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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE1

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

One of the ongoing narratives over the past year has been that Labour is particularly vulnerable on Brexit because about two-thirds of its constituencies voted leave in the referendum in June 2016.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    First, like Leave and Mrs May.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 176
    Brexit had little to do with the election then.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,512
    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,749
    edited January 6
    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,496

    May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    Excluding Scotland 7/9 of the Tory gains were in Leave seats (and Richmond Park was a seat they won in 2015 but lost in a 2016 by election).

    Corbyn won those 15 Leave seats only because he committed to end free movement and leave the single market. Plus of the 64 seats Labour needs for a majority, 36 are Tory Leave seats
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641
    houndtang said:

    Brexit had little to do with the election then.

    That much was clear at the time. Jezza's masterstroke was his obstinacy. He fought what was supposed to be May's Brexit election on his own turf of austerity and generational injustice.

    And clearly, the EU is not the decisive factor in most peoples votes, either way.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    Finest Hour, until the next one...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,580
    According to Wikipedia, 247 of the 327 seats which were Tory at the time of the referendum voted leave. So that's 75.5%.

    Of the 28 gains Labour made from the Tories, 15 voted leave. Which is 53.6%.

    That is a statistically significant difference.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    Priti Patel’s been remarkably quiet constituency-wise lately. So now we know what she’s been doing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197

    Priti Patel’s been remarkably quiet constituency-wise lately. So now we know what she’s been doing.

    She thinks the vote unfair. Only thing to do is rerun it. ;-)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,401
    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    While the LibDem's Remain campaign has been already been fined by the Electoral Commission:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42411144
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,015
    This post seems to have it backwards - they're vulnerable precisely because they made gains predicated on being for Leave when they're going to have to make it increasingly clear they're not really for leave at all. They would hardly be vulnerable if their support was all in remain areas.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    Indeed.

    Any other Labour leader would have achieved no more than 35%.

    But Jezza's misfortune was that he wasn't facing Cameron and Osborne - if had been he would now be PM.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,114
    BBC reports Coutinho fee agreed. Strange....@tse assured me Barca couldn't afford him...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,796
    One of the great idiocies of the Tory campaign was failing to see that a Brexit election where 85% of the votes were going to parties you couldn't get a fag paper between on Brexit was soon going to bore the media. And soon not be a Brexit election......
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,853
    I canvassed in Derby North and can honestly say BREXIT didnt come up once,

    The Tories stealing Grannies house came up lots and on the side of the many not the few was extremely popular
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,304

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    Indeed.

    Any other Labour leader would have achieved no more than 35%.

    But Jezza's misfortune was that he wasn't facing Cameron and Osborne - if had been he would now be PM.
    If Cameron and Osborne had still been in office OR if somebody centrist had been leading Labour...

    ...there would have been no election in 2017.

    Can we please bear in mind that it was the gibes about her being unelected plus Corbyn's apocalyptically bad polling ratings that led May to call the election. Had Cooper been leading it is hard to imagine Labour would have been in the low 20s in the polls.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    If the majority of Labour gains were in Leave areas, that is because voters there expected Labour to implement

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    Indeed.

    Any other Labour leader would have achieved no more than 35%.

    But Jezza's misfortune was that he wasn't facing Cameron and Osborne - if had been he would now be PM.
    The Corbynista self deluding myth goes on. All to be shattered at that exit poll in June 2022.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016
    ydoethur said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    Indeed.

    Any other Labour leader would have achieved no more than 35%.

    But Jezza's misfortune was that he wasn't facing Cameron and Osborne - if had been he would now be PM.
    If Cameron and Osborne had still been in office OR if somebody centrist had been leading Labour...

    ...there would have been no election in 2017.

    Can we please bear in mind that it was the gibes about her being unelected plus Corbyn's apocalyptically bad polling ratings that led May to call the election. Had Cooper been leading it is hard to imagine Labour would have been in the low 20s in the polls.
    But the Conservatives would have had to face a general election at some point and the longer their policies of student debt and house prices continued the worse it would have been for them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,580
    edited January 6
    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016

    One of the great idiocies of the Tory campaign was failing to see that a Brexit election where 85% of the votes were going to parties you couldn't get a fag paper between on Brexit was soon going to bore the media. And soon not be a Brexit election......

