Jones leading by 10,000. Remaining votes: Montgomery - 45% Dem lead, 28700 pickup Jefferson - 40% Dem lead, 12,500 pickup Mobile - 16% Dem lead 6,000 pickup Madison - 17% Dem lead, 600 pickup Shelby - 18% Rep lead, 3400 drop Baldwin - 26% Rep lead, 900 drop Marshall - 45% Rep lead, 270 drop
The vote # & % for Madison, Tuscaloosa, Mobile and above all Jefferson tell the tale. As in VA, the Putinists are losing the upper-income, higher-education urban-suburban-exurban vote. PLUS fact that Black voters could hardly fail to realize that Jones really DID have a chance, and that their votes really COULD make a difference in a statewide race, for the first time in decades.
Congrats to President Trumpsky and Herr Bannon for pissing away a GOP Senate seat - great work, guys, keep it up!!!
Map of county results shows that this race broke down geographically along traditional Alabama political-social-economic lines:
>> Black belt counties, the cradle of antebellum plantation slavery noted for their rich soil and heavy African American populations, voted strongly for Jones
>> Upland counties north of Black belt mostly White & rural, went heavily for Moore, along with cluster of rural White counties in southeast AL piney woods region
>> northernmost counties in the Tennessee River Valley traditionally populist, mostly went for Moore but NOT slam-dunk
>> urban/suburban/exuban/university/high-tech counties broke for Moore, giving him statewide victory.
write-ins 2% just over 20k with 96% of vote reporting.
"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Jones has a margin of 0.7 points over Moore, and the share of write-in votes is more than double that, at around 1.7 percent."
write-ins 2% just over 20k with 96% of vote reporting.
"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Jones has a margin of 0.7 points over Moore, and the share of write-in votes is more than double that, at around 1.7 percent."
write-ins 2% just over 20k with 96% of vote reporting.
"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Jones has a margin of 0.7 points over Moore, and the share of write-in votes is more than double that, at around 1.7 percent."
That really is a victory for decency; the senior senator perhaps,helped swing the election.
Trump's strong endorsement of the defeated thug makes the result particularly sweet.
Not quite what I was expecting from Trump. Perhaps he's learning?
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
write-ins 2% just over 20k with 96% of vote reporting.
"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Jones has a margin of 0.7 points over Moore, and the share of write-in votes is more than double that, at around 1.7 percent."
That really is a victory for decency; the senior senator perhaps,helped swing the election.
Trump's strong endorsement of the defeated thug makes the result particularly sweet.
Not quite what I was expecting from Trump. Perhaps he's learning?
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
It looks like black voters won it for Jones - relative turnout was up massively in all the majority black counties, by 15-20%. Turnout fell in all counties that Moore won.
It looks like black voters won it for Jones - relative turnout was up massively in all the majority black counties, by 15-20%. Turnout fell in all counties that Moore won.
OK. Let me go out on a limb here. I think Jones does this by close to 5%. My totally hacked together spreadsheet assumes all % continue as is, and that you can simply extrapolate by % in.
It gives it to Jones by 4.8%.
This is a really fascinating race but to top it off we have a nail-biting rcs1000 vs Miscellaneous Punditry contest as well.
So the result is kind of an unsatisfying tie halfway between the punditry and the spreadsheet.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
Do you have evidence for that allegation? Usually such posts get people banned from this site.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
Do you have evidence for that allegation? Usually such posts get people banned from this site.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
Do you have evidence for that allegation? Usually such posts get people banned from this site.
What part of it is contentious?
Last time I looked Roy Moore hadn't been convicted of anything. Shows that the "don't post anything that might get Mike into trouble" line only applies to certain posters.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
Do you have evidence for that allegation? Usually such posts get people banned from this site.
What part of it is contentious?
Last time I looked Roy Moore hadn't been convicted of anything. Shows that the "don't post anything that might get Mike into trouble" line only applies to certain posters.
In my opinion, if Nigel’s primary concern was protecting and defending the victims of child abuse he would not have backed a candidate who has been accused of child abuse. As we know, one of the reasons why so many children do not come forward about the abuse they have suffered, or are slow to do so, is because they are afraid no-one will believe them.
Good news in the long run for the Republican Party. But they are looking at a complete hammering next year unless things change. Their opponents are evidently super-motivated.
