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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    You're still assuming Tezza's off before the next election... I think she'll stay, just a hunch.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Yeah, but after an election she can legitimately say it's someone else's turn, unless she becomes FM.
    But her USP is that she's the Hammer of the Nats No To Indy Lady that Rides Tanks.

    Being the 3rd Place Behind Unelectable Labour Liberal Immigration Policy Lady That Rides Tanks doesn't seem like a future leader to me.
    I dunno, the Tories are still tainted in Scotland, so I wouldn't blame her for not becoming FM after the next Scottish election.
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    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    You're still assuming Tezza's off before the next election... I think she'll stay, just a hunch.
    Hi Ben - stranger things have happened
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    Great Escape
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    That reminds me of a strong contender for nutter of the week:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/12/richard-tice-this-negotiation-was-our-isandlwana-now-lets-have-a-rorkes-drift.html

    ...The likes of Peter Lilley, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Jones and Dominic Raab should be brought in to do both the detail and the negotiations. They have the courage, corporate experience and legal knowledge to make the right judgements and demonstrate strong leadership. Never again should we rely so heavily on civil servants for such a critical negotiation of the national interest.

    Such a move would make the EU realise that we are not going to be pushed over, bullied or trapped into a bad deal. Such a move would bring confidence to our own supporters that we had the right people doing the job.

    Our own negotiators’ Rorke’s Drift is there for the taking. Lets take it.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    If snow is all that is required for a film to be a Christmas film, then surely Fargo is the best Christmas film.

    After all, Jesus was a carpenter, and woodchippers feature prominently in the film. It also features a heavily pregnant woman ...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    nah Kick Ass
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    That's too far in the future. The opportunities to become party leader, yet alone PM, occur rarely, and anyone desiring the job has to ensure they are positioned correctly and have support at the right time. If you stick your nose over the parapet too early, then competitors will take aim at you.

    IMO this is also why Boris won't be PM. He got the timing wrong, and he's a prominent target for others in the party who want it. And thank God for that.

    I'd also expect more of the 2010/5/7 (though there are precious few of the latter) new Conservative intake to be coveting the role by 2021. Some of the people we think of as front-runners now will be yesterday's men by then.
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited December 2017

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    That reminds me of a strong contender for nutter of the week:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/12/richard-tice-this-negotiation-was-our-isandlwana-now-lets-have-a-rorkes-drift.html

    ...The likes of Peter Lilley, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Jones and Dominic Raab should be brought in to do both the detail and the negotiations. They have the courage, corporate experience and legal knowledge to make the right judgements and demonstrate strong leadership. Never again should we rely so heavily on civil servants for such a critical negotiation of the national interest.

    Such a move would make the EU realise that we are not going to be pushed over, bullied or trapped into a bad deal. Such a move would bring confidence to our own supporters that we had the right people doing the job.

    Our own negotiators’ Rorke’s Drift is there for the taking. Lets take it.
    Whatever you post, I get a Smiths song playing in my head......
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    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    That's too far in the future. The opportunities to become party leader, yet alone PM, occur rarely, and anyone desiring the job has to ensure they are positioned correctly and have support at the right time. If you stick your nose over the parapet too early, then competitors will take aim at you.

    IMO this is also why Boris won't be PM. He got the timing wrong, and he's a prominent target for others in the party who want it. And thank God for that.

    I'd also expect more of the 2010/5/7 (though there are precious few of the latter) new Conservative intake to be coveting the role by 2021. Some of the people we think of as front-runners now will be yesterday's men by then.
    I agree with this and the longer May stays in post the more likely
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,300
    edited December 2017
    image ,
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If snow is all that is required for a film to be a Christmas film, then surely Fargo is the best Christmas film.

    After all, Jesus was a carpenter, and woodchippers feature prominently in the film. It also features a heavily pregnant woman ...

    https://twitter.com/ids_not/status/939807291188109312
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303
    edited December 2017
    Alistair said:

    Re: Alabama

    After a state supreme court verdict today the votes will be destroyed after the vote count, zero ability to perform a manual recount.

    This from the state where the people.who over see elections don't think I should be easy to vote and who formulated voting procedures to make it hard for Black's to vote.

    At what point does the Senate just refuse to seat the winner? Presumably at the point that there is a Democratic majority, which of course there isn't at the moment. Shameful really doesn't cover this.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Re: Alabama

    After a state supreme court verdict today the votes will be destroyed after the vote count, zero ability to perform a manual recount.

    This from the state where the people.who over see elections don't think I should be easy to vote and who formulated voting procedures to make it hard for Black's to vote.

