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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum on the agenda

EXCLUSIVE – Nigel Farage says "just maybe I’m reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership".@Nigel_Farage | @Matthew_Wright | #wrightstuff pic.twitter.com/T0fROToskr

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    First! Like LEAVE
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Anyone who thinks Mrs May is going to consult the electorate unless she absolutely has to hasn’t been paying attention...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,110
    I seem to recall one T May calling an election thinking she was well ahead.

    Never second guess the electorate.

  • Well Boris wants a second referendum too.

    I can imagine it now, a by election in 2017 and 'Vote UKIP to get a second referendum' will be the slogan.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,173
    Requires a majority of MPs to back it. I suspect this isn't going to happen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    Well Boris wants a second referendum too.

    I can imagine it now, a by election in 2017 and 'Vote UKIP to get a second referendum' will be the slogan.

    Wants or Wanted?

    That was before he won the first one, wasn’t it?
  • I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.
  • Well Boris wants a second referendum too.

    I can imagine it now, a by election in 2017 and 'Vote UKIP to get a second referendum' will be the slogan.

    Not sure I follow your meaning
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,309

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Why does she listen to him, he's clearly a witless idiot.
  • Well Boris wants a second referendum too.

    I can imagine it now, a by election in 2017 and 'Vote UKIP to get a second referendum' will be the slogan.

    Wants or Wanted?

    That was before he won the first one, wasn’t it?
    He's never repudiated his line that he wanted us to vote to Leave so we'd get better terms.

    Boris is someone who will always put principle ahead of personal ambition.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,149

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Perhaps he can add in a policy of taxing people with breast cancer while he’s at it.

    On topic - the public doesn’t want a second referendum.
    If there was one - I suspect leave would win more comfortably.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Why does she listen to him, he's clearly a witless idiot.
    She doesn't have many friends in politics and he's a sycophant, and she likes a sycophant.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    I don't want another referendum. It would prolong uncertainty, and let's face it, we need to distance ourselves from the beastly Visigrad group. Besides which, Yasmin tells me that Brexit Britain will be full of pies, which sounds like the very heaven.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

  • The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    And can you imagine how anyone would agree on the wording
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,276

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We should have @SeanT as the face of both Leave and Remain, put him in a locked room in Upper Volta and then, on the eve of the referendum, he should appear on TV and tell us how we should vote.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11

    Anyone who thinks Mrs May is going to consult the electorate unless she absolutely has to hasn’t been paying attention...


    Agreed - no way will she call one and no way would Corbyn back one either as it would fracture his
    Coalition too.

    No one will be able to agree on the question anyway.

    Is it leave or remain
    Is it leave completely or leave in name only
    Is it accept the deal or stay in
    Is it accept the deal or leave on WTO rules
    Is it leave or remain but remain meaning we have to join Schengen and the Euro as we have already triggered article 50

    What exactly is the vote going to be on - because I doubt even if May agreed to one everyone could agree on what it would be. And it would create chaos for negotiations - as anything May agrees could be overturned by voters. It's a recipe for chaos.

    If we can have another vote on remain vs leave in two years then morally why can't the SNP have another vote on independence. Do we just keep voting until everyone is exhausted and we vote the right way - Ireland style!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    Completely O/T, from the Brasserie Blanc:

    Fresh from the sea and delivered straight to our kitchen, our smoked potted mackerel is full of flavour.

    I hadn't realised that things had got so bad that fishermen were finding jars of potted mackerel in their nets.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,328
    brendan16 said:

    Anyone who thinks Mrs May is going to consult the electorate unless she absolutely has to hasn’t been paying attention...


    Agreed - no way will she call one and no way would Corbyn back one either as it would fracture his
    Coalition too.

    No one will be able to agree on the question anyway.

    Is it leave or remain
    Is it leave completely or leave in name only
    Is it accept the deal or stay in
    Is it accept the deal or leave on WTO rules
    Is it leave or remain but remain meaning we have to join Schengen and the Euro as we have already triggered article 50

    What exactly is the vote going to be on - because I doubt even if May agreed to one anyone could agree on what it would be. And it would create chaos for negotiations - as anything May agrees could be overturned by voters. It's a recipe for chaos.
    Given that what we have already is complete chaos it is hard to see how this could be worse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    I'd have thought that was good news for the Tories.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,568
    Farage’s reasoning is that a second victory for Leave would completely close down further discussion on the matter and set the seal on UK policy for generations to come referendum would get him back on the telly and the front pages.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,309

