politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

The question asked by TNS was “There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country”

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First!

Quincel

I assume this poll asked the VI question first? The strong resistance to independence by elderly voters is essentially fatal to the Yes campaign; these voters turnout the most and are least likely to change their minds.

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

I assume this poll asked the VI question first? The strong resistance to independence by elderly voters is essentially fatal to the Yes campaign; these voters turnout the most and are least likely to change their minds.

I believe so, but the full data tables will tell us in the next few days.

Pulpstar

Ah dunnae naw.

Y0kel

Syria Updates: Shadow Armies and Shadow Supporters

Interesting that the US administration has stated that the first batches of US trained insurgents have entered Syria from Jordan. This would verify my posting on here on the 21st that such units had entered Syria and others were to follow. Interesting too that after a post that there seemed to be a lot of Special Operations assets setting up shop recently that the Sunday Times suggested that British SOF were in play. Unconfirmed. Certainly French in-theatre assets are certainly passing on feeds to chosen opposition forces

It also looks like the the question marks over the scale of US forces deployed for what was apparently some missile strikes didn't quite fit. It appears that Administration thinking is to perhaps go for something more concerted even if short. Where many made the error was to look to the Med, it is South and East of Syria where the most devastating kit is. Its whether it would ever get used that is the question.

It is dawning on Assad's government that they are not in the clear yet. Whenever Assad's officials spread out, the estimate was that some wouldn't bother coming back, taking the opportunity in the disjointed situation to bail out. Some , though no one truly notable, have already in recent days, going to ground. Today though we saw the defection of a senior General today after rumours last night. The problem is the guys name, he could be one of two people. One is a General..the other a General who's an even bigger fish. Which one we'll find out soon.

There is a feeling others will follow. Some intelligence assessments are that the finger pointing in the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack may both indicate and develop into rather more severe strains amongst some of Assad's officials & military men. The US for well over a year has been looking for a coup leadership, whether for physically ousting Assad or simply just breaking off. No evidence that they have it yet but there are stresses.

On the special weapons front there are stories that a suggestion has been floated by one of Assad's external allies to ship his stocks out of the country as a way to short circuit any strike plans. This is as yet unconfirmed and, even if it is, it isn't clear if its going to be taken up.

Andy_JS

Thanks for the continuing reports Y0kel.

Sunil_Prasannan

Yes -5
No -4

Hmmmm... Broken, sleazy Cybernats AND Unionists on the slide?

Y0kel

Andy_JS said:

Thanks for the continuing reports Y0kel.

Appreciated. There is a lot of stuff posted on here recently thats starting to get confirmed, largely by senior US officials, so the sourcing appears solid so far.

fitalass

FPT. Yokel, thanks as ever for your informative updates. I caught the rumours on twitter last night of an interesting defection from the Assad Regime who might be able to cast some light and confirm that they indeed were responsible for the latest use of chemical weapons. While diplomatically there is a growing narrative of the Obama administration being in some disarray, I also get the impression tonight of a contrasting one of a military operation which is far more advanced, organised and specifically targeted on the ground at this moment in time?

As an aside, are the French working far more closely with their American allies than at any time previously in the last twenty years in a hope of finally allaying the previous distrust that had built up in America about France after the events in the nineties in the former Yugoslavia?

Very interesting Newsnight tonight with regard your point about the Americans looking for coup leadership.

Y0kel said:

Syria Updates: Shadow Armies and Shadow Supporters

Interesting that the US administration has stated that the first batches of US trained insurgents have entered Syria from Jordan. This would verify my posting on here on the 21st that such units had entered Syria and others were to follow. Interesting too that after a post that there seemed to be a lot of Special Operations assets setting up shop recently that the Sunday Times suggested that British SOF were in play. Unconfirmed. Certainly French in-theatre assets are certainly passing on feeds to chosen opposition forces

It also looks like the the question marks over the scale of US forces deployed for what was apparently some missile strikes didn't quite fit. It appears that Administration thinking is to perhaps go for something more concerted even if short. Where many made the error was to look to the Med, it is South and East of Syria where the most devastating kit is. Its whether it would ever get used that is the question.

It is dawning on Assad's government that they are not in the clear yet. Whenever Assad's officials spread out, the estimate was that some wouldn't bother coming back, taking the opportunity in the disjointed situation to bail out. Some , though no one truly notable, have already in recent days, going to ground. Today though we saw the defection of a senior General today after rumours last night. The problem is the guys name, he could be one of two people. One is a General..the other a General who's an even bigger fish. Which one we'll find out soon.

There is a feeling others will follow. Some intelligence assessments are that the finger pointing in the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack may both indicate and develop into rather more severe strains amongst some of Assad's officials & military men. The US for well over a year has been looking for a coup leadership, whether for physically ousting Assad or simply just breaking off. No evidence that they have it yet but there are stresses.

On the special weapons front there are stories that a suggestion has been floated by one of Assad's external allies to ship his stocks out of the country as a way to short circuit any strike plans. This is as yet unconfirmed and, even if it is, it isn't clear if its going to be taken up.

