Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming West Tyrone by-election would only matter if the wi

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming West Tyrone by-election would only matter if the winner took his/her seat at Westminster

Wikipedia

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,969
    edited January 15
    Bring back the SDLP.

    The irony of the Good Friday Agreement was that it ultimately ruined the moderate parties.
  • Ben Stokes charged with affray
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    edited January 15
    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Eagles, not heard of William James Sidis before. I hope he managed to stay well-adjusted, I imagine it could be quite difficult coping with being smarter than everyone else by a huge amount.

    The claims made about William Sidis's IQ were made by his sister, who seems to have been a bit of a fibber. He was very clever, but it's doubtful he was the cleverest man in history. I'd cast my lot for the hominid who invented the wheel.
    If he is the cleverest man in history, then according to http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx that is around 100 billion souls...

    IQ is defined as a mean of 100 and sigma of 15.

    6.806502σ is given as 1/100 000 000 000 probability which is ~ 102.

    So the IQ of the smartest person ever to have lived should be 202. If that was him then that is his IQ.

    Edit: Sorry should be ~ 200 I think as you need to halve the 1/100m to 1/50m which drops the IQ marginally (Not everyone is brighter than average !)

    So 200 is the max.
    It's the *expected* max. The actual one could be a fair bit higher (or, less likely, lower), as very small subsets become more random. There's no reason why the first 100bn shouldn't contain the most intelligent person in the first trillion. Unfortunately, she was a peasant in the sixth century.
    That reminds me of an argument that the reason we fail to detect other intelligent civilisations out there is because maybe there are not any other yet, maybe we are the first and will become the "mysterious ancient civilisation" for others to stumble across in time to come.

    The argument is that lifetime of the universe is vast - 100 trillion years or some such. It started 14 billion years ago so therefore only 14x10^9 / 10^14 = 14 / 100000 = 0.014% of the universe's estimated life (assuming no issues arise with false vacuum instability).
  • Ben Stokes charged with affray.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073

    Bring back the SDLP.

    The irony of the Good Friday Agreement was that it ultimately ruined the moderate parties.

    Indeed. I voted "Alliance" a few times when I lived in a rock solid DUP seat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Ben Stokes charged with affray

    As expected it’s a minor charge. Probably a couple of grand fine and a week doing nets at the local comp school or youth club.
  • Being found guilty of affray comes with a maximum three jail sentence and/or unlimited fine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    Being found guilty of affray comes with a maximum three jail sentence and/or unlimited fine.

    Essential reading for the ECB....
    https://www.criminal-lawyers.com.au/offences/affray
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,944
    Paul Mason
    ‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @paulmasonnews

    Left wins clean sweep in Labour NEC membership elections. Now let’s have mandatory selections of all MP candidates in every parliament

    Calls for the purge begin....
  • God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    Paul Mason
    ‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @paulmasonnews

    Left wins clean sweep in Labour NEC membership elections. Now let’s have mandatory selections of all MP candidates in every parliament

    Calls for the purge begin....

    All Labour MP candidates, surely.
    Unless Mr Mason's ambitions are yet more extensive ?
  • RWPRWP Posts: 5
    "It used to be that there was a range of nationalist MPs elected in Norther Ireland but over the years they have all been replaced by SF who don’t sit. The effect of this is that the Ulster Catholic community has been without a political voice in London for many years."

    This isn't true - it was only in June 2017 that the SDLP lost its final 3 Westminster seats - before that, they had been a continuous presence in Parliament, where they represented the Catholic voice in NI, since the 1970s. The present parliament is the first since the long-gone days when the Unionist Party returned all of NI's MPs, that NI's representation in Parliament has come from one party only (although there is 1 independent MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon in North Down).
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,734
    edited January 15
    Labour NEC elections

    Yasmine Dar (Left) 68,388 votes – elected
    Jon Lansman (Left) 65,163 – elected
    Rachel Garnham (Left) 62,982 – elected

    Eddie Izzard (Labour First and co) 39,508
    Johanna Baxter (Labour First and co) 27,234
    Gurinder Singh Josan (Labour First and co) 25,224

    Nick Donovan 11,944
    Nicola Morrison 7,551
    Sarah Taylor 7,011

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813
    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the CPS will regret this. If, as it seems apparent, the fight was part of trying to protect a couple from a homophobic assault then I find it hard to imagine a jury will want to convict.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    I think trying to extradite Steve Smith on charges of GBH in relation to the England bowling is unlikely to succeed....
  • Suspending/sacking someone at 5.29am.

