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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

I broke my habit of recent years last year and didn’t make any predictions for the coming year (I had no time at the end of last year).  That was fortunate because I would have got almost everything wrong.  However, it is a good discipline to make these predictions if only so that I can identify what I thought was going on and think about why I was wrong (or right) later on.  That way I might actually get better.

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Comments

  • Forget all that nonsense, what I want to know is if the hans solo movie is going to be good like rogue one or a steaming pile of poo like the last Jedi!
  • No arguments about brexit among the urquhart family. Everybody has moved on to important issues like if die hard is the best Christmas movie...
  • Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,584
    Those predictions look pretty sound, but few predictions survive contact with reality these days...
  • Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/

    See, only the alt-right and conspiracy loons hate The Last Jedi.

    Do you really want to be in that crowd?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,908
    edited December 2017

    Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/

    See, only the alt-right and conspiracy loons hate The Last Jedi.

    Do you really want to be in that crowd?
    I don’t hate it for any of those reasons though....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978
    edited December 2017
    An interesting header, as always, thanks.

    'If the government wants to start converting Remain supporters in numbers it is going to need to show that it can include their values in its vision of Brexit. ' - I'm not sure anything will hugely move the dial on this except Brexit itself. I don't see that it will change until we've left.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,584
    edited December 2017
    There's a poll on Labour supporters' view of the party stance on Brexit which is relevant, though it's commissioned by the Remain camp and suitably spun with some important details missing:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/27/labour-voters-could-abandon-party-over-brexit-stance-poll-finds

    What one can make out is that the core Labour vote is about 30% (as a quarter of Labour voters "might" change their minds, and at present most think the party is aligned with them and some would be upset if it proved otherwise. It's not clear how many want an immediate policy switch, or if they actually care enough to change their votes - some clearly would, but in general I think voters accept that it's difficult to take a firm stance on a moving target.

    Incidentally, while I agree with Alastair that a deal will be done, I'm sure there will be moments in 2018 when it will appear otherwise. That's how EU negotiations work. DYOR, but punters may want to bet accordingly.
  • Forget all that nonsense, what I want to know is if the hans solo movie is going to be good like rogue one or a steaming pile of poo like the last Jedi!

    "Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster by your side, kid!"
  • Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/

    Since when was Princess Leia a lesbian?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/

    See, only the alt-right and conspiracy loons hate The Last Jedi.

    Do you really want to be in that crowd?
    I don't know how that man manages to work up such hatred (or the appearance of it) so much. Of all the reasons to go after the second best Star Wars film, that's what's eating him about it?

    Forget all that nonsense, what I want to know is if the hans solo movie is going to be good like rogue one or a steaming pile of poo like the last Jedi!

    While some such as yourself have taken a deep dislike to The Last Jedi (you monster!), and plenty had issue with The Force Awakens and Rogue One, I have a feeling the Solo movie will be the first of the new batch to be unambiguously bad. It's one of those characters people just take way too bloody seriously (even more than taking any part of Star Wars seriously), and they are due one which most critics do not adore.
  • No arguments about brexit among the urquhart family. Everybody has moved on to important issues like if die hard is the best Christmas movie...

    https://www.empireonline.com/movies/features/empire-30-best-christmas-movies/
  • If your economic prediction holds up then the rest will probably fall into line behind that. There is a possibility of some kind of global financial crisis which we would not be in very good shape to work our way through
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    On topic, I think the headline predictions seem pretty sound. Tories are unstable and Brexit is complicated and fraught, so ministers to go in the quagmire seems reasonable, and that most people on both sides want a deal means one will probably come. There's no reason for the leaders to change, for different reasons, so the only one that might not be the case is Labour and Tories remaining roughly neck and neck. I cannot see the Tories pulling ahead in what will probably be a difficult year, so it is a question of if enough bad news will occur - economy downturn, tory revolt over brexit etc - to give Labour a significant lead or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    I feel like they are burying the more interesting comment - why would he not say he is there for the long haul and the Tories unstable after all? - in that it says 'Second EU Referendum demand dismissed'.

    Whose demand? Is he dismissing it or the party? A lot of hypothetical scenarios rely on him changing tune on that score.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    Alex Jones says the new Star Wars is ‘total SJW’ and Princess Leia is a lesbian

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/12/27/alex-jones-says-the-new-star-wars-is-total-sjw-and-princess-leia-is-a-lesbian/amp/

    Since when was Princess Leia a lesbian?
    However, despite feeling informed enough to make such claims, Jones then admits that he hasn’t in fact seen the film yet

    He's a very professional troll after all.

