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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Irish border shambles

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  • Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jesus. H. Christ. On a bike.

    You have got to be f*#king kidding.
    What a bloody shambles
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    Davis would likely beat any Remainer with the membership but Rees Mogg, Boris or Gove would likely beat Davis
  • *sighs*
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277
    @faisalislam: Davis says that will do impact assessments as go into phase 2 to inform negotiation, eg on agriculture, but won’t release publicly
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Davis says that will do impact assessments as go into phase 2 to inform negotiation, eg on agriculture, but won’t release publicly

    They wanted phase 2 to start in October. Why are they still talking in the future tense about work they're planning to do at some point?
  • Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jesus. H. Christ. On a bike.

    You have got to be f*#king kidding.
    It really does seem there is no genuine intention to leave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:
    What is the point of these assessments? If we don't get a FTA we know they will suffer so why not focus on getting a FTA rather than stating the obvious?
  • David David lied to Parliament didn’t he?

    He ought to resign.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    HYUFD said:

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    56% blame the EU, so any difference is negligible
    Yes I agree, hence my use of the word slightly, but it was not too long ago when some on here were confidently predicting the EU would cop for all the blame. 50%+ blaming the government is going to be a significant headwind at the next GE because not many will be blaiming Labour.

    Which is why the Tories desperately need a good negotiated outcome and if the reports about revolt by Johnson and Gove are true they are leading the Tories to disaster.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,735
    Mr Eagles,

    "Keep on laying David Davis."

    I blamed Cameron totally for the lack of any RIA, but your mate, George, could have his fingerprints all over that. They were in government at the time.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    so after a year of bleating Remain has persudaded no-one and the voters dont give a shit about the consequences
    And of course Leave has persuaded nobody either, which is as good an indication as any as to why it makes sense to elect professional politicians to run the country sensibly, rather than have foreign and economic policy determined by referendums in which most of the votes are cast by people who can barely run their own affairs.
    Surely better still to abandon elections altogether - let's put the great and good back in charge and put the proles back in their place.
    That's a feeble parody, Felix.
    It is actually the logical consequence of what you said which is basically that voters are too thick to vote the way you want. you ought to at least have the decency to admit it.
    If you cannot tell the difference between a parliamentary democracy and populism I can't help you.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277
    They really are just taking the piss now...

    @faisalislam: Davis: just because you use the word impact does not mean you have done an impact assessment
  • I assume all those Leavers that chastised Cameron for not making preparations for a Leave vote are going to be slaughtering David Davis now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501

    David David lied to Parliament didn’t he?

    He ought to resign.

    Theresa May's real Brexit strategy was just to check periodically whether Davis, Johnson and Fox are dry yet. If not, leave them hanging.
  • Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277

    David David lied to Parliament didn’t he?

    He ought to resign.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Davis says that will do impact assessments as go into phase 2 to inform negotiation, eg on agriculture, but won’t release publicly

    He said they did sectoral studies but again irrelevant the point is to get a FTA
  • Was Green's porn on a laptop? It's still a misuse of work equipment, but it is slightly more explicable (if stupid) that this might have happened at home rather than at Westminster. Might have even been one of his kids.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    Nah. You have neither the commitment nor the ruthlessness. Your snowflake generation wouldn't last 30 seconds.
    It's true. Fanatics versus Men of Reason? The MoRs have no chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145

    HYUFD said:

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    56% blame the EU, so any difference is negligible
    Yes I agree, hence my use of the word slightly, but it was not too long ago when some on here were confidently predicting the EU would cop for all the blame. 50%+ blaming the government is going to be a significant headwind at the next GE because not many will be blaiming Labour.

    Which is why the Tories desperately need a good negotiated outcome and if the reports about revolt by Johnson and Gove are true they are leading the Tories to disaster.
    What is this good outcome? For most voters a FTA that ends free movement exactly as the government is aiming for and exactly as Corbyn is aiming for too
  • HYUFD said:



    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."

    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
    Are MPs really likely to back Davis after his performance today (which is hardly a one-off)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,043

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    guess we should have made sure wealth was flowing evenly round the country otherwise we wouldnt be here
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,735
    Impact Assessments tend to be educated guesswork at best, but the lack of them does show a lack of commitment. How did May and Cameron vote in the great Great Referendum, daddy?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,808
    Let us congratulate a beacon of democracy, progress and enlightenment.
    Finland celebrates 100 years of independence today.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One interesting sub-point from this survey is that (slightly) more people think the UK government are handling negotiations badly compared with those who that of the EU.

