As the price gets higher, the more electricity you can throw at Bitcoins to mine profitably.
It is like a free market renewable heating initiative with no end in sight.
I saw an advert for a "computational heating" product. You replace all your radiators with black boxes full of GPUs and an internet connection. You pay for the electricity to run them, and they heat your house.
There wasn't a great deal of information about exactly which computations would be running on them though...
LOL, the point at which you know it’s a bubble waiting to burst.
The bitcoin craziness has a hard limit when global power resources are insufficient to drive it. Could we be heading for global blackouts maybe ?
Is there not a limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined?
1 coin is produced every 10 minutes. The difficulty of producing a coin is directly proportional to the global resources being focussed to produce the next coin.So in theory the power resources being consumed should be around $100,000 per hour globally right now. As the price rises so does the marginal energy cost
Currently the reward is 12.5 coins every ten minutes not 1.
So the rational power consumption is 12.5 * 100,000$ at 12 cents/kw hr
I make that roughly 10 Gigawatts/hour is the rational electricity use for bitcoin globally right now.
Actually thats not an issue, I think it puts a hard cap on BTC at $80 Bn/Bitcoin though...
To make May seem competent and diplomatic in comparison ?
it just goes to show how toxic Brexit is. Leaving aside whether it was the right or wrong decision (note: it was the wrong one), it is an impossible task for any government. Dear god if Lab had the slightest sense they would ditch Jezza, wait for the B-word to destroy the Cons completely and march to a 300 seat majority.
Must be why the majority of Brits now think leaving the EU was the right decision. Remainers talking each other to confirm each others' prejudices doesn't change that.
At some point you obviously say: let's make a go of it. Totally understandable. I am in the camp of wanting the best possible Brexit and don't think we could or should rejoin.
But voting to Leave was of course the wrong decision.
If the best possible Brexit is indefinite purgatory within the single market and customs union, as now seems to be the direction of travel, is it not already apparent that it will have to be reversed at some point?
If we go through with Brexit on these terms, the UK will become a kind of non-state, strapped to the geopolitical operating table until its constituent parts re-establish their sovereignty within the EU.
Good grief. If Britain stays in the EU becoming a non-state is a certainty sooner or later. You do make a good case for not staying in the SM/CU indefinitely though - good thing that isn't government policy.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
As the price gets higher, the more electricity you can throw at Bitcoins to mine profitably.
It is like a free market renewable heating initiative with no end in sight.
I saw an advert for a "computational heating" product. You replace all your radiators with black boxes full of GPUs and an internet connection. You pay for the electricity to run them, and they heat your house.
There wasn't a great deal of information about exactly which computations would be running on them though...
LOL, the point at which you know it’s a bubble waiting to burst.
The bitcoin craziness has a hard limit when global power resources are insufficient to drive it. Could we be heading for global blackouts maybe ?
Is there not a limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined?
1 coin is produced every 10 minutes. The difficulty of producing a coin is directly proportional to the global resources being focussed to produce the next coin.So in theory the power resources being consumed should be around $100,000 per hour globally right now. As the price rises so does the marginal energy cost
Currently the reward is 12.5 coins every ten minutes not 1.
So the rational power consumption is 12.5 * 100,000$ at 12 cents/kw hr
I make that roughly 10 Gigawatts/hour is the rational electricity use for bitcoin globally right now.
Actually thats not an issue, I think it puts a hard cap on BTC at $80 Bn/Bitcoin though...
Which is why most of the malware on PCs now is Bitcoin miners, people are going to extraordinary lengths to make sure someone else pays for the electricity.
It's only a matter of time before the police raid a house with a bypassed meter that's full of computers - as someone works out that there's a better return on BTC mining than cannabis farming.
To make May seem competent and diplomatic in comparison ?
it just goes to show how toxic Brexit is. Leaving aside whether it was the right or wrong decision (note: it was the wrong one), it is an impossible task for any government. Dear god if Lab had the slightest sense they would ditch Jezza, wait for the B-word to destroy the Cons completely and march to a 300 seat majority.
Must be why the majority of Brits now think leaving the EU was the right decision. Remainers talking each other to confirm each others' prejudices doesn't change that.
At some point you obviously say: let's make a go of it. Totally understandable. I am in the camp of wanting the best possible Brexit and don't think we could or should rejoin.
But voting to Leave was of course the wrong decision.
If the best possible Brexit is indefinite purgatory within the single market and customs union, as now seems to be the direction of travel, is it not already apparent that it will have to be reversed at some point?
If we go through with Brexit on these terms, the UK will become a kind of non-state, strapped to the geopolitical operating table until its constituent parts re-establish their sovereignty within the EU.