    At what point does the Senate just refuse to seat the winner? Presumably at the point that there is a Democratic majority, which of course there isn't at the moment. Shameful really doesn't cover this.
    SCOTUS ruled some years ago that elected officials can only be refused to be seated if they are unqualified for the office, e.g. for US Senators are under 35 etc. This is different from being expelled, but there is a process that would have to be followed for that.
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    Scott_P said:
    Last sentence unnecessary but of course Rigby and Islam have their own agenda
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    On-topic:

    Hang on, are we supposed to be taking polling seriously now?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Re: Alabama

    After a state supreme court verdict today the votes will be destroyed after the vote count, zero ability to perform a manual recount.

    This from the state where the people.who over see elections don't think I should be easy to vote and who formulated voting procedures to make it hard for Black's to vote.

    At what point does the Senate just refuse to seat the winner? Presumably at the point that there is a Democratic majority, which of course there isn't at the moment. Shameful really doesn't cover this.
    SCOTUS ruled some years ago that elected officials can only be refused to be seated if they are unqualified for the office, e.g. for US Senators are under 35 etc. This is different from being expelled, but there is a process that would have to be followed for that.
    Roy Moore is like a Hollywood liberal's parody of a Republican - only he's real.

    Then you read about his rallies, and the stuff his defenders say on his behalf, and it sounds like a parody of conservative beliefs - but it's real.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    On-topic:

    Hang on, are we supposed to be taking polling seriously now?

    Quoting verbatim from the PB Tory handbook:

    Tories lead = polls are correct
    Labour lead = polls are wrong

    :D
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303
    edited December 2017

    On-topic:

    Hang on, are we supposed to be taking polling seriously now?

    Apparently. If we were it would probably be worth pointing out a fair bit of the sample in these polls was probably taken before news broke of May's "triumph" and other apparent good news for the government which may or may not have impinged in public consciousness. This just might be the start of a trend.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    On-topic:

    Hang on, are we supposed to be taking polling seriously now?

    Quoting verbatim from the PB Tory handbook:

    Tories lead = polls are correct
    Labour lead = polls are wrong

    :D
    But we are all PB Tories now, comrade!
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    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Re: Alabama

    After a state supreme court verdict today the votes will be destroyed after the vote count, zero ability to perform a manual recount.

    This from the state where the people.who over see elections don't think I should be easy to vote and who formulated voting procedures to make it hard for Black's to vote.

    At what point does the Senate just refuse to seat the winner? Presumably at the point that there is a Democratic majority, which of course there isn't at the moment. Shameful really doesn't cover this.
    SCOTUS ruled some years ago that elected officials can only be refused to be seated if they are unqualified for the office, e.g. for US Senators are under 35 etc. This is different from being expelled, but there is a process that would have to be followed for that.
    Roy Moore is like a Hollywood liberal's parody of a Republican - only he's real.

    Then you read about his rallies, and the stuff his defenders say on his behalf, and it sounds like a parody of conservative beliefs - but it's real.
    I remember reading this story about Strom Thurmond from the 50s.

    Reporter: There's allegations that Senator Thurmond slept with underage black servant girls.

    Thurmond supporter: No way, he'd never sleep with a n*gger
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    The Muppet Christmas Carol. Anyone who says other wise is a Muppet...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303
    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Re: Alabama

    After a state supreme court verdict today the votes will be destroyed after the vote count, zero ability to perform a manual recount.

    This from the state where the people.who over see elections don't think I should be easy to vote and who formulated voting procedures to make it hard for Black's to vote.

    At what point does the Senate just refuse to seat the winner? Presumably at the point that there is a Democratic majority, which of course there isn't at the moment. Shameful really doesn't cover this.
    SCOTUS ruled some years ago that elected officials can only be refused to be seated if they are unqualified for the office, e.g. for US Senators are under 35 etc. This is different from being expelled, but there is a process that would have to be followed for that.
    Roy Moore is like a Hollywood liberal's parody of a Republican - only he's real.

    Then you read about his rallies, and the stuff his defenders say on his behalf, and it sounds like a parody of conservative beliefs - but it's real.
    Now that's completely unfair. His wife was only just pointing out that they have a Jewish attorney. How much more evidence can you need that he fundamentally sound?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    DavidL said:

    On-topic:

    Hang on, are we supposed to be taking polling seriously now?

    Apparently. If we were it would probably be worth pointing out a fair bit of the sample in these polls was probably taken before news broke of May's "triumph" and other apparent good news for the government which may or may not have impinged in public consciousness. This just might be the start of a trend.
    Or it might just be noise in the data.

