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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open

If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it won’t turn your world, Upside Down, by delurking, I hope this intro will start a Chain Reaction of lurkers delurking.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    First strike.
  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    First strike.

    Note: The subject Avery responds to the stimulus as predicted.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2013
    tim:

    re Labour party funding - it was in the papers this morning (forget which one as read several on the plane).

    Small donations was around 29% of funding, union donations were either 23% or 25% and the rest was 2 other categories of similar size.

    They were a plurality, but not a majority. You'd have thought a politician and proposed Chief Secretary would know the difference. Almost makes me ashamed of New College.

    edit: TSE helpfully linked above

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/labours-financial-dependence-trade-unions-has-been-exaggerated
  • Options
    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Living standards.

    Report on C4 news tonight about starving children. In the UK. In 2013.

    Osborne's economic miracle, eh. The good news just keeps on coming, as surely as the food bank queues just keep on growing.
  • Options

    Roger posted -

    "So a Pyrrhic victory for Miliband"

    Seems to me it was anything but. The victory and consequences are very real and for all to see. Milibands stupidity was not shouting it from the rooftops and looking like he was ashamed of it. The poll shows how massively public opinion was on his side.

    Cameron who got almost everything that was possible to get wrong wrong seems to have managed to slither to safety. Having said that even a cat only has nine lives and he's pretty crap by anyone's standards

    Bloody hell,I agree with one of rogers post ;-)

    Except that Miliband *was* in favour of military force being used in principle, though heavily caveated. Which is why he an Labour have been in a tizzy, unable to work out what their policy should be. What he'd aimed it to be was 'not what the government did', so he could claim that if only he'd been listened to, things would have been better.

    The irony of course is that he wasn't listened to. Labour's motion went down by much more than the government one and the government one was defeated not because of Labour's policy but because of a combination of Labour's positioning and government policy.

    Ultimately, Miliband wanted to be seen as not being against force being used but not being in favour of it either - and that really isn't good enough for someone who aspires to be PM and who might have to lead these debates one day.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    No, Carl.

    If Cameron offered a new vote he would give licence to Miliband to play his petty partisan spoiling tricks again on any new matter of national security which might arise.

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    tim:

    re Labour party funding - it was in the papers this morning (forget which one as read several on the plane).

    Small donations was around 29% of funding, union donations were either 23% or 25% and the rest was 2 other categories of similar size.

    They were a plurality, but not a majority. You'd have thought a politician and proposed Chief Secretary would know the difference. Almost makes me ashamed of New College.

    edit: TSE helpfully linked above

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/labours-financial-dependence-trade-unions-has-been-exaggerated

    29 + 23 = 52%
  • Options
    Good evening, everyone.

    Early discussion for Italy is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/italy-early-discussion.html

    Mr. Eagles, no King Aha link?!

    I rather dislike Salmond's apparent approach of saying "If you disagree with me you're anti-Scottish".
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    tim:

    re Labour party funding - it was in the papers this morning (forget which one as read several on the plane).

    Small donations was around 29% of funding, union donations were either 23% or 25% and the rest was 2 other categories of similar size.

    They were a plurality, but not a majority. You'd have thought a politician and proposed Chief Secretary would know the difference. Almost makes me ashamed of New College.

    edit: TSE helpfully linked above

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/labours-financial-dependence-trade-unions-has-been-exaggerated

    29 + 23 = 52%
    That is indeed true. But of no relevance.
  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    Poor Ed Miliband.

    Won the battle; lost the war.
  • Options
    carlcarl Posts: 750
    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?



    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
  • Options
    Mr Dancer - Link 18 added now
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

  • Options
    I
    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    edited September 2013
    Huzzah! Thanks, Mr. Eagles.

    At the risk of sounding older than Mr. W, Semerkhet sounds very familiar... can't place it, though.

    Edited extra bit: that's damned frustrating. Checked on Wikipedia, hoping for a differentiation page with various chaps, but it seems to just be the pharaoh. I'm near certain that's *not* where I've heard it before, however.
  • Options

    Huzzah! Thanks, Mr. Eagles.

    At the risk of sounding older than Mr. W, Semerkhet sounds very familiar... can't place it, though.

