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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No deal, yet

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    Scott_P said:

    @DivineDigit: NI: We don’t want Brexit.

    Scotland: Neither do we.

    Wales: Nor us.

    Wales voted to leave, you REMOANER twat :lol:
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    The radical left are anti-EU.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Wales voted to leave

    Do try and keep up...
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.
    For a unionist party to alienate two unions is some achievement.
    I'm waiting for HYUFD to come along and say Mrs May isn't a Tory any moment now.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jamieross7/status/937736609319079937

    Isn't her proposal for a hard border between England and Scotland more shambolic?
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    Can't wait to hand back the keys to PB to Mike tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/937736568927936514
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Is Sri Lanka too difficult?
    Ceylon was a Crown Colony separate from the Indian Empire.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsUK: ICM/Guardian:

    CON 40 (-1)
    LAB 41 (=)
    LD 8 (+1)
    UKIP 4 (-1)
    GRN 3 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    The deadlock is broken! First ICM… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/937736973980192768
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    Scott_P said:

    Wales voted to leave

    Do try and keep up...
    Wales:

    Leave vote 52.5%
    Remain vote 47.5%
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    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    for clarity, where do you stand on Brexit?

    That it has to happen.

    your version presumably

    My version would certainly do the least damage.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    Good point.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Oh yes I agree. The Irish have had a chip on their shoulder about the British for centuries. But May knew this when she opted for hard Brexit - it was obvious that they would try to throw spanners in the process in the hope that it could be stopped or, if not, that they could avoid a hard border. Their attitude is quite logical, could have been predicted and until lunchtime today was bearing fruit.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    RobD said:

    I doubt any hard brexiteer would be leaking to the Belgian Greens.
    Belgian Greens = Brussels Sprouts?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,264

    The radical left are anti-EU.
    Nevertheless the high ground of economic competence has been surrendered.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2017
    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Religion responsible for their separations.

    Sad.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsUK: ICM/Guardian:

    CON 40 (-1)
    LAB 41 (=)
    LD 8 (+1)
    UKIP 4 (-1)
    GRN 3 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    The deadlock is broken! First ICM… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/937736973980192768

    This reduces Labour's rating with the rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls still further to around 41%, the same as they got at the general election. They're making no progress but the Tories are losing a bit to other parties.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    you think "could" but I suspect that considerably overstates the prospect
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    I doubt any hard brexiteer would be leaking to the Belgian Greens.
    Belgian Greens = Brussels Sprouts?
    Certainly pooh-poohs the idea that this was a Brexiteer plot to scupper the deal.
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    Owen's right, but tweeting about it while self-identifying as "radical left" isn't particularly smart. But then he is desperate to get back into the Corbynites' good books...
    The best argument against Brexit is encouraging that pillock.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2017
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    rpjs said:

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Yeah, from round about the point the English first tried to colonize them.
    Was that before or after the Irish tried to colonise Scotland?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Yep - today is the day that Cake And eat It finally died. From here on in, it is all about choices. And if we get to the FTA discussions, the choices are going to be stark. What the government has now conceded:
    1. They do not need us more than we need them.
    2. We do not hold all the cards.
    3. German car manufacturers are not going to ride to the rescue.
    4. No deal is not better than a bad deal.
    5. The EU27 will not have to whistle for their money.
    6. The EU27 want a deal and are not seeking to sabotage progress.
    7. The UK has to find a solution to the Irish border question.
    8. The EU27 are not going to fragment and fall out with each other.
    9. A party that got 36% of the vote in June 2017 in a part of the UK that voted Remain in June 2016 has a veto over the British government's strategy.
    10. The only way forward is to offer the EU27 a deal they are happy to accept.





    for clarity, where do you stand on Brexit?

    That it has to happen.

    your version presumably
    Once people accept Brexit is entirely about damage limitation we can move forward. We're not there yet, but on our way...
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,775
    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975

    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Religion responsible for their separations.