Good news in the long run for the Republican Party. But they are looking at a complete hammering next year unless things change. Their opponents are evidently super-motivated.
And Republicans less so. It also shows the voter suppression only gets you so far.
It's going to take a long time to get paid on this market. Due to the margin write in votes will need to be hand counted, as will military votes. Certification won't happen till the new year.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
So, Nigel Farage’s racist child molester got beaten. That is wonderful news. And now we know that Nigel really doesn’t give a monkeys about the sexual abuse of children. It’s other things that interest him.
Do you have evidence for that allegation? Usually such posts get people banned from this site.
What part of it is contentious?
Last time I looked Roy Moore hadn't been convicted of anything. Shows that the "don't post anything that might get Mike into trouble" line only applies to certain posters.
In my opinion, if Nigel’s primary concern was protecting and defending the victims of child abuse he would not have backed a candidate who has been accused of child abuse. As we know, one of the reasons why so many children do not come forward about the abuse they have suffered, or are slow to do so, is because they are afraid no-one will believe them.
A more sensible post, thank you. I’d point out that malicious allegations against prominent people such as politicians doesn’t help the situation either which is why a degree of sensitivity is needed around this matter.
FWIW think Farage was stupid to support this bloke if he did.
And on the child abuse in this country, I’m sure Griffin and perhaps Farage had their reasons for raising the issue. But the bottom line is those girls were failed by mainly Labour run councillors who had their own reasons for not acting.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
Asthmatics seem good at cycling. Perhaps I should have got into it when I was younger.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
Sky have long taken the absolute piss with TUEs but it looks like CF has tested even the UCI's legendary ability to look the other.
Well done, Doug Jones. Great to see the progressive voters of Alabama elect someone who was - to quote Trump -
"Pro-Abortion, weak on Crime, Military and Illegal Immigration, Bad for Gun Owners and Veterans and against the WALL."
Also nice to see Nigel Farage getting his fingers slammed in the proverbial car door, helping get this loser as the candidate - against the Donald's preferred choice. I wonder if Nigel will be getting a White House Christmas card this year.....?
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
Asthmatics seem good at cycling. Perhaps I should have got into it when I was younger.
If you, like me, have been ‘blessed’ with wonky lungs, I sympathise. I noticed that when I actually started cycling ‘properly’ .... 10 miles to school and so on ....... my asthma improved considerably and while I never went in for cycle racing I did do quite a lot of cycle touring. Of course, after a few years it was much more ‘manly’ to have first a motor bike and then a car! Much easier to carry young ladies about, too.
Delighted that Jones has done it and disappointed that Wm Hill once again didn't have a market.
From the NYT: "A former federal prosecutor, Mr. Jones won convictions of two Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 bombing of Birmingham’s 16th Street Baptist Church that killed four girls,"
The black vote seems to have remembered this and come out very strongly despite attempts at voter suppression. The contrast with Moore who was removed as a Judge twice for behaviour politely described as eccentric was strong even before the sexual harassment claims. The Republicans really need to focus on how degenerate nutters like this get selected in the first place. At the very least this election has shown that there can be consequences for such selections, even in the reddest states.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
Asthmatics seem good at cycling. Perhaps I should have got into it when I was younger.
If you, like me, have been ‘blessed’ with wonky lungs, I sympathise. I noticed that when I actually started cycling ‘properly’ .... 10 miles to school and so on ....... my asthma improved considerably and while I never went in for cycle racing I did do quite a lot of cycle touring. Of course, after a few years it was much more ‘manly’ to have first a motor bike and then a car! Much easier to carry young ladies about, too.
I do have asthma but it only really affects me when I have a cold. I think Paul Scholes has asthma so it certainly can be overcome (at least by skill). But the TUE system is a joke. All the other competitors should be allowed to use the same drugs even if they aren’t asthmatic.
@SimonMaloy: as far as own goals go, "make a red-state senator AG who then recuses himself from Russia inquiries and opens up the path to a special counsel while the whacko child molester nominated to replace him suffers a historic defeat" is pretty satisfying
Despite Trump "Objective reality exists, says UK minister Matt Hancock" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42322191 "And thankfully in the UK we do have a regulated broadcast sector, which provides for a very significant proportion of trusted news."