    It's the sort of thing that would be funny if plenty didn't really believe it (whether he does or not I have no idea).
  • Alistair Meeks writes a post without saying Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, without describing the majority of his countrymen as racists, bigots and xenophobes and without saying all his mates of EU origin are terrified of being sent home. Is Project Fear all over?

    Happy New Year everyone.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 124
    Saw an interview with Chris Skidmore on BBC Parliament.
    He came across quite well reminiscent of fellow historian Tristam Hunt.Checked his odds on betfair exchange for next tory leader and it was a 1000/1!
    Took that out before someone else could and before I could find out if I am unaware of something stigmatic about him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    Metatron said:

    Saw an interview with Chris Skidmore on BBC Parliament.
    He came across quite well reminiscent of fellow historian Tristam Hunt.Checked his odds on betfair exchange for next tory leader and it was a 1000/1!
    Took that out before someone else could and before I could find out if I am unaware of something stigmatic about him.

    I'm amazed someone with such a low perceived chance and profile even had any odds listed!
  • And the green machine already won the first set against the throw in the darts...
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    There is nothing bold in any of those predictions. You may as well predict that in August you expect the weather to be warmer than in January.
    1). There will be a Brexit deal. Of course there will. The EU will get what it wants. Doesnt it always. It is after all a very powerful Mafiosi, able to destroy economies if it does not. I think there will be some concessions on freedom of movement however.

    2). Of course the party leaders will stay the same if illness or death doesnt decree otherwise. Theresa May will be prime minister, and Corbyn is a fanatic who loves the adulation and the songs and the Corbyn colouring books and tee shirts.

    3). There will probably more cabinet departures. Probably. If you look back at British political history, there are very few years under any government when there are not cabinet departures. There was at least one for nearly every one of the Thatcher and Blair years. Why would Theresa May's government be any different.

    I would be bold however, and suggest that there will be some rising cabinet stars tipped for the top job when May goes.

    4) Labour and the Tories will remain neck and neck in the polls. Probably. But the fact remains that oppositions should be streets ahead. No opposition has ever won a general election without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. That rule has never been broken.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 614
    edited December 2017
    I concur with most most of the predictions. However, I think that external forces will push politics in completely unforeseen directions. I think Trump / North Korea / China / Russia and Iran could all be jokers in the pack.

    An interesting domestic prediction is Boris 'Bonking' Johnson gets caught by a Russian honey-trap and is filmed/ taped or photographed in the throws of passion and is forced to resign.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,809
    edited December 2017
    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    I have been fortunate enough to watch two excellent movies today: Darkest Hour ("What just happened?" "He mobilised the English language. And sent it into battle....") and Three Billboards in Ebbing, Missouri.

    I suspect both will get awards heaped upon them.
  • Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151

    Those predictions look pretty sound, but few predictions survive contact with reality these days...

    I think it is safer to predict that there will be a big surprise in 2018.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    I have been fortunate enough to watch two excellent movies today: Darkest Hour ("What just happened?" "He mobilised the English language. And sent it into battle....") .

    Not seen it yet, although it is pretty ridiculous Gary Oldman does not have an Oscar, and given the subject matter is the sort of thing awards ceremonies love, any possibility he's in with a chance from the performance?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,168

    Forget all that nonsense, what I want to know is if the hans solo movie is going to be good like rogue one or a steaming pile of poo like the last Jedi!

    I'm interested why one should be hated and the other loved - or vice versa.
    Both seemed OK-ish to me; moderately entertaining, but not remarkable. Neither seemed to offer much more than the original trio of movies, which considering the intervening three and a half decades is a little disappointing.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818
    edited December 2017

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    kle4 said:

    I have been fortunate enough to watch two excellent movies today: Darkest Hour ("What just happened?" "He mobilised the English language. And sent it into battle....") .

    Not seen it yet, although it is pretty ridiculous Gary Oldman does not have an Oscar, and given the subject matter is the sort of thing awards ceremonies love, any possibility he's in with a chance from the performance?
    It will probably do better at the BAFTAs, but it is certainly worthy of an Oscar nomination for Oldman.

    Hair and Make-up too. The transformation is exceptional.
  • MVG faltering like the Tory GE campaign...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,168
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    Why the 'or' ?
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    None of those attributes will help with any leadership ambitions he might have.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Fake news.
  • Corbyn's been telling porkies.

    twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632

    FOR a supposed honest politician, he doesn’t half tell a lot of them....remember his bullshit about less poor students at uni because of fees...he was told that isn’t correct...and he carried on banging it out at his rallies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    kle4 said:

    I have been fortunate enough to watch two excellent movies today: Darkest Hour ("What just happened?" "He mobilised the English language. And sent it into battle....") .

