A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
But 2 Conservative MPs are not enough to unseat her. I'm with HandyMandy on this one - I think she'll lead the Tories into the next GE... a) because she won't quit, b) for the want of anyone better, and c) because by the time Brexit is clear it will be too near to the next GE to change leader.
It's not 2 MPs, it's approximately 314 MPs, and perhaps 316, the only two in doubt being Mrs May herself and perhaps Damian Green.
David H is right: there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that Theresa May will be leader at the next GE, except in the very limited circumstances where the government falls suddenly and unexpectedly in the next year or so and there's no time to change leader.
The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that she will retire with grace having successfully taken the UK out of the EU. There will be much praise for her, some of it even deserved, and everyone will be civil about it. But then, as Churchill observed, it costs nothing to be civil to someone you are about to hang.
A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
Or people are confusing Eurozone/EU membership?
Thanks to Brexit, they will be synonymous for us in future.
But 2 Conservative MPs are not enough to unseat her. I'm with HandyMandy on this one - I think she'll lead the Tories into the next GE... a) because she won't quit, b) for the want of anyone better, and c) because by the time Brexit is clear it will be too near to the next GE to change leader.
David H is right: there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that Theresa May will be leader at the next GE, except in the very limited circumstances where the government falls suddenly and unexpectedly in the next year or so and there's no time to change leader.
Brought to you by the same people that said she wouldn't last the week. Twenty weeks ago.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
Or people are confusing Eurozone/EU membership?
Thanks to Brexit, they will be synonymous for us in future.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
She's also a piss-poor campaigner who's still in touch with Nick Timothy and is ultra-defensive. I've had it direct from 2 Con MPs that she won't be allowed to contest another general election as leader. I believe them.
We had all this with Mrs Thatcher before the Falklands War.
You just wait and see the press swing behind her after we Brexit. You reckon MP's will try swimming against that tide? Good luck.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
But 2 Conservative MPs are not enough to unseat her. I'm with HandyMandy on this one - I think she'll lead the Tories into the next GE... a) because she won't quit, b) for the want of anyone better, and c) because by the time Brexit is clear it will be too near to the next GE to change leader.
David H is right: there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that Theresa May will be leader at the next GE, except in the very limited circumstances where the government falls suddenly and unexpectedly in the next year or so and there's no time to change leader.
Brought to you by the same people that said she wouldn't last the week. Twenty weeks ago.
No. It's true that twenty-odd weeks ago there was a significant chance that she wouldn't last the week, but, having survived that critical period, she's here to stay for a while, unless there is some major new disruption. 'For a while' means until at least the middle of 2019, perhaps into 2020. It doesn't mean through the next GE.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
She's also a piss-poor campaigner who's still in touch with Nick Timothy and is ultra-defensive. I've had it direct from 2 Con MPs that she won't be allowed to contest another general election as leader. I believe them.
We had all this with Mrs Thatcher before the Falklands War.
You just wait and see the press swing behind her after we Brexit. You reckon MP's will try swimming against that tide? Good luck.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
No we didn't, Mrs Thatcher hadn't lost a Tory majority, then or ever
A big swing in favour of closer EU integration while we're in the midst of Brexit negotiations tells you that there is increasing polarisation and increasing discontent with the direction we're heading in.
Or people are confusing Eurozone/EU membership?
Thanks to Brexit, they will be synonymous for us in future.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
You are far from alone. But these particular turbulent times will be over, and attention will turn to the new potential turbulent times on the horizon - a general election with the risk of Corbyn becoming PM, McDonnell becoming Chancellor, and Diane Abbott becoming Home Secretary, with Jon Lansman and Seamas Milne behind the scenes. It is simply too great a risk.
So Theresa appears to be on the up. Boris must be in despair. How long before his writes another article or gives another speech trying to undermine totally her position on Brexit? I'll give it 48 hours.
I wouldn't rule out the Tories being on 45% again in the polls within the next few months.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
She's also a piss-poor campaigner who's still in touch with Nick Timothy and is ultra-defensive. I've had it direct from 2 Con MPs that she won't be allowed to contest another general election as leader. I believe them.
But 2 Conservative MPs are not enough to unseat her. I'm with HandyMandy on this one - I think she'll lead the Tories into the next GE... a) because she won't quit, b) for the want of anyone better, and c) because by the time Brexit is clear it will be too near to the next GE to change leader.
