Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Irish border shambles

13

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,164

    As PB now seems to offer free legal advice, could anyone clarify how the Panda defence works? :

    Now, if they had charged him with pandering...

    Eats shoots and leaves.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    kyf_100 said:



    Quite possibly the vast majority of people who voted in 2016 don't care so much now (though I think my card-carrying UKIP example may be an exception), but I'm pretty sure if they are dragged to the ballot box again, either for a second referendum or because the government falls over Brexit and GE2018 becomes a de facto referendum, a lot of people will be voting on the "oi, didn't you hear us when we told you the first time?" principle.

    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
  • Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trust me - being told we can't leave because some other country says we can't plays very badly in Brexitland, because it was precisely why people voted to leave in the first place.

    Tell me, in Brexitland, is Northern Ireland 'some other country'?
    ...
    (Snip)
    I can understand where you are coming from re: this.
    thought that was last year"
    rs". All of this pretty much demolishes any sense there might have been in your post.


    I agree the bowling was good, and the South African spinner led the charge, but all the batters performed creditably, and you'd have to say that if Malan were on the Essex staff he wouldn't be picked unless, possibly, you dropped Westley. (That would be a very close call, but he certainly would not get in ahead of Cook, Browne, Lawrence and Bopara.)
    Good analysis. I saw some part at least of pretty well all the real games last summer (not t20) and while I agree about the players there was another element which doesn’t quite appear to be there with this England side; team spirit.
    I do wonder, though, what more Browne has to do to get picked for at least the Lions.

    I wonder what part cricket politics play in this; Essex were one of (I think) only two who opposed the City t20 Cup planned for the next but one (?) season.
    Browne was very unlucky. He's a very similar player to Stoneman. I would have picked either ahead of Jennings though, who was struggling for form with an out of form Durham side in Division Two when the slectors decided to give him a run against South Africa.

    Cricket politics stinks, and has done back to the time of bodyline at least. Wisden is full of the records of outstanding English cricketers whose talents were never fully recognised because they plied their trade too far away from St John's Wood. This why Malan and Roland-Jones stick in the craw. They are not bad players, but if they didn't play for Middlesex they would never have been considered for the England team.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748
    I don't agree with the investigation into electoral interference.

    The implicit assumption is that Leave voters are morons who believe everything they read in the media, social or otherwise.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    TOPPING said:

    I don't agree with the investigation into electoral interference.

    The implicit assumption is that Leave voters are morons who believe everything they read in the media, social or otherwise.

    and buses
  • If the UK government is widely thought to be struggling in the EU negotiations, it would seem that the tactics deployed by the EU have done nothing to endear that institution to voters in Britain. This is, perhaps, an important reminder that we should not presume that the UK government will necessarily get the blame if Britain does emerge from the negotiations with what is widely regarded as a ‘bad’ deal. At the moment, at least, with no less than 41% of voters thinking that both the UK and the EU government have performed badly, many evidently feel that the fault for the relative lack of progress in the talks lies on both sides of the negotiating table.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EU-Briefing-Paper-11-Half-time-brexit-negotiations.pdf
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,401
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting article and interview. Shambles is a totally inadequate word. It's starting to look tricky for May.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,979
    I really can't fathom why the DUP were kept out of the loop, when drafting the text.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting article and interview. Shambles is a totally inadequate word. It's starting to look tricky for May.

    Nah. It's quintessentially British.
  • Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
  • kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.

  • Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Arguments based on appeals to authority are pathetic

    You claimed the case had not been made.

    The case was made. And dismissed by the charlatans and demagogues fronting the leave campaigns.

    Bullshit beats facts. Brexit, Corbyn, Trump.
    I was meaning over the last 20 years, not during the campaign
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,247
    Sandpit said:

    And Ali lasts 20 balls for his two runs. Pleased for my bet but this is a shocking middle order performance from England. Seven overs until the new ball, if we last that long. 190/7.

    As you seem to have been the only one posting as England folded, you are clearly now England's' Jonah, and should be shunned by all right thinking cricket patriots... :smile:

    Good to see that the bet succeeded, though.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001

    France on verge of cultural collapse

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/

    Johnny Halliday dies
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,979

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    Her style of government is secretive, nervous, and defensive.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    "Come on, Arlene" is a good line. However, it could've just as easily been Juncker saying he's very disappointed... she didn't roll over.

