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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

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    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    As Davidson specifically calls for Scotland not to get a differentiated deal which woud help the Scottish economy, I tend to disagree with you.

    She calls for Scotland and the rest of the UK to get what was agreed for NI.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Based on her mood last night, I wouldn't be surprised if it is good cop, bad cop, *by the Brits*

    Getting the DUP to veto her own offer is a novel way of avoiding an Irish veto.
    So she goes back to the EU and says "I need more"
    The first leak of the 'false offer' was from RTE. That puts the Irish govt's fingerprints on it. It would suggest that its the EU who thinks that scuppering what was a reasonable agreement is in their benefit.

    They might still think that there is a possibility of getting a better govt in the UK to negotiate with.
    They were trying to bounce May into a different deal to the one she'd agreed? Thought she would accept anything to move on?
    Or they think in a choice between Remain and No Deal, remain would win?
    This all sounds like too much over-analysis...my take on it is that T May was characteristically guarding sensitive information (she has a long track record of this with HM Queen, the Tory party generally and her cabinet colleagues and voters) and the DUP didnt like it.....Ulster said "no" to paraphrase the late Dr Paisley. The Irish govt are scared of a no deal situation and were perhaps a little over enthusiastic and forgot that the DUP needed to be kept happy
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017
    Roger said:

    Can the BT commentators please stop talking over the third umpire.

    Just shut the eff up.

    Graeme Swann's spent too much time in Australia. He treats hs fellow commentatoress like she's a silly schoolgirl. Lucky he's being employed by BT not the BBC or he'd be on the naughty step with Damien Green
    You know he works for TMS as well right? As does the likes of Sir Geoffrey. As has Alison Mitchell, while Swann was working for TMS.

    You must have to work really hard to be such a pillock.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    I imagine there is a majority in the Commons for what Ruth Davidson is suggesting. I also suspect this is what testerday was really all about. Good news.

    You seem to be giving May credit for having a plan. That seems most unlikely.

    But I can't argue that she will use this as an excuse to sell out on EU regulation. Which will also require another sellout on ECJ (only the ECJ can have jurisdiction over EU regulations). And another sellout on FOM will be involved. Question is, will the Leavers in the Tory party stand up and stop her?
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    JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 378
    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,370
    edited December 2017
    The Barmy Army are awesome, that was epic trolling
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017
    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...
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    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Peston seems to agree with you.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937985818920194048
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    Talking of dodgy cricket related things, Cricviz model is still horribly broken. It gave England a 21% chance of winning when they were 40/0. There is no way in the history of cricket that a team batting 4th gets ~350 to win 20% of the time.
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    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    I think you're being harsh, the Aussie pitches are harder and bouncier than in England.

    Plus Hawkeye has its own flaws.

    http://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/shock-drs-howler-questions-accuracy-of-hawkeye-technology/news-story/3878095d2386cd9e8192a4ccbf523f83
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    edited December 2017

    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    They have until the new ball arrives. Counter’s reset then.
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    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    They have until the new ball arrives. Counter’s reset then.
    The rules changed in October, they aren't reset any more, it is just two for the innings now.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Based on her mood last night, I wouldn't be surprised if it is good cop, bad cop, *by the Brits*

    Getting the DUP to veto her own offer is a novel way of avoiding an Irish veto.
    So she goes back to the EU and says "I need more"
    The first leak of the 'false offer' was from RTE. That puts the Irish govt's fingerprints on it. It would suggest that its the EU who thinks that scuppering what was a reasonable agreement is in their benefit.

    They might still think that there is a possibility of getting a better govt in the UK to negotiate with.
    They were trying to bounce May into a different deal to the one she'd agreed? Thought she would accept anything to move on?
    Or they think in a choice between Remain and No Deal, remain would win?
    This all sounds like too much over-analysis...my take on it is that T May was characteristically guarding sensitive information (she has a long track record of this with HM Queen, the Tory party generally and her cabinet colleagues and voters) and the DUP didnt like it.....Ulster said "no" to paraphrase the late Dr Paisley. The Irish govt are scared of a no deal situation and were perhaps a little over enthusiastic and forgot that the DUP needed to be kept happy
    Yes I think you're right. Cock up, not conspiracy. But now Brexit is inextricably tangled up with the delicate and divisive politics of Ireland and that is seriously bad news.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972

    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    They have until the new ball arrives. Counter’s reset then.
    The rules changed in October, they aren't reset any more, it is just two for the innings now.
    Seems a bit hard in a Test Match. Hope it was an Aussie idea to change, though!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RoyalBlue said:

    If Ruth Davidson has not agreed her remarks with the Prime Minister, I will not be the only Tory to think much less of her.

    I wonder how the Scottish fishermen are going to take Ruth's conversion to soft Brexit.
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    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    Not quite - the EU and UK agreed a deal. The Irish government then started causing last-minute difficulties (as is proven by the fact that they held a Cabinet meeting just a couple of hours before the Juncker-May photoshoot was supposed to be happening). It seems that frantic last-minute negotiations were carried out to try to placate the Irish government, but that came up against problems with the DUP.

