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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What now for Damian Green?

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  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    stodge said:

    TonyE said:

    calum said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good opportunity to test the public interest disclosure defence
    They've done this all wrong - the criminal act here is the theft of Police property, the notebooks and evidence that should have been retained for destruction by the Met.
    The Met (and indeed all public bodies) should retain and maintain Retention Schedules covering all records. It may be the notebooks are retained but they should be held in an appropriate environment (secure off-site storage).

    There was a court order requiring destruction of material obtained in the raid. If the police notebook - or part of it - was covered by that order, then the police were in breach of a court order, which is very serious indeed.

    Second, there is the fact that police material - including notebooks - do not belong to individual policemen to be taken by them when they leave the service. Another breach of police rules right there.

    Thirdly, there is the use made of the notebook by the policeman and the use made by him and his superiors of information (not necessarily contained in the notebook) obtained by them in the course of their public duties, which is confidential. They owe a duty of confidentiality to their employers which generally lasts after their departure.

    There are a number of matters here which require proper investigation. Whether we will get it is another question.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see so little comment on the local Government settlement for 2018-19. Public sector borrowing looks to be coming in at around £50 billion for the year but it looks like yet another tough year for councils.

    Sajid Javid has now allowed Councils to raise Council Tax by as much as 5.99% which will be nearly but not quite twice the rate of inflation. It will be interesting to see if this gains more attention as the budgets are set in January and February.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/george_osborne/status/943821265617522689

    Implying the government will collapse over this? Hmmm
    The endurance of Mrs May seems to be a source of great annoyance to former politician George.

    Would bring tears* from a glass eye.

    Of laughter.

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    Official turnout in the Catalan vote at 1.00 pm was very slightly down on the 2015 figure. However, that election was held on a Sunday. It could be we see a post-work surge as we do in the UK. However, polling stations close earlier there than here. All the opinion polls have been predicting a record turnout. If they are wrong about that, they could well be wrong about everything else, too.

    Yikes. Our Spanish TV aerial is broken so I've missed quite a lot of news in the past few days. I'd be very surprised to see a lower turnout overall though the Spanish are not used to voting on a weekday and there are a lot of Xmas distractions also right now. Which side these affect most is difficult to say. Arguably the urban vote should be easier to get out on a weekday.
    The big Xmas celebration day for the Spanish is of course in early January, so it's not quite as near to the festive season there as here.
    Oh of course but shopping is still pretty big at this time of the year. For most Navidad still means prezzies and fiestas.....and lots of other distractions ... a lot head south and to the coasts for the milder weather.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised not to see a discussion on the incident in Melbourne. Seems like terrorism to me.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The plaudits are coming in thick and fast for Jezza Hunt after his interview today. I think he will soon become the Tories' new golden boy. Where does this leave the other leadership hopefuls, now put in the shade by Hunt's mastery? They need to to reclaim the agenda. DD should threaten to resign (again); Boris has to write another article slagging off Theresa's approach to Brexit.

    Given Hunt was 8th in the last Conservative Home Tory members leadership poll, behind Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis, Raab, Rudd and Stewart, he has a long way to go to be even in the top tier to succeed May, let alone be favourite
    Conhome polls mean absolutely diddly squat outside of an actual contest.
    They show who Tory members are likely to favour and given it is members who make the final decision between the final 2 chosen by MPs that is important
    No it doesn't at all since the members views will change dramatically by events in the contest itself let alone its build up, plus once the 2 are known. How high was Cameron scoring in 2004, 12 months before he was elected leader by a massive majority?
    Cameron was well ahead in the Con Home 2005 Tory leadership poll. As far as I recall there was no 2004 poll as the website was only founded about that time
    No he wasn't, not before the contest. Before the contest David Davis was leading Conhome polls. Only during the contest did Cameron take the lead. Again demonstrating that pre-contest polls are utterly meaningless.
    Cameron was already emerging in those polls as Davis' spise him
    The contest didn't begin at Conference. Cameron didn't poll very well with either the public or ConHome before he was a candidate and the contest, he was relatively unknown until then. Please find even a single poll prior to the contest being triggered (6th May 2005 was when Howard announced he was to stand down) that had Cameron either in the lead or in second place.