    Eesh, my record is 7.30am
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    Shouldn't that be a pre-requisite of sitting on a jury? What was the Tebbit Test for otherwise?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,734
    edited January 15
    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,366

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the CPS will regret this. If, as it seems apparent, the fight was part of trying to protect a couple from a homophobic assault then I find it hard to imagine a jury will want to convict.

    I doubt the CPS will care.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    edited January 15

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    A bit like the jury of Liverpudlians who were once asked their view of Steven Gerrard.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,334

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,813

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the CPS will regret this. If, as it seems apparent, the fight was part of trying to protect a couple from a homophobic assault then I find it hard to imagine a jury will want to convict.

    I doubt the CPS will care.

    Considering how atrocious their decisions are these days I suspect you might be right.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,474

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,788

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

    Yes, Keighley was another 'bellweather' which returned an MP from the winning party nationally every election but one from 1959-2015 (1979 being the exception, when Labour held on by just 78 votes), but which went Labour this last time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335

    Labour NEC elections

    Yasmine Dar (Left) 68,388 votes – elected
    Jon Lansman (Left) 65,163 – elected
    Rachel Garnham (Left) 62,982 – elected

    Eddie Izzard (Labour First and co) 39,508
    Johanna Baxter (Labour First and co) 27,234
    Gurinder Singh Josan (Labour First and co) 25,224

    Nick Donovan 11,944
    Nicola Morrison 7,551
    Sarah Taylor 7,011

    I remember debating that here with another poster who was convinced that Jon Lansman would miss out - I was sure the three would get it. That said, it would be a mistake to think that the membership is 2/3 solidly left-wing on almost everything. I'd say about 45% are, and another 35% or so simply want Corbyn to have a clear run without too much squabbling. 20% still nourish considerable doubts but are mostly sitting on them for the moment. Eddie's result is quite good, and to some extent may reflect name recognition plus wanting a space for a trans person.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    West Tyrone had a unionist MP as recently as 1997 (largely because the SDLP and Sinn Fein split the nationalist vote almost exactly). Surely a safe Sinn Fein hold, even with the circumstances of Mr McElduff's departure.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,788

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    Or they're quick at doing it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    Or they're quick at doing it.
    Or they're smart enough to have figured out that they don't need to bother.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,366

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    Or they're quick at doing it.
    Or they're smart enough to have figured out that they don't need to bother.
    I was going to reply to you, but then decided there was no point...
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 615

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

    Yes, Keighley was another 'bellweather' which returned an MP from the winning party nationally every election but one from 1959-2015 (1979 being the exception, when Labour held on by just 78 votes), but which went Labour this last time.
    I live next door to Crawley. If Labour win the next election I doubt they'll take Crawley unless it is a national landslide. Crawley isn't particularly wealthy but has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the whole country. It is a constituency of working class grafters where Corbynism isn't likely to be at all popular now it's a credible threat, even amongst the fairly large ethnic minority population.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    It's triable either way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

    ― Bill Gates
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour. Labour has locked itself into Corbynism and like any infestation -they will be mighty hard to get rid of.

    Corbyn's supporters might be in a state of hubris now, but what happens if Labour is defeated for a fourth general election in a row? What happens even if there were a Corbyn government which would be a total disaster -as it would be -and it was swept away in a Tory landslide at the following election. Labour would then be in a much much worse position than it was in the early 80s -it would be infested by the hard left, with no means of removing it.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

    ― Bill Gates
    I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and diligent -- their place is the General Staff. The next lot are stupid and lazy -- they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and the composure necessary for difficult decisions. One must beware of anyone who is stupid and diligent -- he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always cause only mischief.

    Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord
  • FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Eagles, not heard of William James Sidis before. I hope he managed to stay well-adjusted, I imagine it could be quite difficult coping with being smarter than everyone else by a huge amount.

    The claims made about William Sidis's IQ were made by his sister, who seems to have been a bit of a fibber. He was very clever, but it's doubtful he was the cleverest man in history. I'd cast my lot for the hominid who invented the wheel.
    If he is the cleverest man in history, then according to http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx that is around 100 billion souls...