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
A lot of cyclists seem to have quite severe asthma.
Despite Trump "Objective reality exists, says UK minister Matt Hancock" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42322191 "And thankfully in the UK we do have a regulated broadcast sector, which provides for a very significant proportion of trusted news."
Love or hate the BBC something isn’t right whenever the R4 Today prog gives an RT rep a hard time about impartiality and state funding.
write-ins 2% just over 20k with 96% of vote reporting.
"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Jones has a margin of 0.7 points over Moore, and the share of write-in votes is more than double that, at around 1.7 percent."
That really is a victory for decency; the senior senator perhaps,helped swing the election.
Trump's strong endorsement of the defeated thug makes the result particularly sweet.
Not quite what I was expecting from Trump. Perhaps he's learning?
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
So he’ll be a lay for the Sports Personality award then.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
Something potentially dodgy going on in cycling? Say it ain't so.
As sports go it's a bit of a joke in that regard, even more than most.
Splendid rezult - and hopefully for their sakes the Republicans will learn the lesson all parties get reminded of from time to time, of not enough, that sometimes a candidate can in fact be too crap even in your safe areas.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
A lot of cyclists seem to have quite severe asthma.
It's no technically asthma. It's classed as an 'exercise induced wheeze'. A huge number of high performance athletes have it. It's not a bullshit made up condition - when you push your body to the limit shit happens.
The question then is, should people who develop exercise induced wheeze get the benefit of an inhaler to help them or should they just deal with it?
Waking up to the news. Sensational and wonderful news. 51-49 in the Senate.
Although BBC seem to be saying Moore might force a recount.
It need to be .5% difference for an auto recount. Currently the gap is larger but there are military votes to count and write ins which happen next week.
Splendid rezult - and hopefully for their sakes the Republicans will learn the lesson all parties get reminded of from time to time, of not enough, that sometimes a candidate can in fact be too crap even in your safe areas.
That's the fifth Senate race since 2010 that the Republicans have thrown away by selecting a muppet.
In othewr news, Chris Froome is difficulty over alleged doping. Looks lioke he’s used his asthma inhaler too often, or perhaps too close to a test, although one would think that was allowed for.
A lot of cyclists seem to have quite severe asthma.
I still cannot get over the revelation from that clip TSE posted that Moore and his spokesman genuinely believed Muslims cannot be elected officials because they thought you had to swear an oath on a Bible, that in effect only Christians can hold office. Obviously the sexual stuff is more important if indeed it is true, and I know America is more Christian than us, but that view on swearing an oath would speak to just how dumb the man is, a whole separate issue.
Edit: that's what his spokesman claimed at least . If Moore knows that is not true then he's not necessarily dumb, just lying about his horribly racist reasoning.
Despite Trump "Objective reality exists, says UK minister Matt Hancock" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42322191 "And thankfully in the UK we do have a regulated broadcast sector, which provides for a very significant proportion of trusted news."
Love or hate the BBC something isn’t right whenever the R4 Today prog gives an RT rep a hard time about impartiality and state funding.
If you're comparing Russia Today with The Radio 4 Today programme, you're off your trolley.
Mr. kle4, not sure if it's still the case but in one state legislature (Texas, I think) atheists couldn't hold office.
Terrible. But they do have a Muslim member of congress iirc. For a more diverse country than us I'm surprised there are not more, and more open atheists, at least at congress level even if it precluded them from a top job.
Despite Trump "Objective reality exists, says UK minister Matt Hancock" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42322191 "And thankfully in the UK we do have a regulated broadcast sector, which provides for a very significant proportion of trusted news."
Love or hate the BBC something isn’t right whenever the R4 Today prog gives an RT rep a hard time about impartiality and state funding.
If you're comparing Russia Today with The Radio 4 Today programme, you're off your trolley.
Jones' victory is a big boost for the Democrats following their Virginia and New Jersey governor wins and gives them an outside chance of taking the Senate in the midterms as well as their already strong chances of taking the House.
However as Trump has tweeted after congratulating Jones the Republicans will have a good chance of taking it back in due course as Elizabeth Warren won back the Massachusetts Senate seat for the Democrats Republican Scott Brown won in 2010
It's heading the same way in England with the political parties.
