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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reshuffle has left TMay weaker but has it hastened her dep

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reshuffle has left TMay weaker but has it hastened her departure?

The former shadow CON minister and head of ConHome, Paul Goodman, has given his damning verdict on the reshuffle under the heading “The worst-handled reshuffle in recent history – perhaps ever”.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 743
    First!
  • She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,836
    Gadfly said:

    First!

    Among equals....

    Which is not exactly a compliment when looking at the members of the cabinet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    edited January 10
    Hunt is interesting. If he can pull off surviving NHS for another couple of years and deliver a working policy on the future of social care and its funding then maybe he will appear the obvious capable candidate by 2019/20?
  • Heck even Nick Soames and John Redwood are criticising her.

    The only leader Soames has criticised is IDS
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470

    She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    I think it has hastened her departure in that it will have revived the determination in the party not to have her leading the Tories into another GE campaign. May has some strengths but she also has catastrophic weaknesses in the areas of political management and these were highlighted yet again by the botched reshuffle.

    I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135

    Heck even Nick Soames and John Redwood are criticising her.

    The only leader Soames has criticised is IDS

    Didn't he criticize Dave for holding an "In/Out" EU referendum? ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,816
    Theresa May remains the human incarnation of faute de mieux. One consequence of the nonshuffle is that little fresh blood was brought into the Cabinet. That means that if Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister in 2019 from within the Conservative ranks after the Brexit negotiations are concluded, as many expect, the longshots are going to suffer with a real credibility problem. How can they be seen as ready to serve on day one without the blessing of the electorate?

    If you think that 2019 is the year she will be replaced, look within the Cabinet for your possibles, probably at the highest ranks. So that means Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd and maybe Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and David Lidington (who is looking like her effective deputy and will attract much more attention in the year ahead) are the ones to consider.

    For me, that list is in increasing order of value.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Heck even Nick Soames and John Redwood are criticising her.

    The only leader Soames has criticised is IDS

    Didn't he criticize Dave for holding an "In/Out" EU referendum? ;)
    Soames is even more loyal to Dave than I am.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Conservatives desperately need a better leader. An average one would be a vast improvement.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135
    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470

    Conservatives desperately need a better leader. An average one would be a vast improvement.

    I think, desparately in terms of "100%", but not necessarily desperately as in "now".

    Let May run for the next year or two and have a succession then. She will have been PM for 3 to 4 years, nothing particularly remarkable about that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749
    No, the timeframe is still 2019. I don't see how she can hold on after Brexit unless the deal involves the EU giving us £350m per week for 10 years to spend on the NHS.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,804
    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Some good economic news on manufacturing:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42633502
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,262
    TGOHF said:

    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
    +1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Mr. Eagles, Hunt and Mordaunt would be better (for my wallet).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470
    TGOHF said:

    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
    I have no idea, but he seemed pretty happy about the appointment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135
    edited January 10

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
  • TGOHF said:

    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
    I have no idea, but he seemed pretty happy about the appointment.
    Well he would say that wouldn’t he?

    He’s not going to say I’m peed off with this move.

    He really should be in the cabinet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    TGOHF said:

    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
    It's a possibility. Although he is so a future Foreign Sec, that it maybe not worth the bother of other departments. Someone mentioned he had an interest in prisons yesterday. But seems like a place to lose a career when a couple of major riots break out.

    Still ranks as very odd to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    edited January 10

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    I stuck a few pounds on her a while back just in case really. I can't see it myself. Does she have a following of any description within Tory MPs? I don't know.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749
    I don't understand why Kwasi isn't getting a look in, he needs a big job, and I'm not just saying that because it's good for my book.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,236
    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    Oh yes. Now that she has stumbled into the cabinet by accident she will be able to build her profile in parliament and in the country. Expect to see her on Marr etc. on a regular basis. She is more of an heir to Thatch than May ever was.

    Any betting person who didn't shower a few quid in her direction on Monday evening has missed a trick.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    Morning all :)

    The Conservative Party knows the first rule of politics - you either hang together or you'll all hang separately and Stodge's second rule of politics:

    "Parties change leaders when there is a clear alternative and when that alternative is clearly more popular than the incumbent and will safeguard the jobs of MPs in marginal seats"

    At the moment, May isn't doing that badly and no obvious alternative is doing that much better.

    This wasn't the case with Thatcher in 1990 but it was the case with Major in 1995.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798

    TGOHF said:

    If you were training Rory for higher office , wouldn't you want to give him more breadth ?
    I have no idea, but he seemed pretty happy about the appointment.
    Well he would say that wouldn’t he?

    He’s not going to say I’m peed off with this move.

    He really should be in the cabinet.
    :+1: :+1:
  • MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Kwasi isn't getting a look in, he needs a big job, and I'm not just saying that because it's good for my book.

    Too much of a threat to Theresa.

    She can’t have her junior ministers outshining her.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135
    edited January 10

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    Oh yes. Now that she has stumbled into the cabinet by accident she will be able to build her profile in parliament and in the country. Expect to see her on Marr etc. on a regular basis. She is more of an heir to Thatch than May ever was.

