that, your Pixelbook (29cm x 22cm x 1cm) does meets the size params, but the 2011 netbook (approx 26 x 18 x 2) works better.

    Obvs a Pixelbook is outside my budget at the mo' but if I wait two/three years and get a refurb'd one, it should be doable, so thanks, I'll keep an eye out.
    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    The problem with second hand laptops is: 1., you don't know how well its been owned, and there's the risk it's been smacked around and therefore has a significant risk of failure; 2., battery life will worsen and worsen and worsen.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Lol. The trade deal will take years to conclude and go through the EU's ratification process. We'll be very lucky indeed if it is even ready to start ratification during the transition period.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Lol. The trade deal will take years to conclude and go through the EU's ratification process. We'll be very lucky indeed if it is even ready to start ratification during the transition period.
    Don't forget, though, that the phasing of the payments is no accident. Most of the money we're agreeing to pay is in the future, rather than now.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Lol. The trade deal will take years to conclude and go through the EU's ratification process. We'll be very lucky indeed if it is even ready to start ratification during the transition period.
    Don't forget, though, that the phasing of the payments is no accident. Most of the money we're agreeing to pay is in the future, rather than now.
    As I said below, threatening to stop payments that we have already agreed to would be seen as a nuclear option. It would be worth it if the EU said "you're not having any deal at all", but it isn't going to be that helpful when it comes to winning concessions on points of detail.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,760
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    I suspect I'm going to get my arse smacked here 'cos our needs are different, but the chips are (broadly) comparable

    https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57

    I think your chip is better than the N2600 when it comes to graphics and gameplay, but the stuff I do on trains is not games but Excel, Powerpoint, SAS and (latterly) R on RStudio. So the need for a high-resolution screen and fast graphics is absent and the size issue is crucial: it has to be narrow so I can type two-handed on the seatback tray without sticking my elbows into the fat bloke sitting in the neighbouring seat. Although having said that, your Pixelbook (29cm x 22cm x 1cm) does meets the size params, but the 2011 netbook (approx 26 x 18 x 2) works better.

    Obvs a Pixelbook is outside my budget at the mo' but if I wait two/three years and get a refurb'd one, it should be doable, so thanks, I'll keep an eye out.

    Cough.

    A modern Intel Core i5 is nothing like an Atom from 2012.

    When the N2600 was released in 2011, it cost $22.
    The i5 in the Pixelbook costs about $280 today.
    Oh my god, it's a nerd-off... :)

    First of all, I didn't say they were equal, I said they were comparable. And to prove it I posted a comparison (https://versus.com/en/intel-atom-n2600-vs-intel-core-i5-7y57). Here's another one http://www.cpu-world.com/Compare/790/Intel_Atom_N2600_vs_Intel_Core_i5_Mobile_i5-7Y57.html .

    Your chip is better than my chip, but my chip is ten times cheaper and the laptop it's attached to is (refurb'd) is ten-fifteen times cheaper. If I take in the latter and add new ram and a SSD in it, it'll top out at approx £200 and it's a full inch narrower and shallower. Your chip is twice as fast if (if!) hyperthreaded (but slower if not!), but in real-world usage that won't reflect in twice-as-fast software.

    That approach isn't optimal: the 2Gb limit is a bottleneck that's difficult to get thru, but if you strip out the bloat it'll do. So while you are correct that the Pixelbook is better, the marginal cost doesn't really justify the marginal benefit.

    Right now I'm thinking of getting a refurbished Lenovo x230 and shoving new Ram and SDD in it until it squeaks: you can push that thing up to 16Gb Ram and 2Tb SSD and still be under £1K, although a more realistic approach would be 8GB/500Gb SSD for about £500, and it's still small enough and you have an external battery so you can force a restart. At this point would spending the extra £500 on a Pixelbook be worth it?

    As for the refurbishment point: there are such things as authorised refurbishers. They give a good compromise between buying new and getting a laptop from a bloke on Gumtree who didn't nick it honest
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,760
    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,898
    edited November 2017
    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    Or perhaps not:

    Apple rushes to fix major password bug

    "The bug was discovered by Turkish developer Lemi Ergin.

