@TheWhiteRabbit I'd also consider the parallel universe where Juncker, Schulz, et al. said much more of this bile before 23/06/16. It wouldn't have been a 52-48 result then!
This is why, despite the current chaos I remain a 'leaver'. We cannot be part of the US of E, which is where the EU is heading.
If there was a way to be outside the polictial and economic integration, then beyond that, I don't really care what happens, get the best deal economic-wise, but have those red-lines.
On topic: It will all look very different if, as seems extremely likely, a deal is done in the 24 hours or so, and we are allowed at last to begin the actual negotiations which the EU should have started a year ago.
There will of course be a deal -and soon. The government wants one. The EU superstate would be deeply damaged without one -for a start it would lose its 50 billion ransom. The DUP want one -the last thing they want is a Sinn Feiner in Downing Street. The Irish government want one -its own trade with the UK is essential to its well being.
""Wir wollen die Vereinigten Staaten von Europa. Nous voulons les États-Unis d'Europe. We want the United States of Europe."
Can you imagine some alternate universe where Britain voted 52-48 to Remain and Schulz said that??????"
Yes, because Dave's one real concession he got from the EU was that we would be expressly exempt from ever closer union aims. We would in fact have had a soft Brexit in all but name, on trading terms a million times better than we can now even dream about.
BTW you missed out the best bit - Schulz doesn't just want a USE, he wants it by 2025.
The single best argument for leaving the EU was the lack of a status quo position.
Shultz, Junker and the rest want to be a single European country - complete with military and treasury - as soon as possible, and the UK decided we didn't want to be a part of that.
＠Penddu You paid $5000 for a skinless beanie baby without the stuffing??? I suggest you reinvest that money responsibly in stable feline crypto-assets as soon as possible.
Slackbadder If Remain had won by 60%+ I think pressure for the UK to join the Euro and Schengen would have been strong, had it been 52 to 48% Remain the status quo would likely have remained the default though Leavers would still have pushed for a second referendum
I assume all you Leavers will be happy to have a second referendum that ties Euro membership to the Remain option, with Theresa's Brexit Deal as the other alternative?
Slackbadder Ultimately I think the EU will be based on the Eurozone and original EEC members, if the push is for a united Europe and all EU members to join the Euro I would not be surprised to see Denmark, Sweden and Poland and the Czech Republic leave the EU too in due course and EFTA to emerge as a bigger player in European affairs
Hello all. My first post I think since around July, it's all been a bit too depressing to contemplate posting much since then...
Whilst trying and failing to find something I posted some time ago, I found the following which I posted just before the Referendum. If only Dave had followed my advice, how differently the last 18 months might have turned out, and how differently the current horrid mess might look!
>>>"If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think [Cameron] could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case)."<<<
But of course, as it turned out, Cameron was not so far off as hopeless at governing as May is proving to be.....
I assume all you Leavers will be happy to have a second referendum that ties Euro membership to the Remain option, with Theresa's Brexit Deal as the other alternative?
I can't believe full membership of the USE would beat whatever deal we're going to get for leaving in a second referendum.
There's never been a status quo, only an unrelenting march towards a superstate. Each treaty has given the central EU bureaucracy more power and less accountability than the previous one.
Witness recent comments from Shultz and Junker about an EU army and an EU treasury raising EU taxes.
I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments.
Logical song If concessions had been made to the UK on FOM then Remain would probably have narrowly won and thecstate quo for the UK remained the default
Actually accountability within the EU has been slowly improving; the Parliament has a lot more influence now than it did originally, and there is pressure within Europe for further reform. Of course it remains flawed, and there is much more to be done, but then UK democracy is also flawed and in need of reform.
I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments.
I had some teething problems, but I seem to be on top of it now.
"On balance, EU citizens contribute more than they benefit from the UK tax and social security system. In short, free movement of people is one of the four essential freedoms. These four freedoms are indivisible"
Welcome back. It is indeed unfortunate that we do not have the skills and knowledge of both Cameron and Osborne to guide us through this. Their replacements have been less than optimal in a number of respects.
