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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No deal, yet

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @matthewcarson: Reminder that the UK started the Brexit negotiations offering no transition period, 20 billion euros maximum, and no special arrangements for NI. Now it’s 2/3 years transition, 60 billion euros, and special arrangements for NI. The Art Of The Deal, by Theresa May.

    The transition is a good thing, surely? And I don’t recall the £20bn being described as the full liabilities. A far cry from the initial €100bn demand though.
    As I understand the deal, worst case we could still pay 100 bn. The commitment is to meet future liabilities that are uncertain in size, the actual bill won't be known for years.
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    For a while it looked like the PM was putting the country first. Oh well.
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    IanB2 said:

    At last, a deal with an upside.
    Anything which leads to Boris being out of the government is a win. I’m no fan of Gove, either....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    As I understand the deal, worst case we could still pay 100 bn.

    I think this is the point where a Brexiteer would post "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
    I'm more puzzled to know how some, or all, of the UK remains part of the EU's Customs Union on leaving the EU. That would seem to be neither in our interest, nor in their interest.
    Lots of parts of the Uk seem to want the deal that the EU hasn't offered NI.

    Baffling.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    Was it only three points for a try at the time?
    just what I was thinking - it changed from four to five points for a try in 1992 so the match must have been one of the first to use that system. Presumably it was slow scoring because everyone was confused about the scoring system.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    RobD said:

    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.

    Or it was the EU trying to bounce her into something. They have form on leaking.
    I finding it very concerning that Remainers are not willing to conscience that as a first instinct. Very concerning indeed.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.

    Or it was the EU trying to bounce her into something. They have form on leaking.
    I finding it very concerning that Remainers are not willing to conscience that as a first instinct. Very concerning indeed.
    The EU can do no wrong, remember?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting electoral fact: since 1992 only two seats in the wider regions of London / south east / East Anglia have moved from Labour to Conservative: Southampton Itchen and Thurrock, compared to about 31 seats across the country as a whole in that category. (Around 74 seats moved the other way. Boundary changes make the comparisons inexact). Southampton Itchen is effectively a swap with Southampton Test between 1992 and 2017, which leaves Thurrock as the only seat to switch in that part of the country since 1992. Those numbers would leave the Tories down 43 seats, but in fact they're only down 18 seats, which means they got a seat bonus of about 25 seats from the various boundary changes since 1992.

    That is very interesting. Those seats are very stickable..
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    I finding it very concerning that Remainers are not willing to conscience that as a first instinct. Very concerning indeed.

    The choreography doesn't support that theory.

    May was quite happy to have lunch with the EU team and hold a press conference, until she had to call Belfast and explain the deal to the DUP...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.

    Or it was the EU trying to bounce her into something. They have form on leaking.
    I finding it very concerning that Remainers are not willing to conscience that as a first instinct. Very concerning indeed.
    Ask the Greeks - all this is very familiar.

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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @matthewcarson: Reminder that the UK started the Brexit negotiations offering no transition period, 20 billion euros maximum, and no special arrangements for NI. Now it’s 2/3 years transition, 60 billion euros, and special arrangements for NI. The Art Of The Deal, by Theresa May.

    The transition is a good thing, surely? And I don’t recall the £20bn being described as the full liabilities. A far cry from the initial €100bn demand though.
    As I understand the deal, worst case we could still pay 100 bn. The commitment is to meet future liabilities that are uncertain in size, the actual bill won't be known for years.
    There's a commitment?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.

    The only truth is that we don't know the truth. People always leak selectively in the end stages of negotiations, either to try and bounce people into a deal, or to undermine a deal, or to see if a particular proposal will fly, or for any number of reasons.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I finding it very concerning that Remainers are not willing to conscience that as a first instinct. Very concerning indeed.

    The choreography doesn't support that theory.