    IQ is defined as a mean of 100 and sigma of 15.

    6.806502σ is given as 1/100 000 000 000 probability which is ~ 102.

    So the IQ of the smartest person ever to have lived should be 202. If that was him then that is his IQ.

    Edit: Sorry should be ~ 200 I think as you need to halve the 1/100m to 1/50m which drops the IQ marginally (Not everyone is brighter than average !)

    So 200 is the max.
    It's the *expected* max. The actual one could be a fair bit higher (or, less likely, lower), as very small subsets become more random. There's no reason why the first 100bn shouldn't contain the most intelligent person in the first trillion. Unfortunately, she was a peasant in the sixth century.
    That reminds me of an argument that the reason we fail to detect other intelligent civilisations out there is because maybe there are not any other yet, maybe we are the first and will become the "mysterious ancient civilisation" for others to stumble across in time to come.

    The argument is that lifetime of the universe is vast - 100 trillion years or some such. It started 14 billion years ago so therefore only 14x10^9 / 10^14 = 14 / 100000 = 0.014% of the universe's estimated life (assuming no issues arise with false vacuum instability).
    Other intelligent civilisations? I think we overestimate ourselves sometimes. We are basically nearly hairless monkeys that cant even agree on whether fruit is a suitable topping on a heated edible disk.

    (Hides behind desk)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,446
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Eagles, all the dogs I've had have been either 'proper' border collies or a variant. The incumbent is a pure border collie and very daft in some ways. The smartest by a mile was the first hound, part-border collie, part-something else (poodle or labrador seem likeliest).
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,002
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

    ― Bill Gates
    I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and diligent -- their place is the General Staff. The next lot are stupid and lazy -- they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and the composure necessary for difficult decisions. One must beware of anyone who is stupid and diligent -- he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always cause only mischief.

    Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord
    Still by far the best management model. Find your clever-lazies, and promote them.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    It's triable either way.
    Ah, I thought it was going up to the big court.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

    ― Bill Gates
    Funnily enough the much diminished Cracked.com has that one on a list published just today of 'Inspirational quotes everyone gets wrong', though obviously a comedic website is no definitive source either.

    http://www.cracked.com/pictofacts-867-20-inspirational-quotes-that-everyone-gets-wrong/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,446
    Mr. F, indeed. It's very depressing. The Conservatives need to sort themselves out for the next election.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426
    "The effect of this is that the Ulster Catholic community has been without a political voice in London for many years. "

    They are in London, they do go to things. Just not the House of Commons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    Anazina said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    When selecting for Medical School or postgraduate level intelligence is a given, but persistence and ability to learn from experience are what I look for.

    The world is full of lazy intelligent people who have squandered their talents. Give me a grafter any day, someone who is willing to do the hard work and enjoy it.

    Agreed. Enthusiasm really matters
    Most lazy intelligent people are lazy because they are doing the wrong thing.
    “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

    ― Bill Gates
    I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and diligent -- their place is the General Staff. The next lot are stupid and lazy -- they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and the composure necessary for difficult decisions. One must beware of anyone who is stupid and diligent -- he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always cause only mischief.

    Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord
    Still by far the best management model. Find your clever-lazies, and promote them.
    The German military has its advantages and disadvantages as a management model!

    For those really interested in such things Stephen Bungay has written really quite an interesting book on the Imperial German General Staff management approach:

    http://www.stephenbungay.com/Books.ink

    His book on the Battle of Britain from a management Consultant approachis interesting too:




  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Eagles, not heard of William James Sidis before. I hope he managed to stay well-adjusted, I imagine it could be quite difficult coping with being smarter than everyone else by a huge amount.

    The claims made about William Sidis's IQ were made by his sister, who seems to have been a bit of a fibber. He was very clever, but it's doubtful he was the cleverest man in history. I'd cast my lot for the hominid who invented the wheel.
    If he is the cleverest man in history, then according to http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx that is around 100 billion souls...

    IQ is defined as a mean of 100 and sigma of 15.

    6.806502σ is given as 1/100 000 000 000 probability which is ~ 102.

    So the IQ of the smartest person ever to have lived should be 202. If that was him then that is his IQ.

    Edit: Sorry should be ~ 200 I think as you need to halve the 1/100m to 1/50m which drops the IQ marginally (Not everyone is brighter than average !)