    Having a long election campaign is rarely a good idea nor is a manifesto with potentially unpopular ideas.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Partly because Labour was led by a Brexiteer, Jeremy Corbyn, and partly because a very large number of older voters did not turn out to vote because they were angry about TM's dementia tax and other anti pensioner measures.

    Now imagine that all those older voters turn out in large numbers in 2022, and add to that a perception that Labour is trying to stop Brexit or trying to water it down.....................
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,088
    stevef said:

    Now imagine that all those older voters turn out in large numbers in 2022, and add to that a perception that Labour is trying to stop Brexit or trying to water it down.....................

    Water down Brexit? How could it get more watery than full alignment with the single market and customs union?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016
    dixiedean said:

    BBC reports Coutinho fee agreed. Strange....@tse assured me Barca couldn't afford him...

    Liverpool can't afford not to sell him for that profit.

    Its not as if he's going to make the difference to Liverpool being able to win anything worthwhile.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,580

    One of the great idiocies of the Tory campaign was failing to see that a Brexit election where 85% of the votes were going to parties you couldn't get a fag paper between on Brexit was soon going to bore the media. And soon not be a Brexit election......

    Having a long election campaign is rarely a good idea nor is a manifesto with potentially unpopular ideas.
    I actually thought one of the advantages of calling the election was that it would allow the Tories to make some tough decisions. However, they utterly mishandled the social care policy. What they were proposing was actually an improvement on the current situation, but no one knew that. What they could have done with was having a month or two of the media talking about the current situation, showing people having to sell their homes and never being able to return to them etc.

    But that would have needed a plan and for others to know that an election was coming. Clearly May wanted to keep it a secret and so no one else was allowed to know,
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 922
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    Now imagine that all those older voters turn out in large numbers in 2022, and add to that a perception that Labour is trying to stop Brexit or trying to water it down.....................

    Water down Brexit? How could it get more watery than full alignment with the single market and customs union?
    Labour is moving towards a policy of the UK remaining in the Single Market. This would be a gift to the Tories. But its those older voters turning out that is the key to 2022...............
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615

    stevef said:

    Now imagine that all those older voters turn out in large numbers in 2022, and add to that a perception that Labour is trying to stop Brexit or trying to water it down.....................

    Water down Brexit? How could it get more watery than full alignment with the single market and customs union?
    By actually being in the single market and customs union and keeping free movement permanently in place
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,016
    edited January 6
    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    The Conservatives didn't do too well in Leave areas in and around London either.

    The issues of student debt and unaffordable housing cut across the Leave / Remain divide.

    And what Corbyn was offering was an alternative (which EdM wasn't in 2015).
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    The Conservatives didn't do too well in Leave areas in and around London either.

    The issues of student debt and unaffordable housing cut across the Leave / Remain divide.

    And what Corbyn was offering was an alternative (which EdM wasn't in 2015).
    I dont think Corbyn will be PM after the next election. But if he is, the alternative that he is offering will come as a terrible shock to all those who think he is the answer to their problems. He would let them down so badly, the Tories would be in power for a generation afterwards.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    Not forgetting the investigation into the Remain campaigns and the fines already levied on the LD remain spend.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,244
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    You seem as usual to underestimate him .He did not go into the last GE with any certainty at all .If I remember correctly people like you and me said he should not give May her election as the Labour party would be obliterated..That is why I treat your prediction as bull shine, maybe a bit of doubt in your understanding of future events would be welcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    edited January 6
    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Now imagine that all those older voters turn out in large numbers in 2022, and add to that a perception that Labour is trying to stop Brexit or trying to water it down.....................

