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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE1

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  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,474

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet to keep America OUT of The Second World War.
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler December 1941 decided to declare war on the United States which up to that time had remained neutral
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,474
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
    I believe it would have been the trigger for a proper realignment in British politics.
    Yes, Ukip would have won 20% of the vote.
    But no seats. Even when they were riding higher they struggled to make any progress in first past the post electionsi
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Its those moderate swing voters in Middle England marginals that will stop Corbyn from winning the next election. Its pointless to boost your vote percentage by piling up useless votes in seats you already hold but fail to win the marginal seats vital to getting a majority.

    I would say that Labour is right to have abandoned Blairism. Labour must be an alternative to the Tories and not a Tory lite party. It is right to have an alternative to austerity, and it is right for Labour to promise to end tuition fees and to nationalise the railways. To address the housing problem.

    But Corbyn himself is the biggest obstacle to general election victory that only be achieved by winning those marginals in Middle England. Corbyn/ Abbott and McDonnell are hard left extremists, and incompetent to boot who would like to go far beyond the mainstream manifesto of 2017. At heart they are manifesto of 83ers. They have no appeal to the moderate voters in Middle England marginals.

    Corbyn should go. He should be succeeded by a more voter friendly less hard left figure. Emily Thornberry has her faults but I would be happy with her as leader and I think she would win enough marginals to push Labour over the top. With Corbyn iits going to be a disappointing 2022 election
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 724
    kyf_100 said:



    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    That was 20 years ago though, we need the potential Conservative abstainers 20 years younger than you
    HYUFD said:


    Yet 42% voted Tory seven years into the 2010s, the highest Tory voteshare for 34 years and only a tiny fraction of those would even consider voting for a Corbyn led Labour Party

    I'm talking about the long term affect of the 10's the same way you had the long term affect from the 70's Labour had a large voting group still but there was a young-ish group that have been more against than for them ever since in voting terms.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218
    edited January 6
    How come Labour won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in his 2010 electoral disaster?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 724
    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,478

    I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.

    Boris was right - we need a referendum once we know the terms
    But what then?
    1. We accept -> status quo
    2. We reject -> we leave without a deal
    Or do you think that in Case 2 the EU would let us back in on the old terms? If they were to do that then it would encourage other states to try their luck. That would be anathema to the EU, after all their aim in the current negotiations is quite transparently to give a bad deal "pour encourager les autres" – i.e. to encourage them to stay.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468
    edited January 6

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    Never given Corbyn needs Scottish Labour and SNP MPs to beat the Tories, in England and Wales the Tories had a majority of 16 seats at the 2017 general election and in NI the DUP won a majority of seats and backed the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468
    stevef said:

    Its those moderate swing voters in Middle England marginals that will stop Corbyn from winning the next election. Its pointless to boost your vote percentage by piling up useless votes in seats you already hold but fail to win the marginal seats vital to getting a majority.

    I would say that Labour is right to have abandoned Blairism. Labour must be an alternative to the Tories and not a Tory lite party. It is right to have an alternative to austerity, and it is right for Labour to promise to end tuition fees and to nationalise the railways. To address the housing problem.

    But Corbyn himself is the biggest obstacle to general election victory that only be achieved by winning those marginals in Middle England. Corbyn/ Abbott and McDonnell are hard left extremists, and incompetent to boot who would like to go far beyond the mainstream manifesto of 2017. At heart they are manifesto of 83ers. They have no appeal to the moderate voters in Middle England marginals.

    Corbyn should go. He should be succeeded by a more voter friendly less hard left figure. Emily Thornberry has her faults but I would be happy with her as leader and I think she would win enough marginals to push Labour over the top. With Corbyn iits going to be a disappointing 2022 election

    Thornerry would both fail to enthuse the left as much as Corbyn while still turning off current Tory voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468

    kyf_100 said:



    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    That was 20 years ago though, we need the potential Conservative abstainers 20 years younger than you
    HYUFD said:


    Yet 42% voted Tory seven years into the 2010s, the highest Tory voteshare for 34 years and only a tiny fraction of those would even consider voting for a Corbyn led Labour Party

    I'm talking about the long term affect of the 10's the same way you had the long term affect from the 70's Labour had a large voting group still but there was a young-ish group that have been more against than for them ever since in voting terms.
    That only came after Labour lost the 1979 general election and moved to the left and there was a strong centrist alternative in the form of the SDP/Alliance.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    edited January 6

    I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.

