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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political bet

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political betting market

As we move towards the end of the year I plan to run a series of posts looking at the current active betting markets of which there are not a lot.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,487
    edited December 2017
    Great Chart. Thanks for highlighting it.

    That exponential decay of the red line as the clock ticks down is intriguing.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274
    edited December 2017
    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.
  • I'm generally backing Trump to serve a full first term, but I have been having doubts recently.
  • Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Nope, I use Chrome.
  • This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274

    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Nope, I use Chrome.
    Yes, that seems to work actually (I default to Safari for everything). Still nests a Vanilla window into the comments section when you initially log in, but the log in holds if you go back in through the front of the site.

    Less iPhone typing is a good thing.
  • Still surprised you can get around 16 (with boost) on Bottas each way (fifth odds top 3). I know I've banged on about it a bit, but that and Alonso likewise (12ish) seem like a very nice pair of bets.

    On-topic: Trump will probably still be around a while. Not an especially heroic prediction, of course.
  • I'm generally backing Trump to serve a full first term, but I have been having doubts recently.

    He's a big man, with a big appetite and a bad diet, who does very little exercise except play golf from a cart. Natural causes is what is most likely to get him, but as a very wealthy American he has access to the best healthcare in the world, so it probably won't.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    Therein lies your problem.

    Parliament is beholden to the people. Or should be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    The Labour Whips, so that can talk about something other than the party's confusion on policy?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,235

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    Cromwell believed in a Parliament beholden to the army, hence Pride's purge.
  • This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    That could be looked at in two ways of course.

    'By the bowels of Christ, what a motley, scurvy crew infects this place; I cannot rest my eyes upon thee.'
  • The Trump to leave before end of first term chart is a bit narrower: 50:50 pretty much

    https://betdata.io/trump-to-leave-before-term
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    I'm generally backing Trump to serve a full first term, but I have been having doubts recently.

    He's a big man, with a big appetite and a bad diet, who does very little exercise except play golf from a cart. Natural causes is what is most likely to get him, but as a very wealthy American he has access to the best healthcare in the world, so it probably won't.
    Eisenhower was re-elected in 1956 despite a brace of heart attacks.

    I wonder however given Trump's notorious temper whether he might be vulnerable to a sudden and debilitating stroke. That really would put a series of cats among pigeons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Try logging in from the vanilla site? Access that by clicking on any one of our user names.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 606
    tim was always entertaining when claiming that the proposed Inheritance Tax changes in 2007 were specifically intended by Osborne and Cameron to enrich themselves... not sure what he would make of a property investing President who refuses to reveal his tax returns signing off a tax relief for, er, property investors... a list of the 20 republican senators who, like Trump, have interests in the precise form of property investments that will benefit is available... fortunately for them, the reform bill that was meant to simplify the tax code made an exception in their case... as Pod Save America has wittily coined it: the 2017 Donor Relief Act
  • Mortimer said:

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    Therein lies your problem.

    Parliament is beholden to the people. Or should be.
    Duh. I know. But once they are there they shouldn’t be beholden to an unelected deluded half wit who thinks a giant sky fairy has chosen them specifically to be Monarch.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    My betting is based on the Senate arithmetic which means he won't be impeached. The only risk to my bet is that he might simply resign because he's no longer enjoying it and it is trashing his business interests, saying to the Republican party - "I could have made America great but you blew it." That's much less likely after the tax bill passes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,487

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    That could be looked at in two ways of course.

    'By the bowels of Christ, what a motley, scurvy crew infects this place; I cannot rest my eyes upon thee.'
    Looks like the panel wall is next to the changing rooms.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
  • ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    There’s been stories that John Kelly and James Mattis with physically tackle Trump before he tries to launch the nukes.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.gq.com/story/nuclear-football-tackle/amp


    And the Pentagon have added extra protocols for launches.
  • RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Try logging in from the vanilla site? Access that by clicking on any one of our user names.
    I can't ever use iOS devices to comment - am I missing something?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited December 2017
    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    My betting is based on the Senate arithmetic which means he won't be impeached. The only risk to my bet is that he might simply resign because he's no longer enjoying it and it is trashing his business interests, saying to the Republican party - "I could have made America great but you blew it." That's much less likely after the tax bill passes.