    Not seen it yet, although it is pretty ridiculous Gary Oldman does not have an Oscar, and given the subject matter is the sort of thing awards ceremonies love, any possibility he's in with a chance from the performance?
    It will probably do better at the BAFTAs, but it is certainly worthy of an Oscar nomination for Oldman.

    Hair and Make-up too. The transformation is exceptional.
    I honestly didn't realise it was him at first the first time I saw the trailer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    None of those attributes will help with any leadership ambitions he might have.
    (a) he has said he doesn't want it
    (b) even if he did, he wouldn't win
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,078
    kle4 said:

    I feel like they are burying the more interesting comment - why would he not say he is there for the long haul and the Tories unstable after all? - in that it says 'Second EU Referendum demand dismissed'.

    Whose demand? Is he dismissing it or the party? A lot of hypothetical scenarios rely on him changing tune on that score.
    I like the 'snow brings road chaos' headline with a pic that shows what can kindly be called a dusting at best.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,078
    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?
  • Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
  • Corbyn's been telling porkies.

    twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632

    FOR a supposed honest politician, he doesn’t half tell a lot of them....remember his bullshit about less poor students at uni because of fees...he was told that isn’t correct...and he carried on banging it out at his rallies.
    I need to check those swing figures as well.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    Corbyn's been telling porkies.

    twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632

    FOR a supposed honest politician, he doesn’t half tell a lot of them....remember his bullshit about less poor students at uni because of fees...he was told that isn’t correct...and he carried on banging it out at his rallies.
    Just as he claims that Labour won the biggest swing since 1945 in 2017. It didnt. It was the biggest rise in the Labour vote since 1945 but the swing from the Tories to Labour was tiny.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    Corbyn's been telling porkies.

    twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632

    FOR a supposed honest politician, he doesn’t half tell a lot of them....remember his bullshit about less poor students at uni because of fees...he was told that isn’t correct...and he carried on banging it out at his rallies.
    I remember a certain PBer saying that PB Tories needs maths lessons during that discussion :p
  • To be fair, corbyn is as thick as mince so I doubt he even understands what he is banging on about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    stevef said:

    Corbyn's been telling porkies.

    twitter.com/leobarasi/status/946144754210885632

    FOR a supposed honest politician, he doesn’t half tell a lot of them....remember his bullshit about less poor students at uni because of fees...he was told that isn’t correct...and he carried on banging it out at his rallies.
    Just as he claims that Labour won the biggest swing since 1945 in 2017. It didnt. It was the biggest rise in the Labour vote since 1945 but the swing from the Tories to Labour was tiny.
    That I can believe was a mistake.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,417
    edited December 2017
    Evening all. I hope you all had as merry a Christmas as I did.

    On topic, Alastair has been uncharacteristically vague in his predictions. 2 is probably right. 3 is true in a literal sense ('There will be more Cabinet departures'), but is wrong in analysis; the three resignations under Theresa May haven't been caused by lack of loyalty nor by her being willing to throw ministers under buses, but by three individuals being unfortunately prone, retrospectively at least, to self-induced prostration under buses. 4 is probably right.

    The one I would really take issue with is 1. Yes, there will be a Brexit deal, unless things go badly wrong (still a significant risk). However, every indication is that the EU is gradually dissolving its red lines. Of course, any deal will be depicted by the irreconcilables and partisan opponents of the government as being on the EU's terms, but I don't think that will be the reality. We will, in all likelihood, have some modicum of having our cake and eating it, with good access to the Single Market but without freedom of movement de jure.

    Which leads me to my main prediction for 2018. I agree with Alastair both that there will with alarums, excursions and brouhahas on the Brexit negotiations, and that the UK economy will surprise to the upside*. But I go further: Theresa May's political reputation will surprise to the upside.