    He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."


    :joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:

    Edit: I think I'll stick with openSUSE!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    Or perhaps not:

    Apple rushes to fix major password bug

    "The bug was discovered by Turkish developer Lemi Ergin.

    He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."


    :joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:

    Edit: I think I'll stick with openSUSE!
    Too much time focusing on that awful gimmicky touch bar and not enough time debugging the core OS.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    I'd sell you mine but even at six years old, I'm still attached to it! That's how good they are. Mine saw anywhere between eight and sixteen hours a day's worth of use for the first three years of its life, and still sees an hour or two a day, despite having been replaced by faster (and bigger) devices at home and at work. I'm confident I'll get another year or two out of it yet, so if you pick up a three year old one you'll get your money's worth out of it.

    479 quid here, which strikes me as an absolute steal.

    https://www.groupon.co.uk/deals/apple-macbook-air-116-i5-128gb

    rcs1000 is right though, buying second hand / refurb is a gamble and you should always buy through a reputable dealer.

    And battery life is a problem on them - don't expect to get more than four hours without plugging it into a wall.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Remember the shrill cry: "We owe them nothing", "We should walk away", "They will beg us to trade with them".

    It has come a long way since then. A weak government with a even weaker hand is now admitting how weak it is.

    Britain will now accept anything to do a free trade agreement with the EU. The arrogant rhetoric discarded. The Emperor has been found to have no clothes.

    Northern Ireland to be ditched soon. That would make sense.

  • Options
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    Or perhaps not:

    Apple rushes to fix major password bug

    "The bug was discovered by Turkish developer Lemi Ergin.

    He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."


    :joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:

    Edit: I think I'll stick with openSUSE!
    Too much time focusing on that awful gimmicky touch bar and not enough time debugging the core OS.
    "For those not confident enough to change system settings like this, security experts advise simply - don't let your Mac out of your sight, and be sure to apply the system update when prompted."

    :scream::scream::scream::scream::joy::joy:
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
    How much are Canada paying to trade in the single market?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    Or perhaps not:

    Apple rushes to fix major password bug

    "The bug was discovered by Turkish developer Lemi Ergin.

    He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."


    :joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:

    Edit: I think I'll stick with openSUSE!
    Too much time focusing on that awful gimmicky touch bar and not enough time debugging the core OS.
    "For those not confident enough to change system settings like this, security experts advise simply - don't let your Mac out of your sight, and be sure to apply the system update when prompted."

    :scream::scream::scream::scream::joy::joy:
    I can hear them now.. "You're not holding on to it right"... :p
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Brexit divorce bill figure is leaked when the media is talking about Meghan and what's his name.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
    How much are Canada paying to trade in the single market?
    Does Canada have passport rights ? Why is Norway paying ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited November 2017
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
    How much are Canada paying to trade in the single market?
    Does Canada have passport rights ? Why is Norway paying ?
    Isn't the chance of passporting virtually nil? And they are paying because they are in the single market.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
    How much are Canada paying to trade in the single market?
    Regardless, I agree with surbiton that we are likely to finish paying some sort of regular contribution, arising from discussions on the trade talks. The EU has the strongest negotiating position for the second phase of the talks.

    My guess is that the payment will be directed towards specific funds, such as for East Europe reconstruction, rather than to the EU generally, which will allow the government to offset them against the 0.7% foreign aid commitment (as they do now with a modest proportion of the annual EU subscription, using the same logic).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    As a matter of interest what is your desired result of Brexit
    I'd want to see a detailed, line-by-line breakdown of what exactly our liabilities (and assets) are.

    If Theresa was offering £20bn in Florence why has it suddenly gone to £40Bn? £45Bn? £50Bn? £60Bn?

    At the moment its more like an episode of Play Your (Brexit) Cards Right except there's never a "lower" , "lower" just "higher" , "higher"

    Finally for the love of god is this it now? Or is she planning to go "higher" , "higher" again next week? :D
    This is only to buy a ticket to the dance.

