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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : December 14th 2017 and December Su

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : December 14th 2017 and December Summary

Bradwell on Newcastle under Lyme (Lab defence) Result: Con 360 (46% +22% on last time), Lab 396 (51% +5% on last time), Lib Dem 25 (3% unchanged on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -23%, No Green candidate this time -3%, No Independent candidate this time -1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 36 (5%) on a swing of 8.5% from Lab to Con

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Thanks Harry
  • Ooh was that that a first?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Insider information, TSE? :D
  • RobD said:

    Insider information, TSE? :D

    I was writing one of Sunday's threads and I noticed this thread was being readied for publication.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:
  • Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Not a single Leaver is stupid, racist or protectionist? Must be Russki bots pumping out all that crap.
  • Pussed, as they say in the Land of the Long White Cloud.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.
  • DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    More places should have exclamation marks in their names.
  • DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
    The wider point is that if the rebels now support the government TM should have a very good Christmas and we can all have a rest from Brexit
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    I thought she might have a reshuffle after the Xmas break but if the hornets are quiescent, she might not want to poke them with a stick.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,549

    DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
    But surely in practice all 27 EU countries will agree - just like they have this week.

    ie Juncker / Tusk will make the decision - if they say "Yes" then all 27 will say "Yes".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,213
    FPT @Andrew @Topping. We've had this GBP/USD discussion before (2017-01-15, 2016-10-08, 2016-07-26), and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on or immediately after January 1st each year since 2010.

    2010: 1.6150
    2011: 1.5610
    2012: 1.5507
    2013: 1.6245
    2014: 1.6554
    2015: 1.5571
    2016: 1.4740
    2017: 1.2302

    Yesterday: 1.3424

    Sources
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2017-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2017
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,213
    For a wider view, below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on or immediately after January 1st each decade start since 1980.

    1980-01-02: 2.2330
    1990-01-02: 1.6145
    2000-01-04: 1.6352
    2010-01-04: 1.6121

    Yesterday: 1.3424

    Sources
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2017
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2010
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2000
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-1990
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-1980
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,213
    tlg86 said:

    More places should have exclamation marks in their names.

    Or tildes. Or hashes. Or carets...

    "Where are you from, Ingmar? I from ~#@^::on-the-wold, Svensson. It is cold, yes? Ya..."
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,166
    MikeL said:

    DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
    But surely in practice all 27 EU countries will agree - just like they have this week.

    ie Juncker / Tusk will make the decision - if they say "Yes" then all 27 will say "Yes".
    Dream World
  • Derby Ward West Lancashire June 29th. Two party hegemony in West Lancashire weakened for first time in decades.
  • MikeL said:

    DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
    But surely in practice all 27 EU countries will agree - just like they have this week.

    ie Juncker / Tusk will make the decision - if they say "Yes" then all 27 will say "Yes".
    Unlike the negotiations this week, it has to be a specific vote and a unanimous decision to extend the talks. Yes they probably will. But is it certain? Absolutely not. It depends on what each country wants to extort to get the maximum benefit. Bear in mind that the final decision on the Brexit deal is by QMV so the extension vote is one of the few chances some countries will have to have any real sway over the talks.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192
    In response to @another_richard (fpt), who said this:-

    “' Similarly, in 2005 Labour withdrew two proposed posters which were criticised for recycling, whether intentionally or not, anti-Semitic tropes in the way they portrayed Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin. '

    Have you considered that the publicity those posters achieved was what was wanted ?

    I'm sure some in the Labour party would have been quite happy that members of a certain demographic, traditionally Labour voting but at that time disaffected because of Iraq, were informed that the Conservative leader was Jewish.”

    Yes I am cynical enough to think that was why they published them on a party website to allow members to decide which should be used. It shows that the problems with anti-semitism and dog whistle campaigns predate Corbyn and are not just confined to the loony right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    @Cyclefree - do you not mean loony left?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,538
    tlg86 said:

    More places should have exclamation marks in their names.

    Like Saint-Louis-du-Ha! Ha! Quebec, and Hamilton! Ohio.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192
    tlg86 said:

    @Cyclefree - do you not mean loony left?

    No. Loony right because I was referring to Farage’s dog whistle referendum campaign and his views on Jews which echo anti-semitic tropes and making the point that we have seen similar tactics within the Left as well, as @ another_richard had pointed out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    Lol! Just found the strapline for the flying pigs advert from 2005:

    "They say the Tory sums add up"

    Well, Labour's didn't, that's for sure!
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,166
    tlg86 said:

    Lol! Just found the strapline for the flying pigs advert from 2005:

    "They say the Tory sums add up"

    Well, Labour's didn't, that's for sure!