Good grief. If Britain stays in the EU becoming a non-state is a certainty sooner or later. You do make a good case for not staying in the SM/CU indefinitely though - good thing that isn't government policy.
Government policy is 'constructively ambiguous', but the implications of the Irish border deal are very clear.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
I don’t know - in a way it feels like these negotiations need a hard deadline to make progress. The phase 1 deal would still be rumbling on if the deadline had been 01 January.
Is the unanimous vote a hard enough deadline? I think Ivan Rogers said in his evidence to one of the select committees that it would be trivial to get a small extension (weeks) from EU countries to finalise a deal.
Now I suspect the punters aren’t going to that detail - and I’m on the same side of the bet as you - I’m just less confident i think.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
The conditions say that we have to have left by 2019-03-29-2359 It's possible the final agreement says we leave a minute later? Looks like it could be a very contentious market.
"For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
I don’t know - in a way it feels like these negotiations need a hard deadline to make progress. The phase 1 deal would still be rumbling on if the deadline had been 01 January.
Is the unanimous vote a hard enough deadline? I think Ivan Rogers said in his evidence to one of the select committees that it would be trivial to get a small extension (weeks) from EU countries to finalise a deal.
Now I suspect the punters aren’t going to that detail - and I’m on the same side of the bet as you - I’m just less confident i think.
Weeks is trivial, months is not. If we extend by a few months we run into the next European Parliamentary Elections and the EU [quite reasonably] wants us out by then.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
I don’t know - in a way it feels like these negotiations need a hard deadline to make progress. The phase 1 deal would still be rumbling on if the deadline had been 01 January.
Is the unanimous vote a hard enough deadline? I think Ivan Rogers said in his evidence to one of the select committees that it would be trivial to get a small extension (weeks) from EU countries to finalise a deal.
Now I suspect the punters aren’t going to that detail - and I’m on the same side of the bet as you - I’m just less confident i think.
Weeks is trivial, months is not. If we extend by a few months we run into the next European Parliamentary Elections and the EU [quite reasonably] wants us out by then.
Ten minutes delay would be enough for the bet to be the loser.
That discrete audit found the CAP worked for the UK, which is obviously bonkers. It discredited the whole exercise. It made clear the whole thing was done by pro-EU civil servants seeking the conclusions they wanted to. Reminds me of the Yes, Minister line about independent inquiries being trains following the tracks you set before them.
It is not true to say that those reviews were uncritical of EU competences, however:
On fisheries: "Respondents to the call for evidence overwhelmingly considered that the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) had failed in the past to achieve key objectives, namely to successfully maintain fish stocks or provide an economically sustainable basis for the industry. Over the last ten years these failings have opened this policy up to significant debate on how well the UK’s national interest is served by the EU’s management of fisheries. The recent reforms, for which the UK Government pressed, are considered by many to have taken major steps to address the policy’s fundamental problems."
On agriculture: "However, respondents put forward evidence that, notwithstanding the reforms, the CAP’s objectives remained unclear and that the criteria for allocation of funding were irrational and disconnected from what the policy should be aiming to achieve. The majority of respondents argued that the CAP remains misdirected, cumbersome, costly and bureaucratic. Environmental organisations advanced detailed evidence about how historically, market intervention and direct payments had led to negative impacts on biodiversity and the farmed environment."
The drawing of overarching conclusions from all 32 x reports and re-negotiation priorities wasn't undertaken. I suspect due to the constraints of Coalition politics at the time.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
The conditions say that we have to have left by 2019-03-29-2359 It's possible the final agreement says we leave a minute later? Looks like it could be a very contentious market.
"For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
As the price gets higher, the more electricity you can throw at Bitcoins to mine profitably.
It is like a free market renewable heating initiative with no end in sight.
I saw an advert for a "computational heating" product. You replace all your radiators with black boxes full of GPUs and an internet connection. You pay for the electricity to run them, and they heat your house.
There wasn't a great deal of information about exactly which computations would be running on them though...
LOL, the point at which you know it’s a bubble waiting to burst.
The bitcoin craziness has a hard limit when global power resources are insufficient to drive it. Could we be heading for global blackouts maybe ?
Is there not a limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined?
1 coin is produced every 10 minutes. The difficulty of producing a coin is directly proportional to the global resources being focussed to produce the next coin.So in theory the power resources being consumed should be around $100,000 per hour globally right now. As the price rises so does the marginal energy cost
Currently the reward is 12.5 coins every ten minutes not 1.
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
The conditions say that we have to have left by 2019-03-29-2359 It's possible the final agreement says we leave a minute later? Looks like it could be a very contentious market.
"For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
Brexit is currently due to take place at 11pm.