    It does look very much as the the EU were as surprised by the Irish government's behaviour as everyone else. Hopefully they'll be doing some late arm-twisting to correct this.

    Of course, the root cause here is partly the EU's daft sequencing diktat, which inter alia gave a loaded gun to the Irish.
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    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    They have until the new ball arrives. Counter’s reset then.
    The rules changed in October, they aren't reset any more, it is just two for the innings now.
    Seems a bit hard in a Test Match. Hope it was an Aussie idea to change, though!
    It was part of the change where unsuccessful reviews which are umpire's call means you don't lose a review.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017

    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    I think you're being harsh, the Aussie pitches are harder and bouncier than in England.

    Plus Hawkeye has its own flaws.

    http://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/shock-drs-howler-questions-accuracy-of-hawkeye-technology/news-story/3878095d2386cd9e8192a4ccbf523f83
    There is a definite problem with the VirtualEye. There has been at least 3 occasions in this test match where you can see from side on that the ball will hit somewhere very close to top of the wickets and VirtualEye has had it sailing way over the top.

    It uses a massively inferior technological approach.
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    I imagine there is a majority in the Commons for what Ruth Davidson is suggesting. I also suspect this is what testerday was really all about. Good news.

    You seem to be giving May credit for having a plan. That seems most unlikely.

    But I can't argue that she will use this as an excuse to sell out on EU regulation. Which will also require another sellout on ECJ (only the ECJ can have jurisdiction over EU regulations). And another sellout on FOM will be involved. Question is, will the Leavers in the Tory party stand up and stop her?

    Yep - I could be giving May too much credit, it is true :-)

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    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Her statement says that if the PM thinks NI requires regulatory alignment with the EU, then it should apply to all of the UK not just NI. That seems pretty clear to me. Unless, of course, the PM does not think that NI requires regulatory alignment!!

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Stat-tastic:
    "Root would become the first captain in 55 years to win a match in Australia after scoring higher than 50 in 4th innings if England win here.. the last captain to achieve that was E Dexter in 1962-1963"
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Peston seems to agree with you.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937985818920194048
    How can an experienced political journalist fail to understand what Davidson means?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    Not quite - the EU and UK agreed a deal. The Irish government then started causing last-minute difficulties (as is proven by the fact that they held a Cabinet meeting just a couple of hours before the Juncker-May photoshoot was supposed to be happening). It seems that frantic last-minute negotiations were carried out to try to placate the Irish government, but that came up against problems with the DUP.

    It does look very much as the the EU were as surprised by the Irish government's behaviour as everyone else. Hopefully they'll be doing some late arm-twisting to correct this.

    Of course, the root cause here is partly the EU's daft sequencing diktat, which inter alia gave a loaded gun to the Irish.
    The good news for May is that no deal would be even more disastrous for Ireland than for us, so there is no real reason for capitulation. The loaded gun could just as well backfire.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    Not quite - the EU and UK agreed a deal. The Irish government then started causing last-minute difficulties (as is proven by the fact that they held a Cabinet meeting just a couple of hours before the Juncker-May photoshoot was supposed to be happening). It seems that frantic last-minute negotiations were carried out to try to placate the Irish government, but that came up against problems with the DUP.

    It does look very much as the the EU were as surprised by the Irish government's behaviour as everyone else. Hopefully they'll be doing some late arm-twisting to correct this.

    Of course, the root cause here is partly the EU's daft sequencing diktat, which inter alia gave a loaded gun to the Irish.
    That's possible, and explains the Connelly tweet (info from Irish govt sources). But it doesn't necessarily explain why Faisal Islam got that MEP on the record fairly early on, I think suggesting something other than that which May had put to the DUP at 7am.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Her statement says that if the PM thinks NI requires regulatory alignment with the EU, then it should apply to all of the UK not just NI. That seems pretty clear to me. Unless, of course, the PM does not think that NI requires regulatory alignment!!

    It is very sad because NI does not require regulatory alignment to have a low friction border - the UKs suggestions on this were perfectly viable and if she has stuck to her guns there is every chance that the EU would have backed down - the Irish were really only chancing their arm on this. But, of course, May was so desperate to concede to anything that they realised that they could bounce her. And as a result she will end up conceding the core part of any trade negotiations before she even started. Quite simply the worst negotiating performance by a British PM since Munich.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017
    That is just a stupid thing to say. VirtualEye has been shown to be dodgy in the past on several occasions, and the approach they use actually requires human interaction to work (unlike Hawkeye).