    And the Tories never have, or, will.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Cyclefree - do you not mean loony left?

    No. Loony right because I was referring to Farage’s dog whistle referendum campaign and his views on Jews which echo anti-semitic tropes and making the point that we have seen similar tactics within the Left as well, as @ another_richard had pointed out.
    I have to say I hadn't heard Farage make comments about Jews before but I see he made a remark in the context of Russian interference in the US election.

    Out of interest, do you think the poster before the referendum helped or hindered Leave?
  • I would like to nominate the by-election from a couple of weeks back where the LibDem candidate was called Leaver.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975
    viewcode said:

    For a wider view, below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on or immediately after January 1st each decade start since 1980.

    1980-01-02: 2.2330
    1990-01-02: 1.6145
    2000-01-04: 1.6352
    2010-01-04: 1.6121

    Yesterday: 1.3424

    Sources
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2017
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2010
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2000
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-1990
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-1980

    You'd conclude that the only way is up. Something to consider for those moving their investments out of the UK for fear of the Tories' nutty Brexit?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
  • DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the rebel alliance and the government have reached an agreement about Brexit day. It will be the date stipulated in the Act but the Minister will have the power to defer the date if negotiations are continuing.

    May doesn’t need any more defeats and I think Grieve recognises that.

    Trouble is that May will not have the power to defer it. That power will rest with the other 27 nations, every single one of whom will have to agree. This is rather like the rebel motion that was won on Wednesday. Whilst good because it sets a precedent, it is effectively meaningless as it is just like Cnut's advisors telling him he can stop the sea coming in.
    If we get to the 11th hour you've got to wonder what the likelihood is of a unanimous agreement to a deferral.

    Some countries will be as sick of the word Brexit as we will be and will probably be glad to get it over with.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538
    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?
  • Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
  • Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc
    That's a Ponzi scheme right there.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,584

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    "The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce"

    So the UK is a Population Ponzi scheme?

    You know what happens to those?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,538

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    You don't make yourself look particularly good by making the frankly moronic equivalence between not wanting freedom of movement and "hat[ing] the European immigrants".
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,837
    edited December 2017

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Could try to be more productive, efficient, innovative, automate and export more. Could try to educate, skill and improve the abilities of those we have. Could be less materialistic, live a healthier lifestyle, drink less in crap coffee in coffee chains and wash our own cars.

    If constant increase of population is the only answer then by definition it is not sustainable and can only provide a slow (or maybe quick) decline for most people.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538
    edited December 2017

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    I suspect it is ignorance rather than a desire to be offensive. He is thinking about the willingness of the British Empire to release India (even if in practice they had no choice) rather than Partition and the consequences thereof.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    I suspect it is ignorance rather than a desire to be offensive. He is thinking about the willingness of the British Empire to release India (even if in practice they had no choice) rather than Partition and the consequences thereof.
    We haven't had our post-Brexit partition yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,297

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    Confined to wearing just a loincloth, drinking his own urine and vowing to do no harm might be a start for Bozza.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538
    I've been meaning to ask.. A few weeks back there was a poultry roasting discussion. I said that birds should be roasted breast down.

    I didn't mention that the breasts should be turned up again for the last 15 mins or so to crisp the skin up.

    I also didn't mention that I didn't make this up, I was told it by a dear friend who went to Pru Leith's cookery school. And it really does give you the juiciest breasts.

    Has anyone else tried it?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192
    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Cyclefree - do you not mean loony left?

    No. Loony right because I was referring to Farage’s dog whistle referendum campaign and his views on Jews which echo anti-semitic tropes and making the point that we have seen similar tactics within the Left as well, as @ another_richard had pointed out.
    I have to say I hadn't heard Farage make comments about Jews before but I see he made a remark in the context of Russian interference in the US election.

    Out of interest, do you think the poster before the referendum helped or hindered Leave?
    I wasn’t here in the last week so did not see it at the time. So I find it hard to say.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818
    edited December 2017

    A dear friend went to Pru Leith's cookery school. And it really does give you the juiciest breasts.

    My mind is really in the gutter

    But many of the girls at Pru Leiths are truly delightful
  • Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    I suspect it is ignorance rather than a desire to be offensive. He is thinking about the willingness of the British Empire to release India (even if in practice they had no choice) rather than Partition and the consequences thereof.
    Never mind the offensiveness (which should be taken as a given with Letts), it's historically absurd. Independence didn't happen overnight for India (and Pakistan): it took a quarter of a century of hard campaigning to win - and even then was substantially affected by the impact of WWII. It's one of history's great unknowns as to how things would have panned out had the Government of India Act (1935) been fully implemented.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    I suspect it is ignorance rather than a desire to be offensive. He is thinking about the willingness of the British Empire to release India (even if in practice they had no choice) rather than Partition and the consequences thereof.
    We haven't had our post-Brexit partition yet.
    still don't think many would die as a consequence even if it happened, which I suspect it won't
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,312

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Can you cite any documented examples of Polish ladies who have done this?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538
    tlg86 said:


    Out of interest, do you think the poster before the referendum helped or hindered Leave?