As I understand it the tories made up some ground with non whites, now it's moving away again - so it might not be a permanent trend, though we can hope we don't keep a racial divide electorally.
Splendid rezult - and hopefully for their sakes the Republicans will learn the lesson all parties get reminded of from time to time, of not enough, that sometimes a candidate can in fact be too crap even in your safe areas.
That's the fifth Senate race since 2010 that the Republicans have thrown away by selecting a muppet.
Splendid rezult - and hopefully for their sakes the Republicans will learn the lesson all parties get reminded of from time to time, of not enough, that sometimes a candidate can in fact be too crap even in your safe areas.
That's the fifth Senate race since 2010 that the Republicans have thrown away by selecting a muppet.
Fools. This was presumably the worst instance, if they don't learn here they never will.
Fantastic news from America. Next year a wave? I think so. Dems to control House of R are value I reckon.
The Dems still have to overcome some completely egregious jerrymandering of Republican seats in the House though.
Gerrymandering only helps the GOP in close races, with the Democrats now having such a big lead nationwide ironically it just makes a Democratic landslide more likely next year as they have more safe districts than the GOP ie areas with big minority majorities
Fantastic news from America. Next year a wave? I think so. Dems to control House of R are value I reckon.
The Dems still have to overcome some completely egregious jerrymandering of Republican seats in the House though.
Gerrymandering could help Dems if they have a wave year. If they win nationally by 6+ points I think effect will reverse. Currently they are +10 in the RCP generic average.
Jones' victory is a big boost for the Democrats following their Virginia and New Jersey governor wins and gives them an outside chance of taking the Senate in the midterms as well as their already strong chances of taking the House.
However as Trump has tweeted after congratulating Jones the Republicans will have a good chance of taking it back in due course as Elizabeth Warren won back the Massachusetts Senate seat for the Democrats Republican Scott Brown won in 2010
Fantastic news from America. Next year a wave? I think so. Dems to control House of R are value I reckon.
The Dems still have to overcome some completely egregious jerrymandering of Republican seats in the House though.
Gerrymandering could help Dems if they have a wave year. If they win nationally by 6+ points I think effect will reverse. Currently they are +10 in the RCP generic average.
Yep - gerrymandering effectively increases/maximises the number of potentially winnable seats at the expense of safe seats. Increases the number of marginally held seats but removes the firewall protection against landslides under FPTP.
Fantastic news from America. Next year a wave? I think so. Dems to control House of R are value I reckon.
The Dems still have to overcome some completely egregious jerrymandering of Republican seats in the House though.
Gerrymandering could help Dems if they have a wave year. If they win nationally by 6+ points I think effect will reverse. Currently they are +10 in the RCP generic average.
Yep - gerrymandering effectively increases/maximises the number of potentially winnable seats at the expense of safe seats. Increases the number of marginally held seats but removes the firewall protection against landslides under FPTP.
It's heading the same way in England with the political parties.
As I understand it the tories made up some ground with non whites, now it's moving away again - so it might not be a permanent trend, though we can hope we don't keep a racial divide electorally.
Race doesn't tell you a lot in a British context; national origin and religion do.
The problem the Tories have is that the minorities which are (broadly speaking) economically successful have fewer children than those that aren't. A Tory leader with some kind of strategic vision would realise this and reform immigration policy accordingly. Unfortunately, most don't think in generational terms.
Comments
89% in
Jones 49.6%
Moore 48.8%
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share
Remaining votes:
Montgomery - 45% Dem lead, 28700 pickup
Jefferson - 40% Dem lead, 12,500 pickup
Mobile - 16% Dem lead 6,000 pickup
Madison - 17% Dem lead, 600 pickup
Shelby - 18% Rep lead, 3400 drop
Baldwin - 26% Rep lead, 900 drop
Marshall - 45% Rep lead, 270 drop
So Jones by ~ 50,000
Congrats to President Trumpsky and Herr Bannon for pissing away a GOP Senate seat - great work, guys, keep it up!!!
>> Black belt counties, the cradle of antebellum plantation slavery noted for their rich soil and heavy African American populations, voted strongly for Jones
>> Upland counties north of Black belt mostly White & rural, went heavily for Moore, along with cluster of rural White counties in southeast AL piney woods region
>> northernmost counties in the Tennessee River Valley traditionally populist, mostly went for Moore but NOT slam-dunk
>> urban/suburban/exuban/university/high-tech counties broke for Moore, giving him statewide victory.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/
Trump's strong endorsement of the defeated thug makes the result particularly sweet.