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We've voted (narrowly) to leave whether Farage likes it or not. His personal want for a more emphatic leave result can go hang.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    TOPPING said:

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We should have @SeanT as the face of both Leave and Remain, put him in a locked room in Upper Volta and then, on the eve of the referendum, he should appear on TV and tell us how we should vote.
    TOPPING said:

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We should have @SeanT as the face of both Leave and Remain, put him in a locked room in Upper Volta and then, on the eve of the referendum, he should appear on TV and tell us how we should vote.
    We should just borrow Punxsutawney Phil. If he sees his shadow, it's 42 more years of EU.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,864

    Anyone who thinks Mrs May is going to consult the electorate unless she absolutely has to hasn’t been paying attention...

    It would be a way out if we were faced with a crash out to WTO rules. Of course it would need a leader to put country before party for once - and I can't see May or Corbyn doing that.
  • NormNorm Posts: 819
    Let's be clear a second referendum would result in a remain vote as voter apathy takes hold. The history of EU second referendums suggests this. Farage clearly no longer fancying his impending P45 from the EU parliament.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,480
    rkrkrk said:

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Perhaps he can add in a policy of taxing people with breast cancer while he’s at it.

    LOL! What would Nick Timothy's ideal manifesto include?

    1. Abolishing charitable status for animal sanctuaries and the RNLI
    2. Halving the State Retirement Pension
    3. Doubling tuition fees
    4. Imposing a charge for cat ownership
    5. Axing child benefit.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,236
    I'm all for a multi-option second (third?) referendum conducted under AV.

    Assuming the deal isn't BINO I would vote:

    1. Leave with the deal
    2. Leave with No Deal
    3. Remain, but join Euro / Schengen
    4. Remain on existing terms
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,328
    Sean_F said:

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    I'd have thought that was good news for the Tories.
    Stringfellow is going to front the Remain campaign in EURefII.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Yawn.

    Farage wants to be on the telly again.

    Move along please. Democracy isn't decided on twitter, and it isn't decided by Farage.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,236
    Sean_F said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Perhaps he can add in a policy of taxing people with breast cancer while he’s at it.

    LOL! What would Nick Timothy's ideal manifesto include?

    1. Abolishing charitable status for animal sanctuaries and the RNLI
    2. Halving the State Retirement Pension
    3. Doubling tuition fees
    4. Imposing a charge for cat ownership
    5. Axing child benefit.

    I had to get all the way to 5 before I found a policy I agree with.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11
    Anazina said:

    brendan16 said:

    Anyone who thinks Mrs May is going to consult the electorate unless she absolutely has to hasn’t been paying attention...


    Agreed - no way will she call one and no way would Corbyn back one either as it would fracture his
    Coalition too.

    No one will be able to agree on the question anyway.

    Is it leave or remain
    Is it leave completely or leave in name only
    Is it accept the deal or stay in
    Is it accept the deal or leave on WTO rules
    Is it leave or remain but remain meaning we have to join Schengen and the Euro as we have already triggered article 50

    What exactly is the vote going to be on - because I doubt even if May agreed to one anyone could agree on what it would be. And it would create chaos for negotiations - as anything May agrees could be overturned by voters. It's a recipe for chaos.
    Given that what we have already is complete chaos it is hard to see how this could be worse.
    So what is your question for the second referendum then. I have posted six alternatives - but that is not exhaustive I am sure.

    I expect this is all fantasy - May will cave in on pretty much everything, get a weak deal that is the worst of both worlds and parliament will approve it and voters will just have to suck it up. Doesn't matter what Farage thinks - May and Corbyn for different reasons won't want one. Neither wants UKIP and Farage re emerging from the ashes and Corbyn didn't have a great time last time round as it almost led to him being forced from office as almost his entire front bench quit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Pulpstar said:

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We've voted (narrowly) to leave whether Farage likes it or not. His personal want for a more emphatic leave result can go hang.
    I've not seen PB so united on any matter for agggggges.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    And can you imagine how anyone would agree on the wording
    “He thickos! You got it wrong last time! Care to try again?”
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,654
    Norm said:

    Let's be clear a second referendum would result in a remain vote as voter apathy takes hold. The history of EU second referendums suggests this. Farage clearly no longer fancying his impending P45 from the EU parliament.