    There has been several reviews in this match where the camera is perfectly side on, the batsman has been hit way back in the crease, thus the ball has only a very short distance to travel. We can see that the ball has reached the peak of the arc and by the old physics can only lose height. It is clear from that view that the ball is very close to hitting the top of the stumps. Yet VirtualEye has got it miles over the top.
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    Alistair said:

    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Peston seems to agree with you.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937985818920194048
    How can an experienced political journalist fail to understand what Davidson means?
    In the words of another Conservative politician, she is pro-having cake and pro-eating it.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502
    Anorak said:

    Stat-tastic:
    "Root would become the first captain in 55 years to win a match in Australia after scoring higher than 50 in 4th innings if England win here.. the last captain to achieve that was E Dexter in 1962-1963"

    This one is better:
    Lyon has 9 wickets and averages 14.33 against left handers versus 1 wicket and an average of 108 against right handers...
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,940

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Based on her mood last night, I wouldn't be surprised if it is good cop, bad cop, *by the Brits*

    Getting the DUP to veto her own offer is a novel way of avoiding an Irish veto.
    So she goes back to the EU and says "I need more"
    The first leak of the 'false offer' was from RTE. That puts the Irish govt's fingerprints on it. It would suggest that its the EU who thinks that scuppering what was a reasonable agreement is in their benefit.

    They might still think that there is a possibility of getting a better govt in the UK to negotiate with.
    They were trying to bounce May into a different deal to the one she'd agreed? Thought she would accept anything to move on?
    Or they think in a choice between Remain and No Deal, remain would win?
    This all sounds like too much over-analysis...my take on it is that T May was characteristically guarding sensitive information (she has a long track record of this with HM Queen, the Tory party generally and her cabinet colleagues and voters) and the DUP didnt like it.....Ulster said "no" to paraphrase the late Dr Paisley. The Irish govt are scared of a no deal situation and were perhaps a little over enthusiastic and forgot that the DUP needed to be kept happy
    In my experience working in large, bureaucratic multinationals, people tend to look for conspiracy, intrigue and hidden agendas when in actual fact rank incompetence, a lack of procedure (or lack of understanding thereof), or basic errors like the wrong person being cc'ed at the wrong time is usually to blame. One imagines this problem is even bigger with government bureaucracies.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    edited December 2017

    Roger said:

    Can the BT commentators please stop talking over the third umpire.

    Just shut the eff up.

    Graeme Swann's spent too much time in Australia. He treats hs fellow commentatoress like she's a silly schoolgirl. Lucky he's being employed by BT not the BBC or he'd be on the naughty step with Damien Green
    You know he works for TMS as well right? As does the likes of Sir Geoffrey. As has Alison Mitchell, while Swann was working for TMS.

    You must have to work really hard to be such a pillock.

    I cannot recall hearing Swann on the BBC at TMS at the Ashes this winter.

    I don't quite understand why you had to throw some nasty personal abuse at a fellow poster for making quite a witty remark.
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    Alistair said:

    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Peston seems to agree with you.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937985818920194048
    How can an experienced political journalist fail to understand what Davidson means?
    Naughtie-ism is rife.
    At least Peston didn't suggest Ruth would be demanding single market access for Scotland from May.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017

    I bet Australia are pleased to have used all their reviews.....although with the dodgy Hawkeye knock-off, who knows...

    I think you're being harsh, the Aussie pitches are harder and bouncier than in England.

    Plus Hawkeye has its own flaws.

    http://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/shock-drs-howler-questions-accuracy-of-hawkeye-technology/news-story/3878095d2386cd9e8192a4ccbf523f83
    “Some people will not be able to understand how it works, and there is not much I can do about that,” Hawkins wrote in an official response last year.

    No wonder Sony have removed him from day to day duties at Hawkeye when they bought the company...
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Can the BT commentators please stop talking over the third umpire.

    Just shut the eff up.

    Graeme Swann's spent too much time in Australia. He treats hs fellow commentatoress like she's a silly schoolgirl. Lucky he's being employed by BT not the BBC or he'd be on the naughty step with Damien Green
    You know he works for TMS as well right? As does the likes of Sir Geoffrey. As has Alison Mitchell, while Swann was working for TMS.

    You must have to work really hard to be such a pillock.

    I cannot recall hearing Swann on the BBC at TMS at the Ashes this winter....
    Once heard, not forgotten....
    :smile:
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    JPJ2 said:

    SouthamObserver

    I have seen comments to the effect that no-one really knows what Davidson means-probably does not matter much as her views on Brexit have been kaleidoscopic in their variety :-)

    Peston seems to agree with you.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937985818920194048
    How can an experienced political journalist fail to understand what Davidson means?
    In the words of another Conservative politician, she is pro-having cake and pro-eating it.
    Yes, she very much wants the Brexit voters but she doesn't actually want Brexit.
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    Oh dear...all over now.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502
    Bugger.

    Sandpit breathes again.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502
    At least it wasn't Root.
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    Sir Geoffrey is spot on...England have no real pace in the team, so that when the ball gets old we can never hurry anybody in the way Australia can with any one of their 3 frontline bowlers.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    kyf_100 said:

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    TonyE said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Based on her mood last night, I wouldn't be surprised if it is good cop, bad cop, *by the Brits*

    Getting the DUP to veto her own offer is a novel way of avoiding an Irish veto.
    So she goes back to the EU and says "I need more"
    The first leak of the 'false offer' was from RTE. That puts the Irish govt's fingerprints on it. It would suggest that its the EU who thinks that scuppering what was a reasonable agreement is in their benefit.