    To trade in the single market will cost money annually. Norway paid about €700m in 2016.
    Of Norway's contribution, half went to support EU projects in poorer parts of the bloc. That is the true "membership fee". The other half was related to membership of various EU administered bodies, such as the European Medicines Agency, Gallileo, Erasmus and the European Space Agency.

    I think there is a very good case for remaining members of quite a few EU administered bodies, so long as the price is right. Of course, if we were to remain members of (say) Galileo (which has costs that definitely don't flex with the number of members), that is a nice negotiating position with regards to payments.

    (As an aside, I think Mrs May was fundamentally wrong to rule out all ECJ oversight. We accept ITU tribunal rulings with regards to telecoms, I don't think accepting theoretical ECJ oversight as regards rulings on medicine safety is that big a deal.)
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why i'm surprised that a woman who though it was a good idea to call an emergency election and then declare war on her main voting demographic should **** everything up though....

    Precisely the opposite, May is delivering a Brexit that really can unite the country, a FTA that ends free movement. Only diehard Remainers who want to stay in the EU or the single market and diehard Leavers who don't want to pay the EU a penny will disagree.
    No. The issue is that we have paid money without any agreement that there will ever be an FTA at all and there is no point paying anything unless services is included with the FTA. Given that the UK has conceded on everything and gained nothing in return, we will now get a CETA deal with no add in for services. This will be worse than nothing given our trade pattern.

    We would be far better off on WTO terms and no Brexit bill than a CETA deal with no services and a 50bn bill.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Lol. The trade deal will take years to conclude and go through the EU's ratification process. We'll be very lucky indeed if it is even ready to start ratification during the transition period.
    Don't forget, though, that the phasing of the payments is no accident. Most of the money we're agreeing to pay is in the future, rather than now.
    As I said below, threatening to stop payments that we have already agreed to would be seen as a nuclear option. It would be worth it if the EU said "you're not having any deal at all", but it isn't going to be that helpful when it comes to winning concessions on points of detail.
    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987

    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.

    That is not true.

    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We may make transition payments during the two years, but there will be no "big cheque" until there is acceptable FTA in place.

    Your view seems to be that Mrs May is more scared of a drunken Juncker than the electorate. Now, she is rightly scared of the damage that an unprepared WTO exit would cause. But she's no fool: she knows that handing over money and receiving nothing in return would result in Mr Corbyn being the next Prime Minister.

    Now, I very generously offered you 2-1 odds on what you keep touting as a near certainty. That is, us ponying up money for no deal. Put up.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    So it looks like:

    (i) we're leaving the EU in accordance with the Art. 50 timetable

    (ii) there will be an OK trade deal (or the EU don't get our money they have already spent)

    (iii) there has been serious shit ongoing in the background - whilst a whole lot of chaff was thrown around to obscure this

    (iv) the Remainers thought the chaff was the serious shit. It really wasn't

    (v) the price seems high - but ball-park for exiting. Those who complain about the price we'll have to pay should look to those who have silently signed up to those liabiliites to the EU for decades

    (vi) Remainers now need to rely on arch Brexiteers derailing Brexit because it is too expensive - and thereby continuing to pay the tens of billions, year after year. Good luck with that.



    Not zero chance, but seeing the ultras of any side switch arguments when one no longer applies is hilarious. Though I still doubt how may sells thus to the leaver ultras.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    Very good news that the sane wing of the Cabinet has faced down the loons. Hopefully, this will continue. Time for Boris to be fired?

    It's often time for that, but he's slippery.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/suits_usa/status/935631416506961928

    "After 7 amazing seasons" - FAKE NEWS...Season 1 was decent, downhill since then.
    Nah, some ups and downs, but there were some very good stuff even in the latest seasons.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    rcs1000 said:

    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.

    But she's no fool: she knows that handing over money and receiving nothing in return would result in Mr Corbyn being the next Prime Minister.