Y0kel

I think I first posted about the US coup efforts nearly a year ago or more. They've been at it a while but its hard to say whether its about to hit paydirt, by luck or by judgement.

fitalass said:

FPT. Yokel, thanks as ever for your informative updates. I caught the rumours on twitter last night of an interesting defection from the Assad Regime who might be able to cast some light and confirm that they indeed were responsible for the latest use of chemical weapons. While diplomatically there is a growing narrative of the Obama administration being in some disarray, I also get the impression tonight of a contrasting one of a military operation which is far more advanced, organised and specifically targeted on the ground at this moment in time?

As an aside, are the French working far more closely with their American allies than at any time previously in the last twenty years in a hope of finally allaying the previous distrust that had built up in America about France after the events in the nineties in the former Yugoslavia?

Very interesting Newsnight tonight with regard your point about the Americans looking for coup leadership.

Y0kel said:

Syria Updates: Shadow Armies and Shadow Supporters

Interesting that the US administration has stated that the first batches of US trained insurgents have entered Syria from Jordan. This would verify my posting on here on the 21st that such units had entered Syria and others were to follow. Interesting too that after a post that there seemed to be a lot of Special Operations assets setting up shop recently that the Sunday Times suggested that British SOF were in play. Unconfirmed. Certainly French in-theatre assets are certainly passing on feeds to chosen opposition forces

It also looks like the the question marks over the scale of US forces deployed for what was apparently some missile strikes didn't quite fit. It appears that Administration thinking is to perhaps go for something more concerted even if short. Where many made the error was to look to the Med, it is South and East of Syria where the most devastating kit is. Its whether it would ever get used that is the question.

It is dawning on Assad's government that they are not in the clear yet. Whenever Assad's officials spread out, the estimate was that some wouldn't bother coming back, taking the opportunity in the disjointed situation to bail out. Some , though no one truly notable, have already in recent days, going to ground. Today though we saw the defection of a senior General today after rumours last night. The problem is the guys name, he could be one of two people. One is a General..the other a General who's an even bigger fish. Which one we'll find out soon.

There is a feeling others will follow. Some intelligence assessments are that the finger pointing in the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack may both indicate and develop into rather more severe strains amongst some of Assad's officials & military men. The US for well over a year has been looking for a coup leadership, whether for physically ousting Assad or simply just breaking off. No evidence that they have it yet but there are stresses.

On the special weapons front there are stories that a suggestion has been floated by one of Assad's external allies to ship his stocks out of the country as a way to short circuit any strike plans. This is as yet unconfirmed and, even if it is, it isn't clear if its going to be taken up.

fitalass

This latest poll doesn't surprise me, and despite the usual spin on both sides, there is a fundamental underlying theme developing here. Just remember that old saying, you can pick your friends, but you cannae pick your family. And that is where we are with the Indy Referendum debate. The Union is like your family, its dysfunctional at times and causes huge family rows when one feels its being picked on or another is being favoured over them. But at the end of day, family is family, its that solid secure mechanism whereby you stand up for each other if the going gets tough, and catch each other when you fall. How many folk would just walk away from that to embrace new exciting friends who may or may not produce a better more solid support system? That is what the SNP are up against, hence their retreat into the petty arguments of victimhood or negative campaigning. How many folk would even think you would need to make a positive argument for the importance of family?

If PB is getting a bit tired of this Independence debate, imagine what its like living up here in Scotland. We cannot turn on the Scottish news these days without every issue being turned into a debate about Scottish Independence. Just look at Alex Salmond in particular, this week was a classic example, Salmond advocated that an Independent Scotland would have wanted to intervene in Syria for a cheap headline. And despite his MP's quite clearly voting against any response to the use of chemical weapons by the Assad Regime in Syria at Westminster, the Scottish media cynically grabbed onto this news because it provided a contrast to Westminster's position in the INDEPENDENCE DEBATE! George Osborne was up in the North East of Scotland today causing a bit of a stir in the INDEPENDENCE DEBATE, Alex Salmond then decided to gave an interview to Newsnight Scotland. You can almost predict the SNP response to any high profile Westminster event up here these days.

And I have to laugh out loud when I hear any Scot living in Scotland complaining about not being informed enough on the issue of the Independence debate. They either have their head in the sand and therefore they don't ever watch the news or read a newspaper, or they are reaching for the TV remote and switching over the minute the word Independence rears it head on the television! I think that most people have made up their mind which way they are going to vote on Independence. And more importantly, they are now tuning out or switching off from the Indy debate because they are either bored to tears or don't want to start a row with someone who feels just as strongly in the opposing camp among their family or friends.

Just imagine every single issue that gets you bothered or exercised right now in politics, whether it be the economy, public sector spending, the bedroom tax or your pensions. And then imagine having to hear the whole argument again through the prism of an Independence debate, its fecking sole destroying. Folk are switching off, they have the deadline now for the Independence Referendum, they will switch on again a couple of months before the vote is held and the last minute campaign begins in earnest.