Nevertheless, I think even the EU is very slowly getting the message that we mean this and just making it difficult will not change our minds. Once we get over that hurdle, and it is a high one for single State zealots, the need for a deal that works for both parties going forward is overwhelming. We are just about there.
If freedom of movement is your problem now, you will have exactly the same problem with a future association agreement because the four freedoms will always constitute the intersection of the EU’s growing number of concentric circles.
It lights up but nothing happens. Its a bit frustrating when you are catching up with the thread and there are comments you would want to respond to but the world is undoubtedly going to end because of Brexit before the quote button has that effect. After all, so many experts could not possibly be wrong.
"I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments."
I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments.
@kyf_100 for every forecast of untold wealth there is one of gloom and doom. I think I will just flip a coin.... I assume with a crypto coin it is a choice between 1 and 0 ....
@DavidL - thank you. I am sure a deal will be done next week, and a deal thereafter on stages 2 and 3. Unfortunately, the EU has shown itself unwilling to compromise on anything yet (save perchance Juncker's ridiculous €100bn initial demand), whereas the UK has conceded variously, and will no doubt continue to do so given we have a weak government trying to do the impossible of pleasing all sides.
We will end up with fudges, unacceptable compromises and concessions, and I am sure we will all get to the end of this thinking "has anything really changed" and "was it all really worth all this cost, effort and hassle"? We will have left the EU but remained in all but name. It was for that reason, mainly, that I decided with reluctance to vote Remain. I think I expressed this fear ad nauseum prior to 24 June 2016, and I am being proved right...
I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments.
Sage words Mr Sykes, however Mr Cameron was absolutely correct to fall on his sword, because he has some political acumen. Mrs May has none.
Mrs May has subsequently read every situation badly. How did she not realise falling headlong into Brexit without a plan was a good idea? Why did she appoint scoundrels and incompetent chancers into key jobs? She triggered A50 on a whim linked to party expediency. Is she so thick-skinned that she could not judge that a deal with Arlene Foster was a really bad idea on so many levels, particularly considering the fragility of the sectarian ceasefire in NI?
The woman has only herself to blame, she is hopeless! Her only saving grace is Corbyn is infinitesimally worse.
"Under Schulz proposal, EU member states that do not adopt this federal constitution would automatically leave the EU."
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!
Eurosceptics have been saying this for years.
Some Remainers have a tin-ear for this as they prefer to pursue a culture war with Leavers. But we're all Britons and many of our favourite pb Remainers were considering Leave on the existing EU prospectus less than 2 years ago.
It seems that, for some Conservatives, their desire for "sovereignty" only applies when that "sovereignty" is used in ways they approve of:
Those who want to stay close to the EU for fear of something worse have another argument up their sleeve too: Jeremy Corbyn. As the prospect of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister becomes ever more real, the idea of signing a deal that restricts the UK’s freedom of action becomes more appealing to those on the centre-right. The early Thatcher-era argument that Europe is a bulwark against Bennism (which led many Conservatives to oppose Brexit in the 1975 referendum) is making a comeback.
@Slackbladder More, I'd imagine, since that's what the member states are likely to want. But there are already lots of opt-outs in operation for countries that don't want to join things, I don't see why they'd suddenly stop having them now.
If the thought is that Britain will end up voluntarily integrating itself more with the rest of the EU because it wants to, it's not clear that this is a good argument for the inevitability of Brexit.
The bottom line on most of these crises, from the surprise launch of the dementia tax through to the various trials of the Brexit talks, is that our PM appears incapable of doing the basic politicky stuff of getting people on board before she sets off on one of her hikes.
@edmundintokyo - "If the thought is that Britain will end up voluntarily integrating itself more with the rest of the EU because it wants to, it's not clear that this is a good argument for the inevitability of Brexit."
The real 'hostile foreign power' many Leavers seem to be afraid of is Whitehall. They think Brexit is a way of drawing a line in the sand and constraining their schemes.
The single best argument for leaving the EU was the lack of a status quo position.
Given that there was indeed a status quo position, made more emphatic by it being made clear and explicit that the UK would not follow ever-closer union, it's a bit strange that you (and some others) are vehemently trying to claim otherwise.