    They might still think that there is a possibility of getting a better govt in the UK to negotiate with.
    They were trying to bounce May into a different deal to the one she'd agreed? Thought she would accept anything to move on?
    Or they think in a choice between Remain and No Deal, remain would win?
    This all sounds like too much over-analysis...my take on it is that T May was characteristically guarding sensitive information (she has a long track record of this with HM Queen, the Tory party generally and her cabinet colleagues and voters) and the DUP didnt like it.....Ulster said "no" to paraphrase the late Dr Paisley. The Irish govt are scared of a no deal situation and were perhaps a little over enthusiastic and forgot that the DUP needed to be kept happy
    In my experience working in large, bureaucratic multinationals, people tend to look for conspiracy, intrigue and hidden agendas when in actual fact rank incompetence, a lack of procedure (or lack of understanding thereof), or basic errors like the wrong person being cc'ed at the wrong time is usually to blame. One imagines this problem is even bigger with government bureaucracies.
    Correct.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017
    It is also worth repeating that the phrase 'regulatory alignment' is being misquoted (no doubt deliberately on the part of some). The Today programme this morning, for example, covered it at some length, without anyone pointing out that the actual text referred to regulatory alignment on those parts of single market and customs union that might otherwise lead to hard border.

    Clearly, that's a completely different thing from a blanket agreement on regulatory alignment. There can still be plenty of regulatory divergence, as long as sensible administrative processes can be put in to handle it - for example, simple no-hassle self-declaration forms.
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    Google is hiring thousands of new moderators after facing widespread backlash for allowing child abuse videos and other violent and offensive content to flourish on YouTube.

    Google, which owns YouTube, announced on Monday that next year it would expand its total workforce to more than 10,000 people responsible for reviewing content that could violate its policies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/04/google-youtube-hire-moderators-child-abuse-videos

    The factory jobs of the 21st century...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davidschneider: Types of chaos in ascending order:
    Error
    Cock-up
    Fuck-up
    Calamity
    Omnishambles
    Uber-arsery
    Catastrofuck
    Brexit
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    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.

    Sure, if 30 countries unanimously agree and ratify the necessary treaties by March 2019.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/05/english-pupils-improve-results-in-international-reading-exams

    Good work by the government. The 2001 to 2006 drop is very telling. I'm sure Labour were telling us that exam results were getting better every year during that time.
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    Yesterday’s order paper showed Keith Vaz being discharged from his position on the International Trade select committee, just three months after he joined. Vaz is being replaced by Tom Watson’s old flame Stephanie Peacock. Sources say Vaz hasn’t been seen much around the House recently, and he hasn’t voted since 18 October.

    https://order-order.com/2017/12/05/vaz-off-international-trade-select-committee/

    I can't imagine many professions where effectively not turning up for work for 2 months would go without sanction.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Oh dear...all over now.

    How can you say that when England still have Woakes, Bairstow and Moen.. Broad is finding some form and the new lad can wave a bat.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326



    I agree. I think SO has caught NickPalmeritis, whereby the Brussels merry-go-round carries on going round, according to its own tunes and dance-steps, and whereby everyone reaches an agreement in the end, after sufficient posturing.

    What this misses is that for some, red lines really are red lines. The DUP didn't do what they did yesterday because they wanted more concessions (i.e. as a negotiating tactic); they did it because the deal as it was was unacceptable. This is not something that can be smudged over with ambiguous words because behind the words will be hard facts and those facts will determine whether the DUP, Tory MPs, and the Dublin government can accept the deal.

    As an aside, I don't think we've got a final deal on ex-pat rights yet either, have we? Don't assume that that's a gimme.

    Yes, I'm sticking to my prediction! In anything EUish, ambiguity rules OK.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,370
    edited December 2017
    .
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Google is hiring thousands of new moderators after facing widespread backlash for allowing child abuse videos and other violent and offensive content to flourish on YouTube.

    Google, which owns YouTube, announced on Monday that next year it would expand its total workforce to more than 10,000 people responsible for reviewing content that could violate its policies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/04/google-youtube-hire-moderators-child-abuse-videos

    The factory jobs of the 21st century...

    That sounds like a horrible job. Sitting viewing newly uploaded videos that the AI has picked out as offending. Soul crushing work.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.

    Or we could implement the result of the referendum that we already had, which was to leave the EU which by law also involves leaving the SM and CU.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    For all those right wing BEEB bashers......all I can say to you about the national value of the BBC is encapsulated in three letters.......TMS.....
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.

    Sure, if 30 countries unanimously agree and ratify the necessary treaties by March 2019.
    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99

    It is also worth repeating that the phrase 'regulatory alignment' is being misquoted (no doubt deliberately on the part of some). The Today programme this morning, for example, covered it at some length, without anyone pointing out that the actual text referred to regulatory alignment on those parts of single market and customs union that might otherwise lead to hard border.

    Clearly, that's a completely different thing from a blanket agreement on regulatory alignment. There can still be plenty of regulatory divergence, as long as sensible administrative processes can be put in to handle it - for example, simple no-hassle self-declaration forms.

    Excellent point. Journalists either wilfully ignorant or deliberately misleading.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.