Andy_JS

test

dugarbandier

fitalass said:

I think that most people have made up their mind which way they are going to vote on Independence.

that would suggest the increased "don't know's" in this poll are "shy unioninists" or "shy nationalists"? which could be difficult for polling companies to deal with.

Sadly polling is just not all that reliable (especially when its a one-off like this Independence referendum), and has to include some "add on the number you first thought of" elements to correct for people who say one thing and actually vote for another. this works tolerably well for general elections. I don't think there's any certainty of the outcome for this one. (while deferring of course to those who actually live there...)

Mick_Pork

dugarbandier said:

fitalass said:

I think that most people have made up their mind which way they are going to vote on Independence.

that would suggest the increased "don't know's" in this poll are "shy unioninists" or "shy nationalists"? which could be difficult for polling companies to deal with.

Or more likely that somebody didn't understand the poll before adding their scottish tory comedy anecdote spin to it. Your assumption is predicated on some degree of comprehension of the poll from the poster you were replying to dugarbandier. Your optimism is admirable but sadly misplaced in this case. The idea that the SNP are the ones doing the negative campaigning is right up there with THE SCOTTISH TORY SURGE! for hilarious stupidity and should be treated with just as much seriousness as that was. Nor is the anecdote about everyone having made their minds up any more believable than THE SCOTTISH TORY SURGE!


The fact of the matter is that issues like Syria or the economy have always been reported inside scotland with a degree of attention to what each of the scottish parties were saying. I well understand how that DEBATE would pain a scottish tory but that hardly means we have to believe it is some insidious plot dreamed up in the mind of old biddies in SCON now that the DEBATE is naturally also framed by what it many mean for the independence referendum.

dugarbandier said:

Sadly polling is just not all that reliable (especially when its a one-off like this Independence referendum)

If you want complete replication of results then you certainly aren't gong to get it from a range of pollsters for either a referendum or indeed Westminster VI as we have seen lately.

More to the point the polling for the scottish elections in 2011 was also very different depending on which pollster it was and at what time.

Anyone who thinks it's over at this stage or that everyone has made their minds up right now is talking out of their arse. Simple as that.

edmundintokyo

On topic, IIUC the PanelBase one started with some push questions that favour yes before going into the main question. Committed no voters are harder to push than leaners, so you get less skew for the no column than the yes column.

CarlottaVance

This does rather suggest, as John Curtice did, that the Panelbase poll questions before the independence one had an impact on that result. All by accident, no doubt!

CarlottaVance

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, IIUC the PanelBase one started with some push questions that favour yes before going into the main question. Committed no voters are harder to push than leaners, so you get less skew for the no column than the yes column.

Yes, "Do you believe Scotland can be a successful independent country" (surprisingly low 53% said 'yes") followed by "Who looks after Scotland's interests better, the Scottish govt or Westminster"......

Financier

More than 300,000 attempts were made to access pornographic websites at the Houses of Parliament in the past year, official records suggest.

It is unclear whether MPs, peers or other staff are responsible, House of Commons officials said.

The figures were not all "purposeful requests" and may have been exaggerated by third-party software and websites that reload themselves, they added.

About 5,000 people work on the parliamentary estate.

The data was released following a Freedom of Information request by Huffington Post UK, which published the story under the headline "Oh Yes, Minister!" on its homepage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23954447

Financier

A US-style "work for the dole" scheme could save £3.5bn a year in welfare costs, a campaign group has said.

The Taxpayers' Alliance (TPA) said only the "extreme sanction" of stopping claimants who refused to do 30 hours' activity a week from receiving benefits would force them to find work.

In the absence of such a reform, the government's flagship Universal Credit would have "limited affect", it added.

But opponents of the idea have labelled it "unrealistic" and "demeaning".

The TPA, which campaigns for lower taxes, said individuals claiming the new Universal Credit should have their payments automatically suspended if they declined to take part in prescribed activities.

For most claimants, that would mean 30 hours a week of community service, charity work, approved training, work experience or "meaningful" job hunting with officials.

Parents of under-four-year-olds, those caring for someone with a severe disability, and pensioners would be exempt.

Those claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Allowance would be expected to take part in "activity that they are physically able to do".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23954877

SimonStClare

70% of the over-55s say they are certain to vote: 20% intend to vote YES and 53% intend to vote NO.

This is the killer stat for the YES team.

Financier

YouGov

Currently the daily VI has not been published.

For those requiring their daily poll fix, YouGov has:

The majority of British women still report doing most of the housekeeping – and are less happy about the situation than men

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/09/02/women-still-do-housework/

Despite media commentary about David Cameron's 'humiliating defeat' over Syria, it doesn't appear to have hurt him or his party much domestically

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/09/03/minimal-political-fallout-syria-vote/

edmundintokyo

Financier said:

More than 300,000 attempts were made to access pornographic websites at the Houses of Parliament in the past year, official records suggest.

It is unclear whether MPs, peers or other staff are responsible, House of Commons officials said.