This would be German election loser Martin Schultz?
Schulz is the kingmaker in the next German coalition and ex president of the Euro parliament.
He may fulfill the Nick Clegg role, but under his watch the SPD barely scraped 20% in the last German Federal Elections. Put in context, that's less than the LibDems got in 2005 or 2010, and I don't remember people saying that Charles Kennedy was the voice of the British government.
Rottenborough Though you still have to sell your home to pay for care home costs even with the dementia tax scrapped, albeit the amount you can keep in assets before the local authority steps in to pay may still rise from £23k to £100k if the Tories ever follow through their manifesto commitment on that
Vanilla has emailed me back: "Thanks for the report. I believe the developers are aware of this issue and investigating this morning. We should have this resolved soon, I'll update you as soon as I know more!"
"Under Schulz proposal, EU member states that do not adopt this federal constitution would automatically leave the EU."
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!
Eurosceptics have been saying this for years.
Some Remainers have a tin-ear for this as they prefer to pursue a culture war with Leavers. But we're all Britons and many of our favourite pb Remainers were considering Leave on the existing EU prospectus less than 2 years ago.
Do they really want this?
Would there really have been a realistic prospect of this happening had we voted to remain ? I'm not overwhelmingly convinced.
One of the reasons our hitherto allies in Europe are a bit cross with us is that we seem to have abandoned them to their fate.
Is Schulz proposing an exit fee for those to be expelled... ?
Vanilla has emailed me back: "Thanks for the report. I believe the developers are aware of this issue and investigating this morning. We should have this resolved soon, I'll update you as soon as I know more!"
It's pretty common when someone's been dumped for them to embark on an ill-advised rebound.
The choice last year was between a xenophobic Brexit and Remaining in a deeply flawed but ultimately well-meaning EU. The xenophobic Brexit continues to unravel.
"Vanilla has emailed me back: "Thanks for the report. I believe the developers are aware of this issue and investigating this morning. We should have this resolved soon, I'll update you as soon as I know more!"
TSE "The damning report said it is "difficult, if not impossible, to envisage a worse outcome for the UK" than a no-deal scenario."
The flip of that is it is "difficult, if not impossible, to envisage a worse outcome for the EU" than a no-deal scenario. Fifty billion Euros light, and showing the world that their alliance of 27 states is impossible to negotiate with on a reasonable basis, even when it is in their interests to do so.
Sandpit @ 12:11 The single best argument for leaving the EU was the lack of a status quo position. Given that there was indeed a status quo position, made more emphatic by it being made clear and explicit that the UK would not follow ever-closer union, it's a bit strange that you (and some others) are vehemently trying to claim otherwise.
Are you trying to convince yourself? Or others?
What Cameron came back with was a vague, not legally enforceable statement that 'ever-closer union' would not apply to Britain. Nothing setting out which new EU laws wouldn't apply to us, or which existing ones we'd have the power to repeal, no additional vetoes or opt-outs. In practical terms, zilch.
I am still incredulous that he and the EU expected us to fall for it, and even moreso that some Remain voters actually did.
With thanks to Ishmael_Z for the manual quoting lesson.
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) said Wednesday that congressional Republicans will aim next year to reduce spending on both federal health care and anti-poverty programs, citing the need to reduce America's deficit.
“We're going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” …
Comments
Nous voulons les États-Unis d'Europe.
We want the United States of Europe."
Can you imagine some alternate universe where Britain voted 52-48 to Remain and Schulz said that??????
Nein danke.
Non merci.
No thanks.
@TheWhiteRabbit
I'd also consider the parallel universe where Juncker, Schulz, et al. said much more of this bile before 23/06/16. It wouldn't have been a 52-48 result then!
Its a matter of when not if.
This is why, despite the current chaos I remain a 'leaver'. We cannot be part of the US of E, which is where the EU is heading.
If there was a way to be outside the polictial and economic integration, then beyond that, I don't really care what happens, get the best deal economic-wise, but have those red-lines.
Within a week things will look very different.
certainly if remain had won, there would be talk of the UK joining Euro/Schengen etc, at least rumblings from the usual suspects.