    " This is not investment advice, but you might like to consider the discount to NAV of British Land... Do your own research, etc etc.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,078
    I am watching the Pinstripe Bowl and one of the commentators is called Booger
  • Tim_B said:

    I am watching the Pinstripe Bowl and one of the commentators is called Booger

    THE College football system of having “bowls” rather than playoffs has to be one of the dumbest things in sport.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,642
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    What does that say about the person who appointed him?
  • Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    No they didn't. They are tenants who rent it for a set number of games each year and pay a fee for that. They share the tenancy with British Athletics. The ground is not theirs and is still used for many other events as decided by the Stadium owners and the management company they have assigned.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,647
    edited December 2017

    Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    They also host pop and rock concerts there. I saw Depeche Mode there, back in June.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,908
    edited December 2017

    Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    No they didn't. They are tenants who rent it for a set number of games each year and pay a fee for that. They share the tenancy with British Athletics. The ground is not theirs and is still used for many other events as decided by the Stadium owners and the management company they have assigned.
    I meant their tenancy is basically a give away.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/20m-bill-to-taxpayer-mayor-takes-control-of-london-stadium-a3707266.html?amp
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    None of those attributes will help with any leadership ambitions he might have.
    "The greatest teacher, failure is!"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,818
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    What does that say about the person who appointed him?
    That she is Prime Minister?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Taking money from charities to pay for it? Not a good look!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,642
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    What does that say about the person who appointed him?
    That she is Prime Minister?
    Amongst other things yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Yeah, that's probably not a good idea.
  • A lottery where you have a chance of winning the Royal Yacht Britannia is a bold idea... but how would you pay for its upkeep if you did win?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,078

    Tim_B said:

    I am watching the Pinstripe Bowl and one of the commentators is called Booger

    THE College football system of having “bowls” rather than playoffs has to be one of the dumbest things in sport.
    They do have playoffs - the semi finals are on New Years Day. Alabama Clemson and Georgia Oklahoma.
  • I would have thought they could have raised that from business sponsorship with guarantee that sponsors are always on the VIP list for events ie nudge nudge you get chance to get your money back via direct access to world leaders / royalty etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,908
    edited December 2017
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    I am watching the Pinstripe Bowl and one of the commentators is called Booger

    THE College football system of having “bowls” rather than playoffs has to be one of the dumbest things in sport.
    They do have playoffs - the semi finals are on New Years Day. Alabama Clemson and Georgia Oklahoma.
    Not proper playoffs like basketball have March madness and the recent inclusive of those semi finals are not open to all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    Why do journalists write this crap?

    Of course the PM is leading on the Brexit negotiations. Why the heck wouldn't she? Davis' job is to do a lot of the grind, but the PM will lead the major points. Barnier would naturally talk to Robbins as part of that. It's not evidence of anything.
    Because it flatly contradicts what David Davis has said in the past.
    Well, depending on what he said, Davis was mistaken, unrealistic, deliberately misleading, lying or delusional.
    What does that say about the person who appointed him?
    That she's cynical, conniving, manipulative, double-dealing, inscrutable and underestimated?

    Incidentally, Robbins has been working on the Northern Ireland deal with the EU from the beginning. If it proves to be a slow-burning stitch-up of the Brexiteers, his, and May's, fingerprints are all over it.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,078

    A lottery where you have a chance of winning the Royal Yacht Britannia is a bold idea... but how would you pay for its upkeep if you did win?

    Yachty McRoyal face?
  • RobD said:

    Taking money from charities to pay for it? Not a good look!
    Ya think?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    Tim_B said:

    A lottery where you have a chance of winning the Royal Yacht Britannia is a bold idea... but how would you pay for its upkeep if you did win?

    Yachty McRoyal face?
    Like a national version of Bullseye? "Here's what you could have won..."
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294

    Evening all. I hope you all had as merry a Christmas as I did.

    The one I would really take issue with is 1. Yes, there will be a Brexit deal, unless things go badly wrong (still a significant risk). However, every indication is that the EU is gradually dissolving its red lines. Of course, any deal will be depicted by the irreconcilables and partisan opponents of the government as being on the EU's terms, but I don't think that will be the reality. We will, in all likelihood, have some modicum of having our cake and eating it, with good access to the Single Market but without freedom of movement de jure.

    Which leads me to my main prediction for 2018. I agree with Alastair both that there will with alarums, excursions and brouhahas on the Brexit negotiations, and that the UK economy will surprise to the upside*. But I go further: Theresa May's political reputation will surprise to the upside.

    " This is not investment advice, but you might like to consider the discount to NAV of British Land... Do your own research, etc etc.