Ah yes, midnight CET. A one hour delay is enough then, someone puts an amendment in the HoC that we should leave on our own time and the bet falls. I'm probably slightly in favour of your bet, but not putting money on this one myself.
As the price gets higher, the more electricity you can throw at Bitcoins to mine profitably.
It is like a free market renewable heating initiative with no end in sight.
I saw an advert for a "computational heating" product. You replace all your radiators with black boxes full of GPUs and an internet connection. You pay for the electricity to run them, and they heat your house.
There wasn't a great deal of information about exactly which computations would be running on them though...
LOL, the point at which you know it’s a bubble waiting to burst.
The bitcoin craziness has a hard limit when global power resources are insufficient to drive it. Could we be heading for global blackouts maybe ?
Is there not a limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined?
The administration of the bitcoin system is paid for by issuing bitcoin.
New bitcopin will need to be issued to keep the system operating.
As the price gets higher, the more electricity you can throw at Bitcoins to mine profitably.
It is like a free market renewable heating initiative with no end in sight.
I saw an advert for a "computational heating" product. You replace all your radiators with black boxes full of GPUs and an internet connection. You pay for the electricity to run them, and they heat your house.
There wasn't a great deal of information about exactly which computations would be running on them though...
LOL, the point at which you know it’s a bubble waiting to burst.
The bitcoin craziness has a hard limit when global power resources are insufficient to drive it. Could we be heading for global blackouts maybe ?
Is there not a limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined?
The administration of the bitcoin system is paid for by issuing bitcoin.
New bitcopin will need to be issued to keep the system operating.
Once the new bitcoin cap is reached won't it be paid for by transaction fees?
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
I guess it’s auite possible we will run out of time, the uK and EU will vote for an extra month or two before beginning the transition.
Oh absolutely it's possible. But more likely than not?
I don’t know - in a way it feels like these negotiations need a hard deadline to make progress. The phase 1 deal would still be rumbling on if the deadline had been 01 January.
Is the unanimous vote a hard enough deadline? I think Ivan Rogers said in his evidence to one of the select committees that it would be trivial to get a small extension (weeks) from EU countries to finalise a deal.
Now I suspect the punters aren’t going to that detail - and I’m on the same side of the bet as you - I’m just less confident i think.
Weeks is trivial, months is not. If we extend by a few months we run into the next European Parliamentary Elections and the EU [quite reasonably] wants us out by then.
Ten minutes delay would be enough for the bet to be the loser.
Indeed if the bet was by the end of March 2019 I'd be more confident.
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
You'd hope she'd read what she signed up to:
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
Mr. Sandpit, could you explain in layman's terms how Bitcoin and similar things work?
Here’s a reasonable summary, written a few months ago. https://www.thewrap.com/bitcoin-charges-towards-2000-what-the-hell-is-it/ It’s basically virtual currency, created by a network of computers churning through difficult maths problems - rather than by a government, central bank or other regulated authority.
At the moment it would be an absurd thing for any even slightly risk averse investor to purchase, but that need not remain the case forever. Over the next couple of years or so, it will likely either crash and become an irrelevance, or (less likely, but not inconceivably) be adopted as a consensus alternative asset a bit like gold.
The energy usage is perhaps a bit of a red herring too. If the whole scheme continues to hold value, the hard limit on the total number of bitcoins will see some sort of equilibrium reached as the current mining mania dissipates. Derivatives trading, where the transaction cost is far less, will greatly exceed actual Bitcoin trading which will be conducted in large parcels by institutions.
Bitcoin’s great victory will be when institutions start having to hold it as part of a balanced risk portfolio.
Here's a discussion of trading bitcoin options. They're the easiest way to bet on an asset. But the conclusion seems to be that at present this isn't, er, an option:
City Index offers spread betting on bitcoin. That's excessively exciting for most people because of the downside risk.
"One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes."
A reminder about bubbles in a Guardian ediorial a while back at
Mr. Sandpit, could you explain in layman's terms how Bitcoin and similar things work?
Here’s a reasonable summary, written a few months ago. https://www.thewrap.com/bitcoin-charges-towards-2000-what-the-hell-is-it/ It’s basically virtual currency, created by a network of computers churning through difficult maths problems - rather than by a government, central bank or other regulated authority.
At the moment it would be an absurd thing for any even slightly risk averse investor to purchase, but that need not remain the case forever. Over the next couple of years or so, it will likely either crash and become an irrelevance, or (less likely, but not inconceivably) be adopted as a consensus alternative asset a bit like gold.
