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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge blow for Trump as GOP loses the Alabama Senate election o

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge blow for Trump as GOP loses the Alabama Senate election on a hugely exciting betting night

The chart above is from Betdata.io and shows the dramatic changes in the Betfair price.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • POTWAS.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    Wooooh!

    Now learn the lesson and stop selecting duffers.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,680
    Back in my day, Nigel Farage was *the* former UKIP leader. How times change...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    There is no doubt this is a huge boost for Democrats ahead of the midterms next year.

    However let us not forget that in 2009 Democrats lost both the New Jersey and Virginia governorship races and in Januaryy 2010 Ted Kennedy's supposedly safe Massachusetts Senate seat to Republican Scott Brown and also the House in November as well as a number of Senate seats.

    Yet come 2012 Obama was still re elected when he defeated Romney by about 3% so I would not write off Trump just yet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    The fact that the Republicans were unable to hold onto a seat which is solidly Republican will have huge ramifications.

    Surely this should be caveated by the fact that the Republicans picked a very poor candidate?

    Of course, the candidates they put up next year might be equally as bad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,580
    Bannon is promising to put up lunatic primary challengers to 'disloyal' Republican senators next year.

    It could be a country wide slate of child molesters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181
    When he was just a 7 times loser, I despaired at how often the BBC invited Nigel Fucking Farage onto our screens, but just for today I would be happy to see him interviewed about the Alabama result, and his invaluable contribution to it...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181
    Meanwhile...

    @bbclaurak: Davis dawn letter to MPs doesn’t seem to have shifted opinion - May has always coughed rather than lose - so concessions late today or this time is she willing to take the hit?
  • OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181
    @SonaliShah: Jonny Bairstow moves up from 7 to 6 for tomorrow’s #Ashes test...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,845
    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?
  • Scott_P said:

    When he was just a 7 times loser, I despaired at how often the BBC invited Nigel Fucking Farage onto our screens, but just for today I would be happy to see him interviewed about the Alabama result, and his invaluable contribution to it...

    How surprising it was that Nigel Farage backed a homophobic racist accused of serial child abuse in the Alabama senate seat race. Whoever would have thought it?

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,845
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    @bbclaurak: Davis dawn letter to MPs doesn’t seem to have shifted opinion - May has always coughed rather than lose - so concessions late today or this time is she willing to take the hit?

    Isn’t the whole thing a bit ridiculous and largely symbolic anyway? Surely for a vote to be “meaningful” there has to be a realistic alternative to the main proposal?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181

    How surprising it was that Nigel Farage backed a homophobic racist accused of serial child abuse in the Alabama senate seat race. Whoever would have thought it?

    Apparently he is back in Brussels today, whining about the Brexit deal
  • Roy Morron is a fascinating study in stupidity, arrogance and bigotry.

    And a nice little winner for me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181
    alex. said:

    Isn’t the whole thing a bit ridiculous and largely symbolic anyway? Surely for a vote to be “meaningful” there has to be a realistic alternative to the main proposal?

    That is presumably what they are afraid of.

    If article 50 can be revoked, Brexiteers can't risk Parliament having that option.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    Yes - it is because of the seats involved.

    No overall majority is an interesting bet because independents voting with Democrats don't count as Democrats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181

    And a nice little winner for me.

    Does Shadsy have to wait for ratification before settling?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,364
    alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    Because most of the senate seats up for te-election next year are already held by the Dems, and some of them like WV and ND look very tricky to hold even with a Dem surge.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,580
    alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    2012 was an exceptionally good year. Just breaking even would be a result for the Dems.

    A lot of very red states with blue senators up for re-election.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    @bbclaurak: Davis dawn letter to MPs doesn’t seem to have shifted opinion - May has always coughed rather than lose - so concessions late today or this time is she willing to take the hit?

    Isn’t the whole thing a bit ridiculous and largely symbolic anyway? Surely for a vote to be “meaningful” there has to be a realistic alternative to the main proposal?

    If I were a Tory MP, I'd reply to Davis "If you are promising a meaningful vote, then presumably you will have no objection to this amendment, which supports what you say".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Or 1.2 million homes powered by a couple of tidal barrages in South Wales....

