I still am utterly gobsmacked that May survived the humiliation of right royally screwing up an unnecessary election. I thought Corbyn had taken resilience and bare faced audacity to a new level when he faced down the mass resignation of his shadow cabinet.....but that was essentially an eternal party affair.
May had called a general election and been humiliated by the outcome. She had put the country through a GE to improve her personal position and failed. They want to sack Green for chugging away in his office (allegedly) between writing emails and whatnot. But that is only between Green and his right hand. May put the fucking country through the stress of an election. Please tell me of any political acts of self harm that have survived. I cannot think of any.
Harold Wilson in 1970? Though he was much nearer to the end of the Parliament when he called the election. Attlee also survived being defeated at an early election in 1951.
It was apparent at the time that the Conservatives' hubris was leading them to target unrealistic seats. It was less apparent that Labour's defeatism was leading them to fail to target realistic seats.
Yup. If Labour's polling/confidence had been better, Jeremy Corbyn would be PM now.
Which would probably be one of the most (if not the most) dramatic political stories for British politics ever.
Labour's private pollster had them 13% behind on polling day.
I read somewhere the other day (Newstatesman?) that many pollsters now feel it is next to impossible to poll the UK politically, as they just can't reach a representative sample.
I read that too. I wonder whether any of them will on that basis waive their fees in future for conducting political polls.
On the other hand, the Yougov 50000 was remarkably accurate. It even suggested [ taken with an enormous amount of salt at the time ] that Canterbury, Kensington could be close. Did it also not suggest that one MK candidate in Cornwall was also going to do well.
The YG 50000 "poll" was not a poll as we understand it, but a rolling poll of 7000 a day where the latest one replaced the one from seven days earlier.
Survation was also remarkably accurate. The problem with the other pollsters, particularly, ICM , was that they "knew" what the outcome should be and were changing their methodology to achieve that desire "outcome".
Kantar and Survey Monkey performed creditably as well (the former did very well with the EU referendum as well).
But what is the point of leaving the EU if we maintain "regulatory alignment"? What price sovereignty then? The UK will be forced to accept regulations it has no say in drafting.
Its only in specified areas such as animal safety & energy - not a blanket alignment......the DUP agreed with that (there is already convergence within the island of Ireland on some of these) but it wasn't specified in the agreement (too much fudge?) - hence the strop.....
I think I saw around 140 areas being quoted as the number. Agriculture, energy, employment protections, health and safety ...
We may be free to set our own regulations on bell-ringing and stamp collecting, though :-)
I still am utterly gobsmacked that May survived the humiliation of right royally screwing up an unnecessary election. I thought Corbyn had taken resilience and bare faced audacity to a new level when he faced down the mass resignation of his shadow cabinet.....but that was essentially an eternal party affair.
May had called a general election and been humiliated by the outcome. She had put the country through a GE to improve her personal position and failed. They want to sack Green for chugging away in his office (allegedly) between writing emails and whatnot. But that is only between Green and his right hand. May put the fucking country through the stress of an election. Please tell me of any political acts of self harm that have survived. I cannot think of any.
Harold Wilson in 1970? Though he was much nearer to the end of the Parliament when he called the election. Attlee also survived being defeated at an early election in 1951.
Edward Heath in Feb 1974 .Who governs Britain election.
It was apparent at the time that the Conservatives' hubris was leading them to target unrealistic seats. It was less apparent that Labour's defeatism was leading them to fail to target realistic seats.
Yup. If Labour's polling/confidence had been better, Jeremy Corbyn would be PM now.
Which would probably be one of the most (if not the most) dramatic political stories for British politics ever.
Labour's private pollster had them 13% behind on polling day.
I read somewhere the other day (Newstatesman?) that many pollsters now feel it is next to impossible to poll the UK politically, as they just can't reach a representative sample.
Survation managed it.
Ipsos MORI & GFK managed it with their exit poll.
I remember the Survation guy saying that even if he had used the same turnout model as ICM et al. (i.e. historic actual turnout by age, as against self-reported/intentional), his pre-GE poll wouldn't have come out significantly different. So there is clearly more to the ICM error than the oft-mentioned youth surge. But I never got my head around what other sorts of adjustments ICM and ComRes were making that Survation was not?
I still am utterly gobsmacked that May survived the humiliation of right royally screwing up an unnecessary election. I thought Corbyn had taken resilience and bare faced audacity to a new level when he faced down the mass resignation of his shadow cabinet.....but that was essentially an eternal party affair.