    I think NF realises we're heading for BINO with probably skulking back in feeling a bit shit in 5-10 years and wants to resurrect the prospect of depleted uranium Brexit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651
    Now is not the time.

    Which is a shame, because seeing the contortions Ruthy D. would have to go through would be hilarious.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,328

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    And can you imagine how anyone would agree on the wording
    “He thickos! You got it wrong last time! Care to try again?”
    That's the best stab I've heard so far at the Referendum II question.

    Well done!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11

    I'm all for a multi-option second (third?) referendum conducted under AV.

    Assuming the deal isn't BINO I would vote:

    1. Leave with the deal
    2. Leave with No Deal
    3. Remain, but join Euro / Schengen
    4. Remain on existing terms

    We rejected AV in a referendum in 2011. Perhaps we should have a second AV referendum if you like before we have a second Brexit one to decide what voting system we use for the latter? Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage could campaign together with the Greens for AV!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,328
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We've voted (narrowly) to leave whether Farage likes it or not. His personal want for a more emphatic leave result can go hang.
    I've not seen PB so united on any matter for agggggges.

    Bring on EURef II.

    Bring it!
  • Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea of going through all that again would drive half the population to distraction.

    We've voted (narrowly) to leave whether Farage likes it or not. His personal want for a more emphatic leave result can go hang.
    I've not seen PB so united on any matter for agggggges.
    I do not see how a second referendum is possible. I suspect the population as a whole will just 'groan' and say no way, just get on and leave.

    Also if Farage is stressing over his place in the EU I can see no circumstances that the 2019 EU elections will include UK members
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    I never want to see or hear from Nigel Farage ever again.

    How about a referendum on exiling him to St Helena?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,851
    brendan16 said:

    Here is the apparent source of the 150 per cent rise in homophobic hate crimes. Of course when you see it is only in fact just over 100 extra cases compared to the millions of LGBT Brits you don't get the context. While all genuine cases are regrettable the percentages make a better headline than the actual numbers.

    Apparently there was a 100 per cent rise in Brits applying for French passports last year - but that was only 1500 extra applications compared to the more than 400,000 French people who live in London alone many of whom will be married to Brits and have kids who will be eligible for French passports even though they are 'British'. Beware headlines quoting percentages on small samples!

    London is seeing very large spikes in homophobic attacks relative to other regions - it also has the lowest proportion of Brexit voters. If it's down to Brexit voters why are the biggest rises in remain voting areas? Perhaps blaming Brexit is a bit too simplistic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote


    Oh - THAT one. The Guardian didn't provide any evidence either.

    The only number remotely similar to 147% was an increase in the number of phone calls for help from 72 to 189 on the helpline of Galop, which the Guardian transformed into a headline about national crime levels. Though 189/72 is 159%.

    Who knows - perhaps they had a publicity drive?

    The 147% does not occur in the Galop "Hate Crime 2016" report referenced either.

    I'm not disagreeing with the need for appropriate measures, just pointing out the general shitty quality of our media.

    The Galop helpline is an 0800 number, so they presumably cover Scotland too - so much for Wee Ginger Dug's "England and Wales". Perhaps he is a Red Setter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,309
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    I'd have thought that was good news for the Tories.
    Stringfellow is going to front the Remain campaign in EURefII.
    Has the resignation letter been hand delivered yet ?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    Mortimer said:

    Yawn.

    Farage wants to be on the telly again.

    Move along please. Democracy isn't decided on twitter, and it isn't decided by Farage.

    He made these comments on the telly!
  • Cyclefree said:

    I never want to see or hear from Nigel Farage ever again.

    How about a referendum on exiling him to St Helena?

    Or the US
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,249

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    It's a legitimate news story but is that really the West End Final edition? That's what George should look into.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,361
    Presumably the interesting links on the previous thread as to turnout being approximately 9% higher than is commonly thought at GEs due to double registrations etc applies equally to the Brexit referendum?

    If so, it is a remarkable vote, as was the Indyref. In fact the latter must have got as close to 100% as you could possibly get. 84.6%+ 9% = a scarcely credible 93.6% participation.

    There must be some interesting questions here about the assumptions of lower turnout in younger age groups. Younger people are far more likely to move and be on 2 registers, to be on a second register as a student etc. Once these anomalies are accounted for is their turnout really that much lower than the oldies? Its an interesting question, not least for those drafting the next manifestos.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,962
    He's either bored and is missing the limelight, or he's sincere and hasn't thought it through. Quite possibly both.