Yes. I'm with you on that. I bet Boris thinks so too - why else does he keep trying to upset the apple cart?
If a third of the electorate really wants the single currency, it's surprising the Lib Dems aren't doing better.
The danger of going out of your way to alienate half (or more) of the population is that the other half of the population pushes harder back against you.
This is the madness of the Brexiteers – by refusing to find compromise and allowing their groundless obsession over freedom of movement block any chance of a sensible deal, they are inviting Remainers to push back and adopt a more fundamentalist position (in this case Euro entry).
It is now clear that the Right have co-opted Brexit to turn the UK into a more closed, socially conservative place that the successful, outward looking parts of the country strongly oppose.
So Theresa appears to be on the up. Boris must be in despair. How long before his writes another article or gives another speech trying to undermine totally her position on Brexit? I'll give it 48 hours.
I wouldn't rule out the Tories being on 45% again in the polls within the next few months.
Nor me. But I would rue out the witless Theresa May ever fighting another GE. She is utterly hopeless in that regard.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
She's also a piss-poor campaigner who's still in touch with Nick Timothy and is ultra-defensive. I've had it direct from 2 Con MPs that she won't be allowed to contest another general election as leader. I believe them.
We had all this with Mrs Thatcher before the Falklands War.
You just wait and see the press swing behind her after we Brexit. You reckon MP's will try swimming against that tide? Good luck.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
You should meet CarlottaVance/Theresa May whom I have noted are never in the same room at the same time. You would like her!
Merry Xmas - can all remainers including A. Meeks please prostrate themselves on the ground, flog themselves and apologise for this on behalf of the cult of remainerdom please ?
Mr/Miss Anazina, fortunately, the electorate can affect government policy in this area by the simple medium of voting at elections every few years.
It will be too late by 2022. The government tried to override the FTPA for their own ends, asked a question, got their answer, and are ploughing on regardless.
The Brexit Right's obsession with blocking freedom of movement is killing any chance of getting a decent deal. And there is no majority in the country for it.
Osborne is working late – it's 18.27 and he's still in the office. He is supposed to be a family man. Does anyone have the necessary software to magnify and read the text message on his iPhone?
Merry Xmas - can all remainers including A. Meeks please prostrate themselves on the ground, flog themselves and apologise for this on behalf of the cult of remainerdom please ?
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spain vote that has traditionally sat-out Catalan elections. However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally. PP will definitely lose seats - most transferred to Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Mr/Miss Anazina, fortunately, the electorate can affect government policy in this area by the simple medium of voting at elections every few years.
It will be too late by 2022. The government tried to override the FTPA for their own ends, asked a question, got their answer, and are ploughing on regardless.
The Brexit Right's obsession with blocking freedom of movement is killing any chance of getting a decent deal. And there is no majority in the country for it.
Actually it is working class Leave voters, including Labour Leave voters, who will be most infuriated if freedom of movement is left in place. Most of the Brexit Right are more concerned with ending ECJ jurisdiction and ending regulatory alignment with the EU than they are with freedom of movement.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
Most polls seem to give Podemos the balance of power in the Catalan Parliament, which would mean no majority for UDI but probably a majority for another independence referendum
However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally.
Do you think he still has any international credibility at all after his actions in the last six months? That's a serious question.
To me as the complete outsider who knows SFA about Spanish politics I would say he was more or less completely discredited after that bungling of the referendum. Domestically I'm not going to venture an opinion as I don't know enough.
So Leave would win a landslide if rejoining the Euro was a condition of EU reentry.
In any case Italy may be having a referendum on the Euro itself in a year or two if, as polls predict, 5* win most seats in the Italian general election in May and the EU do not make the concessions they want.
Theresa May, wearing blue, leaves PMQ's to cheers of 'more' from her backbenchers.
She's one tough cookie this lady. Write her off at your peril. I continue to think she will not only lead the country through Brexit but will lead the Conservatives to a win at the next General Election.
I remember just how low Margaret Thatcher sank before the Falklands War. The rest is history.
They won't trust her with another GE - for they know already that there is no poll lead that they could afford to treat as safe, with her at the helm.
Untrue. She will learn from what happened. After she has steered us through Brexit the current neck-and-neck will turn to 10% Cons lead + and we will all know what we get: a safe pair of hands through turbulent times.
She's a fighter an demonstrating that she has great ability to hold together a party that might otherwise finish the job of tearing itself apart.
