Actually it says the Cabinet is seeking a more ambitious deal than the Canada deal, not that it would reject a Canada deal if that was the best it could get
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The problem will also be that without the UK involved in negotiating FTAs for the EU, the Eu's internal dynamic will have been upset, with those countries more inclined to protectionism having the upper hand.
In some ways, I think the UK almost needs to default to hard Brexit, WTO conditions to allow a proper FTA to be negotiated.
I think you are right. It also makes better sense politically. There is no deal that somebody won't have an objection to. Go for no deal unless they make us an offer and at least you can deflect the blame.
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Yougov in September found the French wanted the UK to leave the EU by an even bigger margin than the British.
Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.
The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!
The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
If you look at the Figure ES1 on page 7 it shows the results for farm income for various scenarios with various amounts of direct subsidy.
For both FTA and WTO with the existing levels of subsidy every single sector including sheep and goats is better off (1st and 4th bars on each graph.) The only way it is worse off is with the removal of tariffs (Trade Liberalisation).
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!
The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.
But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
I am not suggesting we should have no deal. I am saying that you cannot pick and choose what still exists from the agreement if we have no deal. No deal is no deal. The agreement falls. It is actually written as such in the 5th Article.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
We should conduct an experiment.
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Utter rubbish. The overwhelming majority of Tory voters want to end free movement, it is actually leaving it in place that would threaten the Tory Party and see mass defections to UKIP.
We should still get a FTA and end free movement but in a straight choice between the two the Tories have no alternative but to prioritise the latter.
You are also incorrect too, historically the Liberals have supported free trade for longer than the Tories have, at times the Tories have backed tariffs
People need to understand that even if we manage to end free movement and get a significant drop in the number of "foreigners" these jobs still won't be accessible.
Because the affordable child care doesn't exist. The viable public transport outside major cities doesn't exist. The ability to pay bills on net wages doesn't exist. Migrants didn't come and take our jobs, they were pulled in to fill the gaps in our workforce as a low wage high cost economic model increasingly made work not pay.
It is not just the downward pressure on wages by free movement voters were concerned about but the pressure on services and housing too.
Immigrants taking jobs was less of an issue given the low rate of UK unemployment
The pressure on services is not primarily from migrants.
In the NHS the vast majority of expenditure is on the over 65's, and increasingly the over 75's. These are heavily weighted to British born, or immigrants in the 60's and 70's. More recent immigrants have had effect on certain areas, such as maternity, but without these children we would have a much worse demographic timebomb.
As I have pointed out here on multiple occasions, on current migration figures, the working age population remains static over the next decade. The population increase of 2.5 million by 2030 is the over 65's.
No national politician is brave enough to say that we need immigration. And I suspect we will see young people emigrating in greater numbers in future - when you aren’t tied down by families/social connections in the same way - it’s much easier to move to Aus/Canada etc.
Have you seen an increase in junior doctors going abroad, anecdotally?
Australia has very tough immigration rules itself, even Brits cannot move there without skills the Aussies need
None of the Brits I know have had much trouble - indeed I think there's a scheme where you can move and do unskilled work on farms.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.
Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.
1. Most Irish road exports to Europe go via the UK. Fewer barriers is better. 2. The N Irish border issue isn't entirely settled: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed etc. Driving too hard could drive the talks off the road and unravel phase 1.
In phase 1, Ireland had an incentive to push hard for a soft Brexit and it was supported by the Commission, who saw that solution as consistent with the integrity of the SM etc. Having banked that, it now has something to lose.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
We should conduct an experiment.
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.
Why should the EU change its rules?
Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?
The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.
Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero
So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?
Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.
That will make Lamb expensive in EU and cheaper in UK
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.
Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.
So what? Most Leavers voted Leave to end free movement in large part if they cannot get a FTA and do that WTO terms it is then
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.
1. Most Irish road exports to Europe go via the UK. Fewer barriers is better. 2. The N Irish border issue isn't entirely settled: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed etc. Driving too hard could drive the talks off the road and unravel phase 1.
In phase 1, Ireland had an incentive to push hard for a soft Brexit and it was supported by the Commission, who saw that solution as consistent with the integrity of the SM etc. Having banked that, it now has something to lose.
So Ireland has banked a soft Brexit, which it risks losing if it doesn't now agree to a harder Brexit? Your position is an incoherent as the cabinet's.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.
Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.