    May was quite happy to have lunch with the EU team and hold a press conference, until she had to call Belfast and explain the deal to the DUP...
    They don’t have to have agreed a deal to have lunch.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    THAT WAS AN ORDER! STEINER'S ASSAULTFOSTER'S AGREEMENT WAS AN ORDER!
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
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    That isn't a rational explanation. Arlene Foster is so weak within her own party that relying on a deal struck with her alone would have been folly.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    No, about 5 yards left of the posts. So nobody spoke to our kicker on the coach back to Marlborough.

    I remember that year's rugby very well. I broke my collarbone at the beginning of the season before, and dislocated my knee at pre-season training the next year, but had managed to get myself in the first team that year. I think I can actually remember every game, which is pretty weird.. The only other rugby match in my life I can remember so clearly was when I was 18, and playing for the local town's second team. I played hooker against Earlestoke prison. I still have nightmares about their front row!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited December 2017
    This reading room sounds great. I wonder how many MPs will (a) go in; (b) read?
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/937727456861130754
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited December 2017

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    Was it only three points for a try at the time?
    Second season of 5 points per try, I think

    edit: @TOPPING is right, was the first season of it
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    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
    I remember going over to Bremen to tell 1000 workers we were moving the factory to Berlin because the government was providing such large incentives there. It's what socialist governments do.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Downing Street sources insist it wasn't just the DUP intervention that meant no deal today - citizens' rights and ECJ still not finalised - if that's true it's less embarrassing but doesn't excatly bode well
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249

    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
    I remember going over to Bremen to tell 1000 workers we were moving the factory to Berlin because the government was providing such large incentives there. It's what socialist governments do.
    The PRC has or had plenty of Special Economic Zones.
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    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969

    I’d have though quite a big part of the party doesn’t want a special status deal.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017
    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting electoral fact: since 1992 only two seats in the wider regions of London / south east / East Anglia have moved from Labour to Conservative: Southampton Itchen and Thurrock, compared to about 31 seats across the country as a whole in that category. (Around 74 seats moved the other way. Boundary changes make the comparisons inexact). Southampton Itchen is effectively a swap with Southampton Test between 1992 and 2017, which leaves Thurrock as the only seat to switch in that part of the country since 1992. Those numbers would leave the Tories down 43 seats, but in fact they're only down 18 seats, which means they got a seat bonus of about 25 seats from the various boundary changes since 1992.

    That is very interesting. Those seats are very stickable..
    There’s been a lot of development in Thurrock, and most of it targeted at owner-occupiers.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Is that advice taken from British Imperialism for Dummies?
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969

    I would suggest that there are a lot of people in the UK outside of the party who feel like this.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
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    We only need regulatory alignment on exports to the EU. Other exports will be at regulations applicable in the importing country. The 80% of domestic trade can be on UK regulations.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Is that advice taken from British Imperialism for Dummies?
    No, it's taken from the obvious logic that the Irish Republic is holding up the deal which it actually wants, Lord only know why.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    I'm not sure we'll ever be sure but it sure looks that way
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    This reading room sounds great. I wonder how many MPs will (a) go in; (b) read?
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/937727456861130754

    Need less DExEU and more Deus Ex Machina at this point.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Back to Green. It looks as though the Met are investigating, and that there could be charges against the leaking officer.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42221737
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    RobD said:

    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969

    I’d have though quite a big part of the party doesn’t want a special status deal.
    Exactly, they are the Conservative and Unionist Party. Not wanting to split up the UK is hardly confined to the Moggmentum wing.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
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    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





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    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Khan's loyalty is to his own interest, not England or the UK. At least the SNP are honest in their ultimate intentions.