She's also a piss-poor campaigner who's still in touch with Nick Timothy and is ultra-defensive. I've had it direct from 2 Con MPs that she won't be allowed to contest another general election as leader. I believe them.
We had all this with Mrs Thatcher before the Falklands War.
You just wait and see the press swing behind her after we Brexit. You reckon MP's will try swimming against that tide? Good luck.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
You should meet CarlottaVance/Theresa May whom I have noted are never in the same room at the same time. You would like her!
Theresa May (or Brasier as she was then) and I have most definitely been in the same room at the same time. You might like her, if you could get past your prejudice.....
However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally.
Do you think he still has any international credibility at all after his actions in the last six months? That's a serious question.
To me as the complete outsider who knows SFA about Spanish politics I would say he was more or less completely discredited after that bungling of the referendum. Domestically I'm not going to venture an opinion as I don't know enough.
In private, I am sure that most governments think Rajoy has behaved like an imbecile over a sustained period of time, but separatism is a hot potato so in public they say it is an internal matter for Spain - and while parties backing separation get less than 50% of the vote in Catalonia that is fair enough. Should that change, it makes it much harder to sustain such a position.
Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Croatia, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic all opposed to joining the Euro too of current non Eurozone EU nations. Only Hungary and Romania in favour.
Don't worry, Verhofstadt will be along directly to tell us that 6 of the 8 showing reservations about Euro membership is s a sign that the EU's proposals for further integration are very popular and clearly right.
In private, I am sure that most governments think Rajoy has behaved like an imbecile over a sustained period of time, but separatism is a hot potato so in public they say it is an internal matter for Spain - and while parties backing separation get less than 50% of the vote in Catalonia that is fair enough. Should that change, it makes it much harder to sustain such a position.
I see.
But I have to say I would be upset if heads of government were privately using language like 'imbecile' about Rajoy. That would be grossly unfair and defamatory and should be stopped out of respect for the rights of imbeciles.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spain vote that has traditionally sat-out Catalan elections. However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally. PP will definitely lose seats - most transferred to Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the separatists get a majority, he is as stubborn as the rest of the PP. Plus on the latest national polls the PP is still ahead. It would just mean the Catalan situation is back to square 1 again, Madrid v Barcelona.
Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Croatia, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic all opposed to joining the Euro too of current non Eurozone EU nations. Only Hungary and Romania in favour.
Don't worry, Verhofstadt will be along directly to tell us that 6 of the 8 showing reservations about Euro membership is s a sign that the EU's proposals for further integration are very popular and clearly right.
Which would also make inevitable a two-tier EU, Eurozone and non-Eurozone.
A Manchester United supporter and convicted football hooligan has been jailed for a racist attack on Raheem Sterling that left the Manchester City and England forward in a state of “complete shock”.
Karl Anderson, 29, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to racially aggravated common assault after an unprovoked attack on Sterling outside City’s training ground on Saturday morning that was first revealed by Telegraph Sport.
Manchester and Salford Magistrates’ Court heard how Anderson, who already had 25 convictions for 37 offences, including football related violence, told Sterling: “I hope your mother and child wake up dead in the morning you n-----” before kicking the player in the legs four times and leaving him with a sore left hamstring.
Anderson, of Woodward Street in Ancoats, Manchester, had been issued with a five-year banning order in January for his part in clashes with Sheffield United fans in the Shamrock pub in Bengal Street, Ancoats, following a FA Cup third round tie between the Yorkshire club and Manchester United at Old Trafford 12 months earlier.
In private, I am sure that most governments think Rajoy has behaved like an imbecile over a sustained period of time, but separatism is a hot potato so in public they say it is an internal matter for Spain - and while parties backing separation get less than 50% of the vote in Catalonia that is fair enough. Should that change, it makes it much harder to sustain such a position.
I see.
But I have to say I would be upset if heads of government were privately using language like 'imbecile' about Rajoy. That would be grossly unfair and defamatory and should be stopped out of respect for the rights of imbeciles.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spain vote that has traditionally sat-out Catalan elections. However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally. PP will definitely lose seats - most transferred to Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the separatists get a majority, he is as stubborn as the rest of the PP. Plus on the latest national polls the PP is still ahead. It would just mean the Catalan situation is back to square 1 again, Madrid v Barcelona.
The separatists have a much better chance of internationalising the dispute if they get over 50% of the vote. And internationalise is what they must do.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spa
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the .
