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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

In the past week, whilst it has felt that there’s nothing happening in British politics other than Syria, yesterday saw a story that may have a crucial impact on the 2015 general election.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Dominic Sandbrook blogs on Rightminds in the Daily Mail - Poor, floundering Mr Miliband may have just signed his own political death warrant
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "Conservative Erna Solberg seems likely to emerge as prime minister from Monday's Norwegian elections on promises to cut taxes, improve health care and sell off some oil assets, but may be forced into a tricky alliance with a populist anti-immigration party."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/uk-norway-election-idUKBRE9820GS20130903
  • Strong stuff from David Aaronovitch in today's Times:

    "And though you can just about see how in a bad year Ed Miliband could become prime minister, what I cannot any longer pretend, after three years of his leadership, is that he would be a good one. On the contrary. I think he would be a disaster. Strangely, I think both the country and his party already know it."
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    How will the GMB decide which 150,000 members are affiliated to Labour?

    If there was another Labour leadership election they would surely have to know which 150,000 members were affiliated as the GMB would presumably only be allowed to send out 150,000 ballot papers.
  • I can't see how it's likely to happen but imperceptibly those odds of 4/1 from Hills and Ladbrokes on Miliband being replaced before the next GE appear ever more attractive.

    But then as someone once said: "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. On this basis, perhaps Laddies' price of 10/1 that he's gone by the year end offers the better value.

    For Aaronovitch of all people to speak as bluntly of Miliband as he has in today's Times is nothing short of sensational.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    It's starting to look as if we're in the early stages of a 100% personal character assassination of Ed Miliband by the right wing press.

    I think we're moving into a new phase where their dislike of Cameron is being put to one side and they are going for a full scale "Kinnockisation" of Ed M - not just attacking Labour policies but constantly ramming home the message that he isn't fit to be PM.

    The Daily Mail editorial a few days ago saying Cameron was by far the best person in the Conservative Party to be PM confirms this new phase - they've given up on trying to destabilise Cameron and are going 100% for Ed M.
  • MikeL said:

    It's starting to look as if we're in the early stages of a 100% personal character assassination of Ed Miliband by the right wing press.

    I think we're moving into a new phase where their dislike of Cameron is being put to one side and they are going for a full scale "Kinnockisation" of Ed M - not just attacking Labour policies but constantly ramming home the message that he isn't fit to be PM.

    The Daily Mail editorial a few days ago saying Cameron was by far the best person in the Conservative Party to be PM confirms this new phase - they've given up on trying to destabilise Cameron and are going 100% for Ed M.

    Well there's a first - seeing David Aaronovitch described as "the right wing press".
  • Given this started with tim's Falkirk "non-story" should we expect complete silence from him?
  • The lesson for Ed in all of this is don't listen to the Blairites. *Never* listen to the Blairites.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Buxxer the right wing press. Leave it to its wide-eyed readers. Ed of course knew what he was getting into. Money is always a tight subject, but, for what it's worth, at least they'll get twice as much from me.
  • The lesson for Ed in all of this is don't listen to the Blairites. *Never* listen to the Blairites.

    That's a good general principle, but I think the effect on the party funding is being over-stated. Presumably they'll be able to charge a higher fee that 3 pounds to the people who opt it, and they'll also be able to communicate with them directly to do follow-up fund-raising. Meanwhile the union still has the original amount in its political fund, and may decide to give it to Labour anyway come the general election.

    I suppose it's possible they'll have to run a leaner Euro campaign, but was money a big issue there in the first place?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Labour surely not one of The Co-Op bank's bad debts.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited September 2013
    Latest YouGov/The Sun results 4th September - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -23

    Yesterday's App was -31 with a Labour lead of 4

    Only one internal:

    Do you support or oppose the Con/LD coalition?

    Support: 29 (+1)
    Oppose:60(-2)

    BUT for the Cons:
    Support: 53
    Oppose: 42

    which is less support than the LibDems:
    Support: 67
    Oppose: 30
  • Eric Joyce mat well have started a process that leads Labour to become a much broader based, mass membership, modern social democratic party. That would be marvellous news for one and all. Though it will destroy the union paymasters meme so beloved of the Tories.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    How funny can politics be ? According to the PBTories, Hollande was a wet blanket. Now they are having to revise their opinion thanks to his "robust" stance. The UMP , on the other hand, are not giving a blank cheque and many are downright against intervention in Syria.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited September 2013
    ***** Betting Post ***** (for the very brave)