May had called a general election and been humiliated by the outcome. She had put the country through a GE to improve her personal position and failed. They want to sack Green for chugging away in his office (allegedly) between writing emails and whatnot. But that is only between Green and his right hand. May put the fucking country through the stress of an election. Please tell me of any political acts of self harm that have survived. I cannot think of any.
Harold Wilson in 1970? Though he was much nearer to the end of the Parliament when he called the election. Attlee also survived being defeated at an early election in 1951.
Wilson and Atlee had both won 2 GE victories personally previously...so arguably deserved some goodwill from the party....
It was apparent at the time that the Conservatives' hubris was leading them to target unrealistic seats. It was less apparent that Labour's defeatism was leading them to fail to target realistic seats.
Yup. If Labour's polling/confidence had been better, Jeremy Corbyn would be PM now.
Which would probably be one of the most (if not the most) dramatic political stories for British politics ever.
Labour's private pollster had them 13% behind on polling day.
I read somewhere the other day (Newstatesman?) that many pollsters now feel it is next to impossible to poll the UK politically, as they just can't reach a representative sample.
I read that too. I wonder whether any of them will on that basis waive their fees in future for conducting political polls.
On the other hand, the Yougov 50000 was remarkably accurate. It even suggested [ taken with an enormous amount of salt at the time ] that Canterbury, Kensington could be close. Did it also not suggest that one MK candidate in Cornwall was also going to do well.
The YG 50000 "poll" was not a poll as we understand it, but a rolling poll of 7000 a day where the latest one replaced the one from seven days earlier.
Survation was also remarkably accurate. The problem with the other pollsters, particularly, ICM , was that they "knew" what the outcome should be and were changing their methodology to achieve that desire "outcome".
But they are changing the methodology because they know or feel they are not getting through to a representative sample surely?
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
Crowing about making us " a kind of a regulatory 'protectorate" of Brussels'" is not exactly diplomatic language on the EU's part.
It is mystifying for the EU.
David Davis has spent months saying he wants x, then asks for the opposite of x, which is much inferior to remaining in the EU (or EEA et al)
I don't begin to defend our government's negotiating or planning abilities - which seem inadequate to meet the proverbial wet paper bag test. That is not the point, though.
The impression I get is that this seems to be of a part with Barnier's speech last week about the UK 'betraying' Europe's security - and many other similar comments.
The language on their part has been at various times triumphalist; undiplomatic; hubristic; confrontational...
I understand that they wish to achieve the best possible deal for Europe; what I don't understand is why they might think it a good idea to engineer the worst possible circumstances for us and require us to publicly acknowledge the same.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
Crowing about making us " a kind of a regulatory 'protectorate" of Brussels'" is not exactly diplomatic language on the EU's part.
It is mystifying for the EU.
David Davis has spent months saying he wants x, then asks for the opposite of x, which is much inferior to remaining in the EU (or EEA et al)
I don't begin to defend our government's negotiating or planning abilities - which seem inadequate to meet the proverbial wet paper bag test. That is not the point, though.
The impression I get is that this seems to be of a part with Barnier's speech last week about the UK 'betraying' Europe's security - and many other similar comments.
The language on their part has been at various times triumphalist; undiplomatic; hubristic; confrontational...
I understand that they wish to achieve the best possible deal for Europe; what I don't understand is why they might think it a good idea to engineer the worst possible circumstances for us and require us to publicly acknowledge the same.
On the other hand, many senior UK politicians - including members of the cabinet - have publicly said on a number of occasions that they want the EU to fail and that the European Commission was seeking to influence British elections.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
If they can never win them back, then the Conservatives will have to try and seal the deal in seats like Stoke North, Ashfield, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme. It doesn't matter where you win 326 seats, so long as you win them.
The trade-off in trade deals is simple: you balance the level of political freedom you are willing to give up with the level of freedom to trade with one another. The European Union is the highest-trade, lowest-freedom trade agreement in the world, and its closest association deals – the EEA and its multiplicity of deals with Switzerland – are the next in magnitude. You can reasonably argue either way about which of those deals gives the most freedom or the most trade, but that’s a topic for another time. The importance of Davidson’s intervention is that it paves the way for a much softer Brexit for the whole of the United Kingdom: perhaps not membership of the actual EEA but something a lot closer to it than CETA, the EU’s deal with Canada which is high on freedom but low on market access.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
Broadly I am with Alastair. In London and the South East, at least, its the housing market. If the Tories could solve this, they might be in with a chance, but given the depth of the problem the likely solutions are likely to involve a degree of radicalism well beyond both the Tories' inclination and capability.