    Presumably the Forties shutdown is not good news for the economy, short term at least.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Seems to be daily Catalonian polls - no significant shift as yet

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Christmas is always a good time for home grown wind.

    Meteorologicallay, the south coast has been doing its bit these last few weeks.
  • 7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    Because most of the senate seats up for te-election next year are already held by the Dems, and some of them like WV and ND look very tricky to hold even with a Dem surge.
    Manchin will hold WV he is an ultra conservative Democrat
  • Scott_P said:

    And a nice little winner for me.

    Does Shadsy have to wait for ratification before settling?
    Don't know but Betfair haven't paid out yet.

    PP though have a habit of paying out early.
  • OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Or 1.2 million homes powered by a couple of tidal barrages in South Wales....

    Presumably the Forties shutdown is not good news for the economy, short term at least.
    It is estimated if it stays shutdown for 2 weeks it will cost the oil companies £600 million in lost (or rather deferred) revenue. Not sure how that translates into Government revenue these days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Nigelb said:

    Roy Moore's brother on the election result...
    "It might not happen on this earth right now, but Doug Jones will pay for what he’s saying. And them Democrat people that’s out there and those Republicans in Washington. They’re going to have to answer to God.”

    Thank goodness -as I understand it God forgives.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,576

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Thank goodness for LNG. I haven't checked spot prices, but I'm guessing they've gone through the roof.
  • Barnesian said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    @bbclaurak: Davis dawn letter to MPs doesn’t seem to have shifted opinion - May has always coughed rather than lose - so concessions late today or this time is she willing to take the hit?

    Isn’t the whole thing a bit ridiculous and largely symbolic anyway? Surely for a vote to be “meaningful” there has to be a realistic alternative to the main proposal?

    If I were a Tory MP, I'd reply to Davis "If you are promising a meaningful vote, then presumably you will have no objection to this amendment, which supports what you say".
    Which is why the sensible thing would have been to accept it early on and take credit for the policy. The sensible thing now would still be to accept it. It's precisely because it's not damaging to the government (which has already conceded the principle) that the rebels will feel able to hold firm.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    Scott_P said:

    And a nice little winner for me.

    Does Shadsy have to wait for ratification before settling?
    I think Moore is asking for a recount.

    Betfair hasn't settled yet and I expect it will take some time.

    I had a lump on Jones at 5.5 and held my nerve except for a small lay at 1.2 in the early hours to cover my bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975
    calum said:

    Seems to be daily Catalonian polls - no significant shift as yet

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls

    Over on the right hand rail, Puigdemont's lot are slowly coming up behind the leaders.
  • Scott_P said:

    alex. said:

    Isn’t the whole thing a bit ridiculous and largely symbolic anyway? Surely for a vote to be “meaningful” there has to be a realistic alternative to the main proposal?

    That is presumably what they are afraid of.

    If article 50 can be revoked, Brexiteers can't risk Parliament having that option.
    No, they're afraid of a crash Brexit. The risk is that parliament doesn't much like it, votes it down with an instruction to the government to go back and get a better deal, which it then can't and there ends up being no deal at all.

    But it's still silly thinking because it's inconceivable that parliament won't have a vote of some nature on the deal once it's done - and because the EP has to have a vote for it to count, there'll be time for Westminster to do so too.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    And a nice little winner for me.

    Does Shadsy have to wait for ratification before settling?
    I think Moore is asking for a recount.

    Betfair hasn't settled yet and I expect it will take some time.

    I had a lump on Jones at 5.5 and held my nerve except for a small lay at 1.2 in the early hours to cover my bet.
    I’ve cashed out at 1.01 on betfair - haven’t had a win in a while!
  • rcs1000 said:

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Thank goodness for LNG. I haven't checked spot prices, but I'm guessing they've gone through the roof.
    Basic gas prices have doubled in the last week. Not sure how quickly we can get LNG supplies into Europe to compensate for the loss of Russian gas. Thankfully that is not a direct problem for us. The reductions in Troll gas production are a bigger issue for the UK. They are at less than 50% of normal production.