    If, and it’s a very big if, Miliband were to be toppled or, even less likely, if he were to resign before the next GE, who might succeed him?
    Leaving aside the obvious favourites, none of which appear to me to offer any sort of betting value, and bearing in mind that the battleground is likely to be the economy stupid, then who better to be Labour’s standard bearer than the ever dependable and hugely respected …….. drum roll …… Alistair Darling.
    The really good news is that those nice people at Hills have him on offer at 80/1 to be the next Prime Minister (twice the current odds available with Betfair) and curiously five times the 16/1 odds the same bookie is offering against Darling being Labour’s next leader.
    An added bonus is that such a bet would have considerable residual value were Cameron to win the next General Election, probably thereby resulting in Miliband’s resignation – Labour would then be likely to look for a heavyweight leader with gravitas to take on Dave, rather than one of their young pretenders such as Chuka Umanna or, God help us, Rachel Reeves. Punters therefore effectively get two chances with this bet for the (generous) price of one, although in the latter case one might need to be somewhat patient before collecting!
    DYOR.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Should we be discussing anything in a paper that cant spell 'truth'?
  • Roger said:

    Should we be discussing anything in a paper that cant spell 'truth'?

    It's one of those silly puns so beloved by ad-men Roger.......

  • OT - anyone else having problems with Vanilla on Safari? Blasted thing keeps signing me out then won't let me sign back in again - or will it only let you sign in on one device?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    The GMB's action not "just" a negotiating tactic, is it? Akin to recommending a strike which subsequently never happens?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Was Ed Balls part of the Labour Government of 1997-2010, who remained silent in discussions about the lack of infrastructure spending by Gordon Brown?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23967552

    Is he learning from his master's mistakes?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Carlotta

    "It's one of those silly puns so beloved by ad-men Roger......."

    Ah!....thank you for that.

    Jaffa nice day!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    At this rate we will have Labour collapsing in the stench of its own financial incompetence and the Conservatives reduced to 2 old ladies and a pekinese as Dave turns everybody off. The 2020 election will be UKIP v LDs. PM Clegg or Farage ?
  • Tim - if as is rumoured a significant cabinet re-shuffle is imminent then we are in dead heat territory as regards bookies' odds.
    For my money PP's odds of 25/1 for Eric Pickles, tipped to take the non-cabinet position of Chief Whip, looks the best buy.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move.This is the man who thinks twice and rehearses it in his head before he even says a word.The brothers will eventually make up and make adequate donations before the general election.They hate this government for goodness` sake.
  • tim said:

    The GMB's action not "just" a negotiating tactic, is it? Akin to recommending a strike which subsequently never happens?


    2008

    "The GMB union has voted to cut funding to a third of the 108 Labour MPs it sponsors, saying they have failed to back its policies."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7443528.stm

    Didn't happen, cut it to a dozen or so I seem to remember.
    Threatened something similar in 2009, didn't happen.
    How does this work procedurally? Is there another body that has to ratify the executive's decision, or do the executive just make a new decision reversing their old one?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    SMukesh said:

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move.This is the man who thinks twice and rehearses it in his head before he even says a word.The brothers will eventually make up and make adequate donations before the general election.They hate this government for goodness` sake.

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move

    He's got previous. See Syria.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    SMukesh said:

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move.This is the man who thinks twice and rehearses it in his head before he even says a word.The brothers will eventually make up and make adequate donations before the general election.They hate this government for goodness` sake.

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move

    He's got previous. See Syria.
    I think you mean Cameron.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Alanbrooke

    "At this rate we will have Labour collapsing in the stench of its own financial incompetence"

    After messing around with puns I read that as 'faecial incontinence' and thought it must be the Irish poet in you....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is surprisingly similar but not as vicious as Mr Aaronovitch who really is off the reservation. For a stalwart of the ex-Communist Left - he's not a happy bunny.

    "...Still, since his supposed friends are giving him such a kicking, perhaps we should not be too harsh to poor Mr Miliband. Behind all his trials and tribulations, there is a deeper issue at stake: the future of the Labour Party itself.

    It is astonishing to think that even now, three years after losing power, Labour has still not decided what it stands for. Is it for deficit reduction, or against it? Does it support intervention overseas, or not? Would it really oppose a European referendum?

    And above all, whom does it really represent? Britain’s 6.5 million trade unionists, marshalled by their general secretaries? Or somebody else?

    We will, I suspect, be waiting an awfully long time before we get the answers to those questions. But by then, unless his fortunes undergo a miraculous recovery, Ed Miliband’s leadership may well belong to history.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2411828/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Poor-floundering-Mr-Miliband-just-signed-political-death-warrant.html#ixzz2dzrNFZeB
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Roger said:

    @Alanbrooke

    "At this rate we will have Labour collapsing in the stench of its own financial incompetence"

    After messing around with puns I read that as 'faecial incontinence' and thought it must be the Irish poet in you....