    A second referendum doesn't work because the options on it will be one or more of:

    - dependent on the actions of other countries (e.g. voting to remain having already triggered A50)
    - too vague (e.g. to confirm a Leave vote but with no details as to what that means)
    - a sham (e.g. deal vs no deal, with no time for renegotiation).

    We're past the point of referendums now, which is to take major decisions in principle. It's for parliament and the government to sort out the details.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    It's a legitimate news story but is that really the West End Final edition? That's what George should look into.
    How low the Standard has fallen under Osborne - it's just being used for him to settle scores and exercise vendettas.

    Yes. Let's cancel Brexit as ending Freedom of movement is going to be bad for the lap dancing industry?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    FPT - Alastair Meeks: I note you didn't address or respond to the substance
    of my points on defence.

    Please don't make assumptions about why I voted for Brexit. FWIW, I voted Leave because I believed it would enhance the role Britain plays in global affairs, not diminish it.

    I accept there are others who disagree with this, and don't think it's credible, but I feel an independent global voice with more freedom of action was of more value to us than a constrained voice in a confederal Union that increasingly ignored us anyway because we didn't want to go in the same direction.

    Fine judgement for some, perhaps, but the fundamentals are the same: Britain is a medium-sized, low ranking, world power that has hard and soft influence to shape it for the better.

    We should use both.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,447
    Nigel has thrown a real spanner in the works here. For months the Leavers were telling us that the referendum result was sacrosanct and immutable ('Will of the People' etc.) Now their leader has proclaimed that it can be overturned on a whim with no moral implications. Every certainty the Leavers clung to has crumbled to dust. Nigel has robbed them of everything they had.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,816
    Not one but two different stories for the site's Leavers to wet the beds about. Truly we are being spoiled today.
  • This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    It's a legitimate news story but is that really the West End Final edition? That's what George should look into.
    Rather confusingly 'West End Final' is not the last edition to be published, its the first. The last is called 'Late Night Final' I believe.

    Don't ask me why they use these terms though, as I haven't a clue!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,382
    On topic, maybe Nigel Farage is more self-aware than I thought.

    Just like Blair, this intervention is more likely to toxify the cause for a second referendum than anything else.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,816

    FPT - Alastair Meeks: I note you didn't address or respond to the substance
    of my points on defence.

    Please don't make assumptions about why I voted for Brexit. FWIW, I voted Leave because I believed it would enhance the role Britain plays in global affairs, not diminish it.

    I accept there are others who disagree with this, and don't think it's credible, but I feel an independent global voice with more freedom of action was of more value to us than a constrained voice in a confederal Union that increasingly ignored us anyway because we didn't want to go in the same direction.

    Fine judgement for some, perhaps, but the fundamentals are the same: Britain is a medium-sized, low ranking, world power that has hard and soft influence to shape it for the better.

    We should use both.

    Well you were wrong. Volunteering to leave the largest, closest and deepest organisation in which Britain participates internationally is 100% guaranteed to reduce Britain's influence and make Britain a rule-taker more than a rule-maker. It's not a fine judgement at all.

    On the point of substance about defence, you want Britain to strut on the international stage. But your mouth is writing cheques that your body can't cash. Britain should have faded gracefully back to being a regional presence decades ago, in line with its relative decline internationally. If there's one opportunity from Brexit, it's that this will in due course become apparent to even the most jingoistic and the meanest intellects.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875

    On topic, maybe Nigel Farage is more self-aware than I thought.

    Just like Blair, this intervention is more likely to toxify the cause for a second referendum than anything else.

    It might of course be a decoy to a rally a few high profile Remainers to the flag (EU flag, of course), only for the Government to easily rule it out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    Of course Farage wants a second referendum as the Leave victory was the worst possible result for UKIP whose vote has collapsed.Farage ideally wants a second referendum which Remain narrowly wins so he can get back to leading UKIP and Leave voters on a cry of 'betrayal' for years to come, ideally pocketing a Westminster and Strasbourg salary at the same time.

    Though whether the EU would want the UK back in the EU blocking everything again is another matter, now the UK is gone non Eurozone Poland is the problem and being warned by the likes of Verhofstadt, I expect they may only allow us back with a Remain landslide and commitment to join the Euro and Schengen which even many 2016 Remain voters would not accept
  • brendan16 said:

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    It's a legitimate news story but is that really the West End Final edition? That's what George should look into.
    How low the Standard has fallen under Osborne - it's just being used for him to settle scores and exercise vendettas.