    Water down Brexit? How could it get more watery than full alignment with the single market and customs union?
    Labour is moving towards a policy of the UK remaining in the Single Market. This would be a gift to the Tories. But its those older voters turning out that is the key to 2022...............
    There is no evidence Corbyn and McDonnell are moving to such a policy, Corbyn sacked 3 frontbenchers for backing Umunna's amendment to stay permanently in the single market
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    There was a significant fall in the number of older voters who turned out.All analyses acknowledge this. Those older voters are likely to turn out in large numbers next time. The myth of Corbyn is going to lead to catastrophic defeat in 2022.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    Anyone who was 75 in 2017 will be 80 in 2022. And as I get closer to 80, (five months to go) I feel a lot less fit than I did when I was 75!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    There was a significant fall in the number of older voters who turned out.All analyses acknowledge this. Those older voters are likely to turn out in large numbers next time. The myth of Corbyn is going to lead to catastrophic defeat in 2022.
    Yeah, yeah. Heard it all in April. It didn't happen that way though, did it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    There was a significant fall in the number of older voters who turned out.All analyses acknowledge this. Those older voters are likely to turn out in large numbers next time. The myth of Corbyn is going to lead to catastrophic defeat in 2022.
    Over 70% of older voters turned out in both 2017 and 2015 though there was a higher turnout in 2015 there was less than 10% difference, and in voteshare terms the Tories got a higher vote with pensioners in 2017 than 2015. The main movement was from the middle aged
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    Anyone who was 75 in 2017 will be 80 in 2022. And as I get closer to 80, (five months to go) I feel a lot less fit than I did when I was 75!
    Is that why no-one ever votes Conservative now as all their old voters died? Oh...wait..Wrong!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    If it was a "free hit" and not serious, then why has Corbyn's polling held up?

    I find no evidence to support your contention.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,244
    edited January 6
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    There was a significant fall in the number of older voters who turned out.All analyses acknowledge this. Those older voters are likely to turn out in large numbers next time. The myth of Corbyn is going to lead to catastrophic defeat in 2022.
    Who do you want to lead the Labour party ? Who did you vote for the in the Labour leadership in 2015 and ,,2017 ? Do you think they would have done any better than Corbyn.I have asked you this before but you never answer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    Anyone who was 75 in 2017 will be 80 in 2022. And as I get closer to 80, (five months to go) I feel a lot less fit than I did when I was 75!
    Is that why no-one ever votes Conservative now as all their old voters died? Oh...wait..Wrong!
    I know, I know. I’m the exception to the rule! I’ve moved further to the left.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    Anyone who was 75 in 2017 will be 80 in 2022. And as I get closer to 80, (five months to go) I feel a lot less fit than I did when I was 75!
    Is that why no-one ever votes Conservative now as all their old voters died? Oh...wait..Wrong!
    Certainly it used to be the case that as adults grew older, had stable jobs and became householders, with youthful optimism and frugality behind them they would trend Tory.

    Will the next generation follow that trajectory or will they become more bitter at being kept on the margin? Time will tell.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,580
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    If it was a "free hit" and not serious, then why has Corbyn's polling held up?

    I find no evidence to support your contention.
    The next election is not happening in the next month or so.

    It would be foolish to think that the polls today are relevant to the next election in the same way Theresa May was wrong to assume that the polls in April would guarantee her a big win in June.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    I could envisage either the Conservatives or Labour winning in 2022. Labour's big advantages are that people are tired of austerity, and a large minority loathe Brexit. The Conservatives' big advantages are that they are trusted on economic management, many people fear Corbyn, and a large minority are enthusiasts for Brexit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    I agree. Corbynista hubris is breathtaking. Just wait until an overconfident Corbyn goes into the 2022 election with the commentators expecting a hard left government and the older voters who abstained in 2017 queueing round the corner to vote Tory to stop Corbyn.