    He had the best title


    King of Upper and Lower Egypt, he of the two ladies, he who belongs to them
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?
  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, I fail to see how discussion of a king from around 5,000 years ago could possibly be considered off-topic on a current affairs blog.

    Later Roman Emperors had fancy titles. Most didn't deserve them, though Aurelian probably did.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim:

    re Labour party funding - it was in the papers this morning (forget which one as read several on the plane).

    Small donations was around 29% of funding, union donations were either 23% or 25% and the rest was 2 other categories of similar size.

    They were a plurality, but not a majority. You'd have thought a politician and proposed Chief Secretary would know the difference. Almost makes me ashamed of New College.

    Money raised from fundraising and commercial takes it over fifty per cent.
    John Zims on here is an airhead, but we knew that.

    Guido didn't realise the Electoral Commission doesn't publish donations below £7500 either, and forgot to includ membership fees.
    And only looked at one quarter.
    And Zims fell for it
    But commercial is not members and small donations. It's advertising and stalls.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, I fail to see how discussion of a king from around 5,000 years ago could possibly be considered off-topic on a current affairs blog.

    Later Roman Emperors had fancy titles. Most didn't deserve them, though Aurelian probably did.

    I do apologise Mr Dancer.

    I must have inadvertently hit the off topic button whilst hitting the reply button on my iPad.

    I shall rectify this and beg your forgiveness please don't go all Hannibal at Cannae on me.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    edited September 2013
    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    Admiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    Apple has produced a new device for Ed Miliband that shows him what he did in moments of crisis.

    It's called: iRan.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT
    That one's going on file. Thank you for sharing.

    Part three is must-read for those with an interest in the Law of Unintended Consequences.
  • Options
    Say Semerkhet out loud and it sounds like Smeghead
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values.

    Assad did that by attacking and killing his own women, children and babies using weapons proscribed by the international community.

    Did you miss that bit?

    This is the reason that Cameron is in favour of a top down reorganisation of Syria.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    One insider I spoke to yesterday said Labour was bankrupt, and it was only a matter of time before the creditors came knocking. A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10286614/Labour-is-broke-and-has-no-back-up-plan.html
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Charles

    'But commercial is not members and small donations. It's advertising and stalls.'

    Don't confuse wee Timmy.
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    Captain Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

  • Options
    No... has a Russiany flavour: Syemerqet. It's quite perplexing.

    On the other hand, I may well steal the name for future use.

    And of course I forgive you, old bean. We all make mistakes, and no harm done. It's not like you brutally murderered me with a few dozen fellow conspirators.
  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil.
    Glad you get that bit, Avery
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    CaptainAdmiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

    Um, I was just testing you, TSE :)
  • Options
    carlcarl Posts: 750
    AveryLP said:

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values.

    Assad did that by attacking and killing his own women, children and babies using weapons proscribed by the international community.

    Did you miss that bit?

    This is the reason that Cameron is in favour of a top down reorganisation of Syria.
    Then why not give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's playing politics.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values.

    Assad did that by attacking and killing his own women, children and babies using weapons proscribed by the international community.

    Did you miss that bit?

    This is the reason that Cameron is in favour of a top down reorganisation of Syria.
    He is verbally, but he's not prepared to risk his job is he.
    There is nothing to be gained by re-running a vote at this stage, tim.

    Cameron needs to wait for the outcome of the G20 and Congress deliberations.

    The best outcome, as I have always maintained (except to Sunil), is for an agreed UNSC resolution giving an ultimatum to Assad.

    If that is achieved then we can expect a new vote.

  • Options
    tim said:

    TSE.

    Nothing on the sacking of Jesse Norman and the betting implications for Justine "You can ring my bell" Greening?

    I've added link 19, Justine Greening's departure was discussed on Friday here

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/30/after-the-syria-vote-what-happens-next-in-the-uk/
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    CaptainAdmiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

    Um, I was just testing you, TSE :)
    Behave you.

    I'm writing two Ed is crap threads concurrently, and your testing isn't helping.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.

    Wow, the Telegraph prints this crap?
  • Options
    Mr. Carl, the vote was not to authorise military action, it was about the principle. The Commons rejected it, voted no, and Cameron accepted that.