    This is a fun game. Here’s my predictions (which have a poor track record):
    1. Agree with Alistair. I’d be more specific and say we will do a deal and say we will have good access to single market and maintain freedom of movement in practice. A few Tory Brexiteers will fuss but most will be persuaded by the Gove line that we are out and have the power to change things further in future/when they stand as leader.
    2. Suspect party leaders will stay but I also think May could be forced into giving an exit date.
    3. I think no/very few Cabinet departures and no reshuffle. But the briefings against each other will intensify. I think we will see much greater clarity on who is planning to replace Theresa, deals will be done. Total guess but I think both Gove and Leadsom will offer their support to someone if they can be Chancellor. High profile leavers will be in demand to give the Remainer leader hopefuls some street cred with the membership.
    4. I think Tories may pull ahead of Labour slightly after Brexit deal is announced/clear but otherwise both parties will drift downwards in polls back to the 30s.
    5. UK Economy will under perform as growth drifts downwards. No recession.
    6. Republicans will lose House in mid terms, just hold onto Senate (possibly needing Pence for tiebreaks). Dems will begin impeachment process but probably jump the gun. The evidence from Mueller will be both damning and deniable and ultimately the Republican Senators won’t back impeachment in significant numbers.
    7. My black swan event/longshot - some kind of major NHS catastrophe a la Grenfell which captures the public consciousness..
  • John McDonnell has backed the return of flying pickets and “sympathy strikes” as part of Labour’s latest plan to take Britain back to the 1970’s.

    The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    John McDonnell has backed the return of flying pickets and “sympathy strikes” as part of Labour’s latest plan to take Britain back to the 1970’s.

    The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/

    It's so much fun to re-fight old battles - everyone's at it!
  • Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    No they didn't. They are tenants who rent it for a set number of games each year and pay a fee for that. They share the tenancy with British Athletics. The ground is not theirs and is still used for many other events as decided by the Stadium owners and the management company they have assigned.
    I meant their tenancy is basically a give away.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/20m-bill-to-taxpayer-mayor-takes-control-of-london-stadium-a3707266.html?amp
    Khan is being a tosser for political ends. The only alternative tenant for the stadium was Tottenham Hotspur and their bid required the whole stadium to be knocked down and rebuilt specifically for football alone which would have meant no athletics or other sport in direct breach of the promise made to the IOC at the time of the London bid.

    Manchester City pay £3 million a year rent for the Etihad Stadium compared to West Ham paying £2.5 million a year for the Olympic Stadium.
  • Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    No they didn't. They are tenants who rent it for a set number of games each year and pay a fee for that. They share the tenancy with British Athletics. The ground is not theirs and is still used for many other events as decided by the Stadium owners and the management company they have assigned.
    I meant their tenancy is basically a give away.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/20m-bill-to-taxpayer-mayor-takes-control-of-london-stadium-a3707266.html?amp
    Khan is being a tosser for political ends. The only alternative tenant for the stadium was Tottenham Hotspur and their bid required the whole stadium to be knocked down and rebuilt specifically for football alone which would have meant no athletics or other sport in direct breach of the promise made to the IOC at the time of the London bid.

    Manchester City pay £3 million a year rent for the Etihad Stadium compared to West Ham paying £2.5 million a year for the Olympic Stadium.
    That's not a proper comparison.

    For starters as City gave Maine Road to the council when they became tenants of the Etihad.

    Secondly City spent close to £25 million to refurb the ground when they took possession.

    Thirdly City have spent close to £300 million on developing the ground and surrounding areas.

    Fourthly any sponsorship deals of the Etihad the council get a proportion of the income.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    1. Harry is gorgeous!

    2. How crap is the Met. They can’t do rape cases and now children are being let down. What the hell do they do well?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294

    John McDonnell has backed the return of flying pickets and “sympathy strikes” as part of Labour’s latest plan to take Britain back to the 1970’s.

    The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/

    The telegraph is not a great source when it comes to Labours plans.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    1. Harry is gorgeous!

    2. How crap is the Met. They can’t do rape cases and now children are being let down. What the hell do they do well?
    Monitor the weather?

    Edit: In all seriousness, maybe the Met and Met Office should swap jobs for a week, just to shake things up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    Only an idiot would back or tip David Davis as next Tory leader/PM.

    If anything that makes Davis more likely to succeed May as if there are too many concessions to the EU for the Brexiteers who comprise most Tory members he can blame them on Robbins while still reflecting any glory from a deal on himself
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    rkrkrk said:

    John McDonnell has backed the return of flying pickets and “sympathy strikes” as part of Labour’s latest plan to take Britain back to the 1970’s.

    The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/

    The telegraph is not a great source when it comes to Labours plans.


    Is something wrong with the article?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited December 2017

    Forget all that nonsense, what I want to know is if the hans solo movie is going to be good like rogue one or a steaming pile of poo like the last Jedi!

    Rogue One was so dull I fell asleep, the Last Jedi was the best Star Wars movie I have seen at the cinema
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    stevef said:

    There is nothing bold in any of those predictions. You may as well predict that in August you expect the weather to be warmer than in January.
    1). There will be a Brexit deal. Of course there will. The EU will get what it wants. Doesnt it always. It is after all a very powerful Mafiosi, able to destroy economies if it does not. I think there will be some concessions on freedom of movement however.