BTW you missed out the best bit - Schulz doesn't just want a USE, he wants it by 2025.
Shultz, Junker and the rest want to be a single European country - complete with military and treasury - as soon as possible, and the UK decided we didn't want to be a part of that.
But no. The EU is as indivisible as God, the US flag, or the Apostolic Church.
That wouldn't have changed if we'd voted Remain, Cameron's deal or not.
"No quote button: whither political discourse in the 21st Century"
Whilst trying and failing to find something I posted some time ago, I found the following which I posted just before the Referendum. If only Dave had followed my advice, how differently the last 18 months might have turned out, and how differently the current horrid mess might look!
>>>"If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think [Cameron] could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case)."<<<
But of course, as it turned out, Cameron was not so far off as hopeless at governing as May is proving to be.....
Witness recent comments from Shultz and Junker about an EU army and an EU treasury raising EU taxes.
"No quote button: whither political discourse in the 21st Century" "
Maybe this site has been hacked by Russia to stop us debating issues.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/938743250512433152
But don't quote me on that ....
Of course it's nonsense!!!
So why do the KEEP SAYING THAT it is impossible?
"Our Union is undivided and indivisible."
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-17-767_en.htm
"On balance, EU citizens contribute more than they benefit from the UK tax and social security system. In short, free movement of people is one of the four essential freedoms. These four freedoms are indivisible"
Barnier
etc. etc. etc.
Welcome back. It is indeed unfortunate that we do not have the skills and knowledge of both Cameron and Osborne to guide us through this. Their replacements have been less than optimal in a number of respects.
Nevertheless, I think even the EU is very slowly getting the message that we mean this and just making it difficult will not change our minds. Once we get over that hurdle, and it is a high one for single State zealots, the need for a deal that works for both parties going forward is overwhelming. We are just about there.
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!
https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/938733988713238528
It would be better to have a multi-destination Europe.
If freedom of movement is your problem now, you will have exactly the same problem with a future association agreement because the four freedoms will always constitute the intersection of the EU’s growing number of concentric circles.
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!"
So it aint gonna happen.
I would make a firm case for there being 27 speeds of Europe.
It lights up but nothing happens. Its a bit frustrating when you are catching up with the thread and there are comments you would want to respond to but the world is undoubtedly going to end because of Brexit before the quote button has that effect. After all, so many experts could not possibly be wrong.
This "automatically leave" option sounds pretty good to me..
"I'm glad Ishamel_Z and JonnyJimmy have worked out how to use the quote button. For the rest of you, I will post a YouTube video showing how to click on the "Quote" link below comments."
Edit: no!
Does that include Gibraltar, French Overseas Territories etc, etc?
We will end up with fudges, unacceptable compromises and concessions, and I am sure we will all get to the end of this thinking "has anything really changed" and "was it all really worth all this cost, effort and hassle"? We will have left the EU but remained in all but name. It was for that reason, mainly, that I decided with reluctance to vote Remain. I think I expressed this fear ad nauseum prior to 24 June 2016, and I am being proved right...
No.. I haven't mastered wrappers!
we're close...
Mrs May has subsequently read every situation badly. How did she not realise falling headlong into Brexit without a plan was a good idea? Why did she appoint scoundrels and incompetent chancers into key jobs? She triggered A50 on a whim linked to party expediency. Is she so thick-skinned that she could not judge that a deal with Arlene Foster was a really bad idea on so many levels, particularly considering the fragility of the sectarian ceasefire in NI?
The woman has only herself to blame, she is hopeless! Her only saving grace is Corbyn is infinitesimally worse.
So to speak .... and for which the May government clearly requires detox treatment.
In ten years time will there be more or less integration in the EU than now?
In twenty? In thirty?
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!
Eurosceptics have been saying this for years.
Some Remainers have a tin-ear for this as they prefer to pursue a culture war with Leavers. But we're all Britons and many of our favourite pb Remainers were considering Leave on the existing EU prospectus less than 2 years ago.
Do they really want this?