    Roger, I often have a an Irish poet in me this time of the morning, though it does make using the bathroom difficult.
  • tim said:

    Tim - if as is rumoured a significant cabinet re-shuffle is imminent then we are in dead heat territory as regards bookies' odds.
    For my money PP's odds of 25/1 for Eric Pickles, tipped to take the non-cabinet position of Chief Whip, looks the best buy.

    I thought this cabinet reshuffle was the one which affected junior ministers (Cameron needs to line up some women for promotion next June after the European elections put him under pressure)


    "David Cameron has admitted he has not appointed enough women to his Cabinet and revealed his wife urges him to promote female talent."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9876685/David-Cameron-I-did-not-appoint-enough-women-to-Cabinet.html

    After he bottled the Syria issue following Sam Cams tent photoshoots he'll have some issues if he doesn't promote some women


    Re-shuffle or not, Young is said to be keen to quit as Chief Whip, a view possibly shared by Cameron after recent events and Eric is the obvious choice to take his place(s).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour
    "Throughout the programme the DWP has lacked a detailed view of how Universal Credit is meant to work". NAO's devastating verdict today.

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour
    NAO report on UC shows Ministers have been asked to prepare a new business case for the Treasury before scheme continues this Autumn.

    Osborne has been trying to get IDS out for a while, and cocked up his attempt in the last reshuffle.
    Whether IDS wants to stick around for this is a matter for debate, 16/1 next out at Ladbrokes, for some reason the only market up and with huge overrounds.

    Does IDS still have any support on the backbenches, and if he does do his supporters have any stamps?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move.This is the man who thinks twice and rehearses it in his head before he even says a word.The brothers will eventually make up and make adequate donations before the general election.They hate this government for goodness` sake.

    You really think Ed didn`t think it through before he made his union move

    He's got previous. See Syria.
    I think you mean Cameron.
    Cameron doesn't really stand for much, Miliband stands for even less.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.

    That's a bit far-fetched, tim.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Withering.

    "...From the Coalition side there simply came a growl, a rumble of irritation, a restlessness. They were not inclined to regard Mr Miliband as a grown-up.

    ‘There is no difference across this House on the need to stand up for the innocent people of Syria,’ insisted Mr Miliband, fighting to control this mood of dissent. That claim proved too rich for several MPs. From where I was sitting, I saw arms crossed, mouths set in expressions of mutiny. Quite a few people looked at the floor while others inspected the ceiling.

    ‘The question at issue...’ continued Mr Miliband. But the Chamber was spilling into open dissent. Mr Miliband switched to a tone of rebuke. ‘The House has approached this issue, so far, in a calm and measured way, and we should carry on doing that,’ he said.

    This did not stop the muttering. The House did not intend to reward him by giving vent to bald abuse but it made plain it was not charmed or impressed by the adolescent’s approach. There was little appetite yesterday, on all sides, to regard Mr Miliband as a statesman.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2411809/QUENTIN-LETTS-Why-angry-Cameron-shot-motionless-Miliband-look-withering-scorn.html#ixzz2dztVAjuF

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    The GMB's action not "just" a negotiating tactic, is it? Akin to recommending a strike which subsequently never happens?


    2008

    "The GMB union has voted to cut funding to a third of the 108 Labour MPs it sponsors, saying they have failed to back its policies."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7443528.stm

    Didn't happen, cut it to a dozen or so I seem to remember.
    Threatened something similar in 2009, didn't happen.
    How does this work procedurally? Is there another body that has to ratify the executive's decision, or do the executive just make a new decision reversing their old one?
    What happens is that the GMB executive claim they are cutting funding to a local MP, the MP says "OK then I'll go and get sponsorship from another union" and the GMB maintain funding but shut up about it until five years later.

    The PB Tories think this decision is something to do with Ed Miliband.
    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.
    Labour's funding problems might have less to do with the Unions and more to do with how the Co-op is restructured.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Strong stuff from David Aaronovitch in today's Times:

    "And though you can just about see how in a bad year Ed Miliband could become prime minister, what I cannot any longer pretend, after three years of his leadership, is that he would be a good one. On the contrary. I think he would be a disaster. Strangely, I think both the country and his party already know it."

    "Three years" !!!! - Get with the programme DA, some of us have known Ed was a dud from day one of his "leadership" !!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.

    That's a bit far-fetched, tim.
    Not really, they're just about to start a drive to explain where the political fund gets spent, and there's a common misconception that it all goes to the Labour Party.


    No, tim, it is far-fetched. Trade unions dont need to threaten to slash funding to the Labor party to win political fund ballots in the current environment. They just need to point at what the Coalition is doing. The latest 'yes' votes in political fund ballots have been running at 80% to 90%. The GMB is making a statement unrelated to its political fund ballot.
  • tim said:




    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes
    I would now be surprised if the Universal Credit ever did appear, rather than surprised if it didn't.

