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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This Morning’s YouGov
Sun/YouGov Poll
Con 33% (+2)
Lab 40% (-1)
LD 9% (nc)
UKIP 12%(-1)
Changes since last pre Syria poll Con nc, Lab +3, LD -1, UKIP nc
0
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Good: 41 (+2)
Bad: 41 (-4)
And Labour still stuck with the blame:
And who do you think is most to blame for the current spending cuts?
Coalition: 25 (-3)
Labour: 36 (+2)
I expect Ed!s awesome speech at Conference will turn that around......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23938308
" Team principal Christian Horner said Ricciardo was "very talented, committed, has great attitude and in the end it was a very logical choice".
Red Bull chose Ricciardo over former world champion Kimi Raikkonen. "
Really? I don't have proof, but that doesn't make sense and I think it unlikely to be true. Ricciardo really wanted to join Red Bull. They could've had him at any moment. The only reason for there to be speculation and prolonged debate and doubt was because they were after Raikkonen. But, the Finn is the antithesis of an eager young driver, and probably ended up saying No to them, rather than vice versa (or there may have been a mutually insurmountable issue, such as guaranteed equal treatment with Vettel).
This still leaves Massa's seat under doubt, with Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and Di Resta all potential replacements (personally, I'd go for Hulkenberg).
"First, Parliament was not reborn as a gathering of noble-minded statesmen, but remains a fickle collection of politicians of differing quality and motivation. Next, Britain has not been reduced overnight from goliath to midget – rather, it continues on its unchanged course of relative military decline. Ed Miliband is neither particularly treacherous nor surprisingly cunning, just fundamentally unsuited to be prime minister. And finally, David Cameron is a leader without a majority following, held hostage by a gang of Tory irreconcilables angry that he didn’t win last time and fearful that he won’t win in 2015. The rest, as they say, is noise."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100233894/cameron-the-quarterback-cant-keep-relying-on-a-hail-mary-pass/
The census had a 94% completion rate, reducing the number of questions is an irrelevance, it would cost the same to collect anyway and reducing the data collected wouldn't push up returns above 94%
That strikes me as very high - certainly there were some areas of London that I think (from memory) were down to 60% or so. Obviously not representative, but it does mean that you would need to get near complete returns elsewhere to achieve 94%.
Can you provide a link?
On the cost, yes the fixed costs are an element of it (I would have thought that you could use an internet based approach to reduce a substantial part of the costs, but obviously you'd need to make sure it is sufficiently comprehensive).
Another big part of the costs loaded on though is the civil servants involved in the data analysis - that would be reduced by getting rid of inane questions.
Moreover the principle should be that the government should only do what it is necessary for the government to do. Not what some bloke in Whitehall would like to do.
It hasn't been avoided, I was busy on Sunday, and decided to lead with a more interesting VI poll Sunday (and it's follow up today) and then published a prepared thread OGH Sunday afternoon.
Yesterday I ran four threads yesterday, three with VI/referendum polls and one betting thread.
I'm not going to give priority to a 4 month old poll over those threads.
It would make them so happy ;-)
Betting PostBacked Wawrinka to beat Berdych in the US Open at 3.15. I think it's a 50/50 shot (Wawrinka's won 6 out of 11 prior meetings, similar proportion on hard courts only), rather than Wawrinka being the outsider as the odds suggest.
"Although if Vodafone had had to pay tax then it would not have sold the business"
Charles I'm pretty sure lots of businesses were bought and sold prior to 2005. Companies sell them if there is no strategic fit or they can deploy the cash better elsewhere. Vodaphone's issues with Verizon have been running for years so a sale would have taken place irrespective of what the tax laws were. In Plc world businesses aren't kept just because of tax laws. It's just another example of Labour getting panned by multinationals and the taxpayer picking up the tab. The question now is will the coalition change the law ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-23931065
Kindly stop slacking on the job and provide the required "Ed is Crap" diet of hourly threads that will ensure a fit of the vapours for certain Cheshire farmers !!
And another well used meme bites the dust'
Anoher soaraway poll for the Labour Party..
Perhaps we can get YouGov, ICM or ARSE to poll about Viscount Thurso's beard?
As I said, a poll that showed an increase of Labour's lead by 6% was an important poll, to put that poll into context, so it seems logical to follow up with the next poll by that organisation to see if that 6% increase was a harbinger or not.