    Boris was right - we need a referendum once we know the terms
    It's never going to be over. We need to get used to it.

    Arguably the debate for Britain's relationship with the EU has just begun properly . This is the new normal.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,818


    Looking at what happened to their seats, and what happened to their voters, seems reasonably clear that a fair proportion of yellow pox voters did indeed switch to the Tories

    "Yellow Pox" - classy response.

    I think a lot of things happened - looking at Sutton & Cheam in 2015 for example the fall in Paul Burstow's vote didn't lead to a rise in the Conservative vote share - indeed, that fell slightly. The vote shares of Labour, Greens and UKIP all rose suggesting the "coalition" that had backed the LDs in Sutton since 1997 had partially fragmented.

    A similar thing happened to Andrew George in St Ives but part of the collapse in Martin Horwood's vote in Cheltenham did go to the Conservatives.

    Yet look at Bath where the LD vote almost halved in 2015 - the key is the share that in 2015 went to the Green and in 2017 came back to Wera Hobhouse enabling her to recapture the seat leaving the Greens with the same vote share as in 2010.

    The collapse was universal - the distribution of the collapse much more variable.


  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,309

    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.

    I think it was Blair who said "if you run three general elections to the left of Labour and then end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem."

    Personally, I think a decent chunk of their vote was the NOTA vote. Ukip won a lot them in 2015 and I think Labour picked up some of them in 2017.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet to keep America OUT of The Second World War.
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler December 1941 decided to declare war on the United States which up to that time had remained neutral
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler invading Russia in June 1941.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet to keep America OUT of The Second World War.
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler December 1941 decided to declare war on the United States which up to that time had remained neutral
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler invading Russia in June 1941.
    Nowhere near as bad as appointing Toby Young
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 724
    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:



    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    That was 20 years ago though, we need the potential Conservative abstainers 20 years younger than you
    HYUFD said:


    Yet 42% voted Tory seven years into the 2010s, the highest Tory voteshare for 34 years and only a tiny fraction of those would even consider voting for a Corbyn led Labour Party

    I'm talking about the long term affect of the 10's the same way you had the long term affect from the 70's Labour had a large voting group still but there was a young-ish group that have been more against than for them ever since in voting terms.
    That only came after Labour lost the 1979 general election and moved to the left and there was a strong centrist alternative in the form of the SDP/Alliance.
    I'm thinking long term voting patterns rather than immediate responses in elections, were it not for SDP I imagine Labour would have pushed it closer but still lost.

    I was more thinking of that generations long term voting patterns and how it took Blair with his almost rejection of lots of left wing ideas/ideals and embracing many right wing ones to bring them onside or at least keep them happy to abstain.

    It didn't show straight away against Labour but it told over time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723
    Sarah Wollaston

    Verified account

    @sarahwollaston
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Cannot see how @toadmeister can remain in his new role at Office for Students as further evidence of wholly unacceptable past comments emerge. These kind of views simply incompatible with such a role
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    tlg86 said:

    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.

    I think it was Blair who said "if you run three general elections to the left of Labour and then end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem."

    Personally, I think a decent chunk of their vote was the NOTA vote. Ukip won a lot them in 2015 and I think Labour picked up some of them in 2017.
    +1

    The LDs screwed the pooch when they went back on their shibboleth policy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,818
    geoffw said:


    But what then?
    1. We accept -> status quo
    2. We reject -> we leave without a deal
    Or do you think that in Case 2 the EU would let us back in on the old terms? If they were to do that then it would encourage other states to try their luck. That would be anathema to the EU, after all their aim in the current negotiations is quite transparently to give a bad deal "pour encourager les autres" – i.e. to encourage them to stay.

    This has always been the problem for those advocating a referendum on the terms on the A50 Treaty - calling it a "second referendum" is deliberately misleading because it sounds as though we will be asked again the question of 23/6/16 which we won't.

    What happens if we reject the May/Davis A50 Treaty ? Well, it can mean whatever you like I suppose - some claim we would crash out without a deal, others would argue it would offer the EU a chance for more negotiation, others that it would stop us leaving the EU completely.

    Putting all those on the ballot could mean the decision is decided by one third or one quarter of the vote plus one which seems absurd. That's why it won't and probably can't happen.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,215
    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,022
    stodge said:


    Looking at what happened to their seats, and what happened to their voters, seems reasonably clear that a fair proportion of yellow pox voters did indeed switch to the Tories

    "Yellow Pox" - classy response.