    I wonder if any PB Tories have anything to contribute?

    don't think I'm a pbtory (need at least 2 nominations and handshake for that?)

    but:

    forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?

    its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?
  • tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    "I lost faith in the ability of ciivl servants to manage this " - Ian Duncan Smith on Universal Credit @bbcbreakfast

    Ha ha.
    From the bloke who's statistics fall apart by lunchtime every time he issues any.

    As we know, someone else is always to blame when it comes to the Tories. They are the "it's not me, guv, it's his fault" party.

  • tim said:




    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes
    I would now be surprised if the Universal Credit ever did appear, rather than surprised if it didn't.

    I wonder if any PB Tories have anything to contribute?

    don't think I'm a pbtory (need at least 2 nominations and handshake for that?)

    but:

    forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?

    its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?

    You'd have thought that a Tory minister, aware of the absolute balls-ups there were with IT project balls-ups under Labour, might have listened to the many, many warnings he was given and done something to ensure there were no repetitions of previous mistakes. But IDS knew best; until, that is, it all went wrong. Again. Then it became someone else's fault.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Roger said:

    @Alanbrooke

    "At this rate we will have Labour collapsing in the stench of its own financial incompetence"

    After messing around with puns I read that as 'faecial incontinence' and thought it must be the Irish poet in you....

    Roger, I often have a an Irish poet in me this time of the morning, though it does make using the bathroom difficult.
    Oh er Missus.

  • tim said:



    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes
    I would now be surprised if the Universal Credit ever did appear, rather than surprised if it didn't.

    I wonder if any PB Tories have anything to contribute?

    don't think I'm a pbtory (need at least 2 nominations and handshake for that?)

    but:

    forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?

    its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?
    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tim said:

    tim said:

    The GMB's action not "just" a negotiating tactic, is it? Akin to recommending a strike which subsequently never happens?


    2008

    "The GMB union has voted to cut funding to a third of the 108 Labour MPs it sponsors, saying they have failed to back its policies."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7443528.stm

    Didn't happen, cut it to a dozen or so I seem to remember.
    Threatened something similar in 2009, didn't happen.
    How does this work procedurally? Is there another body that has to ratify the executive's decision, or do the executive just make a new decision reversing their old one?
    What happens is that the GMB executive claim they are cutting funding to a local MP, the MP says "OK then I'll go and get sponsorship from another union" and the GMB maintain funding but shut up about it until five years later.

    The PB Tories think this decision is something to do with Ed Miliband.
    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.
    Labour's funding problems might have less to do with the Unions and more to do with how the Co-op is restructured.
    I think the days of nice loans for their chums are over for the coop.
  • tim said:



    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes
    I would now be surprised if the Universal Credit ever did appear, rather than surprised if it didn't.

    I wonder if any PB Tories have anything to contribute?

    don't think I'm a pbtory (need at least 2 nominations and handshake for that?)

    but:

    forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?

    its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?
    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

  • tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    "I lost faith in the ability of ciivl servants to manage this " - Ian Duncan Smith on Universal Credit @bbcbreakfast

    Ha ha.
    From the bloke who's statistics fall apart by lunchtime every time he issues any.

    As we know, someone else is always to blame when it comes to the Tories. They are the "it's not me, guv, it's his fault" party.
    "It started in America......nowt to do with us....."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's really amusing to see how much more tribal PB has become over the last week or so - today is a case in point where there's very little actual exchange of views just talking to each other who we already agree with in a mutual grooming session!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    The GMB's action not "just" a negotiating tactic, is it? Akin to recommending a strike which subsequently never happens?


    2008

    "The GMB union has voted to cut funding to a third of the 108 Labour MPs it sponsors, saying they have failed to back its policies."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7443528.stm

    Didn't happen, cut it to a dozen or so I seem to remember.
    Threatened something similar in 2009, didn't happen.
    How does this work procedurally? Is there another body that has to ratify the executive's decision, or do the executive just make a new decision reversing their old one?
    What happens is that the GMB executive claim they are cutting funding to a local MP, the MP says "OK then I'll go and get sponsorship from another union" and the GMB maintain funding but shut up about it until five years later.

    The PB Tories think this decision is something to do with Ed Miliband.
    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.
    Labour's funding problems might have less to do with the Unions and more to do with how the Co-op is restructured.
    Oh dear, I wouldn't be taking Dan Hodges crazed fantasy piece from last night too seriously.


    Actually tim, I was reading about the grilling the former Coop CEO got and the deep brown stuff the Coop is in, where their capital requirements are running above the £1.5 bn hole previously estimated. As a high profile client and with numerous bondholders about to get a haircut, Labour have a better than average chance of getting caught in the maelstrom. Any Board offering special terms to Labour not only runs the risk of challenges to their fiduciary responsibilities but also a wave of protests from SMEs who will be getting their banking facility cut. The Coop will have to shrink its lending portfolio to meet capital requirements and it's hard to see how Labour can win on this; if their overdraft is reduced then Labour have a major cash squeeze, if it stays then Labour are in a shitstorm as SMEs and bondholders fill the media with "one rule for them" stories.

