F1: topped up a bit on Bottas' each way for the title at 16 (with boost) with Ladbrokes, fifth the odds for top three. Got roughly equal sums on him and Alonso at varying odds (a little at 20, mostly 12), with a small amount on Vandoorne each way at 81.
Seen another bet that's somewhat tempting but plenty of time to consider it.
OK, this will take your minds off Brexit and Southern Sexpests.
Anybody here got an account with Betway? Got any money in it? Well a friend and I did and we made the normal requests. Took him over a month to get it out. Warned accordingly, I tried to withdraw some too and managed it in about a fortnite.
The 'problem' in his case was that he hadn't sent them identification details (copy of passport etc) although they didn't tell him that until he started chasing them up. In my case they said it had been more than six months since I had used my credit card with them. Again, they didn't tell me this until I contacted them. They then ran a lot of silly security checks and made me wait another 48 hours before paying out.
Don't know about you folks, but when any firm starts stalling me on repayment of my own money, I start to think they may have liquidity problems. Could be wrong, but as a precaution I have cleaned the account out now and won't be betting with them again.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
David Davis could have said all that over the last year. He chose not to.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.
Yep.
Which by definition is impossible
Fixing the known unknowns - which is what this is about - is perfectly possible though.
(And while it's impossible to not have any unknown unknowns, it's not impossible to reduce the number: you just have to think harder and more imaginatively).
The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.
Yep.
Which by definition is impossible
Economics is about trying to quantify the unquantifiable (do you receive greater utility from an apple or an orange). Now you may say it is all baloney and you may well be right, but it allows for an estimate of possible outcomes, for the decision-makers to focus their minds on any particular scenario, and for the voters to see what has lead our glorious leaders to come to the conclusions they have come to.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU. The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.
The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.
Yep.
Which by definition is impossible
Fixing the known unknowns - which is what this is about - is perfectly possible though.
(And while it's impossible to not have any unknown unknowns, it's not impossible to reduce the number: you just have to think harder and more imaginatively).
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU. The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.
This is one of those fog in the Channel comments, isn't it?
I am tipster of the year (If you ignore the fact his price went to 10/11 for a while)
Somewhat surprised so many people thought/think he might lose. What, after all, makes his case significantly different from Trump's?
Er, the underage girl.....?
Denied.
Many politicians deny things. Some turn out to be true, some don't. In both cases though, damage is done when enough of the public believe the claim to be credible.
This is precisely why Damian Green has got so worked up about Bob Quick: a proportion of the public will always believe a policeman over a politician.
An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.
The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
National PMI data indicated that the euro area remained a prime growth engine for the global economy in November. Output across the eurozone expanded at the quickest pace in over six-and-a-half years, with accelerations seen across each of the currency union’s ‘big-four’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Rates of expansion also improved in China, Russia and Australia, but slowed in the US, Japan, the UK and India. Brazil was the only major nation to signal a contraction in economic activity, as ongoing weakness in services more than offset a strong growth acceleration at manufacturers.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU. The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.
This is one of those fog in the Channel comments, isn't it?
No, it is an alternate assessment of the point the @SO made by feeding different knowns and unknowns into the model. No fog involved, as the UK is irrelevant in this context.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
It is. But the US is also turning in on itself. The EU will continue to be a hugely prosperous market in which to sell goods and services - and US introspection will provide an opportunity for a greater presence geopolitically.
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
Not with a town clerk like Juncker in charge.
To be a big global player, you have to think like a big global player and you have to be prepared to act like a big global player. When I see the EU deploying a carrier group to the Indian Ocean, I'll believe that it's taking on that role.
So we've learned in the last 24 hours that May is running Brexit policy single handed, that the government has made no sectoral analysis of the different shades of Brexit, and that Davis seems to have lied to parliament (and to us all).
This government is both incompetent and anti-democratic.
