My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
The happy ones don't seem to be posting on ConHome:
"Total sell out by PM Mayhem"
"Would someone kindly summarise what the EU have conceded or given up? "
"Time for a challenge in the courts that May cannot sign this without Parliament’s agreement? "
"she has give up the big benefit of Brexit which was to allow the 94% of businesses that don’t trade with the EU the ability to deregulate. For nothing. "
"PM May must resign. This capitulation is humiliating"
"So, why are we leaving? "
"A Tory PM goes to Brussels to lick the dirt off the shoes of the EU. "
"Not sure whether to laugh or cry"
"Well, what was the point of committing time, money and effort to Leave? "
although to be fair there are one or two that recognise the PM's pragmatism.
In particular, the bit about the Irish border that caused difficulties with the Irish government on the one hand and the DUP on the other: this was solved by promising to do something implausible at a later date.
The text promises that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK would “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement”. It is not even grammatical (“support the protection”?).
But that is how international negotiations work. You agree the bits you can agree and put off the difficult bits until later. Again, it is the EU side that has given ground. It refused to move on to the talks about trade until the first three subjects, including the Irish border, had been agreed. This was then downgraded to “until sufficient progress had been made”. There hasn’t really been any progress at all – just a number of mutually contradictory declarations of intent – and yet the EU has agreed to move on.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Until we know that the outcome of the Electoral Commission investigation into Vote Leave and Leave EU we cannot presume that the leave victory was democratic.
Does the same apply to LD MPs being investigated over GE funding?
So, was Monday's breakdown real, or all part of an elaborate dance?
As I said after I saw Theresa on Monday evening she was very upbeat
I think it was a show
I love your name dropping!
Anyway, that's not what the Queen said when I saw her Tuesday morning.
It's not meant to be name dropping - just to provide context.
People here were gloomy on Monday so I mentioned that I'd seen Theresa (quite by chance - it had been arranged for a while she'd say a few words at a drinks party I was at) and that she was more positive than I expected.
That's more useful to people on here than just saying "It'll be fine" without providing context
Don't worry Charles - we're only jealous we weren't invited
Not sure about that quote - but it wasn't me !!!!!
The Vanilla automatic draft saving "feature" strikes again! I end up with bits of previous quotes left in the editor, and trim all but the outer quote which happens to be the wrong one. So I end up with the wrong names on quotes. I haven't been on here for a while so I forgot to carefully check. I'll be more careful.
Sorry about that, and I'm glad to hear you are on the mend.
Today is a huge victory for the UK. Not over the EU, but over the loons who wanted No Deal. We have very sensibly given the EU27 what they wanted and can now talk trade. I struggle to see how that can be portrayed as a defeat.
Theresa May will still be assailed from both sides. She should never have allowed the DUP to hold the talks to ransom, say the Remainers. She has conceded too much, say the hard Brexiters. But she has done the deal.
Four days ago serious people in her own party thought she faced the end of her time as Prime Minister and there was overheated talk about a possible general election.
Having achieved everything she set out to achieve – after a short detour through the history of Northern Ireland – Theresa May will be criticised as a terrible negotiator and a useless prime minister.
However bleak things looked on Monday, the chances are that Theresa May will still be the Prime Minister who takes Britain out of Europe.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
And how much has all your flag waving and uncritical adulation for the Prime Minister cost us ? For all her so-called negotiating brilliance, how much has she handed over to the EU for the divorce bill ?
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
Not seen anything from JRM but it won't be long I suspect.
John Redwood sounds unenthused on his blog:
"Everyone needs to remember that this agreement is not the Agreement on the UK leaving the EU. It is an agreement to talk about all matters, and is still governed by the crucial principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."
So, was Monday's breakdown real, or all part of an elaborate dance?
As I said after I saw Theresa on Monday evening she was very upbeat
I think it was a show
I love your name dropping!
Anyway, that's not what the Queen said when I saw her Tuesday morning.
It's not meant to be name dropping - just to provide context.
People here were gloomy on Monday so I mentioned that I'd seen Theresa (quite by chance - it had been arranged for a while she'd say a few words at a drinks party I was at) and that she was more positive than I expected.
That's more useful to people on here than just saying "It'll be fine" without providing context
Don't worry Charles - we're only jealous we weren't invited
You just have to write a big enough cheque
(Or in my case lend them my office...no cash cost...)