    Over 80% of pensioners turned out to vote and the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983, so I don't think it was older voters abstention which hit them so much as Corbyn rallying the left. The main movement during the campaign over the dementia tax to Labour was from the middle aged.
    Anyone who was 75 in 2017 will be 80 in 2022. And as I get closer to 80, (five months to go) I feel a lot less fit than I did when I was 75!
    Is that why no-one ever votes Conservative now as all their old voters died? Oh...wait..Wrong!
    Certainly it used to be the case that as adults grew older, had stable jobs and became householders, with youthful optimism and frugality behind them they would trend Tory.

    Will the next generation follow that trajectory or will they become more bitter at being kept on the margin? Time will tell.
    Even now the average age of first marriage is 29 and to become a first time buyer is 36, so it continues to be the case most voters will not start to consider voting Tory until their later thirties, as they did in 2015, or their 40s, as they did in 2017
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    I think we have our twat of the year on twitter.

    Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein MP for West Tyrone, filmed himself dancing around with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head, on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749
    Doing my belated annual watch of Star Wars. Managed to get my hands on the despecialised editions. No stupid Lucas edits.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    Nobody really cared what they thought or said because they were going to lose, big time. The only question was what size was Mrs May's majority going to be? The answer to that proved somewhat unexpected.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Sean_F said:

    I think we have our twat of the year on twitter.

    Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein MP for West Tyrone, filmed himself dancing around with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head, on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.

    He's a young idiot but I would still be making very detailed inquiries into his movements on the relevant day. It's useful to have the odd reminder from time to time of the sort of people Corbyn thought it was wise to be friends with. The sort of people that throw gays off roofs and the sort of people who murder innocent people trying to earn a day's wage. He really is scum.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 843
    HYUFD said:



    Even now the average age of first marriage is 29 and to become a first time buyer is 36, so it continues to be the case most voters will not start to consider voting Tory until their later thirties, as they did in 2015, or their 40s, as they did in 2017

    The problem is people can develop into patterns and they can develop dislikes that stick with them, even if in 5/10/20 years the Tories are matched perfectly to their views of a 30 year old they might still have that thing holding them back from voting Conservative...

    In the same way there are a group of voters who have/had a bias (rightly or wrongly) against Labour because of the 1970's we could have a voting group who have a bias (rightly or wrongly) against Conservatives because of the 2010's.

    The idea of Brexit tearing apart the Labour voting group has always been an optimistic one. It is not the big issue the same way it is for the Conservative coalition, it is very important to a small section of Labours vote many of whom would possibly vote Labour or abstain anyway.

    Considering its greater importance to their voters I think that the Conservatives will lose more voters in the next election due to Brexit, I can't see many of those who voted Conservative just to secure Brexit doing so again...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615

    HYUFD said:



    Even now the average age of first marriage is 29 and to become a first time buyer is 36, so it continues to be the case most voters will not start to consider voting Tory until their later thirties, as they did in 2015, or their 40s, as they did in 2017

    The problem is people can develop into patterns and they can develop dislikes that stick with them, even if in 5/10/20 years the Tories are matched perfectly to their views of a 30 year old they might still have that thing holding them back from voting Conservative...

    In the same way there are a group of voters who have/had a bias (rightly or wrongly) against Labour because of the 1970's we could have a voting group who have a bias (rightly or wrongly) against Conservatives because of the 2010's.

    The idea of Brexit tearing apart the Labour voting group has always been an optimistic one. It is not the big issue the same way it is for the Conservative coalition, it is very important to a small section of Labours vote many of whom would possibly vote Labour or abstain anyway.

    Considering its greater importance to their voters I think that the Conservatives will lose more voters in the next election due to Brexit, I can't see many of those who voted Conservative just to secure Brexit doing so again...
    Yet 42% voted Tory seven years into the 2010s, the highest Tory voteshare for 34 years and only a tiny fraction of those would even consider voting for a Corbyn led Labour Party
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    edited January 6
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we have our twat of the year on twitter.

    Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein MP for West Tyrone, filmed himself dancing around with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head, on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.

