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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Brexit impact papers don’t exist what were the redacted

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  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour don't get away without criticism for having no clear strategy or direction on Brexit, but it is much more serious that the Tories appear to still have no bloody clue either.

    Labour' tactic is to be polite about Brexit but not as wedded to it as the Tories. .
    With respect that seems a generous interpretation of some quite contradictory statements from senior people. It seems much more probable they are simply trying to be all things to all people.

    However, as noted that is small fry to the government still being unable to agree a position.
    I see May has now contradicted Hammond on whether we'd meet our financial obligations if we did not in other ways have a deal.

    We're losing count of the splits, any one of which would normally lead to a resignation. Are there in fact any two members of the Cabinet who have consistently agreed with each other?
    Apparently not. I am not, as you know, enamoured of Corbyn's Labour. But I am beginning to hate the Tories for being so utterly utterly shite at everything.

    Brexit is difficult but there was a better way of going about it than the one they've seemingly chosen. Trashing their own brand is one thing. But trashing Britain is unforgivable. And, yet, that is where we are heading.

    I can understand going through some pain to get to a better destination. But going through pain because you're doing everything wrong and without a destination in mind other than some vague "the rainbow over there" is beyond stupid.

    I am not a particular fan of the EU. I think there are some very serious issues with its approach and destination. I have serious doubts about how good a fit Britain and the EU are. I think the EU should have behaved differently both during Cameron's negotiation and after the referendum result. There have been so many missed opportunities in the last few years that it is painful to think of them all.

    But once the decision to leave was made, we needed to do it in a sensible, sober and well-thought out way, seeking to mitigate the losses and put us in the best possible position to gain from any upsides. Instead we're doing the opposite. We look stupid, unprepared, frivolous, small-minded and inept. I do not imagine that those who are observing us - whether it is other states, companies, investors or people - will forget this in a hurry.

    Reputations take years to build up. And barely minutes to destroy it. Perhaps I'm feeling unnecessarily gloomy tonight. But the Tories are destroying Britain's reputation. They are behaving self-indulgently and disgracefully. All very well attacking Corbyn for his love for our enemies. But there is more than one way of being unpatriotic.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought Cameron ran a crap Government, but this lot are beyond disastrous. Even Gordon Brown would have done a lot better.

    Bring on Corbyn, this won’t be worse, and might even be better.

    It is hard to imagine how Labour could do a worse job of Brexit than the Tories. Neither party has a position, of course, but Starmer v Davis is a no contest.

    This the same clueless Starmer who wants to stay in the single market while his boss is still committed to leaving it?

    As I said, neither Labour nor the Tories have a Brexit strategy or agreed destination. But unlike Davis, Starmer is prepared to do the hard yards and is not seeking to wing his way through.
    Prepared. Ha Ha Ha Ha. Starmer cannot even get out of bed in the morning without changing Labour's line on Brexit

    The May and Davis line is clear, a FTA that ends free movement

    Today we learned that the government has yet to work out what it wants. They have not yet discussed it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement, just as the LDs want to stay permanently in the single market, it is Labour who are utterly clueless as to what they want

    Labour is not in power. The Tories are. They do not know what they want from an FTA and they have no idea how Brexit will affect the UK economy because they haven’t bothered to look into it.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteenth time I voted Remain (unlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    And you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would say the same thing.
    So they would be inaccurate then yes, so pointless to do them
    The point is that you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would have said the same thing as the ones produced pre-vote.

    As to their accuracy, Davis's would have been made now or very recently so no one can know how accurate they would or wouldn't have turned out to be.
    The ones produced pre vote which were wrong yes, as any new ones largely written by the same people would also be wrong
    You're having a shocker tonight, HYUFD.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour don't get away without criticism for having no clear strategy or direction on Brexit, but it is much more serious that the Tories appear to still have no bloody clue either.

    Labour' tactic is to be polite about Brexit but not as wedded to it as the Tories. .
    With respect that seems a generous interpretation of some quite contradictory statements from senior people. It seems much more probable they are simply trying to be all things to all people.

    However, as noted that is small fry to the government still being unable to agree a position.
    I see May has now contradicted Hammond on whether we'd meet our financial obligations if we did not in other ways have a deal.

    We're losing count of the splits, any one of which would normally lead to a resignation. Are there in fact any two members of the Cabinet who have consistently agreed with each other?
    Apparently not. I am not, as you know, enamoured of Corbyn's Labour. But I am beginning to hate the Tories for being so utterly utterly shite at everything.