It's tough for Labour, trying to triangulate to be just a smidgin less Brexit than the Tories, when the Tories present such a moving target as to where we are headed.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
But what is the point of leaving the EU if we maintain "regulatory alignment"? What price sovereignty then? The UK will be forced to accept regulations it has no say in drafting.
Nobody can get their idea of Brexit through Parliament so this fudge will have to do. Whoever next gets a big majority will be able to renegotiate all this.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
Broadly I am with Alastair. In London and the South East, at least, its the housing market. If the Tories could solve this, they might be in with a chance, but given the depth of the problem the likely solutions are likely to involve a degree of radicalism well beyond both the Tories' inclination and capability.
That said, time is often a healer. Back in 1997, Labour led by 22% among 25-34 year olds, whereas the Conservatives led by 3% among the same group, aged 45-54, in June.
Regulatory alignment effectively recognises that a trade deal with the EU takes precedence over trade deals with anyone else, which is absolutely the right approach to take, of course. However, it will severely limit the UK's ability to do big ticket trade deals and it will severely aggravate the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg. All in all, it's very encouraging.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
Totally agree. We seem to be heading for a far softer Brexit than a Tory majority would have delivered. And that is very good news.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
The big swing to Corbyn came on suddenly and although there is real fervour among a substantial minority a good 10-15% could vanish rapidly. Why? Social liberal remainers start to realise the true nature of Corbyn McDonell and the Labour party civil war that has been postponed but is inevitable.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
Broadly I am with Alastair. In London and the South East, at least, its the housing market. If the Tories could solve this, they might be in with a chance, but given the depth of the problem the likely solutions are likely to involve a degree of radicalism well beyond both the Tories' inclination and capability.
That said, time is often a healer. Back in 1997, Labour led by 22% among 25-34 year olds, whereas the Conservatives led by 3% among the same group, aged 45-54, in June.
Yes, but far more of the 25-34 year olds in 1997 will be now be homeowners, than will those in that age range today in twenty years time. So you are making my point for me.
Regulatory alignment effectively recognises that a trade deal with the EU takes precedence over trade deals with anyone else, which is absolutely the right approach to take, of course. However, it will severely limit the UK's ability to do big ticket trade deals and it will severely aggravate the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg. All in all, it's very encouraging.
Interesting that it was regulatory alignment in the absence of future agreement. Wiggle room?
Regulatory alignment effectively recognises that a trade deal with the EU takes precedence over trade deals with anyone else, which is absolutely the right approach to take, of course. However, it will severely limit the UK's ability to do big ticket trade deals and it will severely aggravate the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg. All in all, it's very encouraging.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
And Labour appears to be trying the strategy of being Brexit up north and remain down south.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
Will the Jezza Cultists bother to vote for Rayner or Nandy?
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Corbyn and McDonell will if there is areal prospect of a Labour majority.
Appreciating that cock-up wins over conspiracy, what we have here, however, is people on the No.9 bus discussing regulatory alignment. Talk about floating an idea to get it general acceptance.
Before you know it JR-M's constituents (to say nothing of the DM, Sun, Express, etc) will be asking why we aren't pushing for regulatory alignment. And a patriot and diligent constituency MP such as he is will find it difficult to argue.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
A few more LD gains would have been nice, but overall I have quite enjoyed the Tories in headless chicken mode.
Next year should be fun politically. Lets hope for a new election and the betting opportunities within.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
Indeed it is. The only form of Brexit that is now possible is BINO and even that might be beyond the capability of this Parliament to deliver.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
The big swing to Corbyn came on suddenly and although there is real fervour among a substantial minority a good 10-15% could vanish rapidly. Why? Social liberal remainers start to realise the true nature of Corbyn McDonell and the Labour party civil war that has been postponed but is inevitable.
Whilst there was a shift during the campaign, it probably wasn't as dramatic as the headline poll averages suggest. If you look at the YouGov model - which with hindsight we can see was pretty accurate - the Tories didn't start the campaign with a big enough margin over Labour to make calling the election worthwhile. That never got reported, because most of the major pollsters were reporting something different.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
Will the Jezza Cultists bother to vote for Rayner or Nandy?