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
No, alignment specifically means following EU rules. Equivalence means having different regulations that are accepted by both sides. These terms are specific and clearly defined in the context of international trade treaties.
What happens if Ireland joins schengen. I appreciate in the short term that is unlikely as the sea provides a border that is more easily controlled than a land border so schengen doesn't have the same imperative that it has for countries with land borders. However if closer union advances it is a possibility.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
I've always wanted to know, how much space is there on the head of a pin?
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
What happens if Ireland joins schengen. I appreciate in the short term that is unlikely as the sea provides a border that is more easily controlled than a land border so schengen doesn't have the same imperative that it has for countries with land borders. However if closer union advances it is a possibility.
Hassle free access to the UK is more important than free access to the continent for the Irish. Equally entering Schengen isn't much of an issue unless you are flying to a small regional airport or country that doesn't like foreigners. CDG I'm talking about you...
On topic, this is actually a good solution. I mean, Frinton pretty much has a hard border with the rest of the UK already.
People in the most anti-EU areas are generally nearly as suspicious of people from foreign parts of Britain as people from the rest of the world, so make them independent crown dependencies and let them have their own borders and immigration policies.
There are quite a few people in Britain who don't like cultural change. If that's how they want to live, what's wrong with that? We shouldn't let them hold everyone else back, but we also shouldn't force change on them either. Create some traditionalist territories where lots of people who feel like that already live, and let other people who feel the same way move there if they want to, provided the local inhabitants will give them visas.
If Rafael Behr and James O'Brien are pissed off then thats good enough for me. The pathway towards reinstanting our relationship with the EU from circa 30 years ago is in place. Yes we want trade but we want to halt and reverse further integration into the EU project.
The soft Brexit means the likes of Farage can always hold May and the EU's feet to the flames but also ensures no momentum can be gathered for reversing the process/full integration.
Yes it's a fudge but it's an option that the majority will either like or accept and the one most likely to keep Labour away from Number 10.
I am not surprised that the Remainers are celebrating today. I am somewhat surprised that so many leavers do not understand what has happened.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
Not sure about that quote - but it wasn't me !!!!!
The Vanilla automatic draft saving "feature" strikes again! I end up with bits of previous quotes left in the editor, and trim all but the outer quote which happens to be the wrong one. So I end up with the wrong names on quotes. I haven't been on here for a while so I forgot to carefully check. I'll be more careful.
Sorry about that, and I'm glad to hear you are on the mend.
I struggle all the time with editing and thanks for your wishes
I suspect it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area.....(one of the reasons they didn't join Schengen in the first place...)
Why on earth would they join Schengen? They are an island and I doubt the volume of people travelling to and from mainland EU is worth losing CTA over by making their lives a minute bit easier at passport.
What happens if Ireland joins schengen. I appreciate in the short term that is unlikely as the sea provides a border that is more easily controlled than a land border so schengen doesn't have the same imperative that it has for countries with land borders. However if closer union advances it is a possibility.
Why would they? Ireland has a permanent opt out. Schengen exists to make travelling through the continent easier. Ireland isn't on the continent.
I am not surprised that the Remainers are celebrating today. I am somewhat surprised that so many leavers do not understand what has happened.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
" the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged " Rubbish, the damage was done by the Leavers and their dishonest campaign.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Until we know that the outcome of the Electoral Commission investigation into Vote Leave and Leave EU we cannot presume that the leave victory was democratic.
Will they be investigating the government's pro-Remain propaganda sheet while they are at it?
No, that was legal. Whether it was fair is a different matter. In any case, no-one really cares about the expenses of candidates or campaigns that lost.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
No, alignment specifically means following EU rules. Equivalence means having different regulations that are accepted by both sides. These terms are specific and clearly defined in the context of international trade treaties.
No, it's not clearly defined. (and don't bother trying to claim the definition from the Ukraine agreement is a standard one used globally because it's not)
I suspect it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area.....(one of the reasons they didn't join Schengen in the first place...)
Why on earth would they join Schengen? They are an island and I doubt the volume of people travelling to and from mainland EU is worth losing CTA over by making their lives a minute bit easier at passport.
Or am I missing something?
You aren't, it's just another facetious "what if".
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Until we know that the outcome of the Electoral Commission investigation into Vote Leave and Leave EU we cannot presume that the leave victory was democratic.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
And how much has all your flag waving and uncritical adulation for the Prime Minister cost us ? For all her so-called negotiating brilliance, how much has she handed over to the EU for the divorce bill ?