    It's a bit weird how Labour, having inflicted a defeat on the Government, seems so desperate to have another vote (presumably so that Labour can lose), whereas the Coalition has just accepted the result.
  • Options

    No... has a Russiany flavour: Syemerqet. It's quite perplexing.

    On the other hand, I may well steal the name for future use.

    And of course I forgive you, old bean. We all make mistakes, and no harm done. It's not like you brutally murderered me with a few dozen fellow conspirators.

    Keep a closer eye on those enormo-haddocks.
  • Options
    Neil said:

    Scott_P said:

    A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.

    Wow, the Telegraph prints this crap?
    Is it the Telegraph, or the Labour officials who think the COOP bank's liquidators would forgive the Labour debts?

  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, the enormo-haddock have the anti-Miliband loyalty allele in their genetic code, ensuring their trustworthiness.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Scott_P said:

    A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.

    Wow, the Telegraph prints this crap?
    Is it the Telegraph, or the Labour officials who think the COOP bank's liquidators would forgive the Labour debts?

    There are many levels on which you have to worry about the mental health of the guy who wrote this piece.
  • Options
    carlcarl Posts: 750
    tim said:

    tim said:

    TSE.

    Nothing on the sacking of Jesse Norman and the betting implications for Justine "You can ring my bell" Greening?

    I've added link 19, Justine Greening's departure was discussed on Friday here

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/30/after-the-syria-vote-what-happens-next-in-the-uk/
    It's a shame she wasn't locked in a small cupboard with Mark Simmonds discussing Rwanda when the West Coast franchise was being so ably overseen
    Such a talent.
    And to think some people on here rated her as a future leader
    That's nowt. Some Tories rated Louise Mensch as a future leader. Thatcheresque.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Avery

    "Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values"

    A dangerously low bar Avery. An invitation for those who take their religion more seriously than us to take a pop.

    Talking of which Happy New Year!
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    CaptainAdmiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

    Um, I was just testing you, TSE :)
    Behave you.

    I'm writing two Ed is crap threads concurrently, and your testing isn't helping.
    Of course, we are one big, happy fleet! Ah, TSE, my old friend. Do you know the Klingon proverb that tells us revenge is a dish that is best served cold? It is very cold... in space!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    edited September 2013

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    CaptainAdmiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

    Um, I was just testing you, TSE :)
    Behave you.

    I'm writing two Ed is crap threads concurrently, and your testing isn't helping.
    Of course, we are one big, happy fleet! Ah, TSE, my old friend. Do you know the Klingon proverb that tells us revenge is a dish that is best served cold? It is very cold... in space!
    They say that

    1) Revenge is a dish best served cold

    2) Revenge is sweet

    So by my reckoning, revenge is Ice Cream.
  • Options
    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values.

    Assad did that by attacking and killing his own women, children and babies using weapons proscribed by the international community.

    Did you miss that bit?

    This is the reason that Cameron is in favour of a top down reorganisation of Syria.
    Then why not give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's playing politics.
    31 backbenchers rebelled on the motion of notionally supporting military action(can only fire blanks).What chance has he got to convince his backbenchers to support actual firing of missiles?

    What is the point of a leader who can only fire blanks?

  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria: Big Fish?

    The believed defection of former Defence Minister and Chief of Staff Ali Habib is less about his knowledge of the Assad regime and more of what he represents.

    -He is well known & relatively respected
    -He is Alawite
    -He reportedly got fired from his post in 2011 for disagreeing with the regime stand on dealing with the fledging protests and uprising, so he is clean
    -He has contacts still within the Assad apparatus

    This guy has already been touted to the Russians and Americans (who will know him the Kuwait liberation) as a figure they can do business with before he even physically jumped ship. Question is will the Free Syrian Army do business with him?

    The answer is very possibly.

    Certainly there are some grasping at him as a potential bridging figure. The Russians are reportedly curious at this point.





  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2013
    tim said:


    I had £4 on at 110/1.
    Twice

    A solid prediction of the Mensch surge

    Oh, wait...
  • Options
    Cheers for that info, Mr. Y0kel.

    Problem is, would those inside the regime want to try negotiating? Plus, the opposition isn't especially united. Would a deal be possible, with numerous rebel groups?
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    Ed wants a re-run

    Dave doesn't

    Which one cocked up?