The figures were not all "purposeful requests" and may have been exaggerated by third-party software and websites that reload themselves, they added.

About 5,000 people work on the parliamentary estate.

The data was released following a Freedom of Information request by Huffington Post UK, which published the story under the headline "Oh Yes, Minister!" on its homepage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23954447

The actual scandal here is that somebody had the data to answer that question. In a free society,
MPs should have unfiltered, snooping-free communications. Everyone else should too, but especially MPs.

Financier

Many working Britons have long held the opinion that benefits are too generous and even discourage the unemployed from looking for jobs.

Now it can be revealed that most benefit claimants feel the same way too.

Previously unreported findings show that 62 per cent of Britons think unemployment benefits are ‘too high and discourage work’. Incredibly, 59 per cent of those who said that either they or their spouse were receiving the handouts agreed.

The figures from the 2011 British Social Attitudes Survey suggest that concern about the welfare system rocketed during Labour’s term in office.

The report suggests that 575,000 people could move on to the programme immediately. And it says that the programme would generate net savings of almost £2.5billion a year and see 345,000 people come off welfare in the first year.

The study says that existing sanctions are rarely used and only involve the removal of Jobseekers Allowance for short periods, leaving people with access to housing benefit and other allowances.

‘Although the complete suspension of benefit payments may seem an extreme sanction, the evidence from the United States suggests this is required to make the scheme fully effective,’ the report states.
Former Labour welfare minister Frank Field last night gave his backing to the idea.

‘Labour needs seriously to look again at the idea of work for the dole. The next Labour government must ensure that claimants are not simply left drawing benefit,’ he said.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2410622/Benefits-59-cent-given-handouts-think-discourage-work.html#ixzz2dtoyp200
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Easterross

Morning all and on thread, I am not surprised that the DK share is increasing at the expense of the other two. Most ordinary Scots are already bored rigid by the constant mud slinging by each side at the other.

The Scottish political classes get frothy at the mouth every time Eck farts, Nicola changes her nail varnish or Alistair Darling's eyebrows cause a tremor above 1.5 on the richter scale. Yesterday we saw the elusive Johann frae Pollock for the first time in months with her new hair style, if you can call a bowl round the head a hair style.

However for Scottish voters, all we hear is one side claiming everything will be rosy in an Independent Eckland and the other side claiming the world will almost end. Clearly the truth is somewhere in the middle and as Scots are many things but not entirely stupid, will engage in the debate, if at all, around the 17th September 2014.

dugarbandier

CarlottaVance said:

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, IIUC the PanelBase one started with some push questions that favour yes before going into the main question. Committed no voters are harder to push than leaners, so you get less skew for the no column than the yes column.

Yes, "Do you believe Scotland can be a successful independent country" (surprisingly low 53% said 'yes") followed by "Who looks after Scotland's interests better, the Scottish govt or Westminster"......

according to the spectator:
"
Had they asked the same question as will be posed in the independence referendum itself? (Yes they had, albeit with a preamble about “leaving the United Kingdom” some nationalists consider “loaded”)."

so the Yougov also something fishy about the question...

@edmund, not sure i understand your point about committed no voters vs leaners?

TGOHF

YG 37/33/13

Scott_P

@MSmithsonPB: Just 2% describe EdM as a "natural leader" in today's YouGov - the lowest level ever.
Amongst Lab voters the total was 7%

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Just 2% describe EdM as a "natural leader" in today's YouGov - the lowest level ever.
Amongst Lab voters the total was 7%

I am surprised they found 7% to be honest.

Easterross

For those of you who like to bet and have spare cash, my personal view is that there is still all to play for in the Indy Referendum. For example yesterday George Osborne was visiting Aberdeen for an Energy Conference yesterday. The media coverage by good old BBC Labour (Scotland branch) was totally hostile both in manner of reporting and those rent-a-quotes filmed imposing their personal opinion on the rest of us.

A trip to Argentina would have been more favourably reported.

All because he dared to suggest that if Scotland votes for Independence then understandably England would be erecting border controls at Gretna and Berwick because Scotland would have to join the Schengen Agreement as part of becoming the 29th or 30th member of the EU. He then suggested that such borders might cost Scotland in economic terms because rump-UK would become a foreign country.

There will be many SNP voters who will vote NO but equally there will be many instinctively Unionist voters who will vote YES. More and more of us who are bored with the bickering regularly feel, get it over with, negotiate independence and let the 2 countries go their own way. Anyone who actually watches a London based news programme would or should realise just how little of common interest remains between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Almost every social or political story, other than international ones carried by the London media has no relevance to Scotland, the politicians spouting on said news programmes have no jurisdiction in Scotland and their policies have no application in Scotland. Ironically George Osborne is probably the UK politician with the greatest relevance in Scotland because taxation in Scotland other than municipal taxes (until 2015) remains exclusively under his control.