The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
National PMI data indicated that the euro area remained a prime growth engine for the global economy in November. Output across the eurozone expanded at the quickest pace in over six-and-a-half years, with accelerations seen across each of the currency union’s ‘big-four’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Rates of expansion also improved in China, Russia and Australia, but slowed in the US, Japan, the UK and India. Brazil was the only major nation to signal a contraction in economic activity, as ongoing weakness in services more than offset a strong growth acceleration at manufacturers.
One swallow does not a summer make. The EU is bouncing back after a decade of no growth.
Someone to convert from Leaver to Remain and change the course of human history.
Barnier/Juncker is Hannibal, having just won a crushing victory at Cannae he fails to move on to Rome thinking his enemy finished.
May is Scipio, whilst everyone thinks she's finished, she's about to launch an incursion into the heart of Carthage and defeat him at the Battle of Zuma.
Juncker = Prince Oberyn, May = The Mountain, for those whose Anc. Hist. is rusty.
Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race
Here's the first Catalonian opinion poll published since the formal campaign period kicked off earlier this week. The independence parties are still headed for a majority.
Mr. Z, hmm. If any PBer doesn't know the basics of the Second Punic War by now, then maybe I should refer to it more.
Incidentally, the EU's being as reasonable as Rome was when it insisted the Ebro was the border then made an ally of Saguntum, well inside Carthaginian territory.
@JamieRoss7: The SNP is going to raise a point of order immediately after PMQs suggesting David Davis is in contempt of parliament. buzzfeed.com/alexspence/dav…
Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race
Prosecuting the KKK might well be unpopular in Alabama.
Here's the first Catalonian opinion poll published since the formal campaign period kicked off earlier this week. The independence parties are still headed for a majority.
That's pretty much in line with all the other polls that have been published - the separatists on or just over a majority of seats, but getting less than 50% of the vote. It will all come down to turnout. All the polls are showing that it will be high. But the higher it goes, the better it will be for the constitutional parties.
Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race
Prosecuting the KKK might well be unpopular in Alabama.
Provided he gets 95% of the black vote Jones could narrowly win with just a third of the white vote given almost a third of the voters will be black
Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.
Read that back to yourself slowly. Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
.
.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.
The problem the EU will always have is political leadership. The Commission has little legitimacy so has to do things by stealth. That means it has to rest with the Franco-German axis which requires two governments to both agree with a stance and leaders in both places to have the political strength to push it through. Those stars align about 20% of the time, which isn't recipe for a global leadership role.
Export markets are important but demand-led growth is a short run game. Long term prosperity depends on what we at home. If we are innovative, efficient and productive, supply will find its own demand. That is how we will have prosperity and that is how we will have the funds to address the coming inequality storm from automation. It's important we don't tie ourselves into EU regulations too much to constrain that, although getting a deal is also important. Regulatory equivalence for GFA matters seems a reasonable compromise, providing that the agricultural standards of CAP don't prevent trade deals elsewhere.
An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.
Yep - he may be a racist paedophile, but he is our racist paedophile. Or something like that!
Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
"Can we have questions from you every week"
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
Imagine you are a centrist Tory in a marginal. What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?
Sit and wait for Brexit to be done, let May take the blame for the necessary compromises, and then put in some serious, competent and young leader to take the fight to Corbyn. Raab, Stewart etc.
So we've learned in the last 24 hours that May is running Brexit policy single handed, that the government has made no sectoral analysis of the different shades of Brexit, and that Davis seems to have lied to parliament (and to us all).
This government is both incompetent and anti-democratic.
It has made sectoral assessments just not forecasts
An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.
Yep - he may be a racist paedophile, but he is our racist paedophile. Or something like that!
Jones is currently getting about the same support black voters in Alabama gave Obama in 2012 but 33% of the white vote compared to Obama's 12%, so still has a chance
What's stupid is that most analysis I have seen for the Customs Union advises the UK to leave, it's having the rules made for us but having no say in them. Literally the worst of all worlds.
I should imagine that's why they haven't revealed one.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first place
I think a lot of the EU vote was about lack of trust in the political class to keep their promises (cf Brown's Lisbon shenanigans)*. I don't think it was a rejection of centrist or soft-left/right politics outright.