    The last GE showed the problems of taking current polling as being accurate, or as any predictor. And yesterday's thread about tonight's vote shows that some pollsters are going to be very wrong.

    I sometimes think pollsters could just save money and use an RNG for LOLs instead.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    New thread
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    The Muppet Christmas Carol. Anyone who says other wise is a Muppet...
    And their name is not Michael Caine.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    The best Christmas film is Zulu.

    That reminds me of a strong contender for nutter of the week:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/12/richard-tice-this-negotiation-was-our-isandlwana-now-lets-have-a-rorkes-drift.html

    ...The likes of Peter Lilley, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Jones and Dominic Raab should be brought in to do both the detail and the negotiations. They have the courage, corporate experience and legal knowledge to make the right judgements and demonstrate strong leadership. Never again should we rely so heavily on civil servants for such a critical negotiation of the national interest.

    Such a move would make the EU realise that we are not going to be pushed over, bullied or trapped into a bad deal. Such a move would bring confidence to our own supporters that we had the right people doing the job.

    Our own negotiators’ Rorke’s Drift is there for the taking. Lets take it.
    Whatever you post, I get a Smiths song playing in my head......
    Panic?
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    NEW THREAD

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    NEW THREAD

    Too slow :p
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    That's too far in the future. The opportunities to become party leader, yet alone PM, occur rarely, and anyone desiring the job has to ensure they are positioned correctly and have support at the right time. If you stick your nose over the parapet too early, then competitors will take aim at you.

    IMO this is also why Boris won't be PM. He got the timing wrong, and he's a prominent target for others in the party who want it. And thank God for that.

    I'd also expect more of the 2010/5/7 (though there are precious few of the latter) new Conservative intake to be coveting the role by 2021. Some of the people we think of as front-runners now will be yesterday's men by then.
    Spot on. (Although I wouldn't have been as fearful of Boris)
    2021 seems the sensible date for the Tories. 2022 GE with May in charge isn't now entirely impossible.

    Sometimes in politics you fear that your opposition might achieve power because they then might be able to build a case for their views. The Tories had that in 1997, and Blair actually did justify those fears. Mostly though politics is about time and individuals. Boris gets to do stuff he likes because the Tories are in power. Very rarely there may be situations where it's feared that the alternative might be real and lasting damage to our nation. Corbyn, despite his popularity, seems to me to be entirely that. I presume that the Tory party will view him similarly. He's so bad that the usual idea that letting Labour have a run in government and that they will fail is unthinkable. As above the Blair years (mostly) hurt, the Brown years just undermined Labour, but the Corbyn years will be unthinkable for all of us.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Post 2021 by the looks so not next pm
    That's too far in the future. The opportunities to become party leader, yet alone PM, occur rarely, and anyone desiring the job has to ensure they are positioned correctly and have support at the right time. If you stick your nose over the parapet too early, then competitors will take aim at you.

    IMO this is also why Boris won't be PM. He got the timing wrong, and he's a prominent target for others in the party who want it. And thank God for that.

    I'd also expect more of the 2010/5/7 (though there are precious few of the latter) new Conservative intake to be coveting the role by 2021. Some of the people we think of as front-runners now will be yesterday's men by then.
    Spot on. (Although I wouldn't have been as fearful of Boris)
    2021 seems the sensible date for the Tories. 2022 GE with May in charge isn't now entirely impossible.

    Sometimes in politics you fear that your opposition might achieve power because they then might be able to build a case for their views. The Tories had that in 1997, and Blair actually did justify those fears. Mostly though politics is about time and individuals. Boris gets to do stuff he likes because the Tories are in power. Very rarely there may be situations where it's feared that the alternative might be real and lasting damage to our nation. Corbyn, despite his popularity, seems to me to be entirely that. I presume that the Tory party will view him similarly. He's so bad that the usual idea that letting Labour have a run in government and that they will fail is unthinkable. As above the Blair years (mostly) hurt, the Brown years just undermined Labour, but the Corbyn years will be unthinkable for all of us.
    I think you're right.

    As for Boris: I don't personally dislike him: clowns are hard to dislike. But I think that things in his personal life (not the least the Guppy incident), and his behaviour as mayor (e.g. the Garden Bridge debacle) show that he should be nowhere near power.
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    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should change the betting for next leader and pm
    Haven't read the article but I'll be interested to see what time frame/events she is looking for.

    Buggering off from Scotland before the SNP are defeated will look totes bad.
    Once the mind worm hatches in her head that tells her that she can even more effectively fight the Nats & keep the Union together as PM, her ego will take over. Probably already hatched in fact.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Apparently the first Alabama exit polls will be out soon.
This discussion has been closed.