    Mr. D, nice to have some good news.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    I doubt any hard brexiteer would be leaking to the Belgian Greens.
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    RobD said:

    Back to Green. It looks as though the Met are investigating, and that there could be charges against the leaking officer.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42221737

    Hurrah
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969

    The problem for May (and the EU side) is that while the deal remains undone it will be open season for critics from all sides. Anyone and everyone who is unhappy about some aspect of it will pile in. And the whole thing will rapidly unravel.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    May is of course doing absolutely the right thing, trying to resolve the final outstanding issue holding up FTA talks ie the Irish border because of the absurd posturing of both the government of the Irish Republic and the DUP. The question is can they both be brought on board
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
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    Mortimer said:

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    That must have been a stonking match. Two tries in total, in Boys Rugby; the matches I saw used to have 2 in the first 15 minutes.... once saw BNC win 60 something - 3...
    I've seen school games end 3-0 and even one scoreless draw. I've also seen my team win 7-5 when I had to disallow a try because it was scored on the wrong pitch: the Millfield team were not happy...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Khan's loyalty is to his own interest, not England or the UK. At least the SNP are honest in their ultimate intentions.

    Mr. D, nice to have some good news.

    I thought his interest was London, seeing as he's the mayor there...

    Anyway in other important news, the UK City of culture 2021 is being announced Thursday - hopefully Coventry can justify the favouritism.
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    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Of course - they created this whole mess :-D

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,694
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    The people of Britain very narrowly voted to Leave the EU. That vote needs to be respected. Brexit has nothing else going for it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    The people of Britain very narrowly voted to Leave the EU. That vote needs to be respected. Brexit has nothing else going for it.
    Judging by the demands Schulz has for coalition in Germany, we got out just in time.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?

    There is no point leaving the EU, and staying in the SM and customs union minimises the damage
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    for clarity, where do you stand on Brexit?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DivineDigit: NI: We don’t want Brexit.

    Scotland: Neither do we.

    Wales: Nor us.

    Cornwall: We want Brexit, but not the part that adversely affects us. Fuck everyone else though.

    Grimsby: What Cornwall said.

    Farmers: Same.

    DM Readers: WHY CAN’T WE BE THE CITY OF CULTURE?

    This is all fine.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,694

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Is that advice taken from British Imperialism for Dummies?
    No, it's taken from the obvious logic that the Irish Republic is holding up the deal which it actually wants, Lord only know why.
    What the RoI wants is Soft Brexit where the whole of the UK stays in the SM + CU. Their strategy is to make the alternatives to that harder. It's a strategy with big risks, but I think rational.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?

    There is no point leaving the EU, and staying in the SM and customs union minimises the damage
    Ah, so it's a move designed for the UK to remain in all but name? Thought so.
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    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    RobD said:

    Back to Green. It looks as though the Met are investigating, and that there could be charges against the leaking officer.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42221737

    Hurrah
    it ain't happened yet
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    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    An anti-immigration Leave must be tested to the point where it is obvious to all that it has failed. That was the referendum prospectus.

    If and when it fails, then Britain can start to move forward again, but not before.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    @DivineDigit: NI: We don’t want Brexit.

    Scotland: Neither do we.

    Wales: Nor us.

    Cornwall: We want Brexit, but not the part that adversely affects us. Fuck everyone else though.

    Grimsby: What Cornwall said.

    Farmers: Same.

    DM Readers: WHY CAN’T WE BE THE CITY OF CULTURE?

    This is all fine.

    Didn't Wales also vote to leave?
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    Mr. P, Wales voted to leave the EU.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    May is of course doing absolutely the right thing, trying to resolve the final outstanding issue holding up FTA talks ie the Irish border because of the absurd posturing of both the government of the Irish Republic and the DUP. The question is can they both be brought on board

    They're Irish
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Scott_P said:

    @DivineDigit: NI: We don’t want Brexit.

    Scotland: Neither do we.

    Wales: Nor us.

    Cornwall: We want Brexit, but not the part that adversely affects us. Fuck everyone else though.

    Grimsby: What Cornwall said.

    Farmers: Same.

    DM Readers: WHY CAN’T WE BE THE CITY OF CULTURE?

    This is all fine.

    NI voted to remain, Scotland voted to remain, Wales voted to leave, Cornwall voted to leave, Grimsby definitely voted to leave.