    Indeed. ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    Oh yes. Now that she has stumbled into the cabinet by accident she will be able to build her profile in parliament and in the country. Expect to see her on Marr etc. on a regular basis. She is more of an heir to Thatch than May ever was.

    Any betting person who didn't shower a few quid in her direction on Monday evening has missed a trick.
    I got on at 80 a while back. But still available at around 38 on BF.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    I stuck a few pounds on her a while back just in case really. I can't see it myself. Does she have a following of any description within Tory MPs? I don't know.
    She’s popular, she’s got a lot of fans for the way she dealt with the vile abuse she had to deal with in 2015.

    She’s a bit to social conservative for my tastes but her fan club includes George Osborne and Bill Cash.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Kwasi isn't getting a look in, he needs a big job, and I'm not just saying that because it's good for my book.

    Too much of a threat to Theresa.

    She can’t have her junior ministers outshining her.
    What I don't understand is how she can even begin to think that she'll be able to stay on after Brexit is done. She should be using these next two years to rebuild the front bench and promote 2010/2015 intake to the Cabinet so party can move on and get a leader who will be able to take us forwards.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    On matters A50 (he says doubtfully).

    My limited knowledge of the CETA deal is that's very good for manufacturing but not for services and agriculture and while that doesn't bother Canada that much it would certainly bother us.

    I've heard talk of a CETA plus which is presumably CETA but with a good deal for UK services (notably, I presume, financial services) and some other areas.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,496
    May is a prisoner of the Party.

    She is only in post because they can't agree A.N.Other to replace her.

    Yet.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 86
    I put a bit on Gauke after he was mentioned on here. Justice may add to his impression of reliability, but perhaps doesn’t raise his profile.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,236

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    I stuck a few pounds on her a while back just in case really. I can't see it myself. Does she have a following of any description within Tory MPs? I don't know.
    She’s popular, she’s got a lot of fans for the way she dealt with the vile abuse she had to deal with in 2015.

    She’s a bit to social conservative for my tastes but her fan club includes George Osborne and Bill Cash.
    Plus of course the former #Priti4Leader campaign has now re-emerged as the #Esther4Leader campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361

    Some good economic news on manufacturing:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42633502

    There are an increasing number of straws in the wind suggesting that the UK economy is picking up steam again. Unlike previous depreciations it does seem as if the one suffered last year has genuinely helped in rebalancing the economy.

    I dug out my 2017 economic predictions. I think all I can usefully say is ouch:

    2.2% growth.
    An improvement in our balance of payments (albeit not by much).
    Inflation to stay below 2.5%.
    Base rates to stay below 1%, just.
    Mortgage rates to barely move (again).
    The government borrowing figures to surprise on the upside (ie better than currently forecast).
    Unemployment to remain broadly static.
    Wages to grow by 2% in real terms.
    Slightly better growth in the EZ on the back of a more expansive policy by the ECB (possibly using Brexit as an excuse)

    We have seen an improvement in BoP, government borrowing did surprise on the upside and there was better growth in the EZ. Unemployment has fallen a bit but not by much. Growth and wage growth were wildly optimistic. They are connected of course.

    For 2018 I would forecast:
    1.6% growth
    Continuing improvement in balance of payments
    Falling inflation down to 1.8% by year end
    Base rates to increase to 1% by year end
    Government borrowing figures to continue to surprise on upside
    Unemployment to remain static with decline in employment growth
    Wages to start growing in real terms by mid year, mainly due to falling inflation.

    Slightly more cautious but steady as she goes.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Kwasi isn't getting a look in, he needs a big job, and I'm not just saying that because it's good for my book.

    Too much of a threat to Theresa.

    She can’t have her junior ministers outshining her.
    What I don't understand is how she can even begin to think that she'll be able to stay on after Brexit is done. She should be using these next two years to rebuild the front bench and promote 2010/2015 intake to the Cabinet so party can move on and get a leader who will be able to take us forwards.
    She still listens to Nick Timothy, I bet he's telling she can lead the Tories at the next election.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749
    On Kwasi, there was a perfect opening for him at BEIS after Hunt refused the move, given that she wanted to get rid of Greg Clark. He's suitable for the position and he would bring much more profile to the role, which is exactly what we need given the country's situation with the horrendous current account deficit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    I stuck a few pounds on her a while back just in case really. I can't see it myself. Does she have a following of any description within Tory MPs? I don't know.
    She’s popular, she’s got a lot of fans for the way she dealt with the vile abuse she had to deal with in 2015.

    Imagine an Esther Vs Corbyn/McDonnell election in 2022... The abuse that could be thrown at her will be incredible!

    One other thing that is in Esther's favour is that given her background in television she won't be hiding the sofa when the TV debates are taking place... Unlike you know who... ;)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Kwasi isn't getting a look in, he needs a big job, and I'm not just saying that because it's good for my book.

    Too much of a threat to Theresa.