    I know you didn't ask me, but I think it did help leave.

    I don't and didn't like it, but it did remind me of what Merkel had just done. As I'm sure it was designed to do.

    I would never have seen the poster if it weren't for the angry reporting of how evil it was.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,104
    SunnyJim said:

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc
    That's a Ponzi scheme right there.
    +1
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Can you cite any documented examples of Polish ladies who have done this?
    proof of a hypothetical is a tad difficult
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,154
    edited December 2017
    Austria has a new government, which may not be wholly to the liking of sniffy EU bureaucrats. Austria holds the EU presidency in the second half of 2018 i.e. when the Phase 2 talks get serious.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics/austrias-kurz-strikes-deal-to-bring-far-right-into-government-idUSKBN1E928K?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5a344cf004d3010dbdd667b1&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649

    Austria has a new government, which may not be wholly to the liking of sniffy EU bureaucrats. Austria holds the EU presidency in the second half of 2018 i.e. when the Phase 2 talks get serious.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics/austrias-kurz-strikes-deal-to-bring-far-right-into-government-idUSKBN1E928K?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5a344cf004d3010dbdd667b1&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    Much as the EU likes to pretend otherwise, it seems to me that the EU is not in the halest of health. Oh dear, does that make us rats?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,538

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Can you cite any documented examples of Polish ladies who have done this?
    No. And I apologise to the Poles for singling them out there. Any EU national can do it.

    But given that it's currently illegal under EU law to stop that happening, would you bet it hasn't happened, or near enough, many times?
  • Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    I suspect it is ignorance rather than a desire to be offensive. He is thinking about the willingness of the British Empire to release India (even if in practice they had no choice) rather than Partition and the consequences thereof.
    Never mind the offensiveness (which should be taken as a given with Letts), it's historically absurd. Independence didn't happen overnight for India (and Pakistan): it took a quarter of a century of hard campaigning to win - and even then was substantially affected by the impact of WWII. It's one of history's great unknowns as to how things would have panned out had the Government of India Act (1935) been fully implemented.
    The 1935 Act formed the basis of India's interim constitution between 1947 and 1950 (when she became a Republic).
  • It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827

    tlg86 said:


    Out of interest, do you think the poster before the referendum helped or hindered Leave?

    I know you didn't ask me, but I think it did help leave.

    I don't and didn't like it, but it did remind me of what Merkel had just done. As I'm sure it was designed to do.

    I would never have seen the poster if it weren't for the angry reporting of how evil it was.
    I think most of the outrage was because it did precisely what you've described. My biggest problem with it is that I'm not sure it's that much of an issue - I think most of those who went to Germany will stay in Europe. But I think it was perfectly legitimate to bring it up.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649
    edited December 2017

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    I don't think the right to work is really the issue for many, either on here or in the country as a whole, barring the unionised bit.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited December 2017

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Don't you watch all those Channel 5 benefits porn shows? Councils demand hard proof that you have been made homeless by bona fide circumstance. If you are suspected to have intentionally made yourself homeless the council will refuse to help, kids or not.

    Even if your Polish lady wangled accommodation from the council it would most likely be in a grotty B&B for a year or two before she could even dream of a flat or house. Plenty of families have been stuck in that situation for years on end.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    twitter.com/ScotNational/status/941789744559788032

    Will they be publishing this advice?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649
    HHemmelig said:

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Don't you watch all those Channel 5 benefits porn shows? Councils demand hard proof that you have been made homeless by bona fide circumstance. If you are suspected to have intentionally made yourself homeless the council will refuse to help, kids or not.

    Even if your Polish lady wangled accommodation from the council it would most likely be in a grotty B&B for a year or two before she could even dream of a flat or house. Plenty of families have been stuck in that situation for years on end.
    Without having seen the programmes you mention, those "plenty of families" must feel that it's better than the alternative?
  • HHemmelig said:

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Don't you watch all those Channel 5 benefits porn shows? Councils demand hard proof that you have been made homeless by bona fide circumstance. If you are suspected to have intentionally made yourself homeless the council will refuse to help, kids or not.