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
She will have taken the majority of the Country with her today. Some, maybe many, will be upset but most will not
I am not surprised that the Remainers are celebrating today. I am somewhat surprised that so many leavers do not understand what has happened.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
The Times "Philip Collins: the fight for the Tory crown has already begun, and Brexiteers should accept that the best alternative leaders are Remainers"
Suppose UKIP rises again. Which party does that harm more?
It might be Labour.
Right now the high polling for both parties is motivated by blues worried about the friend of Hamas, and reds worried about the baby-eating Tories. If that's accurate, I'd suggest reds might be likelier to shift than blues. Could be wrong, of course, but worth considering.
Will the Lib Dems advocate rejoining?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, that's rather good.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
As for Europe, disaster has been averted. "Full alignment with the single market and the customs union" will be seen as carved in stone by industry, which means no variance from the status quo which means we can enjoy Honda and the like staying in the UK.
Full alignment means exactly that. What we are committed to now as members we will be committed to then as external partners. And that means the Four Freedoms - which means Free Movement. The EU has been clear that you can't cherry pick access to the SM you are in or out. We have signed a deal to leave in name only, which means we keep free movement.
The Tories will try and fudge that. Saying presumably that "we are leaving" means whatever you want Mr Voter even though in practice nothing will change. As with The Emperor's New Clothes at some point some unkind person will say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis" and the whole facade comes crashing down.
Given the amount of fire and fury amongst Tory members / voters that has driven May to such stupid lengths all of which she has has to capitulate over, I cannot see how she will be allowed to carry on for long. People aren't stupid. Even Tory voters (which is a contradiction in terms I know...)
The rub appears to be is that Brexiteers will suck up almost anything that is temporary and the EU will suck up anything being temporary as long as it endures beyond the timeline of the current officials job and budget cycle.
Both sides happy to can kick - Brexiteers happy as long as the can won't be kicked forever.
I am not surprised that the Remainers are celebrating today. I am somewhat surprised that so many leavers do not understand what has happened.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
In bold. You got it, mate! May, after all, was a Remainer. I thought she had sold out. She didn't.
"Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached'" was indeed the masterstroke, hidden underneath.
I suspect it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area.....(one of the reasons they didn't join Schengen in the first place...)
Why on earth would they join Schengen? They are an island and I doubt the volume of people travelling to and from mainland EU is worth losing CTA over by making their lives a minute bit easier at passport.
Or am I missing something?
You aren't, it's just another facetious "what if".
I see you both think you have the ability to read my mind. If you had bothered to read my post you would have seen that I didn't think it was likely (certainly in the short term because of the benefits to Ireland in being outside of it). It wasn't a facetious 'what if'. Thank you for that insult, but a serious question. Sometime in the distant future, if there is greater union in the EU that is something that will need to be considered. Currently the decision for Ireland is a no brainer. Future changes in the EU may not make that so.
I am not surprised that the Remainers are celebrating today. I am somewhat surprised that so many leavers do not understand what has happened.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
The Times "Philip Collins: the fight for the Tory crown has already begun, and Brexiteers should accept that the best alternative leaders are Remainers"
Buy Hammond. This lokks like his very soft Brexit.
A united Ireland within the EU would be a goldmine. Apparently the Republic aren't too keen to take on the North but in a vote they'd probably go along with it according to Kieran's podcast.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
I suspect it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area.....(one of the reasons they didn't join Schengen in the first place...)
Why on earth would they join Schengen? They are an island and I doubt the volume of people travelling to and from mainland EU is worth losing CTA over by making their lives a minute bit easier at passport.
Or am I missing something?
You aren't, it's just another facetious "what if".
I see you both think you have the ability to read my mind. If you had bothered to read my post you would have seen that I didn't think it was likely (certainly in the short term because of the benefits to Ireland in being outside of it). It wasn't a facetious 'what if'. Thank you for that insult, but a serious question. Sometime in the distant future, if there is greater union in the EU that is something that will need to be considered. Currently the decision for Ireland is a no brainer. Future changes in the EU may not make that so.
Try not insulting someone who asks a question.
Ireland has a permanent opt out of Schengen and the CTA is recognised in the EU treaties, in order to remove it's recognition the EU would have to force Ireland to agree. Even within a USE Ireland would still not be on the continent. Additionally, I'm pretty sure Ireland would be more likely to leave than join any future USE.