SquareRoot

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Just 2% describe EdM as a "natural leader" in today's YouGov - the lowest level ever.
Amongst Lab voters the total was 7%

That is probably the fallout from the Syria vote debacle

SouthamObserver

Don't the independence findings merely demonstrate that people are not fully engaged in the debate currently? The referendum question is one that does take a bit of thinking about because it does not outline a consequence. That is what is going to be discussed over the coming year as the vote draws closer.

TGOHF

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Just 2% describe EdM as a "natural leader" in today's YouGov - the lowest level ever.
Amongst Lab voters the total was 7%

That is probably the fallout from the Syria vote debacle

How long until that goes negative ?

[Deleted User]

Of course Scotland will vote to stay in the union. Deep down they know that living standards in a small socialist utopia will plummet. They, and the rest of the UK, are much better off together.

What's much more interesting to me is what the fallout will be. Does this merely set up a Devomax outcome? Will it kill off Barnett? Do we resolve the WLQ and get EV4EL? Those issues will have a potentially big impact on British politics.

Oliver_PB

I'm not really fond of TNS-BMRB's methodology.

Their question:
The SNP are outlining their plans for a possible referendum on Scottish independence in the future.
If such a referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote?

I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingom so that Scotland becomes an independent state.

I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state

Don't know

The questions and answers seem rather convoluted, plus you're arguably priming the respondent by mentioning "The SNP" and "Government of the United Kingdom".

Pollsters should really have switched to using the official question by this point (even though I continue to argue it's been carefully picked by the SNP to favour the nationalists).

And, of course, you then have the unreliability of face-to-face polling on top of that.

That said, it's nowhere near as shamelessly biased as the SNP's Panelbase poll. I trust this poll much more than the Panelbase one.

Plato

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Just 2% describe EdM as a "natural leader" in today's YouGov - the lowest level ever.
Amongst Lab voters the total was 7%

I am surprised they found 7% to be honest.

Steve o Herts @Steve_o_herts
@PlatoSays @MSmithsonPB the 2% probably think he is David Milliband

Oliver_PB

Financier said:

A US-style "work for the dole" scheme could save £3.5bn a year in welfare costs, a campaign group has said.

The Taxpayers' Alliance (TPA) said only the "extreme sanction" of stopping claimants who refused to do 30 hours' activity a week from receiving benefits would force them to find work.

The BBC should really stop writing articles about the Tax Payers Alliance because it just serves to expose their shameless right-wing bias.

[Deleted User]

Oh...and one other thought...what does 'independence' in the context of the referendum question actually mean? Independence from whom? From Westminster? From Brussels? From the Bank of England? What are voters being asked to approve / reject on the subjects of:
1. Currency
2. Defence arrangements
3. EU membership
4. Share of the current UK's national debt
5. Border arrangements / fishing areas / Schengen etc
6. Citizenship - will all Scots become dual nationals with a rumpUK passport too?

There are just alot of very, very fundamental issues that remain unanswered. The Scots are being asked to vote for 'independence' and only then going to find out what that means. Would it not be better to negotiate an agreed interpretation of what the outcome would actually entail and only than ask people to vote for or against?

Plato

Despite media commentary about David Cameron's 'humiliating defeat' over Syria, it doesn't appear to have hurt him or his party much domestically http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/09/03/minimal-political-fallout-syria-vote/

DavidL

@Easterross

There is much in what you say. The fabric of the Union has been more damaged by Devolution than is generally appreciated. Even as a staunch Unionist it annoys me how much of the BBC coverage in Scotland, particularly on the radio, fails to even acknowledge that policies and laws are different in the two jurisdictions.

I also think this interminable "campaign" is increasing the strains. The fact that we still have another year of uncertainty to go is deeply depressing and will, in my view, hurt the Scottish economy at the margins.

The logic of this is that if/when the vote is "no" if we go down the devomax route these dislocations will increase. Eventually this will weaken the Union to the point that an independence, or at least independence lite (as Darling has taken to calling it) vote will be possible. I do not think that will be in 2014 but we are on an unfortunate path.

Plato

LOL

" Research presented to the British Sociological Association found that no matter how intelligent and articulate a job applicant is, if they have a visible tattoo, most would-be employers will secretly rule them out as looking “dirty” and “unsavoury” or even “repugnant”.

Even employers who do not have a personal objection to body art would think twice about taking on someone with a tattoo because they fear it would damage their corporate image.

But the study adds that those stuck with a tattoo from youth could turn it to their advantage – as long as they want to become a prison officer..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10283458/Thugs-and-druggies-what-job-interviewers-think-when-they-see-a-tattoo.html

SimonStClare

@Patrick- ”What does 'independence' in the context of the referendum question actually mean?”

For those that think with their hearts, not their minds, it is ‘Freedom from English tyranny and oppression’ - the rest is just mere detail…!

Scott_P

@rosschawkins: PA: GMB to cut its affiliation funds to Labour from £1.2 million to £150,000

david_kendrick1

An excellent tip to back Warwrinka against Berdych.

Non-political tips are much more valuable than political ones (political betting is under the heading of 'novelty bets' in bookies' argot, and only nominal stakes are laid).