    Mr. F, indeed. Some secrecy is fine but if others have a genuine say you can't just not tell them until the eleventh hour.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2017
    TOPPING said:

    I don't agree with the investigation into electoral interference.

    The implicit assumption is that Leave voters are morons who believe everything they read in the media, social or otherwise.

    Electorates have always been manipulated, after all that is the lifeblood of politics. What is new is the advent of Social Media to do so. Previously it had to be via broadcast media or printed propaganda.

    By its very nature Social Media is international, so not controllable by our own politicians. We are vulnerable to manipulation both by self serving US controlled companies, and by foreign governments with subversive intent. It makes the days of Murdoch and Rothermere seem rather quaint.

    The answer perhaps is via mass participation. Calling out troll accounts seems to be increasingly common on the twittersphere. Similarly, we know that a significant number of MPs read PB, possibly even extending to my own below the line ramblings. It is a new form of democratic debate, and one where the destination is as yet unclear. No going back is possible.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687

    If the UK government is widely thought to be struggling in the EU negotiations, it would seem that the tactics deployed by the EU have done nothing to endear that institution to voters in Britain. This is, perhaps, an important reminder that we should not presume that the UK government will necessarily get the blame if Britain does emerge from the negotiations with what is widely regarded as a ‘bad’ deal. At the moment, at least, with no less than 41% of voters thinking that both the UK and the EU government have performed badly, many evidently feel that the fault for the relative lack of progress in the talks lies on both sides of the negotiating table.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EU-Briefing-Paper-11-Half-time-brexit-negotiations.pdf

    Once again PB shows how much it's headers and contributors reflect the great British public :-D
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,206
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Keir Starmer tells #r4today he "wouldn't rule out" the UK staying in the single market and customs union after Brexit - which Jeremy Corbyn previously has.

    How is this man still in the shadcab?
    Never rule anything out, or anything in, until you are in a position to actually do something. Being in Opposition, under our rules in Westminster, means criticising the Executive decisions and policies. When the Opposition becomes the Government, then the positions are reversed. But why tie your hands behind your back, makes trying to move the levers of power when given them, rather difficult.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,401
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting article and interview. Shambles is a totally inadequate word. It's starting to look tricky for May.

    Nah. It's quintessentially British.
    ".......I don't know why they would even sit down with her again unless she has all her ducks in a row" asks the American interviewer incredulously........

    ...obviously new to the job
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
  • Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    Her style of government is secretive, nervous, and defensive.
    If I was a Brexiter, I'd be furious with her. Her tin ear and secrecy puts Brexit at risk.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
  • Remember when Macron was even more unpopular than Hollande?
  • Interesting mirror views of 'who's doing well or badly' in Brexit negotiations:

    Handling negotiations 'Badly' (Voted Remain/Voted Leave)
    UK: 71 : 50
    EU: 50 : 71

    Handling negotiations 'Well' (Voted Remain/Voted Leave)
    UK: 9 : 21
    EU: 22 : 10
  • kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.

    JRM would need a new general election mandate. I doubt he could carry the current Tory benches to the kind of Brexit he wants.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,562
    edited December 2017
    Interesting point. The influence of not MPs on British politics is huge and a critical part of Brexit story.. You're better off not in the Commons and Cabinet.

    Farage
    Foster
    Sturgeon
    Lansman
    (and Boris as Mayor)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,979

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty .."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    I don't necessarily think the DUP would have blocked what the British and Irish governments are trying to achieve, had they been consulted.

    But, when you have a text sprung on you, just before it's due to be signed off, after selective leaks suggesting that you've been shafted, you're bound to be suspicious.

  • Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
  • HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP

    I was arguing this yesterday - everyone wins. The DUP get to say No before they say Yes; May gets to say she got concessions; the Irish get what they want. However, if that is the case it seems that May has managed to bugger it up.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,544
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP
    Good morning all.

    Sadly, I think this unlikely. May has form here, and she could have simply misjudged the DUP. I feel sorry for her, but I don't think she's an wartime consigliere effective leader in these times.

    People have raised an important point downthread; I do think things are going badly; I do not place the blame entirely on HMG.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001


    Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

    DUP said Varadkar vetoed sharing the text for 5 weeks

    the DUP may be bastards but theyre usually straight on their statements
  • CONCLUSION
    One strand of comment that has been common amongst those who oppose Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is that when the alleged difficulties and consequences of Brexit become clear to voters they will come to regret the decision to Leave – or at least will wish to sue for a soft Brexit. The experience of the last six months suggests this logic may be faulty.


