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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for Damian Green, the police have a 110% lead on net

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    surbiton said:

    I wonder what Sunil will come up with now. HYUFD, the resident Tory, now that Fitalass does not contribute much will have something to say about Survation's suitability.
    As I have said, that Survation is actually pretty much in line with the other polls, it shows we are heading for a Labour minority government but not a Labour overall majority for which Corbyn needs a lead of about 10% over the Tories if he does not win any further seats from the SNP (which the most recent Scottish Westminster poll does not suggest he will).

    Don't forget either that while Survation was the most accurate pollster at the general election it actually slightly underestimated the Tory lead, its final poll had a Tory lead of 1% and the general election result was a 2% Tory lead.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    surbiton said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    I sacked a Salesperson for having porn in a company mobile phone because it was against our company policy. He didn't even protest.
    You are obviously well 'ard and extremely important, then.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Two things

    1) he denies it and unless it is proven he should not resign over it

    2) He has much more of a problem with the harrasment allegations

    Big g agreed , I appreciate he denies it.That is my point in any other profession he would be suspended and the investigation would decide.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    RobD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    RobD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Yeah, but a far worse look for the police if it looks as though they are seeking to undermine a cabinet minister by releasing information that isn't supposed to be in the public domain.
    One rule for ordinary Joe and another for MPs then , anyone in the public sector would be suspended pending an investigation.
    I suspect any self employed person could watch porn on their work computer all day without having any repercussions (apart from obviously not getting any work done).
    They are paid out of public funds.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Two things

    1) he denies it and unless it is proven he should not resign over it

    2) He has much more of a problem with the harrasment allegations

    Big g agreed , I appreciate he denies it.That is my point in any other profession he would be suspended and the investigation would decide.
    But it was legal. However 2 will decide his fate
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    What Tom Winsor said:

    "Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Constabulary Sir Thomas Winsor said the police's special powers were inseparable from "obligations of special trust".
    This trust required every officer "to respect and keep confidential information which they obtain in the course of their duties, and which is irrelevant to their inquiries and discloses no criminal conduct", he said.

    "If a police officer broke that trust whilst serving as a police officer, he or she would face disciplinary action and could be dismissed.
    "In certain circumstances, such action could also constitute a criminal offence."
    The obligation was enduring and "does not end" when a police officer retires, he said."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42205329
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited December 2017

    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM

    NOT Kaboom. This poll still shows a Labour minority government, the same as the other pollsters, the Labour lead is not big enough for an overall majority.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:
    Who can say what anything looks like these days.
    I would suppose that the question of voting Conservative or Labour didn't actually ask if the questionees were going to vote.... My feeling of Tory MP's and supporters are that they are loyal to the country, and to those who are effective in doing so, unfortunately.......
    Where as the Labour Party has around 500,000 members ready and primed for a snap GE, with funds ready and this time, available to walk the streets, knock the doors, push pamphlets and fliers through letter boxes, run call centres, use social media platforms...
    The Labour Party had all that in June too and still failed to win
    The majority of the PLP and the administration didn't believe Corbyn could win and hoarded resources and leadership skills for the "new" leader who would replace him, this time......
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Sir Tom Winsor, Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Constabulary: "such actions can in certain circumstances be illegal"
    As clear as mud then ! Or, was he ingeniously referring to acquiring porn in a HoC computer ?
    He was referring to the coppers. He at least knows his remit.....
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Two things

    1) he denies it and unless it is proven he should not resign over it

    2) He has much more of a problem with the harrasment allegations

    Big g agreed , I appreciate he denies it.That is my point in any other profession he would be suspended and the investigation would decide.
    And if an ordinary employee was found to have used company IT to watch porn in company time then dismissal would almost certainly result.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,603

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The point is that there was little industrial conflict over the period March 74 to Autumn 78 - with the exception of a Firemans' strike during the 77/78 Winter.

    Excuse me kind of taking this off topic but the mention of the strife of the 1970s reminded me of an amazing comment made on the Sky Arts series 'The Seventies' a few nights ago.

    They said that in one year (I believe it was 1972) there were over 1,000 terrorist bombings in the US. They were talking about how common they were to the extent that they basically stopped being news. (Looking it up I see there were over 2500 terrorist bombings in 18 months in 1971/72 averaging out at 5 a day.)

