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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    surbiton said:

    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !

    Haven't you been reading HYUFD and Sunil's posts? The election was a triumph
    In purely partisan terms, I think the 2017 election was pretty optimal for Labour - so much better than expected that it made Corbyn a credible candidate for Number 10, but leaving the Tories in power for one term longer when they were intellectually exhausted (just as Labour was in 2010).

    But I do feel genuinely sad at the sheer scale of the current shambles, and sorry for Mrs May, who just doesn't seem quite equal to the difficulties of the job.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Excitable (and in many cases somewhat undemocratic) Remainers are forgetting the golden rule of Brexit:

    Anything that cheers Remainers ends up harming their cause.

    Do you really think the cause of Remain has been set back since June 24th? That the objective chance of there being no Brexit is now slimmer than it was in the aftermath of the vote?
    Remainers keep getting rather excited about hiccoughs; yet Brexit continues to mean Brexit.

    What is hilarious is that they keep making the same mistake...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Scott_P said:

    MikeL said:

    Funny how things move on - it's the EU Withdrawal Bill Committee Stage Day 4 (out of 8) today - remember how excited everyone was about that a couple of weeks ago - it now seems to be taking place almost unnoticed.

    Have there been any votes so far today?

    Tezza had to fly back from Brussels to take part
    Thanks.

    No votes so far today per BBC website Parliament commentary - looks like all votes are in one block today at 10pm approx.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    yet Brexit continues to mean Brexit.

    Which means as little as it did the day that phrase was coined
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Excitable (and in many cases somewhat undemocratic) Remainers are forgetting the golden rule of Brexit:

    Anything that cheers Remainers ends up harming their cause.

    Do you really think the cause of Remain has been set back since June 24th? That the objective chance of there being no Brexit is now slimmer than it was in the aftermath of the vote?
    Remainers keep getting rather excited about hiccoughs; yet Brexit continues to mean Brexit.

    What is hilarious is that they keep making the same mistake...
    That Brexit means Brexit is to the advantage of Remain. Brexiteers want it to mean something else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    surbiton said:

    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !

    Haven't you been reading HYUFD and Sunil's posts? The election was a triumph
    She did solve the indyref2 problem though by almost halving the SNP's seats
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    No. We cannot end free movement in the single market and nor does ending free movement mean no immigration, it would simply be replaced by work permits.

    Though of course if Blair had introduced transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 free movement would not now still be such an issue and we would probably have narrowly voted Remain.
    Indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    Tory voters almost universally support Brexit now, most for ideological reasons and most voted Leave
    Because the others are drifting away.
    They aren't actually, if anything the biggest shift since June has been from Tory to UKIP as they think the Tories are not pro Brexit enough
    This year the gap between Tory+UKIP and Labour has dropped from 25% to 3%.
    So what, Corbyn won about 20% of the UKIP vote himself and further squeezed the LD and Green votes.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    yet Brexit continues to mean Brexit.

    Which means as little as it did the day that phrase was coined
    It means that Remainers should stop whinging and accept the result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The Survation Scotland poll suggests 7 Labour gains from the SNP. In reality, I would expect Labour to pick up a lot more.
    You would hope not expect
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    Monaco?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    Blue passports?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    It means that Remainers should stop whinging and accept the result.

    Sorry, I can't hear you over the whining Brexiteers...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    surbiton said:

    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !

    Haven't you been reading HYUFD and Sunil's posts? The election was a triumph
    In purely partisan terms, I think the 2017 election was pretty optimal for Labour - so much better than expected that it made Corbyn a credible candidate for Number 10, but leaving the Tories in power for one term longer when they were intellectually exhausted (just as Labour was in 2010).

    But I do feel genuinely sad at the sheer scale of the current shambles, and sorry for Mrs May, who just doesn't seem quite equal to the difficulties of the job.
    May is aiming for the only possible trade deal which respects the Leave vote, a FTA that ends Free Movement, even Churchill, Blair or Thatcher would have had problems trying to get such a deal while appeasing hardline Brexiteer backbenchers, the EU, the Irish government and the DUP
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Join the club! I have said from the day of the result that this wont happen.

    However, it needs a public 'think again' vote, rather than some fudgy mess imho.
    On what possible basis could you have that? Referendums should be avoided at all costs precisely because they simply have no possible reversal. Best of three? Best of seven?

    The worst thing a government can ever do is listen too closely to the electorate, apart from the other worst thing, which is to listen too little. (I think I just made that up but sounds very Kennedy)
    It sounds very Churchillian.
    You are, by a very wide margin indeed, my new favourite person!

    (Unless it turns out that I didn't make it up, and then you're just a bit too smart for your own good)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    Monaco?
    I think San Marino might be the other.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    Blue passports?
    And we don't even need to leave the EU for that, as the maroon standard is totally voluntary. Mind you, I hope we do keep the situation where the British and American passports are different colours: it's confusing enough that we have two maroon (one British, one Irish) and two blue (both American) passports in our drawer.
  • NEW THREAD

  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    The government could have avoided this after the election by coming up with a version of Brexit that has broad cross-party parliamentary support rather than try and carry on regardless as if the election result meant that there is wide support for Hard Brexit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    surbiton said:

    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !

    Haven't you been reading HYUFD and Sunil's posts? The election was a triumph
    In purely partisan terms, I think the 2017 election was pretty optimal for Labour - so much better than expected that it made Corbyn a credible candidate for Number 10, but leaving the Tories in power for one term longer when they were intellectually exhausted (just as Labour was in 2010).

    But I do feel genuinely sad at the sheer scale of the current shambles, and sorry for Mrs May, who just doesn't seem quite equal to the difficulties of the job.
    Top spinning their Nick.

    How did 'one more Heave' work for you in 92 and 2015?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    In light of the apocalyptic tone tonight I've taken precautions such that the Corbyn police won't uncover my secrets. I've written them down in joined-up writing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    chloe said:

    The government could have avoided this after the election by coming up with a version of Brexit that has broad cross-party parliamentary support rather than try and carry on regardless as if the election result meant that there is wide support for Hard Brexit.

    Wrong, even the Labour Party manifesto supported ending free movement and opposed staying permanently in the single market
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The Survation Scotland poll suggests 7 Labour gains from the SNP. In reality, I would expect Labour to pick up a lot more.
    You would hope not expect
    No - I actually expect many more gains at the expense of the SNP.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The Survation Scotland poll suggests 7 Labour gains from the SNP. In reality, I would expect Labour to pick up a lot more.
    You would hope not expect
    The swing in Scotland will be so far from uniform it won't be funny.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The research from the 2017 results has about 20 SNP seats where a very small percentage swing will have the SLP moving from second to taking them, and if I remember correctly, a couple from the Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The research from the 2017 results has about 20 SNP seats where a very small percentage swing will have the SLP moving from second to taking them, and if I remember correctly, a couple from the Tories
    Yet the latest Scottish Westminster poll has virtually no movement from June
This discussion has been closed.