    Even if your Polish lady wangled accommodation from the council it would most likely be in a grotty B&B for a year or two before she could even dream of a flat or house. Plenty of families have been stuck in that situation for years on end.
    Without having seen the programmes you mention, those "plenty of families" must feel that it's better than the alternative?
    It's better than the alternative for society as well, unless you want to return to a Dickensian past of innocent children forced to sleep on the streets.
  • It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    This weighed heavily on my mind in the run up to the referendum because i'd always planned to have a second home in the Med for retirement.

    It wasn't enough however to outweigh my feeling that this was only ever going to be a one-shot option for leaving. If Remain had won I doubt very much we'd see another referendum on the subject in my lifetime.

  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,261
    edited December 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Is it possible to not want freedom of movement and to not be a stupid racist?

    The problem with that argument is the UK is going to get huge immigration whether the UK is in the EU or not. So those who hated the European immigrants will now have a different target, which will be from countries outside of Europe. The UK economy needs an ever expanding workforce to keep paying out for pensions, benefits, the NHS etc as demographics left to themselves would have the proportion of working taxpayers fall relative to those in receipt of government transfers.
    Legal immigration may well remain very high, and that will be the choice of the government in power.

    Do you think any of those future governments will decide that any Polish lady with a kid should be allowed to declare herself homeless on the day of her arrival here, and so be moved ahead of all childless homeless people in the desperate scramble for state aided accommodation?
    Don't you watch all those Channel 5 benefits porn shows? Councils demand hard proof that you have been made homeless by bona fide circumstance. If you are suspected to have intentionally made yourself homeless the council will refuse to help, kids or not.

    Even if your Polish lady wangled accommodation from the council it would most likely be in a grotty B&B for a year or two before she could even dream of a flat or house. Plenty of families have been stuck in that situation for years on end.
    Without having seen the programmes you mention, those "plenty of families" must feel that it's better than the alternative?
    It's better than the alternative for society as well, unless you want to return to a Dickensian past of innocent children forced to sleep on the streets.
    you missed off the chimney bit!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,856

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Freedom of Movement is liberty that can only be taken away by jobsworths and those who impose their prejudices on other people.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    Well we all have Irish nationality as well so are in the same position.

    To be fair, though, I do remember the world before membership when my Italian mother had no difficulty living here and we all routinely travelled round Europe and I spent time living in Europe with my Italian family.

    I appreciate that I benefited. Others may have a different perspective if they only or largely saw downsides.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,649

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    Corporal Jones has some advice for you, even if he's more worried than you
  • FF43 said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Freedom of Movement is taking a liberty that can only be supported by those who impose their prejudices on other people.
    Fixed it for you.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,261
    edited December 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    Well we all have Irish nationality as well so are in the same position.

    To be fair, though, I do remember the world before membership when my Italian mother had no difficulty living here and we all routinely travelled round Europe and I spent time living in Europe with my Italian family.

    I appreciate that I benefited. Others may have a different perspective if they only or largely saw downsides.
    I'm not sure immigration was such a big deal in the days before cheap mass transport made large-scale migration possible. Now, of course, it is a different matter.

    And, yes, I realise that others experience or perceive mostly the downsides of FoM. I was just pointing out that it does have an upside for many of us in terms of personal freedom, leaving aside economic considerations.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,856
    SunnyJim said:

    FF43 said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Freedom of Movement is taking a liberty that can only be supported by those who impose their prejudices on other people.
    Fixed it for you.
    I kind of object to this because someone reading that blockquote might think I actually wrote it. I know you are making a point, which you are perfectly entitled to do, of course.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited December 2017

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    All that applies to me as well. I'm happy my kids are dual UK-US nationals. Fortunately the "end to free movement" much trumpeted by the government is likely to amount to diddly squat in reality. Perhaps a work permit scheme that is basically a formality, and a few tweaks to benefit entitlements will be permitted, but all that will realistically achieve is enabling us to deport a few Romanian beggars. The 99% of migrants who are here to work hard won't be deterred and nor will business allow the government to keep them out. The fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger full of Spanish baristas. A significant minority of Leave voters will feel very angry but for most life will just move on.
  • FF43 said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Freedom of Movement is liberty that can only be taken away by jobsworths and those who impose their prejudices on other people.
    Best I can do is re-quote your original.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,856
    SunnyJim said:

    FF43 said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Freedom of Movement is liberty that can only be taken away by jobsworths and those who impose their prejudices on other people.
    Best I can do is re-quote your original.
    Thanks!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    HHemmelig said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    All that applies to me as well. I'm happy my kids are dual UK-US nationals. Fortunately the "end to free movement" much trumpeted by the government is likely to amount to diddly squat in reality. Perhaps a work permit scheme that is basically a formality, and a few tweaks to benefit entitlements will be permitted, but all that will realistically achieve is enabling us to deport a few Romanian beggars. The 99% of migrants who are here to work hard won't be deterred and nor will business allow the government to keep them out. The fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger full of Spanish baristas. A significant minority of Leave voters will feel very angry but for most life will just move on.
    What work permits will do is ensure we only get high skilled workers we need not mass low skilled migration undermining the wages of the less well paid, exactly as polls show voters want to be a result of Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    By 2021 there will likely be a unionist majority at Holyrood and Nicola Sturgeon may even no longer be First Minister according to the latest Scottish Parliament election polls
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,166
    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    All that applies to me as well. I'm happy my kids are dual UK-US nationals. Fortunately the "end to free movement" much trumpeted by the government is likely to amount to diddly squat in reality. Perhaps a work permit scheme that is basically a formality, and a few tweaks to benefit entitlements will be permitted, but all that will realistically achieve is enabling us to deport a few Romanian beggars. The 99% of migrants who are here to work hard won't be deterred and nor will business allow the government to keep them out. The fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger full of Spanish baristas. A significant minority of Leave voters will feel very angry but for most life will just move on.
    What work permits will do is ensure we only get high skilled workers we need not mass low skilled migration undermining the wages of the less well paid, exactly as polls show voters want to be a result of Brexit
    Oh, the so innocent meanderings of the incompetent. In the UK we do not have the numbers of low skilled wanting to accept the level of pay for the hard work required or, the numbers of highly qualified and experienced people able to pay the taxes to keep the UK pensioners in the life style they would find acceptable....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's interesting that everyone seems to see freedom of movement purely in terms of immigration to the UK. Is nobody concerned about the loss of the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU?

    Yes, I am. And have said so before on here. Both for myself and my children.
    For me the potential loss of the right to live and work in the EU was a major reason for voting to remain. It's a right that I have made good use of and may well have wished to use again in the future and is a very tangible loss of freedom. My son, fortunately, has dual British and German nationality and will therefore enjoy a positive advantage in the future labour market, so it's not all bad at a personal level!
    All that applies to me as well. I'm happy my kids are dual UK-US nationals. Fortunately the "end to free movement" much trumpeted by the government is likely to amount to diddly squat in reality. Perhaps a work permit scheme that is basically a formality, and a few tweaks to benefit entitlements will be permitted, but all that will realistically achieve is enabling us to deport a few Romanian beggars. The 99% of migrants who are here to work hard won't be deterred and nor will business allow the government to keep them out. The fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger full of Spanish baristas. A significant minority of Leave voters will feel very angry but for most life will just move on.
    What work permits will do is ensure we only get high skilled workers we need not mass low skilled migration undermining the wages of the less well paid, exactly as polls show voters want to be a result of Brexit
    Oh, the so innocent meanderings of the incompetent. In the UK we do not have the numbers of low skilled wanting to accept the level of pay for the hard work required or, the numbers of highly qualified and experienced people able to pay the taxes to keep the UK pensioners in the life style they would find acceptable....
    The more low skilled workers there are inevitably the lower the average wage for those jobs, work permits will still enable those high skilled workers we need to come here
  • RobD said:

    twitter.com/ScotNational/status/941789744559788032

    Will they be publishing this advice?
    I'd imagine a freely available newspaper quoting a 'top expert' qualifies as been published.
  • HYUFD said:

    By 2021 there will likely be a unionist majority at Holyrood and Nicola Sturgeon may even no longer be First Minister according to the latest Scottish Parliament election polls
    Yeah.

    Ruth Davidson for FM.

    No, I meant Kezia Dugdale for FM.

    No, no, I meant Richard Thingummy for FM.

  • Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    -1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975

    Nou Fil

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975

    Cyclefree said:

    Citizen of somewhere calls for a ceasefire:

    Did he read my header?
    It seems not everyone did.
    I think the QL twitter post is offensive. It is estimated one to two million people died as a result of Indian Independence and the consequential partition of India and Pakistan into two states. I don't think Brexit is remotely in the same league, yes I am one of those who can be described as a Remain supporter but this is only because I see Brexit as a diminution of future economic output and political influence.

    There will not be massacres as a result of Brexit.

    I have always thought QL is a complete prat and his attempts at trying to be funny have always fallen on sterile ground as far as I am concerned.
    +1
    -1
    +2
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975
    The LibDem win from nowhere (haven't stood this century) in that Gosport ward must be worth a write up, Harry #FaveLocals2017
This discussion has been closed.