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
Indeed it is. The only form of Brexit that is now possible is BINO and even that might be beyond the capability of this Parliament to deliver.
No deal brexit is still eminently possible, since no action is required to bring it about.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
The big swing to Corbyn came on suddenly and although there is real fervour among a substantial minority a good 10-15% could vanish rapidly. Why? Social liberal remainers start to realise the true nature of Corbyn McDonell and the Labour party civil war that has been postponed but is inevitable.
Whilst there was a shift during the campaign, it probably wasn't as dramatic as the headline poll averages suggest. If you look at the YouGov model - which with hindsight we can see was pretty accurate - the Tories didn't start the campaign with a big enough margin over Labour to make calling the election worthwhile. That never got reported, because most of the major pollsters were reporting something different.
The local elections suggested a big Conservative lead, if not as big as the 20-25% that some polls were showing. Had the Conservatives fought a decent campaign, I imagine they'd have finished 10% -15% or so ahead.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Q1. What was the question asked on the Referendum ballot paper? Q2. What was the result of said Referendum? Q3. Is Norway in the EU?
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
I think you underestimate Corbyn. He can win on his own terms. He just neeeds to be less awful than the alternative. No need to interrupt the self destruction of the Tories.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
Indeed it is. The only form of Brexit that is now possible is BINO and even that might be beyond the capability of this Parliament to deliver.
No deal brexit is still eminently possible, since no action is required to bring it about.
Indeed, a no deal scenario remains very much on the cards. But the approach of a cliff edge with grounded flights and queues at Dover would lead to an economic and political panic that could well end up reversing Brexit altogether. And if you think that is too alarmist I suggest you read the evidence that the car manufacturers gave to the HoC Business Committee the other week.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
If Labour were to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone even halfway acceptable to the remaining Remainers (and I don't think it needs to go further right than Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy), a landslide beckons.
I think you underestimate Corbyn. He can win on his own terms. He just neeeds to be less awful than the alternative. No need to interrupt the self destruction of the Tories.
Is the $64,000 question.
Has he reached his limit plus he will give back the "he can never win so eff off Brexiting Theresa" Cons votes, or are those Cons votes when push comes to shove happier with a Lab govt than Brexit plus has he still to plunder fertile grounds for yet more votes?
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Corbyn and McDonell will if there is areal prospect of a Labour majority.
Indeed. I think a lot of people saw GE2017 as a free hit against the government and a hard brexit, as a Con victory looked nailed on. That won't be the case this time around. Fear of Corbynomics will be real.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Lansman, as the man behind Momentum, has all the power in Labour. SO is right.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
I think you underestimate Corbyn. He can win on his own terms. He just neeeds to be less awful than the alternative. No need to interrupt the self destruction of the Tories.
And that self-destruction is happening as we speak:
Crowing about making us " a kind of a regulatory 'protectorate" of Brussels'" is not exactly diplomatic language on the EU's part.
It is mystifying for the EU.
David Davis has spent months saying he wants x, then asks for the opposite of x, which is much inferior to remaining in the EU (or EEA et al)
I don't begin to defend our government's negotiating or planning abilities - which seem inadequate to meet the proverbial wet paper bag test. That is not the point, though.
The impression I get is that this seems to be of a part with Barnier's speech last week about the UK 'betraying' Europe's security - and many other similar comments.
The language on their part has been at various times triumphalist; undiplomatic; hubristic; confrontational...
I understand that they wish to achieve the best possible deal for Europe; what I don't understand is why they might think it a good idea to engineer the worst possible circumstances for us and require us to publicly acknowledge the same.
On the other hand, many senior UK politicians - including members of the cabinet - have publicly said on a number of occasions that they want the EU to fail and that the European Commission was seeking to influence British elections.
But not the ones negotiating, who for all their blundering around have pretty well maintained the diplomatic niceties. That we are paying a significant part of the salaries of the EU officials - and that they are expecting us to continue to do so for some time - adds to the insult.
After 2015 Messina achieved an almost god like status. His big data, social media was the way modern politics would be played and won. So much drier than actually going onto doorsteps and more pleasant than dealing with argumentative interviewers. Given this status it is hardly surprising that May felt very confident about the election and was reluctant to do too much to rock the boat or run unnecessary risks.
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
I'm very happy with how the election result is playing out now. Given the appalling options on offer in June, it's about as good as it could get.