    Farmers probably voted to remain : https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/nfu-survey-of-members-on-eu-referendum/

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Didn't Wales also vote to leave?

    Mr. P, Wales voted to leave the EU.

    As did farmers and Daily Mail readers.

    See the quotes from the FM of Wales today
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    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    An anti-immigration Leave must be tested to the point where it is obvious to all that it has failed. That was the referendum prospectus.

    If and when it fails, then Britain can start to move forward again, but not before.
    That is the problem. Many (most?) Leavers voted to stop FoM.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    obviously a rhetorical question
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    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    for clarity, where do you stand on Brexit?

    That it has to happen.

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    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Didn't Wales also vote to leave?

    Mr. P, Wales voted to leave the EU.

    As did farmers and Daily Mail readers.

    See the quotes from the FM of Wales today
    Don't forget curry house owners.
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    Mr. P, the First Minister of Wales had the same number of votes as every other member of the electorate.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    An anti-immigration Leave must be tested to the point where it is obvious to all that it has failed. That was the referendum prospectus.

    If and when it fails, then Britain can start to move forward again, but not before.
    Replacing FoM with a work permits system is hardly 'anti immigration', 'controlled immigration' maybe
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    RobD said:

    Also, people like this in the party is another issue for May:

    https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/937695295739219969

    I’d have though quite a big part of the party doesn’t want a special status deal.
    As suspected:

    Tory MPs have just been briefed by Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s chief of staff, and Brexit Minister Steve Baker on what has happened in Brussels today.

    The possibility of regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic post-Brexit has apparently not gone down well with Remain-backing MPs or Brexiteers.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/04/brexit-talks-deadline-no-breakthrough-ireland-theresa-may-heads/
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    Incidentally, those seeking a departure in name only might win a tactical victory at the price of prolonging and deepening divisions. I won't give the whole spiel again, but this would benefit the far right, yet again.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    you wallet hiding cheese eating surrender monkey :-)

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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
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    Something's gotta give here.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:

    @DivineDigit: NI: We don’t want Brexit.

    Scotland: Neither do we.

    Wales: Nor us.

    Cornwall: We want Brexit, but not the part that adversely affects us. Fuck everyone else though.

    Grimsby: What Cornwall said.

    Farmers: Same.

    DM Readers: WHY CAN’T WE BE THE CITY OF CULTURE?

    This is all fine.

    A good summation. When the country is held to ransom by the DUP time to jump off the white cliffs and swim for your lives.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Neither will the UUP, apparently.
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Something's gotta give here.

    And the easiest would be Brexit
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    Mr. Glenn, that is interesting. And, as Mr. D pointed out, the UUP (as well as Soubry, not a renowned opponent of the EU) supports the DUP stance.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    for clarity, where do you stand on Brexit?

    That it has to happen.

    your version presumably
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,804
    Once more, "in the absence of agreed solutions" is key wording. The keeping in step with the EU is meant to be, in effect, an extra bit of transition to ensure the border with Ireland is agreed on a mutual basis before we pursue divergence. The DUP line means this will have to cover the v whole of the UK.

    Over the next couple of days TM's job will be to ensure this understanding is got across to all who might scupper it before returning to Brussels. Whether proposing such an open ended slice of transition like this will fly with Boris and Gove or with MPs who might be thinking of the 1922 committee is another matter.
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: The PM will return to Brussels to continue negotiations with Juncker and Barnier on Wednesday after PMQs, I'm told. A late night is in store.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The PM will return to Brussels to continue negotiations with Juncker and Barnier on Wednesday after PMQs, I'm told. A late night is in store.

    Sounds like they want to capitalise on progress already made? Good, better than waiting until next week.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Yeah, from round about the point the English first tried to colonize them.
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    Owen's right, but tweeting about it while self-identifying as "radical left" isn't particularly smart. But then he is desperate to get back into the Corbynites' good books...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.
    For a unionist party to alienate two unions is some achievement.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Is Sri Lanka too difficult?
This discussion has been closed.