So what? Most Leavers voted Leave to end free movement in large part if they cannot get a FTA and do that WTO terms it is then
Once again you're just going to have to be patient.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
LOL. Fat chance of that happening. Besides you are the one who keeps saying that the EU will not allow any picking and choosing. We are talking about reality here not your fantasies.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Exactly, work permits rather than an open border
The level of reasoning from the Grima Williamtongues on here is poor.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
We should conduct an experiment.
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Well since you are saying that the only alternative is no Brexit I would suggest you are screwed.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
LOL. Fat chance of that happening. Besides you are the one who keeps saying that the EU will not allow any picking and choosing. We are talking about reality here not your fantasies.
Fat chance of that happening was rather my point, but it does highlight the political dangers ahead for the government as their 'cake and eat it' strategy starts to unravel.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
If you look at the Figure ES1 on page 7 it shows the results for farm income for various scenarios with various amounts of direct subsidy.
For both FTA and WTO with the existing levels of subsidy every single sector including sheep and goats is better off (1st and 4th bars on each graph.) The only way it is worse off is with the removal of tariffs (Trade Liberalisation).
It's worth pointing out that this is only looking at income for farmers - not considering the availability of labour which will be a big factor I think.
It also doesn't consider any exchange rate effects - which so far have been presumably been positive for British farmers since their competitors have become more expensive in the UK, and their exports have become cheaper abroad.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Well since you are saying that the only alternative is no Brexit I would suggest you are screwed.
There is never a final word, and the referendum last June certainly wasn't it.
It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.
Why should the EU change its rules?
Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?
The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.
Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero
So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?
Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.
Clearly you are another one who likes to just imagine things rather than actually listening to the people are in the business.
But there's only been one general election since the Brexit referendum. How can Curtice draw such wide conclusions about the future of British politics on the basis of just one election?The next general election will be fought post Brexit, and I suspect that it will be very different from the 2017. Let us again remember that a lot of older Tory voters simply did not vote at all in 2017, because they believed that Corbyn was sunk anyway and they were pissed off with May over the dementia tax and plans for pensions. Those older voters will almost certainly vote next time....................
What's more concerning is the cultural change and sense of entitlement. For example in the case that @Sandpit gave earlier: 30 years ago virtually no one would have thought that acceptable behaviour - now people nod and shrug
I think it’s gone the other way entirely. The outrage level over benefits cheats is surely as high as it’s ever been.
As SO pointed out - a while back people didn’t mind you waiting for a job in your field - that’s all changed now. The stigma around being on benefits is huge.
I agree outrage has gone higher than ever before - there's a feedback loop.
My point was different: that virtually no higher rate taxpayer would have even dreamt of living with someone claiming single mother benefits, renting out their own house, and pocketing the difference.
The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.
Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.
I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.
The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Yougov in September found the French wanted the UK to leave the EU by an even bigger margin than the British.
Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.
The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.
Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.
So what? Most Leavers voted Leave to end free movement in large part if they cannot get a FTA and do that WTO terms it is then
Once again you're just going to have to be patient.
Free movement will end as long as we have a Tory PM and most likely in the short term under a Labour one too
The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.
Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.
I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.
The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.
What planet you on
Nowt happier than a grumpy old malcG
I am a ray of sunshine felix, despite the nasty tories best efforts
Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.
Clearly you are another one who likes to just imagine things rather than actually listening to the people are in the business.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!
FF43 is wrong. Both FTA and WTO are better for farmers in every sector than the current arrangements as long as there is no change to subsidies.
Not me wrong in that case - the NFU would be wrong. Given you cite the NFU as gospel that would be VERY strange! The NFU document I quoted, and which you clearly didn't read, is an update to the one from before the referendum that you linked.
The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.
Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.
I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.
The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.
I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?
The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.
*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.
The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place
That's a long time ago.
The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:
1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default; 2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.
Yougov in September found the French wanted the UK to leave the EU by an even bigger margin than the British.
Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.
The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.
Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services. Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Switzerland is not a member of the EMA.
Amazingly I can get whatever medicine I want.
I genuinely don't understand this idea that there is no life after the EU. Other countries have been fine on the outside.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
We should conduct an experiment.
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?
It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.
Why should the EU change its rules?
Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?
The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.
Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero
So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?
Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
The farmers that I have talked to have basically come to the conclusion that the only net losers will be the large agribusinesses/landowners who are basically being paid for owning land. Everyone else will be fine.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Switzerland is not a member of the EMA.
Amazingly I can get whatever medicine I want.