    She can’t have her junior ministers outshining her.
    What I don't understand is how she can even begin to think that she'll be able to stay on after Brexit is done. She should be using these next two years to rebuild the front bench and promote 2010/2015 intake to the Cabinet so party can move on and get a leader who will be able to take us forwards.
    She still listens to Nick Timothy, I bet he's telling she can lead the Tories at the next election.
    I'm still sure he's a Labour plant. No one can be so fucking stupid, it has to be malicious.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    DavidL said:

    I think it has hastened her departure in that it will have revived the determination in the party not to have her leading the Tories into another GE campaign. May has some strengths but she also has catastrophic weaknesses in the areas of political management and these were highlighted yet again by the botched reshuffle.

    I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.

    Re your post on the last thread:-

    UK manufacturing has achieved more growth in the past 18 months than it achieved in the previous 16 years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Mr. Eagles, indeed.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,110

    She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
    Archie Norman came into the Commons with an established record as a well respected and dynamic business leader who might be expeceted to progress to be Conservative leader. However, it transpired that leadership skills in business are not the same as leadership skills in politics and he was unable to prosper.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 549
    edited January 10



    Gloriously naive - are you a civil servant negotiating for the UK?

    What will happen is this - the EU will agree a very woolly 'political declaration' on trade that will promise to consider services access in an FTA. The UK will sign the A50 agreement. Then, when the real negotiations begin, the EU will announce that they cannot get unanimous agreement on services (or pretty much anything else that favours the UK) and that we can take a deal that is for goods only, which is totally in the EUs favour. The UK will complain but will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty and it is not ljnked to ratification of the FTA. If we refuse we will get no deal but still be liable for the money.

    Why on Earth would the EU NOT behave in this way? It is our fault for agreeing that the Brexit bill and the trade talks were not linked. This is the truth about the sellout that May has inflicted upon the UK.

    "......will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty"

    We have been told this is not a legal obligation but a moral obligation. One moral obligation deserves another. It is a quid pro quo. It's Tit for Tat. It's a negotiation.
    You have missed the point. Right now, the Brexit bill is not a legal liability as you say as it does not exist under any treaty. However, when we sign the A50 agreement it will become a legal liability enforceable under UK law, since we have agreed that the treaty will have direct effect and we have agreed that the payment of the bill will form part of the treaty.

    However, the EUs obligations to enter into a trade deal will NOT be a legal liability - it will only be a 'political declaration'. So whatever we agree with the EU now regarding trade they can roll back after Brexit but we have to pay the bill regardless. This is the position our traitorous civil service has hoisted upon us.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,249

    Theresa May remains the human incarnation of faute de mieux. One consequence of the nonshuffle is that little fresh blood was brought into the Cabinet. That means that if Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister in 2019 from within the Conservative ranks after the Brexit negotiations are concluded, as many expect, the longshots are going to suffer with a real credibility problem. How can they be seen as ready to serve on day one without the blessing of the electorate?

    If you think that 2019 is the year she will be replaced, look within the Cabinet for your possibles, probably at the highest ranks. So that means Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd and maybe Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and David Lidington (who is looking like her effective deputy and will attract much more attention in the year ahead) are the ones to consider.

    For me, that list is in increasing order of value.

    Lidington vs Thornberry at PMQs will be interesting. Otherwise not much has changed. Any of the big beasts can force a leadership challenge but none of them can be sure of winning it: an unstable equilibrium. If the polls really turn against the Conservatives then Boris will look more attractive as the only proven election (and referendum) winner on offer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it has hastened her departure in that it will have revived the determination in the party not to have her leading the Tories into another GE campaign. May has some strengths but she also has catastrophic weaknesses in the areas of political management and these were highlighted yet again by the botched reshuffle.

    I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.

    Re your post on the last thread:-

    UK manufacturing has achieved more growth in the past 18 months than it achieved in the previous 16 years.
    The march of the makers (slightly belatedly).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470

    She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
    Archie Norman came into the Commons with an established record as a well respected and dynamic business leader who might be expeceted to progress to be Conservative leader. However, it transpired that leadership skills in business are not the same as leadership skills in politics and he was unable to prosper.
    Across the whole 2015 intake I would have said two possible Tory leaders. One is James Cleverly, who May has appointed to CCHQ, and the other is BoJo which is cheating.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Mr. Max, some men are capable of incredible ill-judgement. He may want redemption for the dementia tax catastrophe and see a May victory as providing that.
  • She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
    Archie Norman came into the Commons with an established record as a well respected and dynamic business leader who might be expeceted to progress to be Conservative leader. However, it transpired that leadership skills in business are not the same as leadership skills in politics and he was unable to prosper.
    Across the whole 2015 intake I would have said two possible Tory leaders. One is James Cleverly, who May has appointed to CCHQ, and the other is BoJo which is cheating.
    You need to add Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer to that list.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    edited January 10
    I would say, barring health or other unplanned issues or a desire to step down, Mrs May is safe until at least 2020 when the "transition" deal is supposed to complete.