    Hands up all those who still think the British public will blame the EU if this all ends in tears.
    56% blame the EU, so any difference is negligible
    Yes I agree, hence my use of the word slightly, but it was not too long ago when some on here were confidently predicting the EU would cop for all the blame. 50%+ blaming the government is going to be a significant headwind at the next GE because not many will be blaiming Labour.

    Which is why the Tories desperately need a good negotiated outcome and if the reports about revolt by Johnson and Gove are true they are leading the Tories to disaster.
    What is this good outcome? For most voters a FTA that ends free movement exactly as the government is aiming for and exactly as Corbyn is aiming for too
    Agreed, but more pertinently a 'no deal', walk-away, hard brexit is not a good outcome, and that's what Gove and Johnson are risking.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,628

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jesus. H. Christ. On a bike.

    You have got to be f*#king kidding.
    It really does seem there is no genuine intention to leave.
    You have to laugh - it's better than Yes Minister.

  • HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145

    HYUFD said:



    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."

    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
    Are MPs really likely to back Davis after his performance today (which is hardly a one-off)?
    If not it may well be JRM, Gove or Boris as PM.

    Though really this issue about sectoral studies or detailed assessments is just an obsession of diehard Remainers who want to see figures for the damage of WTO terms Brexit, neither change the need to focus on a FTA
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,043
    must be using the same tactics as George and Dave
  • Was Green's porn on a laptop? It's still a misuse of work equipment, but it is slightly more explicable (if stupid) that this might have happened at home rather than at Westminster. Might have even been one of his kids.

    Not clear. Its described as 'office computer' But it is known that the porn was accessed in Westminster - but as to 'who did it' - we'll never know (if you rely on evidence) but it 'definitely was Green' (if you're a retired copper who has misappropriated evidence and breached confidentiality rules). No idea of the propensity of teenage girls to look at porn - but at a guess, it may be lower than boys.....Green has two daughters.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145

    HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I have long said the Tories are better off with a Labour minority government under Corbyn that has to deal with the deficit, his economic plans and Brexit than a narrow Tory win a la 1992 next time then a landslide loss a la 1997 after and out of power for a generation.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen lling wages, the NHS, education..."

    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    I agree. The DUP could be relied upon to block it. Ulster says No! should not really surprise. I think the attacks on Green are a proxy for attacks on May, but I cannot see Davis as the benificiary. JRM seems to be the only intelligent person left who still believes in the project, and is willing to play it straight.
    If it were up to the miners alone I think JRM would succeed May but as it is the MPs choose the final 2 and if and when May goes they may well concoct a final 2 of Davis and Rudd to be sent to the membership with Davis winning.
    Are MPs really likely to back Davis after his performance today (which is hardly a one-off)?
    If not it may well be JRM, Gove or Boris as PM.

    Though really this issue about sectoral studies or detailed assessments is just an obsession of diehard Remainers who want to see figures for the damage of WTO terms Brexit, neither change the need to focus on a FTA
    David Davis has said the sectoral impacts are useful to help to work out what type of FTA we need to get.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
    So as I said, Rudd.
    Davis would beat her with the membership even if she gets to the final 2
    No way; he has gone from solid and diligent to ineffective and a patsy.
  • Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:




    I also agree that tribal allegiances Labour vs Tory run very deep. Which is why it was a terrible mistake for the Tories to go wooing the kind of UKIP voter I describe in my anecdote above in GE2017. The fact is a fair proportion of the people who voted Brexit in 2016 a) would never vote Conservative and b) quite like Corbyn, which means that all he has to do is keep shtum on Brexit - forcing him to take an unequivocal stance would have to be a central plank of a hypothetical 2018 campaign, else he wins by default.

    I think that only works if people feel the Tories are handling Brexit pretty well. If it's seen as a bit of a shambles (the current position, surely, even if some sort of scramble to stage 2 is achieved), then banging on about it will just make people feel they're obsessed about something they're actually bad at. Labour's line would be "We'll negotiate a better Brexit - it could hardly be worse than what you've been doing. Now, about falling wages, the NHS, education..."
    There is simply no good answer to a stupid question.
    If it’s a “stupid question” why did Nick Clegg call for one in 2008 and put it in the 2010 manifesto?
    Yeah, it was uncharacteristically stupid of him. I dont think referendums are a good way to decide such issues.

    A Brexit proposed by a political party, willing to take ownership, and with a coherent plan may well have been able to successfully pilot difficult waters. Instead we have poorly prepared people, many of whom never believed in Brexit, trying ineptly to implement it. It is a classic case of: "Fail to prepare, prepare to Fail", for example:



    The latest kerfuffle looks genuinely to be a failure of May's to consult - not even with David Davis let alone the DUP, according to reports.