    Not true, 2016 polling had Pence doing slightly worse against Clinton than Trump did. Pence lacks Trump's charisma and some blue-collar rustbelt Democrats who voted for Trump might not bother to turn out for Pence or vote Democrat even if Pence kept the evangelical vote.
  • Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020
  • This headline is not from the Daily Mash, honest:

    Loud orgies of Mexican fish could deafen dolphins, say scientists
  • This headline is not from the Daily Mash, honest:

    Loud orgies of Mexican fish could deafen dolphins, say scientists

    Nobody likes a screamer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    This headline is not from the Daily Mash, honest:

    Loud orgies of Mexican fish could deafen dolphins, say scientists

    Nobody likes a screamer.
    Says the man who once wrote a thread with the word 'dominatrices' in it.
  • This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.



    Looks like Jeremy and John had a bit too much parsnip wine at the Labour leadership's winter-tide knees-up.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited December 2017
    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184
  • RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Try logging in from the vanilla site? Access that by clicking on any one of our user names.
    I can't ever use iOS devices to comment - am I missing something?
    This comment is from my iPhone...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,417
    edited December 2017

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    That's a bit short. I imagine the reason is that they want the end date to coincide with the end of their budget year (and the end of the current multi-year budget framework) , which does make some sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
    Though I can't see Gilibrand getting it and Warren is more likely to be the running mate for Sanders than the actual nominee in my view but still a long way to go yet
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Try logging in from the vanilla site? Access that by clicking on any one of our user names.
    Interestingly that worked - the logged in status carried back across to a new PB window. Thanks for the suggestion *closes Chrome for another 6 months*
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274

    Mortimer said:

    This is a grave insult to democrats everywhere especially those of us who believe in a sovereign Parliament beholden to no one.

    Therein lies your problem.

    Parliament is beholden to the people. Or should be.
    Duh. I know. But once they are there they shouldn’t be beholden to an unelected deluded half wit who thinks a giant sky fairy has chosen them specifically to be Monarch.

    Even by your standards that's quite a harsh description of May.
  • On topic, if I've got this right you need 67 votes to impeach, and the Dems start with 49, so they need to win 18 seats from the Republicans next year, which will be a tough job given that there are only 8 Republicans up for election.

    What's left is:
    a) Trump resigns out of shame
    b) Lots of Republicans defect
    c) His own cabinet makes a move against him
    d) Medical issues, such as death

    ...where (a), (b) seem distinctly improbable.
    That he's got this far without (c) suggests they generally think they can manage him, so you can't quite rule it out but it's quite unlikely.

    Old fat guy in a high-stress job, symptoms appearing not unadjacent to Alzheimer's etc, has to be a non-trivial possibility, but I reckon the value is with Remain. And that fits the general rule that you should bet on things not happening.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    I guess you're referring to para 4. It's for domestic consumption only - none of the agreements in stage one can be passed into legal commitments until stage two is complete, because they aren't agreed in any detail.
  • Ladbrokes/Coral have a Trump exit in 2019 on offer at 9/1. You can lay that on Betfair at less than one half that price. Even allowing for time value of money and taking credit risk on L/C and B/F this, unless I am missing something, is a must do for the max that one can afford to tie up (for a couple of years max and less if he goes in 2018).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
    Though I can't see Gilibrand getting it and Warren is more likely to be the running mate for Sanders than the actual nominee in my view but still a long way to go yet
    A POTUS and Veep both the wrong side of 70 would be a hard electoral sell I think, even if the alternative is more Trump. That's particularly true as two that you list will be nearer 80 than 70. If one of the old guard is the nominee they will need a younger running mate. Otherwise, the risk of both dying or worse, being incapacitated will be seen as far too high.