    Looking at the images and reports from Austria they are not going to get that facility up and running again any time soon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roy Moore's brother on the election result...
    "It might not happen on this earth right now, but Doug Jones will pay for what he’s saying. And them Democrat people that’s out there and those Republicans in Washington. They’re going to have to answer to God.”

    Thank goodness -as I understand it God forgives.
    Bit like the abbott at Bezires (sp); kill them all; God will know his own!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294
    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    I think you can vote straight R or D ticket in Alabama also - presumably some people just do that.
  • UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    rcs1000 said:

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Thank goodness for LNG. I haven't checked spot prices, but I'm guessing they've gone through the roof.
    Basic gas prices have doubled in the last week. Not sure how quickly we can get LNG supplies into Europe to compensate for the loss of Russian gas. Thankfully that is not a direct problem for us. The reductions in Troll gas production are a bigger issue for the UK. They are at less than 50% of normal production.

    Looking at the images and reports from Austria they are not going to get that facility up and running again any time soon.
    Isn’t Italy in a State of Emergency or something like that?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130
    Well done Alabama.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
  • alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    There are 8 Republicans, 23 Democrats and 2 Independents up for re-election.

    For the Republicans, Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming should be safe. This leaves only Arizona and Nevada in play.
    Meanwhile the Democrats have 5 difficult defences in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. West Virginia is probably the safest of these as Manchin got 61% last time around. The Dems also need to keep half an eye on Minnesota with Al Franken standing down.

    To take the Senate they need to gain both Nevada and Arizona, while holding all of their own seats. It seems a tough ask
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,832
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roy Moore's brother on the election result...
    "It might not happen on this earth right now, but Doug Jones will pay for what he’s saying. And them Democrat people that’s out there and those Republicans in Washington. They’re going to have to answer to God.”

    Thank goodness -as I understand it God forgives.
    He doesn't forgive Democrats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    alex. said:

    Just as a matter of interest why are the Senate elections talked about as Democrats only having “a chance” of taking it? I know they elect by thirds but they only need a couple of seats? Is it just because of the seats involved (and presumably defending a “good” year ie. coinciding with Obama’s second victory)?

    There are 8 Republicans, 23 Democrats and 2 Independents up for re-election.

    For the Republicans, Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming should be safe. This leaves only Arizona and Nevada in play.
    Meanwhile the Democrats have 5 difficult defences in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. West Virginia is probably the safest of these as Manchin got 61% last time around. The Dems also need to keep half an eye on Minnesota with Al Franken standing down.

    To take the Senate they need to gain both Nevada and Arizona, while holding all of their own seats. It seems a tough ask
    Given the result in Alabama, there must be a bit of hope in Tennessee.
  • UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
  • The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,941

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975


    ONS‏Verified account
    @ONS
    11m11 minutes ago
    More
    In September to November 2017 there were 798,000 job vacancies in the UK - the highest figure on record, and up 45,000 on the year: http://ow.ly/qUNs30hc6Na


  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 747


    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    I suppose the legislation could compel the govt to go back to negotiating upon losing a "meaningful" vote, but an Article50 extension would still be needed - and time would be very short.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,941
    edited December 2017

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    "meaningful" = chance for Soubry et al to signal their virtue.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Quite. However the first and second are reasonably long term. Going to be quite a culture shock for some managements!
    As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
    Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,326

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    It's nonsense on stilts. The EU would tell us to whistle if we wanted to change the painstakingly negotiated deal. This is all to do with the vanity of certain parliamentarians and nothing to do with the national interest.

    If MPs really think it's bad, they should pass a vote of no confidence in the government.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,837

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Dirty Cars. What horror!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,941

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Quite. However the first and second are reasonably long term. Going to be quite a culture shock for some managements!
    As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
    Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
    Remember freedom of movement doesn't = no imported labour.

    It means the government gets to set the conditions for immigration - i.e. work permits.

    The crops wont rot in the fields.
  • rcs1000 said:

    OT.

    All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.

    As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.

    Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.