    2). Of course the party leaders will stay the same if illness or death doesnt decree otherwise. Theresa May will be prime minister, and Corbyn is a fanatic who loves the adulation and the songs and the Corbyn colouring books and tee shirts.

    3). There will probably more cabinet departures. Probably. If you look back at British political history, there are very few years under any government when there are not cabinet departures. There was at least one for nearly every one of the Thatcher and Blair years. Why would Theresa May's government be any different.

    I would be bold however, and suggest that there will be some rising cabinet stars tipped for the top job when May goes.

    4) Labour and the Tories will remain neck and neck in the polls. Probably. But the fact remains that oppositions should be streets ahead. No opposition has ever won a general election without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. That rule has never been broken.

    Though Labour could form a minority government even if they don't win outright and with pro Union statements like that from McDonnell enough voters in key seats may again decide to give neither party a majority
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,294
    RobD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John McDonnell has backed the return of flying pickets and “sympathy strikes” as part of Labour’s latest plan to take Britain back to the 1970’s.

    The shadow chancellor, together with the Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, has endorsed the policies of a Labour think-tank that wants to repeal all prohibitive trade union laws passed since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/27/john-mcdonnell-backs-return-flying-pickets-labour-drive-take/

    The telegraph is not a great source when it comes to Labours plans.


    Is something wrong with the article?
    My rule of thumb - if telegraph writes some new terrible revelation about Labour that isn’t in papers like the times or the ft etc. then it’s probably bollocks or at least deeply misleading.

    Maybe this article will turn out to be absolutely fine - but ultimately I try to limit the amount of misinformation I get and wait for better sources.
  • Tim_B said:

    Whatever happened to the London Olympic stadium?

    West Ham effectively got given it and play their home games there...
    No they didn't. They are tenants who rent it for a set number of games each year and pay a fee for that. They share the tenancy with British Athletics. The ground is not theirs and is still used for many other events as decided by the Stadium owners and the management company they have assigned.
    I meant their tenancy is basically a give away.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/20m-bill-to-taxpayer-mayor-takes-control-of-london-stadium-a3707266.html?amp
    Khan is being a tosser for political ends. The only alternative tenant for the stadium was Tottenham Hotspur and their bid required the whole stadium to be knocked down and rebuilt specifically for football alone which would have meant no athletics or other sport in direct breach of the promise made to the IOC at the time of the London bid.

    Manchester City pay £3 million a year rent for the Etihad Stadium compared to West Ham paying £2.5 million a year for the Olympic Stadium.
    That's not a proper comparison.

    For starters as City gave Maine Road to the council when they became tenants of the Etihad.

    Secondly City spent close to £25 million to refurb the ground when they took possession.

    Thirdly City have spent close to £300 million on developing the ground and surrounding areas.

    Fourthly any sponsorship deals of the Etihad the council get a proportion of the income.
    All of which ignores the fact that the Etihad Stadium is operated by Manchester City FC on behalf of the Council which means they get to use it almost all the year round. They decide what other events are held there and arrange them to suit their own programme.

    The West Ham deal is for 25 days usage a year.

    In addition the conversion of the Etihad was to remove the running track and prevent it being used for future Athletics events - something that is explicitly prohibited at the Olympic Stadium.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,975
    Can someone explain why there is such a dramatic divergence of view about whether the latest SW film is worth seeing, and how it compares to the last one? The common views appear to be that one is crap and one is great, differing as to which, and I haven't yet seen anyone argue that they are both great or both poor.
  • IanB2 said:

    Can someone explain why there is such a dramatic divergence of view about whether the latest SW film is worth seeing, and how it compares to the last one? The common views appear to be that one is crap and one is great, differing as to which, and I haven't yet seen anyone argue that they are both great or both poor.

    Like you I have not yet seen it. But reading some of the non spoiler reviews it appears that the director and scriptwriters have made the decision not to take it in a predictable direction - not to have neat, pat explanations about the origins of certain characters - but to be rather more realistic about things. Sometimes people do things for reasons we cannot explain and not everyone needs to have illustrious ancestors to be important to a story. Loose ends do not need to be tied up every time.

    The main annoyance (outside of the fringe that TSE mentioned earlier who see political and social overtones in everything they view) seems to be from the fanboys who are finding out that, as Luke Skywalker says in the trailer, “This is not going to go the way you think”.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    The Brexit bill could be higher than we thought... Unless of course, we decide that leaving the customs union isn't worth it after all.
    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    edited December 2017

    The Brexit bill could be higher than we thought... Unless of course, we decide that leaving the customs union isn't worth it after all.