    For the detail of the "three buckets" approach to the Brexit deal, supposedly getting the interest of the UK government, read section 4, EU-UK Regulatory partnership here. The UK would start this scheme in full alignment with the other EU members with current payments and Freedom of Movement, Customs Union etc. Moving forward it would commit to continuing certain parts of the EU acquis; it would disengage in a managed way on other parts; there would be a middle part where the UK would become independent of the rules but remain aligned, with an agreed cost to the UK to do so. I imagine the EU would be happy with part 1 - full implementation of parts of the acquis. They should also be OK with the UK disengaging other parts, provided they were agreed in advance and especially if they are outside the Single Market acquis. The middle bucket is the tricky one. I think the EU will be very reluctant to allow unilateral disengagement by the UK and would want to control it.

    The big advantages of the "three buckets" approach are that it is quick to agree because there is no initial change, and that it delays the cliff edge indefinitely. It allows potential divergence. In reality we would likely remain in the Single Market. If we have any sense we will stay in the Customs Union too as it eases trade with our by far biggest partner and our best available third party deals are replicas of the third party deals we already have through the EU.

    Will it happen? Once you realise Brexit is entirely a rhetorical exercise with unwelcome real consequences, things slip into place. The important negotiation is to get the EU to agree to pretend the UK is a free agent. The UK government can also claim the UK third party deals are better than the original EU ones they simulate, even though they will be more limited, because these are UK deals and those are EU ones.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit
  • So what will Corbyn go for at PMQs?

    Housing?

    Mrs May too weak to move ministers?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    Theresa May has calculated (probably rightly, in my view) that the risks of putting 1-2 extra rebels on the backbenches is outweighed by the need to rejuvenate the structures of the Conservative Party, improve domestic administration, and present a more diverse face to the electorate post-Brexit, one or two may also have the requisite experience by then to make a pitch for leader. let's face it: none of Johnson, Hammond, Davis, Rees-Mogg or Rudd are the answer.

    Her success in getting past "Phase 1" in December gave her enough currency to do this, and she had to do it prior to the (inevitable) difficulties on negotiating transition and the heads-of-terms for the full deal.

    The issue (as always) is her secrecy, inability to think flexibly on her feet and poor empathy.

    Those weaknesses aren't going to go away.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311

    She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
    Archie Norman came into the Commons with an established record as a well respected and dynamic business leader who might be expeceted to progress to be Conservative leader. However, it transpired that leadership skills in business are not the same as leadership skills in politics and he was unable to prosper.
    Across the whole 2015 intake I would have said two possible Tory leaders. One is James Cleverly, who May has appointed to CCHQ, and the other is BoJo which is cheating.
    You need to add Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer to that list.
    And Chris Philp.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,135

    So what will Corbyn go for at PMQs?

    Housing?

    Mrs May too weak to move ministers?

    NHS crisis I would think?
  • I am regularly accused of being Theresa May's cheerleader on here but those posters do not see that my support for her at present is purely pragmatic. The re-shuffle was chaotic and why she did not know Hunt and Greening would say no fails me.

    She is flawed and a terrible communicator but she also has strengths and it is those strengths that will see her survive to mid 2019 as Brexit is concluded one way or another.

    ConHome is not representative of all of the membership and I fully support her appointments yesterday as she moves the new MP's into junior positions and gives them a chance.

    It is interesting that the obnoxious hard left have restarted their abusive and bullying campaign against Esther McVey and it is time that the labour party called these people out.

    I do not expect or even want Theresa to take us into the next election but she is the right politician at the right time doing a job that impossible to imagine anyone else being able to do better.

    Yesterday's avalanche of attacks on Theresa May seemed to be orchestrated by the left (fair enough) but also those who are remain fanatics who seem to think that if they can discredit her they will see her fall and with her fall Brexit will not happen. Indeed there may some truth in that but in the end Brexit will pass and those conservatives who are gunning for her need to realize there is a much bigger picture and that is to unite to win the next GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    It's hard not to respect Hunt's decision.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,110
    edited January 10



    Gloriously naive - are you a civil servant negotiating for the UK?

    What will happen is this - the EU will agree a very woolly 'political declaration' on trade that will promise to consider services access in an FTA. The UK will sign the A50 agreement. Then, when the real negotiations begin, the EU will announce that they cannot get unanimous agreement on services (or pretty much anything else that favours the UK) and that we can take a deal that is for goods only, which is totally in the EUs favour. The UK will complain but will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty and it is not ljnked to ratification of the FTA. If we refuse we will get no deal but still be liable for the money.

    Why on Earth would the EU NOT behave in this way? It is our fault for agreeing that the Brexit bill and the trade talks were not linked. This is the truth about the sellout that May has inflicted upon the UK.

    "......will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty"

    We have been told this is not a legal obligation but a moral obligation. One moral obligation deserves another. It is a quid pro quo. It's Tit for Tat. It's a negotiation.
    You have missed the point. Right now, the Brexit bill is not a legal liability as you say as it does not exist under any treaty. However, when we sign the A50 agreement it will become a legal liability enforceable under UK law, since we have agreed that the treaty will have direct effect and we have agreed that the payment of the bill will form part of the treaty.

    However, the EUs obligations to enter into a trade deal will NOT be a legal liability - it will only be a 'political declaration'. So whatever we agree with the EU now regarding trade they can roll back after Brexit but we have to pay the bill regardless. This is the position our traitorous civil service has hoisted upon us.
    Any A50 agreement should make UK end payments to the EU conditional on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU.