The energy usage is perhaps a bit of a red herring too. If the whole scheme continues to hold value, the hard limit on the total number of bitcoins will see some sort of equilibrium reached as the current mining mania dissipates. Derivatives trading, where the transaction cost is far less, will greatly exceed actual Bitcoin trading which will be conducted in large parcels by institutions.
Bitcoin’s great victory will be when institutions start having to hold it as part of a balanced risk portfolio.
Here's a discussion of trading bitcoin options. They're the easiest way to bet on an asset. But the conclusion seems to be that at present this isn't, er, an option:
City Index offers spread betting on bitcoin. That's excessively exciting for most people because of the downside risk.
"One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes."
A reminder about bubbles in a Guardian ediorial a while back at
One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes."
A reminder about bubbles in a Guardian ediorial a while back at
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
You'd hope she'd read what she signed up to:
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
So Mrs May is either a liar or just plain incompetent?
Mr. Sandpit, could you explain in layman's terms how Bitcoin and similar things work?
Here’s a reasonable summary, written a few months ago. https://www.thewrap.com/bitcoin-charges-towards-2000-what-the-hell-is-it/ It’s basically virtual currency, created by a network of computers churning through difficult maths problems - rather than by a government, central bank or other regulated authority.
At the moment it would be an absurd thing for any even slightly risk averse investor to purchase, but that need not remain the case forever. Over the next couple of years or so, it will likely either crash and become an irrelevance, or (less likely, but not inconceivably) be adopted as a consensus alternative asset a bit like gold.
The energy usage is perhaps a bit of a red herring too. If the whole scheme continues to hold value, the hard limit on the total number of bitcoins will see some sort of equilibrium reached as the current mining mania dissipates. Derivatives trading, where the transaction cost is far less, will greatly exceed actual Bitcoin trading which will be conducted in large parcels by institutions.
Bitcoin’s great victory will be when institutions start having to hold it as part of a balanced risk portfolio.
Here's a discussion of trading bitcoin options. They're the easiest way to bet on an asset. But the conclusion seems to be that at present this isn't, er, an option:
City Index offers spread betting on bitcoin. That's excessively exciting for most people because of the downside risk.
"One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes."
A reminder about bubbles in a Guardian ediorial a while back at
One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes."
A reminder about bubbles in a Guardian ediorial a while back at
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
You'd hope she'd read what she signed up to:
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
We need to be mining more fudge to keep this show on the road, rather than bitcoins.
That discrete audit found the CAP worked for the UK, which is obviously bonkers. It discredited the whole exercise. It made clear the whole thing was done by pro-EU civil servants seeking the conclusions they wanted to. Reminds me of the Yes, Minister line about independent inquiries being trains following the tracks you set before them.
“Obviously bonkers” was your conclusion of your professional audit? Or just from perusing Daily Telegraph headlines?
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
You'd hope she'd read what she signed up to:
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
So Mrs May is either a liar or just plain incompetent?
It is technically an option since it isn't an enforceable agreement (and indeed I'm wryly amused by all the textual deconstruction of a document that will only be tried in the court of public opinion - shades of the Coalition Agreement all over again). But what it would do for Britain's international credibility to rat in this way is easy to see.
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
You'd hope she'd read what she signed up to:
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
So Mrs May is either a liar or just plain incompetent?
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
Labour will not go into C&S arrangement with Tories.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
Labour will not go into C&S arrangement with Tories.
Well they won't get SNP backing and the LDs support won't be enough either so either they take Tory confidence and supply or Sturgeon stays First Minister.
Though as there would still be a unionist majority it would still be the end of indyref2 talk either way
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
Labour will not go into C&S arrangement with Tories.
Well they won't get SNP backing and the LDs support won't be enough either so either they take Tory confidence and supply or Sturgeon stays First Minister.
Though as there would still be a unionist majority it would still be the end of indyref2 talk either way
Yes, some sort of anti-SNP coalition might work - they wouldn't all agree on much on the way of domestic legislation but they could put the constitutional issues to bed for an actual generation.
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
Labour will not go into C&S arrangement with Tories.
Well they won't get SNP backing and the LDs support won't be enough either so either they take Tory confidence and supply or Sturgeon stays First Minister.
Though as there would still be a unionist majority it would still be the end of indyref2 talk either way
Yes, some sort of anti-SNP coalition might work - they wouldn't all agree on much on the way of domestic legislation but they could put the constitutional issues to bed for an actual generation.
Yes, either Sturgeon drops indyref2 talk completely or the Tories refuse to support her, the Tories would determine whether Sturgeon or Leonard became First Minister.
Ironically on current polls the SNP could pick the next UK PM and the Tories the next Scottish First Minister.
Yup. If "alternative cheaper food" was available we would already be eating it. A lot of farmers and processors and producers are already making theadbare margins, and the big supermarkets are being beaten to death by Aldi and Lidl.