    I think a lot of things happened - looking at Sutton & Cheam in 2015 for example the fall in Paul Burstow's vote didn't lead to a rise in the Conservative vote share - indeed, that fell slightly. The vote shares of Labour, Greens and UKIP all rose suggesting the "coalition" that had backed the LDs in Sutton since 1997 had partially fragmented.

    A similar thing happened to Andrew George in St Ives but part of the collapse in Martin Horwood's vote in Cheltenham did go to the Conservatives.

    Yet look at Bath where the LD vote almost halved in 2015 - the key is the share that in 2015 went to the Green and in 2017 came back to Wera Hobhouse enabling her to recapture the seat leaving the Greens with the same vote share as in 2010.

    The collapse was universal - the distribution of the collapse much more variable.


    I voted Lib, then LD because I believed ...... and still somehow believe ...... that they can provide a non-socialist progressive, more generous in spirit programme.
    The Coalition did, to my mind, many cruel things. The bedroom tax was only one.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,549
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.

    I think it was Blair who said "if you run three general elections to the left of Labour and then end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem."

    Personally, I think a decent chunk of their vote was the NOTA vote. Ukip won a lot them in 2015 and I think Labour picked up some of them in 2017.
    +1

    The LDs screwed the pooch when they went back on their shibboleth policy.
    Politics has in some way become generational rather than ideological. The Lib Dems did very well with those born after 1980. Tuition fees obviously caused them massive damage but also consider housing. This is generation rent and the Lib Dems did next to nothing for them for five years in government. People blame Cameron and Osborne for handing younger voters over to Corbyn on a plate by not doing something about declining home ownership - but what about the Lib Dems? It was even their target demographic!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,022

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.

    I think it was Blair who said "if you run three general elections to the left of Labour and then end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem."

    Personally, I think a decent chunk of their vote was the NOTA vote. Ukip won a lot them in 2015 and I think Labour picked up some of them in 2017.
    +1

    The LDs screwed the pooch when they went back on their shibboleth policy.
    Politics has in some way become generational rather than ideological. The Lib Dems did very well with those born after 1980. Tuition fees obviously caused them massive damage but also consider housing. This is generation rent and the Lib Dems did next to nothing for them for five years in government. People blame Cameron and Osborne for handing younger voters over to Corbyn on a plate by not doing something about declining home ownership - but what about the Lib Dems? It was even their target demographic!
    Agree
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,436
    DavidL said:

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    When they are persuaded that Labour can't win in the UK as a whole. Corbyn's progress was, ironically, a step back for that. Labour will be Unionist for some time yet.
    Not time to hand in your SLab badges quite yet then.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,549
    DavidL said:

    When will a Scottish Labour for Independence movement start in earnest?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15811186.What_is_the_point_of_a_Britain_that_has_simply_lost_its_way_/

    Time is running out for Westminster to take seriously Scotland’s growing impatience and the fact that Scots could vote for a different future. Brexit is overshadowing everything, but this will change. There is every prospect that the Scotland question will be reignited, but this time the debate will not just be about nationality, identity, and history, but will embrace the state of Britain, its apparent ungovernability, its broken politics, incompetent government and a Britain where constitutional principles and an effective democracy are sacrificed on the altar of outdated institutions, 19th-century attitudes and tribal politics.

    When they are persuaded that Labour can't win in the UK as a whole. Corbyn's progress was, ironically, a step back for that. Labour will be Unionist for some time yet.
    It's rather sad to be reading a comment in favour of Scottish independence and finding I agree with a lot of it. Britain has got to sort itself out. Is the will, leadership, intellectual rigour and imagination there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468

    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:



    He's too marmite - elections are won at least in part by being able to get your opponents to abstain - even if, for example, in '97 as a Conservative I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blair, I could imagine myself abstaining. Corbyn however - even if the Tories elected a senile codger who'd been caught on tape buggering squirrels I would still vote for the Conservative candidate to keep Corbyn out.

    That was 20 years ago though, we need the potential Conservative abstainers 20 years younger than you
    HYUFD said:


    Yet 42% voted Tory seven years into the 2010s, the highest Tory voteshare for 34 years and only a tiny fraction of those would even consider voting for a Corbyn led Labour Party

    I'm talking about the long term affect of the 10's the same way you had the long term affect from the 70's Labour had a large voting group still but there was a young-ish group that have been more against than for them ever since in voting terms.
    That only came after Labour lost the 1979 general election and moved to the left and there was a strong centrist alternative in the form of the SDP/Alliance.
    I'm thinking long term voting patterns rather than immediate responses in elections, were it not for SDP I imagine Labour would have pushed it closer but still lost.