    The form of wording proposed looks entirely reasonable, and in a rational world, I'd expect "compromise" by both Ireland and the DUP to take place within days.

    Of course, we don't live in a rational world. The DUP might keep this dragging until after Xmas.

    But the real takeaway for me is the utter uselessness and friendlessness of May. Is Green her only ally left? A coup to install David Davis is now entirely feasible, if not probable.
    Her style of government is secretive, nervous, and defensive.
    That is also the House style of the British Civil Service. And probably has been for at least the last 90 years.

    It can be overcome, but it requires will and strong political leadership, which May does not have.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I have long said the Tories are better off with a Labour minority government under Corbyn that has to deal with the deficit, his economic plans and Brexit than a narrow Tory win a la 1992 next time then a landslide loss a la 1997 after and out of power for a generation.
    Lol! We all knew what you meant but it didn't quite come across like that. :)

    The trouble with your entirely reasonable version is that it presupposes Brexit is not the kind of monumental catastrophe that consigns the Tory Party to 50 years in opposition.

    {Whistles quietly.....}
  • Was Green's porn on a laptop? It's still a misuse of work equipment, but it is slightly more explicable (if stupid) that this might have happened at home rather than at Westminster. Might have even been one of his kids.

    Not clear. Its described as 'office computer' But it is known that the porn was accessed in Westminster - but as to 'who did it' - we'll never know (if you rely on evidence) but it 'definitely was Green' (if you're a retired copper who has misappropriated evidence and breached confidentiality rules). No idea of the propensity of teenage girls to look at porn - but at a guess, it may be lower than boys.....Green has two daughters.....
    Ha. Well I think that's the teenager theory blown...
  • TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
    So as I said, Rudd.
    Davis would beat her with the membership even if she gets to the final 2
    No way; he has gone from solid and diligent to ineffective and a patsy.
    I agree. Stick a fork in Davis, he's done.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,628

    HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I am beginning to think that Brexit will not happen. There will be last-minute screaming tyres reversal, either through a second referendum or a general election.
  • How long will La May be able to continue as Prime Minister? Weeks rather than months would be my guess and I don't see her in office beyond 31 March 2018, allowing for a two month election timetable to elect her successor.
    On that basis Betfair's odds of 4.9 on her exit date being in Q1 2018, is equivalent to a 20% chance that she will cease to be PM during this period. This looks on the low side to me, given the Cabinet pressure mounting against her as regards her Brexit stance.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,991

    Was Green's porn on a laptop? It's still a misuse of work equipment, but it is slightly more explicable (if stupid) that this might have happened at home rather than at Westminster. Might have even been one of his kids.

    Not clear. Its described as 'office computer' But it is known that the porn was accessed in Westminster - but as to 'who did it' - we'll never know (if you rely on evidence) but it 'definitely was Green' (if you're a retired copper who has misappropriated evidence and breached confidentiality rules). No idea of the propensity of teenage girls to look at porn - but at a guess, it may be lower than boys.....Green has two daughters.....
    Ha. Well I think that's the teenager theory blown...
    Safest to have politicians who don't have children, we can't take risks.

    That eradicates Ms Leadsome
  • Mr. Nick, entirely possible.

    Mr. Putney, but is that exit from departure, or from announcing her resignation?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277
    @jamesrbuk: David Davis: I’ve done all my homework in excruciating detail

    Davis: …but, er, the dog ate it

    Davis: Okay it’s more of a summary

    Davis: I have not done my homework and it would have been wrong of me to do the homework
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I have long said the Tories are better off with a Labour minority government under Corbyn that has to deal with the deficit, his economic plans and Brexit than a narrow Tory win a la 1992 next time then a landslide loss a la 1997 after and out of power for a generation.
    Lol! We all knew what you meant but it didn't quite come across like that. :)

    The trouble with your entirely reasonable version is that it presupposes Brexit is not the kind of monumental catastrophe that consigns the Tory Party to 50 years in opposition.

    {Whistles quietly.....}
    What is this monumental catastrophe? 17 million people voted for Brexit, the government is just trying to implement the FTA that ends free movement they eant and Corbyn backs that position too.

    Of course if Brexit is a catastrophe a Corbyn government trying to deal with the consequences and implement socialism will be even more of a catastrophe. Remember no Labour government pre Blair lasted more than 6 years
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,991
    edited December 2017

    How long will La May be able to continue as Prime Minister? Weeks rather than months would be my guess and I don't see her in office beyond 31 March 2018, allowing for a two month election timetable to elect her successor.
    On that basis Betfair's odds of 4.9 on her exit date being in Q1 2018, is equivalent to a 20% chance that she will cease to be PM during this period. This looks on the low side to me, given the Cabinet pressure mounting against her as regards her Brexit stance.