    CaptainAdmiral Kirk: "We tried it once your way, Khan. Are you game for a rematch?
    Khan, I'm laughing at the 'Superior' Intellect."
    Tut tut Sunil.

    He was Admiral Kirk at the time. Not a mere Captain

    Um, I was just testing you, TSE :)
    Behave you.

    I'm writing two Ed is crap threads concurrently, and your testing isn't helping.
    Of course, we are one big, happy fleet! Ah, TSE, my old friend. Do you know the Klingon proverb that tells us revenge is a dish that is best served cold? It is very cold... in space!
    They say that

    1) Revenge is a dish best served cold

    2) Revenge is sweet

    So by my reckoning, revenge is Ice Cream.
    Corporal General Chang: "Tickle us, do we not laugh? Prick us, do we not bleed? Wrong us, shall we not revenge?"

  • Options
    Not sure if this has been linked to yet but our last great intervention into the Arabic world is now looking decidedly dodgy.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/special-report-we-all-thought-libya-had-moved-on--it-has-but-into-lawlessness-and-ruin-8797041.html
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:

    One insider I spoke to yesterday said Labour was bankrupt, and it was only a matter of time before the creditors came knocking. A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10286614/Labour-is-broke-and-has-no-back-up-plan.html

    Poetic justice if they did go bust.
  • Options
    Mr. Tyndall, and yet had we not a genocide was certain.

    It's a great shame Libya appears to be descending into chaos, but that does not make intervention in that instance wrong.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Roger said:

    @Avery

    "Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values"

    A dangerously low bar Avery. An invitation for those who take their religion more seriously than us to take a pop.

    Talking of which Happy New Year!

    I hope Patisserie Valerie is serving apples dipped in honey today, Roger.

    Le'shana Tova Tikoseiv Vesichoseim.

    On matters Assyrian, I did mention the small matter of breaching "norms founded in international law", war crimes and crimes against humanity.
  • Options
    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Scott_P said:

    tim said:


    I had £4 on at 110/1.
    Twice

    A solid prediction of the Mensch surge

    Oh, wait...
    In fairness, being a snivelling Murdoch poodle was a big asset to an aspiring Tory at one point.

    Michael Gove still thinks it is.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    edited September 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Roger said:

    @Avery

    "Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values"

    A dangerously low bar Avery. An invitation for those who take their religion more seriously than us to take a pop.

    Talking of which Happy New Year!

    I hope Patisserie Valerie is serving apples dipped in honey today, Roger.

    Le'shana Tova Tikoseiv Vesichoseim.

    Is it in Israel's interest to have an Islamist Syria controlled by Jihadist elements on its Golan frontier?
  • Options
    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013

    Neil said:

    Scott_P said:

    A party official told me the funding crisis had become so great managers had expressed the hope that the Co-op bank – which has extended millions in loans to Labour – would go bust, so their debts could be written off.

    Wow, the Telegraph prints this crap?
    Is it the Telegraph, or the Labour officials who think the COOP bank's liquidators would forgive the Labour debts?

    These assets will be sold at 10% of value to the Conservative Party who will then attempt to collect at book and, on default, initiate bankruptcy proceedings.

  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    I

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    carl said:

    If intervening in Syria is so important to Cameron, why doesn't he give himself a chance of doing so by holding another vote?

    Because he's afraid he would lose? In other words, Cameron is playing politics over Syria?

    Cameron has to teach Miliband a lesson on this one.
    In other words, Cameron is playing politics with the issue of Syria.
    No, Carl, he is taking necessary steps to protect Queen and Country.

    But I don't expect you to understand.

    I missed the bit when Syria attacked Britain.
    Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values.

    Assad did that by attacking and killing his own women, children and babies using weapons proscribed by the international community.

    Did you miss that bit?

    This is the reason that Cameron is in favour of a top down reorganisation of Syria.
    Oh, for goodness sake! Since when was 'attacking our sensibilities and values' a casus belli? (OK, since the War of Jenkin's Ear?)

    Can you imagine if that was laid down as a principle of international relations? How difficult would it be to stop North Korea lobbing missiles left, right and centre as Kim Il Nutcase III takes offence at, well, this post among half a million other things? Or for that matter, why shouldn't we lob some the other way on account of his government starving the population?

