Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?
Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.
Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?
If you delve deeper into the poll results - bearing in mind all the provisos above - support for leaving amongst Tory voters has increased according to BMG and is running at about 70 to 30. It's amongst Lib Dem and Labour voters on this poll where there has been a shift to remain - at least on the raw figures - as per the up down arrows BMG use.
Not quite sure why the Tories would drop a policy that is becoming increasingly popular with their own supporters - assuming we believe the BMG numbers? They won a majority in 2015 with 63 per cent of voters not voting for them.
Most voters don't like much of what the Tories are doing in government - but you don't need a majority of voters to win elections.
In fact more June 2017 Tories now support Leave than June 2017 Labour voters back Remain, a reverse of the June 2016 when more Tory voters voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave. LD and SNP voters strongly back Remain.
If Brexit was a thing like hanging that had no effect on anything else that would be a really strong argument. The trouble is that Brexit affects a lot of other things. The Tories could easily lose votes because say the NHS isn't performing as people expect it. That the reason is the lack of staff because of lower levels of immigration won't stop Brexit supporters switching votes away from the Tories.
If the NHS is your main issue you almost certainly vote Labour anyway. In any case May's work permits will still allow in needed NHS workers
Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
It does not need new converts, Brexit won the referendum, it is Remain who needs converts.
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.
At some point the fearless? reckless? (let's compromise on feckless) Brexiteers are going to want the country to unite around the new policy position to move forward. Right now, it looks far more likely to continue endlessly split, with a plurality opposed to this fundamental change in direction. So, yes, it needs new converts.
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'
There’s also organisations like the British Council and various British Business Group or British Business Council chapters around the world, who provide local networking for smaller businesses. The embassies mainly deal with very large or government deals.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll. In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.
But the time for the argument was before the referendum. There is no argument to have now except for the details of how Brexit will work. The vast majority just want the government to get on with it so we can discuss other pressing issues.
Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
It does not need new converts, Brexit won the referendum, it is Remain who needs converts.
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.
At some point the fearless? reckless? (let's compromise on feckless) Brexiteers are going to want the country to unite around the new policy position to move forward. Right now, it looks far more likely to continue endlessly split, with a plurality opposed to this fundamental change in direction. So, yes, it needs new converts.
But they're not even trying.
17 million voted Leave, more than have ever voted for anything in the UK, all of them Brexiteers in some form.
May's policy of a FTA that ends free movement has support from most voters in the country except diehard Remainers like you and diehard Brexiteers
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'
There’s also organisations like the British Council and various British Business Group or British Business Council chapters around the world, who provide local networking for smaller businesses. The embassies mainly deal with very large or government deals.
TBF I’ve paraphrased. I’ll mention those when I see him, though. See what he says.
Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
Of course not, you barely post about anything else. The point is had you and other diehard Remainers put in as much effort campaigning for Remain as you do whinging about the result you might never have had a Brexit to forget in the first place!
Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Your point is a very good one, as are Peter Kellner's. But Peter's are the telling ones in the context of a second referendum to reverse Brexit. The only point of a second referendum in my opinion is to ratify a collective change of mind. That requires a significant amount of Bremorse - maybe 20% of those that voted Leave to decide they made a mistake. There is a small net movement to Remain, but not nearly enough to change course.
Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.
Why? The one party backing cutting our aid budget received fewer than 2% of the votes in June.
Mr. Eagles, pish. When the big two parties, and smaller one such as SNP and Lib Dems, all agree on something, it's very hard for that to be changed unless the something in question is the most important thing to voters.
Likewise, I'd like to reduce foreign aid spending and put it into Defence and Health, but I won't vote UKIP as it'd risk the friend of Hamas getting into Number Ten.
Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.
Cable was pressing the case for a second referendum in the Metro this morning as a commitment rather than not being ruled out like some in Labour have done
Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
I am sure they are. However we are getting to the important point now: what do we actually want and can we have it? Those without answers are apparently meeting in secret to thrash it out. The rest of us should have a say.
What parliament really wants – and quite right too – is a say about the much more fundamental question that will be discussed in phase 3 of the negotiations – what will the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU look like? Will we seek to maintain, as far as possible, the current degree of economic integration with the EU, even after we leave its political structures? That is, do we seek to remain, formally or through some alternative arrangements, in the EU single market and/or customs union? Or do we seek to disengage and negotiate a “deep and comprehensive trade arrangement” with the EU – that is, a comprehensive free trade agreement, with nothing like the degree of regulatory convergence implied by the single market. The latter would mean a very significant increase in barriers to trade – formal and informal – with our largest trading partner, but on the other hand offers the opportunity to shape our own regulatory framework and to conclude trade deals with the rest of world.