Jefferson - 80% of statewide performance (42% black)
Greene - 82% (90% black)
Lee - 86% (no idea?)
Macon - 88% (83% black)
Tuscaloosa - 89%
Madison - 89%
Montgomery - 91% (55% black)
So basically it was won and lost on Jefferson county.
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
@realDonaldTrump
Turnout fell in all counties that Moore won.
Not far off a coin flip.
Silly punters.
Cleburne county
2016, 2017
GOP 5554, 2465 -56%
Dem 847, 594 -30%
Greene
2016, 2017
GOP 918, 462 -50%
Dem 3834, 3340 -13%
Randolph
2016, 2017
GOP 7454 3229 -57%
Dem 2424 1692 -30%
Also Jefferson was just a disaster zone for GOP
2016
GOP 144136 66309 -54%
Dem 156574 149522 -4.5%
The election right there.
Yaaaay. Nice one Alabama.
Moore Is Less.
I'll report back when I'm fully awaken from months of slumber ....
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/dec/12/nigel-slater-roast-mallard-bramley-and-blueberry-sauce
"Baste the duck a couple of times as it roasts (there is less fat on a mallard than the average duck so it will appreciate this). "
How can a dead Mallard appreciate being basted?
America No Moore. )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPyUa2KsITw
What's the RULE?
WHAT'S THE DAMN RULE?
SAY IT WITH ME, AMERICA.
*EVERYTHING*
*TRUMP*
*TOUCHES*
*DIES*
FWIW think Farage was stupid to support this bloke if he did.
And on the child abuse in this country, I’m sure Griffin and perhaps Farage had their reasons for raising the issue. But the bottom line is those girls were failed by mainly Labour run councillors who had their own reasons for not acting.
"Pro-Abortion, weak on Crime, Military and Illegal Immigration, Bad for Gun Owners and Veterans and against the WALL."
Also nice to see Nigel Farage getting his fingers slammed in the proverbial car door, helping get this loser as the candidate - against the Donald's preferred choice. I wonder if Nigel will be getting a White House Christmas card this year.....?
Labour gift keeps on giving....
Next year a wave? I think so.
Dems to control House of R are value I reckon.
From the NYT: "A former federal prosecutor, Mr. Jones won convictions of two Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 bombing of Birmingham’s 16th Street Baptist Church that killed four girls,"
The black vote seems to have remembered this and come out very strongly despite attempts at voter suppression. The contrast with Moore who was removed as a Judge twice for behaviour politely described as eccentric was strong even before the sexual harassment claims. The Republicans really need to focus on how degenerate nutters like this get selected in the first place. At the very least this election has shown that there can be consequences for such selections, even in the reddest states.
The first Labour frontbencher backs BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) for Israel.
I suppose it was inevitable...
https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/940789767549194240
"Objective reality exists, says UK minister Matt Hancock"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42322191
"And thankfully in the UK we do have a regulated broadcast sector, which provides for a very significant proportion of trusted news."
Huzzah! Wish I'd got on sooner but always nice to have a winning bet
Modesty prevents me from naming any......{cough....smirk}.
As sports go it's a bit of a joke in that regard, even more than most.
Although BBC seem to be saying Moore might force a recount.
The question then is, should people who develop exercise induced wheeze get the benefit of an inhaler to help them or should they just deal with it?
Edit: that's what his spokesman claimed at least . If Moore knows that is not true then he's not necessarily dumb, just lying about his horribly racist reasoning.
However as Trump has tweeted after congratulating Jones the Republicans will have a good chance of taking it back in due course as Elizabeth Warren won back the Massachusetts Senate seat for the Democrats Republican Scott Brown won in 2010
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940795587733151744
If they win nationally by 6+ points I think effect will reverse.
Currently they are +10 in the RCP generic average.
The problem the Tories have is that the minorities which are (broadly speaking) economically successful have fewer children than those that aren't. A Tory leader with some kind of strategic vision would realise this and reform immigration policy accordingly. Unfortunately, most don't think in generational terms.