I genuinely don't understand this idea that there is no life after the EU. Other countries have been fine on the outside.
As williamglenn always says - time to accept our place at the heart of Europe and all that comes with it (including the euro). There is no alternative..etc
Fascinating article on Trump, voting patterns and race issues:
"The one-two punch of Obama’s presidency and Trump’s candidacy sent a clear signal to voters what the parties stood for: diversity on one side, resentment on the other. Trump built upon a decades-long campaign to erase support for the safety net by racializing government programs but extended it further by openly demonizing people of color. Graphs from political scientist Thomas Wood show this relationship clearly: voters are increasingly sorted along the lines of racial resentment."
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
Switzerland is not a member of the EMA.
Amazingly I can get whatever medicine I want.
I genuinely don't understand this idea that there is no life after the EU. Other countries have been fine on the outside.
As williamglenn always says - time to accept our place at the heart of Europe and all that comes with it (including the euro). There is no alternative..etc
I would like to put that onto a ballot paper.
Hard WTO Brexit vs Federal EU. Have no in between. Make it a real black and white choice, really ramp up the division. At least the 11 traitors would see how unpopular their views are in the real world I guess.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!
The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.
But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?
The Canada deal is subject to tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural produce. This allows you to import a certain amount of produce at a lower rate. Anything above the quota, which is set once for the entire EU incurs tariffs at prohibitive rates. There are TRQs on MFN imports, ie imports that don't benefit from a preferential trade arrangement.
What's more concerning is the cultural change and sense of entitlement. For example in the case that @Sandpit gave earlier: 30 years ago virtually no one would have thought that acceptable behaviour - now people nod and shrug
I think it’s gone the other way entirely. The outrage level over benefits cheats is surely as high as it’s ever been.
As SO pointed out - a while back people didn’t mind you waiting for a job in your field - that’s all changed now. The stigma around being on benefits is huge.
I agree outrage has gone higher than ever before - there's a feedback loop.
My point was different: that virtually no higher rate taxpayer would have even dreamt of living with someone claiming single mother benefits, renting out their own house, and pocketing the difference.
I don't think you're right about that at all - your example would be absolutely condemned nowadays, and I am confident stories like that used to happen thirty years ago.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Utter rubbish. The overwhelming majority of Tory voters want to end free movement, it is actually leaving it in place that would threaten the Tory Party and see mass defections to UKIP.
We should still get a FTA and end free movement but in a straight choice between the two the Tories have no alternative but to prioritise the latter.
You are also incorrect too, historically the Liberals have supported free trade for longer than the Tories have, at times the Tories have backed tariffs
Your honesty is commendable. The entire government Brexit strategy is about seeking to prevent Tory voters switching to UKIP!! That looks to be a very fair analysis to me.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.
Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.
Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.
Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!
The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.
But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?
The Canada deal is subject to tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural produce. This allows you to import a certain amount of produce at a lower rate. Anything above the quota, which is set once for the entire EU incurs tariffs at prohibitive rates. There are TRQs on MFN imports, ie imports that don't benefit from a preferential trade arrangement.
So I expect trade will continue between the UK and the EU after Brexit, with a lot of it under then lower rate. Aren't the quota applied to the countries exporting to the EU individually, rather than being the same for everyone? The total quota is set, but the allocation between the countries is different.
It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.
Why should the EU change its rules?
Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?
The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.
Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero
So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?
Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.
It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.
Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.
Clearly you are another one who likes to just imagine things rather than actually listening to the people are in the business.
I hate to agree with you, but I would have thought it would take literally one year?
The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.
Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.
I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.
The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.
What planet you on
The planet where we're happier than the French, which we should be able to agree is the best thing in life.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.
Nonsense - the govt of the day will be able to set the rules and will be responsible for their enforcement - that is the essence of taking back control.
Not the unfettered chaotic free for all that is happening all over the EU.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.
Nonsense - the govt of the day will be able to set the rules and will be responsible for their enforcement - that is the essence of taking back control.
Not the unfettered chaotic free for all that is happening all over the EU.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Utter rubbish. The overwhelming majority of Tory voters want to end free movement, it is actually leaving it in place that would threaten the Tory Party and see mass defections to UKIP.
We should still get a FTA and end free movement but in a straight choice between the two the Tories have no alternative but to prioritise the latter.