I don't usually talk about immigration because living in East Ham I see it up close and personal. As I said the other night, part of what has happened since the recession has been the emergence of a new insularity and a desire to maintain identity. So much of what has happened politically and socially since 2008 can be explained by this as insecurity breeds insularity.
This morning's poll, like most, means very little. It's not helpful to micro-analyse movements of one or two points and build lofty scenarios from them. Labour have a small but solid lead and Ed Miliband was on the right side of opinion over Syria. Perhaps Cameron, who is more often than not on the right side of that opinion, thought he could convince through argument but he couldn't, for whatever reason, convince Parliament and he certainly hasn't convinced the country.
Sometimes it's important to recognise, however in the right you think you are and however persuasive your argument may be, that some battles can't be won and it's best to walk away and that seemed to be the Clegg line yesterday. Of course, some will say, that wasn't the Thatcher approach but when you have solid majorities of 100+, you have more room for manoeuvre.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/how-our-census-works/how-we-took-the-2011-census/how-we-processed-the-information/data-quality-assurance/index.html
I've very quickly skimmed it, and it seems like good reading for insomniacs.
"Like Crassus, has Clegg's career ended in Syria?"
" POOR white boys are falling far behind at school, a study shows today.
It found only 26 per cent of under-privileged white lads on free school meals got five good GCSEs last year.
That compared to 40 per cent of poor black boys and 63 per cent of pupils, male or female, from all other backgrounds. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5112890/Poor-white-boys-trail-at-school-with-just-14-getting-good-GCSEs-results.html
Q1 - Who do you blame for Mike Smithson's hirsute problems? :
a. The last Labour government.
b. The Coalition government.
c. Both
Q2 - Should bearded Scottish peer Viscount Thurso succeed David Cameron as PM shortly ?
a. Unquestionably yes and within the week.
b. Most definitely yes and within seven days.
c. Next Tuesday can't come quick enough.
d. Why isn't Viscountess Thurso measuring for No 10 curtains now.
ARSE - Better Polling For A Greater Britain
Damian Thompson @holysmoke
Monster traffic for Telegraph Blog stars: between 120K and 170K page views this week for @timothy_stanley @brokenbottleboy @DPJHodges
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 12m
By 68% to 15% Opinium finds likely voters are in favour of wind farms
CON voters split 61% in favour 23% against
http://goo.gl/hSEJvF
World First @World_First
UK construction PMI = 59.1 vs 56.9 expected and 57.0 previous
ONS @statisticsONS
Value of inward #acquisitions £23.4bn in Q2 2013, increasing sizeably from £3.5bn in Q1: bit.ly/1e6GN6L
Sharpest inc in 6yrs for construction
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTOZT2lCIAEHHJ_.jpg:large
I've got severe reservations about them simply because they can't provide guaranteed electricity so there have to be back-up measures.
Good, potential, click bait.
I know a fair few second and third generation immigrants who have very strong views on immigration and who surprised me by their view to new immigrants. Whilst they tend not to be overtly racist in their reasoning some of what they say could easily be coming from someone who could trace their family roots back in Britain for hundreds of years. Not saying that would be your view at all but certainly being descended from immigrants in recent history doesn't necessarily seem to make people pro-uncontrolled immigration.
If you were born here you are as much British/English as the next man and have as much right to have an opinion about immigration, whether positive or negative, as the next person.
Maybe we should have more second and third generation immigrants talking about their views and perceptions of our immigration policies. The idea that they should keep quiet about it is just wrong.
That's a daft as saying you'll vote X or Y because Grandad did 100yrs ago.
The important thing is to make sure people who are effected by wind farms are compensated.
My views on wind farms (as expressed passim on here) are nuanced. I've got no problem with many developments, but am rabidly against farms on moorland, and especially wilderness.
As you say, there're also the problems of the intermittent nature of the power produced, as well as the cost.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/13/in-praise-of-lord-ashcroft-the-uks-leading-commissioner-of-political-polling/
"To back his position Ashcroft has commissioned a mass of polling which suggests that the strategy that is being followed is probably not going to work.
Ashcroft has ploughed huge amounts into expensive phone polling and big sample online surveys simply because he is a seeker after knowledge. Very generously he has made the full details of his polling available to others. He’s also been very responsive to points raised by poll watchers like me."
That said, Nick couldn't carry the Parliamentary Party last Thursday though I thought he argued the case well in the HoC. I detect he's as anxious to move on as others are to re-visit but the point, as I mentioned in my previous, is that public opinion was and remains strongly opposed to British intervention of any kind in Syria at this time.