    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EU-Briefing-Paper-11-Half-time-brexit-negotiations.pdf
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,992

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    You sound a bit aggressive about it. The short answer is that it would be irrelevant, because watching pornography does not afaik constitute evidence of a propensity to sexually assault people. But the mere fact of Quick and Lewis being in breach of alleged duties of confidentiality in now disclosing this material would not make their evidence in court on these matters inadmissible, as far as I can see.

    Are you sure? The magistrate I work with thinks otherwise, but I'd really like to know what our legal eagles think. None of them have said though.
    The fact that a computer used by Green had legal pornography on it would not be relevant evidence were Green to be tried on a charge of sexual assault. It does not seem to me, based on what I know, to fall within scope of “similar fact evidence”.

    Assuming, for a moment, that it was allowed in evidence, there would then be the issue of its probative value: how was the computer searched it, who did it, what records were kept at the time, what other checks were made etc.... The opinions of the police officers years later do not constitute evidence.

    Generally, the prosecution are not allowed to adduce evidence of bad character except in very specific and limited circumstances. And remember it is the prosecution which would have to prove its case (of sexual assault) beyond reasonable doubt. Viewing or having legal pornography is not a criminal offence and would not be an issue in such a case.

    That is one reason why the disclosure of this information - for no good reason other than that it seemed titillating at a time when interest was focused on MPs’ sex lives - is so damaging. Green cannot clear his name of this allegation and is having to defend himself against a charge of doing something legal, however immoral some may find it. Even if it were true that he did view legal pornography, it is not the job of the police to monitor public morality or to act as Parliament’s HR department.

    Remember also that they searched his home and looked at love letters to his wife and other personal stuff. If they did not destroy data relating to the computer, as they were ordered to, how much confidence can Green have that they have not kept other material and that it might be released in future to embarrass him?

    Breaching confidentiality and abuse of power by the police are more serious, IMO, than the seedy viewing habits of middle-aged men.
    That's exactly what I wanted someone more sensible than me to say, thank you!

    As I said before, his name could be cleared by the cops being charged with falsifying the evidence.
    I hardly think his name needs clearing. If someone is out to get you and this is all they can find you must lead an extraordinarily blameless life.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Trust me - being told we can't leave because some other country says we can't plays very badly in Brexitland, because it was precisely why people voted to leave in the first place.

    Tell me, in Brexitland, is Northern Ireland 'some other country'?
    I once attended a wedding reception not far outside of Hartlepool. I was the only person there who wasn't northern and working class.
    (Snip)

    In most people's minds, outside of politico-wonk-land, it really is that simple. To the vast majority of ordinary people, it is not about the subtleties of hard borders or soft borders - it is about who will deliver Brexit or not. That is what they voted for. And woe betide anyone who tries to stop it.
    I can understand where you are coming from re: this.
    However, this is very simplistic You assume people divide their loyalties by Brexit/ anti-Brexit.
    Far more are Labour/Tory.
    Many more don't care.
    My view is that Brexit-interested v Brexit-bored breaks about 30/70.
    As a caller on R5L said today " Brexit? Is that still a thing? I thought that was last year"
    Given the lowest the Tories have fallen since WW2 is r mind.
    Forgive me, HY, but you really should try to treat PB'ers to better than this cod analysis of yours here. Firstly, the population since WW2 is obviously not static - at each successive GE, on average, more than 5% of the previous electorate will have died and 5% will be brand new, due to aging. Then there is immigration and emigration. Then there is the fact that, with turnouts normally in the 60-70% range, it isn't the same people who vote every time - there is a considerable population of "sometimes voters". All of this pretty much demolishes any sense there might have been in your post.

    On the fundamental point, Dixie is right that most people don't care that much about the EU either way. They do care, however, about the economy, ease of trade and travel, and a host of other things that might go horrendously wrong if your government continues to progress toward Brexit in such a cack handed way, and indeed might go wrong regardless of how Brexit is done. As I anticipate you will be discovering.
    No it doesn't as no matter what the demographic changes or turnout the Tories and Labour are each guaranteed to get close to a third of the vote. It is only the other third who ever change their vote and can really be considered swing voters.