    Or we could implement the result of the referendum that we already had, which was to leave the EU which by law also involves leaving the SM and CU.
    Just as a point of order - that's not remotely true.
    The Customs Union may be a sticking point - but with regulatory compliance through the SM, I'm not convinced that's necessary in any case - but leaving the EU does certainly not legally require leaving the SM.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries, each of who has their own agenda and concerns, and several of whom might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do.
    EFTA should see a significant advantage to enlargement, as it probably helps what is a less political entity carry a bigger trade stick. However, the Norwegians are an odd case: Like the UK its political class is pro EU but its people less so, and they might not want to have the UK in the club, destroying their ambitions of EU membership.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    On Topic

    JICIPM (Jezza is Communist is PM)!!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Game on people. But it will be DD not TM taking Qs https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/938001349635117057
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)

    Joining the EEA from there requires the agreement of the EEA Council, and one sticking point would be how far it would take for us to come into alignment with the Single Market rules. I tend to think this would not be a big challenge. Unless someone wanted to rewrite the entire EEA Agreement (unnecessarily) it would be a yes or no scenario, rather than a long and involved negotiation process.

    To be honest, if we did so, I suspect a lot of the issues that seem to be tied up in the Customs Union over the Irish border (and others) might go away - with regulatory compliance, the problems look a hell of a lot smaller.
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    MaxPB said:

    Google is hiring thousands of new moderators after facing widespread backlash for allowing child abuse videos and other violent and offensive content to flourish on YouTube.

    Google, which owns YouTube, announced on Monday that next year it would expand its total workforce to more than 10,000 people responsible for reviewing content that could violate its policies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/04/google-youtube-hire-moderators-child-abuse-videos

    The factory jobs of the 21st century...

    That sounds like a horrible job. Sitting viewing newly uploaded videos that the AI has picked out as offending. Soul crushing work.
    Absolutely. I actually think it is a good example why I don't believe all the worse case scenarios about the AI apocalypse.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Virtually all the problems and issues go away with the simple formula:

    1 - Move to the EEA/EFTA
    2 - Temporarily remain within the Customs Union until any ways around the problem are found
    3 - Adopt the maximum restrictions allowable within FoM as it stands (actually having exit checks might make people think we're serious about this sort of thing...)
    4 - Agree to have the EEA solution ratified by a confirmatory referendum after 2 years to ensure the electorate are indeed content this is an acceptable solution.

    Or we could implement the result of the referendum that we already had, which was to leave the EU which by law also involves leaving the SM and CU.
    Just as a point of order - that's not remotely true.
    The Customs Union may be a sticking point - but with regulatory compliance through the SM, I'm not convinced that's necessary in any case - but leaving the EU does certainly not legally require leaving the SM.
    As a point of order - the UK is only a party to the SM and EEA via the EU treaties, not in their own right. By law, Brexit terminates UK membership of both the SM and CU.

    It might be possible to rejoin. But it is not true to say that we can opt to leave the EU an stay in the SM or CU. That would be up to the EU.

    Therefore, when the UK voted to leave the EU, as a matter of fact they voted to leave the SM/CU. If you want to rejoin, you need to obtain a mandate. That does not exist at present.
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    I agree. I think SO has caught NickPalmeritis, whereby the Brussels merry-go-round carries on going round, according to its own tunes and dance-steps, and whereby everyone reaches an agreement in the end, after sufficient posturing.

    What this misses is that for some, red lines really are red lines. The DUP didn't do what they did yesterday because they wanted more concessions (i.e. as a negotiating tactic); they did it because the deal as it was was unacceptable. This is not something that can be smudged over with ambiguous words because behind the words will be hard facts and those facts will determine whether the DUP, Tory MPs, and the Dublin government can accept the deal.

    As an aside, I don't think we've got a final deal on ex-pat rights yet either, have we? Don't assume that that's a gimme.

    Yes, I'm sticking to my prediction! In anything EUish, ambiguity rules OK.

    Ambiguity will get us to Phase Two, but it will not deliver a final Brexit deal. That will need to be absolutely clear as it will be the basis on which the UK will seek other FTAs.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    tyson said:

    For all those right wing BEEB bashers......all I can say to you about the national value of the BBC is encapsulated in three letters.......TMS.....

    Hear, hear. It has been fantastic this morning.

    Though, on a point of order there is quite a lot of left wing Beeb bashing as well.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017

    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)

    Joining the EEA from there requires the agreement of the EEA Council, and one sticking point would be how far it would take for us to come into alignment with the Single Market rules. I tend to think this would not be a big challenge. Unless someone wanted to rewrite the entire EEA Agreement (unnecessarily) it would be a yes or no scenario, rather than a long and involved negotiation process.

    To be honest, if we did so, I suspect a lot of the issues that seem to be tied up in the Customs Union over the Irish border (and others) might go away - with regulatory compliance, the problems look a hell of a lot smaller.

    Yes, of course you are right that if we went down that route lots of the problems would disappear (but of course we would still have Freedom Of Movement exactly as before). And you are probably right that, if we had decided to go down that route, and squared off the 31 other countries in advance, it might have been a fairly simple negotiation, although one can never be sure until it's actually tried.