    Remember, the 25th Amendment only assumes the President's incapacity - if the President and the Vice President are both incapacitated the constitution is silent on what happens next and the procedure to invoke. Indeed, it's easier from that point of view if they both die as then the line of succession is pretty clear.
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
  • Given the short timeframe of the proposed transition, they'll probably wear it. In any case there is zero chance of the EU bending on this, and no practical way in which they could bend on it (it's just too complicated to carry out a negotiation on exactly which bits of EU law will apply for 20 months) , so it's academic.
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
  • We'd better get started negotiating those trade deals....
  • Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    That's a bit short. I imagine the reason is that they want the end date to coincide with the end of their budget year (and the end of the current multi-year budget framework) , which does make some sense.
    That’s it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited December 2017
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
    Though I can't see Gilibrand getting it and Warren is more likely to be the running mate for Sanders than the actual nominee in my view but still a long way to go yet
    A POTUS and Veep both the wrong side of 70 would be a hard electoral sell I think, even if the alternative is more Trump. That's particularly true as two that you list will be nearer 80 than 70. If one of the old guard is the nominee they will need a younger running mate. Otherwise, the risk of both dying or worse, being incapacitated will be seen as far too high.

    Remember, the 25th Amendment only assumes the President's incapacity - if the President and the Vice President are both incapacitated the constitution is silent on what happens next and the procedure to invoke. Indeed, it's easier from that point of view if they both die as then the line of succession is pretty clear.
    Warren would be 71 in 2020 and Trump 75. A Sanders Warren ticket would make sense as the best way of mobilising the Democratic base but Sanders may prefer someone younger true and could even promise just to serve one term as he would be 79 in 2020
  • TonyE said:

    I guess you're referring to para 4. It's for domestic consumption only - none of the agreements in stage one can be passed into legal commitments until stage two is complete, because they aren't agreed in any detail.

    That will be the subject of discussion. Clearly, if the UK wants a deal it will do as the EU requires. If it doesn't it does have the option of walking away.

    I think that JRM may not be too delighted by Section 11 onwards.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
    May will likely have gone by then and a difference of a year makes little difference compared to a difference of 3 years as was the case in 2017
  • I guess German car manufacturers are going to insist we get a full two year transition ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
    May will likely have gone by then and a difference of a year makes little difference compared to a difference of 3 years as was the case in 2017
    A little difference is a 1% swing which will make Corbyn PM.

    Anyhoo I remember when you said a 2019 election was likely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    From former head of the EU’s legal service:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,941
    Shortening the transition should help focus minds on both sides - get a move on.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    That's a bit short. I imagine the reason is that they want the end date to coincide with the end of their budget year (and the end of the current multi-year budget framework) , which does make some sense.
    That’s it.
    If we get nervous [sensible] about an impossibly short transition period, I guess the other option mooted would be to stick around until the end of the next multi-year framework. Is it a 5 year cycle?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
    May will likely have gone by then and a difference of a year makes little difference compared to a difference of 3 years as was the case in 2017
    A little difference is a 1% swing which will make Corbyn PM.

    Anyhoo I remember when you said a 2019 election was likely.
    Not necessarily, much of the swing since June has been from Tory to UKIP which would go back if we were finally out of the EU and single market and free movement had ended by 2021.

    A 2019 election is not impossible but I think the next leader will want to ensure we are out of the EU and transition period when they call it to get the base out, though not leave it too long post transition either
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal

    For Corbyn, the key is leaving. That happens in March 2019. He'd be very happy to do a final deal once we have left.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal
    I don't think Corbyn would be too fussed either way - in some ways he still sees Brexit as a second order issue and would like to be in power sooner in order to do the things he sees as important. Strategically, a rational Labour party view would to want to to be buttoned down shortly before the next GE but with enough messiness that they can campaign on the terrible deal done by the divided Tories and promise 17 contradictory things that they can do to improve it if elected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Fair enough, if we're still basically members it's only right that we pay our dues. It does confirm that the exit bill is a lower than £39bn though.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
    May will likely have gone by then and a difference of a year makes little difference compared to a difference of 3 years as was the case in 2017
    A little difference is a 1% swing which will make Corbyn PM.