Those who want to stay close to the EU for fear of something worse have another argument up their sleeve too: Jeremy Corbyn. As the prospect of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister becomes ever more real, the idea of signing a deal that restricts the UK’s freedom of action becomes more appealing to those on the centre-right. The early Thatcher-era argument that Europe is a bulwark against Bennism (which led many Conservatives to oppose Brexit in the 1975 referendum) is making a comeback.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/12/the-brexit-breakdown/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/07/north-korea-says-outbreak-war-has-become-established-fact-us/
Utterly depressing.
In 2008 I believed a two speed Europe was both possible and desirable.
By 2016 I had had enough making excuses.
I still voted Remain, but not in the belief a two-speed Europe "proper" would even be created.
If the thought is that Britain will end up voluntarily integrating itself more with the rest of the EU because it wants to, it's not clear that this is a good argument for the inevitability of Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/07/north-korea-says-outbreak-war-has-become-established-fact-us/
Utterly depressing. "
They are still technically at war with South Korea....
That would be the quote button that still doesn't work I assume.
"The latest figures, from Prestige Nursing + Care, show that the average annual cost of a stay in a care home now exceeds £80,000 and is rising."
Frightening.
Well, he got more votes than Juncker ever received in his life, so....
Schulz is the kingmaker in the next German coalition and ex president of the Euro parliament.
The real 'hostile foreign power' many Leavers seem to be afraid of is Whitehall. They think Brexit is a way of drawing a line in the sand and constraining their schemes.
But joining the UK in some looser European Economic Commonwealth. The more the merrier.
EDIT: And just imagine THOSE border issues.....
Are you trying to convince yourself? Or others?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/29/vortex-online-political-debate-arguments-trump-brexit
<//blockquote class="Quote" rel="HIS_NAME">WHAT_HE_SAID
<///blockquote>WHAT_YOU_SAY.
You need to delete "//" in two places but leave the remaining one on the second occurrence.
Nesting class is next week.
"'Looser' presumably translates as 'British led'."
Or maybe just "not Franco-German dominated".
FWIW, I think that argument's total bunk - if Britain votes for a Corbyn government we should get one, warts and all.
Oh dear. That would leave the rosy two speed Europe rather gone wouldn't it!!!
Eurosceptics have been saying this for years.
Some Remainers have a tin-ear for this as they prefer to pursue a culture war with Leavers. But we're all Britons and many of our favourite pb Remainers were considering Leave on the existing EU prospectus less than 2 years ago.
Do they really want this?
Would there really have been a realistic prospect of this happening had we voted to remain ? I'm not overwhelmingly convinced.
One of the reasons our hitherto allies in Europe are a bit cross with us is that we seem to have abandoned them to their fate.
Is Schulz proposing an exit fee for those to be expelled... ?
Has anyone contacted Vanilla to find out what's happened?
Ignore me, just posted seconds before rcs1000 said he had.
So there is an issue ?
The choice last year was between a xenophobic Brexit and Remaining in a deeply flawed but ultimately well-meaning EU. The xenophobic Brexit continues to unravel.
So there is an issue ?
There's a two speed PB.
RCS and everyone else.
The flip of that is it is "difficult, if not impossible, to envisage a worse outcome for the EU" than a no-deal scenario. Fifty billion Euros light, and showing the world that their alliance of 27 states is impossible to negotiate with on a reasonable basis, even when it is in their interests to do so.
I am still incredulous that he and the EU expected us to fall for it, and even moreso that some Remain voters actually did.
With thanks to Ishmael_Z for the manual quoting lesson.
I prefer to think of it as a sectoral assessment.
I notice there was an update to Google Chrome on my PC last night so it might be a problem that's occurred after the latest Chrome update.
https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/938758567179509761
I haven't seen any Impact Assessments about the missing Quote function. Have they been prepared?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/01/gop-eyes-post-tax-cut-changes-to-welfare-medicare-and-social-security/?utm_term=.6a6f4994a1a4
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) said Wednesday that congressional Republicans will aim next year to reduce spending on both federal health care and anti-poverty programs, citing the need to reduce America's deficit.
“We're going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” …
I notice there was an update to Google Chrome on my PC last night so it might be a problem that's occurred after the latest Chrome update
Same problem on Firefox.