    Now, there is an argument that the use of chemical weapons crosses a line, however Syria is not actually a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention and as such isn't bound by international treaty not to use them (except as a signatory to the Geneva Protocol 1925 but that's more limited). It is arguable that their use is so horrific that it constitutes a crime against humanity or a threat to international stability - but if so, you'd think the UN Security Council ought at least to discuss it given that that's what it's there for.

    Gladstone and Woodrow Wilson must be grinning in their graves.
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    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCSporf: ADVICE: If you can't afford to pay £66 for a brand new Ozil 11 Arsenal shirt, just find your old 03-04 away shirt. http://t.co/xZV3UizzL6
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    tim said:

    Mr. Tyndall, and yet had we not a genocide was certain.

    It's a great shame Libya appears to be descending into chaos, but that does not make intervention in that instance wrong.

    Not what you said about Iraq.
    And that was after a genocide against the Kurds
    The idiot parade is in town.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ly_J8ShqFkU

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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited September 2013

    Cheers for that info, Mr. Y0kel.

    Problem is, would those inside the regime want to try negotiating? Plus, the opposition isn't especially united. Would a deal be possible, with numerous rebel groups?

    The regime won't negotiate, a breakaway might.

    I suspect the intention is straightforward, bring the majority of each community with you, unite take on whoever wants to sit outside of it. One thing many should remember is that Syria has a ready made army post Assad. There are a lot of troops, who's reliability is questioned by Assad, effectively garrisoned and either relegated to back-end roles or stuck in outposts taking fire from insurgents. These troops number in thousands. Every possibility they would move across if an agreement struck. Add on a core of the Free Syrian Army plus some Alwaite influences, you have the closest thing to a coherent force on the ground.

    What we'll possibly see is the race to Damascus where US influenced groups coming in from the South will be taking aim to seize the place eclipsing Islamist radical influences.

    It may work it may not.
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    SeanT said:

    Incidentally I had drinks with some senior British officers - military intelligence - at the weekend.

    What amazed me was how right wing they were. I was under some delusion that our troops had become softy PC lefties, like the police and the judiciary.

    If my encounter was representative, we have nothing to fear. If anything a quasi-Fascist coup by the Special Boat Service is the main worry.

    My plans for a Directly Elected Dictator are coming along well.
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    RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    This is the huge problem for Gideon and why the Labour percentage is being so resilient:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/fraser-nelson/2013/09/what-use-is-gdp-going-up-if-wages-are-going-down/

    From that arch left winger Fraser Nelson "Labour will be trying to focus on wages. And much as though I hate to admit it, they have a point. As Ed West and I argued in a cover piece recently, Osborne’s recovery plan (based on monetary activism but fiscal conservatism) really is a plan for trickle-down economics. The official policy of QE involves reviving the economy by inflating assets. Unsurprisingly, the richest own most of the assets. Those who have investments find the value of these rising. But for those who only have cash in the bank – or no savings at all – there is not much to be optimistic about."
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally I had drinks with some senior British officers - military intelligence - at the weekend.

    What amazed me was how right wing they were. I was under some delusion that our troops had become softy PC lefties, like the police and the judiciary.

    If my encounter was representative, we have nothing to fear. If anything a quasi-Fascist coup by the Special Boat Service is the main worry.

    My plans for a Directly Elected Dictator are coming along well.
    Get out of there! They are my secret plans but by the Special Air Service.
  • Options

    Mr. Tyndall, and yet had we not a genocide was certain.

    It's a great shame Libya appears to be descending into chaos, but that does not make intervention in that instance wrong.

    It is just one of a whole number of reasons why intervention is this instance is wrong. It is proof yet again that we are perfectly capable of dropping a few bombs on people but, even after the debacle of Iraq, are incapable of thinking through the consequences of our action and how to rebuild a country afterwards. If anything Syria will be worse than Libya as we already know the extremists are well established in the Opposition.

    I think George Santayana said all we need to know about how the West has handled the successive interventions in the Middle East.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
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    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally I had drinks with some senior British officers - military intelligence - at the weekend.

    What amazed me was how right wing they were. I was under some delusion that our troops had become softy PC lefties, like the police and the judiciary.

    If my encounter was representative, we have nothing to fear. If anything a quasi-Fascist coup by the Special Boat Service is the main worry.