    Sad.
    It’s more than ‘just’ religion in Ireland though, isn’t it. According to one side they were thrown off their land to accomodate settlers from the ‘mainland’ who also happened to believe in a different form of Christianity.
    So there’s a long standing sense of having been hard done to, plus the problem with the newcomers being heretics. And what’s more, heretical landgrabbers who were favoured by the government!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it
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    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Is Sri Lanka too difficult?
    Ceylon was a Crown Colony separate from the Indian Empire.
    But the ethnic groups (Tamils and Sinhalese) are related to those on the mainland (unlike the overwhelming majority of Burma's ethnic groups).
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975

    rpjs said:

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Yeah, from round about the point the English first tried to colonize them.
    Was that before or after the Irish tried to colonise Scotland?
    Actually, the English ere only there as foot-soldiers. The original trouble makers were Normans.
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    Mr. Omnium, I agree.

    Anyway, I must be off.
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    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the DUP to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these bowler hat wearing bigots.
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    The radical left are anti-EU.

    Galloway himself described the EU's divorce bill as akin to "mafia demands".
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975

    The radical left are anti-EU.

    Galloway himself described the EU's divorce bill as akin to "mafia demands".
    I wouldn’t describe Galloway of being representative of anything but George Galloway.
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    What happens when the movable body meets two opposing unstoppable forces?
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    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the EU to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these beret and onion wearing bigots.


    :innocent:
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Evening - Much happening? :D
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    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    We caused the problem. It is up to us to solve it. Mrs May clearly thought she had. The Orange Order said No, though. It's good at that ;-)

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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,775

    What happens when the movable body meets two opposing unstoppable forces?
    The toothpaste goes to the wrong end of the tube.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited December 2017

    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the DUP to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these bowler hat wearing bigots.

    they own you

    bring on Jezza

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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I'm getting increasingly fed up with this continuing mush and slush and fuff and guff. Let's just have an immediate hard Brexit, with no divorce bill, no Article 50 timetable, no deal, and Boris Gove-Mogg as PM.

    There doesn't have to be a hard border in Ireland. Let it continue to flow freely just as it is now. If pedantic lawyers try to pretend that there needs to be a hard border "somewhere", let them build it themselves with the sweat of their own elbows.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    edited December 2017
    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Doh!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

    so gerrymandering

    have you been to Derry ?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    We caused the problem. It is up to us to solve it. Mrs May clearly thought she had. The Orange Order said No, though. It's good at that ;-)

    oh dear the old OO story, is there any tired cliche you wont wheel out ?
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    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the DUP to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these bowler hat wearing bigots.

    they own you

    bring on Jezza

    I'm looking forward to PM Jezza,, I reckon the only way the country falls out of love with Jez is after they've had five years of PM Jezza.

    I'll be viewing it from afar but I'll be remind Tory Leavers Corbyn as PM is their progeny.
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

    so gerrymandering

    have you been to Derry ?

    Never have. I hear it's like a foreign country.

    Gerrymandering is one way of putting it. And if it happens, I imagine that is how it would feel for many in Northern Ireland. Which takes me back to my original point. They'd just have to suck it up, of course.

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    BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    Who called a needless election earlier this year that produced a situation which produced a result that gave the DUP any say in the matter?

    And who choose to negotiate a partnership with the DUP?

    If May chose to give the DUP the influence they have to scupper her negotiations, then she has only herself to blame
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Yeah, from round about the point the English first tried to colonize them.
    Was that before or after the Irish tried to colonise Scotland?
    ITYM the Scots colonizing Caledonia.
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    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2017
    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    There are two possible explanations for today.

    One is that May agreed to a lot of stuff but did not clear it with the DUP and so has backed away from an agreement at the last minute.

    The other is that she did not agree and that the EU has tried to bounce her into an agreement through leaking the details of their proposal.

    All the Remainers on here all day have assumed it was the first. It is equally as likely it was the second and there appears to be no evidence to support one contention over the other.

    I would like to think that the Remainers would learn a lesson from this, but I very much doubt they will.

    D'unt matter which it is. She is PM and it's her job to get us a good deal. This she seems manifestly not able to do. Although of course we shall wait and see.
    It is not her job to get us a 'good deal' - whatever one of those is. It is her job to run the country effectively for the good of its people.
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    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Colonial Brexit is a pretty virulent strain among the hardcore Leavers.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

    so gerrymandering

    have you been to Derry ?

    Never have. I hear it's like a foreign country.