Thanks Morris Dancer.

JackW

PB Diary Date - 9.00am 18th September 2013

Release of the first McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

another_richard

I woke up to hear John Kerry in full self-righteousness mode and thought of this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2401378/Agent-Orange-Vietnamese-children-suffering-effects-herbicide-sprayed-US-Army-40-years-ago.html

John Kerry it should be remembered voted against the UN authorised Kuwait war of 1991.

JackW

@tim

As us toffs would say :

"What exactly is your porpoise on this site ??

Plato

And it begins

Channel 4 News @Channel4News
The GMB is to cut its affiliation funds to Labour from £1.2 million to £150,000 in the wake of the row over party reforms #c4news

Scott_P

Plato said:

And it begins

Channel 4 News @Channel4News
The GMB is to cut its affiliation funds to Labour from £1.2 million to £150,000 in the wake of the row over party reforms #c4news

Remember, this is GREAT news for Ed Miliband. (c) NewsSense™

Plato

Scott_P said:

Plato said:

And it begins

Channel 4 News @Channel4News
The GMB is to cut its affiliation funds to Labour from £1.2 million to £150,000 in the wake of the row over party reforms #c4news

Remember, this is GREAT news for Ed Miliband. (c) NewsSense™

The GMB's GSec was v peed off about it all - so either they've had a vote of members or have made a presumption that based on polling it'd be just over 10% wanting to do it - and have acted accordingly.

TBH, I think that's pretty commendable from a corporate responsibility POV. Shame EdM didn't think this through as he panicked about Falkirk.

another_richard

SeanT said:

The potential downside is now Miliband's. Any more gassed babies on TV and Cameron can say 'Well I tried, but that Labour guy....'

Unless there are gassed babies before the Americans bomb then Miliband's in the clear.

Whereas any more beheaded Christians and Cameron gets asked about why he wants to de facto help the beheaders.

In fact any atrocities, including gassing, which occur after bombing are likely to be pinned on the warmongers for escalating the violence.

Icarus

JackW said:

PB Diary Date - 9.00am 18th September 2013

Release of the first McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

Might be more useful if ARSE turned its attention to the result of a vote with a less predictable outcome - perhaps there is an opening in North Korea?

Plato

Just for EdM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdOCWUgwiWs&feature=youtu.be

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Still over a year to this vote....

Mr. Kendrick, thanks. It was a bit lucky because I thought it was a 50/50 chance, but given the odds (3.15 when I tipped) worth a shot. It got out to 3.65 the last time I checked, so hopefully you were delayed betting and got an extra half stake back.

Annoyed Robredo beat Federer. Considered backing that, and the odds were pretty long. Oh well.

Scott_P

How much better can it get for Ed?

@MarioCreatura: GMB to consider stopping regional campaign support for Labour #bbcr4Today

JackW

Icarus said:

JackW said:

PB Diary Date - 9.00am 18th September 2013

Release of the first McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection.

Might be more useful if ARSE turned its attention to the result of a vote with a less predictable outcome - perhaps there is an opening in North Korea?

Excellent idea.

You are cordially appointed as the ARSE permanent representative in Pyongyang.

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: GMB source on Labour call for unions to campaign to get members to join - "Dream on..its fantasy land."

Morris_Dancer

On Syria: http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/06/02/john-cleese-syria-and-alert-to-threats-in-europe/

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Still over a year to this vote....

Mr. Kendrick, thanks. It was a bit lucky because I thought it was a 50/50 chance, but given the odds (3.15 when I tipped) worth a shot. It got out to 3.65 the last time I checked, so hopefully you were delayed betting and got an extra half stake back.

Annoyed Robredo beat Federer. Considered backing that, and the odds were pretty long. Oh well.

Some interesting men's QF's :

1 Djokovic (Ser) v Youzhny (Rus) 21
3 Murray (GB) v Wawrinka (Swi) 9
8 Gasquet (Fra) v Ferrer (Spa) 4
19 Robredo (Spa) v Nadal (Spa) 2

Djokovic has been coasting but I can't see Youzhny taking more than one set. Murray's slow starts continue and there might be value in Murray in 4 sets.

Gasquet the cavalier against the puritan Ferrer is the latters to lose which leave an all Spanish semi with Nadal taking out his fellow countryman with some ease.

Murray v Nadal final for me - Tasty.

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: GMB source on Labour call for unions to campaign to get members to join - "Dream on..its fantasy land."

Ed the master strategist will sort it out

I see Balls has popped up in the Gran suggesting that 2Qs of growth proves nothing - a hostage to fortune there ?

Plato

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: GMB source on Labour call for unions to campaign to get members to join - "Dream on..its fantasy land."

Ed the master strategist will sort it out

I see Balls has popped up in the Gran suggesting that 2Qs of growth proves nothing - a hostage to fortune there ?

Ed Balls trying to argue wrong sort of growth blah blah just has LABOUR PLAN B written all over it.

Scott_P

TGOHF said:

I see Balls has popped up in the Gran suggesting that 2Qs of growth proves nothing - a hostage to fortune there ?