    The whole point of the referendum result was that people did not care so much about the economy that they were prepared to ignore immigration concerns because of it, so your point on that is wrong as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,562
    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

  • Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

    DUP said Varadkar vetoed sharing the text for 5 weeks

    the DUP may be bastards but theyre usually straight on their statements

    And the Irish government has denied it. But if they are lying, you then have to ask yourself why May agreed to such a demand; and why she also kept it from the Cabinet - including David Davis, apparently!!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP

    I was arguing this yesterday - everyone wins. The DUP get to say No before they say Yes; May gets to say she got concessions; the Irish get what they want. However, if that is the case it seems that May has managed to bugger it up.

    Though that might well be the end result
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,992

    CONCLUSION
    One strand of comment that has been common amongst those who oppose Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is that when the alleged difficulties and consequences of Brexit become clear to voters they will come to regret the decision to Leave – or at least will wish to sue for a soft Brexit. The experience of the last six months suggests this logic may be faulty.


    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EU-Briefing-Paper-11-Half-time-brexit-negotiations.pdf

    I have thought all along that if the EU wants to help Britain back in it should make leaving as easy as possible. The sunk cost fallacy is a tough one to beat, and if leaving is really hard work it will make people reluctant to want to rejoin and make all that effort pointless.
  • Morning Brexit Watchers,

    Today's agenda, neatly summed by Beth Rigby:

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP
    Good morning all.

    Sadly, I think this unlikely. May has form here, and she could have simply misjudged the DUP. I feel sorry for her, but I don't think she's an wartime consigliere effective leader in these times.

    People have raised an important point downthread; I do think things are going badly; I do not place the blame entirely on HMG.
    Sorry but even Thatcher, Churchill and Blair in their prime would not be able to get the DUP to accept what the EU and Ireland originally wanted for NI, so it depends on either concessions by the latter or regulatory alignment across the UK with the EU to get to a deal
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP

    I was arguing this yesterday - everyone wins. The DUP get to say No before they say Yes; May gets to say she got concessions; the Irish get what they want. However, if that is the case it seems that May has managed to bugger it up.

    Though that might well be the end result

    Let's hope so. I am all for regulatory alignment and see no reason why it should not be UK-wide. It will clearly get us the best Brexit deal available to us and that has to be the priority.

  • Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001


    Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

    DUP said Varadkar vetoed sharing the text for 5 weeks

    the DUP may be bastards but theyre usually straight on their statements

    And the Irish government has denied it. But if they are lying, you then have to ask yourself why May agreed to such a demand; and why she also kept it from the Cabinet - including David Davis, apparently!!

    because May is swimming with sharks and not doing a terribly good job of it
  • felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    That's a feeble parody, Felix.
  • HYUFD said:

    Perhaps May did have a cunning plan after all, go all out for a deal to get the Irish and EU on board, show she had her hands tied by the DUP, get the Irish to then make some concessions to win over the DUP

    I was arguing this yesterday - everyone wins. The DUP get to say No before they say Yes; May gets to say she got concessions; the Irish get what they want. However, if that is the case it seems that May has managed to bugger it up.

    I don't think May can get out of this at all. The DUP will be fine if she says that any alignment will not impact NI separately, but the idea of agreeing alignment at all (at least prior to trade talks) is quite rightly anathema to the Tory Leavers.

    May should have issued the commitments to no Hard Border using options A and B (as per Peston's report) and refused point blank to go further. She would have gotten away with it - the EU were just trying it on with this issue. But because she backed down, the EU and Ireland will now insist on this remaining in the agreement.

    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    I don't think that May can recover this. No doubt she will concede alignment for the whole UK and try to spin like it doesn't mean anything, but everyone knows that in trade talks it will mean EVERYTHING.

    She has two choices - come out as a 'soft' Brexiteer who will happily tie the UK to EU regulations (in return for a crap trade deal) or withdraw from talks. As she will do neither, I am not sure she can even survive until the New Year.

  • Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

    DUP said Varadkar vetoed sharing the text for 5 weeks

    the DUP may be bastards but theyre usually straight on their statements

    And the Irish government has denied it. But if they are lying, you then have to ask yourself why May agreed to such a demand; and why she also kept it from the Cabinet - including David Davis, apparently!!

    because May is swimming with sharks and not doing a terribly good job of it

    That is very clear. If the DUP is correct, the British PM did Ireland's bidding. You cannot blame the Irish for the fact that the British PM is so weak-willed and subservient. If the DUP is correct.