    Moral of the story, never buy a used bank from Gordon Brown - Britannia's killing them.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Just over a day and an hour to the start of the first practice session. Early discussion is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/italy-early-discussion.html

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    tim said:

    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Of course they won't have spotted the fact that the ballot on maintaining the GMB political fund is due in 2014, this is part of the executives campaign to win that ballot.

    That's a bit far-fetched, tim.
    Not really, they're just about to start a drive to explain where the political fund gets spent, and there's a common misconception that it all goes to the Labour Party.


    No, tim, it is far-fetched. Trade unions dont need to threaten to slash funding to the Labor party to win political fund ballots in the current environment. They just need to point at what the Coalition is doing. The latest 'yes' votes in political fund ballots have been running at 80% to 90%. The GMB is making a statement unrelated to its political fund ballot.
    When they threatened to cut funding to 108 candidates in 2008 how many did they actually go through with, about one tenth?
    And that episode had bugger all to do with political fund ballots too, didnt it?

  • tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    "I lost faith in the ability of ciivl servants to manage this " - Ian Duncan Smith on Universal Credit @bbcbreakfast

    Ha ha.
    From the bloke who's statistics fall apart by lunchtime every time he issues any.

    As we know, someone else is always to blame when it comes to the Tories. They are the "it's not me, guv, it's his fault" party.
    "It started in America......nowt to do with us....."

    I thought the Tories were going to be different. But it turns out they are exactly the same.


  • Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:



    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes
    I would now be surprised if the Universal Credit ever did appear, rather than surprised if it didn't.

    I wonder if any PB Tories have anything to contribute?

    don't think I'm a pbtory (need at least 2 nominations and handshake for that?)

    but:

    forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?

    its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?
    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    MODERATED
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will the co op bank still be part of the co op in years time ?
  • Plato said:

    It's really amusing to see how much more tribal PB has become over the last week or so - today is a case in point where there's very little actual exchange of views just talking to each other who we already agree with in a mutual grooming session!

    rather be well groomed than untended
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    It's really amusing to see how much more tribal PB has become over the last week or so - today is a case in point where there's very little actual exchange of views just talking to each other who we already agree with in a mutual grooming session!

    @Plato

    Of course you realise that for some frequent posters, that their purpose is never to exchange a view but to browbeat and impose their opinions repeatedly on others.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
    The UK doesnt have a political civil service. (Though there are proposals out there that would move us in that direction.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:

    Will the co op bank still be part of the co op in years time ?

    Personally I think it will have to change hands, the Coop doesn't have the cash to recapitalise it. It will either get sold or be spun off and given some stupid new name like' thanxgordon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2013

    tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    "I lost faith in the ability of ciivl servants to manage this " - Ian Duncan Smith on Universal Credit @bbcbreakfast

    Ha ha.
    From the bloke who's statistics fall apart by lunchtime every time he issues any.

    As we know, someone else is always to blame when it comes to the Tories. They are the "it's not me, guv, it's his fault" party.
    "It started in America......nowt to do with us....."

    I thought the Tories were going to be different. But it turns out they are exactly the same.

    You think the economy will be in the same state in 2015 as 2010?

    On IDS the computer chap interviewed on R4 earlier said he suspected IDS was not aware of the problems as the culture in the Civil Service is to hope "it will all be alright on the night" - yet tim claims MODERATED. I do hope he's got a good link for that claim - wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble.....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:


    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
    The UK doesnt have a political civil service. (Though there are proposals out there that would move us in that direction.)
    Not officially.....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    It's really amusing to see how much more tribal PB has become over the last week or so - today is a case in point where there's very little actual exchange of views just talking to each other who we already agree with in a mutual grooming session!

    @Plato

    Of course you realise that for some frequent posters, that their purpose is never to exchange a view but to browbeat and impose their opinions repeatedly on others.
    Quite. Not many minds changed with vinegar :^ )

  • Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
    Possibly. Alternatively a common management pathology is not to trust people in your own organisation when they tell you what's going on because it's not what you want to hear, and instead to listen to people from outside the organisation who tell you what you want to hear because they're trying to sell you something.
  • Quentin Letts got it spot on.. Is that why the leftie tag team are in a froth today..they certainly got an early start.
  • Neil said:


    Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
    The UK doesnt have a political civil service. (Though there are proposals out there that would move us in that direction.)
    my point was, in the mind of some tory ministers (maybe IDS, Gove) it may already be political.