    If there is a transition arrangement then ongoing contributions by the UK to the EU will need to be made of course.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    I'm still puzzled by the confident predictions of the outcome of our Brexit negotiations. I've a good deal of negotiation experience, but the EU's past record on fudgery, together with the variable impact of Brexit on individual EU member states makes it seem extraordinarily hard to predict what outcome we'll jointly achieve.

    The EU fudges because it operates by consensus and you can't reach a consensus with 27 or 28 countries without a good dose of fudge. It tends to be hard-edged with third parties, which is what we are now. Having said that I think there will be fudge, but not as people imagine it. The fudge will be the pretence that the very clearcut legal agreement between the EU and the UK is different from what it actually is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    GIN1138 said:

    So what will Corbyn go for at PMQs?

    Housing?

    Mrs May too weak to move ministers?

    NHS crisis I would think?
    Surely. Possibly combined with do you think Mr Hunt is the right man to deal with this given you wanted to move him?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 549
    FF43 said:

    I would say, barring health or other unplanned issues or a desire to step down, Mrs May is safe until at least 2020 when the "transition" deal is supposed to complete.

    For the detail of the "three buckets" approach to the Brexit deal, supposedly getting the interest of the UK government, read section 4, EU-UK Regulatory partnership here. The UK would start this scheme in full alignment with the other EU members with current payments and Freedom of Movement, Customs Union etc. Moving forward it would commit to continuing certain parts of the EU acquis; it would disengage in a managed way on other parts; there would be a middle part where the UK would become independent of the rules but remain aligned, with an agreed cost to the UK to do so. I imagine the EU would be happy with part 1 - full implementation of parts of the acquis. They should also be OK with the UK disengaging other parts, provided they were agreed in advance and especially if they are outside the Single Market acquis. The middle bucket is the tricky one. I think the EU will be very reluctant to allow unilateral disengagement by the UK and would want to control it.

    The big advantages of the "three buckets" approach are that it is quick to agree because there is no initial change, and that it delays the cliff edge indefinitely. It allows potential divergence. In reality we would likely remain in the Single Market. If we have any sense we will stay in the Customs Union too as it eases trade with our by far biggest partner and our best available third party deals are replicas of the third party deals we already have through the EU.

    Will it happen? Once you realise Brexit is entirely a rhetorical exercise with unwelcome real consequences, things slip into place. The important negotiation is to get the EU to agree to pretend the UK is a free agent. The UK government can also claim the UK third party deals are better than the original EU ones they simulate, even though they will be more limited, because these are UK deals and those are EU ones.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit

    The three buckets approach is the manner in which the civil service plan to betray Brexit and lock us into EU regulation forever. The reality is that for the middle 'bucket' we will never end up diverging at all, so in reality we will simply end up accepting EU regulation in return for basically nothing more than a basic trade agreement. The whole point of this approach is to allow the Government to pretend that we have gained control when in reality we still follow EU regulations in all material areas.

    Those who voted Leave and actually meant it need to get wise to this ploy as fast as possible or we will end up with EU membership by the back door.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    My reading is that Hunt wants to eventually launch an unorthodox leadership bid for the Tories by running from Health & Social Care, and turning his experience of the NHS from a weakness to a strength.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    It's hard not to respect Hunt's decision.
    Hunt may just have played a blinder by getting TM to include Social care under health. If he can take the green paper through Parliament and emerge successfully he will at a stroke demolish labour's weaponising of the NHS and give the conservatives a much better chance of winning the next GE.

    I heard some time ago that he had said that Health would be his last job in government and that seems to be the case, maybe other than leader
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,249

    I am regularly accused of being Theresa May's cheerleader on here but those posters do not see that my support for her at present is purely pragmatic. The re-shuffle was chaotic and why she did not know Hunt and Greening would say no fails me.

    She is flawed and a terrible communicator but she also has strengths and it is those strengths that will see her survive to mid 2019 as Brexit is concluded one way or another.

    ConHome is not representative of all of the membership and I fully support her appointments yesterday as she moves the new MP's into junior positions and gives them a chance.

    It is interesting that the obnoxious hard left have restarted their abusive and bullying campaign against Esther McVey and it is time that the labour party called these people out.

    I do not expect or even want Theresa to take us into the next election but she is the right politician at the right time doing a job that impossible to imagine anyone else being able to do better.

    Yesterday's avalanche of attacks on Theresa May seemed to be orchestrated by the left (fair enough) but also those who are remain fanatics who seem to think that if they can discredit her they will see her fall and with her fall Brexit will not happen. Indeed there may some truth in that but in the end Brexit will pass and those conservatives who are gunning for her need to realize there is a much bigger picture and that is to unite to win the next GE.

    It is not the left attacking Theresa May, but Conservatives.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    It's hard not to respect Hunt's decision.
    Hunt may just have played a blinder by getting TM to include Social care under health. If he can take the green paper through Parliament and emerge successfully he will at a stroke demolish labour's weaponising of the NHS and give the conservatives a much better chance of winning the next GE.