What is it with these dipshit Tory Brexit loons? They claim to be the party that represents business and industry. Then when business and industry sets out the facts they say "no you have got that wrong about your industry"
He made more sense when he was looking like an absolute cock trying to sing along to the Welsh national anthem with that idiot look on his idiot face.
That discrete audit found the CAP worked for the UK, which is obviously bonkers. It discredited the whole exercise. It made clear the whole thing was done by pro-EU civil servants seeking the conclusions they wanted to. Reminds me of the Yes, Minister line about independent inquiries being trains following the tracks you set before them.
“Obviously bonkers” was your conclusion of your professional audit? Or just from perusing Daily Telegraph headlines?
That discrete audit found the CAP worked for the UK, which is obviously bonkers. It discredited the whole exercise. It made clear the whole thing was done by pro-EU civil servants seeking the conclusions they wanted to. Reminds me of the Yes, Minister line about independent inquiries being trains following the tracks you set before them.
“Obviously bonkers” was your conclusion of your professional audit? Or just from perusing Daily Telegraph headlines?
No, the damaging effects of the CAP are from reading papers by the Overseas Development Institute, the European Trade Study Group and others. But thank you for your useful contribution to the debate.
Yup. If "alternative cheaper food" was available we would already be eating it. A lot of farmers and processors and producers are already making theadbare margins, and the big supermarkets are being beaten to death by Aldi and Lidl.
What is it with these dipshit Tory Brexit loons? They claim to be the party that represents business and industry. Then when business and industry sets out the facts they say "no you have got that wrong about your industry"
He made more sense when he was looking like an absolute cock trying to sing along to the Welsh national anthem with that idiot look on his idiot face.
Presumably sourcing other food from around the world refers to places where land and labour prices are a lot cheaper. I don't like Redwood and don't care for his Thatcherism, yet we have here another example of how corrosive the Corbyn left is to modern political debate.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
ABC News quotes police sources as saying that a possible pipe bomb was detonated in a passageway below ground at the terminal.
One person is in custody, according to cable networks.
CBS local news is saying one injured person who is believed to be the person in custody. Unconfirmed claims he had two devices on in him and one partially detonated prematurely.
A good day for me to WFH I think.
Just announced: Suspect reported to be a white man in his 20s
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
ABC News quotes police sources as saying that a possible pipe bomb was detonated in a passageway below ground at the terminal.
One person is in custody, according to cable networks.
CBS local news is saying one injured person who is believed to be the person in custody. Unconfirmed claims he had two devices on in him and one partially detonated prematurely.
A good day for me to WFH I think.
Just announced: Suspect reported to be a white man in his 20s
CBS now reporting device may have been a bomb vest. Sounds like the suspect tried to detonate it but only detonator went off. Suspect possibly from Brooklyn.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
The Tories have played a blinder in the South on boundaries. Take a town, any town and wrap enough countryside around it to make it Tory. Doesn't matter how odd the boundary is.
That's how they get almost 100% of the seats with lest than 50% of the vote.
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
You wrote exactly the same thing yesterday. D'ye think the concept of arch Corbynite Leonard going into a c & s arrangement with the Tories in Scotland has gained value over 24 hrs?
I suppose the end of the 'Ruth for FM' bollox is a relief.
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
You wrote exactly the same thing yesterday. D'ye think the concept of arch Corbynite Leonard going to go into a c & s arrangement with the Tories in Scotland has gained value over 24 hrs?
I reckon the chances of that happening are on a par with Kezia being the next first minister.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
In the case of Maidstone, the Tories also benefit from the fact that some of the suburbs of Maidstone are in the Faversham seat
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
You wrote exactly the same thing yesterday. D'ye think the concept of arch Corbynite Leonard going to go into a c & s arrangement with the Tories in Scotland has gained value over 24 hrs?
I reckon the chances of that happening are on a par with Kezia being the next first minister.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
The Tories have played a blinder in the South on boundaries. Take a town, any town and wrap enough countryside around it to make it Tory. Doesn't matter how odd the boundary is.
That's how they get almost 100% of the seats with lest than 50% of the vote.
Great idea - except the Tories no more set the boundaries than Labour do. In fact the last time the boundaries were changed was when Labour were in power.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I agree.
One of the things I remember from May 2010 was senior Labour people publicly saying that there'd be an outrage if Labour tried to take power after finishing comfortably second in the popular vote and seats.
Mirrored at Holyrood that would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority and Richard Leonard would likely become First Minister with Tory and LD confidence and supply. That would finally kill off indyref2 for a generation
You wrote exactly the same thing yesterday. D'ye think the concept of arch Corbynite Leonard going into a c & s arrangement with the Tories in Scotland has gained value over 24 hrs?