    (in reality I suppose, its a middle class organization, and the middle classes, on average are broadly liberal, not as right wing as yr average tory. like the BBC)

  • Correct. It's a good idea in theory, but pretty much from the outset it's been screaming "horribly half-baked planning, hideously doomed implementation" so loudly you could hear it from Tokyo. I'd imagine Labour will carry on trying to do something similar, but hopefully more carefully and in smaller steps.

    Yup, the warning signs were there, the warnings themselves were loud and clear. IDS chose to ignore them.

    Suspect there may be a general problem of tory ministers not trusting civil servants appointed under blair, thus not believing them when told there are problems?
    Possibly. Alternatively a common management pathology is not to trust people in your own organisation when they tell you what's going on because it's not what you want to hear, and instead to listen to people from outside the organisation who tell you what you want to hear because they're trying to sell you something.
    An ex-manager of mine had an unusual policy that worked dividends: (*) he would get managers and team leads under him to specify a project. He would then go down a couple of levels to the actual engineers, and call meetings to ask a few of them what they thought of the specifications, without the managers present.

    It worked quite well for a couple of reasons: firstly, it removed a level of ass-covering management from the specification, and made the engineers feel appreciated and valued.

    (*) Every project he worked on met targets; highly unusual in this industry.
  • Here's a question for the PB commentariat: Is the 'Kinnockisation' of Ed Miliband being driven by his enemies, the press or by the fact that Ed is crap? Or all three?

    Whatever the answer he seems to be getting (wholly deserved) atrocious press. POEMWAS!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Good morning, everyone.

    Just over a day and an hour to the start of the first practice session. Early discussion is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/italy-early-discussion.html

    Looking at the US Open overnight IMO Nadal looks unstoppable and the widely available 5/4 appears a steal. He destroyed Robredo for the loss of four games and his hard court form is outstanding.

    Much as I'd like Andy Murray to retain his title I just can't see him or Novak resisting Nadal in this form in the final.

    Nadal - 5/4 for the title - Get on.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The GB Trade Unions have a basic problem in that they are still stuck in 19th C thinking. They have yet to wake up to the fact the well are members of a global market that is becoming increasingly competitive.

    Many of their leaders have lost touch with their membership - usually being on a salary and benefits package that is often 10x of more that of their members and something that their members can only dream about.

    As SeanT commented in the previous thread, due to rapid globalisation, we are seeing that for many of the uneducated and unskilled have no jobs to go to.

    The Unions needs to be rethinking their strategic purpose and perhaps using their political funds for the re-education and up-skilling of their members so that these people (who have been let down by the education system) do have a future prospect of employment.
  • Hmm. I'll give that a look, Mr. W.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Patrick said:

    Here's a question for the PB commentariat: Is the 'Kinnockisation' of Ed Miliband being driven by his enemies, the press or by the fact that Ed is crap? Or all three?

    Whatever the answer he seems to be getting (wholly deserved) atrocious press. POEMWAS!

    The polls give the basis, the insiders grumble but only when the media takes hold of it do the rest come out of the woodwork and pile on. There are many excuses made by Labourites and Ed Loyalists - but there's a reason for all of this criticism and poor polling - and its Ed.

    There's only so much you can blame on *failing to get the message across*
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Ah, tim, you being even more of a neocon (blimey!) than David Aaronovitch, tell me - I promise it will remain secret bewteen us girls - what you think of his article of Ed as vulture?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    It is possible that the Co-Op Bank could be split into two (like Northern Rock) a good bank and a bad bank and the bad bank being sold off. If the Labour debts are part of the Bad Bank's portfolio - would the new owners foreclose on Labour?
  • Guido has a good article on UC. Brings some sense to the debate instead of the froth on PB
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Financier said:


    The Unions needs to be rethinking their strategic purpose and perhaps using their political funds for the re-education and up-skilling of their members so that these people (who have been let down by the education system) do have a future prospect of employment.

    Wow, Financier, unions should get involved in training their members? What a stunning insight. Maybe inspired by your even-more-than-usually-insightful post they might actually start doing that. I mean it's not as if it's been a fundamental part of the movement ever since it started or anything.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Patrick said:

    Here's a question for the PB commentariat: Is the 'Kinnockisation' of Ed Miliband being driven by his enemies, the press or by the fact that Ed is crap? Or all three?

    Whatever the answer he seems to be getting (wholly deserved) atrocious press. POEMWAS!

    I think "Kinnockisation" is the wrong analogy.

    Kinnock clearly saw the problems within the party and in policy context. He did an excellent job in putting the Labour party in a viable position to contend for power and see off the threat of the Alliance. However for all his efforts the voters weren't convinced he was Prime Ministerial material.

    The better comparison for Ed is IDS - Picked because of who he wasn't, unsure of his leadership in the party, lacking the confidence of big backers and fatally ignored or poorly rated by the public in general and too many of his own supporters.