After months of Brexiteer Ultras saying we were definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU, they're now holding up their interpretation of overnight events as confirmation that we're definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU.
I can barely credit it, but does this mean that they might not have actually believed previously that we were definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU? If so, I may have to take their current statements with a pinch of salt.
Not entirely. Before 2021, lots of strawberries will have to be picked and lots of vacancies will need to be filled in the NHS. A system of liberal work permits will come into play. It will start with one year and gradually, like the non-EU "given leave to remain in the UK", will be extended to 5 years to "save waste of bureaucratic time".
What happens if Ireland joins schengen. I appreciate in the short term that is unlikely as the sea provides a border that is more easily controlled than a land border so schengen doesn't have the same imperative that it has for countries with land borders. However if closer union advances it is a possibility.
Hassle free access to the UK is more important than free access to the continent for the Irish. Equally entering Schengen isn't much of an issue unless you are flying to a small regional airport or country that doesn't like foreigners. CDG I'm talking about you...
Thanks Eek (and Charlotte) for the civilised reply.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
But since we'll no longer have a seat at the table, it'll be the sort of partnership where they give the orders and we jump. A strange way to take control.
As for Europe, disaster has been averted. "Full alignment with the single market and the customs union" will be seen as carved in stone by industry, which means no variance from the status quo which means we can enjoy Honda and the like staying in the UK.
Full alignment means exactly that. What we are committed to now as members we will be committed to then as external partners. And that means the Four Freedoms - which means Free Movement. The EU has been clear that you can't cherry pick access to the SM you are in or out. We have signed a deal to leave in name only, which means we keep free movement.
The Tories will try and fudge that. Saying presumably that "we are leaving" means whatever you want Mr Voter even though in practice nothing will change. As with The Emperor's New Clothes at some point some unkind person will say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis" and the whole facade comes crashing down.
Given the amount of fire and fury amongst Tory members / voters that has driven May to such stupid lengths all of which she has has to capitulate over, I cannot see how she will be allowed to carry on for long. People aren't stupid. Even Tory voters (which is a contradiction in terms I know...)
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
David and Fox should have been gone yesterday. I have a friend in the DfIT, (I'm going to be vague and use they, to protect their identity) they say it's a disaster and Fox is a complete fool.
In no way diminishing May's good day, I do wonder whether the brinkmanship was inevitable. It does seem sad that such important things are decided at the last minute of late night calls.
Human nature seems to drive us towards these moments.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
I think Hammond should get credit for work behind the scenes. His was the lone voice of pragmatism.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
Surely in that respect we will be aligned as there will be freedom of movement within our single market.
Morning all. I see that Nick Palmer and I were right.
The pundits need to reassess things. Theresa May is going to bring off a reasonable Brexit deal. She might not be the most accomplished of politicians, especially on the presentation side, but she is tenacious.
Given the over-the-top media and political coverage over the past few months, any kind of half-reasonable final deal which allows the planes to keep flying and avoids 24-hour delays at Dover is going to look like a triumph. Assuming, as now seems highly likely that the EU does actually want to come to a reasonable arrangement, any Brexit damage to the economy is likely to be muted and therefore not a big political issue. My prediction is that Theresa May will retire with grace having delivered what she set out to deliver on Brexit, and the election will be fought by a new Tory leader (and not one of the current front-runners). Predictions of the electoral demise of the Conservative Party are premature.
The rub appears to be is that Brexiteers will suck up almost anything that is temporary and the EU will suck up anything being temporary as long as it endures beyond the timeline of the current officials job and budget cycle.
Both sides happy to can kick - Brexiteers happy as long as the can won't be kicked forever.
Its certainly true that a lot can change in a decade.
In no way diminishing May's good day, I do wonder whether the brinkmanship was inevitable. It does seem sad that such important things are decided at the last minute of late night calls.
Human nature seems to drive us towards these moments.
I think that was deliberate. It cuts out the discussion.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
One of two things will happen - having utterly capitulated on all of their red lines the nutters will either move to take her out or they won't. If the latter then she has won the power battle and is free to sack whomever she wants.
We won't need Fox or his department as we are to remain fully aligned with the EEA which means no external deals that contradict their deals. We won't need that lying toad Davis and his oh yes they do oh no they don't sectoral documents as we've committed to full alignment. The world doesn't need that over-sexed under-Brained pillock of a Foreign Secretary.
Which creates openings for the likes of the Moggmeister who can be brought inside the tent.