    He's a young idiot but I would still be making very detailed inquiries into his movements on the relevant day. It's useful to have the odd reminder from time to time of the sort of people Corbyn thought it was wise to be friends with. The sort of people that throw gays off roofs and the sort of people who murder innocent people trying to earn a day's wage. He really is scum.
    He's a middle-aged idiot, but I take your point.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we have our twat of the year on twitter.

    Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein MP for West Tyrone, filmed himself dancing around with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head, on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.

    He's a young idiot but I would still be making very detailed inquiries into his movements on the relevant day. It's useful to have the odd reminder from time to time of the sort of people Corbyn thought it was wise to be friends with. The sort of people that throw gays off roofs and the sort of people who murder innocent people trying to earn a day's wage. He really is scum.
    He's a middle-aged idiot, but I take your point.
    Well he was 10 at the time of the murders. Old enough to act as a look out? This is a man convicted for the false imprisonment of an alleged informer in 1992.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 922
    edited January 6
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    A Eurosceptic leader of a strongly remain party was the perfect balance for Labour.

    As it turned out. Labour successfully rode two horses. They simultaneously assured posh Tory Remainers in London and the South East that they'd oppose Brexit, while persuading Labour Leavers that they'd support it.
    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.
    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    If it was a "free hit" and not serious, then why has Corbyn's polling held up?

    I find no evidence to support your contention.
    Well, as we all know polls aren't entirely acccurate.

    But, at the very least it seems likely that in a GE campaign, based on current polling, the Conservatives would make it known that a Corbyn government would likely rely on SNP support and we all know that did for Ed Miliband within English constituencies.

    I still think there are a great many middle class remainers who are natural Conservative voters who are extremely turned off by the current government. However with Brexit done and dusted by 2022 and a new leader in place, I find it hard to believe that turkeys will vote for Christmas, which is what the middle classes would be doing if they let Corbyn in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,387

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
  • Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet to keep America OUT of The Second World War.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we have our twat of the year on twitter.

    Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein MP for West Tyrone, filmed himself dancing around with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head, on the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.

    He's a young idiot but I would still be making very detailed inquiries into his movements on the relevant day. It's useful to have the odd reminder from time to time of the sort of people Corbyn thought it was wise to be friends with. The sort of people that throw gays off roofs and the sort of people who murder innocent people trying to earn a day's wage. He really is scum.
    He's a middle-aged idiot, but I take your point.
    Well he was 10 at the time of the murders. Old enough to act as a look out? This is a man convicted for the false imprisonment of an alleged informer in 1992.
    In fairness to him, the Court accepted that he talked his fellow terrorists out of murdering their victim.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,387
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    The Battle of Asculum then.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 922
    Yorkcity said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:



    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.

    GE2017 was considered by many to be a "free hit" against the government. Remain Tories because they were sure Corbyn wouldn't get within a mile of winning, liberal and libertarian 'radical' Tories because of May's authoritarian streak and the "crush the saboteurs" nonsense and so forth.

    Corbyn will be unable to resist going into GE2022 (or sooner) with the triumphalist, one more push and we're over the line attitude (as demonstrated by his overconfidence backstage at Glastonbury), and the actual fear of a hard left socialist government will bring the middle classes and marginal seats back to the Tories in their droves.
    You seem as usual to underestimate him .He did not go into the last GE with any certainty at all .If I remember correctly people like you and me said he should not give May her election as the Labour party would be obliterated..That is why I treat your prediction as bull shine, maybe a bit of doubt in your understanding of future events would be welcome.
    Corbyn has done very well at getting the disaffected out to vote, but he has more or less reached the maximum number of converts at this point, and it's still not enough to put him over the line.

    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    What the Tories need to do is get Brexit out of the way with, hopefully, the minimum possible damage to the economy. They then need to demonstrate exactly why Labour would be disastrous for the economy - something they failed to do at GE2017, with the chancellor almost completely absent from the campaign. Couple this with a new leader who is from the moderate, liberal centre of the party as opposed to the authoritarian right (May), someone who understands the JAMS and wants to help them without taxing the rest of the economy to death - and you have an election winning formula. Of course if the Tories pick a right wing headbanger to go into 2022 all bets are off, but I'm pretty certain a moderate, centrist candidate from the Tory centre right would decimate a hard left Corbynite Labour party, that would pile up votes in existing strongholds and lose the marginals by a mile.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    Another example of Cameron’s duplicity. Clegg should, though, have pulled the Party out of the coalition after 2013.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,088
    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    Another example of Cameron’s duplicity. Clegg should, though, have pulled the Party out of the coalition after 2013.
    Why was it duplicity?