    You're categorically wrong.
    Yougov from June 2005
    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=4&year=2005&month=&category=

    Cameron was already the second most popular candidate with Tory members after Davis and the third most popular with Tory voters after Davis and Clarke
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MaxPB said:

    Wooooo! Last day of work until the 2nd of Jan. Just an hour left and I'm checking out for the year. It's been a long one, that's for sure.

    Naah, it was shorter than average.*

    *Mean. Bang on the mode. Not sure if there even is a median, and if so what it is.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    TonyE said:

    calum said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good opportunity to test the public interest disclosure defence
    They've done this all wrong - the criminal act here is the theft of Police property, the notebooks and evidence that should have been retained for destruction by the Met.
    The Met (and indeed all public bodies) should retain and maintain Retention Schedules covering all records. It may be the notebooks are retained but they should be held in an appropriate environment (secure off-site storage).

    There was a court order requiring destruction of material obtained in the raid. If the police notebook - or part of it - was covered by that order, then the police were in breach of a court order, which is very serious indeed.

    Second, there is the fact that police material - including notebooks - do not belong to individual policemen to be taken by them when they leave the service. Another breach of police rules right there.

    Thirdly, there is the use made of the notebook by the policeman and the use made by him and his superiors of information (not necessarily contained in the notebook) obtained by them in the course of their public duties, which is confidential. They owe a duty of confidentiality to their employers which generally lasts after their departure.

    There are a number of matters here which require proper investigation. Whether we will get it is another question.
    It sounds as if the police could use some advice on ethics and regulatory compliance...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    edited December 2017
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see so little comment on the local Government settlement for 2018-19. Public sector borrowing looks to be coming in at around £50 billion for the year but it looks like yet another tough year for councils.

    Sajid Javid has now allowed Councils to raise Council Tax by as much as 5.99% which will be nearly but not quite twice the rate of inflation. It will be interesting to see if this gains more attention as the budgets are set* in January and February.

    *proposed in January and set in late Feb or very early March.

    I expect many councils will go to or close to the max, given the pressure they are under. The government is releasing the squeeze on their tax at just the point that the squeeze on living standards is most acute.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    With services the issues are to do with authorisation, certification and regulation. Firstly are you allowed to provide services as a foreign entity? Are you certified to do so? The killer here is the supplier questionnaire: Are you certified under regulation ABC? If you are not, chances are either the client goes somewhere else or you move to the territory and operate under that territory's rules. How are you meeting regulations? What official checks are being made? What's the recourse if you are not?

    The EU gets to decide all these for its territory. It can authorise, certify and regulate entities from third countries. It needs a special reason to do so.
    The overwhelming point is that the EU doesn't regulate banking quite as directly as many think. Retail banking regulation is the remit of the Nation States. Art 63 TFEU restricts the ability of Nations to prevent movement of capital. EU nationals, likewise, cannot be prevented from buying financial instruments in the UK.

    Lastly, most retail financial services are created by UK firms but sold via nation state based brokers - all of whom then act as the point at which certification is assured. So the passport isn't a total brake on services - and there is no single market in services because the larger nation states don't want it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    HYUFD said:

    Surprised not to see a discussion on the incident in Melbourne. Seems like terrorism to me.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The plaudits are coming in thick and fast for Jezza Hunt after his interview today. I think he will soon become the Tories' new golden boy. Where does this leave the other leadership hopefuls, now put in the shade by Hunt's mastery? They need to to reclaim the agenda. DD should threaten to resign (again); Boris has to write another article slagging off Theresa's approach to Brexit.

    Given Hunt was 8th in the last Conservative Home Tory members leadership poll, behind Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis, Raab, Rudd and Stewart, he has a long way to go to be even in the top tier to succeed May, let alone be favourite
    Conhome polls mean absolutely diddly squat outside of an actual contest.
    They show who Tory members are likely to favour and given it is members who make the final decision between the final 2 chosen by MPs that is important
    No it doesn't at all since the members views will change dramatically by events in the contest itself let alone its build up, plus once the 2 are known. How high was Cameron scoring in 2004, 12 months before he was elected leader by a massive majority?
    Cameron was well ahead in the Con Home 2005 Tory leadership poll. As far as I recall there was no 2004 poll as the website was only founded about that time
    In their 2016 poll Gove was top followed by Johnson, so their recent record as a bellwether isn't great.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The plaudits are coming in thick and fast for Jezza Hunt after his interview today. I think he will soon become the Tories' new golden boy. Where does this leave the other leadership hopefuls, now put in the shade by Hunt's mastery? They need to to reclaim the agenda. DD should threaten to resign (again); Boris has to write another article slagging off Theresa's approach to Brexit.