  • "Mrs May now faces one of the biggest battles of her career to salvage the deal after Cabinet ministers, the DUP and the Irish government all suggested she had gone behind their backs."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/05/brexit-deal-chaos-theresa-may-warned-will-face-leadership-challenge/


  • Which is the bigger problem, the DUP saying 'No' to a border, or May's hopelessly and utterly split Cabinet?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,790



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
  • Which is the bigger problem, the DUP saying 'No' to a border, or May's hopelessly and utterly split Cabinet?

    It is May's fault. At some stage, she needed to take the whole cabinet away, debate the form of Brexit and vote on it, with the losers either accepting collective responsibility or resigning. Going behind their backs will almost certainly cause a leadership challenge.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Which is the bigger problem, the DUP saying 'No' to a border, or May's hopelessly and utterly split Cabinet?

    It is May's fault. At some stage, she needed to take the whole cabinet away, debate the form of Brexit and vote on it, with the losers either accepting collective responsibility or resigning. Going behind their backs will almost certainly cause a leadership challenge.
    The problem with that assertion is that it defines a very tight negotiating strategy, with no room for compromise in the room. The cabinet cannot agree to something it does not know is offered. So they agree a range of outcomes maybe, which is what seems to have been the case all along, but in the end the deal has to be thrashed out between the main protagonists and the outcome ratified by cabinet in that order.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001


    Lets hope he's not left it too late....

    Two former Taoiseachs implicitly criticising him and his ambitious Foreign Minister may have hit home.....

    Not sure how you can blame the Irish PM for the fact Theresa May failed to consult her colleagues and the DUP before agreeing a deal. The fact that he is willing to add a clarification shows that he has got what he wanted.

    DUP said Varadkar vetoed sharing the text for 5 weeks

    the DUP may be bastards but theyre usually straight on their statements

    And the Irish government has denied it. But if they are lying, you then have to ask yourself why May agreed to such a demand; and why she also kept it from the Cabinet - including David Davis, apparently!!

    because May is swimming with sharks and not doing a terribly good job of it

    That is very clear. If the DUP is correct, the British PM did Ireland's bidding. You cannot blame the Irish for the fact that the British PM is so weak-willed and subservient. If the DUP is correct.

    lol

    if the Irish govt is daft enough to play the northern card and cant do UK parliamentary arithmetic I dont need to blame them for chancing their arm with May, instead I have to question their sanity

    which obviously is where I am
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001

    Germans tell EU commission no changes to Euro as Germany will not pay for Europe

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/csu-politiker-weber-warnt-eu-kommission-15327028.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,286

    Let's hope so. I am all for regulatory alignment and see no reason why it should not be UK-wide. It will clearly get us the best Brexit deal available to us and that has to be the priority.

    Apparently only available in the event of no deal...

    @GuardianAnushka: Have been told “regulatory alignment” were request from Irish govt to cover situation (which govt says won’t happen) of no trade deal agreed
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
    While I am in favour of all power to the workers Soviets, even I would baulk at the miners deciding the PM :)
  • TonyE said:

    Which is the bigger problem, the DUP saying 'No' to a border, or May's hopelessly and utterly split Cabinet?

    It is May's fault. At some stage, she needed to take the whole cabinet away, debate the form of Brexit and vote on it, with the losers either accepting collective responsibility or resigning. Going behind their backs will almost certainly cause a leadership challenge.
    The problem with that assertion is that it defines a very tight negotiating strategy, with no room for compromise in the room. The cabinet cannot agree to something it does not know is offered. So they agree a range of outcomes maybe, which is what seems to have been the case all along, but in the end the deal has to be thrashed out between the main protagonists and the outcome ratified by cabinet in that order.
    Not really, the UK Government never made its mind up on the key issues - are we converging or diverging with EU regulation, what is our position on sovereignty etc. It is true that based on the answers to those questions, the UK may have been required to exit with no deal, but that should have been discussed and agreed or rejected. The cabinet should have agreed a negotiating mandate for Davis in exactly the same way that the EU did for Barnier, so he knew exactly how far he could go.