    I was more thinking of that generations long term voting patterns and how it took Blair with his almost rejection of lots of left wing ideas/ideals and embracing many right wing ones to bring them onside or at least keep them happy to abstain.

    It didn't show straight away against Labour but it told over time.
    Except that followed the Winter of Discontent and Thatcher winning with a 7% voteshare lead in her first general election, unlike Corbyn who still lost his first. Don't forget either Foot's Labour had big poll leads over the Tories in 1980 and 1981, it was only as the economy began to grow and inflation started to fall and the Falklands War was won that Thatcher won the 1983 election.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    How come Labour won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in his 2010 electoral disaster?

    Because he piled up votes in seats Labour already held, but failed to appeal to moderates in Middle England Tory marginals.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,549
    stevef said:

    How come Labour won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in his 2010 electoral disaster?

    Because he piled up votes in seats Labour already held, but failed to appeal to moderates in Middle England Tory marginals.
    The Tory vote was also several points higher.
  • How come Labour won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in his 2010 electoral disaster?

    Because of Scotland.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,972
    edited January 6
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    I reckon if we'd have had a coupon election in 2015 the coalition would have won a landslide under FPTP.
    That would simply have turned the Lib Dems into a branch of the Coservative Party.
    I believe it would have been the trigger for a proper realignment in British politics.
    There would have been a load of Lib Dem MP's in place on the sufferance of the Conservative Party. That would have given the Lib Dems no future.
  • I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.

    Boris was right - we need a referendum once we know the terms
    as long as it's a choice between accepting the negotiated terms or leaving without a deal, then that's perfectly reasonable
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465
    edited January 6

    Toby Young is doomed.

    Where does it leave Johnson and Gove who strongly defended him, and what does May think about Johnson's past comments?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-women-gay-people-sexism-bumboys-totty-toby-young-2018-1
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813
    OGH misses the obvious answer to this question. Something that has been said on here many times before. Labour were able to win Leave voting seats because Corbyn played the perfect game of claiming (truthfully or otherwise) to being a Brexit supporter. They neutralised the Brexit question completely as far as the GE was concerned and that then allowed them to feed into the same discontent that had driven Brexit and use it against the ruling party.

    There is no mystery here. Not even why so many Leave supporters thought Labour were pro-Brexit. Corbyn played a blinder. I don't see how he will be able to repeat the trick again in 2022.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468
    stevef said:

    How come Labour won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in his 2010 electoral disaster?

    Because he piled up votes in seats Labour already held, but failed to appeal to moderates in Middle England Tory marginals.
    It is quite possible the Tories could win a majority of seats in England at the next general election but Corbyn becomes PM because of Labour and SNP MPs in Scotland
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468

    Toby Young is doomed.

    Where does it leave Johnson and Gove who strongly defended him, and what does May think about Johnson's past comments?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-women-gay-people-sexism-bumboys-totty-toby-young-2018-1
    Johnson is too powerful to be moved, she probably thinks the same about them as President Trump's remarks but can do little about it, Berlusconi has won many times in Italy and could well be Kingmaker again having made similar comments
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    Clutching at straws again.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    Phil Hammond is the Moeen Ali of the cabinet - no matter how crap he performs he just be dropped.
  • Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335

    OGH misses the obvious answer to this question. Something that has been said on here many times before. Labour were able to win Leave voting seats because Corbyn played the perfect game of claiming (truthfully or otherwise) to being a Brexit supporter. They neutralised the Brexit question completely as far as the GE was concerned and that then allowed them to feed into the same discontent that had driven Brexit and use it against the ruling party.

    There is no mystery here. Not even why so many Leave supporters thought Labour were pro-Brexit. Corbyn played a blinder. I don't see how he will be able to repeat the trick again in 2022.

    I don't think it will be relevant in 2022. Either we'll have reconsidered or we'll be out. Labour's line will be, as in 1945, "Now win the peace".
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    Clutching at straws again.
    It doesn’t really matter what referendum campaign spending uncovers because at the end of the day it was only an “advisory” referendum, as we have been told repeatedly

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335
    It sounds a bit "meh" as far as the general public goes, then - various people they've barely heard of moved around. But perhaps it will excite the Parliamentary party.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,034
    tlg86 said:

    The reason I voted Lib Dems prior to the coalition is they were the closest thing we had to a national left wing party. As someone who turned 11 in '97 and watched Blair win Labour didn't seem to be a left wing party.