    Given Hunt was 8th in the last Conservative Home Tory members leadership poll, behind Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis, Raab, Rudd and Stewart, he has a long way to go to be even in the top tier to succeed May, let alone be favourite
    Conhome polls mean absolutely diddly squat outside of an actual contest.
    and he is forgetting that the MPs get to pick the two that the members choose from. The order of preference of a long list of candidates amongst members - even if ConHome were representative, which it clearly isn't (just go read the comments sections!) - is pretty much irrelevant as to who the MPs might elect.
    Con Home got the 2005 Tory leadership contest ( the last contest which went to the membership) spot on.

    Given the final 2 are highly likely to come from those 8 the members polling cannot be ignored
    If there were two front runners, for sure. With a long list of candidates each with low levels of support, the MPs choice will be pretty much independent of the preferences of ConHome readers.
    The next Tory leader is highly likely to come from the 10 put before Con Home readers of whom the top 5 were all Leavers, Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis and Raab. Confirming a Leaver is highly likely to succeed May
    What odds would you offer on a Leaver vs. Remainer?
    Counting Hunt as a Remainer & ignoring any side switching post vote.
    Winnings to charity of winners’ choice.
    2/1 as the final two for £10
    Sorry I think my post was unclear.
    What odds will you offer me that he next Tory leader is a Remainer?
    Counting Hunt as Remain since he was at time of election...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
    If we don't need a deal that includes services, then surely no problem.

    I am not siding with the EU, merely pointing out that they hold all the cards. Their negotiators seem ferociously well prepared compared with the amateurs on our side of the table.

    Trade in goods tariff free suits me, as I quite like continental design and quality.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
    If we don't need a deal that includes services, then surely no problem.

    I am not siding with the EU, merely pointing out that they hold all the cards. Their negotiators seem ferociously well prepared compared with the amateurs on our side of the table.

    Trade in goods tariff free suits me, as I quite like continental design and quality.
    Cross border trade in services is notoriously difficult to manage. There is nothing stopping me going on the internet and getting some Indian person to do a bit of coding for me and then send me back the finished article. There is no trade deal between India and Switzerland that governs services trade, and yet I am free to import computing services, should I wish to do so.

    As I said, there are no practical steps the EU could take to block UK companies from providing services within their market.

    It's coming to the point where it's no longer worth discussing anything with you. Even the most seasoned EUphiles I know were surprised as to how much the EU gave up in the initial deal and that the government won their fight on "exit fees". You are the only person, along with williamglenn, who believes that the EU holds all the cards. The EU certainly doesn't believe that, the last thing they want is a new low regulation competitor sitting just off their border, which is why they are so desperate to try and keep the UK within their regulatory zone.
  • Options
    OP is wrong. The big question is not about Damien Green but Theresa May. Who will replace Green as Secretary of State for being Theresa's best mate after Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill were cast into outer darkness?
  • Options
    More on Catalonia turnout. It’s up in Barcelona, down in Girona. If that sustains it’s probably good news for the unionist parties as Barcelona is where they are strongest. Girona is the heartland of the independence movement.
  • Options
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wooooo! Last day of work until the 2nd of Jan. Just an hour left and I'm checking out for the year. It's been a long one, that's for sure.

    Naah, it was shorter than average.*

    *Mean. Bang on the mode. Not sure if there even is a median, and if so what it is.
    The median will depend on leap seconds and, in turn, depends on your time-frame (there've been enough of them since 1972 to make the median 365 days, 1 second - 27 leap seconds added over the last 45 years).
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised not to see a discussion on the incident in Melbourne. Seems like terrorism to me.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The plaudits are coming in thick and fast for Jezza Hunt after his interview today. I think he will soon become the Tories' new golden boy. Where does this leave the other leadership hopefuls, now put in the shade by Hunt's mastery? They need to to reclaim the agenda. DD should threaten to resign (again); Boris has to write another article slagging off Theresa's approach to Brexit.