    Gerrymandering is one way of putting it. And if it happens, I imagine that is how it would feel for many in Northern Ireland. Which takes me back to my original point. They'd just have to suck it up, of course.

    people who have been pariahs all their live get used to it.

    it's you who will have to suck it up

    bring on Jezza
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    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the DUP to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these bowler hat wearing bigots.

    they own you

    bring on Jezza

    I'm looking forward to PM Jezza,, I reckon the only way the country falls out of love with Jez is after they've had five years of PM Jezza.

    I'll be viewing it from afar but I'll be remind Tory Leavers Corbyn as PM is their progeny.
    Corbyn as PM is the bastard son of Margaret Beckett and Tony Blair

    Cameron and Osborne were the godparents
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Andrew Rosindell was the young Tory who called for flogging and hanging to be restored at the 1993 Conservative party conference.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,264
    JohnLoony said:

    I'm getting increasingly fed up with this continuing mush and slush and fuff and guff. Let's just have an immediate hard Brexit, with no divorce bill, no Article 50 timetable, no deal, and Boris Gove-Mogg as PM.

    There doesn't have to be a hard border in Ireland. Let it continue to flow freely just as it is now. If pedantic lawyers try to pretend that there needs to be a hard border "somewhere", let them build it themselves with the sweat of their own elbows.

    You don't need to try so hard to rejustify your username, John.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

    so gerrymandering

    have you been to Derry ?

    Never have. I hear it's like a foreign country.

    Gerrymandering is one way of putting it. And if it happens, I imagine that is how it would feel for many in Northern Ireland. Which takes me back to my original point. They'd just have to suck it up, of course.

    no the past is a foreign country

    you appear to want to dwell there
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    Can't we do a China and treat Northern Ireland as our Hong Kong.

    One country, two systems and all that jazz?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's high risk, but it could work. Theresa May's calculation up to now is to be the hardest of Brexits and never be outflanked. Going for soft Brexit may split the hard core. Some hardliners will resist it; others will bank a form of Brexit even if it isn't what they want.

    What on earth makes you think that's been the strategy? If 'Hard Brexit' (for which read - Brexit) were May's preferred option, do you not think the country would have been softened up to a no deal scenario?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. Grss, welcome to pb.com.

    Had Remain won 52%, I can't see the likes of Khan or the SNP calling for those parts of the nation that voted to Leave to do so separately. It's a rancid reductionism of politics.

    When the Scots voted to stay in the UK, was there a call for those parts that voted to leave to separate?

    *sighs*

    But it wasn't his suggestion. It was being proposed by the government for Northern Island. He just wanted the same favourable terms for his own region.
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    rpjs said:

    If you are looking to blame someone for things not going entirely according to plan today, surely it's the Irish Republic who are the troublemakers.

    Time for the Republic to rejoin the UK :)
    That's slightly less likely than a reunification of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    Religion responsible for their separations.

    Sad.
    It’s more than ‘just’ religion in Ireland though, isn’t it. According to one side they were thrown off their land to accomodate settlers from the ‘mainland’ who also happened to believe in a different form of Christianity.
    So there’s a long standing sense of having been hard done to, plus the problem with the newcomers being heretics. And what’s more, heretical landgrabbers who were favoured by the government!
    Maybe the Saxons in England should start protesting about those Normans who came over here and stole their lands?

    After all it is only a matter of a couple of centuries difference.
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    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Yes I think that's a fair assessment, but the other big takeaways from today are that

    1) May was prepared to threaten NI's indivisibility from the UK in order to get a deal; and

    2) She caved in to DUP when they rumbled her, thus allowing them to be seen wield a veto.

    The whole Brexit process is now irrevocably bound up with in the complexities of Irish politics in which it is very, very hard for anyone to be seen to lose face and this makes what was already a hugely challenging process many times more difficult.
    I think we've been here before.
    But we didn't learn the lessons so here we are again.
    and what are the lessons?
    That a hard border cannot be created and this means remaining in the customs union. And that the Irish Republic is going to use its leverage as member of the EU to try and take steps toward a united Ireland.
    The border's only been there for just shy of 100 years. The Irish have been trouble for much longer than that.
    Yeah, from round about the point the English first tried to colonize them.
    Was that before or after the Irish tried to colonise Scotland?
    ITYM the Scots colonizing Caledonia.
    But they came from Ireland originally?
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    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.

    guffaw

    when immediately presented with the cash bill for NI and letting two Mrs Rochestesr out of the attic to sit at the family dinner table how do you think the citizens of RoI will take it

    I am thinking more along the lines that voters in Great Britain will not be inclined to let the Orange Order dictate British government policy - especially if it means the loss of British jobs and falling living standards. That does not lead to unification, but it may lead to other things - such as far fewer NI reps in the Commons. We'll see.

    so gerrymandering

    have you been to Derry ?