    Anyhoo I remember when you said a 2019 election was likely.
    Not necessarily, much of the swing since June has been from Tory to UKIP which would go back if we were finally out of the EU and single market and free movement had ended by 2021.

    A 2019 election is not impossible but I think the next leader will want to ensure we are out of the EU and transition period when they call it to get the base out, though not leave it too long post transition either
    I’m trying to think of a recent example where people thought Kippers would overwhelmingly
    move to the Tories turned out to be rubbish?

    Anyone got any suggestions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Polruan said:

    RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Second...

    And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.

    Try logging in from the vanilla site? Access that by clicking on any one of our user names.
    Interestingly that worked - the logged in status carried back across to a new PB window. Thanks for the suggestion *closes Chrome for another 6 months*
    I've had the same problem myself in the past. Glad it worked!
  • Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal
    I don't think Corbyn would be too fussed either way - in some ways he still sees Brexit as a second order issue and would like to be in power sooner in order to do the things he sees as important. Strategically, a rational Labour party view would to want to to be buttoned down shortly before the next GE but with enough messiness that they can campaign on the terrible deal done by the divided Tories and promise 17 contradictory things that they can do to improve it if elected.

    We're leaving in 2019, so it will be done and dusted by the time of the next GE. However, it is very unlikely that a new FTA with the EU will be negotiated by then. I can't see why Labour would not want to be in charge of seeing that through to completion.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
    Though I can't see Gilibrand getting it and Warren is more likely to be the running mate for Sanders than the actual nominee in my view but still a long way to go yet
    A POTUS and Veep both the wrong side of 70 would be a hard electoral sell I think, even if the alternative is more Trump. That's particularly true as two that you list will be nearer 80 than 70. If one of the old guard is the nominee they will need a younger running mate. Otherwise, the risk of both dying or worse, being incapacitated will be seen as far too high.

    Remember, the 25th Amendment only assumes the President's incapacity - if the President and the Vice President are both incapacitated the constitution is silent on what happens next and the procedure to invoke. Indeed, it's easier from that point of view if they both die as then the line of succession is pretty clear.
    Warren would be 71 in 2020 and Trump 75. A Sanders Warren ticket would make sense as the best way of mobilising the Democratic base but Sanders may prefer someone younger true and could even promise just to serve one term as he would be 79 in 2020
    Yes, I know she would be younger than Trump.

    But Pence will be 61. That's the risk - two septuagenarians up against a septuagenarian and somebody younger.

    Also mobilising the base isn't really enough. The key is reaching out to uncommitted voters in swing states. Trump did that really well, Clinton did not. What she did instead was pile up huge majorities where the blues were already strong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over
    Tory MPs are still too traumatised by the last snap election to vote for another one.
    May will likely have gone by then and a difference of a year makes little difference compared to a difference of 3 years as was the case in 2017
    A little difference is a 1% swing which will make Corbyn PM.

    Anyhoo I remember when you said a 2019 election was likely.
    Not necessarily, much of the swing since June has been from Tory to UKIP which would go back if we were finally out of the EU and single market and free movement had ended by 2021.

    A 2019 election is not impossible but I think the next leader will want to ensure we are out of the EU and transition period when they call it to get the base out, though not leave it too long post transition either
    I’m trying to think of a recent example where people thought Kippers would overwhelmingly
    move to the Tories turned out to be rubbish?

    Anyone got any suggestions.
    Actually they did. Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in June, it was just Corbyn also got 20% of 2015 UKIP voters to add to the 2015 LDs, 2015 Green voters 2015 SNP voters and a few Tories annoyed by the dementia tax or diehard Remainers that he also got
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
  • Polruan said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    That's a bit short. I imagine the reason is that they want the end date to coincide with the end of their budget year (and the end of the current multi-year budget framework) , which does make some sense.
    That’s it.
    If we get nervous [sensible] about an impossibly short transition period, I guess the other option mooted would be to stick around until the end of the next multi-year framework. Is it a 5 year cycle?
    Signing up for a new five year budget deal wouldn’t surprise me given how poor a negotiator David Davis is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal

    For Corbyn, the key is leaving. That happens in March 2019. He'd be very happy to do a final deal once we have left.