    I wonder if they'll help set up customs ports in Dover? No, thought not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,831
    RobD said:

    The Brexit bill could be higher than we thought... Unless of course, we decide that leaving the customs union isn't worth it after all.

    I wonder if they'll help set up customs ports in Dover? No, thought not.
    At least you've thought about it. You're way ahead of Iain Duncan Smith.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,213
    IanB2 said:

    Can someone explain why there is such a dramatic divergence of view about whether the latest SW film is worth seeing, and how it compares to the last one? The common views appear to be that one is crap and one is great, differing as to which, and I haven't yet seen anyone argue that they are both great or both poor.

    SPOILER ALERT. I've wrapped the reply in a blockquote because spoilers: expand to read
    viewcode said:


    viewcode said:


    Problems with the Last Jedi include:

    1) POORLY JUDGED HUMOUR
    Star Wars is a somewhat po-faced franchise, and this film contains more humour than usual

    2) BLOATED PLOT
    TLJ has an extended subplot involving John Boyega which slows the film and could have been excised and written around

    3) UNNECESSARY NEW CHARACTERS
    The Benicio Del Toro character was unnecessary and could have been excised and his plot function assigned to somebody else

    4) UNFULFILLED EXPECTATION
    It was thought that Rey (the primary protagonist) was a relative of one of the others, that Snoke (the boss of the antagonist) would be a major ongoing character, that Phasma (a minor redshirt) would have an expanded role. None of these things happened: Rey has no famous relatives, Snoke is dispatched early, Phasma is killed without ever amounting to anything

    5) INCONGRUOUS ACTIONS FOR THE SAKE OF PLOT
    When offered his long-lost lightsaber, Luke tosses it idly over his shoulder. Kylo Ren kills his boss Snoke. There are good dramatic reasons for these actions: the lightsaber disposal indicates Luke's disenchantment with his Jedi role, Snoke's murder is necessary to make Ren the primary protagonist. But in context, they are incongruous: tossing a lightsaber that somebody has travelled a long distance to give you is rude, and killing your boss to save your enemy is a bit weird. It's jarring.

    In case you think this is just fan whining, I am not a Star Wars fan (Star Trek, on the other hand...) and the last one I saw in cinemas was "Revenge of the Sith"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    Cannot believe that another English batsman has walked after being given LBW when they hit it! 2 out of 4 wickets.

    England in danger of losing their strong position here.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,774
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    The Brexit bill could be higher than we thought... Unless of course, we decide that leaving the customs union isn't worth it after all.

    I wonder if they'll help set up customs ports in Dover? No, thought not.
    Ils nous auraient à leur merci. If they rip up Le Touquet then the jungle moves to Dover so May has to preserve that arrangement at all costs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    The Brexit bill could be higher than we thought... Unless of course, we decide that leaving the customs union isn't worth it after all.

    I wonder if they'll help set up customs ports in Dover? No, thought not.
    Ils nous auraient à leur merci. If they rip up Le Touquet then the jungle moves to Dover so May has to preserve that arrangement at all costs.
    I thought the jungle had been cleared last year?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 793
    edited December 2017
    By chance I was woken by an ill daughter this morning, and spared 5 minutes to peek at Flightradar. A small knot of transatlantic flights circled between Reading and Farnborough, with similar knots over Wiltshire, Hertfordshire and over Kingston.

    I think I concur with Mr Meeks that British politics, barring a serious external event, will spend 2018 in a holding position blowing Brexit snow from the runway.

    One mistake. "We should ignore them all. We won't" - why so modest as to not use "I" in that sentence!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    IanB2 said:

    Can someone explain why there is such a dramatic divergence of view about whether the latest SW film is worth seeing, and how it compares to the last one? The common views appear to be that one is crap and one is great, differing as to which, and I haven't yet seen anyone argue that they are both great or both poor.

    I can’t explain it - I really liked both. The latest is funnier in a more cutesy way despite the drama, takes some unexpected turns, both of which sone will dislike, and it has a couple of head scratching moments, but as a middle trilogy film it was great and as a side story the last one was great.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Can someone explain why there is such a dramatic divergence of view about whether the latest SW film is worth seeing, and how it compares to the last one? The common views appear to be that one is crap and one is great, differing as to which, and I haven't yet seen anyone argue that they are both great or both poor.