    My plans for a Directly Elected Dictator are coming along well.
    Get out of there! They are my secret plans but by the Special Air Service.
    The SAS are overrated, my plans involved 16AAB and The Gurkhas
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    RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    More from Militant Nelson "Those who have the most assets have done the best, while the poorest face inflation that outstrips earnings.But Labour are right to latch on to the caveat: the GDP number are not much use to someone facing a decade of wage stagnation. Words can be deceptive in economics: if you read ten news stories from ten forecasters talking about upgrades, it doesn’t necessarily mean things are getting better. The Treasury recently released five-year forecasts from the people it follows (pdf, here) and it’s not much better than the fairly glum forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.But what matters the gap between inflation and salary growth. Put the two together, and you get the kind of misery depicted below:-"
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    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally I had drinks with some senior British officers - military intelligence - at the weekend.

    What amazed me was how right wing they were. I was under some delusion that our troops had become softy PC lefties, like the police and the judiciary.

    If my encounter was representative, we have nothing to fear. If anything a quasi-Fascist coup by the Special Boat Service is the main worry.

    My plans for a Directly Elected Dictator are coming along well.
    Get out of there! They are my secret plans but by the Special Air Service.
    The SAS are overrated, my plans involved 16AAB and The Gurkhas
    The Gurkhas? That won't go down well with Phil Woolas!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    @DavidHerdson

    Oh, for goodness sake! Since when was 'attacking our sensibilities and values' a casus belli? (OK, since the War of Jenkin's Ear?)

    Can you imagine if that was laid down as a principle of international relations? How difficult would it be to stop North Korea lobbing missiles left, right and centre as Kim Il Nutcase III takes offence at, well, this post among half a million other things? Or for that matter, why shouldn't we lob some the other way on account of his government starving the population?

    Now, there is an argument that the use of chemical weapons crosses a line, however Syria is not actually a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention and as such isn't bound by international treaty not to use them (except as a signatory to the Geneva Protocol 1925 but that's more limited). It is arguable that their use is so horrific that it constitutes a crime against humanity or a threat to international stability - but if so, you'd think the UN Security Council ought at least to discuss it given that that's what it's there for.

    Gladstone and Woodrow Wilson must be grinning in their graves.


    Mr. Herdson, please note that my discussions with Dr. Prasannan are discrete and ethereal.

    And I had a grandmother, now long gone, who would remonstrate with her grandchildren by saying "That offends my ears" or "That offends my sensibilities". She was a very wise woman who knew how to build an empire.

    On the CW Convention (1925), I accept that Syria is only one of five states recognised by the UN not to be a signatory.

    I understand from LIAMT, who is a stickler on all matters legal, that Syria signed the Geneva "Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare" on 17 December 1968 (albeit with a reservation on recognition of Israel).

    The UNSC is the default but not the exclusive means of legitimising the response of the international community to a breach of international norms. In particular the UN "Responsibility to Protect" initiative confers a responsibility on the international community to intervene when a state fails in its own responsibilities to its citizens:

    1. A state has a responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing.

    2. The international community has a responsibility to assist the state to fulfill its primary responsibility.

    3. If the state manifestly fails to protect its citizens from the four above mass atrocities and peaceful measures have failed, the international community has the responsibility to intervene through coercive measures such as economic sanctions. Military intervention is considered the last resort.


    The UN and its members are not decided on whether "the responsibility to intervene" can only arise from a UNSC resolution.

    It also be noted, as I posted to LIAMT last night, that the UNSC is not a legal court or even arbitrator in legal disputes. It is a political body.

    All being said, Mr Herdson, I find my grandmother's interventions based on offence to her sensibilities to be a more practical and less ambiguous route to action.
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    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally I had drinks with some senior British officers - military intelligence - at the weekend.

    What amazed me was how right wing they were. I was under some delusion that our troops had become softy PC lefties, like the police and the judiciary.

    If my encounter was representative, we have nothing to fear. If anything a quasi-Fascist coup by the Special Boat Service is the main worry.