The separatists have a much better chance of internationalising the dispute if they get over 50% of the vote. And internationalise is what they must do.
They may well try to but Spain has the armed forces and the civil guard, Catalonia just its own police force.
May will of course also still back Madrid, she does not want to give Edinburgh any future ideas. As will Trudeau, for the same reason in relation to Quebec City. Merkel and Macron and Trump will also likely still back Rajoy and as long as he has those 5 G7 leaders on board he does not really need to worry about what other world leaders think.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spain vote that has traditionally sat-out Catalan elections. However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally. PP will definitely lose seats - most transferred to Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the separatists get a majority, he is as stubborn as the rest of the PP. Plus on the latest national polls the PP is still ahead. It would just mean the Catalan situation is back to square 1 again, Madrid v Barcelona.
The problem with Catalonia is that the separatists can get 42-46% in the polls, but get the majority of the seats in the regional parliament.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spain vote that has traditionally sat-out Catalan elections. However, if the independence parties do get over 50% it is hard to see how Rajoy can carry on as Spanish PM as his gamble would have failed totally and he will have lost a huge amount of credibility internationally. PP will definitely lose seats - most transferred to Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the separatists get a majority, he is as stubborn as the rest of the PP. Plus on the latest national polls the PP is still ahead. It would just mean the Catalan situation is back to square 1 again, Madrid v Barcelona.
The problem with Catalonia is that the separatists can get 42-46% in the polls, but get the majority of the seats in the regional parliament.
Maybe but it still does not mean Madrid will listen to them either way
Surely it leads in the minds of those obsessed with such subjects (see e.g. that crazy woman who is MP for Kensington) to a radically different and even more disturbing conspiracy theory?
So Leave would win a landslide if rejoining the Euro was a condition of EU reentry.
In any case Italy may be having a referendum on the Euro itself in a year or two if, as polls predict, 5* win most seats in the Italian general election in May and the EU do not make the concessions they want.
It would depend on how bothered people were. The Euro looks more popular than I imagined.
It may be that our debased notes and coins are not that popular, and may become less so when Charles is King.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another Method.
The break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spa
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the .
The separatists have a much better chance of internationalising the dispute if they get over 50% of the vote. And internationalise is what they must do.
They may well try to but Spain has the armed forces and the civil guard, Catalonia just its own police force.
May will of course also still back Madrid, she does not want to give Edinburgh any future ideas. As will Trudeau, for the same reason in relation to Quebec City. Merkel and Macron and Trump will also likely still back Rajoy and as long as he has those 5 G7 leaders on board he does not really need to worry about what other world leaders think.
It becomes much harder to back the status quo when the status quo loses majority support. It will not happen overnight, but with over 50% of the popular vote the separatists get a narrative they have never had before and that will be noticed internationally - if not acted on immediately. The goal, of course, is a referendum - not immediate separation (despite the ridiculous UDI stunt). Anyway, we shall see. If they do not get 50% plus, it is all academic.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another interesting aspect is that the undecideds are still running pretty high - FWIW I think the result will end up being more decisive than what the opinion polls are showing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Puigdemont's List topping the poll - currently 10/1 on Betfair - and the PP ending up below the 5% level at which they get seats under the D'Hondt Method.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
I would Ciutadans - and could well fall below the threshold.
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the separatists get a majority, he is as stubborn as the rest of the PP. Plus on the latest national polls the PP is still ahead. It would just mean the Catalan situation is back to square 1 again, Madrid v Barcelona.
The problem with Catalonia is that the separatists can get 42-46% in the polls, but get the majority of the seats in the regional parliament.
I'd say anything less than 45% and they are pretty much guaranteed to lose their Parliamentary majority. That is the gamble Rajoy has taken.
Have ordered an extra-large pizza with double pineapple topping.
Seriously, does nobody at Disney ever have a new fecking idea? Nothing radical or surprising that they could spring on us? Nothing at all?
Inclined to agree. They're just dragging out the franchise with very thin and incredibly long storylines.
I thought 'The Last Jedi' was the best Star Wars film since 'The Empire Strikes Back' having seen it on Monday but if you go to a Star Wars film you get a Star Wars storyline, no surprise there.
There are a number of other non-franchise films on over the Holiday season or just after like 'The Greatest Showman' or 'All The Money in the World' both of which look interesting if you want something different.