    Never have. I hear it's like a foreign country.

    Gerrymandering is one way of putting it. And if it happens, I imagine that is how it would feel for many in Northern Ireland. Which takes me back to my original point. They'd just have to suck it up, of course.

    no the past is a foreign country

    you appear to want to dwell there

    Yep, I'd happily go back to 2015!

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    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    The radical left are anti-EU.

    Galloway himself described the EU's divorce bill as akin to "mafia demands".
    The vast majority of Labour Party members, Momentum supporters included, are anti-Brexit. No self-respecting Labour member would be seen dead supporting a cause promoted by Farage and Trump, not to mention Kate Hoey and Frank Field. Paraiahs all.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Andrew Rosindell was the young Tory who called for flogging and hanging to be restored at the 1993 Conservative party conference.
    That's another policy that goes down well with certain Brexiteers.

    Andrew Lilico: "Corporal punishment is earthy, it connects us as a society to pain and blood..."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/10/on-judicial-cor.html
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    Can't we do a China and treat Northern Ireland as our Hong Kong.

    One country, two systems and all that jazz?


    It depends who the "we" is.

    Understandably NI protestants do not want to be nudged closer to Ireland and away from the rest of the UK..
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Final season of House of Cards to start production in 2018 without Spacey"

    https://news.sky.com/story/final-season-of-house-of-cards-to-start-production-in-2018-without-spacey-11156752
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Did we lose a war, I mean who the hell are the DUP to tell us what we can do.

    Freedom for England and GB from these bowler hat wearing bigots.

    they own you

    bring on Jezza

    I'm looking forward to PM Jezza,, I reckon the only way the country falls out of love with Jez is after they've had five years of PM Jezza.

    I'll be viewing it from afar but I'll be remind Tory Leavers Corbyn as PM is their progeny.
    Corbyn as PM is the bastard son of Margaret Beckett and Tony Blair

    Cameron and Osborne were the godparents
    Along with Farage, Gove and Johnson.
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    IanB2 said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I'm getting increasingly fed up with this continuing mush and slush and fuff and guff. Let's just have an immediate hard Brexit, with no divorce bill, no Article 50 timetable, no deal, and Boris Gove-Mogg as PM.

    There doesn't have to be a hard border in Ireland. Let it continue to flow freely just as it is now. If pedantic lawyers try to pretend that there needs to be a hard border "somewhere", let them build it themselves with the sweat of their own elbows.

    You don't need to try so hard to rejustify your username, John.
    Je suis John.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Andrew Rosindell was the young Tory who called for flogging and hanging to be restored at the 1993 Conservative party conference.
    That's another policy that goes down well with certain Brexiteers.

    Andrew Lilico: "Corporal punishment is earthy, it connects us as a society to pain and blood..."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/10/on-judicial-cor.html
    That article is roughly the same vintage as Damian Green's alleged computer problems.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
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    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    Corbyn wouldn't have the votes to do too much Marxist BS with that.

    Unless he called a second election, but he'd need Tory support for that, or to repeal the FTPA with SNP support.
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    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Colonial Brexit is a pretty virulent strain among the hardcore Leavers.
    Which explains your consistent anti-UK overseas territories trolling angle.
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    It kills off the chances of FTAs with most countries, so why not just go the whole hog? Can't see the Brexiteers accepting it. At some stage the PM really is going to have to face them down.

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    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    That depends on your presumption that it is impossible to do good trade deals outside the EU. It also depends on the presumption that all trade deals done by the EU will be in the best interests of the UK.

    The only thing that is absolutely certain is that if we are inside the Customs Union we cannot do our own trade deals. It also removes the possibility of joining EFTA and so cuts off a route for returning to the EEA and the Single Market - which is a far more valuable position than being in the CU.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.
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    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.