    My plans for a Directly Elected Dictator are coming along well.
    Get out of there! They are my secret plans but by the Special Air Service.
    The SAS are overrated, my plans involved 16AAB and The Gurkhas
    The Gurkhas? That won't go down well with Phil Woolas!
    He'd love them, he could use them to make the white folk angry.
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    SeanT said:

    RedRag1 said:

    More from Militant Nelson "Those who have the most assets have done the best, while the poorest face inflation that outstrips earnings.But Labour are right to latch on to the caveat: the GDP number are not much use to someone facing a decade of wage stagnation. Words can be deceptive in economics: if you read ten news stories from ten forecasters talking about upgrades, it doesn’t necessarily mean things are getting better. The Treasury recently released five-year forecasts from the people it follows (pdf, here) and it’s not much better than the fairly glum forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.But what matters the gap between inflation and salary growth. Put the two together, and you get the kind of misery depicted below:-"

    Wages and incomes have stagnated for decades in America - yet they kept electing Republican presidents.
    Not since 2004!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
    It would offend my eyes, TSE.

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    AveryLP said:

    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
    It would offend my eyes, TSE.

    I'm sorry it is in, and plus, I've managed to reference the chaos theory, so it is staying in.
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    David Aaronovitch in the Times has down a Syria/Ed is crap piece, and concludes with

    And though you can just about see how in a bad year Ed Miliband could become prime minister, what I cannot any longer pretend, after three years of his leadership, is that he would be a good one. On the contrary. I think he would be a disaster. Strangely, I think both the country and his party already know it.
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    SeanT said:

    RedRag1 said:

    More from Militant Nelson "Those who have the most assets have done the best, while the poorest face inflation that outstrips earnings.But Labour are right to latch on to the caveat: the GDP number are not much use to someone facing a decade of wage stagnation. Words can be deceptive in economics: if you read ten news stories from ten forecasters talking about upgrades, it doesn’t necessarily mean things are getting better. The Treasury recently released five-year forecasts from the people it follows (pdf, here) and it’s not much better than the fairly glum forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.But what matters the gap between inflation and salary growth. Put the two together, and you get the kind of misery depicted below:-"

    Wages and incomes have stagnated for decades in America - yet they kept electing Republican presidents. Wages and incomes are stagnant in Germany - Merkel is going to win there, too.

    A fall in living standards does not equate to a vote for the Left, not if voters fear the Left would make things EVEN WORSE. Arguably people are more likely to vote Right in belt-tightening times, as they believe Lefties are inherently useless at budgeting.
    It's more to do with whether the current Government have made life better or not, not whether they are left or right.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
    It would offend my eyes, TSE.

    I'm sorry it is in, and plus, I've managed to reference the chaos theory, so it is staying in.
    This place needs a top down reorganisation.

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    carlcarl Posts: 750

    David Aaronovitch in the Times has down a Syria/Ed is crap piece, and concludes with

    I think he would be a disaster.

    "unlike my warmongering hero Tony Blair".
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mirror front page great for Ed ....
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    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
    It would offend my eyes, TSE.

    I'm sorry it is in, and plus, I've managed to reference the chaos theory, so it is staying in.
    This place needs a top down reorganisation.

    I sincerely hope, Avery, that you are not planning any airstrikes against poor TSE!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Roger said:

    @Avery

    "Syria didn't attack the territory of Britain, Sunil. It attacked our sensibilities and values"

    A dangerously low bar Avery. An invitation for those who take their religion more seriously than us to take a pop.

    Talking of which Happy New Year!

    I hope Patisserie Valerie is serving apples dipped in honey today, Roger.

    Le'shana Tova Tikoseiv Vesichoseim.

    Is it in Israel's interest to have an Islamist Syria controlled by Jihadist elements on its Golan frontier?
    If that is a starter question for 10 points, Sunil, I think we had better wait for Grandiose to push the buzzer.

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited September 2013
    London weather:

    Thursday: 28 degrees
    Friday: 17 degrees

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Would PBers sensibilities be offended if I used the word "piss" in the morning thread?

    Not really, no.
    It would offend my eyes, TSE.

    I'm sorry it is in, and plus, I've managed to reference the chaos theory, so it is staying in.
    This place needs a top down reorganisation.

    I sincerely hope, Avery, that you are not planning any airstrikes against poor TSE!
    That information is only released on a needs to know basis, Sunil.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No you numpty it says Labour income to drop ny £9M a year.