    Thank goodness for LNG. I haven't checked spot prices, but I'm guessing they've gone through the roof.
    Basic gas prices have doubled in the last week. Not sure how quickly we can get LNG supplies into Europe to compensate for the loss of Russian gas. Thankfully that is not a direct problem for us. The reductions in Troll gas production are a bigger issue for the UK. They are at less than 50% of normal production.

    Looking at the images and reports from Austria they are not going to get that facility up and running again any time soon.
    Isn’t Italy in a State of Emergency or something like that?
    Yep. I think they are the ones most severely affected by this.
  • Andrew said:


    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    I suppose the legislation could compel the govt to go back to negotiating upon losing a "meaningful" vote, but an Article50 extension would still be needed - and time would be very short.
    And the EU would tell us to FO, take it or leave it.

    It's a meaningless at best, disasterous at worst vote.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,326

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    The servant shortage will be simply unbearable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    philiph said:

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Dirty Cars. What horror!
    Wasn’t there someone on here a while back bemoaning (understandably, since he was concerned with it) the collapse in the car washing machine industry.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    TGOHF said:

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Quite. However the first and second are reasonably long term. Going to be quite a culture shock for some managements!
    As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
    Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
    Remember freedom of movement doesn't = no imported labour.

    It means the government gets to set the conditions for immigration - i.e. work permits.

    The crops wont rot in the fields.
    TBF, I think there’ll be a middle ground..... permits but problems. AFAIK the gangmaster industry is not one with a high respect for the rule of law.
  • King Cole, I recall a comment along those lines. Investment in excellent new machinery was rendered worthless because suddenly there were large numbers of men willing to wash cars for far less than had been the case.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,059
    Dropping by for a visit, hope all are in good form and voice. The result does come with its dangers despite its hilarity. The weaker Trump gets the higher the increasing chance he explodes a bomb under sections of the establishment or under a toilet in Pyongyang or Tehran. I'd rate the CIA/FBI and Kim Jong Un as equally nervous right about now.
    They feared Nixon would drop the big one in 73/74, and he was a very able man.
  • Need 2 to rebel? If one rebels it would be 50-50 and Mike Pence would break the tie.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,312

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Quite. However the first and second are reasonably long term. Going to be quite a culture shock for some managements!
    As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
    Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
    In the 1960s and 1970s when unemployment was low and there were no Eastern Europeans to do the donkey work farmers concentrated on crops that can be sown and harvested by machines - wheat, barley and sugar beet - soft fruits and vegetables were far less widespread than they are today. If labour becomes scare this will presumably happen again, and this could be expected to result in higher prices for fruit and vegetables.
  • Welcome back, Mr. Woolie.

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Browser.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    Carry on in the transition until a different deal is negotiated?
    Request an extension to A50 deadline?

    I don’t particularly understand tbh.

    If the govt negotiates a crap deal - then change the govt.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    "Mr Juncker appointed his driver as a spy after he told the PM he wanted a more exciting life."
  • rkrkrk said:

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    Carry on in the transition until a different deal is negotiated?
    Request an extension to A50 deadline?

    I don’t particularly understand tbh.

    If the govt negotiates a crap deal - then change the govt.

    The deadline is March 2019. If no deal has been agreed by then we leave without a deal. The transition does not occur if we don't have a deal.

    The only way to avoid that is to get all 27 other EU states to agree to a formal extension under Article 50.

    And you assume the negotiation of a crap deal is down top the Government. Given the apparent and oft stated intention to punish the UK it might be that changing Government makes no difference.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,584
    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 747
    edited December 2017


    And the EU would tell us to FO, take it or leave it.

    It's a meaningless at best, disasterous at worst vote.

    Maybe - Brussels was certainly keen from early on that the UK doesn't take the piss with extensions (or a legally questionable Article 50 retraction) as a negotiating tool.