I suppose the end of the 'Ruth for FM' bollox is a relief.
I sense the prospect of Richard & Ruth would be highlighted and influence a few votes !
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I agree.
One of the things I remember from May 2010 was senior Labour people publicly saying that there'd be an outrage if Labour tried to take power after finishing comfortably second in the popular vote and seats.
Has Jeremy Corbyn commented on his sister party in New Zealand ?
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd have thought if the numbers were say equal then the Tories would prop up Labour rather than the SNP ? Constitutionally the parties are much closer.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd expect the Tories would abstain on a choice between Labour and the SNP. If Labour (in conjunction with the Lib Dems if they team up) have more seats then they get in, if the SNP have more seats then they do.
The Tories won't prop up the second or third-largest party against the largest.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd have thought if the numbers were say equal then the Tories would prop up Labour rather than the SNP ? Constitutionally the parties are much closer.
Economically the Tories are closer to the SNP - plus the constitutional issues are nul and void if the SNP are relying upon the Tories to get to a majority, hence why there was no referendum the 2007 Parliament.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd expect the Tories would abstain on a choice between Labour and the SNP. If Labour (in conjunction with the Lib Dems if they team up) have more seats then they get in, if the SNP have more seats then they do.
The Tories won't prop up the second or third-largest party against the largest.
Based on today's poll SNP+ Greens = 60 out of 129 seats
ABC News quotes police sources as saying that a possible pipe bomb was detonated in a passageway below ground at the terminal.
One person is in custody, according to cable networks.
CBS local news is saying one injured person who is believed to be the person in custody. Unconfirmed claims he had two devices on in him and one partially detonated prematurely.
A good day for me to WFH I think.
Just announced: Suspect reported to be a white man in his 20s
CBS now reporting device may have been a bomb vest. Sounds like the suspect tried to detonate it but only detonator went off. Suspect possibly from Brooklyn.
FOX appear to have specifics. Isis inspired, suspect been in US for 7 years, bangleshi.
Again it look like good job these terrorists are a bit shit.
ABC News quotes police sources as saying that a possible pipe bomb was detonated in a passageway below ground at the terminal.
One person is in custody, according to cable networks.
CBS local news is saying one injured person who is believed to be the person in custody. Unconfirmed claims he had two devices on in him and one partially detonated prematurely.
A good day for me to WFH I think.
Just announced: Suspect reported to be a white man in his 20s
CBS now reporting device may have been a bomb vest. Sounds like the suspect tried to detonate it but only detonator went off. Suspect possibly from Brooklyn.
FOX appear to have specifics. Isis inspired, suspect been in US for 7 years, bangleshi.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd expect the Tories would abstain on a choice between Labour and the SNP. If Labour (in conjunction with the Lib Dems if they team up) have more seats then they get in, if the SNP have more seats then they do.
The Tories won't prop up the second or third-largest party against the largest.
Based on today's poll SNP+ Greens = 60 out of 129 seats
I forgot the SNP would get the Greens. I'm guessing that would be enough with the Tories abstaining.
Well, I've been abroad for several days (Cornwall) and have just caught up with the Brexit fun and games. It seems that we're heading for EU membership without the voting rights. While this is infinitely preferable to cliff-fall Brexit, it does bring into focus what a pointless exercise the whole Brexit thing has turned out to be. Also, what a pair of miserable, gutless little creeps Boris and Gove are. I loathe Farage, but at least he has the strength of his convictions. That pair should resign. Instead they're pretending they've played a blinder when in fact all they've stood for has gone up in smoke. Pathetic!
Well, I've been abroad for several days (Cornwall) and have just caught up with the Brexit fun and games. It seems that we're heading for EU membership without the voting rights. While this is infinitely preferable to cliff-fall Brexit, it does bring into focus what a pointless exercise the whole Brexit thing has turned out to be. Also, what a pair of miserable, gutless little creeps Boris and Gove are. I loathe Farage, but at least he has the strength of his convictions. That pair should resign. Instead they're pretending they've played a blinder when in fact all they've stood for has gone up in smoke. Pathetic!
Except neither side are aiming for that. I think Barnier himself said a Canada-like deal was the most likely outcome.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
I'd expect the Tories would abstain on a choice between Labour and the SNP. If Labour (in conjunction with the Lib Dems if they team up) have more seats then they get in, if the SNP have more seats then they do.
The Tories won't prop up the second or third-largest party against the largest.
Based on today's poll SNP+ Greens = 60 out of 129 seats
I forgot the SNP would get the Greens. I'm guessing that would be enough with the Tories abstaining.