    Brexit is difficult but there was a better way of going about it than the one they've seemingly chosen. Trashing their own brand is one thing. But trashing Britain is unforgivable. And, yet, that is where we are heading.

    I can understand going through some pain to get to a better destination. But going through pain because you're doing everything wrong and without a destination in mind other than some vague "the rainbow over there" is beyond stupid.

    I am not a particular fan of the EU. I think there are some very serious issues with its approach and destination. I have serious doubts about how good a fit Britain and the EU are. I think the EU should have behaved differently both during Cameron's negotiation and after the referendum result. There have been so many missed opportunities in the last few years that it is painful to think of them all.

    But once the decision to leave was made, we needed to do it in a sensible, sober and well-thought out way, seeking to mitigate the losses and put us in All very well attacking Corbyn for his love for our enemies. But there is more than one way of being unpatriotic.
    There are only 2 other alternatives to the FTA that ends free movement proposed by the Tories.

    First, staying in the single market which means free movement continuing which means betrayal of one of the 2 key reasons for the Leave vote.

    Second, straight to WTO rules which risks economic damage to both goods and services industries.

    So wrong.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteenth time I voted Remain (unlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    The sins of the son should not be visited upon the father.

    Anyway, Junior has buggered off to California now, which is wise. Probably wouldn't be safe for him to be seen on the streets of Hampstead any more.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteenth time I voted Remain (unlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    And you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would say the same thing.
    So they would be inaccurate then yes, so pointless to do them
    The point is that you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would have said the same thing as the ones produced pre-vote.

    As to their accuracy, Davis's would have been made now or very recently so no one can know how accurate they would or wouldn't have turned out to be.
    The ones produced pre vote which were wrong yes, as any new ones largely written by the same people would also be wrong
    You're having a shocker tonight, HYUFD.
    No, I am just refusing to kowtow to diehard Remainer whinging.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought Cameron ran a crap Government, but this lot are beyond disastrous. Even Gordon Brown would have done a lot better.

    Bring on Corbyn, this won’t be worse, and might even be better.

    It is hard to imagine how Labour could do a worse job of Brexit than the Tories. Neither party has a position, of course, but Starmer v Davis is a no contest.

    This the same clueless Starmer who wants to stay in the single market while his boss is still committed to leaving it?

    As I said, neither Labour nor the Tories have a Brexit strategy or agreed destination. But unlike Davis, Starmer is prepared to do the hard yards and is not seeking to wing his way through.
    Prepared. Ha Ha Ha Ha. Starmer cannot even get out of bed in the morning without changing Labour's line on Brexit

    The May and Davis line is clear, a FTA that ends free movement

    Today we learned that the government has yet to work out what it wants. They have not yet discussed it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement, just as the LDs want to stay permanently in the single market, it is Labour who are utterly clueless as to what they want

    Labour is not in power. The Tories are. They do not know what they want from an FTA and they have no idea how Brexit will affect the UK economy because they haven’t bothered to look into it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement.

    The economic consequences are obvious of all 3 choices to implement the Leave the EU vote

    Best single market (but impossible because of free movement)
    Second best FTA
    Worst WTO terms
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Yep. Some people talk about armagedon as if it is a bad thing :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteenth time I voted Remain (unlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    The sins of the son should not be visited upon the father.

    Anyway, Junior has buggered off to California now, which is wise. Probably wouldn't be safe for him to be seen on the streets of Hampstead any more.
    I am not blaming OGH but making the point his phrase 'my lot' implying the Leave campaign would be better directed at his son than me. I expect RCS may have some awkward dinner parties in San Francisco or Beverley Hills too if he ever mentions he was a Brexiteer, especially as Trump backed Brexit and California loathes Trump.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    edited December 2017
    Two more Govt wins in the last hour - just voted 287 - 312 against clause which would require financial settlement to be approved by Parliament.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteentunlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    And you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would say the same thing.
    So they would be inaccurate then yes, so pointless to do them
    The point is that you have accepted that Davis's forecasts would have said the same thing as the ones produced pre-vote.

    As to their accuracy, Davis's would have been made now or very recently so no one can know how accurate they would or wouldn't have turned out to be.
    The ones produced pre vote which were wrong yes, as any new ones largely written by the same people would also be wrong
    You're having a shocker tonight, HYUFD.
    No, I am just refusing to kowtow to diehard Remainer whinging.
    It's not Remainer whinging. It is happiness that you have realised that any forecasts produced now would be of doom.

