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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Brexit negotiations cartoon

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.

    Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
    "alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.

    It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
    Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
    We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
    Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
    I think they are talking about the detailed rules, not the Four Freedoms.

    Moreover it is only limited to where necessary to support North-South cooperation & since that is covered by the CTA you don't have to accept all the SMCU rules.

    My read is this allows for sector by sector based alignment (e.g. automotive, pharma and agriculture).
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.

    Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
    "alignment" doesn't mean mirroring.

    It could mean anything from cut'n'paste to equivalence...
    Okay, but what I mean is the issue of FoM is still to come.
    We've said we are leaving the Single Market, so FoM goes with that
    Not with "full alignment with those rules of the single market and customs union". If we aren't aligned on the four freedoms we aren't fully aligned.
    I think they are talking about the detailed rules, not the Four Freedoms.

    Moreover it is only limited to where necessary to support North-South cooperation & since that is covered by the CTA you don't have to accept all the SMCU rules.

    My read is this allows for sector by sector based alignment (e.g. automotive, pharma and agriculture).
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    NEW THREAD
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    This tweet is noteworthy for two reasons:

    https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/939036827196915713

    1) It's true.
    2) The EU feels the need to shore up Theresa May.

    It looks like the EU are falling for the "gorilla in the cage" negotiating tactic.

    The EU wants Theresa May more than the alternatives. No surprise there!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Have JRM, IDS, Redwood, Cash et al commented on the complete capitulation yet.

    As a Brexiteer I am happy TM has come round to my way of thinking on trade but cant think the Nuttier Brexiteers would be happy.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what this does is confirm, once and for all, that the UK is leaving the EU in some shape or form. I'm on the same train as @rcs1000, Brexit is a journey - we will remove ourselves from the EU and it's rule making one step at a time. In a few years once we have resolved our international trading and long term trading relationship with the EU, I'm sure we will move one step further away from it. In the end we will end up in a similar position to Switzerland, partners, but not joined to the project.

    And most people will be able to live with that. Whether as a final destination it will be worth all the bother is a different point. We are where we are.

    The good news is that May has shown herself to be pragmatic in the end. She accepted the EU27's red lines for what there were and realised that they had to be accommodated. That bodes well for the trade talks. Now the government needs to work out what it wants and what it can reasonably achieve. That will be an interesting exercise.

    Having got to Phase Two, does May need wasters like Johnson, Fox and Davis in the cabinet anymore?

    David and Fox should have been gone yesterday. I have a friend in the DfIT, (I'm going to be vague and use they, to protect their identity) they say it's a disaster and Fox is a complete fool.
    Max while you're on re Macquarie they have been quite free with their trigger finger of late. You might want to check on what’s happening in your area before you jump.
    How did Fox ever qualify to be a general practitioner? Looking on Wikipedia, it's not 'innate breeding' in his case.

    If your friend has enough evidence that Fox is such a fool he's unfit to be a minister s/he should leak to Private Eye. NB - the Eye rigorously protects its sources unlike some of the 'standard' press.

    I cannot understand why the Liechtenstein option has been rejected. Peter Hitchens proposed something like it. They are in the EEA/SM but have virtually blocked FOM.
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    With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.

    In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.

    Hard Brexit would have broken our economy and taken the Tories with it - that was the Extinction Level Event I referred to. The Tories will survive now that's clear, how others react will judge how well they do in the polls.

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223



    So, we seem to have decided that the default is full alignment with the IM and CU (which is more or less the Norway option, accepting the rules without being part of the process), unless we come up with something that Ireland and the others can accept.

    Not exactly.
    There's a lot of shaping around the rules and discussion the EEA states can do (http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features ), and they can wave the sovereignty flag if something impinges on their sovereignty.

    We're looking to genuinely follow the "accepting the rules without being part of the process" route, which does look to me as though we've resolved the issue by trading away the sovereignty element for the anti-FoM element, which will gratify those who voted Leave in immigration grounds, but at the cost of pissing off those who voted Leave on sovereignty grounds.

    Unless we get lucky enough for those to rationalise it away, which should be within the scope of human possibility. Fingers crossed.
    This. Freedom of movement is dead in the long term. Sorry Remainers!
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    Overnight Theresa May appears to have gone from Mr Bean to Stalin.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Could be hard to make the initial call to the emergency services!
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    Like budgets, will the agreement with the EU unravel when the small print emerges?

    Normall the issue is that things are necesary but not sufficient.

    With the Brexit agreement I suspect things will be sufficient but not necessary.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,157

    Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time

    I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.

    Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.

    However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas

    Glad to hear you are on the mend. I hope you get all the rest you need over Xmas.
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