@DanHannanMEP: Labour's reaction to the growth figures? It wants higher spending, higher borrowing, higher taxes: http://t.co/ZRrwiOvSov

Obviously the growth is too far, too fast...

richardDodd

TGOHF .. But Balls would also say that 2q's of negative growth would be a total disaster..and they wonder why people totally disregard or laugh at them.

Monksfield

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

I woke up to hear John Kerry in full self-righteousness mode and thought of this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2401378/Agent-Orange-Vietnamese-children-suffering-effects-herbicide-sprayed-US-Army-40-years-ago.html

John Kerry it should be remembered voted against the UN authorised Kuwait war of 1991.

I'm gonna blog on this later this week.

Indeed. There are plenty of Kings parading with no clothes at the moment.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, I think you're probably right about that.

No value, that I could see, in today's matches.

richardDodd

tim thinks committing suicide in your cell after being given a sentence of several hundred years is avoiding justice.... is there something in Liverpools water supply

CarlottaVance

Monksfield said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

I woke up to hear John Kerry in full self-righteousness mode and thought of this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2401378/Agent-Orange-Vietnamese-children-suffering-effects-herbicide-sprayed-US-Army-40-years-ago.html

John Kerry it should be remembered voted against the UN authorised Kuwait war of 1991.

I'm gonna blog on this later this week.

Indeed. There are plenty of Kings parading with no clothes at the moment.

Some interesting back ground on France & Syria:


http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/09/02/french-colonial-dreams-linger-as-raison-detre-in-syria/

TheScreamingEagles

TNS did ask the independence question first.

http://www.tnsglobal.com/sites/default/files/whitepaper/TNSBMRB_SOM_2013Sep_DataTables.pdf

Plato

richardDodd said:

a sentence of several hundred years is avoiding justice....

It's a neat way around the death penalty - just depress your convict into hanging themselves.

TheScreamingEagles

@Oliver.

That was their old methodology they've been asking the proper question since the start of the year.

richardDodd

Plato..certainly saves some bucks ..it should be encouraged

TheScreamingEagles

I've been called a Nat on twitter.

I'm not sure who should be more outraged? The Nats or me?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, me*, not I.

TheScreamingEagles

Mr Dancer.

Thou is such a pedant.

Oliver_PB

TheScreamingEagles said:

@Oliver.
That was their old methodology they've been asking the proper question since the start of the year.

Aha. I was looking at last year's poll and missed the year because they haven't updated their website in a year! Ignore me, then.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, it's no bad habit to be correct, whether on grammar or the superiority of Hannibal to the Queen of Bithynia.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it's no bad habit to be correct, whether on grammar or the superiority of Hannibal to the Queen of Bithynia.

In case you missed it last night.

I went to see the film Rush about Hunt and Lauda.

I enjoyed it immensely.

Plus it also stars the lovely Olivia Wilde.

rcs1000

You all heard it here first: the Spanish economy has returned to growth. Quoting the FT this morning "Markit's purchasing managers' index for August registered a reading of 50.4, up from 48.5 in July and the first reading above 50 since July 2011. (A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a sub-50 figure indicates contraction)."

It's still shit to be one of the 25 or 26% of people in the country who are unemployed, but let's be pleased that things are improving there. (It's worth noting that Rajoy modelled the changes to his countries employment laws on Mrs Thatcher's freeing of the UK labour market in the early 1980s.)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, glad you liked it. Olivia Wilde is indeed delightful.

Financier

Plato said:

LOL

" Research presented to the British Sociological Association found that no matter how intelligent and articulate a job applicant is, if they have a visible tattoo, most would-be employers will secretly rule them out as looking “dirty” and “unsavoury” or even “repugnant”.

Even employers who do not have a personal objection to body art would think twice about taking on someone with a tattoo because they fear it would damage their corporate image.

But the study adds that those stuck with a tattoo from youth could turn it to their advantage – as long as they want to become a prison officer..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10283458/Thugs-and-druggies-what-job-interviewers-think-when-they-see-a-tattoo.html

@Plato

Yes, visible tattoos and visible multiple piercings do affect our recruitment policy.

As a company, whilst most of our global business is governed by tenders and contracts, the real driver of the business is our personal contacts with our clients, most of whom are from outside western Europe. So our client-facing people cannot have visible tattoos or visible multiple piercings.

Also for the same reason, we take note of what people wear for interview (e.g. jeans and trainers or showing far to much flesh).

We have found that most people who have many visible tattoos and piercings are either aggressive or insecure and so can be a bit of a rebel. Now we like rebels, as being a company that relies on original thinking and ideas. However, any business cannot be composed of rebels, but we do have a few.

So in the office (as we always go to clients) we do not mind what people wear as long as they do not offend or distract the other staff - but we did have to draw the line this summer when one (very pretty) young lady came in micro-shorts and a small bikini top. Her excuse - she was dressed to maximise her sunbathing on the beach at lunch-time.