    Ireland rejoining the UK is probably the best economic strategy for Ireland but not of course the best political strategy.

    So Ireland politicians will not take the best course for the well being of the people - rather as is being said about Brexit for the UK.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If that means we can't really escape the CAP they can take a running jump.
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    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    Corbyn wouldn't have the votes to do too much Marxist BS with that.

    Unless he called a second election, but he'd need Tory support for that, or to repeal the FTPA with SNP support.

    The last thing Corbyn wants is another GE now. He'd be saddled with a PLP he cannot control while Brexit is still a live issue.

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    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    That depends on your presumption that it is impossible to do good trade deals outside the EU. It also depends on the presumption that all trade deals done by the EU will be in the best interests of the UK.

    The only thing that is absolutely certain is that if we are inside the Customs Union we cannot do our own trade deals. It also removes the possibility of joining EFTA and so cuts off a route for returning to the EEA and the Single Market - which is a far more valuable position than being in the CU.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

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    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    Corbyn wouldn't have the votes to do too much Marxist BS with that.

    Unless he called a second election, but he'd need Tory support for that, or to repeal the FTPA with SNP support.

    The last thing Corbyn wants is another GE now. He'd be saddled with a PLP he cannot control while Brexit is still a live issue.

    When are we going on the lash?
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    RoyalBlue said:

    If that means we can't really escape the CAP they can take a running jump.
    I actually might think there's something in this.

    Need to see details first though..
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    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    That depends on your presumption that it is impossible to do good trade deals outside the EU. It also depends on the presumption that all trade deals done by the EU will be in the best interests of the UK.

    The only thing that is absolutely certain is that if we are inside the Customs Union we cannot do our own trade deals. It also removes the possibility of joining EFTA and so cuts off a route for returning to the EEA and the Single Market - which is a far more valuable position than being in the CU.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413

    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.

    Ireland rejoining the UK is probably the best economic strategy for Ireland but not of course the best political strategy.

    So Ireland politicians will not take the best course for the well being of the people - rather as is being said about Brexit for the UK.
    It could never be a political union - ever. But there could, and possibly will be if the UK successfully entangles itself from the EU, be closer economic cooperation, the stronger because it would be divorced forever from being a political project.

    I don't want this to happen - I would prefer us to go it alone, but it's not wholly unimaginable.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    RoyalBlue said:

    If that means we can't really escape the CAP they can take a running jump.
    No - in Ag terms it would be NI adherence to the SPS rules. Levels of subsidy wouldn't change much for many years anyway, and the levels probably wouldn't lower, but simply be based on different criteria. Regulation and Subsidy should be seen as different level issues.
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    It kills off the chances of FTAs with most countries, so why not just go the whole hog? Can't see the Brexiteers accepting it. At some stage the PM really is going to have to face them down.

    Also wrong.
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    Kelly Sotherton wins the bronze medal in the hepthalon at the Beijing Olympics - nine years after it finished.

    Sotherton also won heptathlon bronze at the 2004 Athens Olympics and had already been moved to third in the Beijing 4x400m relay after Belarus and Russia's disqualification.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/42229420
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    Professor Scully looks at Welsh public attitudes to Brexit:

    https://www.rogerscully.com/blog/2017/12/4/53z94a0hope4k7lm6ry4eqlfj4sesk
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If he wants to make life difficult for us, I see no reason why we should bend over backwards to help him.
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    Sterling change charts beyond boring now. Unless it's a significant % move. Which it wasn't today
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    Andrew Rosindell MP on Sky saying that Ireland should leave the EU and "come with us"...

    Good Lord, I thought that particular cretinous idea had died an unlamented death a month or two ago.
    Colonial Brexit is a pretty virulent strain among the hardcore Leavers.
    Which explains your consistent anti-UK overseas territories trolling angle.
    Wrong, I love places like Gibraltar and The Falklands*, but I also realise The UK engages in realpolitik for the great good, such as with the Chagossians.

    Northern Ireland is a historical anachronism based on Papist fiat which has no place in today's world.

    Northern Ireland might have to take one for the team, they are the modern day Diego Garcia.


    *For the record, I place Spain and Argentina one rung above France.
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    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
This discussion has been closed.