    So 200 is the max.
    It's the *expected* max. The actual one could be a fair bit higher (or, less likely, lower), as very small subsets become more random. There's no reason why the first 100bn shouldn't contain the most intelligent person in the first trillion. Unfortunately, she was a peasant in the sixth century.
    That reminds me of an argument that the reason we fail to detect other intelligent civilisations out there is because maybe there are not any other yet, maybe we are the first and will become the "mysterious ancient civilisation" for others to stumble across in time to come.

    The argument is that lifetime of the universe is vast - 100 trillion years or some such. It started 14 billion years ago so therefore only 14x10^9 / 10^14 = 14 / 100000 = 0.014% of the universe's estimated life (assuming no issues arise with false vacuum instability).
    Other intelligent civilisations? I think we overestimate ourselves sometimes. We are basically nearly hairless monkeys that cant even agree on whether fruit is a suitable topping on a heated edible disk.

    (Hides behind desk)
    And elect a marmalade coloured monster to run one country and a robotic puppet to run our own ...

    It would probably be safer if we stuck to arguing about pizza :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Eagles, not heard of William James Sidis before. I hope he managed to stay well-adjusted, I imagine it could be quite difficult coping with being smarter than everyone else by a huge amount.

    The claims made about William Sidis's IQ were made by his sister, who seems to have been a bit of a fibber. He was very clever, but it's doubtful he was the cleverest man in history. I'd cast my lot for the hominid who invented the wheel.
    If he is the cleverest man in history, then according to http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx that is around 100 billion souls...

    IQ is defined as a mean of 100 and sigma of 15.

    6.806502σ is given as 1/100 000 000 000 probability which is ~ 102.

    So the IQ of the smartest person ever to have lived should be 202. If that was him then that is his IQ.

    Edit: Sorry should be ~ 200 I think as you need to halve the 1/100m to 1/50m which drops the IQ marginally (Not everyone is brighter than average !)

    So 200 is the max.
    It's the *expected* max. The actual one could be a fair bit higher (or, less likely, lower), as very small subsets become more random. There's no reason why the first 100bn shouldn't contain the most intelligent person in the first trillion. Unfortunately, she was a peasant in the sixth century.
    That reminds me of an argument that the reason we fail to detect other intelligent civilisations out there is because maybe there are not any other yet, maybe we are the first and will become the "mysterious ancient civilisation" for others to stumble across in time to come.

    The argument is that lifetime of the universe is vast - 100 trillion years or some such. It started 14 billion years ago so therefore only 14x10^9 / 10^14 = 14 / 100000 = 0.014% of the universe's estimated life (assuming no issues arise with false vacuum instability).
    Other intelligent civilisations? I think we overestimate ourselves sometimes. We are basically nearly hairless monkeys that cant even agree on whether fruit is a suitable topping on a heated edible disk.

    (Hides behind desk)
    Our willingness to accept different views on that subject is the very hallmark of our civilization!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,733

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the CPS will regret this. If, as it seems apparent, the fight was part of trying to protect a couple from a homophobic assault then I find it hard to imagine a jury will want to convict.
    They might take the view that Stokes pursued the other guys over and above what was necessary for him to protect anyone from abuse or assault. And watching the footage, they would have a case if that was their view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.it.

    Doesn't that mean they have become what they hate the most - The Establishment (of Labour)?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452
    Is it true that Damian Green was in charge of the Carillon contingency planning ... ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,446
    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    kle4 said:

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.it.

    Doesn't that mean they have become what they hate the most - The Establishment (of Labour)?
    This is different.

    They do not mind when power is concentrated in the correct hands and they are in no doubt as to whose hands those are ;)
  • Nigelb said:

    Is it true that Damian Green was in charge of the Carillon contingency planning ... ?

    Yah.

    Government insiders insisted they had been “tracking developments at Carillion for weeks” and that contingency planning had been under way for some time under Damian Green, Mr Lidington’s predecessor.

    https://www.ft.com/content/944f4f46-f8b3-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    Nigelb said:

    Is it true that Damian Green was in charge of the Carillon contingency planning ... ?

    Yah.

    Government insiders insisted they had been “tracking developments at Carillion for weeks” and that contingency planning had been under way for some time under Damian Green, Mr Lidington’s predecessor.

    https://www.ft.com/content/944f4f46-f8b3-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167
    Nothing to worry about, then...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,788
    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is it true that Damian Green was in charge of the Carillon contingency planning ... ?