    Ed Duncan-Smith step forward.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    From the header, it does seem remarkeable that the GMB can decide at a board meeting that it has 50 000 paying the political levy rather than 420 000, without having to justify the figure. Do they not have records to show how many have ticked the box to opt out? It is an extraordinary case of rotton boroughs about it.

    And long due for reform. Ed Miliband is right on this one. The timing and tactics of sorting out the union funding issue may be poor, but the principle is right.

    Incidentally it is striking how I (as an Orange booker,occasionally a PB tory) am often the only one on here to speak up for Ed M. The PB lefties seem to be unwilling to counter the Ed is Crap meme, and at best try to throw up chaff.

    He really looks rather friendless, and Ed Balls is curiously silent. I suspect him of Brownian plotting.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    Was Liam Byrne really a Senior man at the Treasury?.. amazing.. no wonder we finished up in deep poo.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    Poor Dave

    "Obama snubs Cameron at G20
    David Cameron will not hold a formal meeting with Barack Obama at the G20 summit in St Petersburg this week.
    5
    2The US President will instead hold bilateral meetings with other world leaders, including French president François Hollande.

    The decision not to meet Mr Cameron formally is being seen as a snub from Mr Obama over the Prime Minister's handling of the recent parliamentary vote on Syria."

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/36980/

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome
    Ken Clarke, talking about last Thursday's vote on Syria intervention: "We did not have time to get a good majority.”

    Anthony Davis ‏@theanthonydavis
    Ken Clarke confirms the Americans wanted Britain to vote quickly on #Syria. Meanwhile Washington says Cameron mishandled the situation.

    I wonder how Obama will react when he meets this man face to face ?

    WARNING - over 18s only.

    http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/storm-over-bid-to-kill-unflattering-hollande-photo-29554386.html
  • @tim, ignoring your transparent switch to "average" - you don't think GMB has members on £12k?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9414160/Three-dozen-union-chiefs-take-home-more-than-100000.html
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    tim said:

    @Financier

    "Many of their leaders have lost touch with their membership - usually being on a salary and benefits package that is often 10x of more that of their members "

    I'll bet you £1000 that you can't find one GMB official who earns "10x or more" that of their members average pay.

    Ah tim, tim, tim, you need the re-education package, as it seems that your are unable to read or even understand the difference between "many" and "one specific" and "salary and benefits package" and "earns".

    If ever (at it is most unlikely) that I engaged in a bet with you, you would have to put the money up front and lodge it in an escrow account.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited September 2013
    Financier said:

    It is possible that the Co-Op Bank could be split into two (like Northern Rock) a good bank and a bad bank and the bad bank being sold off. If the Labour debts are part of the Bad Bank's portfolio - would the new owners foreclose on Labour?

    Wouldn't that depend on the quality of the securities. I seem to remember a few years back nobody in Labour wanted to sign up to banking covenants because it was too much personal risk. But from a banking perspective which assets can you seize and would they be worth £10+million. It might be better to do a work out by squeezing the supporters for cash to cover the gap, but that means Ed is Len's bitch, they might as well dirch the tarnished name and rebrand themselves Unite.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Call me cynical, but this feels like a gambit. I doubt the GMB will cut funding just before the GE and thereby carry the can.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    Financier said:

    tim said:

    @Financier

    "Many of their leaders have lost touch with their membership - usually being on a salary and benefits package that is often 10x of more that of their members "

    I'll bet you £1000 that you can't find one GMB official who earns "10x or more" that of their members average pay.

    Ah tim, tim, tim, you need the re-education package, as it seems that your are unable to read or even understand the difference between "many" and "one specific" and "salary and benefits package" and "earns".

    If ever (at it is most unlikely) that I engaged in a bet with you, you would have to put the money up front and lodge it in an escrow account.

    "Many of their leaders have lost touch with their membership - usually being on a salary and benefits package that is often 10x of more that of their members"

    Another day another pile of anecdotal ignorance from the man who thinks YouGovs polling is distorted by landline coverage.
    Have you ever been in a Union ? have you ever met a trade union rep ?

    Student Union doesn't count.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    For obvious reasons I won't go into detail, but as the (AFAIK) only contributor here actually affected by Labour funding issues, I am less worried about help with funding than at any election since 1997. There will be lots of this sort of story between now and the special conference, but it's a mistake to bet on Labour not being able to fund the GE properly.

    That's not what TSE is saying, though - he's saying we might not put much effort into the Euros. No opinion on that.

    In cross-party harmony, I'd like to endorse fitalass's plug for

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/

    Apart from being a treasure trove of information, it's the only blog I've ever seen that says he doesn't want any money! Just links. We should all plug it.
  • JackW said:

    The better comparison for Ed is IDS - Picked because of who he wasn't, unsure of his leadership in the party, lacking the confidence of big backers and fatally ignored or poorly rated by the public in general and too many of his own supporters.