    However, the Leave campaign didn't campaign to join the EEA. They campaigned on ending freedom of movement, ending payments to the EU, and not being subject to lots of EU regulations. If they had campaigned on joining the EEA, they'd have lost badly, since what would be the point of leaving the EU only to sign straight back into the things people most disliked about it?

    Either way, the option is not available now
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    Every Corbyn urgent question has led to a huge win for the government.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
    Actually, I think its the opposite - the constitution means that all entrants MUST agree to the terms of all current trade deals. During the campaign, people were pointing out that this might be problematic for the UK.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    TonyE said:

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
    Actually, I think its the opposite - the constitution means that all entrants MUST agree to the terms of all current trade deals. During the campaign, people were pointing out that this might be problematic for the UK.
    Read the EFTA-South Korea FTA for example. South Korea would have to approve any new member acceding to the agreement.

    http://www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/free-trade-relations/republic-of-korea/EFTA- Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement.pdf
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Did the convicts just burn both their reviews in ten minutes?

    Yup, The Aussies are doing their best to make your bet a loser.
    Still 1.17. Not too far away.
    You mean England are said to have a 17% chance of recording the highest ever run chase in their history from 108-3?

    They've never got within 100 of such a total.
    That could still be a bit brave.
    When commentators quote these "run chase" figures, they abuse statistics to the point that they should be tried for cruel and unusual punishment to mathematics. They select down the stats to exclude games where there was a draw or loss - even if the chasing team got 600+ runs (and thus would easily have won against a target of 354).
    There's also the fact that as soon as the chasing team has won, they tend to stop batting (eg 351/5 is ignored, even though one would probably guess England would have got the final 3 runs in that sort of scenario)
    England, chasing, have got past 354 six times before, not never (654/5, 417ao, 411ao, 370ao (twice), 369/6, 363ao)
    They also got 353ao (which would be a tie), 351/5 (my money would be on England there), 350ao (very exciting conclusion, that would be), 335/5 (probably going to win from there), 332/7 (real nailbiter), 332ao (oh, so close).

    That's just England. In fact, looking at Statsguru for the 4th innings, on about 70 occasions, chasing sides have either got to or past 353 runs, or been well and truly on to get there (eg being 30 runs short with 5 wickets in hand).
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972

    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)

    Joining the EEA from there requires the agreement of the EEA Council, and one sticking point would be how far it would take for us to come into alignment with the Single Market rules. I tend to think this would not be a big challenge. Unless someone wanted to rewrite the entire EEA Agreement (unnecessarily) it would be a yes or no scenario, rather than a long and involved negotiation process.

    To be honest, if we did so, I suspect a lot of the issues that seem to be tied up in the Customs Union over the Irish border (and others) might go away - with regulatory compliance, the problems look a hell of a lot smaller.

    Yes, of course you are right that if we went down that route lots of the problems would disappear (but of course we would still have Freedom Of Movement exactly as before). And you are probably right that, if we had decided to go down that route, and squared off the 31 other countries in advance, it might have been a fairly simple negotiation, although one can never be sure until it's actually tried.

    However, the Leave campaign didn't campaign to join the EEA. They campaigned on ending freedom of movement, ending payments to the EU, and not being subject to lots of EU regulations. If they had campaigned on joining the EEA, they'd have lost badly, since what would be the point of leaving the EU only to sign straight back into the things people most disliked about it?

    Either way, the option is not available now
    Leave campaigned for the moon on a stick. And then some.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2017
    TonyE said:

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
    Actually, I think its the opposite - the constitution means that all entrants MUST agree to the terms of all current trade deals. During the campaign, people were pointing out that this might be problematic for the UK.
    Surely the counterparties to those trade agreements must have a veto on that? Otherwise they could suddenly find themselves unwillingly entering a trade agreement with a big economy which they hadn't expected when they signed up.

    Edit: As @williamglenn has just shown.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Can the BT commentators please stop talking over the third umpire.

    Just shut the eff up.

    Graeme Swann's spent too much time in Australia. He treats hs fellow commentatoress like she's a silly schoolgirl. Lucky he's being employed by BT not the BBC or he'd be on the naughty step with Damien Green
    You know he works for TMS as well right? As does the likes of Sir Geoffrey. As has Alison Mitchell, while Swann was working for TMS.

    You must have to work really hard to be such a pillock.
    Yes it's tough!
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    For all those right wing BEEB bashers......all I can say to you about the national value of the BBC is encapsulated in three letters.......TMS.....

    Hear, hear. It has been fantastic this morning.

    Though, on a point of order there is quite a lot of left wing Beeb bashing as well.
    I never thought I'd miss Blowers quite as much as I do. He was irreplaceable. Alison Mitchell is a good ball on ball commentator but she needs time to become an old pro.