    Yah.

    Government insiders insisted they had been “tracking developments at Carillion for weeks” and that contingency planning had been under way for some time under Damian Green, Mr Lidington’s predecessor.

    https://www.ft.com/content/944f4f46-f8b3-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167
    Nothing to worry about, then...
    I find your lack of faith in Mrs May's chumocracy very disturbing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is it true that Damian Green was in charge of the Carillon contingency planning ... ?

    Yah.

    Government insiders insisted they had been “tracking developments at Carillion for weeks” and that contingency planning had been under way for some time under Damian Green, Mr Lidington’s predecessor.

    https://www.ft.com/content/944f4f46-f8b3-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167
    Nothing to worry about, then...
    I find your lack of faith in Mrs May's chumocracy very disturbing.
    As do I.
  • kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    edited January 15

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

    Yes, Keighley was another 'bellweather' which returned an MP from the winning party nationally every election but one from 1959-2015 (1979 being the exception, when Labour held on by just 78 votes), but which went Labour this last time.
    Watford has been a bellwether seat since February 1974. (Labour squeezed out very narrow wins in 1951 and 1970).

    Dartford, Gravesham, Chatham used to be bellwether seats, but are now probably only winnable for Labour in very good years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    Granted, it's not as catchy as Praise-God Barebone, but that is a great name.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335
    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour. Labour has locked itself into Corbynism and like any infestation -they will be mighty hard to get rid of.

    Corbyn's supporters might be in a state of hubris now, but what happens if Labour is defeated for a fourth general election in a row? What happens even if there were a Corbyn government which would be a total disaster -as it would be -and it was swept away in a Tory landslide at the following election. Labour would then be in a much much worse position than it was in the early 80s -it would be infested by the hard left, with no means of removing it.

    It's a recurrent election. If the membership feels it's turned out badly, they'll elect someone else next time. Much like democracy in any other part of the system.

    You've expressed your view of Corbyn and left-wing policies many times here. If you're right they will prove to fail, OK: having a Corbyn government that doesn't work well (subject as it would be to support from centrist MPs and probably other parties) is the only plausible way to change the balance of opinion that worries you. If Corbyn narrowly fails to win or, worse, wins but is then immediately undermined by defections, then we'll just get into "one more heave territory" and it will all carry on until he or his successor gets a chance.

    Essentially democracy needs a variety of political opinions to be tried, so that we can see how they work out. It's not as though the current Government was setting records for excellence. Operating on a permanent basis that we're allowed to try anything except socialism is not a reasonable democratic strategy. Brexit, sure! A decade of austerity? OK! But not policies aiming to help poorer people?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    The small matter of pledging allegiance to HM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    For a while the tyranical by the Burmese Junta was done in the name of the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

    George Orwell was at home in Burma.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452
    Who would have thought two years ago that this kind of headline about the new US president would be entirely routine ?

    Racism charges swarm Trump as 'shithole' debate rattles immigration talks
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 883
    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    If only a voting system existed that could allow for preferences to be transferred, to prevent a split between 2 closer parties allowing a very different party to win on a low vote share.

    Sadly there is no Alternative.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,969
    edited January 15
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    Granted, it's not as catchy as Praise-God Barebone, but that is a great name.
    I prefer his Christened name

    Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour. Labour has locked itself into Corbynism and like any infestation -they will be mighty hard to get rid of.

    Corbyn's supporters might be in a state of hubris now, but what happens if Labour is defeated for a fourth general election in a row? What happens even if there were a Corbyn government which would be a total disaster -as it would be -and it was swept away in a Tory landslide at the following election. Labour would then be in a much much worse position than it was in the early 80s -it would be infested by the hard left, with no means of removing it.

    Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452
    edited January 15
    It seem that Carillion did very little itself other than outsource work to other companies.

    If government was outsourcing work to someone (who clearly wasn't very good at it) to do the outsourcing for them, why outsource it in the first place ?