Indeed it is. The only form of Brexit that is now possible is BINO and even that might be beyond the capability of this Parliament to deliver.
No deal brexit is still eminently possible, since no action is required to bring it about.
Indeed, a no deal scenario remains very much on the cards. But the approach of a cliff edge with grounded flights and queues at Dover would lead to an economic and political panic that could well end up reversing Brexit altogether. And if you think that is too alarmist I suggest you read the evidence that the car manufacturers gave to the HoC Business Committee the other week.
The Four Horsemen are saddling up, this time for real...
Of course this brings us back to the pre-vote absurdity. Let's leave one supra-national organisation having sway over our laws and regulations, and...join another supra-national organisation having sway over our laws and regulations.
Not something I see tripping off JRM's tongue. Where is his red line?
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
Labour, they are shameless charlatans, and they could pull it off, especially if the alternative is economic ruin in the eyes of the voters.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Jon Lansman is about to be elected to the NEC. The private company he owns controls the Momentum database. Through this database, Momentum communicates with hundreds of thousands of Labour members and supporters - including making recommendations as to who they should vote for in internal elections. Momentum's pitch is that it backs Jeremy and Jeremy reciprocates. Thus, if you are a Corbynista and Momentum recommends you vote for a certain candidate you are basically being told who Jeremy wants to win.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Lansman, as the man behind Momentum, has all the power in Labour. SO is right.
Yeah, the parasite has got its teeth well sunk in and it's not going to let go now, whatever happens.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is.
No. Today's left are not the tightly-disciplined political obsessives of the 1980s and early 1990s. They are mostly political novices with a slightly starry-eyed perspective on Corbyn and Momentum but their policy positions are generally undeveloped and they are much too young to have much understanding of the 1970s Marxism that drove Corbyn and McDonnell. The Party is in a state of flux and the idea that it is on the road to becoming a latter-day version of the Soviet Communist Party is misplaced.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
Labour, they are shameless charlatans, and they could pull it off, especially if the alternative is economic ruin in the eyes of the voters.
Jez is a hard Brexit supporter. His policy is literally just "the same as the Tories but we won't say so".
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Corbyn and McDonell will if there is areal prospect of a Labour majority.
Indeed. I think a lot of people saw GE2017 as a free hit against the government and a hard brexit, as a Con victory looked nailed on. That won't be the case this time around. Fear of Corbynomics will be real.
This is a much-touted theory among Conservatives. The only problem is that there isn't the slightest evidence of any regret on the part of those who voted Labour in June.
Looks pretty like where we seem to be heading: in the SM and CU, but not in them.
For goods.
For services access to the EU market is just as important. There will need to be a deal cut on them. And that will involve "regulatory alignment". Northern Ireland - and hence the UK if we are to take David Davis at face value (and why shouldn't we) - cannot maintain an open border with the RoI and have a regulatory regime for financial services that runs contrary to the one in the EU, for example.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Jon Lansman is about to be elected to the NEC. The private company he owns controls the Momentum database. Through this database, Momentum communicates with hundreds of thousands of Labour members and supporters - including making recommendations as to who they should vote for in internal elections. Momentum's pitch is that it backs Jeremy and Jeremy reciprocates. Thus, if you are a Corbynista and Momentum recommends you vote for a certain candidate you are basically being told who Jeremy wants to win.
There have always been rival slates in internal Labour elections. It worked in exactly the same way when Blair was leader - the moderate slate was promoted by Progress/Labour First and the left one by CLPD and other left groups. Nothing new there.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
Labour, they are shameless charlatans, and they could pull it off, especially if the alternative is economic ruin in the eyes of the voters.
I don’t think that works, however much I would like it to. There is no level of impending real world economic disaster that would stop the Tories going into a new GE campaign promising painless soft-as-a-feather yet hard-as-a-diamond free-movement-and-trade-for-us yet hard-borders-against-them Brexit. And Labour would be too scared that enough voters would once again believe a pro-Brexit press saying it was possible, so would campaign on something roughly similar with added niceness. Maybe they could just about slip a second referendum into the manifesto but I’m not sure they would even risk that.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
Labour, they are shameless charlatans, and they could pull it off, especially if the alternative is economic ruin in the eyes of the voters.
Jez is a hard Brexit supporter. His policy is literally just "the same as the Tories but we won't say so".