Were I her (and I have a soul I am not) I would think "screw it" and sack the lot of them this weekend. "Deal" done in Brussels (and she has been done), now a quick move to remain in office whilst they are still reeling from her brave retreat from all of her principled red lines.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
That was the crucial bit in the whole statement. If nothing is agreed, the default is full alignment.
I didn't realise that the Single Market and the Customs Union could be called something else. Who cares ? What's in a name ?
The rub appears to be is that Brexiteers will suck up almost anything that is temporary and the EU will suck up anything being temporary as long as it endures beyond the timeline of the current officials job and budget cycle.
Both sides happy to can kick - Brexiteers happy as long as the can won't be kicked forever.
That seems to be the way it is going to go.
I am pleased as it looks like a workable solution for a soft Brexit.
I am sad because it probably means my bet with Richard Nabavi that we would end up in the EEA via EFTA is probably dead. I am not quite prepared to pay out yet (sorry Richard ) but I think my preferred Brexit solution has now been effectively bypassed.
I suppose all along we should have known there would be a large element of can kicking in any agreement. It is after all how the EU (including ourselves) have handled pretty much every problem since the beginning of the whole project.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
David and Fox should have been gone yesterday. I have a friend in the DfIT, (I'm going to be vague and use they, to protect their identity) they say it's a disaster and Fox is a complete fool.
Max while you're on re Macquarie they have been quite free with their trigger finger of late. You might want to check on what’s happening in your area before you jump.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
If nothing is agreed, the default is full alignment.
If 'nothing is agreed' then, by definition nothing is agreed
Morning all. I see that Nick Palmer and I were right.
The pundits need to reassess things. Theresa May is going to bring off a reasonable Brexit deal. She might not be the most accomplished of politicians, especially on the presentation side, but she is tenacious.
Given the over-the-top media and political coverage over the past few months, any kind of half-reasonable final deal which allows the planes to keep flying and avoids 24-hour delays at Dover is going to look like a triumph. Assuming, as now seems highly likely that the EU does actually want to come to a reasonable arrangement, any Brexit damage to the economy is likely to be muted and therefore not a big political issue. My prediction is that Theresa May will retire with grace having delivered what she set out to deliver on Brexit, and the election will be fought by a new Tory leader (and not one of the current front-runners). Predictions of the electoral demise of the Conservative Party are premature.
With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.
In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.
So, we seem to have decided that the default is full alignment with the IM and CU (which is more or less the Norway option, accepting the rules without being part of the process), unless we come up with something that Ireland and the others can accept.
Not exactly. There's a lot of shaping around the rules and discussion the EEA states can do (http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features ), and they can wave the sovereignty flag if something impinges on their sovereignty.
We're looking to genuinely follow the "accepting the rules without being part of the process" route, which does look to me as though we've resolved the issue by trading away the sovereignty element for the anti-FoM element, which will gratify those who voted Leave in immigration grounds, but at the cost of pissing off those who voted Leave on sovereignty grounds.
Unless we get lucky enough for those to rationalise it away, which should be within the scope of human possibility. Fingers crossed.
In some ways, this deal means the UK’s negotiators got their way – Britain has always said that it would be easier to solve some of the “separation” issues at the same time as talks about Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Kicking the can down the road is doing just that – seeing if something will turn up.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
"alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
That was the crucial bit in the whole statement. If nothing is agreed, the default is full alignment.
I didn't realise that the Single Market and the Customs Union could be called something else. Who cares ? What's in a name ?
Its a British Sausage, not an Emulsified High Fat Offal Tube. Which was also a Christmas Yes Minister:
Morning all. I see that Nick Palmer and I were right.
The pundits need to reassess things. Theresa May is going to bring off a reasonable Brexit deal. She might not be the most accomplished of politicians, especially on the presentation side, but she is tenacious.
Given the over-the-top media and political coverage over the past few months, any kind of half-reasonable final deal which allows the planes to keep flying and avoids 24-hour delays at Dover is going to look like a triumph. Assuming, as now seems highly likely that the EU does actually want to come to a reasonable arrangement, any Brexit damage to the economy is likely to be muted and therefore not a big political issue. My prediction is that Theresa May will retire with grace having delivered what she set out to deliver on Brexit, and the election will be fought by a new Tory leader (and not one of the current front-runners). Predictions of the electoral demise of the Conservative Party are premature.
With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.
In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.