    I heard some time ago that he had said that Health would be his last job in government and that seems to be the case, maybe other than leader
    If (as the Lacedaemonians would say) he can make health and social care work effectively together he will deserve the leadership. Big if.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773



    Gloriously naive - are you a civil servant negotiating for the UK?

    What will happen is this - the EU will agree a very woolly 'political declaration' on trade that will promise to consider services access in an FTA. The UK will sign the A50 agreement. Then, when the real negotiations begin, the EU will announce that they cannot get unanimous agreement on services (or pretty much anything else that favours the UK) and that we can take a deal that is for goods only, which is totally in the EUs favour. The UK will complain but will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty and it is not ljnked to ratification of the FTA. If we refuse we will get no deal but still be liable for the money.

    Why on Earth would the EU NOT behave in this way? It is our fault for agreeing that the Brexit bill and the trade talks were not linked. This is the truth about the sellout that May has inflicted upon the UK.

    "......will still be legally liable to pay the 40-50bn Brexit bill because it is a legal obligation under the treaty"

    We have been told this is not a legal obligation but a moral obligation. One moral obligation deserves another. It is a quid pro quo. It's Tit for Tat. It's a negotiation.
    You have missed the point. Right now, the Brexit bill is not a legal liability as you say as it does not exist under any treaty. However, when we sign the A50 agreement it will become a legal liability enforceable under UK law, since we have agreed that the treaty will have direct effect and we have agreed that the payment of the bill will form part of the treaty.

    However, the EUs obligations to enter into a trade deal will NOT be a legal liability - it will only be a 'political declaration'. So whatever we agree with the EU now regarding trade they can roll back after Brexit but we have to pay the bill regardless. This is the position our traitorous civil service has hoisted upon us.
    Any A50 agreement should make UK end payments to the EU conditional on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU.

    If there is a transition arrangement then ongoing contributions by the UK to the EU will need to be made of course.
    The Withdrawal Agreement is an opportunity to agree stuff before the exiting country leaves. If we don't agree, we get chaos and the EU will insist on payment as part of any subsequent attempt to sort out the chaos. It's a settlement of our account. In exchange we get an extension of about two years and a commitment to discuss the next steps. We won't get a trade deal for it. Archer is correct. The government has sort of realised the inevitably crappy deal is better than no deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Mr. L, it's a bit ironic, the famous 'if' because if Philip/Alexander had actually attacked Sparta, they would've utterly crushed the Spartans. Ballsy answer, though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    edited January 10

    FF43 said:


    For the detail of the "three buckets" approach to the Brexit deal, supposedly getting the interest of the UK government, read section 4, EU-UK Regulatory partnership here.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit

    The three buckets approach is the manner in which the civil service plan to betray Brexit and lock us into EU regulation forever. The reality is that for the middle 'bucket' we will never end up diverging at all, so in reality we will simply end up accepting EU regulation in return for basically nothing more than a basic trade agreement. The whole point of this approach is to allow the Government to pretend that we have gained control when in reality we still follow EU regulations in all material areas.

    Those who voted Leave and actually meant it need to get wise to this ploy as fast as possible or we will end up with EU membership by the back door.
    Not quite. It probably woundn't be a "basic trade agreement". That would go against the purpose of this "ploy" We would end up possibly with Norway+, ie Single Market and Customs Union. Whether it is Brexit is another matter. If Brexit is simply a state of mind it could be.
  • I am regularly accused of being Theresa May's cheerleader on here but those posters do not see that my support for her at present is purely pragmatic. The re-shuffle was chaotic and why she did not know Hunt and Greening would say no fails me.

    She is flawed and a terrible communicator but she also has strengths and it is those strengths that will see her survive to mid 2019 as Brexit is concluded one way or another.

    ConHome is not representative of all of the membership and I fully support her appointments yesterday as she moves the new MP's into junior positions and gives them a chance.

    It is interesting that the obnoxious hard left have restarted their abusive and bullying campaign against Esther McVey and it is time that the labour party called these people out.

    I do not expect or even want Theresa to take us into the next election but she is the right politician at the right time doing a job that impossible to imagine anyone else being able to do better.

    Yesterday's avalanche of attacks on Theresa May seemed to be orchestrated by the left (fair enough) but also those who are remain fanatics who seem to think that if they can discredit her they will see her fall and with her fall Brexit will not happen. Indeed there may some truth in that but in the end Brexit will pass and those conservatives who are gunning for her need to realize there is a much bigger picture and that is to unite to win the next GE.

    It is not the left attacking Theresa May, but Conservatives.
    I would agree and they are remain obsessives and those who do not like the promotion of the new intake and a more representative party
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    FF43 said:

    I would say, barring health or other unplanned issues or a desire to step down, Mrs May is safe until at least 2020 when the "transition" deal is supposed to complete.

    The UK would start this scheme in full alignment with the other EU members with current payments and Freedom of Movement, Customs Union etc. Moving forward it would commit to continuing certain parts of the EU acquis; it would disengage in a managed way on other parts; there would be a middle part where the UK would become independent of the rules but remain aligned, with an agreed cost to the UK to do so. I imagine the EU would be happy with part 1 - full implementation of parts of the acquis. They should also be OK with the UK disengaging other parts, provided they were agreed in advance and especially if they are outside the Single Market acquis. The middle bucket is the tricky one. I think the EU will be very reluctant to allow unilateral disengagement by the UK and would want to control it.

