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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How punters saw 2017 on three key UK political betting markets

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,351



    He certainly strikes me as better informed and wiser than most of the people he interviews.

    Like the Times and the Economost, he is very good at putting a single view convincingly even when there are several possible alrernatives, but he covers up factual errors with bluster in a way that he would rightly not tolerate in an interviewee. I've never heard him concede a point even when he was given a straight answer.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    EPG said:

    Does Toby Young think eugenics should be used to screen out low-income foetuses if they are purportedly genetically inclined toward criminality? Imagine if in the days of candlelight and archery, we had screened out short-sightedness.

    OK, I'm imagining that. And except for the absence of a lot of irritating Specsavers ads the world doesn't seem very different. Also, medieval medtech was really, really bad at discriminating between different alleles at a given locus in a chromosome in a fertilised egg.
  • Barnam said:

    Barnam said:
    » show previous quotes
    Who is still afraid of UKIP and Farage? One guess. :)

    TSE said:
    I'm always afraid of Jew baiting scum.

    TSE must be talking about Corbyn and his Momentum crew. Now how does he link UKIP with Jew baiting? Must be in the blood.

    Nope, I'm talking about Nigel Farage

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-condemned-over-jewish-lobby-comment-1.447010

    And Leave.EU, an organisation he is closely connected to tweeting a well known anti-Semitic trope about someone of Jewish heritage.



    Ms Cyclefree did an elegant post about it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,638
    He just can't admit when someone's played better than him. Can't say I'm sad to see Taylor go.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,361

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
  • I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
    That was then, this is now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,361

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
    That was then, this is now.
    But, oddly, even now no-one seems bothered. Compare and contrast with witchhunts over other issues from long ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,497

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Which job do you think Toby Young would hold in a meritocracy?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,699

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
    Or indeed Winston Churchill.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,825
    Cyclefree said:

    It suggests a less than happy place. It would concern me as a parent if there was such turnover at a school attended by my children.

    One wonders how much due diligence has been done on Mr Young’s actual achievements. Or will this be like Camilla Batmanghelidjh - someone who is good at talking but bloody awful at implementation? Governments seem to be particularly vulnerable to such people.
    Two of my cousins go to that school and love it - their family has stayed in the area for the school they’re so happy. The range of extra curricular stuff they do is really impressive.

    I’d argue it’s politicians who are vulnerable to the smooth talking policy entrepreneur... civil servants tend to be naturally sceptical - sometimes overly so.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,361

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
    Or indeed Winston Churchill.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/feb/17/eugenics-skeleton-rattles-loudest-closet-left
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,004
    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018

    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!

    Wait. Is the EU supposed to be active in foreign affairs, or not?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 500

    How do you pronounce that? Ire-zit? Sounds like someone upset about having a spot.
    RetIreland.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,638
    edited January 1
    On Toby Young and eugenics, here is his argument in favour of it:

    https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/09/fall-meritocracy/

    It's an interesting piece. Whether his idea is workable, I'm not sure, but I can understand the logic behind his argument.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018

    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!
    Wait. Is the EU supposed to be active in foreign affairs, or not?

    Too many EU & UK nationals in Iranian prisons, and with the recent history of the Republic, how many of them would survive if the Iranian government got annoyed? Favourite method of public execution is to use a large crane to hang by strangulation, and you can be sure that the sentences will be video'd and put on YouTube. Who would be blamed, won't be the Iranian regime.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,686
    tlg86 said:

    On Toby Young and eugenics, here is his argument in favour of it:

    https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/09/fall-meritocracy/

    It's an interesting piece. Whether his idea is workable, I'm not sure, but I can understand the logic behind his argument.

    It is an interesting piece, not least for Toby Young inadvertently revealing himself to be the kind of person his father despised.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805

    I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.

    Enthusiasm for eugenics didn't do any harm to the careers or reputations of John Maynard Keynes, William Beveridge, Harold Laski, or Sidney and Beatrice Webb.
    Or indeed Winston Churchill.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/feb/17/eugenics-skeleton-rattles-loudest-closet-left
    Having seen the Germans / Japanese, those people should have - and largely did - keep silent after 1945.

    Toby Young is not in the position of theorising about a novel idea that hasn't happened yet.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018

    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!
    Wait. Is the EU supposed to be active in foreign affairs, or not?