Edited extra bit: *specifically on the EU, I mean.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first place
Because they were centrist only on economics, not on social matters or foreign policy.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first place
And it is the major parties tacking to their flanks that is now making the UK virtually ungovernable.
@GuardianAnushka: .@Jacob_Rees_Mogg asks PM to apply some paint to her red lines when she returns to Brussels - saying they were looking a bit pink on Monday
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first place
And it is the major parties tacking to their flanks that is now making the UK virtually ungovernable.
The Leave victory and Corbyn gaining enough seats to force a hung Parliament made that inevitable
So, er, just what the fuck has actually been happening this week? It's now Wednesday and I still don't even understand what the border fudge was *supposed* to be, or why we'd expect it to appease everyone. Let alone the timeline of Monday's bizarre events, or who's to blame for them.
I think a lot of the EU vote was about lack of trust in the political class to keep their promises (cf Brown's Lisbon shenanigans)*. I don't think it was a rejection of centrist or soft-left/right politics outright.
Edited extra bit: *specifically on the EU, I mean.
All tied up with rejection of uncontrolled immigration and further austerity
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first place
Because they were centrist only on economics, not on social matters or foreign policy.
Agreed and even on economics voters were tiring of neoliberalism
F1: just as a further ramble to my Bottas tip, Mercedes has had two drivers in the top 3 every year of the hybrid era, and in the 2017 season Bottas was 100 points exactly ahead of 4th.
That's not guarantee for next year, of course, but for the odds to be 5/1 (4/1 real terms unless he wins the title due to the each way aspect) is too long.
@bbclaurak: Bernard Jenkin third Brexiteer to push PM on whether she’s giving away too much in negotiations
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-ordinated pressure from Brexiteers in this PMQ demanding that there isn’t partial or sectoral post Brexit alignment with the EU, after hints of such on Monday.
@JamieRoss7: Pete Wishart raises his point of order saying David Davis must "surely be in contempt" of parliament.
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
No one at the moment. But if we are no further forward in the negotiations by next Autumn people will start to panic and freezing the process could seem a really good idea.
Hmm. I wonder if he was hoping that Theresa would sack Green, so he could then resign in protest and be off the scene when this impact-assessment thing blew up. DD must be cursing Officer Quick, as it was arguably his intervention that hardened Theresa's resolve to keep Green in place.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.
So, er, just what the fuck has actually been happening this week? It's now Wednesday and I still don't even understand what the border fudge was *supposed* to be, or why we'd expect it to appease everyone. Let alone the timeline of Monday's bizarre events, or who's to blame for them.
In summary, May/Davis and their flunkies offered the Irish too much.
In any normal world he should be, but I can't see how the EU negotiations could survive his loss. It feels to me that if he falls, the Government falls. And neither looks unlikely this lunchtime.
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...
I haven't watched, but I can only imagine how pleased Bercow looked.
In any normal world he should be, but I can't see how the EU negotiations could survive his loss. It feels to me that if he falls, the Government falls. And neither looks unlikely this lunchtime.
Not so sure - just means a new Brexit minister - one the DUP have more faith in would strengthen the govt.
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...
I haven't watched, but I can only imagine how pleased Bercow looked.
Such is my despair at DD, that I'm actually happy to let the poison dwarf have his fun if it brings that lying, incompetent shit down a peg or two.
@bbclaurak: Bernard Jenkin third Brexiteer to push PM on whether she’s giving away too much in negotiations
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-ordinated pressure from Brexiteers in this PMQ demanding that there isn’t partial or sectoral post Brexit alignment with the EU, after hints of such on Monday.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.
Hezza is a bitter, poisonous scumbag and a disgrace to Parliament. His despair when we finally leave will be particularly sweet.
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.
Hezza is a bitter, poisonous scumbag and a disgrace to Parliament. His despair when we finally leave will be particularly sweet.
He could also be kicked out of the Tory Party if he confirms he ever has voted Labour or LD
Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?
No one at the moment. But if we are no further forward in the negotiations by next Autumn people will start to panic and freezing the process could seem a really good idea.