In other Bill Cash-inspired marine news, some may be pleased to note that our true-born English dolphins shouldn't be as affected by Brexit as previously thought.
So Leave would win a landslide if rejoining the Euro was a condition of EU reentry.
In any case Italy may be having a referendum on the Euro itself in a year or two if, as polls predict, 5* win most seats in the Italian general election in May and the EU do not make the concessions they want.
It would depend on how bothered people were. The Euro looks more popular than I imagined.
It may be that our debased notes and coins are not that popular, and may become less so when Charles is King.
67% for sterling is a landslide margin on any definition, though it is interesting I agree that both the Czechs and Swedes are even more anti Euro than we are suggesting that longer term we may be sensible to rejoin an enlarged EFTA with the Scandinavian and Eastern European nations and leave the EU largely to the Eurozone nations.
A new film is trailed. Everyone gets very excited. Geeks endlessly analyse it for clues.
The new film release date is announced. TV adverts are overwhelmed with Star Wars merchandising tie-ins. A&E is overwhelmed with hyperventiliating fanboys.
The new film comes out. The ultra-dedicated attend midnight releases. Children are dressed as Ewoks. Gay men are dressed as Princess Leia.
It comes out to rave reviews in all the newspapers. The public pour through the ticket halls to see this phenomenon.
Everyone who actually sees it then decides it's a huge disappointment, that the franchise is waning and hopes that the next one will be a return to form.
Pretty much in line with all the other polls there have been except unlike most of the others this shows a slight rise in support for the separatists, though still less than 50%. In general, polls have shown the separatist vote share falling slightly.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
Another Method.
The break.
I would be genuinely surprised if the separatists get over 50%, but I would not rule it out. I have always thought that a higher than usual turnout would favour the constitutional parties as it is the pro-Spa
Rajoy of course won't resign even if the .
The separatists have a much better chance of internationalising the dispute if they get over 50% of the vote. And internationalise is what they must do.
They may well try to but Spain has the armed forces and the civil guard, Catalonia just its own police force.
May will of course also still back Madrid, she does not want to give Edinburgh any future ideas. As will Trudeau, for the same reason in relation to Quebec City. Merkel and Macron and Trump will also likely still back Rajoy and as long as he has those 5 G7 leaders on board he does not really need to worry about what other world leaders think.
It becomes much harder to back the status quo when the status quo loses majority support. It will not happen overnight, but with over 50% of the popular vote the separatists get a narrative they have never had before and that will be noticed internationally - if not acted on immediately. The goal, of course, is a referendum - not immediate separation (despite the ridiculous UDI stunt). Anyway, we shall see. If they do not get 50% plus, it is all academic.
If they get over 50% they will certainly hold another referendum with or without Madrid's support, though how Madrid reacts will be key, I can't see Rajoy doing anything but ban it as he did the last one. Though if he were sensible he would accept it and offer more autonomy if it was No vote.
Comments
Shame the table is no longer updated:
On present trends will have signed up for the Euro within a decade.
David H is right: there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that Theresa May will be leader at the next GE, except in the very limited circumstances where the government falls suddenly and unexpectedly in the next year or so and there's no time to change leader.
The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that she will retire with grace having successfully taken the UK out of the EU. There will be much praise for her, some of it even deserved, and everyone will be civil about it. But then, as Churchill observed, it costs nothing to be civil to someone you are about to hang.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/943399041865584641
In which case, we're never rejoining.
You just wait and see the press swing behind her after we Brexit. You reckon MP's will try swimming against that tide? Good luck.
I'm not saying she's brilliant. I'm not saying she's a great campaigner. She just happens to be the Conservative I'd most want to steer us through these turbulent times. I'm far from alone.
One straw in the wind is that there have been increasing attacks from the separatist side about vote rigging and intimidation, Does this indicate that they think they may fail to prevail and that they are getting their excuses in early? We'll see.
For what it's worth I think that the separatist bloc will get a majority of the seats but less than 50% of the vote and that we are heading for a stalemate in the stand-off. The quickest way to a solution is a change of government in Madrid.
If a third of the electorate really wants the single currency, it's surprising the Lib Dems aren't doing better.
He was sworn in on Jan 20th 2017.. so surely "completing his first term" would mean him exiting in 2021 or later.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of that yellow line between the chance of him lasting 3-4 years and at least a whole term.