    Given Hunt was 8th in the last Conservative Home Tory members leadership poll, behind Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis, Raab, Rudd and Stewart, he has a long way to go to be even in the top tier to succeed May, let alone be favourite
    Conhome polls mean absolutely diddly squat outside of an actual contest.
    They show who Tory members are likely to favour and given it is members who make the final decision between the final 2 chosen by MPs that is important
    No it doesn't at all since the members views will change dramatically by events in the contest itself let alone its build up, plus once the 2 are known. How high was Cameron scoring in 2004, 12 months before he was elected leader by a massive majority?
    Cameron was well ahead in the Con Home 2005 Tory leadership poll. As far as I recall there was no 2004 poll as the website was only founded about that time
    No he wasn't, not before the contest. Before the contest David Davis was leading Conhome polls. Only during the contest did Cameron take the lead. Again demonstrating that pre-contest polls are utterly meaningless.
    Cameron was already emerging in those polls as Davis' spise him
    The contest didn't begin at Conference. Cameron didn't poll very well with either the public or ConHome before he was a candidate and the contest, he was relatively unknown until then. Please find even a single poll prior to the contest being triggered (6th May 2005 was when Howard announced he was to stand down) that had Cameron either in the lead or in second place.

    You're categorically wrong.
    Yougov from June 2005
    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=4&year=2005&month=&category=

    Cameron was already the second most popular candidate with Tory members after Davis and the third most popular with Tory voters after Davis and Clarke
    So, presumably in HYUFD world May comes after June
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited December 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    TonyE said:

    calum said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good opportunity to test the public interest disclosure defence
    They've done this all wrong - the criminal act here is the theft of Police property, the notebooks and evidence that should have been retained for destruction by the Met.
    The Met (and indeed all public bodies) should retain and maintain Retention Schedules covering all records. It may be the notebooks are retained but they should be held in an appropriate environment (secure off-site storage).

    There was a court order requiring destruction of material obtained in the raid. If the police notebook - or part of it - was covered by that order, then the police were in breach of a court order, which is very serious indeed.

    Second, there is the fact that police material - including notebooks - do not belong to individual policemen to be taken by them when they leave the service. Another breach of police rules right there.

    Thirdly, there is the use made of the notebook by the policeman and the use made by him and his superiors of information (not necessarily contained in the notebook) obtained by them in the course of their public duties, which is confidential. They owe a duty of confidentiality to their employers which generally lasts after their departure.

    There are a number of matters here which require proper investigation. Whether we will get it is another question.
    I would be surprised if a court order required an individual police officers pocket book be destroyed.These are issued logged by supervision and signed for by the Officer .Once completed they would be stored.After an officer leaves the service they are usually kept for seven years before destruction.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbcsoutheast: Samuel Armstrong is acquitted after telling jury the sex he had with a woman in Craig Mackinlay MP’s office was consensual, not rape. He and the woman had been drinking together in the Houses of Parliament.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited December 2017
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
    If we don't need a deal that includes services, then surely no problem.

    I am not siding with the EU, merely pointing out that they hold all the cards. Their negotiators seem ferociously well prepared compared with the amateurs on our side of the table.

    Trade in goods tariff free suits me, as I quite like continental design and quality.
    Cross border trade in services is notoriously difficult to manage. There is nothing stopping me going on the internet and getting some Indian person to do a bit of coding for me and then send me back the finished article. There is no trade deal between India and Switzerland that governs services trade, and yet I am free to import computing services, should I wish to do so.

    As I said, there are no practical steps the EU could take to block UK companies from providing services within their market.