    Glad we agree on something mind....well we probably also agree that Oxford is a wonderful city too....
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    edited December 2017
    Someone has just posted on the Cricinfo commentary site ""Oh! Test cricket doesn't have boundary! A person from Bangladesh, now staying in India for the purpose of higher study, is following Test cricket in Australia, rather following cricket in Bangladesh-India and wish to see England win for a competitive ASHES! Best of luck Test Cricket! “

    Citizens of the World!
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    Mr. Tyson, not a cricket fan myself, but can appreciate the odd void a great commentator can leave. I still remember the excellent enthusiasm of Murray Walker.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    TonyE said:

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
    Actually, I think its the opposite - the constitution means that all entrants MUST agree to the terms of all current trade deals. During the campaign, people were pointing out that this might be problematic for the UK.
    Read the EFTA-South Korea FTA for example. South Korea would have to approve any new member acceding to the agreement.

    http://www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/free-trade-relations/republic-of-korea/EFTA- Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement.pdf
    Are you referring to this?
    Art 10.4
    Any State, Member of the European
    Free Trade Association, may accede to
    this Agreement, provided that the Joint Co
    mmittee decides to approve its accession,
    on terms and conditions to be negotiated be
    tween the acceding State and the existing
    Parties. The instrument of accession
    shall be deposited with the Depositary.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908



    I agree. I think SO has caught NickPalmeritis, whereby the Brussels merry-go-round carries on going round, according to its own tunes and dance-steps, and whereby everyone reaches an agreement in the end, after sufficient posturing.

    What this misses is that for some, red lines really are red lines. The DUP didn't do what they did yesterday because they wanted more concessions (i.e. as a negotiating tactic); they did it because the deal as it was was unacceptable. This is not something that can be smudged over with ambiguous words because behind the words will be hard facts and those facts will determine whether the DUP, Tory MPs, and the Dublin government can accept the deal.

    As an aside, I don't think we've got a final deal on ex-pat rights yet either, have we? Don't assume that that's a gimme.

    Yes, I'm sticking to my prediction! In anything EUish, ambiguity rules OK.

    Ambiguity will get us to Phase Two, but it will not deliver a final Brexit deal. That will need to be absolutely clear as it will be the basis on which the UK will seek other FTAs.

    To quote David Cameron/Gordon Brown.... I agree with Nick.
    I reckon there'll be a deal in the end. TM has rather made things difficult for herself though!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    Plenty of people to potentially blame, but the possibility of no deal Brexit is getting raised here.
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Did the convicts just burn both their reviews in ten minutes?

    Yup, The Aussies are doing their best to make your bet a loser.
    Still 1.17. Not too far away.
    You mean England are said to have a 17% chance of recording the highest ever run chase in their history from 108-3?

    They've never got within 100 of such a total.
    That could still be a bit brave.
    When commentators quote these "run chase" figures, they abuse statistics to the point that they should be tried for cruel and unusual punishment to mathematics. They select down the stats to exclude games where there was a draw or loss - even if the chasing team got 600+ runs (and thus would easily have won against a target of 354).
    There's also the fact that as soon as the chasing team has won, they tend to stop batting (eg 351/5 is ignored, even though one would probably guess England would have got the final 3 runs in that sort of scenario)
    England, chasing, have got past 354 six times before, not never (654/5, 417ao, 411ao, 370ao (twice), 369/6, 363ao)
    They also got 353ao (which would be a tie), 351/5 (my money would be on England there), 350ao (very exciting conclusion, that would be), 335/5 (probably going to win from there), 332/7 (real nailbiter), 332ao (oh, so close).

    That's just England. In fact, looking at Statsguru for the 4th innings, on about 70 occasions, chasing sides have either got to or past 353 runs, or been well and truly on to get there (eg being 30 runs short with 5 wickets in hand).
    Excellent. And of course there is the time. Much of the historic dataset of chases were practically impossible within the time remaining.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    edited December 2017
    4th innings chasesalways look on track, then all the wickets come at once !

    I've not looked but Aus 1.35 perhaps from here ?

    Edit: 1.315 according to Betfair, looks about right.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Mr. Tyson, not a cricket fan myself, but can appreciate the odd void a great commentator can leave. I still remember the excellent enthusiasm of Murray Walker.

    Especially when James Hunt was his co-commentator.

    Sometimes though some national treasures can be replaced though...Mike Costello at BB5 boxing is utterly superb and is probably better than Harry Carpenter, something I didn't think possible.....
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)

    Joining the EEA from there requires the agreement of the EEA Council, and one sticking point would be how far it would take for us to come into alignment with the Single Market rules. I tend to think this would not be a big challenge. Unless someone wanted to rewrite the entire EEA Agreement (unnecessarily) it would be a yes or no scenario, rather than a long and involved negotiation process.

    To be honest, if we did so, I suspect a lot of the issues that seem to be tied up in the Customs Union over the Irish border (and others) might go away - with regulatory compliance, the problems look a hell of a lot smaller.

    Yes, of course you are right that if we went down that route lots of the problems would disappear (but of course we would still have Freedom Of Movement exactly as before). And you are probably right that, if we had decided to go down that route, and squared off the 31 other countries in advance, it might have been a fairly simple negotiation, although one can never be sure until it's actually tried.

    However, the Leave campaign didn't campaign to join the EEA. They campaigned on ending freedom of movement, ending payments to the EU, and not being subject to lots of EU regulations. If they had campaigned on joining the EEA, they'd have lost badly, since what would be the point of leaving the EU only to sign straight back into the things people most disliked about it?