It's not his No.1 priority. He will sacrifice it, I'm sure, if it gets him into No.10.
If we're to be subject to all EU regulation and paying for the privilege, that's a departure in name only, which would appear to have the twin flaws of both disrespecting the vote *and* being worse than staying in because we kept the negatives and lose what positives there are.
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Too much hassle.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Which party is going to propose that and win? Oh right.
Labour, they are shameless charlatans, and they could pull it off, especially if the alternative is economic ruin in the eyes of the voters.
Jez is a hard Brexit supporter. His policy is literally just "the same as the Tories but we won't say so".
It's not his No.1 priority. He will sacrifice it, I'm sure, if it gets him into No.10.
Except that Remaining would block his priorities 1 to 10.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Jon Lansman is about to be elected to the NEC. The private company he owns controls the Momentum database. Through this database, Momentum communicates with hundreds of thousands of Labour members and supporters - including making recommendations as to who they should vote for in internal elections. Momentum's pitch is that it backs Jeremy and Jeremy reciprocates. Thus, if you are a Corbynista and Momentum recommends you vote for a certain candidate you are basically being told who Jeremy wants to win.
There have always been rival slates in internal Labour elections. It worked in exactly the same way when Blair was leader - the moderate slate was promoted by Progress/Labour First and the left one by CLPD and other left groups. Nothing new there.
No organisation - let alone a privately-run business - has ever owned the database of Labour members and supporters that Jon Lansman's company owns. That is the difference and what makes him so powerful.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
Labour have united the Left, but otherwise stripped away only the Tories who are metropolitan and very pro-Remain.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Corbyn and McDonell will if there is areal prospect of a Labour majority.
Indeed. I think a lot of people saw GE2017 as a free hit against the government and a hard brexit, as a Con victory looked nailed on. That won't be the case this time around. Fear of Corbynomics will be real.
This is a much-touted theory among Conservatives. The only problem is that there isn't the slightest evidence of any regret on the part of those who voted Labour in June.
Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth and Ilford North all went from the marginal category to very safe Labour.
Looks pretty like where we seem to be heading: in the SM and CU, but not in them.
For goods.
For services access to the EU market is just as important. There will need to be a deal cut on them. And that will involve "regulatory alignment". Northern Ireland - and hence the UK if we are to take David Davis at face value (and why shouldn't we) - cannot maintain an open border with the RoI and have a regulatory regime for financial services that runs contrary to the one in the EU, for example.
We export more services to non-EU markets than to the EU. There is no regulatory alignment with the rest of the world other than what is covered by the WTO (not a lot for services trade).
Additionally the single market for services is almost non-existent. Switzerland gets by just fine (better than fine) without 100% regulatory alignment with the EU on services.
Additionally, you imply that the EU is a closed market to any company or country which doesn't have regulatory alignment. It may be protectionist, but it's not as bad as that. As long as our companies comply with EU regulations for services being sold in then there's no real issue. The same applies for goods, of course, but most of that comes from the WTO which the EU just passes on as some directive or other. The issue with goods is and has always been tariffs. If we can agree tariff free trade with the EU most of the border issues go away.
Additionally, tariffs are a joke these days, multinational corporations import everything to Ireland at well, well below cost so they can book all of the profit in Ireland where they pay effective rates of tax at just 1-2%. In the end, a deal can be done but the EU would never allow such a deal to go through as it will weaken their continued case for existence.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is. I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision. The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Jon Lansman is about to be elected to the NEC. The private company he owns controls the Momentum database. Through this database, Momentum communicates with hundreds of thousands of Labour members and supporters - including making recommendations as to who they should vote for in internal elections. Momentum's pitch is that it backs Jeremy and Jeremy reciprocates. Thus, if you are a Corbynista and Momentum recommends you vote for a certain candidate you are basically being told who Jeremy wants to win.
There have always been rival slates in internal Labour elections. It worked in exactly the same way when Blair was leader - the moderate slate was promoted by Progress/Labour First and the left one by CLPD and other left groups. Nothing new there.
Yep, the biggest blind spot in the Labour mindset is its fondness for centralisation and command-and-control. Not just within the party - it's why the entire public sector got deluged in a tide of targets, indicators, and clever schemes intended to enable central government to force councils, schools and hospitals to spend money in the way that central government wanted them to. And in the process demoralising thousands of public servants who would have flourished given a bit of responsibly and trust to make their own decisions on how to do their job. It's the main reason why, despite all their good intentions, Labour will always fail to deliver what it claims to want.