    In fact, the cabinet doesn't have a bottom line which is what has caused this fiasco - nobody knows whether regulatory alignment is a red line or not.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,376
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    FPTP already does that in 80% of the country
  • Mr. P, if that's accurate then Varadkar wanted to be able to impose a customs border within the UK if the UK didn't agree to Irish/EU demands on a trade deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,286

    In fact, the cabinet doesn't have a bottom line which is what has caused this fiasco - nobody knows whether regulatory alignment is a red line or not.

    Which day of the week is it?

    It's only a red line on days with an R in them
  • Mr. P, if that's accurate then Varadkar wanted to be able to impose a customs border within the UK if the UK didn't agree to Irish/EU demands on a trade deal.

    Yep. And it looks like May was going to agree. As I said, thank goodness for the DUP.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,790

    Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    I don't think the English have a civil war in them.

    "In the last decade of their grandeur, Englishmen seemed for the first time to become conscious of what before was taken for granted, and to salute their achievement at the moment of extinction." As Waugh wrote...
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    That's a feeble parody, Felix.
    It is actually the logical consequence of what you said which is basically that voters are too thick to vote the way you want. you ought to at least have the decency to admit it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    FPTP already does that in 80% of the country
    Clearly not enough to satisfy PtP.
  • Its amazing the number of posters on here who have access to the inner musings of the cabinet and its members.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687
    currystar said:

    Its amazing the number of posters on here who have access to the inner musings of the cabinet and its members.

    +1 And who think Guardian correspondents offer a bias free insight.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,687
    And little impact on people's views on Brexit.
  • See link to full report upthread......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    56% blame the EU, almost as many as the 61% who blame the UK government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884

    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
    While I am in favour of all power to the workers Soviets, even I would baulk at the miners deciding the PM :)
    The joys of predictive text
  • One good aspect of this Irish issue is the quality of political cartoons (which with the honourable exception of Matt, have been pretty dire) - have started getting a lot better:

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
    So as I said, Rudd.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,786
    edited December 2017
    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
  • Hadn't heard of this one....

    A [Labour] council leader has resigned as the fallout continues from a row over voting in June's general election.

    Elizabeth Shenton stood down as the leader of Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council after losing the support of independents. The Conservatives have now taken control from Labour.

    Almost 1,500 people were unable to vote in a constituency that saw the successful [Labour] MP win by just 30 votes.


    [added for clarity]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-42246593
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    56% blame the EU, so any difference is negligible
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,979

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    I think that if it all ends badly, Remainers will mostly blame the government, and Leavers will mostly blame the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884

    Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    More Leavers are likely veterans though
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2017

    Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    Someone needs to rewrite dad's army, renaming a few characters and inserting an eager to please and ambitious, yet hopelessly incompetent and slightly deluded secretary called Theresa.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,884
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
    So as I said, Rudd.
    Davis would beat her with the membership even if she gets to the final 2
  • Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    Where's the sarcasm emoji?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    Sean_F said:

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    I think that if it all ends badly, Remainers will mostly blame the government, and Leavers will mostly blame the EU.
    No shit, Sherlock :D
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    More Leavers are likely veterans though
    I still think we can take them by cutting off the supply lines of cocoa.

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/11/11/article-1084751-026EE645000005DC-536_468x306.jpg
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,523
    edited December 2017
    I'm surprised Starmer keeps getting away with his illogical ramblings. He 'accepts' the referendum result but demands we stay in the European common market and customs union.

    We can't have this and leave.

    The EU cannot and will not allow this for good reasons. Even as a Leaver, I can understand their determination to keep this. It is logical.

    The EU want and need a united single country. Currently, we have 28 different countries with their own agenda. A good example is CAP - brought in by and for the French to protect their small, family and inefficient farms. By comparison, it's often said that Lincolnshire is the most industrialised county in the UK. The industry just happens to be farming.

    For the EU to thrive, it needs one nation, one aim, one army, and one Parliament to restrain the nationalistic and inefficient squabbles. It must move towards this unification aim.

    That means Starmer is talking shite, and even worse, he knows he is. Yet the media seem unusually restrained with him. Still, he is a posho, isn't he? And the right sort of posho.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    Scott_P said:
    Jesus. H. Christ. On a bike.

    You have got to be f*#king kidding.
  • Mr. CD13, quite. Declining trust in the media (no mention it was a Green Belgian MEP who leaked when the BBC was covering the events of Monday) is another depressing trend, but they're not exactly helping themselves.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    Nah. You have neither the commitment nor the ruthlessness. Your snowflake generation wouldn't last 30 seconds.
This discussion has been closed.