If it happens (and I don't think it likely at present) it would be the Tories that put Brexit out of our misery.
Comments
Seen another bet that's somewhat tempting but plenty of time to consider it.
Anybody here got an account with Betway? Got any money in it? Well a friend and I did and we made the normal requests. Took him over a month to get it out. Warned accordingly, I tried to withdraw some too and managed it in about a fortnite.
The 'problem' in his case was that he hadn't sent them identification details (copy of passport etc) although they didn't tell him that until he started chasing them up. In my case they said it had been more than six months since I had used my credit card with them. Again, they didn't tell me this until I contacted them. They then ran a lot of silly security checks and made me wait another 48 hours before paying out.
Don't know about you folks, but when any firm starts stalling me on repayment of my own money, I start to think they may have liquidity problems. Could be wrong, but as a precaution I have cleaned the account out now and won't be betting with them again.
(And while it's impossible to not have any unknown unknowns, it's not impossible to reduce the number: you just have to think harder and more imaginatively).
The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.
This is precisely why Damian Green has got so worked up about Bob Quick: a proportion of the public will always believe a policeman over a politician.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.
National PMI data indicated that the euro area remained a prime growth engine for the global economy in November. Output across the eurozone expanded at the quickest pace in over six-and-a-half years, with accelerations seen across each of the currency union’s ‘big-four’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Rates of expansion also improved in China, Russia and Australia, but slowed in the US, Japan, the UK and India. Brazil was the only major nation to signal a contraction in economic activity, as ongoing weakness in services more than offset a strong growth acceleration at manufacturers.
No fog involved, as the UK is irrelevant in this context.
To be a big global player, you have to think like a big global player and you have to be prepared to act like a big global player. When I see the EU deploying a carrier group to the Indian Ocean, I'll believe that it's taking on that role.
I'm certain there are party in the Labour Party going through everything he's ever said, word for word, right now....
This government is both incompetent and anti-democratic.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
The top 5 were 1 JRM 2 Gove 3 Boris 4 Davis 5 Raab.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/next-tory-leader-our-survey-rees-mogg-leads-gove-is-second-and-none-of-the-above-still-beats-the-lot.html
The only way a Remainer gets it is through a coronation or MPs putting 2 Remainers to the party membership.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/enquesta-eleccions-catalunya-21d-1_218265_102.html
What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?
Incidentally, the EU's being as reasonable as Rome was when it insisted the Ebro was the border then made an ally of Saguntum, well inside Carthaginian territory.
Export markets are important but demand-led growth is a short run game. Long term prosperity depends on what we at home. If we are innovative, efficient and productive, supply will find its own demand. That is how we will have prosperity and that is how we will have the funds to address the coming inequality storm from automation. It's important we don't tie ourselves into EU regulations too much to constrain that, although getting a deal is also important. Regulatory equivalence for GFA matters seems a reasonable compromise, providing that the agricultural standards of CAP don't prevent trade deals elsewhere.
I think a lot of the EU vote was about lack of trust in the political class to keep their promises (cf Brown's Lisbon shenanigans)*. I don't think it was a rejection of centrist or soft-left/right politics outright.
Edited extra bit: *specifically on the EU, I mean.
You are no longer permitted to talk about the Damian Green story nor about the police officers involved.
Your comments could get OGH into trouble.
That's not guarantee for next year, of course, but for the odds to be 5/1 (4/1 real terms unless he wins the title due to the each way aspect) is too long.
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-ordinated pressure from Brexiteers in this PMQ demanding that there isn’t partial or sectoral post Brexit alignment with the EU, after hints of such on Monday.
Then, probably, the leaver wins.
Isn't there a commandment about that?
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.
Tory members have had enough of petty games
Thankfully sanity has prevailed.
Have I got this right? There never were any impact statements. DD made them up?
This has got beyond funny now. This is turning into the novel that Kafka failed to write because it was too weird.
It only makes sense that they were done, the results were so dire for UK economy, that they were 'undone'.