I pretty much agree with this. IF (and its a BIG IF), May and the Tories can get through and get a deal which isn't too damaging economic wise, and which gives some move on non-economic issues which are also important to people then it at least begins to neuter the negative fallout which has happened.
Then the attention moves to domestic matters and what's not what labour is going to want.
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
And how much has all your flag waving and uncritical adulation for the Prime Minister cost us ? For all her so-called negotiating brilliance, how much has she handed over to the EU for the divorce bill ?
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
She will have taken the majority of the Country with her today. Some, maybe many, will be upset but most will not
But the really important question is: has she managed to keep the Tory Party in one piece? The survival and wellbeing of the country is of secondary importance.
I suspect it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area.....(one of the reasons they didn't join Schengen in the first place...)
Why on earth would they join Schengen? They are an island and I doubt the volume of people travelling to and from mainland EU is worth losing CTA over by making their lives a minute bit easier at passport.
Or am I missing something?
You aren't, it's just another facetious "what if".
I see you both think you have the ability to read my mind. If you had bothered to read my post you would have seen that I didn't think it was likely (certainly in the short term because of the benefits to Ireland in being outside of it). It wasn't a facetious 'what if'. Thank you for that insult, but a serious question. Sometime in the distant future, if there is greater union in the EU that is something that will need to be considered. Currently the decision for Ireland is a no brainer. Future changes in the EU may not make that so.
Try not insulting someone who asks a question.
Ireland has a permanent opt out of Schengen and the CTA is recognised in the EU treaties, in order to remove it's recognition the EU would have to force Ireland to agree. Even within a USE Ireland would still not be on the continent. Additionally, I'm pretty sure Ireland would be more likely to leave than join any future USE.
Cheers for that MaxPB. I must admit I agree. It just popped into my brain this morning. I was thinking of changes that might happen over the next decades in the relationships between countries. Of course being in the EU is also not a requirement.
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
And how much has all your flag waving and uncritical adulation for the Prime Minister cost us ? For all her so-called negotiating brilliance, how much has she handed over to the EU for the divorce bill ?
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
She will have taken the majority of the Country with her today. Some, maybe many, will be upset but most will not
But the really important question is: has she managed to keep the Tory Party in one piece? The survival and wellbeing of the country is of secondary importance.
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
And how much has all your flag waving and uncritical adulation for the Prime Minister cost us ? For all her so-called negotiating brilliance, how much has she handed over to the EU for the divorce bill ?
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
She will have taken the majority of the Country with her today. Some, maybe many, will be upset but most will not
But the really important question is: has she managed to keep the Tory Party in one piece? The survival and wellbeing of the country is of secondary importance.
Boris, Gove, Patel seem to be on board...
Farage, Banks and the other UKIP loons (including a few tory MPs) were never going to want any kind of deal.
Gove and Boris I have a feeling are more pragmatic. They know that is going to be as good as it gets.
I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.
And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
David and Fox should have been gone yesterday. I have a friend in the DfIT, (I'm going to be vague and use they, to protect their identity) they say it's a disaster and Fox is a complete fool.
Max while you're on re Macquarie they have been quite free with their trigger finger of late. You might want to check on what’s happening in your area before you jump.
Yeah, I've been looking into it thanks to some other advice given by someone on PB. Not convinced so far.
Comments
Oops.
The text promises that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK would “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement”. It is not even grammatical (“support the protection”?).
But that is how international negotiations work. You agree the bits you can agree and put off the difficult bits until later. Again, it is the EU side that has given ground. It refused to move on to the talks about trade until the first three subjects, including the Irish border, had been agreed. This was then downgraded to “until sufficient progress had been made”. There hasn’t really been any progress at all – just a number of mutually contradictory declarations of intent – and yet the EU has agreed to move on.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-negotiations-breakthrough-ireland-borders-dup-eu-uk-bargaining-power-talks-a8098541.html
Sorry about that, and I'm glad to hear you are on the mend.
Theresa May will still be assailed from both sides. She should never have allowed the DUP to hold the talks to ransom, say the Remainers. She has conceded too much, say the hard Brexiters. But she has done the deal.
Four days ago serious people in her own party thought she faced the end of her time as Prime Minister and there was overheated talk about a possible general election.
Having achieved everything she set out to achieve – after a short detour through the history of Northern Ireland – Theresa May will be criticised as a terrible negotiator and a useless prime minister.