Scott_P

Let's review Ed's day so far...

2% think he is a natural leader

His fight with the unions cost him a minimum of £1m

He owns any further atrocity in Syria

Some people might say that was a bit crap, but the PB Kinnocks know better. Ed is strong and decisive, right?

Plato

http://twitter.com/highamnews

Racial profiling by London postcode

Chris Grundy @Grundy_C

Having seen the maps on America's Racial Segregation thought we would try one for London. @wiredmaps pic.twitter.com/veGtGXiS6V

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, glad you liked it. Olivia Wilde is indeed delightful.

She is.

Though the film does feature a prominent UKIPer in it.

BenM

PMQs is back!

Periodic
Miliband
sQuishing
s

foxinsoxuk

I think it wrong to underestimate EdM. He will be better than billed, benefiting from low expectations. He will be next PM, it is the rest of his team that I worry about, varying from nonentities to malignant throwbacks such as Ed Balls.

BenM said:

PMQs is back!

Periodic
Miliband
sQuishing
s

Scott_P

@Kevin_Maguire
One Nation Labour doesn't seem to include a GMB union cutting funding of the party to £150,000 from £1.2m

TCPoliticalBetting

Re: the news on GMB. "I believe that Ed Miliband is the person best placed to deliver for GMB members" GMB Leader in 2010 advice letter to members with their voting slips.

The GMB sent "ballot papers to 700,000 members in an envelope bearing Ed Miliband's face and accompanied by an entreaty from the General Secretary to vote for him. Paul Kenny wrote "That is why GMB is asking you to put him as your top preference on the enclosed ballot paper."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100225111/was-the-labour-leadership-election-rigged-by-the-unions/

Up until 2003, the GMB used to be regarded as a moderate union under John Edmonds although he became a critic of Blair in later years.

TCPoliticalBetting

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

richardDodd

According to Guido,..Rachel,Robot, Reeves has been telling porkies on R4 re Labour funding..surprise surprise

Slackbladder

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

Worst thing about a 'No' vote is the nats having another decade (and more) of moaning about it.

MBoy

tim said:

@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Brits narrowly back war rethink if Syria kills “hundreds” more in new chemical attacks; YouGov poll for Sun. http://t.co/QAHupgICuk

Ruled out in a fit of pique by Cameron after cocking up the vote.
He must be so pleased he listened to Osborne rather than Hague

Ruled out by Miliband unless Al Quadea get hold of chemical weapons.

TOPPING

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

What is the current figure which the Scots want to make it worthwhile to vote Yes? Is it £50? £500?

I know times are hard but must needs...

Plato

richardDodd said:

According to Guido,..Rachel,Robot, Reeves has been telling porkies on R4 re Labour funding..surprise surprise

A £1m is a flesh wound - do keep up :^ )

Scott_P

MBoy said:

Ruled out by Miliband

Quite. Ed stood up and asked a point of order. Many people expected him to call for a resignation or a confidence vote, but the only thing he wanted was to explicitly rule out military action.

Edward Miliband: On a point of order, Mr Speaker. There having been no motion passed by this House tonight, will the Prime Minister confirm to the House that, given the will of the House that has been expressed tonight, he will not use the royal prerogative to order the UK to be part of military action before there has been another vote in the House of Commons?

"another vote in the House of Commons?" that was also negated by voting against the first motion.

TheScreamingEagles

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

Actually.

Last time Osborne got involved in Scotland. There was a 7% movement in favour of remaining in the Union.

Which amused OGH and me.

richardDodd

Plato.. I do try .but the twists and turns from Labour at the moment make it very difficult.

TCPoliticalBetting

richardDodd said:

According to Guido,..Rachel,Robot, Reeves has been telling porkies on R4 re Labour funding..surprise surprise

We need more of the speakyourweight voice in the media. The interview (as usual Sarah) was weak and ill-informed about the impact on Labour's finances. Is Sarah bored with doing research?

TCPoliticalBetting

Slackbladder said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

Worst thing about a 'No' vote is the nats having another decade (and more) of moaning about it.

Shhhh. That is true but let us keep it to ourselves.

TCPoliticalBetting

TOPPING said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

What is the current figure which the Scots want to make it worthwhile to vote Yes? Is it £50? £500?
I know times are hard but must needs...

I think that Eck should be allowed to promise the earth and only Osborne should be allowed to argue with him about it in Scotland.

TCPoliticalBetting

tim said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On topic, this Scottish poll is disappointing for those of us English that are in favour of Scots independence (probably the majority!). Easterross do you have a link to SLAB Mrs Rab C Nesbit's new hairdo? I also agree that Osborne should campaign more in Scotland this side of the referendum.

Osborne in Scotland, I assume that's a Master Strategy, like introducing grey squirrels.

Tim, let us for once agree that it is a brilliant strategy.

Scott_P

Strong. Decisive.

@JohnRentoul: Latest YouGov (Lab lead 4pts - what I said) has EdM drop behind Clegg as "natural leader": 2% to 3% http://t.co/nIc0VznpyJ