    You said, of Davis: "So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?"

    ie you appreciated that any forecasts produced would be of doom. You didn't say: "he should resign for not publishing forecasts" or "he should resign for not publishing forecasts of sunlit uplands". You said; "So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?"

    Which shows that you accepted that any forecasts produced would be of doom.

    Now, HYUFD, you are a prolific poster, and get a hard time from several people on here, including me, for very good reasons. But please know that I do respect and salute your indefatigability.
  • Options
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,627
    edited December 2017
    MikeL said:

    Two more Govt wins in the last hour - just voted 287 - 312 against clause which would require financial settlement to be approved by Parliament.

    You keep posting this nonsense- don’t you know this is the worst government in living memory?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Never forget that a significant fraction of the American legislature are part of an apocalyptic death cult that are actively looking to bring about the end of the world.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought Cameron ran a crap Government, but this lot are beyond disastrous. Even Gordon Brown would have done a lot better.

    Bring on Corbyn, this won’t be worse, and might even be better.

    It is hard to imagine how Labour could do a worse job of Brexit than the Tories. Neither party has a position, of course, but Starmer v Davis is a no contest.

    This the same clueless Starmer who wants to stay in the single market while his boss is still committed to leaving it?

    As I said, neither Labour nor the Tories have a Brexit strategy or agreed destination. But unlike Davis, Starmer is prepared to do the hard yards and is not seeking to wing his way through.
    Prepared. Ha Ha Ha Ha. Starmer cannot even get out of bed in the morning without changing Labour's line on Brexit

    The May and Davis line is clear, a FTA that ends free movement

    Today we learned that the government has yet to work out what it wants. They have not yet discussed it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement, just as the LDs want to stay permanently in the single market, it is Labour who are utterly clueless as to what they want

    Labour is not in power. The Tories are. They do not know what they want from an FTA and they have no idea how Brexit will affect the UK economy because they haven’t bothered to look into it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement.

    The economic consequences are obvious of all 3 choices to implement the Leave the EU vote

    Best single market (but impossible because of free movement)
    Second best FTA
    Worst WTO terms

    Ending free movement is an entirely meaningless phrase as it covers a vast array of scenarios. The government has not yet decided what it wants. If the economic consequences of a deal which the government has no idea about are obvious, let us know what they are.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    Was there ever a bigger arse to hold government office than Davis? I know that the bar is set extremely high with IDS but if Davis had any decency he would apologize for his complete incompetence and resign.

    So he should resign for not publishing hypothetical forecasts of Brexit doom?
    At last we're getting somewhere: you realise that the forecasts would be of doom.
    Just as the Remain campaigns pre Brexit forecasts were of course
    This is tedious crap which you just repeat endlessly. Your lot won the referendum and they are the ones to be judged by their statements.

    Until £350m a week is being put into the NHS then please keep quiet.
    For the record for the umpteenth time I voted Remain (unlike your son) and I am certainly the last person to defend Cuummings absurd position on NHS funding. However the Remain campaign forecast dire economic disaster almost from the result which clearly has not come to fruition
    The sins of the son should not be visited upon the father.

    Anyway, Junior has buggered off to California now, which is wise. Probably wouldn't be safe for him to be seen on the streets of Hampstead any more.
    I am not blaming OGH but making the point his phrase 'my lot' implying the Leave campaign would be better directed at his son than me. I expect RCS may have some awkward dinner parties in San Francisco or Beverley Hills too if he ever mentions he was a Brexiteer, especially as Trump backed Brexit and California loathes Trump.
    Oof, Touché
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283

    MikeL said:

    Two more Govt wins in the last hour - just voted 287 - 312 against clause which would require financial settlement to be approved by Parliament.

    You keep posting this nonsense- don’t you know this is the worst government in living mem?
    It is the worst government in living memory. Apart from the government in waiting.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,554
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour don't get away without criticism for having no clear strategy or direction on Brexit, but it is much more serious that the Tories appear to still have no bloody clue either.

    Labour' tactic is to be polite about Brexit but not as wedded to it as the Tories. .
    With respect that seems a generous interpretation of some quite contradictory statements from senior people. It seems much more probable they are simply trying to be all things to all people.

    However, as noted that is small fry to the government still being unable to agree a position.
    I see May has now contradicted Hammond on whether we'd meet our financial obligations if we did not in other ways have a deal.