However bleak things looked on Monday, the chances are that Theresa May will still be the Prime Minister who takes Britain out of Europe.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-negotiations-breakthrough-ireland-borders-dup-eu-uk-bargaining-power-talks-a8098541.html
https://twitter.com/moggmentum/status/939049260804444160
It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
Why can't she stand up and tell us the exact amount ?
Answer, because she knows there will be outrage when we discover the price for her short lived diplomatic "triumph".
As with David Cameron's much-vaunted "flounce" a few years ago, a brief spell of short-term popularity has been bought at a very heavy price.
John Redwood sounds unenthused on his blog:
"Everyone needs to remember that this agreement is not the Agreement on the UK leaving the EU. It is an agreement to talk about all matters, and is still governed by the crucial principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."
(Or in my case lend them my office...no cash cost...)
http://www.unrisd.org/80256B3C005BD6AB/(httpEvents)/1AF5E53BD5678595C12581D40044AA6C?OpenDocument
People in the most anti-EU areas are generally nearly as suspicious of people from foreign parts of Britain as people from the rest of the world, so make them independent crown dependencies and let them have their own borders and immigration policies.
There are quite a few people in Britain who don't like cultural change. If that's how they want to live, what's wrong with that? We shouldn't let them hold everyone else back, but we also shouldn't force change on them either. Create some traditionalist territories where lots of people who feel like that already live, and let other people who feel the same way move there if they want to, provided the local inhabitants will give them visas.
The soft Brexit means the likes of Farage can always hold May and the EU's feet to the flames but also ensures no momentum can be gathered for reversing the process/full integration.
Yes it's a fudge but it's an option that the majority will either like or accept and the one most likely to keep Labour away from Number 10.
The ECJ and money issues are not good outcomes, but of course both issues are only temporary.
Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached' is one of the greatest acts of self harm possible. Just like she did by agreeing the staging of talks in the first place, she has lost the negotiation on trade before she has started. All the EU now have to do (which is what they will do) is to declare that none of the UK proposals on trade are sufficient to solve the NI border issue, and therefore the UK must accept regulatory alignment. This is what they have been planning all along and, with the trap right in front of her, May jumped in.
I think we can conclude that May knows what she is doing but has capitulated because she is weak, lacking in any principles and a coward.
The leavers in the Cabinet also look set to capitulate. Most of us leavers assumed that the Gove/Johnson/Davis axis would stop this sort of surrender. But it seems they are too scared to take the steps that their principles would demand.
I do hope JRM comes out and condemns the agreement. If so, he will be odds on to take over from May when the trade talks descend into fiasco.
I will finish with one thought - on the remainers. This episode has demonstrated their total lack of patriotism. It is fine to argue for SM/CU membership or EEA. But that is not what is going to happen. Instead, the UK will have all the restrictions of the SM/CU but will NOT get the trading benefits, and will instead have no access to services and no 'frictionless' trade. Such an outcome can only damage the UK. Yet the remainers are delighted that the UK has been damaged and that the EU has triumphed. Given how many of the elite follow this view, it is no surprise that the country has been sold out, yet again, to the EU.
Or am I missing something?
The picture says it all.
Rubbish, the damage was done by the Leavers and their dishonest campaign.
Have you been mis-sold PPE?
It might be Labour.
Right now the high polling for both parties is motivated by blues worried about the friend of Hamas, and reds worried about the baby-eating Tories. If that's accurate, I'd suggest reds might be likelier to shift than blues. Could be wrong, of course, but worth considering.
Will the Lib Dems advocate rejoining?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, that's rather good.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/939067389815160832
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/939067704660713472
And while you are at it, Blair's, Mandelson's, Campbell's, Clegg's......
As for Europe, disaster has been averted. "Full alignment with the single market and the customs union" will be seen as carved in stone by industry, which means no variance from the status quo which means we can enjoy Honda and the like staying in the UK.
Full alignment means exactly that. What we are committed to now as members we will be committed to then as external partners. And that means the Four Freedoms - which means Free Movement. The EU has been clear that you can't cherry pick access to the SM you are in or out. We have signed a deal to leave in name only, which means we keep free movement.
The Tories will try and fudge that. Saying presumably that "we are leaving" means whatever you want Mr Voter even though in practice nothing will change. As with The Emperor's New Clothes at some point some unkind person will say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis" and the whole facade comes crashing down.