    Clegg and the Lib Dems were targeting Tory seats at the start of the coalition.

    Only their collapse in the polls stopped them pursuing those seats.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,904
    kyf_100 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:



    I'm not sure they did the former. I think some remainers in London and SE just wanted to vote against the Tories. Other than a few areas, voting Lib Dem was a waste of time.

    You seem as usual to underestimate him .He did not go into the last GE with any certainty at all .If I remember correctly people like you and me said he should not give May her election as the Labour party would be obliterated..That is why I treat your prediction as bull shine, maybe a bit of doubt in your understanding of future events would be welcome.
    Corbyn has done very well at getting the disaffected out to vote, but he has more or less reached the maximum number of converts at this point, and it's still not enough to put him over the line.

    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    What the Tories need to do is get Brexit out of the way with, hopefully, the minimum possible damage to the economy. They then need to demonstrate exactly why Labour would be disastrous for the economy - something they failed to do at GE2017, with the chancellor almost completely absent from the campaign. Couple this with a new leader who is from the moderate, liberal centre of the party as opposed to the authoritarian right (May), someone who understands the JAMS and wants to help them without taxing the rest of the economy to death - and you have an election winning formula. Of course if the Tories pick a right wing headbanger to go into 2022 all bets are off, but I'm pretty certain a moderate, centrist candidate from the Tory centre right would decimate a hard left Corbynite Labour party, that would pile up votes in existing strongholds and lose the marginals by a mile.
    You might be right if that is how it plays out. But the Labour Party has morphed a lot and is still changing. And Brexit is a radical change. The political landscape may not be what we are used to. 2022 might well be very different to what has gone before.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    When they are persuaded that Labour can't win in the UK as a whole. Corbyn's progress was, ironically, a step back for that. Labour will be Unionist for some time yet.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    FPT:
    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    The day that they decide to gift the SCons a monopoly of Unionist voters.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905

    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?

    Paddy was a remarkable party leader. His inheritance in 1988-89 after the disaster of the "merger" was as bad as Farron's in 2015 and in some ways worse. The new LD Party was dangerously close to bankruptcy in 1989 and it seemed after Richmond the Owenite SDP might overtake and survive better.

    Yet in 1992 the party kept 18% of the vote and in 1997, aided by the Conservative collapse, won 46 seats which was a huge step forward for the party though in fact meant little with the Labour landslide.

    Had IDS not been ousted by the Conservatives in late 2003, who knows what might have happened at the 2005 GE and afterward but, by choosing Howard, the Conservatives began their own journey back toward power.

    The late and much lamented Charles Kennedy shone on Iraq but failed to move the party forward in a host of other areas and prospered only during the long period of Conservative weakness until the coming of Cameron. That in turn led to the short-lived convergence of the liberal conservatives and the Orange Bookers which made the Coalition possible.

    The problem for the party ultimately was that in drawing votes from former Labour and former Conservative supporters when push came into shove working with one of the parties would alienate the opponents of that party within the LDs. The consequence of getting into Government was political suicide - perhaps but isn't politics about trying to get things done and your ideas for what's best for the country put into effect ? Sitting in futile Opposition with high poll ratings achieving nothing is the alternative and what's the point of that ?

    The party will recover - of that I'm certain - but it will take time and above all a bit of luck, that commodity which all politicians need and some seem to have in abundance.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,579
    Sean_F said:

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    The day that they decide to gift the SCons a monopoly of Unionist voters.
    Splitters, gotta love ‘em!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,304
    edited January 6

    FPT:
    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?