    Either way, the option is not available now
    It could easily be pointed out that leaving the EU for the EEA decreases net payments noticeably, slashes the number of regulations with which we'd have to adhere, and permits for an emergency brake on FoM in certain circumstances (and we still don't come near to using the restrictions on FoM that we had/have as members of the EU).

    It could also be pointed out that the result was only narrowly to leave the EU, so an outcome where we only narrowly leave the EU would be spot on the will of the people.

    And, as I say, we could make it subject to confirmatory referendum just to make absolutely sure the will of the people is taken into account.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Did the convicts just burn both their reviews in ten minutes?

    Yup, The Aussies are doing their best to make your bet a loser.
    Still 1.17. Not too far away.
    You mean England are said to have a 17% chance of recording the highest ever run chase in their history from 108-3?

    They've never got within 100 of such a total.
    That could still be a bit brave.
    When commentators quote these "run chase" figures, they abuse statistics to the point that they should be tried for cruel and unusual punishment to mathematics. They select down the stats to exclude games where there was a draw or loss - even if the chasing team got 600+ runs (and thus would easily have won against a target of 354).
    There's also the fact that as soon as the chasing team has won, they tend to stop batting (eg 351/5 is ignored, even though one would probably guess England would have got the final 3 runs in that sort of scenario)
    England, chasing, have got past 354 six times before, not never (654/5, 417ao, 411ao, 370ao (twice), 369/6, 363ao)
    They also got 353ao (which would be a tie), 351/5 (my money would be on England there), 350ao (very exciting conclusion, that would be), 335/5 (probably going to win from there), 332/7 (real nailbiter), 332ao (oh, so close).

    That's just England. In fact, looking at Statsguru for the 4th innings, on about 70 occasions, chasing sides have either got to or past 353 runs, or been well and truly on to get there (eg being 30 runs short with 5 wickets in hand).
    It's the hope that kills you.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    That's a leading question.

    No: i want Ireland to be divided.

    How about "do you want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom"
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    TonyE said:

    One suspects that buying off-the-peg could be orders of magnitude easier than insisting on a bespoke item when the customer and multiple vendors keep both arguing and changing their minds on what they want.
    It's an existing treaty which we actually have already joined and followed.

    It still requires ratification by not only the 27 other EU countries but also the EFTA countries. Each of those countries has their own agenda and concerns, and several of them might want to use it as a lever. Plus it would require EU parliament approval. It is not something the UK can unilaterally choose to do, even if it were politically possible to go for an option which directly conflicted with the main reason people voted to leave in the first place.
    We could join EFTA simply with the agreement of the EFTA Council - Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland - as long as we demonstrate we are willing to accept existing free trade agreements (which are wider ranging than the EUs ones, as I understand it)
    It's not that simple. Even if we joined EFTA we wouldn't automatically gain access to any of their existing free trade agreements.
    Actually, I think its the opposite - the constitution means that all entrants MUST agree to the terms of all current trade deals. During the campaign, people were pointing out that this might be problematic for the UK.
    Surely the counterparties to those trade agreements must have a veto on that? Otherwise they could suddenly find themselves unwillingly entering a trade agreement with a big economy which they hadn't expected when they signed up.

    Edit: As @williamglenn has just shown.
    Yes, I think I was confusing this with some statements that I heard during the campaign, that to be granted EFTA entry we would have to be willing on our side to agree to enter all deals currently on the table (but of course that would be subject to 3rd country approval). It was more our side's position that was in question. It was probably a projection of what we would be required to do by EFTA.
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Did the convicts just burn both their reviews in ten minutes?

    Yup, The Aussies are doing their best to make your bet a loser.
    Still 1.17. Not too far away.
    You mean England are said to have a 17% chance of recording the highest ever run chase in their history from 108-3?

    They've never got within 100 of such a total.
    That could still be a bit brave.
    When commentators quote these "run chase" figures, they abuse statistics to the point that they should be tried for cruel and unusual punishment to mathematics. They select down the stats to exclude games where there was a draw or loss - even if the chasing team got 600+ runs (and thus would easily have won against a target of 354).
    There's also the fact that as soon as the chasing team has won, they tend to stop batting (eg 351/5 is ignored, even though one would probably guess England would have got the final 3 runs in that sort of scenario)
    England, chasing, have got past 354 six times before, not never (654/5, 417ao, 411ao, 370ao (twice), 369/6, 363ao)
    They also got 353ao (which would be a tie), 351/5 (my money would be on England there), 350ao (very exciting conclusion, that would be), 335/5 (probably going to win from there), 332/7 (real nailbiter), 332ao (oh, so close).

    That's just England. In fact, looking at Statsguru for the 4th innings, on about 70 occasions, chasing sides have either got to or past 353 runs, or been well and truly on to get there (eg being 30 runs short with 5 wickets in hand).
    Thank you. I have been saying this for ages.

    As an aside, I do think that the whole mentality about what's possible in a run-chase would be different had it not rained on the 12th day (including rest days), in that 1938/9 timeless test in S Africa.
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    TSE -lost for words?
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