That is a genuinely meaningful choice. It is not one that was on the referendum ballot, and there are former remainers and leavers on both sides of the divide. It is not one that has ever been properly debated or decided, either in parliament or the country. Much of the debate has been of the “cake and eat it” kind. Indeed, Theresa May has so far refused to even have a proper discussion in cabinet, since she knows there is deep disagreement.
On this, the most fundamental issue, the EU27 aren’t seeking to impose their views. As EU representatives have said repeatedly, we have a binary choice to make, but it is our choice.
I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
Mr. Eagles, pish. When the big two parties, and smaller one such as SNP and Lib Dems, all agree on something, it's very hard for that to be changed unless the something in question is the most important thing to voters.
Likewise, I'd like to reduce foreign aid spending and put it into Defence and Health, but I won't vote UKIP as it'd risk the friend of Hamas getting into Number Ten.
Remember that logic when people cite that 80% of voters backed parties that want to leave the single market and customs unions in June.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.
The perception is more important than the reality I suspect. All it needs I reckon is avoid a major recession, reduce immigration and convincingly claim to have given substantially more money to the NHS.
Arguably they are on course/Can still deliver on all 3.
I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
Except as even BMG says their poll swing comes entirely from referendum non voters moving to Remain (and that has likely narrowed post Phase 1 deal), over 90% of Leave voters still back Leave.
Plus if we do Remain even by 10% in an EU referendum 2 that would not end the matter, UKIP would just return on am SNP style agenda to keep the issue alive for an EU referendum 3 (or 4 if you count 1975)
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well. Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
@rcs1000 made the point in 2015 that pollsters missed the extent of the Lib Dem collapse because of this effect. People had conveniently 'forgotten' their previous support for the Lib Dems, so poll weightings disguised the true swing away from them.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
@rcs1000 made the point in 2015 that pollsters missed the extent of the Lib Dem collapse because of this effect. People had conveniently 'forgotten' their previous support for the Lib Dems, so poll weightings disguised the true swing away from them.
Had it not been for the Lord Ashcroft constituency polling then the Lib Dem hammering wouldn't have been a shock.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well. Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!
Ian Botham says he’s personally met more people who said they were at the last two days of the 1981 Headingly Test, than the ground could hold at the time.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well. Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!
Sir Ian Botham says based amount of people who tell him they were there at Headingley 1981 some half a million people attended the match.
We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.
Interesting. Lennox Lewis in 1999 drew with Holyfield in March and then won in November. Calzaghe won his big fight against Kessler in November 2007 and benefited from the publicity surrounding the Mayweather v Hatton fight which Hatton lost.
So I wonder if Joshua suffered from his big win coming in the summer.
There's an element of punter bias here, I think. The male-dominated Dusk Till Dawn poker club in Nottingham routinely shows boxing on the screens, as do other clubs I've played in - I once complained that the volume was turned up really loud for the final and was told by several people that 80% of the attendees were keen - as they seemed to be.
If, as I suspect, Betfair also have a predominantly male audience, then punters may overestimate the chances of boxers in a wider contest like SPOTY, where name recognition is key. I've little interest in sport, but I know Mo Farah's name well and if I'd voted it might have been for him.
In the same way, ironically, I've been making modest profits out of betting on cricket, simply by assuming there's a Betfair bias to backing England in anything, so laying England tends to be good value. If one can spot a punter bias and is cold-blooded enough not to bet with one's heart, it can be profitable.
Helps that England are so crap
Technically England and Wales of course, not that it would have made much difference this time
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
Partly because many of its supporters will have passed on.
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
Partly because many of its supporters will have passed on.
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
Because it would have been undemocratic to tell the majority of people that they could not have what they wanted.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well. Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!
Ian Botham says he’s personally met more people who said they were at the last two days of the 1981 Headingly Test, than the ground could hold at the time.
Perhaps that’s the legend I am thinking of instead...
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It has been a fascinating 24 hours, though. First, we find out that Tory Brexiteers in the Cabinet are seeking to use our departure from the EU as a way to reduce employee rights. And this morning we learn that another prominent Tory Brexiteer believes that far from offering British business a golden tomorrow, our EU departure is something that they are going to have to "suck up"!! It's good to see that some honesty is emerging, but those sunlit uplands are looking further away than ever.
I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
I live in the West Midlands and see no sign of Brexit regret at all. I do not think I know anyone who has changed their mind one way or another.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
Brexit isn't going to be overturned. It is, however, shaping up to be unpopular in the long term. Leavers don't seem worried by that yet. If I were a Leave supporter, that possibility would be keeping me awake at night.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
I am sure they are. However we are getting to the important point now: what do we actually want and can we have it? Those without answers are apparently meeting in secret to thrash it out. The rest of us should have a say.