    It's because he is now demonstrating those qualities of moderation, vision and outreach which characteristise the very greatest statesmen, and especially in his Tweets where he makes thoughtful comments and engages with his opponents in a sincere manner that showcase his integrity, wisdom and desire to promote the common good.

    This post was made possible by a generous grant from the makers of sarcasm meters, who are hoping for a major bonus after yours all just exploded.

    Edit - more seriously I think the Trumpists are circling the wagons. If they believe he is the victim of a smear campaign they will rally behind him. They will also be deluded of course but that is another story.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135

    FPT:
    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?

    Isn't the US economy doing very well?

    As someone once said - It's the economy. Stupid.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    FPT:
    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?

    The US economy is performing well, and blue collar wages are rising, after years of stagnation.
  • Not sure that Brexit had much impact here in Stockton South. The Tory MP was disliked in the significant areas of the constituency he refused to be seen in, and our candidate was a local GP. Anyway, Wharton had been rather humiliated having being openly vocally in favour of staying the EU right up until the day before he won the back bench bill lottery...
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
    I believe it would have been the trigger for a proper realignment in British politics.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521
    edited January 6
    I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521

    FPT:
    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?

    More loons in the USA more like... Full Moon?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    kyf_100 said:



    Corbyn has done very well at getting the disaffected out to vote, but he has more or less reached the maximum number of converts at this point, and it's still not enough to put him over the line.

    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    (...snip for length)

    Of course if the Tories pick a right wing headbanger to go into 2022 all bets are off, but I'm pretty certain a moderate, centrist candidate from the Tory centre right would decimate a hard left Corbynite Labour party, that would pile up votes in existing strongholds and lose the marginals by a mile.

    It's in general mistaken to think of marginal constituencies as full of centrist floating voters. Some are, but quite a lot have lots of voters who move around without being especially centrist - they often vote on general impressions like "Time for a change" or "Don't let's take a risk". If Corbyn does well, the effect will be spread across most constituencies, rather than piled up in strongholds (and vice versa if he does badly).

    The current Labour objective is to establish itself in floating voters' minds as the alternative government. That's why Corbyn reiterates that he expects to be in power before too long - the point is not to act as Mystic Meg but to get people used to the idea. We have a solid 35-40% who are pretty keen to have Labour win: what's needed is the floating non-ideological voters who vary their votes to try each party in turn.

    There isn't much we can do to make the Brexit talks succeed or fail, and if they're seen as a wonderful success, thr Tories will win regardless. But after 12 years in power and difficlut Brexit negotiations, an awkward compromise and a divisive Tory leadership contest, it's quite likely that many floating voters will feel "OK, let's try the other lot". With respect, you're not the target voter here - if you voted Tory ever since (and before?) 1997, I don't think it's very likely you'll do anything else in 2022. But the idea that the average swing voter in marginals is zealously centrist and anti-Corbyn is IMO not correct.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,904
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
    And would have put an EU referendum off the agenda.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    Sean_F said:


    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.

    Of course there was plenty of history of that and there were those within the Party who kept predicting the Orange Bookers would switch en bloc to the Conservatives.

    Nick's emphasis from the start the Coalition was a one term thing and the Party would retain its independence helped hold the line but the memory of Sir John Simon and the National Liberals cast a long shadow.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,580

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
    I believe it would have been the trigger for a proper realignment in British politics.
    Yes, Ukip would have won 20% of the vote.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,512

    I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.

    Boris was right - we need a referendum once we know the terms
  • stodge said:

    Sean_F said:


    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.

    Of course there was plenty of history of that and there were those within the Party who kept predicting the Orange Bookers would switch en bloc to the Conservatives.

    Nick's emphasis from the start the Coalition was a one term thing and the Party would retain its independence helped hold the line but the memory of Sir John Simon and the National Liberals cast a long shadow.

    Looking at what happened to their seats, and what happened to their voters, seems reasonably clear that a fair proportion of yellow pox voters did indeed switch to the Tories
This discussion has been closed.