    I agree she gives every impression of not having the remotest idea of how to carry out the job.
    She appears to not trust her colleagues, to keep things tied up within a very small coterie. Delegation is not her strong point and she appears to vacillate when under pressure.

    I think the Country and Tory party would be well served by ditching her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is a rock. Unique amongst her peers, she has the quiet authority to bring people on board, deal elegantly with immediate concerns and the foresight to project a rallying vision for Britain's future.

    The problem for the UK is that even now May is probably the best the Tories have to offer.

    Rudd
    Rudd is May but more pro EU, though MPs may put her in the final 2 with Davis in the event of a leadership contest and May going
    So as I said, Rudd.
    Davis would beat her with the membership even if she gets to the final 2
    No way; he has gone from solid and diligent to ineffective and a patsy.
    Davis would still likely beat any Remainer with the membership though JRM or Boris or Gove would beat Davis.
  • How long will La May be able to continue as Prime Minister? Weeks rather than months would be my guess and I don't see her in office beyond 31 March 2018, allowing for a two month election timetable to elect her successor.
    On that basis Betfair's odds of 4.9 on her exit date being in Q1 2018, is equivalent to a 20% chance that she will cease to be PM during this period. This looks on the low side to me, given the Cabinet pressure mounting against her as regards her Brexit stance.

    But who to replace her, my Respected and Revered Twin Tower?

    I've layed that many potential Tory Leaders that I now stand to win a fortune if it's John Bercow.

    Don't rule it out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,833
    Meanwhile for all those capitalist pigs who dabble in the UK stock market time to offload bigtime. I have just received this advice -in slightly more temperate language- from my stockbroker and I thought I'd pass it on.
  • How long will La May be able to continue as Prime Minister? Weeks rather than months would be my guess and I don't see her in office beyond 31 March 2018, allowing for a two month election timetable to elect her successor.
    On that basis Betfair's odds of 4.9 on her exit date being in Q1 2018, is equivalent to a 20% chance that she will cease to be PM during this period. This looks on the low side to me, given the Cabinet pressure mounting against her as regards her Brexit stance.

    But who to replace her, my Respected and Revered Twin Tower?

    I've layed that many potential Tory Leaders that I now stand to win a fortune if it's John Bercow.

    Don't rule it out.
    If didn't follow my 100/1 and 66/1 tips on Jeremy Hunt, he's still available at 33/1 at SkyBet
  • HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I am beginning to think that Brexit will not happen. There will be last-minute screaming tyres reversal, either through a second referendum or a general election.
    The problem is Nick, if you have driven over a cliff it doesn't matter how hard you hit the brakes on the way down.
  • If anyone is guilty of cynically using Ireland as apolitical football it is the EU.

    This sudden love for Ireland by the EU is entirely at odds with all previous EU behaviour towards it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501

    HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I am beginning to think that Brexit will not happen. There will be last-minute screaming tyres reversal, either through a second referendum or a general election.
    The problem is Nick, if you have driven over a cliff it doesn't matter how hard you hit the brakes on the way down.
    This is actually why cancelling Brexit should be odds on. We need to stop the car before we reach the cliff.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277
    Anyone care to guess what topics might come up at PMQs?
  • Scott_P said:

    Anyone care to guess what topics might come up at PMQs?

    Sheila from Warrington has emailed me to complain about her bin collections?
  • Scott_P said:

    Anyone care to guess what topics might come up at PMQs?

    Sheila from Warrington has emailed me to complain about her bin collections?
    Hahahahha
  • NEW THREAD

  • I remain of the view that we should wait and see what deal is put on the table.

    May's Florence (and previous Lancaster House) speeches acknowledged there would be three categories of UK regulation post Brexit: (1) those where we'd want to maintain alignment (mutual interest - basically shadowing EU); (2) do similar things but in our own way (common goals, I presume w/o dumping, but with a degree of allowance for UK standards), and; (3) areas of divergence (which is the latitude for regulatory innovation over time)

    The question is what and how much falls into each category. I'd expect things like cars/aerospace/energy/infrastructure in (1) and agriculture/security/employment in (2) and greater flexibility on services in (3).

    Now for the hard part.

    I think a lot of the angst on both sides, within the UK and EU is strong emotion overlaying what are usually logically technical common standards, many of which exist also at a global or international level anyway.