This is the madness of the Brexiteers – by refusing to find compromise and allowing their groundless obsession over freedom of movement block any chance of a sensible deal, they are inviting Remainers to push back and adopt a more fundamentalist position (in this case Euro entry).
It is now clear that the Right have co-opted Brexit to turn the UK into a more closed, socially conservative place that the successful, outward looking parts of the country strongly oppose.
It is unlikely that much good will come of it.
Nor me. But I would rue out the witless Theresa May ever fighting another GE. She is utterly hopeless in that regard.
The Brexit Right's obsession with blocking freedom of movement is killing any chance of getting a decent deal. And there is no majority in the country for it.
The National have another poll coming out later based on todays data, which might show how the undecideds are starting to break.
Have ordered an extra-large pizza with double pineapple topping.
Seriously, does nobody at Disney ever have a new fecking idea? Nothing radical or surprising that they could spring on us? Nothing at all?
https://news.sky.com/story/swede-held-at-stansted-for-possessing-terror-material-11178710
Polling in Catalonia is very difficult as even the language in which polls are conducted will make a difference to who responds and the Unionist vote is very concentrated in and around Barcelona.
To me as the complete outsider who knows SFA about Spanish politics I would say he was more or less completely discredited after that bungling of the referendum. Domestically I'm not going to venture an opinion as I don't know enough.
In any case Italy may be having a referendum on the Euro itself in a year or two if, as polls predict, 5* win most seats in the Italian general election in May and the EU do not make the concessions they want.
Unlikely compliment from Mr Cash.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943496536914386946
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943496813797134337
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943496108071968768
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943495832485101569
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943495564909580290
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943495226009837568
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943494848161644546
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943494548172496901
Big corporations aren't exactly known for risk-taking :-)
But I have to say I would be upset if heads of government were privately using language like 'imbecile' about Rajoy. That would be grossly unfair and defamatory and should be stopped out of respect for the rights of imbeciles.
Karl Anderson, 29, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to racially aggravated common assault after an unprovoked attack on Sterling outside City’s training ground on Saturday morning that was first revealed by Telegraph Sport.
Manchester and Salford Magistrates’ Court heard how Anderson, who already had 25 convictions for 37 offences, including football related violence, told Sterling: “I hope your mother and child wake up dead in the morning you n-----” before kicking the player in the legs four times and leaving him with a sore left hamstring.
Anderson, of Woodward Street in Ancoats, Manchester, had been issued with a five-year banning order in January for his part in clashes with Sheffield United fans in the Shamrock pub in Bengal Street, Ancoats, following a FA Cup third round tie between the Yorkshire club and Manchester United at Old Trafford 12 months earlier.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/12/20/man-utd-fan-jailed-unprovoked-racist-attack-raheem-sterling/
May will of course also still back Madrid, she does not want to give Edinburgh any future ideas. As will Trudeau, for the same reason in relation to Quebec City. Merkel and Macron and Trump will also likely still back Rajoy and as long as he has those 5 G7 leaders on board he does not really need to worry about what other world leaders think.
But is he in tuna with the electorate?
Please avoid hints/spoilers for the latest Star Wars film.
Some of us haven't seen it yet.
I'm posting a huge Star Wars spoiler.
It may be that our debased notes and coins are not that popular, and may become less so when Charles is King.
I know it's crap but it's the best I could come up with.
If the Duke of Edinburgh can order the death of the Princess of Wales, he can do something as simple as a photoshop.
Evil Empire/whatever.
The Force.
Big plot twist.
-fin-
There are a number of other non-franchise films on over the Holiday season or just after like 'The Greatest Showman' or 'All The Money in the World' both of which look interesting if you want something different.
How come there are people who haven't watched it once yet?
Oh I know. Basically every SW film is a very long chase scene with some big set pieces and wooden dialogue.
But still...
http://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-dolphins-first-native-english-951245
A new film is trailed. Everyone gets very excited. Geeks endlessly analyse it for clues.
The new film release date is announced. TV adverts are overwhelmed with Star Wars merchandising tie-ins. A&E is overwhelmed with hyperventiliating fanboys.
The new film comes out. The ultra-dedicated attend midnight releases. Children are dressed as Ewoks. Gay men are dressed as Princess Leia.
It comes out to rave reviews in all the newspapers. The public pour through the ticket halls to see this phenomenon.
Everyone who actually sees it then decides it's a huge disappointment, that the franchise is waning and hopes that the next one will be a return to form.
It's not like it's Doctor Who.