You are also incorrect too, historically the Liberals have supported free trade for longer than the Tories have, at times the Tories have backed tariffs
Your honesty is commendable. The entire government Brexit strategy is about seeking to prevent Tory voters switching to UKIP!! That looks to be a very fair analysis to me.
Judging from the leaflet UKIP is endeavouring to deliver nationwide this week, they are playing the same game.
The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.
Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.
I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.
The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.
What planet you on
The planet where we're happier than the French, which we should be able to agree is the best thing in life.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
We should conduct an experiment.
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?
Import them all?
Yep. And we would make them pay punitive tariffs )
It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.
Why should the EU change its rules? We are the ones leaving and it is our government that has chosen to interpret the referendum result in the way that it has. There are consequences to decisions made at the ballot box and in the Cabinet room, and the people who took them have responsibility for them.
A. 50 envisages that a country may leave the EU, and that both the leaving country, and the EU, will negotiate in good faith.
We are breaking no obligations to the EU or its member States by leaving.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.
Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.
Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be
Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.
Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.
The NAFTA TN visa could be a good model. It's only available for listed professions and requires the applicant to have a bachelor's degree, but it's issued on demand at the border when the applicant shows evidence of a qualifying job offer.
Note for Southam and others who feel Labour is all going one way: Norwich North and Rossendale have both selected PPCs who were not the favoured Momentum candidates - no complaints from anyone, 'tis democracy. Still a broad church.
The Norwich North candidate was ,however, gender vetted , and for that reason will not be getting my vote.
Comments
Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.
The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-french-people-uk-leave-eu-stay-franch-european-union-a7929156.html
Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.
The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.
The study is here:
https://www.nfuonline.com/assets/61142
If you look at the Figure ES1 on page 7 it shows the results for farm income for various scenarios with various amounts of direct subsidy.
For both FTA and WTO with the existing levels of subsidy every single sector including sheep and goats is better off (1st and 4th bars on each graph.) The only way it is worse off is with the removal of tariffs (Trade Liberalisation).
We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.
Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.
After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.
We should still get a FTA and end free movement but in a straight choice between the two the Tories have no alternative but to prioritise the latter.
You are also incorrect too, historically the Liberals have supported free trade for longer than the Tories have, at times the Tories have backed tariffs
Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/943121661146132480
2. The N Irish border issue isn't entirely settled: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed etc. Driving too hard could drive the talks off the road and unravel phase 1.
In phase 1, Ireland had an incentive to push hard for a soft Brexit and it was supported by the Commission, who saw that solution as consistent with the integrity of the SM etc. Having banked that, it now has something to lose.
Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.
It also doesn't consider any exchange rate effects - which so far have been presumably been positive for British farmers since their competitors have become more expensive in the UK, and their exports have become cheaper abroad.
My point was different: that virtually no higher rate taxpayer would have even dreamt of living with someone claiming single mother benefits, renting out their own house, and pocketing the difference.
I wonder if Jovian might be a good emperor to which May ought be compared.
Selected in haste, negotiated a deal poorly, generally not held in high regard.
We need a Valentinian, it would seem.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/18/british-farmers-uk-eu-nfu-brexit-farming
http://uk.businessinsider.com/hard-brexit-nfu-national-farmers-union-disastrous-agriculture-minette-batters-2017-1
The NFU membership also backed remain apparently:
https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/nfu-survey-of-members-on-eu-referendum/
I genuinely don't understand this idea that there is no life after the EU. Other countries have been fine on the outside.
"The one-two punch of Obama’s presidency and Trump’s candidacy sent a clear signal to voters what the parties stood for: diversity on one side, resentment on the other. Trump built upon a decades-long campaign to erase support for the safety net by racializing government programs but extended it further by openly demonizing people of color. Graphs from political scientist Thomas Wood show this relationship clearly: voters are increasingly sorted along the lines of racial resentment."
https://www.thenation.com/article/economic-anxiety-didnt-make-people-vote-trump-racism-did/
And it is the job of the government to work on behalf of consumers, not producers.
But it wouldn't be a popular move in farming communities that were reliable votes for both the Conservatives and Brexit.
Hard WTO Brexit vs Federal EU. Have no in between. Make it a real black and white choice, really ramp up the division. At least the 11 traitors would see how unpopular their views are in the real world I guess.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report#2017_World_Happiness_Report
Not the unfettered chaotic free for all that is happening all over the EU.
Only 6/10 of those entitled to JSA actually claimed it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/645577/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-2015-16.pdf
We are breaking no obligations to the EU or its member States by leaving.
Nou Fil