This is a much-touted theory among Conservatives. The only problem is that there isn't the slightest evidence of any regret on the part of those who voted Labour in June.
Well, lots of those people are still trying to stop Brexit, or at the very least protest heavily against it. I'm not expecting them to be grateful as and when Brexit occurs, but it does change the nature of their next vote (every vote being a mixture of retrospective and prospective).
But I do think the Conservatives need to choose our next leader very carefully!
Roy Moore's Spokeswoman Said His Opponent Would Support Killing A CNN Anchor's "Unborn Child"
In a pretty wild interview with CNN anchor Poppy Harlow on Tuesday, Roy Moore's campaign spokeswoman, Janet Porter, brought up Harlow's "unborn child" twice to defend the Alabama Senate candidate against allegations of child molestation and sexual misconduct.
They'll vote for who Jon Lansman tells them to vote for.
I doubt that a majority of Labour Party members even know who Jon Lansman is.
No. Today's left are not the tightly-disciplined political obsessives of the 1980s and early 1990s. They are mostly political novices with a slightly starry-eyed perspective on Corbyn and Momentum but their policy positions are generally undeveloped and they are much too young to have much understanding of the 1970s Marxism that drove Corbyn and McDonnell. The Party is in a state of flux and the idea that it is on the road to becoming a latter-day version of the Soviet Communist Party is misplaced.
Again, that is what makes Lansman so powerful. Most Labour members keep only half an eye on what is happening in the party - if that - and are drawn personally to Corbyn. They actually rely on being told what Jeremy wants and who he supports. He gets to do that through his database. And that means Momentum candidates take control of the levers of power inside the party so that when Jeremy does step down they still control things whoever is leader.
The interesting thing about the opinion polls at the moment is that however you take an average of them Labour are not advancing on their general election showing. If you take an average of the last 5 polls, Labour are on just over 41%, if you take an average of the last 10 polls, Labour are on just over 41%. The same is true for the last 15 or 20 polls. At the general election Labour polled just over 41%. The only change is a small drop in the Tory share going to minor parties.
The Tories have to hope they can claw some of them back post Brexit, under a new leader, as well as make inroads into the North.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives need to do something spectacular to get listened to by metropolitans and pro-Remain supporters again. They look lost for a generation to me.
I think it's brave to make any political forecasts over that time horizon, particularly in the current climate.
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
You haven't begun to conceive of the depths of loathing felt.
No. As a Labour canvasser knocking gingerly on doors in prosperous looking streets in London at the start of the general election campaign, when we thought we were going to get hammered, I was gobsmacked to find that many people recorded in our contact system as Tories were going to vote Labour because of Brexit. At the time this seemed unbelievable - surely Corbyn would be anathema to them? But this was not the case.
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Corbyn and McDonell will if there is areal prospect of a Labour majority.
Indeed. I think a lot of people saw GE2017 as a free hit against the government and a hard brexit, as a Con victory looked nailed on. That won't be the case this time around. Fear of Corbynomics will be real.
This is a much-touted theory among Conservatives. The only problem is that there isn't the slightest evidence of any regret on the part of those who voted Labour in June.
Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth and Ilford North all went from the marginal category to very safe Labour.
In Ilford North's case this arose from demographic change (more ethnic minorities, more tenants, and more young people) and the impossibility of the local housing market.
This is a much-touted theory among Conservatives. The only problem is that there isn't the slightest evidence of any regret on the part of those who voted Labour in June.
Well, lots of those people are still trying to stop Brexit, or at the very least protest heavily against it. I'm not expecting them to be grateful as and when Brexit occurs, but it does change the nature of their next vote (every vote being a mixture of retrospective and prospective).
But I do think the Conservatives need to choose our next leader very carefully!
If the Conservatives want to try to gain the votes of deserting Remain supporters after Brexit, they need to consider what message they are going to give to people who think they're deranged lunatics who have acted completely against the best interests of the country and inflicted lasting damage.
I tentatively suggest that might be a stiff proposition for the most impressive statesman or woman, and the Conservative party is not awash with candidates that fit that description.
Comments
We may be free to set our own regulations on bell-ringing and stamp collecting, though :-)
If you voted for Leave you pay a regular tax to compensate Remainers for the economic terrorism that is Leave.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/fdp-wolfgang-kubicki-bringt-wiederaufnahme-der-jamaika-gespraeche-ins-spiel-a-1181823.html
(But I fear a father gets only half-points. Less if he doesn't change nappies).