    The big advantages of the "three buckets" approach are that it is quick to agree because there is no initial change, and that it delays the cliff edge indefinitely. It allows potential divergence. In reality we would likely remain in the Single Market. If we have any sense we will stay in the Customs Union too as it eases trade with our by far biggest partner and our best available third party deals are replicas of the third party deals we already have through the EU.

    Will it happen? Once you realise Brexit is entirely a rhetorical exercise with unwelcome real consequences, things slip into place. The important negotiation is to get the EU to agree to pretend the UK is a free agent. The UK government can also claim the UK third party deals are better than the original EU ones they simulate, even though they will be more limited, because these are UK deals and those are EU ones.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit

    I'm surprised not to hear more discussion on here about the Barnier speech from yesterday.

    My reading is that there is a split in the EU27 between some EU countries who are more pragmatic and want to do their best to accommodate the UK's wishes, and France and Germany who are maintaining a hard line.

    Barnier is trying his best to steer a line between them. There is also talk of the UK becoming a "model" for very close 3rd countries with the EU in future who do not wish to become full members (UK, Turkey and Ukraine, but perhaps also others like Switzerland in longer term)

    This would work in that the EU could defend itself and that it's a distinct alternative model to EEA or CETA that could subsequently be credibly offered to those other countries.

    This will play out over the rest of this year.

    Interesting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it has hastened her departure in that it will have revived the determination in the party not to have her leading the Tories into another GE campaign. May has some strengths but she also has catastrophic weaknesses in the areas of political management and these were highlighted yet again by the botched reshuffle.

    I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.

    Re your post on the last thread:-

    UK manufacturing has achieved more growth in the past 18 months than it achieved in the previous 16 years.
    The march of the makers (slightly belatedly).
    The apparent fall in construction output is down to previous months' numbers being revised upwards. Overall, output is about 3% higher than the ONS originally thought that it was.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    I stuck a few pounds on her a while back just in case really. I can't see it myself. Does she have a following of any description within Tory MPs? I don't know.
    She’s popular, she’s got a lot of fans for the way she dealt with the vile abuse she had to deal with in 2015.

    Imagine an Esther Vs Corbyn/McDonnell election in 2022... The abuse that could be thrown at her will be incredible!

    One other thing that is in Esther's favour is that given her background in television she won't be hiding the sofa when the TV debates are taking place... Unlike you know who... ;)
    I would keep her as Chancellor, not Leader.

    I'm not sure how well she'd do the empathy or mood music as a leader/PM.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361

    Mr. L, it's a bit ironic, the famous 'if' because if Philip/Alexander had actually attacked Sparta, they would've utterly crushed the Spartans. Ballsy answer, though.

    I thought it was their reply to the Persians?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it has hastened her departure in that it will have revived the determination in the party not to have her leading the Tories into another GE campaign. May has some strengths but she also has catastrophic weaknesses in the areas of political management and these were highlighted yet again by the botched reshuffle.

    I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.

    Re your post on the last thread:-

    UK manufacturing has achieved more growth in the past 18 months than it achieved in the previous 16 years.
    The march of the makers (slightly belatedly).
    The apparent fall in construction output is down to previous months' numbers being revised upwards. Overall, output is about 3% higher than the ONS originally thought that it was.
    The construction stats are a joke but even the ONS has house building up in November.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    DavidL said:
    "found herself"? :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382

    FF43 said:

    I would say, barring health or other unplanned issues or a desire to step down, Mrs May is safe until at least 2020 when the "transition" deal is supposed to complete.

    Will it happen? Once you realise Brexit is entirely a rhetorical exercise with unwelcome real consequences, things slip into place. The important negotiation is to get the EU to agree to pretend the UK is a free agent. The UK government can also claim the UK third party deals are better than the original EU ones they simulate, even though they will be more limited, because these are UK deals and those are EU ones.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit

    The three buckets approach is the manner in which the civil service plan to betray Brexit and lock us into EU regulation forever. The reality is that for the middle 'bucket' we will never end up diverging at all, so in reality we will simply end up accepting EU regulation in return for basically nothing more than a basic trade agreement. The whole point of this approach is to allow the Government to pretend that we have gained control when in reality we still follow EU regulations in all material areas.

    Those who voted Leave and actually meant it need to get wise to this ploy as fast as possible or we will end up with EU membership by the back door.
    I'm more relaxed on alignment, equivalence and divergence. There are some non-controversial standards which we'd want to keep fully aligned with the EU (intercontinental loading gauges, aviation safety rules and energy transmission) to facilitate easy of cross-border trade. Others (product standards, shapes and sizes, or environmental targets) which we would do the same thing, but in our own way - i.e "equivalent" - without sticking on EU flags and branding onto everything.

    For regulating global ports, financial services, and new technology, we're going to want a bit more flexibility, they're going to want not to be undercut and a level of oversight control. Hence the negotiation.