    Which leaves Corbyn either annoying middle class Labour Remainers by still leaving the single market and just trying for a FTA or working class Labour Leave voters by keeping free movement and staying permanently in the single market
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see, although I've always heard that called the football. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal
    I don't think Corbyn would be too fussed either way - in some ways he still sees Brexit as a second order issue and would like to be in power sooner in order to do the things he sees as important. Strategically, a rational Labour party view would to want to to be buttoned down shortly before the next GE but with enough messiness that they can campaign on the terrible deal done by the divided Tories and promise 17 contradictory things that they can do to improve it if elected.
    All fine in opposition rather different in government when you have to implement it which a PM Corbyn would have to do
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
    No, although it is common for his opponents to portray him as a child. I think that's incorrect... he knows what he is doing.
  • ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see, although I've always heard that called the football. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
    The football is the hardware.

    The biscuit is the authenticator card to use with it.
  • We're leaving in 2019, so it will be done and dusted by the time of the next GE. However, it is very unlikely that a new FTA with the EU will be negotiated by then. I can't see why Labour would not want to be in charge of seeing that through to completion.

    I think the FTA will be agreed in outline during 2018. Of course there will be lots of detailed work to be done to formalise it, but the political decisions will have been taken and agreed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see, although I've always heard that called the football. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
    The football is the hardware.

    The biscuit is the authenticator card to use with it.
    I thought the football was the case, and the biscuit was the hardware. :p
  • Which means I have to share this.

    Don’t panic, but for 15 years during the Cold War, the code meant to prevent unauthorized launching of the United States’ arsenal of Minuteman nuclear missiles was apparently “00000000.”

    The alarmingly insecure “Permissive Action Link“ (PAL) code first came to light in 2004, after Bruce Blair, a former Minuteman missile launch control officer, disclosed it in a column for the Center for Defense Information.

    https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/4386784
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited December 2017
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PPP poll last week for 2020 had Biden beating Trump 54% to 40%, Sanders beating Trump 53% to 40%, Warren beating Trump 51% to 42% and Gilibrand beating Trump 47% to 40%.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184

    And one of them will still be under 70 at the time of the next election. Heck, two will be under 75!
    Though I can't see Gilibrand getting it and Warren is more likely to be the running mate for Sanders than the actual nominee in my view but still a long way to go yet
    A POTUS and Veep both the wrong side of 70 would be a hard electoral sell I think, even if the alternative is more Trump. That's particularly true as two that you list will be nearer 80 than 70. If one of the old guard is the nominee they will need a younger running mate. Otherwise, the risk of both dying or worse, being incapacitated will be seen as far too high.

    Remember, the 25th Amendment only assumes the President's incapacity - if the President and the Vice President are both incapacitated the constitution is silent on what happens next and the procedure to invoke. Indeed, it's easier from that point of view if they both die as then the line of succession is pretty clear.
    Warren would be 71 in 2020 and Trump 75. A Sanders Warren ticket would make sense as the best way of mobilising the Democratic base but Sanders may prefer someone younger true and could even promise just to serve one term as he would be 79 in 2020
    Yes, I know she would be younger than Trump.

    But Pence will be 61. That's the risk - two septuagenarians up against a septuagenarian and somebody younger.

    Also mobilising the base isn't really enough. The key is reaching out to uncommitted voters in swing states. Trump did that really well, Clinton did not. What she did instead was pile up huge majorities where the blues were already strong.
    Even Pence is over 60 then and nobody votes because of the age of the VP.