    That part of it is not really within her power -after all, remain argued we had a great deal before we were leaving but the public disagreed, so it is more if people think we get nothing in return, or not enough, then she and the tories are toast. Since what we get is not immediately tangible, I put their chances of swaying people, even though labour are officially for leave and presumably paying a bill, as pretty low.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    edited November 2017
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.

    But she's no fool: she knows that handing over money and receiving nothing in return would result in Mr Corbyn being the next Prime Minister.

    That part of it is not really within her power -after all, remain argued we had a great deal before we were leaving but the public disagreed, so it is more if people think we get nothing in return, or not enough, then she and the tories are toast. Since what we get is not immediately tangible, I put their chances of swaying people, even though labour are officially for leave and presumably paying a bill, as pretty low.
    OK, let me turn it around.

    What would doom the May Premiership and hand Corbyn the keys to Number 10 would be a serious recession.

    Now, there are many possible causes of that recession. I've wrote on here many times about how unbalanced the UK economy is, with the lowest savings rate on record, leading to a nasty current account deficit. That will need to rebalance at some point, and this will - in all probability - be an unpleasant process.

    Crashing out of the EU to an unprepared WTO position, where there are no mutual equivalence agreements, would likely act as a trigger to a recession, as it would result in gross capital formation (aka investment) dropping meaningfully. (I've argued long and hard that departing the EU should be seen as a process rather than a big bang event.)

    This puts Mrs May in an unenviable position. She's made assurances to businesses like Nissan regarding the terms of trade with the EU. But this has also tied her hands, and the EU negotiators know it.

    What works in our favour, and I think makes me fundamentally optimistic, is that for all their bluster, the EU needs a deal too. Sure, we're just 7% of Germany's exports, but that still makes us a very important destination. The Eurozone has only recently emerged from an extremely unpleasant and largely self-inflicted recession, politicians across the bloc have no desire to trigger another one.

    I also think that - now money is out the way - the power dynamic changes. They are now expecting the cash, and making plans to spend it. The psychological feature of loss aversion now takes over: they have mentally pocketed the money, and will do all they can to avoid losing it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A second hand or refurbished 11" Macbook Air (starting at 550 quid on Amazon) might do you. Mine is still going strong at nearly six years old (admittedly I have a desktop PC at home and a Pro at work). Only drawback is the limited battery life - about 4 hours max.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/B00DCR3SQG/

    Oddly (and genuinely) a bloke in work has one and made the same recommendation. I had a play (mmm...Macbook Air) and it was quite fun, but...well, we'll see.
    Or perhaps not:

    Apple rushes to fix major password bug

    "The bug was discovered by Turkish developer Lemi Ergin.

    He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."


    :joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:

    Edit: I think I'll stick with openSUSE!
    Too much time focusing on that awful gimmicky touch bar and not enough time debugging the core OS.
    "For those not confident enough to change system settings like this, security experts advise simply - don't let your Mac out of your sight, and be sure to apply the system update when prompted."

    :scream::scream::scream::scream::joy::joy:
    If it is bad as that, how on the hell does a multi billion company make such critical errors?!
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    rcs1000 said:

    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.

    That is not true.

    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We may make transition payments during the two years, but there will be no "big cheque" until there is acceptable FTA in place.

    Your view seems to be that Mrs May is more scared of a drunken Juncker than the electorate. Now, she is rightly scared of the damage that an unprepared WTO exit would cause. But she's no fool: she knows that handing over money and receiving nothing in return would result in Mr Corbyn being the next Prime Minister.

    Now, I very generously offered you 2-1 odds on what you keep touting as a near certainty. That is, us ponying up money for no deal. Put up.
    Are you referring to no Article 50 deal, or no ratified FTA?

    In any event, the point is rather different. The question is whether the A50 treaty will link the Brexit bill to the ratification of the FTA (which cannot happen at that time) or, as the EU say, the payment will be unconditional as a treaty obligation at that time. What is it you are saying is going to happen?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The payment needs to be explicitly and publicly linked to delivery. But it won't be because May is too scared to stand up to the EU. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed means NOTHING in the context of this agreement - the EU will say publicly that there is no link and the UK will not dare contradict them, so there will be no grounds for refusing to pay later. We have been sold out.