    I heard someone else mention this as well, I wonder for how many millennials the Lib Dems were a left wing party in their mind?

    So as well as losing some of their more right wing voters to the Conservatives the image that a lot of younger voters had built up of the Lib Dems was shattered by the coalition.

    It would also help explain how Labour became more popular by moving to the left.

    I think it was Blair who said "if you run three general elections to the left of Labour and then end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem."

    Personally, I think a decent chunk of their vote was the NOTA vote. Ukip won a lot them in 2015 and I think Labour picked up some of them in 2017.
    I’m another one like Jezziah - LD until Clegg/coalition. I knew I couldn’t vote for them in 2015 but there was a reasonable chance I’d return at the next election- especially if Labour had tacked right as some were advocating...

    I suspect though your explanation of NOTA is a more major factor.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 724

    OGH misses the obvious answer to this question. Something that has been said on here many times before. Labour were able to win Leave voting seats because Corbyn played the perfect game of claiming (truthfully or otherwise) to being a Brexit supporter. They neutralised the Brexit question completely as far as the GE was concerned and that then allowed them to feed into the same discontent that had driven Brexit and use it against the ruling party.

    There is no mystery here. Not even why so many Leave supporters thought Labour were pro-Brexit. Corbyn played a blinder. I don't see how he will be able to repeat the trick again in 2022.

    The right party with remain can win those leave voting seats as there is no majority for another party with leave.

    In the same way many remain voting Tories will still vote remain or strong remain areas stayed strong Tory areas.

    As to individual voters despite differences on Brexit many are still willing to vote for a party, how many on here vote for a party despite a difference over Brexit?

    I imagine any leave voter who was really that determined would have already voted conservative.
  • Jonathan said:


    The LDs screwed the pooch when they went back on their shibboleth policy.

    An in-out EU referendum? Laughably they want one again now.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,034
    Looks like my prediction of no reshuffle will be the first to fail then.
    Not sure I see the point of it if she isn’t going to move any big beasts.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,549
    Anything on Blair in the Sundays? I thought we might get some more on his counsel to Supreme Leader Trump - in particular about British plots to spy on him.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Excellent - will encourage them to buy British instead .
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    In all seriousness I don't get this.

    VAT is an EU tax. Any VAT registered company inside the EU is supposed to knock VAT off any cost of their goods when selling to a company outside the EU. That is how it works now and that is how it will, presumably, be supposed to work after we leave the EU. If I charge VAT on services or goods when (for example) I work in or sell into Norway the I am breaking the law.

    Whatever new arrangements the Government put in place for sales taxes in the UK post Brexit, if they are more onerous than the current arrangements that is not the fault of us leaving the EU. It is up to the Government to make sure they are fit for purpose.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813

    OGH misses the obvious answer to this question. Something that has been said on here many times before. Labour were able to win Leave voting seats because Corbyn played the perfect game of claiming (truthfully or otherwise) to being a Brexit supporter. They neutralised the Brexit question completely as far as the GE was concerned and that then allowed them to feed into the same discontent that had driven Brexit and use it against the ruling party.

    There is no mystery here. Not even why so many Leave supporters thought Labour were pro-Brexit. Corbyn played a blinder. I don't see how he will be able to repeat the trick again in 2022.

    The right party with remain can win those leave voting seats as there is no majority for another party with leave.

    In the same way many remain voting Tories will still vote remain or strong remain areas stayed strong Tory areas.

    As to individual voters despite differences on Brexit many are still willing to vote for a party, how many on here vote for a party despite a difference over Brexit?

    I imagine any leave voter who was really that determined would have already voted conservative.
    There will be a significant number of previous UKIP supporting voters who were only persuaded to vote Labour because they thought Brexit was a non issue and would not be thwarted. Just as Corbyn claimed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    rkrkrk said:

    Looks like my prediction of no reshuffle will be the first to fail then.
    Not sure I see the point of it if she isn’t going to move any big beasts.
    I did exactly the same thing this morning. Again.

    It seems that intent leaks from May's Government. Nothing than happens for weeks and weeks (whilst speculation grows) until she makes up her mind.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Import VAT only puts the importer, VAT-wise, in the position of someone who had purchased those same goods within the UK. That is of course the case for 99% of businesses already.