    Too many involved in Iran already, the Israelis, the Saudis, the Russians and probably the CIA as well. Then there are the countries that the Iranian Revolutionary government is actively trying to destabilise, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Syria and many others. The EU and the UK are both actively pissed off with the Iranians on many different levels, but, to get involved openly would, just now be counterproductive. Far better to wait and see what the final results are.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,908
    Toby Young. Dear oh dear. Not one of Cameron's smartest moves.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,773
    Oh dear - the handwringers in a tizzy about Toby.

    Suggests he is the right appointment to take on the job.

  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    tlg86 said:

    On Toby Young and eugenics, here is his argument in favour of it:

    https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/09/fall-meritocracy/

    It's an interesting piece. Whether his idea is workable, I'm not sure, but I can understand the logic behind his argument.

    The theory behind eugenics is plausible and very beguiling, until you think about the implementation of it. Who decides on the standards of those that will survive to enhance the human species, and what will happen to those who do not meet that standard. To give some idea, most who comment on politics here, whether from the right or left, could be considered a sub normal sector of society, against the majority of the public who really don't give a damn about politics. Then there are those who are beyond breeding age, or have some disability or incapacity of even a minor sort, or have alternative religious beliefs....... Beginning to think that it might not be such a good idea after all?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,773
    Iceland has almost eliminated Dowms syndrome through eugenics.


    Can we expect some anti Toby posters to be protesting outside their embassy tomorrow ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,905
    O/T

    Does anyone drive an Outlander PHEV? A family member is thinking of buying one and I'm looking at the various reviews.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/mitsubishi/outlander-phev
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    As someone with strong family links to Iran, I just wanted to say that the worst thing the protesters need is for Western politicians to vocally support them. The US backing of the Green movement fatally undermined it, as once Obama spoke out Iranians on the fence started believing the government's line it was a foreign plot. I hope Western governments don't fall for the siren calls of Islamophobes like Slaughter or well-meaning liberals like Verhofstadt.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,174
    TGOHF said:

    Iceland has almost eliminated Dowms syndrome through eugenics.


    Can we expect some anti Toby posters to be protesting outside their embassy tomorrow ?

    Um, hold on a minute. Down's syndrome isn't caused by a problem with the parents' DNAs pre-conception, it's caused by a problem with cell division post-conception. However Iceland is eliminating Down's syndrome, it's not by preventing stigmatised individuals from conceiving a child. I haven't googled this (because I'm rather afraid I'll go to Hell), but it sounds like Iceland is aborting Down's foetuses on detection. Is that the case?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,497
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Does anyone drive an Outlander PHEV? A family member is thinking of buying one and I'm looking at the various reviews.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/mitsubishi/outlander-phev

    My wife's (practice) partner was thinking about one then she got a Prius+.

    They are incredibly slow and expensive. Unless they are dead set on an SUV the Prius+ makes a lot more sense as it has has similar performance and is 5 grand cheaper.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,997
    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Does anyone drive an Outlander PHEV? A family member is thinking of buying one and I'm looking at the various reviews.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/mitsubishi/outlander-phev

    My wife's (practice) partner was thinking about one then she got a Prius+.

    They are incredibly slow and expensive. Unless they are dead set on an SUV the Prius+ makes a lot more sense as it has has similar performance and is 5 grand cheaper.

    Test drove one. Yes - slow, but it is about the only plug-in hybrid that will tow unless you have huge money to spend.

    Elecrics are a good deal when a couple of years old, because they lose value hugely quickly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,013
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.

    Isn't the qualitative difference, ironically, the greater likelihood of the UK breaking up as a result of Scottish independence and the reunification of Ireland?
    According to the latest Italian polls the Lega Nord which wants the North of Italy to break away is on 12% in the national polls, higher than the SNP and SF are in Westminster polls.

    Plus of course Spain is more likely to suffer an imminent breakaway from Catalonia than the UK or Italy are to see a breakaway after separatist votes won most seats in their recent regional elections while unionist parties are set for a majority in Holyrood at the next Scottish Parliament elections on the latest polls and Unionist Parties in NI still have more representatives than Nationalist Parties
    Oblivious to reality
This discussion has been closed.