    It's coming to the point where it's no longer worth discussing anything with you. Even the most seasoned EUphiles I know were surprised as to how much the EU gave up in the initial deal and that the government won their fight on "exit fees". You are the only person, along with williamglenn, who believes that the EU holds all the cards. The EU certainly doesn't believe that, the last thing they want is a new low regulation competitor sitting just off their border, which is why they are so desperate to try and keep the UK within their regulatory zone.
    +1

    I wonder who, other than Fox and presumably WG, actually reads The New European....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    TonyE said:

    calum said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good opportunity to test the public interest disclosure defence
    They've done this all wrong - the criminal act here is the theft of Police property, the notebooks and evidence that should have been retained for destruction by the Met.
    The Met (and indeed all public bodies) should retain and maintain Retention Schedules covering all records. It may be the notebooks are retained but they should be held in an appropriate environment (secure off-site storage).

    There was a court order requiring destruction of material obtained in the raid. If the police notebook - or part of it - was covered by that order, then the police were in breach of a court order, which is very serious indeed.

    Second, there is the fact that police material - including notebooks - do not belong to individual policemen to be taken by them when they leave the service. Another breach of police rules right there.

    Thirdly, there is the use made of the notebook by the policeman and the use made by him and his superiors of information (not necessarily contained in the notebook) obtained by them in the course of their public duties, which is confidential. They owe a duty of confidentiality to their employers which generally lasts after their departure.

    There are a number of matters here which require proper investigation. Whether we will get it is another question.
    I would be surprised if a court order required an individual police officers pocket book be destroyed.These are issued logged by supervision and signed for by the Officer .Once completed they would be stored.After an officer leaves the service they are usually kept for seven years before destruction.
    I believe the police ordered all information/evidence relating to the raid of his parliamentary offices be destroyed.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
    At the moment, of course, Dr F can, if he wishes. And have colleagues come here to work, or to conferences. After March 2019 that may not always be the case.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    EU prepares Canada-style Brexit deal for UK https://t.co/UpmIob6FQF

    Presumably worse case scenario now Canada style FTA and not WTO? (Provided Tory hard liners don't kick off again)

    I am sure that a deal on manufactured goods, agriculture and fisheries, minus services would suit them rather well.

    The Unicorn Slaughter in the spring sounds a little bit Valdemort.
    Please explain what tariffs or practical block the EU could put on UK companies providing services within the EU.
    The obvious one is pssporting, but NTBs in services are plentiful.
    They would have to actively put up new NTBs against all non-MFNs in order to keep UK companies out of their market, assuming no deal. Don't forget that the UK and EU will be starting from an almost identical regulatory position. The BoE seem confident that passport rights won't be an issue, and looking at how it works for Swiss banks, they are probably right.

    As always, you're desperate to side with the EU, wouldn't it make sense to just move there, given how much you seem to love it?
    At the moment, of course, Dr F can, if he wishes. And have colleagues come here to work, or to conferences. After March 2019 that may not always be the case.
    Suspect he'd have no trouble getting a visa/work permit after 2019, if he so wished. ;)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    New thread!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: The Polish translator just called Theresa May "Madame Brexit." Even made the PM giggle.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    HYUFD said:

    Surprised not to see a discussion on the incident in Melbourne. Seems like terrorism to me.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The plaudits are coming in thick and fast for Jezza Hunt after his interview today. I think he will soon become the Tories' new golden boy. Where does this leave the other leadership hopefuls, now put in the shade by Hunt's mastery? They need to to reclaim the agenda. DD should threaten to resign (again); Boris has to write another article slagging off Theresa's approach to Brexit.

    Given Hunt was 8th in the last Conservative Home Tory members leadership poll, behind Mogg, Gove, Boris, Davis, Raab, Rudd and Stewart, he has a long way to go to be even in the top tier to succeed May, let alone be favourite
    Conhome polls mean absolutely diddly squat outside of an actual contest.
    They show who Tory members are likely to favour and given it is members who make the final decision between the final 2 chosen by MPs that is important
    No it doesn't at all since the members views will change dramatically by events in the contest itself let alone its build up, plus once the 2 are known. How high was Cameron scoring in 2004, 12 months before he was elected leader by a massive majority?
    Cameron was well ahead in the Con Home 2005 Tory leadership poll. As far as I recall there was no 2004 poll as the website was only founded about that time
    In their 2016 poll Gove was top followed by Johnson, so their recent record as a bellwether isn't great.
    May was ahead in 2016, plus the contest never went to the membership
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