That discrete audit found the CAP worked for the UK, which is obviously bonkers. It discredited the whole exercise. It made clear the whole thing was done by pro-EU civil servants seeking the conclusions they wanted to. Reminds me of the Yes, Minister line about independent inquiries being trains following the tracks you set before them.
I am not surprised. Bloody moaning farmers, forever guzzling subsidies. Then they vote Brexit because, guess what, the subsidy forms are "too complicated".
After the vote, they want UK government to guarantee that they will not lose out. Oh, yeah !
Anybody who has been to port authority in nyc, a successful suicide attack would have resulted in huge number of casualties.
It appears the suspect was walking through one of the Subway's connecting pedestrian tunnels when the device detonated (possibly prematurely) rather than in the PABT itself. We're still talking about places that are very densely packed with people at rush hour though.
I'd have thought that if Holyrood ended up next time round with the SNP as largest party, they'd end up heading a minority government, just as they did in 2007.
When the Annabel Goldie's Tories propped up the SNP?
More likely Labour or the Lib Dems this time around.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
The Scottish Lib Dems were all set to coalition agreement with the SNP in 2007 but central office but the kibosh on that. Since then they are implacably opposed.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
The Tories have played a blinder in the South on boundaries. Take a town, any town and wrap enough countryside around it to make it Tory. Doesn't matter how odd the boundary is.
That's how they get almost 100% of the seats with lest than 50% of the vote.
Great idea - except the Tories no more set the boundaries than Labour do. In fact the last time the boundaries were changed was when Labour were in power.
So I would suggest you are talking rubbish.
You are wrong. Boundaries can be influenced by lobbying at a local level, building as they do on wards. Tories very organised in past.
I'd say probably no. TMay looks more secure than she has been since GE17 though maybe DGreen could be in trouble. If he has to quit as TMay's deputy then hard to see him staying in the Commons.
Unlikely his wife would let him. All those nubile journalists......
Ashord lowest Tory majority in recent times was the 5000+ ion 1997. The fight there is for second place. Lab, LD and UKIP all been there in recent years, so can’t really see it as ‘interesting'.
You are quite right looking at the numbers. But that is a part of the south east where Labour is stronger than it looks. It isn't that far from Hastings which was very nearly an upset in June and Canterbury that actually was one.
Lab have some pockets of strength in Ashford town but the constituency has a lot more rural territory than Hastings. It is massively oversized and so will look better for Lab after the next boundary review (whenever that is), although still fairly safe Con.
There are a number of Tory safe seats in Kent and Sussex that would be marginals if it was not for the villages, Folkestone, Maidstone and Tonbridge and Worthing for example. It was the villages which ensured they stayed Tory in 1997 even as several other Kent and Sussex seats went Labour or LD
The Tories have played a blinder in the South on boundaries. Take a town, any town and wrap enough countryside around it to make it Tory. Doesn't matter how odd the boundary is.
That's how they get almost 100% of the seats with lest than 50% of the vote.
Great idea - except the Tories no more set the boundaries than Labour do. In fact the last time the boundaries were changed was when Labour were in power.
So I would suggest you are talking rubbish.
You are wrong. Boundaries can be influenced by lobbying at a local level, building as they do on wards. Tories very organised in past.
The boundary commission are biased? The strange borders probably come from the +-5% figure.
Well, I've been abroad for several days (Cornwall) and have just caught up with the Brexit fun and games. It seems that we're heading for EU membership without the voting rights. While this is infinitely preferable to cliff-fall Brexit, it does bring into focus what a pointless exercise the whole Brexit thing has turned out to be. Also, what a pair of miserable, gutless little creeps Boris and Gove are. I loathe Farage, but at least he has the strength of his convictions. That pair should resign. Instead they're pretending they've played a blinder when in fact all they've stood for has gone up in smoke. Pathetic!
Except neither side are aiming for that. I think Barnier himself said a Canada-like deal was the most likely outcome.
We've got 20 years* of remainers saying every bit of good news is because we haven't left as much as a straw man told them we would leave.
Comments
It's not even a surprise.
I make that roughly 10 Gigawatts/hour is the rational electricity use for bitcoin globally right now.
Actually thats not an issue, I think it puts a hard cap on BTC at $80 Bn/Bitcoin though...
I have been pretty busy for some time and I went back onto Betfair expecting to see some radical market movements, especially after Friday's news. I logged onto the Betfair "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" market, expecting to see Yes heavy favourite. Instead, I was able to back Yes at 2.4.
Now I appreciate this is a thin market. But still. I can't see how Yes is odds against or even close.
It's only a matter of time before the police raid a house with a bypassed meter that's full of computers - as someone works out that there's a better return on BTC mining than cannabis farming.