    Civil servants could have at least done an equally crap job, but for less pay, and financed the work at a much lower cost of borrowing.
    I suppose the worst they could have done would be to bankrupt the entire nation, but that seems unlikely...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Indeed, though presumably the SF councillors and at Stormont have come up with an acceptable form of solution, as have the Dail members in the South. Indeed with Stormont suspended then the issue is even more pertinent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    For a while the tyranical by the Burmese Junta was done in the name of the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

    George Orwell was at home in Burma.
    The 2014 Thai coup led to the National Council for Peace and Order. There are others going by National Council for Democracy and Development, Supreme Council for National Reconstruction, and others too many to mention.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,788
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    tpfkar said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    If only a voting system existed that could allow for preferences to be transferred, to prevent a split between 2 closer parties allowing a very different party to win on a low vote share.

    Sadly there is no Alternative.
    Indeed so :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,022
    Sean_F said:

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

    Yes, Keighley was another 'bellweather' which returned an MP from the winning party nationally every election but one from 1959-2015 (1979 being the exception, when Labour held on by just 78 votes), but which went Labour this last time.
    Watford has been a bellwether seat since February 1974. (Labour squeezed out very narrow wins in 1951 and 1970).

    Dartford, Gravesham, Chatham used to be bellwether seats, but are now probably only winnable for Labour in very good years.
    Chatham was, in (I think) 1966 the site of one of the classic heckles. Harold Wilson was addressing a large meeting on Labour policies and reached Defence. ‘Why’ he cried ‘do I emphasise the role of the Royal Navy?’
    ‘Because you’re in Chatham’ came a loud cry.

    Chatham, for younger readers, was an important Naval base.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    Granted, it's not as catchy as Praise-God Barebone, but that is a great name.
    I prefer his Christened name

    Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone
    I never got tiered of the Discworld joke of characters from a formerly violent evangelical religion with now much more moderate names, like Visit-The-Infidel-With-Explanatory-Pamphlets and Smite-The-Unbeliever-With-Cunning-Arguments.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    Sean_F said:

    Labour parliamentary selections held during the weekend

    Milton Keynes North: Charlynne Pullen (same candidate as 2017)
    Corby: Beth Miller (same candidate as 2017)
    Northampton South: Gareth Eales (local Cllr)
    Crawley: Peter Lamb (local council leader)

    Since it's creation in 1983, the Crawley constituency has always returned an MP of the same party as the PM. So if Mr Lamb wins, which seems perfectly possible given the Tories' majority there of just two-and-a-half thousand, then is it PM Jezza time?
    These rules can get broken. Where I live, Bedford, has only ever returned a LAB MP when the party won a working majority. Thus 1945 not 1950, 1966 not 1964 and from 1997 to 2010. Then came LAB taking the seat at GE17.

    Yes, Keighley was another 'bellweather' which returned an MP from the winning party nationally every election but one from 1959-2015 (1979 being the exception, when Labour held on by just 78 votes), but which went Labour this last time.
    Watford has been a bellwether seat since February 1974. (Labour squeezed out very narrow wins in 1951 and 1970).

    Dartford, Gravesham, Chatham used to be bellwether seats, but are now probably only winnable for Labour in very good years.
    Loughborough and Broxtowe are other Bellwethers that look as if they might turn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,022

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
    1918?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,363
    edited January 15

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
    Is that right? I thought the first woman to be elected was a SF lady in 1918, but refused to take up the seat so presumed the party had stood back them?

    Apologies for the mistake, but if what you say is right the point is emphasised - they refused to even stand for a long time, it'd be another huge huge step to actually take up seats, when some major events have still happened since the 1980s.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    Granted, it's not as catchy as Praise-God Barebone, but that is a great name.
    I prefer his Christened name

    Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone
    I never got tiered of the Discworld joke of characters from a formerly violent evangelical religion with now much more moderate names, like Visit-The-Infidel-With-Explanatory-Pamphlets and Smite-The-Unbeliever-With-Cunning-Arguments.
    Was always amused that the fifth horseman of the apocalypse was called Ronnie Soak.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,840

    Was always amused that the fifth horseman of the apocalypse was called Ronnie Soak.

    SPOILER ALERT !!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, nonsense, comrade. The Committee of Public Safety will do wonderful work.

    That raises an interesting point (to me anyway) - why is it only military juntas who still run countries by committees with silly names?