    A 13% lead for Sanders over Trump as PPP currently has would see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964 at the presidential level, as for the Electoral College remember Hillary lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by less than 1% each, had she won all 3 she would have won the Electoral College. Sanders is also a better candidate for the rustbelt than Hillary was
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal
    I don't think Corbyn would be too fussed either way - in some ways he still sees Brexit as a second order issue and would like to be in power sooner in order to do the things he sees as important. Strategically, a rational Labour party view would to want to to be buttoned down shortly before the next GE but with enough messiness that they can campaign on the terrible deal done by the divided Tories and promise 17 contradictory things that they can do to improve it if elected.
    All fine in opposition rather different in government when you have to implement it which a PM Corbyn would have to do
    That's kind of my point - the best time to be campaigning from opposition would be when the government have just agreed a messy, unpopular compromise (which will inevitably be the outcome, unless it's even worse than that). Sure there will be implementation, but as the 2010-2015 government shows you have a long grace period to blame the previous incumbent for all ills.
  • RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see, although I've always heard that called the football. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
    The football is the hardware.

    The biscuit is the authenticator card to use with it.
    I thought the football was the case, and the biscuit was the hardware. :p
    The nuclear football (also known as the atomic football, the President's emergency satchel, the Presidential Emergency Satchel,[1] the button, the black box, or just the football) is a briefcase, the contents of which are to be used by the President of the United States to authorize a nuclear attack while away from fixed command centers, such as the White House Situation Room. It functions as a mobile hub in the strategic defense system of the United States. It is held by an aide-de-camp....

    ....Before the order can be processed by the military, the president must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit".

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football
  • We're leaving in 2019, so it will be done and dusted by the time of the next GE. However, it is very unlikely that a new FTA with the EU will be negotiated by then. I can't see why Labour would not want to be in charge of seeing that through to completion.

    I think the FTA will be agreed in outline during 2018. Of course there will be lots of detailed work to be done to formalise it, but the political decisions will have been taken and agreed.

    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    It is possible that electoral uncertainty will make the EU cautious about agreeing anything major. This goes back to your point about the June election, I guess.

  • Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm hoping (and betting) that he will survive until 2020.

    My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.

    Agree entirely on Pence, but WTF do you mean by those words in bold?
    Guess he's talking about Trump authority (or lack thereof) to launch nukes.
    Still seems a surreal euphemism.

    Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
    The biscuit is the bit of hardware that the command to launch the nukes is issues from.
    Ah, I see, although I've always heard that called the football. I thought it was a reference to him being like a child, and having his biscuit removed because of a tantrum.
    The football is the hardware.

    The biscuit is the authenticator card to use with it.
    I thought the football was the case, and the biscuit was the hardware. :p
    The nuclear football (also known as the atomic football, the President's emergency satchel, the Presidential Emergency Satchel,[1] the button, the black box, or just the football) is a briefcase, the contents of which are to be used by the President of the United States to authorize a nuclear attack while away from fixed command centers, such as the White House Situation Room. It functions as a mobile hub in the strategic defense system of the United States. It is held by an aide-de-camp....

    ....Before the order can be processed by the military, the president must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit".

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football
    Ah, more BBC fake news: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38651616 ;)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal

    For Corbyn, the key is leaving. That happens in March 2019. He'd be very happy to do a final deal once we have left.

    Which leaves Corbyn either annoying middle class Labour Remainers by still leaving the single market and just trying for a FTA or working class Labour Leave voters by keeping free movement and staying permanently in the single market

    That will depend on the Tory offering.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274
    EC press notice on departure and transition just released (via Guardian liveblog):

    The draft negotiating directives, which supplement the negotiating directives from May 2017, set out additional details on possible transitional arrangements. These include, in particular, the following:

    There should be no “cherry picking”: The United Kingdom will continue to participate in the customs union and the single market (with all four freedoms). The union acquis should continue to apply in full to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a member state. Any changes made to the acquis during this time should automatically apply to the United Kingdom.

    All existing union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will apply, including the competence of the court of justice of the European Union.

    The United Kingdom will be a third country as of 30 March 2019. As a result, it will no longer be represented in union institutions, agencies, bodies and offices.

    The transition period needs to be clearly defined and precisely limited in time. The commission recommends that it should not last beyond 31 December 2020.