    Or: perhaps they might view it as potential to string out the process. Say a 1 year extension, which then makes further extensions more palatable in future, which then opens the political possibility of the UK overturning the whole thing in a (distant) future referendum.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    Capital investment, increased productivity and higher wages ie what was the situation for generations beforehand.
    Quite. However the first and second are reasonably long term. Going to be quite a culture shock for some managements!
    As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
    Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
    In the 1960s and 1970s when unemployment was low and there were no Eastern Europeans to do the donkey work farmers concentrated on crops that can be sown and harvested by machines - wheat, barley and sugar beet - soft fruits and vegetables were far less widespread than they are today. If labour becomes scare this will presumably happen again, and this could be expected to result in higher prices for fruit and vegetables.
    Indeed; there’s a delay of at least a season though. And, most, if not all, of the sugar beet processing factories in East Anglia have now closed. Not sure how long it would take to get them up and running again.

    And thank you Mr D; knew someone would also recall the post.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Andrew said:


    And the EU would tell us to FO, take it or leave it.

    It's a meaningless at best, disasterous at worst vote.



    Maybe - or they might view it as potential to string out the process. Say a 1 year extension, which then makes further extensions more palatable in future, which then opens the political possibility of the UK overturning the whole thing in a future referendum.
    I know what Mr T posted upthread, but AFAIK, apart from one or two individuals there’s no desire in Europe to either punish us or refuse to have us back.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,059

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    First they came for the stumpys...........
  • IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,059

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
    They take the short money so why not?
  • It's worth noting that Basil II was short. Didn't stop him being a hugely successful emperor. And Maximinus Thrax was a giant of a man, and ushered in the Crisis of the Third Century.
  • IanB2 said:

    calum said:

    Seems to be daily Catalonian polls - no significant shift as yet

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls

    Over on the right hand rail, Puigdemont's lot are slowly coming up behind the leaders.

    The key thing is the vote percentage - if the parties backing UDI get over 50% between them then the potential for ongoing trouble is very big. If they don't. it still means confusion, but there is no mandate for UDI. Just about every poll has shown a slight drop in percentage support for the UDI parties. The other interesting thing is that recent polls have shown that Ciutadans might well emerge as the largest single party - thanks largely to a fall in the PP vote. It could be that we will see further leakage from PP to Cs as a result.

  • IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
    They take the short money so why not?
    It is a well known effect in voting that the candidate first on list gets a slight uptick just on that basis alone.
  • Andrew said:


    And the EU would tell us to FO, take it or leave it.

    It's a meaningless at best, disasterous at worst vote.

    Maybe - Brussels was certainly keen from early on that the UK doesn't take the piss with extensions (or a legally questionable Article 50 retraction) as a negotiating tool.

    Or: perhaps they might view it as potential to string out the process. Say a 1 year extension, which then makes further extensions more palatable in future, which then opens the political possibility of the UK overturning the whole thing in a (distant) future referendum.
    I may well be wrong on this because it was news to me, but I gather from a comment made by Barnier the other day that only a single 1 year extension is allowed under Article 50.
  • Can we name any of the EU27 countries that are more friendly towards the UK than they are towards France and Germany - and with good reason?

    In view of the history of our wars with France and Germany I eliminated them at the start.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,559
    edited December 2017

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
    They take the short money so why not?
    It is a well known effect in voting that the candidate first on list gets a slight uptick just on that basis alone.
    The Leave campaign (funny how everything comes back to Brexit) estimated their success in getting the question changed was worth 4 per cent. What was the winning margin again?

    The government's original question was yes/no, and yes has the advantage in referendums. The question was changed to leave/remain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    You sure she didn't just say that you were "head and shoulders above your opponent..."? ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    RoyalBlue said:

    UK unemployment rate falls to 1.43 million in the three months to October - the joint lowest it's been since 1975

    So what’s going to happen when the East Europeans go (are sent) home?
    The servant shortage will be simply unbearable.
    Roger will have to open - and serve! - his own champagne.

    The horror....
  • Roy Moore isn't only a racist, he's a homophobe and allegedly has, ahem, very dubious views about women. Basically, he ticks every bigot's box. So if you are a black male who hates women and homosexuals above all else, Roy was your man.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 948

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    Good question. Can't get very worked up about this amendment fight as a result, it almost feels that the public fight is about a non-issue to distract from the rest of the bill.

    If it passes, it surely means that the Government will have to keep parliament on-board at every stage before the deal is agreed. It's more about keeping parliament involved than the chaos involved in actually voting it down; the threat and power always more important than having to use it.