What parliament really wants – and quite right too – is a say about the much more fundamental question that will be discussed in phase 3 of the negotiations – what will the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU look like? Will we seek to maintain, as far as possible, the current degree of economic integration with the EU, even after we leave its political structures? That is, do we seek to remain, formally or through some alternative arrangements, in the EU single market and/or customs union? Or do we seek to disengage and negotiate a “deep and comprehensive trade arrangement” with the EU – that is, a comprehensive free trade agreement, with nothing like the degree of regulatory convergence implied by the single market. The latter would mean a very significant increase in barriers to trade – formal and informal – with our largest trading partner, but on the other hand offers the opportunity to shape our own regulatory framework and to conclude trade deals with the rest of world.
That is a genuinely meaningful choice. It is not one that was on the referendum ballot, and there are former remainers and leavers on both sides of the divide. It is not one that has ever been properly debated or decided, either in parliament or the country. Much of the debate has been of the “cake and eat it” kind. Indeed, Theresa May has so far refused to even have a proper discussion in cabinet, since she knows there is deep disagreement.
On this, the most fundamental issue, the EU27 aren’t seeking to impose their views. As EU representatives have said repeatedly, we have a binary choice to make, but it is our choice.
Yep - that is absolutely correct. The problem is that it is a politically impossible choice to make because it goes against everything that Tory Leave campaigners told voters during the referendum campaign - and everything the government has said since the vote.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
Is that last word a question or an answer?
More seriously, while I can see the logic I'm dubious about the effect of minimum thresholds. They can easily start a 'we wuz robbed' narrative that ends by causing much greater trouble down the line.
Take Scotland 1979. Roughly the same split as Brexit (51-49) but on a 63% turnout. Therefore the failure to meet the required 40% threshold became a constant running sore in constitutional affairs from 1979 to 1997 and did much damage to both the main parties north of the border.
If my maths is correct, 38% voted to leave. That's a big number. If a 40% threshold had been applied, nothing would be happening - except that Nigel Farage would be likely to be our next PM, a la Sturgeon's brutal hammering of the Unionists in 2015, a fate almost as bad as Jeremy Corbyn being PM.
Although in theory it might have acted as a wake up call to the EU to do something sane like close down the Parliament, prosecute Juncker and Barnier and revert power to the Heads of Government where it belongs, as has been proven brutally many times the EU does not pay heed to votes merely because they reveal the union has an existential level lack of popular legitimacy. More likely Juncker would have claimed endorsement of his and the EU's personal popularity (as Verhofstadt did) and carried on illegally misappropriating the powers of the Heads of Government to the Commission.
So I think even as a Remainer I would argue a threshold might have been even more disastrous than a leave vote. Remember, the issues are only becoming clear to leavers, if indeed they are, as they arise in negotiations.
Your point is a very good one, as are Peter Kellner's. But Peter's are the telling ones in the context of a second referendum to reverse Brexit. The only point of a second referendum in my opinion is to ratify a collective change of mind. That requires a significant amount of Bremorse - maybe 20% of those that voted Leave to decide they made a mistake. There is a small net movement to Remain, but not nearly enough to change course.
Yes - holding another referendum with a close result would be even more damaging to national cohesion and the body politic than the first one. We shouldn't rule out another electoral process, which could be either a general election or a referendum, on the exit deal when it is clear what that will be but there is not enough information or evidence that people have changed their minds to justify another one at the moment.
Matt d'Ancona has picked up on Boris's plagiarism, which was noted on here yesterday:
Boris Johnson, increasingly seen by younger Tories as a Nokia to the Moggster’s iPhone X, plays catch-up, deploying an identical form of words in a Sunday Times article. What, the foreign secretary asked, would be the point of mirroring EU laws: “we would have gone from a member state to a vassal state”. To which one is sorely tempted to respond: what were you expecting, mate? The sound you hear is the oak beams of Brexit groaning and cracking under the weight of its internal contradictions. The true believers want simultaneously to escape the tyranny of Brussels but – somehow – to retain all the commercial benefits of the single market.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....
Two points:
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats. 2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
Brexit isn't going to be overturned. It is, however, shaping up to be unpopular in the long term. Leavers don't seem worried by that yet. If I were a Leave supporter, that possibility would be keeping me awake at night.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
If you are convinced Leave supporter, then you are going to believe that Brexit will work out, so no need for sleepless nights. If it doesn't work out it will be the EU's fault.
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much larger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.
I cannot understand why REMAIN supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a swivel-eyed xenophobe.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.