Given the amount of fire and fury amongst Tory members / voters that has driven May to such stupid lengths all of which she has has to capitulate over, I cannot see how she will be allowed to carry on for long. People aren't stupid. Even Tory voters (which is a contradiction in terms I know...)
Both sides happy to can kick - Brexiteers happy as long as the can won't be kicked forever.
"Agreeing to regulatory alignment 'if no other agreement can be reached'" was indeed the masterstroke, hidden underneath.
May clearly had a good day. The first of her premiership. Remarkable what you can achieve by bypassing David Davis.
Try not insulting someone who asks a question.
The last time that happened was in 1996-97:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k27y/diop
And the trade deficit for the first ten months of 2017 is £22bn, down from £35bn in the same period in 2016:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
She then followed it up by the worst General Election campaign in living memory. A sort of reverse Basil II.
The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.
Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?
After months of Brexiteer Ultras saying we were definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU, they're now holding up their interpretation of overnight events as confirmation that we're definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU.
I can barely credit it, but does this mean that they might not have actually believed previously that we were definitely, definitely, definitely leaving the EU? If so, I may have to take their current statements with a pinch of salt.
At least, for today, May has done a good job.
JRM, suck it up!
Human nature seems to drive us towards these moments.
The pundits need to reassess things. Theresa May is going to bring off a reasonable Brexit deal. She might not be the most accomplished of politicians, especially on the presentation side, but she is tenacious.
Given the over-the-top media and political coverage over the past few months, any kind of half-reasonable final deal which allows the planes to keep flying and avoids 24-hour delays at Dover is going to look like a triumph. Assuming, as now seems highly likely that the EU does actually want to come to a reasonable arrangement, any Brexit damage to the economy is likely to be muted and therefore not a big political issue. My prediction is that Theresa May will retire with grace having delivered what she set out to deliver on Brexit, and the election will be fought by a new Tory leader (and not one of the current front-runners). Predictions of the electoral demise of the Conservative Party are premature.
We won't need Fox or his department as we are to remain fully aligned with the EEA which means no external deals that contradict their deals.
We won't need that lying toad Davis and his oh yes they do oh no they don't sectoral documents as we've committed to full alignment.
The world doesn't need that over-sexed under-Brained pillock of a Foreign Secretary.
Which creates openings for the likes of the Moggmeister who can be brought inside the tent.
Were I her (and I have a soul I am not) I would think "screw it" and sack the lot of them this weekend. "Deal" done in Brussels (and she has been done), now a quick move to remain in office whilst they are still reeling from her brave retreat from all of her principled red lines.
I didn't realise that the Single Market and the Customs Union could be called something else. Who cares ? What's in a name ?
I am pleased as it looks like a workable solution for a soft Brexit.
I am sad because it probably means my bet with Richard Nabavi that we would end up in the EEA via EFTA is probably dead. I am not quite prepared to pay out yet (sorry Richard
I suppose all along we should have known there would be a large element of can kicking in any agreement. It is after all how the EU (including ourselves) have handled pretty much every problem since the beginning of the whole project.
https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/939036827196915713
1) It's true.
2) The EU feels the need to shore up Theresa May.
It looks like the EU are falling for the "gorilla in the cage" negotiating tactic.
In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.
There's a lot of shaping around the rules and discussion the EEA states can do (http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features ), and they can wave the sovereignty flag if something impinges on their sovereignty.
We're looking to genuinely follow the "accepting the rules without being part of the process" route, which does look to me as though we've resolved the issue by trading away the sovereignty element for the anti-FoM element, which will gratify those who voted Leave in immigration grounds, but at the cost of pissing off those who voted Leave on sovereignty grounds.
Unless we get lucky enough for those to rationalise it away, which should be within the scope of human possibility. Fingers crossed.
Who won?
In some ways, this deal means the UK’s negotiators got their way – Britain has always said that it would be easier to solve some of the “separation” issues at the same time as talks about Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Kicking the can down the road is doing just that – seeing if something will turn up.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-ireland-border-theresa-may-eu-dup-talks-juncker-barnier-a8098566.html
https://youtu.be/OzeDZtx3wUw
Then the attention moves to domestic matters and what's not what labour is going to want.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/939074851951841280
http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/enquesta-eleccions-catalunya-21-d-2_218283_102.html
NEW THREAD
Gove and Boris I have a feeling are more pragmatic. They know that is going to be as good as it gets.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/07/firefighters-free-youtube-prankster-who-cemented-head-into-microwave