    In the nuclear option the Government would surely be forced to seek an A40 extension (££ time)in all likelihood to cover a snap General Election. But I don't think this is really what it's about.

    Far more significant in my view is what Steve Baker is saying about no vote for parliament if there is no deal. That would be a betrayal of everything the Leave campaign was about and the government has promised - but in that case there would be no deal for parliament to vote on. I'd have thought a far more useful amendment would be requiring the Government to gain explicit legislative consent to leave under these circumstances.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077

    The fundamental question of a 'meaningful vote' remains, though. What if the deal negotiated is declined?

    A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?

    Possibly the worst of all worlds - the UK Brexiting on WTO terms - and a Government that has fallen as a result....
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,199
    edited December 2017
    Essexit said:

    Back in my day, Nigel Farage was *the* former UKIP leader. How times change...

    Is Farage UKIP leader in the EU parliament?

    Edit - He is still shown as Chair of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group in the EU parliament.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181

    Possibly the worst of all worlds - the UK Brexiting on WTO terms - and a Government that has fallen as a result....

    Take Back Control...
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 948

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
    They take the short money so why not?
    It is a well known effect in voting that the candidate first on list gets a slight uptick just on that basis alone.
    Yes, when we had all out elections we lost a couple of decent sitting councillors because their surname began with W. I really can't see why randomised order on ballot papers can't be introduced to remove this bias (apart from the fact that it serves me very well!)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 747
    edited December 2017


    I may well be wrong on this because it was news to me, but I gather from a comment made by Barnier the other day that only a single 1 year extension is allowed under Article 50.

    You could probably file that alongside the issue of Article 50 revocation: untested in court, but it'll be made to happen if the political will is there on all sides.

    Anyway, doesn't really matter while Corbyn is leader. There's surely no way a deal gets voted down in the current HoC, knowing that'd it lead to a potentially disastrous game of chicken with the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181
    @jessicaelgot: Sheffield Hallam MP Jared O'Mara has been advised by his GP not to attend parliament, BBC Radio Sheffield reporting

    Let's have a by-election then...
  • Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: Sheffield Hallam MP Jared O'Mara has been advised by his GP not to attend parliament, BBC Radio Sheffield reporting

    Let's have a by-election then...

    Is O'Mara infectious?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: Sheffield Hallam MP Jared O'Mara has been advised by his GP not to attend parliament, BBC Radio Sheffield reporting

    Let's have a by-election then...

    I trust he will be doing constituency surgeries five days a week then?

    Yeah, right....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181

    Is O'Mara infectious?

    I think poisonous is the word you were looking for, perhaps?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,181

    I trust he will be doing constituency surgeries five days a week then?

    Yeah, right....

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,326

    Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: Sheffield Hallam MP Jared O'Mara has been advised by his GP not to attend parliament, BBC Radio Sheffield reporting

    Let's have a by-election then...

    Is O'Mara infectious?
    I think odious is the word you're looking for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    tpfkar said:

    IanB2 said:

    7% of black men still voted for Moore. What did they see in the guy??

    3% of black women did, which is even less explicable.
    Those percentages are in the same range as UKIP voters who supported Remain. In politics people have all sorts of weird reasons for their choices. For example over the years I have met a handful of people who made their choice solely because I shared a first name or some other personal detail with one of their relatives.
    Yes I once met a "normally Conservative" voter who supported me because I was taller than the other candidate. I looked at her in bemusement but didn't argue.
    Does that mean that Labour usually nominate short candidates in Broxtowe and if so, will you be reviewing your practice in the light of that?
    They take the short money so why not?
    It is a well known effect in voting that the candidate first on list gets a slight uptick just on that basis alone.
    Yes, when we had all out elections we lost a couple of decent sitting councillors because their surname began with W. I really can't see why randomised order on ballot papers can't be introduced to remove this bias (apart from the fact that it serves me very well!)
    We have an absurd number of W surnamed councillors round my way. Must buck the trend, or they were up against a lot of people surnamed Zoltan and the like (more likely it's only 2-3 candidates and they were mostly tories in rural areas, so any effect not enough)
This discussion has been closed.