    SPOILER ALERT. I've wrapped the reply in a blockquote because spoilers: expand to read
    viewcode said:


    viewcode said:


    Problems with the Last Jedi include:

    1) POORLY JUDGED HUMOUR
    Star Wars is a somewhat po-faced franchise, and this film contains more humour than usual

    2) BLOATED PLOT
    TLJ has an extended subplot involving John Boyega which slows the film and could have been excised and written around

    3) UNNECESSARY NEW CHARACTERS
    The Benicio Del Toro character was unnecessary and could have been excised and his plot function assigned to somebody else

    4) UNFULFILLED EXPECTATION
    It was thought that Rey (the primary protagonist) was a relative of one of the others, that Snoke (the boss of the antagonist) would be a major ongoing character, that Phasma (a minor redshirt) would have an expanded role. None of these things happened: Rey has no famous relatives, Snoke is dispatched early, Phasma is killed without ever amounting to anything

    5) INCONGRUOUS ACTIONS FOR THE SAKE OF PLOT
    When offered his long-lost lightsaber, Luke tosses it idly over his shoulder. Kylo Ren kills his boss Snoke. There are good dramatic reasons for these actions: the lightsaber disposal indicates Luke's disenchantment with his Jedi role, Snoke's murder is necessary to make Ren the primary protagonist. But in context, they are incongruous: tossing a lightsaber that somebody has travelled a long distance to give you is rude, and killing your boss to save your enemy is a bit weird. It's jarring.

    In case you think this is just fan whining, I am not a Star Wars fan (Star Trek, on the other hand...) and the last one I saw in cinemas was "Revenge of the Sith"
    I’ll give you the second and third ones, but disagree on the first, especially after rewatching 7 and R1, it was quite in line and only slightly different. The fourth is a major positive, allowing them to break the mound and give greater depth to the plot and the character in question, and the same goes with 5, that’s not incongruous it goes to the heart of that ones core conflict which was apparent throughout and was incredibly well set up and justified imo. The characters and the great acting are what make it so good for me.

    Mileage may vary on that last one, but your fourth reason is I think the biggest complaint, and the least reasonable in terms of backlash imo.

    Night all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,540
    edited December 2017
    Bloody hell, Alistair Cook is in danger of both getting a Daddy and carrying his bat - which probably means he’ll be the last wicket on 199.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Bloody hell, Alistair Cook is in danger of both getting a Daddy and carrying his bat - which probably means he’ll be the last wicket on 199.

    Avoided that at least, phew!

    I know his average is low compared to others on the all time list, and he’s no Sanggakara or Tendulkar, but the additional challenge from being an opener I don’t think is acknowledged enough -generally openers are not the most fluid, talented scorers in a team, and it’s even harder to get not outs.t

    Moving at a fair lick since Broad got in, and broad having one of his lucky innings, the only way he scores runs anymore.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,540
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bloody hell, Alistair Cook is in danger of both getting a Daddy and carrying his bat - which probably means he’ll be the last wicket on 199.

    Avoided that at least, phew!

    I know his average is low compared to others on the all time list, and he’s no Sanggakara or Tendulkar, but the additional challenge from being an opener I don’t think is acknowledged enough -generally openers are not the most fluid, talented scorers in a team, and it’s even harder to get not outs.t

    Moving at a fair lick since Broad got in, and broad having one of his lucky innings, the only way he scores runs anymore.
    Yes, Cook finally comes good with a brilliant innings, but sadly too late in the series for it to count for anything except the history books.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bloody hell, Alistair Cook is in danger of both getting a Daddy and carrying his bat - which probably means he’ll be the last wicket on 199.

    Avoided that at least, phew!

    I know his average is low compared to others on the all time list, and he’s no Sanggakara or Tendulkar, but the additional challenge from being an opener I don’t think is acknowledged enough -generally openers are not the most fluid, talented scorers in a team, and it’s even harder to get not outs.t

    Moving at a fair lick since Broad got in, and broad having one of his lucky innings, the only way he scores runs anymore.
    Yes, Cook finally comes good with a brilliant innings, but sadly too late in the series for it to count for anything except the history books.
    It’s a shame none of our top guys really performed when the urn was still up for grabs, but thems the breaks. As a child of the 90s, avoiding humiliation and hopefully winning one or two to count toward overall games won is better than nothing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    edited December 2017
    Sigh, no sleep, work in a few hours, and i cannot even pass the time watching cricket all day instead of working due to that whole Eastern Hemisphere thing and so the timezones. Thanks for being difficult, Eastern Hemisphere.

    Edit - do people talk in terms of East and west hemispheres?
This discussion has been closed.