We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.
So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.
The perception is more important than the reality I suspect. All it needs I reckon is avoid a major recession, reduce immigration and convincingly claim to have given substantially more money to the NHS.
Arguably they are on course/Can still deliver on all 3.
Indeed.
One thing that the continuity Remainers are contributing to the country is the continual playing down of expectations.
IDS is right. Business obviously wants the status quo, and business is very important, but we do not run the whole country for the benefit of business or even for the economy. There are bigger issues at stake. They can adapt to Brexit.
It must take some gall to sit in sunny Australia and imagine you have the right to lecture people who actually live here what they should & shouldn't do. You're not Rupert Murdoch are you?
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
Just one correction, the 8 year period starts when we leave, not at he end of the transition period. So it will run for EU citizens to 2027 not 2029.
Moreover you are committing the normal error of claiming that because we have to pay £39 billion to leave we should instead pay £15 billion a year for ever. Not exactly a winning or even logical argument.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.
And is why you were wrong then and are wrong now. You really never learn do you.
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
We will be leaving in name only. There will be no change to any aspect of EU membership apart from the UK's participation in the political structure until at least 2021. FoM, the single market and customs union and decisions of the ECJ will continue to apply.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....
Two points:
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats. 2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.
Your point (1) is rubbish. Farage and Griffin, for example, have had a deluge of death threats. And look no further than Pim Fortyn in the Netherlands for an example of a xenophobe where the threat came true.
IDS is right. Business obviously wants the status quo, and business is very important, but we do not run the whole country for the benefit of business or even for the economy. There are bigger issues at stake. They can adapt to Brexit.
It must take some gall to sit in sunny Australia and imagine you have the right to lecture people who actually live here what they should & shouldn't do. You're not Rupert Murdoch are you?
I thought he lived in America and it was his eldest son lived in Australia? The one that isn't involved in the family - firm.
More importantly, "this poll shares the same methodology as BMG’s pre-Referendum polling, which consistently reported Leave ahead in the run-up to the EU referendum in 2016, and also called the correct outcome."
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'
A client I spoke to a couple of weeks ago volunteered how good and proactive they were. He runs a $100m public company, so definitely not huge (although not small either).
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....
Two points:
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats. 2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.
I have no idea how you can be so clueless? Yes Nigel Farage has never had police protection and death threats! I must have imagined that time his car was attacked on camera.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
Except ...
1. The EU has made it abundantly clear the £39 billion is money we already owe due to having been members. It is a settling of old bills, not a new fee. Every penny of which we'd owe plus more debts accruing all the time if we'd remained.
2. So we have a deal until at least 2021 and yes they are going to sign an FTA still.
3. ECJ jurisdiction would have continued forever had we remained. When we joined there was a seven year transition, having a two year (or 8 on a couple of issues) transition on leaving isn't the end of the world.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
Having seen the details of the BMG poll, I find almost all of the sub-data plausible. The one which slightly surprised me was the "Male" split 54% back back Remain now and up, whereas "Female" support is 47% and down.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.
It has been a fascinating 24 hours, though. First, we find out that Tory Brexiteers in the Cabinet are seeking to use our departure from the EU as a way to reduce employee rights. And this morning we learn that another prominent Tory Brexiteer believes that far from offering British business a golden tomorrow, our EU departure is something that they are going to have to "suck up"!! It's good to see that some honesty is emerging, but those sunlit uplands are looking further away than ever.
I assume it is inadvertent, but your post is misleading. It wasn't IDS who used the phrase "suck up" - he just said that British business would have to come to terms with the fact that we are leaving. "Suck it up" was the provocative addition by the person who retweeted it.
We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.
Yes, I feel the same. Think of all that good work by Thatcher and Major that allowed us to have our cake and eat it. Then Boris came along and ruined it. Such a waste.
Comments
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.
But they're not even trying.
Doubt either side will though - too caught up in the minutiae of battle.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/exclusive-labour-embroiled-latest-sexual-harassment-scandal/
We could have a referendum to come back in in 2057 I suppose.
May's policy of a FTA that ends free movement has support from most voters in the country except diehard Remainers like you and diehard Brexiteers
It's a view I suppose.
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.
Likewise, I'd like to reduce foreign aid spending and put it into Defence and Health, but I won't vote UKIP as it'd risk the friend of Hamas getting into Number Ten.