Is the unanimous vote a hard enough deadline?
I think Ivan Rogers said in his evidence to one of the select committees that it would be trivial to get a small extension (weeks) from EU countries to finalise a deal.
Now I suspect the punters aren’t going to that detail - and I’m on the same side of the bet as you - I’m just less confident i think.
It's possible the final agreement says we leave a minute later? Looks like it could be a very contentious market.
"For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
On fisheries: "Respondents to the call for evidence overwhelmingly considered that the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) had failed in the past to achieve key objectives, namely to successfully maintain fish stocks or provide an economically sustainable basis for the industry. Over the last ten years these failings have opened this policy up to significant debate on how well the UK’s national interest is served by the EU’s management of fisheries. The recent reforms, for which the UK Government pressed, are considered by many to have taken major steps to address the policy’s fundamental problems."
On agriculture: "However, respondents put forward evidence that, notwithstanding the reforms, the CAP’s objectives remained unclear and that the criteria for allocation of funding were irrational and disconnected from what the policy should be aiming to achieve. The majority of respondents argued that the CAP remains misdirected, cumbersome, costly and bureaucratic. Environmental organisations advanced detailed evidence about how historically, market intervention and direct payments had led to negative impacts on biodiversity and the farmed environment."
The drawing of overarching conclusions from all 32 x reports and re-negotiation priorities wasn't undertaken. I suspect due to the constraints of Coalition politics at the time.
New bitcopin will need to be issued to keep the system operating.
When will May step down/be removed as Conservatives Leader
2019 or later 10/11
Q1 2018 9/2
Q3 2018 11/2
Q2 2018 11/2
Q4 2018 6/1
December 2017 33/1
and..
Year May is Replaced as Conservatives Leader
2018 5/6
2019 5/2
2017 5/1
2020 or later 15/2
Apart from the 2017 departure, the second market looks far more generous
First to Happen - Brexit/May to Leave?
May to leave office of PM 1.54 (8/15)
The UK to leave the EU 2.56 (8/5)
The value looks to be on the odds against side of the bet, but I'm not playing this particular market.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/11/britain-will-not-pay-penny-leave-european-union-no-deal-theresa/
Britain will not pay its agreed £39 billion bill to leave the European Union if a trade deal cannot be agreed, Theresa May has told her MPs.
The Prime Minister said in a letter to her parliamentary party: “The Government has said that we are a country that honours its obligations, and that is what we will do.
“We have agreed a fair settlement of commitments we have made while a member of the EU, in the spirit of our future partnership.
“It depends upon a broader agreement being reached – as I have said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – so if there is no agreement then our offer also falls away.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/dec/11/excitement-as-huntingtons-drug-shown-to-slow-progress-of-devastating-disease
Easy to lose sight of this stuff - but this is real news.
"46 The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom."
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/940169058988822529
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/11/bae-lands-5bn-typhoon-sale-qatar-will-affect-future-deals/
Though as there would still be a unionist majority it would still be the end of indyref2 talk either way
Ironically on current polls the SNP could pick the next UK PM and the Tories the next Scottish First Minister.
What is it with these dipshit Tory Brexit loons? They claim to be the party that represents business and industry. Then when business and industry sets out the facts they say "no you have got that wrong about your industry"
He made more sense when he was looking like an absolute cock trying to sing along to the Welsh national anthem with that idiot look on his idiot face.
https://twitter.com/maturefinancier/status/741894396765966336
One person is in custody, according to cable networks.
http://electomania.es/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Sin-título-1.png
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/940197569669533696
prematurely.
A good day for me to WFH I think.
Just announced: Suspect reported to be a white man in his 20s
That's how they get almost 100% of the seats with lest than 50% of the vote.
I suppose the end of the 'Ruth for FM' bollox is a relief.
So I would suggest you are talking rubbish.
But with a Labour-led minority government looking just as unlikely to attract natural partners as an SNP-led minority government, surely the larger party would get the gig. It might be very unstable though.
One of the things I remember from May 2010 was senior Labour people publicly saying that there'd be an outrage if Labour tried to take power after finishing comfortably second in the popular vote and seats.
Constitutionally the parties are much closer.
The Tories won't prop up the second or third-largest party against the largest.
Again it look like good job these terrorists are a bit shit.
What would Labour and Lib Dems have?
https://twitter.com/CalumMND/status/940223081800400903
After the vote, they want UK government to guarantee that they will not lose out. Oh, yeah !
Guy walking along, explosion, big cloud, just him lying on ground. Definitely premature explosion.
* at least.
Bringing 19th century social norms to the 21st century Saudi Arabia.