    Can't you read ??
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    Andy_JS said:

    London weather:

    Thursday: 28 degrees
    Friday: 17 degrees

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

    And rain too Friday!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong. Decisive...
    And in this moment of crisis it became clear — as it does — what Mr Miliband is. A personable man (and he is a very pleasant companion), politically he is not a presence at all, he is an absence. He is Oedipal Ed, the negator of the unpopular actions of the fathers; the anti-Blair, the non-Brown. His technique for victory to is follow behind the leader, wait for a slip-up and exploit his or her mistakes. He did it to his brother. He hopes to do it to David Cameron. He is neither hunter nor prey, he is scavenger. He is a political vulture. Mission creep? His mission is all about creeping.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/davidaaronovitch/article3860789.ece
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    "American wage stagnation, amazingly, can be dated back to the 1970s."

    That was when the one per cent decided they wanted it all.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    The "unelectable" Tony Abbott continues to head for victory according to latest polls:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Iranian president tweets Rosh Hashanah greeting.
    Ostensibly reform-minded Hasan Rouhani wishes ‘all Jews, especially Iranian Jews’ a blessed new year

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-president-tweets-rosh-hashanah-greeting/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Can this be a real change in Iranian leadership to Israel also, or is it a PR gambit?

    Anyhow be that as it may: A Happy New Year to all my Jewish friends.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited September 2013
    Going to be interesting to see if this Shadow Cabinet Reshuffle shores up Ed Miliband's Leadership, or if it ends up weakening him yet further in the run up to the Labour Conference.
    Twitter
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 3m
    Sources at Westminster say Labour's reshuffle is underway tonight, with Shad ministers being consulted about their teams. Full deets trmw?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited September 2013
    The interesting question is not so much why average wages have been crap in America since the 1970s, but why they weren't crap in the 1950s and 1960s...

    Maybe it was because there was a sense of solidarity arising out of the war experience, with bosses prepared to give decent wages to employees because of those memories of working together in 1939-45.
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    carl said:

    David Aaronovitch in the Times has down a Syria/Ed is crap piece, and concludes with

    I think he would be a disaster.

    "unlike my warmongering hero Tony Blair".

    I wonder how many times you voted for warmonger Blair ? Did you go LD or other as the moral rot set in ?

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    fitalass said:

    Going to be interesting to see if this Shadow Cabinet Reshuffle shores up Ed Miliband's Leadership, or if it ends up weakening him yet further in the run up to the Labour Conference.
    Twitter
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 3m
    Sources at Westminster say Labour's reshuffle is underway tonight, with Shad ministers being consulted about their teams. Full deets trmw?

    Let's hope Ed makes up his mind before the new year.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited September 2013
    "Parliamentary porn consumption laid bare in official figures

    More than 300,000 attempts were made to access pornographic websites at the Houses of Parliament in the past year, official records suggest":


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23954447
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    Andy_JS said:

    The interesting question is not so much why average wages have been crap in America since the 1970s, but why they weren't crap in the 1950s and 1960s...

    Maybe it was because there was a sense of solidarity arising out of the war experience, with bosses prepared to give decent wages to employees because of those memories of working together in 1939-45.

    I am sure this is only one factor, but:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Union_membership_in_us_1930-2010.png
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    Andy_JS said:

    "American wage stagnation, amazingly, can be dated back to the 1970s."

    That was when the one per cent decided they wanted it all.

    Yep, and we were 15 years behind. All the MBA whizzkids caught up during the 80s.

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    carl said:

    David Aaronovitch in the Times has down a Syria/Ed is crap piece, and concludes with

    I think he would be a disaster.

    "unlike my warmongering hero Tony Blair".

    I wonder how many times you voted for warmonger Blair ? Did you go LD or other as the moral rot set in ?

    I voted Labour in 1997, then LD in 2001 and 2005. Then for Boris in 2008 (and 2012) and Dave in 2010.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    "Does pressing the pedestrian crossing button actually do anything?"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23869955

    I've often wondered about this in central London. It certainly does do something in most places.
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    TSE - As always, a great set of links.

    But I'm sorely disappointed. I eagerly clicked on link number 11 - hoping in my naivety to discover in what way 'Scottish politics is fun again' - only to be directed to yet another 'Ed is crap' article.
This discussion has been closed.