    This country was also once effectively run by the Committee of Safety.
    Which had the wonderfully named Sir Bulstrode Whitelocke as a member of said committee.
    Granted, it's not as catchy as Praise-God Barebone, but that is a great name.
    I prefer his Christened name

    Unless-Jesus-Christ-Had-Died-For-Thee-Thou-Hadst-Been-Damned Barebone
    There was a Parliamentary officer called Hew-Agag-in-Pieces-Before-the-Lord.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
    Is that right? I thought the first woman to be elected was a SF lady in 1918, but refused to take up the seat so presumed the party had stood back them?

    Apologies for the mistake, but if what you say is right the point is emphasised - they refused to even stand for a long time, it'd be another huge huge step to actually take up seats, when some major events have still happened since the 1980s.
    They contested some seats in the 1950's.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
    Is that right? I thought the first woman to be elected was a SF lady in 1918, but refused to take up the seat so presumed the party had stood back them?
    It's worth mentioning Bernadette Devlin, who did take her seat in 1969 after standing on a non-abstentionist ticket. This interview is a fascinating window into another time.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,537

    God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

    Ditto the jury.

    Given the dire performance of the England team, both on and off the pitch, surely that means they'd convict? ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
    Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:



    Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,788
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Surprised to see they did have a unionist MP not that long ago. But as you say, doesn't look like the SDLP are likely to split the vote so perfectly for the DUP to nab it, or win it themselves.

    Though surely the combination of May needing the DUP, and the Brexit border issue being critical, then it would serve the interests of Irish Nationalism for SF to take up their seats.

    Perhaps, but I find it difficult to believe there have been no other instances in the last 100 years when that might have been true, and yet the party has steadfastedly refused to do so, even as several MPs these-days swear the required oaths in effect with fingers crossed because of the whole swearing to the queen business. Why alter that stance now?
    Sinn Fein have only been contesting Westminster elections since the early 1980s.
    Is that right? I thought the first woman to be elected was a SF lady in 1918, but refused to take up the seat so presumed the party had stood back them?

    Apologies for the mistake, but if what you say is right the point is emphasised - they refused to even stand for a long time, it'd be another huge huge step to actually take up seats, when some major events have still happened since the 1980s.
    Yes, you're quite right: SF contested the 1918 election. However, that was 'old' Sinn Fein, and related to the south of Ireland. After the turmoil of the Anglo-Irish War, the Division and the Civil War, they lost cohesion. I think they might have stood candidates at some election in the 1950s too?

    Anyway, they had an abstentionist position during the early part of the Troubles, not only from sitting in parliament but from standing for it too. I agree that for them to sit would be a difficult step (and one that would perhaps undermine a little the role of Stormont, giving them another incentive not to).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    edited January 15

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
    If Labour do fall behind in the polls, Corbyn can always point out that the polls got it wrong in June, and that a good campaign can turn round a dire situation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
    Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:



    Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
    It's remarkably little change since June, allowing for a small shift from Con to UKIP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465

    I agree that for them to sit would be a difficult step (and one that would perhaps undermine a little the role of Stormont, giving them another incentive not to).

    If they perceive that we're close to the endgame of reunification, perhaps undermining Stormont might be seen as a good thing from their perspective.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,171
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the CPS will regret this. If, as it seems apparent, the fight was part of trying to protect a couple from a homophobic assault then I find it hard to imagine a jury will want to convict.
    They might take the view that Stokes pursued the other guys over and above what was necessary for him to protect anyone from abuse or assault. And watching the footage, they would have a case if that was their view.
    Reasonable force ? in a high profile case some years back , shooting a burglar in the back as he was running away was not seen as reasonable force.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
    Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

    Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
    Topped up? Labour are down slightly from their peak (and they peaked a bit too late by the looks of things!)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125

    I agree that for them to sit would be a difficult step (and one that would perhaps undermine a little the role of Stormont, giving them another incentive not to).

    If they perceive that we're close to the endgame of reunification, perhaps undermining Stormont might be seen as a good thing from their perspective.
    I think that they have very little interest in seeing Stormont get up and running again.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

    [snip]

    Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

    1. MPs
    2. The NEC
    3. Conference
    4. The membership

    The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
    All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
    Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:



    Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
    The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price. Labour is level pegging with the Tories in the polls -it should be doing much better. However, I reamin of the view that if there is one thing that be worse for Labour in the long run than defeat in 2022 would be a Corbyn government. It would be such a catastrophe since he is so ill suited for government, it would gift power to the Tories for decades. And Labour would be locked into it.
This discussion has been closed.