    The EU insist on sticking their flag onto everything, and pursuing symbols of statehood (presidents, flags and new EU institutions) which does everything possible to get the British goat up, and rouses all their deepest suspicions. They also continue to pursue further integration of the eurozone, under "ever closer union" in the Lisbon Treaty with an activist ECJ, which constitutes the hard evidence.

    The UK have gone along with it historically for the basic reason (amongst the elites) that such things "don't matter" because it's purely emotional, and amongst a small minority, the traditional nation state is a bit of an annochrism anyway, and the only thing that matters is the level of inside influence the UK has in shaping global affairs.

    But, it does matter. Nation states are fundamentally social and emotional entities made up of real, feeling live human beings. That's how they stick, or don't stick. Same for the UK nationalists. Same for the EU federalists.

    So the UK aligning its own standards and regulations via Westminster that are very similar to the EU's (just with a Union Jack on them rather than an EU flag) on things that'd be very similar anyway whilst, at the same time, putting a permanent end to political integration could go a long way to taking the sting out of the issue. And I think we'd end up having some form of informal influence across the EU and in the WTO in the longer-term anyway, on the former, by virtue of our economic and political weight.

    So I'm open minded. I'll be looking for how much meaningful latitude we are offered under (3) and the precise terms of (1) and (2).

    And I'll be ignoring most political commentators and journalists (who persistently get the detail wrong) and looking at the hard evidence for myself.
  • HYUFD said:

    Car crash Brexit here we come.

    Brace yourselves it will be fun.

    Followed by Jez as PM.

    Jez as PM would then have to deal with car crash Brexit and the mess he makes of the economy which would be great for Tories.

    Though the government still aiming for a FTA
    Is this the Government's Cunning Plan, Hyufd - trash the place and let Labour take the blame?

    Wow.
    I am beginning to think that Brexit will not happen. There will be last-minute screaming tyres reversal, either through a second referendum or a general election.
    You would merely be delaying the inevitable and ensuring that when we do leave it would be more divisive and painful than anything we currently face.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile for all those capitalist pigs who dabble in the UK stock market time to offload bigtime. I have just received this advice -in slightly more temperate language- from my stockbroker and I thought I'd pass it on.

    I wouldn't go quite that far, companies that make most of their earnings overseas are probably a good hedge. Shifting my investments to Europe a year ago has seen a 20% gain.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    The solution to NI border is, and always was, that there will be a customs border but that provisions need to be made for it to be as 'soft' as possible through the provisions the UK government has suggested. There was no other solution.

    Of course there are other solutions: revoke A50 or 32 county Ireland. Both would be ideal.

    The latter would probably result in civil war in NI, so not sure that is an optimal solution.
    The former would probably result in a civil war in the UK. So overall, not terribly helpful overall.
    Bring on a civil war.

    Remainers would win, we’re younger than Leavers. A distinct advantage in wars.
    Nah. You have neither the commitment nor the ruthlessness. Your snowflake generation wouldn't last 30 seconds.
    It's true. Fanatics versus Men of Reason? The MoRs have no chance.
    Remainers are not men of reason. Just cowards.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,266
    edited December 2017

    How long will La May be able to continue as Prime Minister? Weeks rather than months would be my guess and I don't see her in office beyond 31 March 2018, allowing for a two month election timetable to elect her successor.
    On that basis Betfair's odds of 4.9 on her exit date being in Q1 2018, is equivalent to a 20% chance that she will cease to be PM during this period. This looks on the low side to me, given the Cabinet pressure mounting against her as regards her Brexit stance.

    But who to replace her, my Respected and Revered Twin Tower?

    I've layed that many potential Tory Leaders that I now stand to win a fortune if it's John Bercow.

    Don't rule it out.
    PtP - I reckon most probably Gove, but if he and Boris can't agree on him getting the gig (quite likely) then Jeremy Hunt looks like value as a unity candidate.
    But for Christmas intervening, I could see May quitting literally within the next few days, although doubtless she'd continue in office until her successor was elected. She simply has absolutely nowhere, but nowhere to go.
  • May getting a 'dear john' phonecall from Arlene?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,833

    Roger said:

    Meanwhile for all those capitalist pigs who dabble in the UK stock market time to offload bigtime. I have just received this advice -in slightly more temperate language- from my stockbroker and I thought I'd pass it on.

    I wouldn't go quite that far, companies that make most of their earnings overseas are probably a good hedge. Shifting my investments to Europe a year ago has seen a 20% gain.
    Their view is we're between the devil and the deep blue sea. The deep blue sea being Corbyn.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355

    As PB now seems to offer free legal advice, could anyone clarify how the Panda defence works? :

    The requisite mens rea not established, presumably.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    edited December 2017
    .
This discussion has been closed.