    Ed Duncan-Smith step forward.

    I fear that comparison may be close to the mark. However, Ed is doing considerably better in the opinion polls than IDS and so he may still survive to receive the judgement of the electorate in 2015.
  • AB.. Dont most Estate owners shoot union reps when they step on their land..
  • Incidentally it is striking how I (as an Orange booker,occasionally a PB tory) am often the only one on here to speak up for Ed M. The PB lefties seem to be unwilling to counter the Ed is Crap meme, and at best try to throw up chaff.

    He really looks rather friendless, and Ed Balls is curiously silent. I suspect him of Brownian plotting.

    Balls has, I think, been silenced by Miliband as part of a deal to appease Darling and the Blairites, and thus prevent an internal party row.

    I'm not a great fan of Ed Miliband but fear his brother would have been even worse.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    AB.. Dont most Estate owners shoot union reps when they step on their land..

    The best Union I have ever negotiated with was the german metalworkers union IG Metall. Their reps are well organised, factual and have a good feel for what might fly - ie they won't do anything which will endanger their place of work. The worst is the french CGT, the old style communists, who would happily close all their members place of work just to say bosses are swine and capitalism doesn't work.
  • Guido has a good article on UC. Brings some sense to the debate instead of the froth on PB

    Isn't Guido in essence rehashing this Daily Telegraph piece from mid-August?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10255749/Liam-Byrne-Labour-will-help-Iain-Duncan-Smith-save-Universal-Credit.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Even Kettle can't find much positive to say about Ed - its just a rehash of Mary Riddels article lamenting the nasty press.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The better comparison for Ed is IDS - Picked because of who he wasn't, unsure of his leadership in the party, lacking the confidence of big backers and fatally ignored or poorly rated by the public in general and too many of his own supporters.

    Ed Duncan-Smith step forward.

    I fear that comparison may be close to the mark. However, Ed is doing considerably better in the opinion polls than IDS and so he may still survive to receive the judgement of the electorate in 2015.
    Indeed so.

    Additionally Labour are very poor regicides and unless Ed's position becomes utterly untenable he will remain in place - Excellent news for the Coalition.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Jeez

    Journalist Ben @journalistben
    BREAKING: #Kent Police now saying #Sheppey crash could involve 100 vehicles.
  • Talk about money for old rope. - Kettle’s so called ‘predictions’ have been deliberated on by every political editor and here on PB for the past month.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tim said:

    "There is little doubt that a clear majority of MPs supported – and still support – the option of military action against Syria. One examination of the voting figures suggests that 490 MPs voted for motions supporting a process which could lead to an attack. Only 52 MPs voted against the use of force in any circumstances by opposing both the Labour amendment and the government motion. Yet for the past week, the ministerial mantra has been that parliament has spoken, and that Britain will not take part in any use of force.

    On that reading, the pivotal moment last week was when David Cameron stood up in the Commons after the votes and announced that parliament had spoken against military action, and "I get that". But parliament hadn't spoken. And Cameron didn't get it. He must have known that there was a majority for action if the words could have been agreed. Statecraft required the prime minister to accept the votes, and to promise to reflect, to consult and to think afresh.

    Conversations with parliamentarians and officials since then lead me to the conclusion that Cameron made this petulant error because he had lost it with Miliband in the hours leading up to the vote."

    Thats a very telling analysis.
    Camerons petulant and uncontrolled behaviour overrode his previous concern about Syria, and has undermined Britain internationally.

    A coward who likes a Sam Cam Syrian refugee photoshoot but whose personal arrogance negates any position he may want to take.
    Utter horse crap.

    The House of Commons decided.

    Endex.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    WTF is this nonsense from the CPS?

    Doctors who agreed to arrange illegal abortions based on the sex of an unborn baby have been told they will not face criminal charges, despite prosecutors admitting that there is enough evidence to take them to court, it emerged on Wednesday night.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10287574/Gender-abortions-criminal-charges-not-in-public-interest-says-CPS.html
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2013

    TGOHF said:

    Will the co op bank still be part of the co op in years time ?

    Personally I think it will have to change hands, the Coop doesn't have the cash to recapitalise it. It will either get sold or be spun off and given some stupid new name like' thanxgordon.
    The Coop has already structured itself with its Bank, funeral and legal services being run as stand alone businesses (easier to spin off). Its retail is still a Division.

    A Coop bank operating as a separate Company would not be able to give the Labour party special rates. What we do not know is whether this will take 1, 2 or more years. The experience elsewhere of the fast track splitting off of the TSB may help speed up decisions at the Coop group.
This discussion has been closed.