    Yes. Let's cancel Brexit as ending Freedom of movement is going to be bad for the lap dancing industry?
    One of the most important deals I ever oversaw was concluded in Stringfellows.

    They serve food in there, it was the client who chose the venue, not me.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651
    Dan bumping uglies with his inner Trump. He'll be going on about puppet master Soros next.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Farage is wrong. A 2nd referendum would not settle the question "for generations". The young want to Remain. When they are the middle aged then we will start work towards rejoin.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited January 11
    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    They remind me of my dogs pre-walkies. Any time I move near the leads, the heads rise, the noses twitch...'walk Referendum?'

    Anyway must dash. This bed won't wet itself, and of course, my whole world has crumbled after Farage's decisive intervention. Whatever shall I do?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615
    edited January 11

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    The LDs are welcome to Stringfellow, given he was a staunch backer of William Hague his support is not exactly crucial to Tory success.

    Oddly Stringfellow threatened to vote UKIP when Cameron was PM but in the end stuck with the Tories

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2948609/EPHRAIM-HARDCASTLE-Peter-Stringfellow-returns-Tory-fold-threatening-vote-UKIP-local-elections.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798

    Nigel has thrown a real spanner in the works here. For months the Leavers were telling us that the referendum result was sacrosanct and immutable ('Will of the People' etc.) Now their leader has proclaimed that it can be overturned on a whim with no moral implications. Every certainty the Leavers clung to has crumbled to dust. Nigel has robbed them of everything they had.

    He is consistent though in some respects. He has always said iirc that a narrow Remain vote last year would mean he would push for a 2nd referendum.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    There isnt going to be a second referendum. Honestly there isnt. Remoaners need to let it go. They cling to every straw, but we will be leaving the EU in just over a year's time.

    If they really cant stop sweating the fact that they lost in 2016, they need to start the campaign for re-entry AFTER we leave. Again, something that wont happen because it would mean us accepting the Euro.

    Remoaners who cant let it go are only harming themselves and causing themselves much unhappiness.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11
    Norm said:

    Let's be clear a second referendum would result in a remain vote as voter apathy takes hold. The history of EU second referendums suggests this. Farage clearly no longer fancying his impending P45 from the EU parliament.

    Only the Irish got asked to vote again - their constitution mandates referendums on many issues. And fhe Irish got concessions on their first vote and in their second vote on LIsbon post the financial crisis they were promised no bailouts, bankruptcy and starvation if they didn't ratify the second time round.

    The British electorate may not be so easily railroaded. There may actually be a reaction the other way - we already voted so why are we being asked to vote again. Do you hold us in contempt? So it might actually spur a stronger leave vote - as frankly it is rather insulting to be asked to keep voting until you deliver the right result.

    Post June 2016 politicians will be very wary of referendums - as you cannot predict the result. It brought down a PM and nearly cost Corbyn his job. May and Corbyn won't want to repeat that experience.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,249
    Marks & Spencer sales down, shares down -- cause and effect.
    Tesco sales up, shares down -- sometimes I think these City types just make it up as they go along.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42646021
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,024
    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
  • Off Topic - Last night I watched a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins which took place during the common market vote in '75.

    Fascinating stuff without a hint of soundbites and buckets of substance. Both the standard of the politicians and the journalism pales in comparison nowadays.

    What's more depressing is that I couldn't see such a level of debate ever taking place between toady's crop of politicians on either side of the divide.

    Worth a watch if you have a spare 50 minutes.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,447
    It's Theresa I feel sorry for. After Nigel's intervention, she's bound to be asked if she favours a second referendum herself. She'll have to say no, and in doing so will look more intransigent and undemocratic than Farage. Nigel has done the dirty on one of his own children.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798
    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    Imagine the contortions in the Labour party if it did happen!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 900
    edited January 11

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Farage is wrong. A 2nd referendum would not settle the question "for generations". The young want to Remain. When they are the middle aged then we will start work towards rejoin.
    The young may also change their mind when they get older. Remain won by a landslide in 1975 - on the backs of votes presumably by today's Pensioners when they were young who voted leave in 2016.

    Who knows what sort of world and Europe we may have in 20 or 30 years - or even if there will be an EU or even a UK.

    If people voted the same at 20 as at 60 we wouldn't have had Tory governments for most of the last century.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    Imagine the contortions in the Labour party if it did happen!
    But there wont be a "this time."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798

    Off Topic - Last night I watched a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins which took place during the common market vote in '75.