Meanwhile I will repost this piece from Jonathan Portes
What parliament really wants – and quite right too – is a say about the much more fundamental question that will be discussed in phase 3 of the negotiations – what will the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU look like? Will we seek to maintain, as far as possible, the current degree of economic integration with the EU, even after we leave its political structures? That is, do we seek to remain, formally or through some alternative arrangements, in the EU single market and/or customs union? Or do we seek to disengage and negotiate a “deep and comprehensive trade arrangement” with the EU – that is, a comprehensive free trade agreement, with nothing like the degree of regulatory convergence implied by the single market. The latter would mean a very significant increase in barriers to trade – formal and informal – with our largest trading partner, but on the other hand offers the opportunity to shape our own regulatory framework and to conclude trade deals with the rest of world.
That is a genuinely meaningful choice. It is not one that was on the referendum ballot, and there are former remainers and leavers on both sides of the divide. It is not one that has ever been properly debated or decided, either in parliament or the country. Much of the debate has been of the “cake and eat it” kind. Indeed, Theresa May has so far refused to even have a proper discussion in cabinet, since she knows there is deep disagreement.
On this, the most fundamental issue, the EU27 aren’t seeking to impose their views. As EU representatives have said repeatedly, we have a binary choice to make, but it is our choice.
WTAF ?
All it needs I reckon is avoid a major recession, reduce immigration and convincingly claim to have given substantially more money to the NHS.
Arguably they are on course/Can still deliver on all 3.
Plus if we do Remain even by 10% in an EU referendum 2 that would not end the matter, UKIP would just return on am SNP style agenda to keep the issue alive for an EU referendum 3 (or 4 if you count 1975)
Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
It has been a fascinating 24 hours, though. First, we find out that Tory Brexiteers in the Cabinet are seeking to use our departure from the EU as a way to reduce employee rights. And this morning we learn that another prominent Tory Brexiteer believes that far from offering British business a golden tomorrow, our EU departure is something that they are going to have to "suck up"!! It's good to see that some honesty is emerging, but those sunlit uplands are looking further away than ever.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
Take Scotland 1979. Roughly the same split as Brexit (51-49) but on a 63% turnout. Therefore the failure to meet the required 40% threshold became a constant running sore in constitutional affairs from 1979 to 1997 and did much damage to both the main parties north of the border.
If my maths is correct, 38% voted to leave. That's a big number. If a 40% threshold had been applied, nothing would be happening - except that Nigel Farage would be likely to be our next PM, a la Sturgeon's brutal hammering of the Unionists in 2015, a fate almost as bad as Jeremy Corbyn being PM.
Although in theory it might have acted as a wake up call to the EU to do something sane like close down the Parliament, prosecute Juncker and Barnier and revert power to the Heads of Government where it belongs, as has been proven brutally many times the EU does not pay heed to votes merely because they reveal the union has an existential level lack of popular legitimacy. More likely Juncker would have claimed endorsement of his and the EU's personal popularity (as Verhofstadt did) and carried on illegally misappropriating the powers of the Heads of Government to the Commission.
So I think even as a Remainer I would argue a threshold might have been even more disastrous than a leave vote. Remember, the issues are only becoming clear to leavers, if indeed they are, as they arise in negotiations.
Boris Johnson, increasingly seen by younger Tories as a Nokia to the Moggster’s iPhone X, plays catch-up, deploying an identical form of words in a Sunday Times article. What, the foreign secretary asked, would be the point of mirroring EU laws: “we would have gone from a member state to a vassal state”. To which one is sorely tempted to respond: what were you expecting, mate? The sound you hear is the oak beams of Brexit groaning and cracking under the weight of its internal contradictions. The true believers want simultaneously to escape the tyranny of Brussels but – somehow – to retain all the commercial benefits of the single market.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/17/brexit-will-of-the-people-vassal-state-populism
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats.
2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
One thing that the continuity Remainers are contributing to the country is the continual playing down of expectations.
In the spirit of Christmas; thanks chaps!
Moreover you are committing the normal error of claiming that because we have to pay £39 billion to leave we should instead pay £15 billion a year for ever. Not exactly a winning or even logical argument.
BMG's Mike Turner gives his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/pollstermike/status/942707868020674560
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
1. The EU has made it abundantly clear the £39 billion is money we already owe due to having been members. It is a settling of old bills, not a new fee. Every penny of which we'd owe plus more debts accruing all the time if we'd remained.
2. So we have a deal until at least 2021 and yes they are going to sign an FTA still.
3. ECJ jurisdiction would have continued forever had we remained. When we joined there was a seven year transition, having a two year (or 8 on a couple of issues) transition on leaving isn't the end of the world.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.
1) Farage and his Jewish Lobby comments
2) Leave.EU repeating a famous anti-Semitic trope about George Soros
3) Godfrey Bloom with this https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809
I think it is time to proscribe UKIP as a racist organisation like Combat 18