    We may agree rules for a new disputes body that agrees which "bucket" future regulations should fall into.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    It's hard not to respect Hunt's decision.
    He certainly went (further) up in my estimation - it hardly had “opportunist” or “careerist” written all over it! Can anyone imagine Boris doing the same?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Oh good, I thought it was just me. That private members bill is becoming urgent.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    You can tell a cartoon is crap when things in it are labelled. I think the yellow triangle is a wheel clamp.

    I haven't laughed so much since Toby's Kleenex gag.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,219
    Someone should tell George that if you have to explain a joke, it's not funny.
  • I keep on telling everyone, being a privately educated person means you're in a persecuted minority

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,276
    I sense a good PMQs from Tezza today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,641
    edited January 10

    Theresa May remains the human incarnation of faute de mieux. One consequence of the nonshuffle is that little fresh blood was brought into the Cabinet. That means that if Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister in 2019 from within the Conservative ranks after the Brexit negotiations are concluded, as many expect, the longshots are going to suffer with a real credibility problem. How can they be seen as ready to serve on day one without the blessing of the electorate?

    If you think that 2019 is the year she will be replaced, look within the Cabinet for your possibles, probably at the highest ranks. So that means Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd and maybe Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and David Lidington (who is looking like her effective deputy and will attract much more attention in the year ahead) are the ones to consider.

    For me, that list is in increasing order of value.

    You miss out Phil Hammond in your list of possibilities. I think Phil in particular is worth watching. He is strong on numbers and economics, which is the Tory strong suit against Corbyn and McDonnell, and has an unflappable charm. His cough sweet to Theresa was a genuinely kind spontaneous act that says a lot about character. He has turned the other cheek when attacked, and quietly got on with the job.

    The lack of obvious successor does mean that his chance may come, young cardinals etc.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470

    She is pathetic, even the political editor of The Sun is gunning for her.



    The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.

    Very few new MPs ever seen as "leadership material".

    On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
    Archie Norman came into the Commons with an established record as a well respected and dynamic business leader who might be expeceted to progress to be Conservative leader. However, it transpired that leadership skills in business are not the same as leadership skills in politics and he was unable to prosper.
    Across the whole 2015 intake I would have said two possible Tory leaders. One is James Cleverly, who May has appointed to CCHQ, and the other is BoJo which is cheating.
    You need to add Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer to that list.
    Are we really saying that in a leadership contest next week they would be called upon to say "yes" or "no"? Next year?

    All of them have to hope may holds on to 2021 or wait for another set of leadership elections in the meantime.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,749

    I keep on telling everyone, being a privately educated person means you're in a persecuted minority

    I thought it just made you a dickhead.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got a feeling Esther McVey is one to keep an eye on for 2020... ;)

    If she can defuse Iain Duncan Smith’s timebomb she’ll be a contender.

    JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
    Given the state of the NHS, Hunt may regret not getting out of Health when he had the chance...
    It's hard not to respect Hunt's decision.
    Hunt may just have played a blinder by getting TM to include Social care under health. If he can take the green paper through Parliament and emerge successfully he will at a stroke demolish labour's weaponising of the NHS and give the conservatives a much better chance of winning the next GE.

    I heard some time ago that he had said that Health would be his last job in government and that seems to be the case, maybe other than leader
    It'll need a pile of cash to the front line. Problem is that the marketisation / fragmentisation structure costs money. So we get record cash poured in by government, and record cash shortages in hospitals.

    If he can square that circle...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,309
    edited January 10
    Jo Whiley moves to BBC Radio 2 drivetime slot

    At a time when pay equality is under scrutiny at the BBC, Radio 2 confirmed Mayo and Whiley will earn the same.

    According to figures published by the BBC last July, Mayo currently receives a salary in the range £350,000 - £399,999, while Whiley is paid £150,000 - £199,999.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-42633173

    I somehow doubt they got to equal pay by Mayo taking a 50% pay cut....the over inflated salaries of some of BBC Radio "stars" are going to cut them a fortune now that everybody is going to get uprated.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    DavidL said:

    Oh good, I thought it was just me. That private members bill is becoming urgent.
    What, banning cartoonists who are not Matt? +1, if so.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited January 10
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    I'm still puzzled by the confident predictions of the outcome of our Brexit negotiations. I've a good deal of negotiation experience, but the EU's past record on fudgery, together with the variable impact of Brexit on individual EU member states makes it seem extraordinarily hard to predict what outcome we'll jointly achieve.

    The EU fudges because it operates by consensus and you can't reach a consensus with 27 or 28 countries without a good dose of fudge. It tends to be hard-edged with third parties, which is what we are now. Having said that I think there will be fudge, but not as people imagine it. The fudge will be the pretence that the very clearcut legal agreement between the EU and the UK is different from what it actually is.
    For clarity, I wasn't criticizing the EU for its fudgery; as you say, it goes with the territory.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,447

    I keep on telling everyone, being a privately educated person means you're in a persecuted minority

    Don't like that hyphen - unnecessary after an adverb.
This discussion has been closed.