    It is intereting to me that another system operates for imports in the first place.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083
    I hope Raab makes it into the cabinet and Kemi Badenoch gets a ministerial job.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426
    rkrkrk said:

    Looks like my prediction of no reshuffle will be the first to fail then.
    Not sure I see the point of it if she isn’t going to move any big beasts.
    It's not the reshuffle I have a problem with, it is the manner of the reshuffle
  • MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
    Think of Star Wars as an analogy for Brexit.

    A trade bloc becomes an evil political empire.

    Our heroes, like Brexiteers, fight the good fight to beat the evil empire.
  • Chris Grayling as First Secretary of State.

    Seriously I give up, that bell end has blood on his hands.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226

    Chris Grayling as First Secretary of State.

    Seriously I give up, that bell end has blood on his hands.

    :o what did he do?
  • RobD said:

    Chris Grayling as First Secretary of State.

    Seriously I give up, that bell end has blood on his hands.

    :o what did he do?
    Worst Justice Secretary ever.

    Prison suicides increased a lot under his watch because of his policies.

    His ban on books helped contribute to that, it was a litany of mistakes from him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,869
    Surprised that Portsmouth South and Bedford voted Leave. It must have been very close in those two.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218

    In all seriousness I don't get this.

    VAT is an EU tax. Any VAT registered company inside the EU is supposed to knock VAT off any cost of their goods when selling to a company outside the EU. That is how it works now and that is how it will, presumably, be supposed to work after we leave the EU. If I charge VAT on services or goods when (for example) I work in or sell into Norway the I am breaking the law.

    Whatever new arrangements the Government put in place for sales taxes in the UK post Brexit, if they are more onerous than the current arrangements that is not the fault of us leaving the EU. It is up to the Government to make sure they are fit for purpose.

    VAT isn't an EU tax, it's a UK tax which is EU-compatible and EU-mandated.

    The issue is not exports, but imports. Currently if you are a business which imports something from outside the EU, you have to pay VAT on it immediately. This of course is a VAT input so it's not a cost for a VAT-registered business, but it is a cash-flow issue because you pay the VAT now on the import but there may be a delay of up to four months before you get the input tax back in your VAT return. The complaint is that this will now apply to imports from the EU27.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723
    "I am a stable genius" FFS

    More like a yr old
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
    I am with you on that. Same story every time, and the comedy robots and anthropomorphised animals may have been clever and funny back in the 70s, but nowadays they give me the same embarrassed unease as watching a repeat of the Black & White Minstrel Show would. The only thing that changes is the length of the fecking things; 2 hours and 35 minutes ferfecksake. And further trilogies in the works, I understand.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Leaving the EU means leaving the EU shocker?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    Mortimer said:

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Leaving the EU means leaving the EU shocker?
    This is outrageous! We were never told voting leave would mean leaving the EU! :o
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    By the skin of her teeth.

    If Ruth Davidson hadn't outperformed, we'd now have no stable Government at all.
  • So Mrs May isn't giving the country the vote to end the ban on foxhunting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    You’ve had a thread on the investigation into Leave.EU’s finances I believe

    Are we going to get one on the investigation into the Remain campaign’s finances?
    Or one on the fine already issued to the LD's? Maybe when hell freezes over.
    That one’s scheduled after the thread on Michael Brown: probably the most immoral behaviour by a major political party in living memory
    Is he still alive?
    As an often, although less so nowadays, LD voter I’ve no doubt the money should have been paid back.
    Don’t know - he’d only be 51 so I’d assume so
    Living on what’s left and whatever else he can cobble together in the Dominican Republic, I assume. Reflecting on my time with Libs and LD’s I don’t seem to have come across a higher number of dodgy characters than in other parties; it’s just that they represent a higher percentage!
    The Liberals in the Seventies had some remarkable people in their senior ranks.
    One of the people in politics I’m really, really sorry for is Paddy Ashdown. Building on, in particular David Steel’s work he was really close to a real breakthrough.
    Now?
    in a way, I feel sorry for Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems didn't deserve the massacre of 2015.
    There's no justice in politics.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    edited January 6
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Leaving the EU means leaving the EU shocker?
    This is outrageous! We were never told voting leave would mean leaving the EU! :o
    The hyperbole in that article is hilarious.

    'Controversial'

    'acute' and 'huge'

    I mean, good grief, how do firms survive that have to import from outside of the EU, right?

    Wonder where the 130k number comes from.
  • Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    By the skin of her teeth.