    The recommendation also recalls the need to translate into legal terms the results of the first phase of the negotiations, as outlined in the commission’s communication and joint report. It underlines that work needs to be completed on all withdrawal issues, including those not yet addressed in the first phase, such as the overall governance of the withdrawal agreement and substantive issues such as goods placed on the market before the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sanders is also a better candidate for the rustbelt than Hillary was

    This is also true of basically all the other candidates, and indeed a majority of Americans.
  • Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Wow.
  • Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Wow.
    Not sure why this is a surprise. Corbyn is a Leaver. Simples.
  • Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Wow.
    Where's the wow? Trade is bourgeois.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,274

    Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Wow.
    Any firm position in favour of an outcome that could be painted as defying the clear instructions of the referendum™ just serves to unite the Tories against Labour for a few days. No upside unless there's reasonable certainty of defeating the government in a vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130

    Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Sensible.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,837

    Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Wow.
    Where's the wow? Trade is bourgeois.
    Is the 'Wow' the fact that the Guardian has the resources to run a live blog?
  • Betting alert.

    The White House has pledged to announce details of Donald Trump’s proposed visit to the UK imminently amid speculation that he will travel to London within weeks.

    The US President is considered increasingly likely to be present for the official opening of his country’s new embassy on the banks of the Thames at Nine Elms in February.

    Mr Trump and Theresa May spoke on Tuesday, in their first phone conversation after the Prime Minister criticised the President for re-tweeting videos posted by far-right group Britain First.

    Mr Trump had then hit back at her on Twitter, sparking fears of a diplomatic rift.

    Asked whether the possibility of a visit to the UK had been discussed during the call, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said: "That invitation has been extended and accepted. We're working with them to finalise the details, which we expect to announce soon.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-uk-visit-announcement-soon-amid-speculation-he-could-arrive-in-london-within-weeks-a3723996.html
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    MaxPB said:

    Labour MPs told not to back Chris Leslie's amendment on keeping UK in customs union

    Guardian live blog, 11:26

    Sensible.
    Sensible because it's legally impossible. The Customs union IS the EU - its part of the EU treaty. The Single Market is not, so there they may have an argument. But not the CU. The fact that Leslie is presenting an amendment on it is quite extraordinary, unless it only seeks to 'replicate' the current arrangements.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,024

    Betting alert.

    The White House has pledged to announce details of Donald Trump’s proposed visit to the UK imminently amid speculation that he will travel to London within weeks.

    The US President is considered increasingly likely to be present for the official opening of his country’s new embassy on the banks of the Thames at Nine Elms in February.

    Mr Trump and Theresa May spoke on Tuesday, in their first phone conversation after the Prime Minister criticised the President for re-tweeting videos posted by far-right group Britain First.

    Mr Trump had then hit back at her on Twitter, sparking fears of a diplomatic rift.

    Asked whether the possibility of a visit to the UK had been discussed during the call, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said: "That invitation has been extended and accepted. We're working with them to finalise the details, which we expect to announce soon.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-uk-visit-announcement-soon-amid-speculation-he-could-arrive-in-london-within-weeks-a3723996.html

    Going to be fun when the moron arrives in London...
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting.

    The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020

    Which would make a 2021 general election likely once we are out of the EU and the transition is over

    I guess that is right. It puts huge pressure on the government to deliver a final deal within the transition period, too. It will not want to run the risk that this might be left to Labour.
    For Remainers maybe for Leavers the main thing is to be out before the next general election. Corbyn does not want to have to negotiate the final deal

    For Corbyn, the key is leaving. That happens in March 2019. He'd be very happy to do a final deal once we have left.

    Which leaves Corbyn either annoying middle class Labour Remainers by still leaving the single market and just trying for a FTA or working class Labour Leave voters by keeping free movement and staying permanently in the single market
    Cobyn has had his cake and eaten it for quite some time on the EU. But sooner or later, he's either going to lose remainers to the Lib Dems or Brexiteers back to UKIP or more likely to voting apathy.

    He's on a sticky wicket really, the fact that the media spends so little time discussing this suggests that they still think that they are now the opposition and Corbyn is largely irrelevant.
This discussion has been closed.