    We're losing count of the splits, any one of which would normally lead to a resignation. Are there in fact any two members of the Cabinet who have consistently agreed with each other?
    Apparently not. I am not, as you know, enamoured of Corbyn's Labour. But I am beginning to hate the Tories for being so utterly utterly shite at everything.

    ...

    I can understand going through some pain to get to a better destination. But going through pain because you're doing everything wrong and without a destination in mind other than some vague "the rainbow over there" is beyond stupid.

    I am not a particular fan of the EU. I think there are some very serious issues with its approach and destination. I have serious doubts about how good a fit Britain and the EU are. I think the EU should have behaved differently both during Cameron's negotiation and after the referendum result. There have been so many missed opportunities in the last few years that it is painful to think of them all.

    But once the decision to leave was made, we needed to do it in a sensible, sober and well-thought out way, seeking to mitigate the losses and put us in the best possible position to gain from any upsides. Instead we're doing the opposite. We look stupid, unprepared, frivolous, small-minded and inept. I do not imagine that those who are observing us - whether it is other states, companies, investors or people - will forget this in a hurry.

    Reputations take years to build up. And barely minutes to destroy it. Perhaps I'm feeling unnecessarily gloomy tonight. But the Tories are destroying Britain's reputation. They are behaving self-indulgently and disgracefully. All very well attacking Corbyn for his love for our enemies. But there is more than one way of being unpatriotic.
    "What oft was thought, but ne'er so well expressed..."
    And Pope never even met you, Cyclefree.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TOPPING said:

    MikeL said:

    Two more Govt wins in the last hour - just voted 287 - 312 against clause which would require financial settlement to be approved by Parliament.

    You keep posting this nonsense- don’t you know this is the worst government in living mem?
    It is the worst government in living memory. Apart from the government in waiting.
    Nah. Jezza will be fine.

  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    MikeL said:

    Two more Govt wins in the last hour - just voted 287 - 312 against clause which would require financial settlement to be approved by Parliament.

    You keep posting this nonsense- don’t you know this is the worst government in living mem?
    It is the worst government in living memory. Apart from the government in waiting.
    Nah. Jezza will be fine.

    Looks like George Galloway is about to be let back into Labour. It’s turning into a party that actively embraces Jew baiters. As such, it is unfit to be in power.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,554
    Lightening the tone a bit, this one is for Morris Dancer:
    https://medium.com/@ethanarsht/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb

    I'm not entirely convinced, as it really doesn't seem to account for the ability to avoid battles, which is essential in a good general.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought Cameron ran a crap Government, but this lot are beyond disastrous. Even Gordon Brown would have done a lot better.

    Bring on Corbyn, this won’t be worse, and might even be better.

    It is hard to imagine how Labour could do a worse job of Brexit than the Tories. Neither party has a position, of course, but Starmer v Davis is a no contest.

    This the same clueless Starmer who wants to stay in the single market while his boss is still committed to leaving it?

    As I said, neither Labour nor the Tories have a Brexit strategy or agreed destination. But unlike Davis, Starmer is prepared to do the hard yards and is not seeking to wing his way through.
    Prepared. Ha Ha Ha Ha. Starmer cannot even get out of bed in the morning without changing Labour's line on Brexit

    The May and Davis line is clear, a FTA that ends free movement

    Today we learned that the government has yet to work out what it wants. They have not yet discussed it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement, just as the LDs want to stay permanently in the single market, it is Labour who are utterly clueless as to what they want

    Labour is not in power. The Tories are. They do not know what they want from an FTA and they have no idea how Brexit will affect the UK economy because they haven’t bothered to look into it.

    They want a FTA that ends free movement.

    The economic consequences are obvious of all 3 choices to implement the Leave the EU vote

    Best single market (but impossible because of free movement)
    Second best FTA
    Worst WTO terms

    Ending free movement is an entirely meaningless phrase as it covers a vast array of scenarios. The government has not yet decided what it wants. If the economic consequences of a deal which the government has no idea about are obvious, let us know what they are.

    Possible way out:

    http://leavetheeuropeanunion.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/european-free-trade-association-efta.html

    Liechtenstein, in the EEA has little/no freedom of movement.

    One consequence of staying in the EEA is that we'd all probably save about 30 mins. on every trip through passport control. Cost of that to the UK economy???
  • Options
    The reshuffle and Mrs May’s plans to anoint Gavin Williamson has pissed off a lot of people
This discussion has been closed.