    If Ruth Davidson hadn't outperformed, we'd now have no stable Government at all.
    I still have nightmares about election night.

    Before we had any Scottish results it felt like we were on course for a Rainbow Alliance government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet to keep America OUT of The Second World War.
    A bigger strategic blunder was Hitler December 1941 decided to declare war on the United States which up to that time had remained neutral
    Other than honouring the spirit of the Axis pact, it made no sense at all.

    Japan didn't bother declaring war against the Soviet Union.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,549
    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope Raab makes it into the cabinet and Kemi Badenoch gets a ministerial job.

    I admit as a liberal that I find Badenoch interesting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Jonathan said:

    I have no idea why the leave/remain argument continues.. Its all over, the fat lady sang,. We are leaving.

    Boris was right - we need a referendum once we know the terms
    It's never going to be over. We need to get used to it.

    Arguably the debate for Britain's relationship with the EU has just begun properly . This is the new normal.
    Spot on. As usual, you speak a lot of sense.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218

    So Mrs May isn't giving the country the vote to end the ban on foxhunting.

    What's Liam done this time?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Leave and Mrs May.

    But not quite first enough for Mrs. May and Leave's spending has still to be cleared by two investigations.
    Clutching at straws again.
    Who is going to clear Remain's spending?

    https://order-order.com/2017/12/28/remain-campaign-flouted-rules-to-spend-double-legal-limit/

    https://order-order.com/2017/12/29/remain-campaigns-coordinated-spending/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    May shouldn't give into the forces of the Left demanding Toby Young's head (his tweets are just an excuse) but probably will.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    By the skin of her teeth.

    If Ruth Davidson hadn't outperformed, we'd now have no stable Government at all.
    I still have nightmares about election night.

    Before we had any Scottish results it felt like we were on course for a Rainbow Alliance government.
    They were the worst 5 weeks of my life.

    The first chapter of Tim Shipman's (excellent) book "Fall Out" is called 'four minutes to ten'.

    I'll never forget that moment for the rest of my life.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977

    So Mrs May isn't giving the country the vote to end the ban on foxhunting.

    I am desperately upset about that, as a passionate hunt supporter, but the game is up.

    You can't win when 85% of the country is against you, and even a majority of Tory members.

    That doesn't mean I agree with it (I never will) but, for now, there's no real alternative.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218

    MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
    "Amazing. Every word of what you just said was wrong!"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Mortimer said:

    Another Brexit bonus?

    More than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.

    The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.

    Labour and Tory MPs and peers said that the only way to avoid the VAT Brexit penalty would be to stay in the customs union or negotiate to remain in the EU-VAT area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/06/vat-upfront-after-brexit-uk-imports

    Leaving the EU means leaving the EU shocker?
    There will clearly be big administrative and legislative changes from leaving the EU.

    As usual, I'd wait for all the details before getting too excited, particularly from a Remain supporting newspaper.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    By the skin of her teeth.

    If Ruth Davidson hadn't outperformed, we'd now have no stable Government at all.
    I still have nightmares about election night.

    Before we had any Scottish results it felt like we were on course for a Rainbow Alliance government.
    They were the worst 5 weeks of my life.

    The first chapter of Tim Shipman's (excellent) book "Fall Out" is called 'four minutes to ten'.

    I'll never forget that moment for the rest of my life.
    Just got this as a birthday pressie - might have to interrupt my reading of Sapiens to get cracking with it tonight...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,950

    In all seriousness I don't get this.

    VAT is an EU tax. Any VAT registered company inside the EU is supposed to knock VAT off any cost of their goods when selling to a company outside the EU. That is how it works now and that is how it will, presumably, be supposed to work after we leave the EU. If I charge VAT on services or goods when (for example) I work in or sell into Norway the I am breaking the law.

    Whatever new arrangements the Government put in place for sales taxes in the UK post Brexit, if they are more onerous than the current arrangements that is not the fault of us leaving the EU. It is up to the Government to make sure they are fit for purpose.

    VAT isn't an EU tax, it's a UK tax which is EU-compatible and EU-mandated.

    The issue is not exports, but imports. Currently if you are a business which imports something from outside the EU, you have to pay VAT on it immediately. This of course is a VAT input so it's not a cost for a VAT-registered business, but it is a cash-flow issue because you pay the VAT now on the import but there may be a delay of up to four months before you get the input tax back in your VAT return. The complaint is that this will now apply to imports from the EU27.
    Wait a second, where do you get that from?