    Fascinating stuff without a hint of soundbites and buckets of substance. Both the standard of the politicians and the journalism pales in comparison nowadays.

    What's more depressing is that I couldn't see such a level of debate ever taking place between toady's crop of politicians on either side of the divide.

    Worth a watch if you have a spare 50 minutes.

    A lost age sadly. I watched an old interview with Callaghan (when he was PM) a few months ago. The lengths to which he went to carefully explain his policy position and to argue against various points was incredible compared to today's ridiculous interviews full of interruptions and closing down every possible avenue of discussion.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,024

    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    Imagine the contortions in the Labour party if it did happen!
    It would be interesting...

    Corbyn would be very isolated though.
  • So when will we have another referendum on AV?

    No Cameron to win it for No and no Clegg to kick to cloud the judgement of the voters, I think Yes2AV will win a landslide.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,798

    Dan bumping uglies with his inner Trump. He'll be going on about puppet master Soros next.

    I take it he's not been invited.

    Whereas John McD has apparently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,309
    edited January 11

    Marks & Spencer sales down, shares down -- cause and effect.
    Tesco sales up, shares down -- sometimes I think these City types just make it up as they go along.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42646021

    I am glad you aren't in charge of my pension fund....the reason is very simple, although Tesco's sales were up they were no where near forecasts and thus the market has reacted accordingly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    Clearly we need a referendum to decide what referendums are needed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,433

    It's Theresa I feel sorry for. After Nigel's intervention, she's bound to be asked if she favours a second referendum herself. She'll have to say no, and in doing so will look more intransigent and undemocratic than Farage. Nigel has done the dirty on one of his own children.

    "One of his own children" who are you trying to kid?

    Farage has no love for the Tories and the feeling is mutual. He's not trying to do any favours for them and if he makes things awkward for them he'll be happy not sad.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,712
    stevef said:

    There isnt going to be a second referendum. Honestly there isnt. Remoaners need to let it go. They cling to every straw, but we will be leaving the EU in just over a year's time.

    If they really cant stop sweating the fact that they lost in 2016, they need to start the campaign for re-entry AFTER we leave. Again, something that wont happen because it would mean us accepting the Euro.

    Remoaners who cant let it go are only harming themselves and causing themselves much unhappiness.

    Today I learned Nigel Farage is a Remoaner
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,615

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Farage is wrong. A 2nd referendum would not settle the question "for generations". The young want to Remain. When they are the middle aged then we will start work towards rejoin.
    The young don't want the Euro though and given the EU is increasingly going to focus on the Eurozone a two tier Europe is inevitable, perhaps with a revived EFTA
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,804
    "Clearly the former UKIP leader thinks that this will be an easy victory for his side and it is hard to say from the polling whether he is right or not."

    Depends if he's leading it or they get somebody competent in.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,009
    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Has anyone read the Cambridge Econometrics report on Brexit, as commissioned by that arch-Brexiteer, Sadiq Khan? Might stop some of more apocalyptic remainers huffing into their paper bags.

    https://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Preparing-for-Brexit-Final-Report_110118.pdf
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 990
    edited January 11
    What I'd like to see happen:

    1 - we progress with negotiations which reach some sort of provisional outcome covering the exit and the future relationship, so we know what the deal is

    2 - in the background, an alternative vision of continued EU membership with various concessions, allowances, discretions etc, is dangled before us by the EU, recognising they lose out badly by us going, which possibly may apply to all EU states should they wish to take up these, and not just to help the UK out, so it's not "cherry picking" as such. The outcome we might have got to if we'd used the marginal "Leave" vote as a bargaining chip, Irish style.

    We then get the second vote. "This is where we have ended up. Either Option 1 or Option 2. Which do you want?"

    Option 2 wins 60-40 probably.

    Danger averted, and we don't end up suffering the inconvenience of leaving only to find in 10-20 years time, we have to negotiate our way back in, sans rebate and losing the pound etc.

    If only it were so simple of course.....

    My fear, as always on Brexit and that which drove me finally to come out for Remain after all my agonising, is not that we fall off a cliff edge, but that we end up in a form of vassalage, as Boris put it. We're not currently heading for a cliff edge, no UK Govt would be bold and bullish enough to risk that, but for a form of vassalage. I'd personally rather take a chance on 'cliff edge' between those two options, but "option 2" above would be far more preferable to me than any of the others. We "stay in", and maintain some influence over our future, and when the EU finally does go belly up, we can be there to help them sort it all out.