The Tories will never win them back through the culture wars. They might though (albeit reluctantly) if Corbyn hits them directly in the pocket, which he almost certainly will.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/938062970080432129/photo/1
No, I don't either.
The impression I get is that this seems to be of a part with Barnier's speech last week about the UK 'betraying' Europe's security - and many other similar comments.
The language on their part has been at various times triumphalist; undiplomatic; hubristic; confrontational...
I understand that they wish to achieve the best possible deal for Europe; what I don't understand is why they might think it a good idea to engineer the worst possible circumstances for us and require us to publicly acknowledge the same.
It's great is opposition, you can be all things to all men....
In contrast Corbyn had a free hit. He was going to get thrashed so he could say what he wanted and do what he wanted. Very few took his positions seriously but what did it matter anyway?
The polls, not for the first time in recent times, seriously distorted the result. People were misinformed and reacted accordingly. Hardly anyone wanted May to have a huge majority, she has far too strong autocratic tendencies for that, but how many really wanted a weak government hamstrung to every special interest group and unable to negotiate Brexit effectively? The result was a disaster, and not just for the Tory party. It will cost this country billions.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/dec/05/theresa-may-struggles-to-rescue-brexit-deal-as-dublin-says-it-wont-back-down-politics-live
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/why-deal-irish-border-and-softer-brexit-may-be-cards
Nothing that has happened since then will have drawn these people back to the Tories.
Before you know it JR-M's constituents (to say nothing of the DM, Sun, Express, etc) will be asking why we aren't pushing for regulatory alignment. And a patriot and diligent constituency MP such as he is will find it difficult to argue.
Next year should be fun politically. Lets hope for a new election and the betting opportunities within.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/938067406886506496
Does make me wonder if there'll be another referendum.
Easier to cancel Brexit via a general election with the winning party promising to repeal Brexit or keep us in the single market/customs union.
Q2. What was the result of said Referendum?
Q3. Is Norway in the EU?
I’m a member who reads this website far too much and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
I think the members will vote for an inspiring vision.
The argument ‘we need to be realistic/pragmatic/not spook middle England will be given very short shrift.
If a more centrist candidate can put across that vision- and avoid attacking Corbyn - then I think they would have a very good chance.
Has he reached his limit plus he will give back the "he can never win so eff off Brexiting Theresa" Cons votes, or are those Cons votes when push comes to shove happier with a Lab govt than Brexit plus has he still to plunder fertile grounds for yet more votes?
Interesting move.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/938031165184888832
That we are paying a significant part of the salaries of the EU officials - and that they are expecting us to continue to do so for some time - adds to the insult.
Not something I see tripping off JRM's tongue. Where is his red line?
Additionally the single market for services is almost non-existent. Switzerland gets by just fine (better than fine) without 100% regulatory alignment with the EU on services.
Additionally, you imply that the EU is a closed market to any company or country which doesn't have regulatory alignment. It may be protectionist, but it's not as bad as that. As long as our companies comply with EU regulations for services being sold in then there's no real issue. The same applies for goods, of course, but most of that comes from the WTO which the EU just passes on as some directive or other. The issue with goods is and has always been tariffs. If we can agree tariff free trade with the EU most of the border issues go away.
Additionally, tariffs are a joke these days, multinational corporations import everything to Ireland at well, well below cost so they can book all of the profit in Ireland where they pay effective rates of tax at just 1-2%. In the end, a deal can be done but the EU would never allow such a deal to go through as it will weaken their continued case for existence.
But I do think the Conservatives need to choose our next leader very carefully!
Roy Moore's Spokeswoman Said His Opponent Would Support Killing A CNN Anchor's "Unborn Child"
In a pretty wild interview with CNN anchor Poppy Harlow on Tuesday, Roy Moore's campaign spokeswoman, Janet Porter, brought up Harlow's "unborn child" twice to defend the Alabama Senate candidate against allegations of child molestation and sexual misconduct.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/roy-moores-spokeswoman-defended-him-by-saying-he-would-not?utm_term=.riY7d2koqA&bftwnews#.jegPy67dJO
I tentatively suggest that might be a stiff proposition for the most impressive statesman or woman, and the Conservative party is not awash with candidates that fit that description.