    If you import from outside the EU then there is no VAT to pay unless the nation that exports it demands VAT. I pay a monthyl subscription for software licensing from America, as America has no VAT there is no VAT to pay on payment of the good - then equally of course no VAT to reclaim when I file my VAT return.

    It was my understanding that similarly there was no VAT on exports to outside the EU. If a company in the EU exports to America it was my understanding that no VAT applied. Surely once we exit that should be the case to us too unless a deal is made to say otherwise?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
    I am with you on that. Same story every time, and the comedy robots and anthropomorphised animals may have been clever and funny back in the 70s, but nowadays they give me the same embarrassed unease as watching a repeat of the Black & White Minstrel Show would. The only thing that changes is the length of the fecking things; 2 hours and 35 minutes ferfecksake. And further trilogies in the works, I understand.
    I've been roped into watching it with friends next week.

    I will put on a brave face, but suspect it'll be an evening I'll never get back.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218

    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope Raab makes it into the cabinet and Kemi Badenoch gets a ministerial job.

    I admit as a liberal that I find Badenoch interesting.
    I stayed at Badenoch Aviemore in summer 1989.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,309
    Does anyone else think Trump is in on this book thing?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,474
    AndyJS said:

    Surprised that Portsmouth South and Bedford voted Leave. It must have been very close in those two.

    Both were very similar to national result 52-48 to Leave

  • tysontyson Posts: 4,370

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    For the same reason, the LibDems failed to get 48 per cent of the vote as the party of Remainer-dom.

    Labour -- and especially Jeremy -- very successfully turned the election into one that was not about Brexit, but about austerity and the divide between rich and poor.

    It was a very unusual election. It was Jeremy’s Finest Hour.

    May completely failing to define what Brexit would be in an election called to give her a Brexit mandate must surely go down as the greatest strategic blunder since some famouse historical battle or something.
    Almost, not quite. She did scrape a sort of win, rather than going down to defeat.
    By the skin of her teeth.

    If Ruth Davidson hadn't outperformed, we'd now have no stable Government at all.
    I still have nightmares about election night.

    Before we had any Scottish results it felt like we were on course for a Rainbow Alliance government.
    They were the worst 5 weeks of my life.

    The first chapter of Tim Shipman's (excellent) book "Fall Out" is called 'four minutes to ten'.

    I'll never forget that moment for the rest of my life.</blockquote

    Mate...you need to live a little if the worst weeks of your life involved a slightly adverse election result...some people kind of suffer a bit more comrade like for instance when you have a heart attack or life threatening episode and die whilst waiting for an ambulance or hospital bed......



  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Harmys-STAR-WARS-Despecialized-Edition-HD-V27-MKV-IS-OUT-NOW/id/12713

    Absolutely the best way to watch Star Wars. A bit of a mission to download, and please ensure that you own the Blu-ray before doing so. An absolute pleasure to watch without all of the idiotic Lucas additions.

    On that subject, I've discovered a link between people who love iPhones and people who are happy about the Lucas additions to the original trilogy. They also seem to be the same people who swear that The Last Jedi is the best one as well...

    I can't get into Star Wars.

    And, yes, I know I'm never supposed to admit that. But, I can't.
    I am with you on that. Same story every time, and the comedy robots and anthropomorphised animals may have been clever and funny back in the 70s, but nowadays they give me the same embarrassed unease as watching a repeat of the Black & White Minstrel Show would. The only thing that changes is the length of the fecking things; 2 hours and 35 minutes ferfecksake. And further trilogies in the works, I understand.
    I've been roped into watching it with friends next week.

    I will put on a brave face, but suspect it'll be an evening I'll never get back.
    "The greatest teacher, failure is!"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    edited January 6

    RobD said:

    Chris Grayling as First Secretary of State.

    Seriously I give up, that bell end has blood on his hands.

    :o what did he do?
    Worst Justice Secretary ever.

    Prison suicides increased a lot under his watch because of his policies.

    His ban on books helped contribute to that, it was a litany of mistakes from him.
    In the Transport sector, he's considered a bit of an arsehole (he gives his civil servants a hard time) but also respected as someone who's at least passionate about transport, engages with the subject and has a clear vision and strategy for it.

    Just before Christmas I spoke to a member of the Board of Network Rail who said he pissed them all off when he referred to them in the media as "the blob".

    He said, "Look, I'm a Tory secretary of state. I have to give you lot in the public sector a hard time."
This discussion has been closed.