Whether Cameron and Clegg thought they had a window of opportunity following the chemical attack to obtain authorisation for action I don't know but Ban Ki-Moon closed that down on the Thursday morning when he said his inspectors needed more time. Perhaps No.10 thought the Inspectors would have a report written much more quickly than has been the case.
As for Nick's "career", on the assumptions that the Liberal Democrats will be a reduced Parliamentary presence and on the Opposition benches, I suspect Nick will step down fairly quickly after the election.
It's one of those topics that really doesn't get me excited, at various stages on here, and elsewhere I've either accused of being an Islamophobe or someone has said, I'm so English/British from my posts that I can't possibly be grandchild of immigrants to this country.
It gets so confusing and the discussion is so binary.
Either you're a racist if you want some control on immigration or you're wanting to see the British enslaved if you're in favour of some immigration.
His tastes in music, on the other hand...
So that is part of the tory support.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/syria-lib-dem-members-poll-35939.html
(Note, I'm still a fan of Clegg, which probably explains is his problems)
LBC 97.3 @lbc973
Boris: If Barclays give £100 million pounds for the cycle scheme, I'll change my name to Barclays Johnson bit.ly/1a2BjHw #AskBoris
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/07/01/we-can-topple-clegg-in-sheffield-hallam/
LD 1/3
Labour 4/1
Conservatives 10/1
Which is odd as Clegg polled 27k in 2010, the Tories 12k, and Labour 8k.
Might be worth a punt on the Tories as a value bet.
Actually one of the things I like about the internet and discussion groups like this is that you can honestly be colour blind unless someone actually makes a point of talking about their background. I like to think it confirms my views of race and ethnicity being secondary to cultural influences.
Sheffield United have revealed that the new co-owner of the club is HRH Prince Abdullah bin Mosaad bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.
Prince Abdullah is part of the Saudi Arabian royal family, one of the richest royal families in the world, worth an estimated £21billion.
The Prince will become co-chairman of the club alongside current chairman Kevin McCabe.
Prince Abdullah will be joined on the United board by Abdulraham Bin Abdullah, James Phipps and Selahattin Baki
Read more: http://www.sheffutd.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=331135#ixzz2dolUb1Es
Almost immediately, economy takes off.
Interest rates going up much sooner than we think, starting with gilts (10yr to 3% soonish I reckon), barring an external disaster.
Progressives 49%
Tories 33%
On another forum, I was accused of displaying the typical arrogance of a Yorkshireman, that has existed since the vikings, and I must trace my lineage to the Vikings. I was like erm...
I agree with the Englishness state of mind.
"It seems perverse, but Mark Carney could do with some bad news on the economy. Ever since the Bank of England's new governor arrived, the data has been relentlessly upbeat, and that's not so good if your message is that a fragile recovery requires interest rates to be held ultra-low for the next three years."
As an LD member, I'm comfortably in with the majority but that poll was from earlier last week before the vote and before any later revelations so I suspect that if you think that puts Nick in any kind of hot water, I'd argue those waters are tepid going on cold.
FWIW, I took part in that survey as I do many of those commissioned by Stephen Tall.
It is back on the TV on Saturday.
England win the toss and bowl.
Are you planning to lay Rachel Reeves ? *innocent face*
I must confess I have been wavering a little about my opposition to intervention but that interview confirmed my original views. Regime change, naivity about what comes next, it was all there despite General Keane clearly being a very informed and intelligent person with vast experience of Iraq.
His comments about the US wanting to disengage with the middle east were particularly interesting but hard to reconcile with the decisions allegedly made.
The temptation to bring this vote back to the Commons so we can all laugh at Miliband's change of heart must be strong but I very much hope it is resisted.
My tips for this year are Sophie Ellis Bextor, Rachel Riley and Ben Cohen.
Peace Parties- 52%
Saving Syrian Babies 42%
Appeasing Assad Arseholes 52%
[edit for link]
Jon Passantino ✔ @passantino
WIRE: Russia reports missiles fired in Mediterranean (Interfax) pic.twitter.com/RnKIl96hwq
[further update] - missile launches reported but no corresponding impacts detected.
What may well happen, as Dan Hodges pointed out yesterday, is that there is a vote on a motion approving of US action. Labour's position in such a vote would be interesting.
The weater here, 5km north of the Spanish border is perfect.