    It's what Cameron should have achieved for us with his "renegotiation", if only he'd been arsed enough to try properly....
  • NormNorm Posts: 819
    edited January 11
    brendan16 said:

    Norm said:

    Let's be clear a second referendum would result in a remain vote as voter apathy takes hold. The history of EU second referendums suggests this. Farage clearly no longer fancying his impending P45 from the EU parliament.

    Only the Irish got asked to vote again - their constitution mandates referendums on many issues. And fhe Irish got concessions on their first vote and in their second vote on LIsbon post the financial crisis they were promised no bailouts, bankruptcy and starvation if they didn't ratify the second time round.

    The British electorate may not be so easily railroaded. There may actually be a reaction the other way - we already voted so why are we being asked to vote again. Do you hold us in contempt? So it might actually spur a stronger leave vote - as frankly it is rather insulting to be asked to keep voting until you deliver the right result.

    Post June 2016 politicians will be very wary of referendums - as you cannot predict the result. It brought down a PM and nearly cost Corbyn his job. May and Corbyn won't want to repeat that experience.
    As David Herdson has rightly said the question is largely academic for various reasons but if in the unlikely event the 2016 choice was presented to the voters again Remain would win. While opinion polling hasn't superficially moved much, apathy from less committed Leave voters over a second referendum would be enough to take Remain over the line on its own. Add to that the more motivated side would be Remain bolstered by people who under-estimated the risk of losing last time. Die hard remainers now filling social media and comments pages incessantly were actually less evident in the 2016 campaign they expected to win. That mistake wouldn't be made a second time.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 990
    edited January 11
    FWIW, my opinion is that if we had a straight re-run of the vote now, or more particularly when the terms of "the deal" are known, then Remain would win at least 55-45.

    1 - folk are much better informed now than they were in June 2016, and know what the stakes are. Nobody will believe £350m a week is heading to the NHS for example

    2 - the youth vote / Corbynite Momentumers will swing it for Remain


    I don't think Farage wants a second vote at all. No way. I reckon we'll get a "clarification" from Farage in short order. He's known for going back on his various utterances once he's properly engaged his brain...
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Let me tell you why there wont be a second referendum:

    1).The Tory government would never allow it. It would split the Tories disastrously, with Brexiteers claiming it was a conspiracy to undo Brexit.

    2). Unlike the pressure to hold a first referendum because Tory voters were going to UKIP, this time that wont happen. Can you imagine millions of leavers voting for UKIP to get a second referendum which might lead to a Remain vote? Of course not.

    3). Corbyn wont call for it or support it. He has been a leaver for decades, -he voted against every single EU treaty in the Commons for 30 years. And if the Opposition wont call for it...
    And remember-there are millions of working class voters out there in Labour heartlands who feel strongly for Leave. It would be a disaster for Labour.

    4). Time. We are out of the EU in 15 months. There is no time for momentum to build up for a new referendum, and for it then to be organised. We would have left first.

    5). Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. Perhaps the two most discredited politicians of our generation -held in contempt by the mass of the population -have put themselves forward as the Lets Have Another Referendum spokesman -a gift to Brexit.

    This is why there wont be another referendum. You can safely put all your money on it. If you think the UK should be in the EU start a campaign to rejoin after we have left.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,804
    We need Toby Young to come out for a second referendum now.

    The mental gymnastics would be Olga Korbut standard.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    It's Theresa I feel sorry for. After Nigel's intervention, she's bound to be asked if she favours a second referendum herself. She'll have to say no, and in doing so will look more intransigent and undemocratic than Farage. Nigel has done the dirty on one of his own children.

    "One of his own children" who are you trying to kid?

    Farage has no love for the Tories and the feeling is mutual. He's not trying to do any favours for them and if he makes things awkward for them he'll be happy not sad.
    She's already said there wont be another referendum.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    As offensive as ever, I see.

    Oh, and inaccurate; I don't see any Leavers in a spin.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,496
    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,219
    How much did CCHQ pay Nige to distract attention from the NHS?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 825
    Farage knows his career is over when leave happens, so in reaility he does not want to leave the EU, he just wants to keep saying that we should.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,816
    There's no particular evidence that public opinion has changed much since the referendum so I'm not currently in favour of holding a fresh one.
This discussion has been closed.