    But she's no fool: she knows that handing over money and receiving nothing in return would result in Mr Corbyn being the next Prime Minister.

    That part of it is not really within her power -after all, remain argued we had a great deal before we were leaving but the public disagreed, so it is more if people think we r leave and presumably paying a bill, as pretty low.
    OK, let me turn it around.

    What would doom the May Premiership and hand Corbyn the keys to Number 10 would be a serious recession.

    Now, there are many possible causes of that recession. I've wrote on here many times about how unbalanced the UK economy is, with the lowest savings rate on record, leading to a nasty current account deficit. That will need to rebalance at some point, and this will - in all probability - be an unpleasant process.

    Crashing out of the EU to an unprepared WTO position, where there are no mutual equivalence agreements, would likely act

    This puts Mrs May in an unenviable position. She's made assurances to businesses like Nissan regarding the terms of trade with the EU. But this has also tied her hands, and the EU negotiators know it.

    What works in our favour, and I think makes me fundamentally optimistic, is that for all their bluster, the EU needs a deal too. Sure, we're just 7% of Germany's exports, but that still makes us a very important destination. The Eurozone has only recently emerged from an extremely unpleasant and largely self-inflicted recession, politicians across the bloc have no desire to trigger another one.

    I also think that - now money is out the way - the power dynamic changes. They are now expecting the cash, and making plans to spend it. The psychological feature of loss aversion now takes over: they have mentally pocketed the money, and will do all they can to avoid losing it.
    I'm sort of just assuming a major recession as a given at this point. I hope you are right about the EU and that they know that -the ultras like to go on about us nit mattering to them anymore, but I give the EU more credit than that, given out size and proximity.

    But recession on top of everything else is who I think Corbyn has such a good chance now, despite his liabilities.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    Morning. Have I got confused between PB and Slashdot, or do I need another coffee?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896

    Scott_P said:

    None of the people who disputed Osborne halving the EU bill will fall for that, surely...

    I've somewhat lost track of the logical contortions. The people who were criticising the PM for not agreeing the exit bill now seem to be criticising her for agreeing it, and the people who were saying we shouldn't pay a bean have now manoeuvred her into a position where she is too weak to resist paying the reparations. Meanwhile the Irish are threatening to derail things because they don't want things derailed, the LibDems want a referendum on an option which doesn't exist, and Labour (whose policy is to leave the Single Market and Customs Union) are complaining that the government hasn't thought through the problems of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Only the SNP are being consistent, but since they are consistently obstructive that doesn't help much.
    LOL, brilliant comment!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Sandpit said:

    Morning. Have I got confused between PB and Slashdot, or do I need another coffee?

    I assume that's a computer focused site and not a slash fic forum! That's the last thing anyone needs.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    Scott_P said:

    This is hilarious

    ttps://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/935600430360514560

    Dan Hannan’s optimistic vision of a successful Britain outside the EU is what the Eurocrats are scared sh!tless about coming to fruition. We need more people like Dan making the positive case for a global Britain in the next decade.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. Have I got confused between PB and Slashdot, or do I need another coffee?

    I assume that's a computer focused site and not a slash fic forum! That's the last thing anyone needs.
    https://slashdot.org Long running tech blog that I also have on the list of things to flick through in the morning.

    The comments above about laptops and basic software being better five years ago is correct. I’ve upgraded my old laptop (2012 MacBook Pro) rather than replacing it with something new that’s glued together and impossible to service.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    New Thread

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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The EI is a powerful mafiosi (no one leaves the Organisation) which has taken the British economy hostage and demanded a huge ransom. Britain will pay the protection money but the EU is an organisation that we are well rid of.
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    No, Redwood etc will cling to nurse, for fear of finding something worse. Corbyn and his clowns continue to help the Tories.
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