    I must admit I was completely unaware of this and it seems a stunning figure in the context of today's preoccupation with terrorism.
    So was I unaware of it. That's an incredible figure.

    Who was doing the bombing? Or was it a mixture?
    I think it was a wide mixture. There were plenty of far left or radical groups like the Weather Underground and the Symbionese Liberation Army of Patty Hurst fame. Then there were the various Independence movements, most notably the Puerto Rican Separatists. There was the Jewish Defence League which bombed targets it considered anti-Semitic. There were also lots of individuals out to attack the Government or big business including environmental groups, general anti-government types and those opposed to various big businesses.

    Nor were these just minor attacks. If you look at the lists there are regularly people killed, the worst being the 1975 attack at La Guardia which killed 11 and which was never solved.
    And in Europe we had the Red Brigades, Baader Meinhof, ETA and, of course, the PIRA. Terrorist outrages were much more common and more serious than in recent years - several prominent German and Italian business leaders were killed by Baader Meinhof and the Red Brigades, the Prime Minister of Spain was assassinated by ETA in 1973 and the PIRA assassinated a number of prominent figures including Lord Mountbatten , Airey Neave MP and the British Ambassador to Ireland, Christopher Ewart Biggs. In the early 1960s the French President, De Gaulle, narrowly escaped a similar fate by an earlier terrorist group, the OAS. It was a much more violent age.
    Don't forget Aldo Moro:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldo_Moro

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM

    NOT Kaboom. This poll still shows a Labour minority government, the same as the other pollsters, the Labour lead is not big enough for an overall majority.
    It is according to electoral calculus
  • Options
    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Scott_P said:
    No it does not, Labour needs a swing of 5.5% for that, the swing here is 5%
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2017
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The point is that there was little industrial conflict over the period March 74 to Autumn 78 - with the exception of a Firemans' strike during the 77/78 Winter.

    Excuse me kind of taking this off topic but the mention of the strife of the 1970s reminded me of an amazing comment made on the Sky Arts series 'The Seventies' a few nights ago.

    They said that in one year (I believe it was 1972) there were over 1,000 terrorist bombings in the US. They were talking about how common they were to the extent that they basically stopped being news. (Looking it up I see there were over 2500 terrorist bombings in 18 months in 1971/72 averaging out at 5 a day.)

    I must admit I was completely unaware of this and it seems a stunning figure in the context of today's preoccupation with terrorism.
    So was I unaware of it. That's an incredible figure.

    Who was doing the bombing? Or was it a mixture?
    I think it was a wide mixture. There were plenty of far left or radical groups like the Weather Underground and the Symbionese Liberation Army of Patty Hurst fame. Then there were the various Independence movements, most notably the Puerto Rican Separatists. There was the Jewish Defence League which bombed targets it considered anti-Semitic. There were also lots of individuals out to attack the Government or big business including environmental groups, general anti-government types and those opposed to various big businesses.

    Nor were these just minor attacks. If you look at the lists there are regularly people killed, the worst being the 1975 attack at La Guardia which killed 11 and which was never solved.
    And in Europe we had the Red Brigades, Baader Meinhof, ETA and, of course, the PIRA. Terrorist outrages were much more common and more serious than in recent years - several prominent German and Italian business leaders were killed by Baader Meinhof and the Red Brigades, the Prime Minister of Spain was assassinated by ETA in 1973 and the PIRA assassinated a number of prominent figures including Lord Mountbatten , Airey Neave MP and the British Ambassador to Ireland, Christopher Ewart Biggs. In the early 1960s the French President, De Gaulle, narrowly escaped a similar fate by an earlier terrorist group, the OAS. It was a much more violent age.
    Don't forget Aldo Moro:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldo_Moro

    Yes he was a victim of the Red Brigade IIRC.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Two things

    1) he denies it and unless it is proven he should not resign over it

    2) He has much more of a problem with the harrasment allegations

    Big g agreed , I appreciate he denies it.That is my point in any other profession he would be suspended and the investigation would decide.
    But it was legal. However 2 will decide his fate
    I never said it was illegal , just would break any internet usage policy in all public sector organisations.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM

    NOT Kaboom. This poll still shows a Labour minority government, the same as the other pollsters, the Labour lead is not big enough for an overall majority.
    I'll take any result that sees removal vans in Downing St.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:
    Who can say what anything looks like these days.
    I would suppose that the question of voting Conservative or Labour didn't actually ask if the questionees were going to vote.... My feeling of Tory MP's and supporters are that they are loyal to the country, and to those who are effective in doing so, unfortunately.......
    Where as the Labour Party has around 500,000 members ready and primed for a snap GE, with funds ready and this time, available to walk the streets, knock the doors, push pamphlets and fliers through letter boxes, run call centres, use social media platforms...
    The Labour Party had all that in June too and still failed to win
    The majority of the PLP and the administration didn't believe Corbyn could win and hoarded resources and leadership skills for the "new" leader who would replace him, this time......
    Half the PLP may be deselected by Momentum?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Indeed sorry to hear that and hope you feel better soon.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Don't forget that UKIPs June total was lowered by them not standing in every seat.
  • Options

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Indeed sorry to hear that and hope you feel better soon.
    Thanks bigjohnowls - you have endured your own problems this year. Hope things are looking up for you and your wife
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    surbiton said:

    Has any ex-police officer actually broken the law over alleged "legal" pornography in Green House of Commons laptop ?

    Seems the Police themselves are attacking the motives and they have breached their Police code. One thing that seems certain Green will not resign over this but it will depend on whether he has breached the Minsterial code on the other matter of harrasement.

    Not a good look for the Police
    Nor is looking at porn on a work computer , that would break any internet usage policies in any public sector organisation.
    Two things

    1) he denies it and unless it is proven he should not resign over it

    2) He has much more of a problem with the harrasment allegations

    Big g agreed , I appreciate he denies it.That is my point in any other profession he would be suspended and the investigation would decide.
    And if an ordinary employee was found to have used company IT to watch porn in company time then dismissal would almost certainly result.
    He might or might not be dismissed, but certainly not on the basis of an allegation made by someone with an axe to grind that porn was found 9 years ago. Unless the Company fancied a big Employment Tribunal Claim.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    I expect that either party would win a working majority on 45/37%. That said, the Tories were on 42/38 with Kantar, who performed very well in both the EU referendum and general election. I think they're both outliers.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Indeed sorry to hear that and hope you feel better soon.
    Thanks bigjohnowls - you have endured your own problems this year. Hope things are looking up for you and your wife
    They are a bit thanks. Here's to a better New Year!
  • Options

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Indeed sorry to hear that and hope you feel better soon.
    Thanks bigjohnowls - you have endured your own problems this year. Hope things are looking up for you and your wife
    They are a bit thanks. Here's to a better New Year!
    Absolutely
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Sean_F said:

    I expect that either party would win a working majority on 45/37%. That said, the Tories were on 42/38 with Kantar, who performed very well in both the EU referendum and general election. I think they're both outliers.
    Sadly I agree about the Outlier bit.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM

    NOT Kaboom. This poll still shows a Labour minority government, the same as the other pollsters, the Labour lead is not big enough for an overall majority.
    I'll take any result that sees removal vans in Downing St.
    That will take at least a week unless Labour wins an overall majority, as I have long said a Corbyn minority government is probably a better result longer term for the Tories than a small Tory majority next time followed by a Labour landslide the next general election after under a moderate Labour leader. For the country rather less so.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Its the GA and muscle relaxant that causes post op fatigue, and the increased metabolism of healing.

    Take it easy, you cannot look after anyone else if you do not look after your own health
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    He is wrong and I have tweeted him to tell him so
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335

    Well nearly a week post op and having taken lots of pain killers I still get very tired but am trying not to be grumpy.

    Hope another week will see me able to contribute housework to my very special lady

    Good night to all and be kind - two of our nieces are in bits today as their Father died.

    Puts life into it's context

    Yes, it does. Look after yourself.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    No it does not, Labour needs a swing of 5.5% for that, the swing here is 5%
    Tory losses to SNP.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    No it does not, Labour needs a swing of 5.5% for that, the swing here is 5%
    Tory losses to SNP.
    Which makes zero impact on Labour's prospects for an overall majority.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Survation
    Lab 45
    Con 37

    KABOOM

    NOT Kaboom. This poll still shows a Labour minority government, the same as the other pollsters, the Labour lead is not big enough for an overall majority.
    I expect circa 20 Labour gains from the SNP next time. An 8% lead would be likely to give Labour a majority of 20 - 30 seats .
This discussion has been closed.