On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
I believe Labour's working class vote does largely think Brexit is settled and it is not a big issue for them.
If Labour was primarily a working class party, there would be no problem. Labour could simply represent its working class voters' views and interests.
But, it isn't.
Labour is riddled with the most unpleasant invasive species known, the middle class. The Public Sector Elite. The Professors. The Pension Lawyers. The Museum Directors. The Tristram Hunts.
They are the Japanese Knotweed of politics. And they care deeply about the EU.
Labour is in just as much as a dilemma as the Tories on Brexit.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
Corbyn in 2017 just rallied all the left behind him, LDs, SNP and Greens etc. There is little further for him to squeeze there next time
Disclaimer - I have known a great many very left wing members of Labour on a personal basis and I do not know of one who has been antisemitic. However, I also used to be an academic many moons ago and after working professionally with UCU I am shall we say wary of some of the more interesting tropes on Israel and what they hide. Jenna Delich springs to mind.
Fair enough - there are certainly some anti-semitic people around, and they have no place in Labour.
Unrelatedly, I disagree with the replacement of Ann Black, who was a very sensible chair of the disputes committee, and have written to her to say so and we've discussed it, though I won't publish private correspondence.
The other things listed rehash old issues selectively to give the impression of a broad-based plot. Reluctantly running through the list: the Haringay rebels are curious mix of left and right and are all about replacement of old council houses with a shiny new development, on which views are very strongly divided. The council leader quoted is free to pledge to support the leadership if he wishes: why shouldn't he? One of the people criticised is quoted as opposing campaigns to target individuals: good. One of the short-listees for the Hastings selection does indeed sound very peculiar and I trust is not selected. A local councillor mentioned sounds like the type of zealot who I mentioned in my own piece - not explicitly anti-semitic but an apologist for Palestinian extremism. I'm not saying all these examples are wonderful people - I don't know any of them. But out of 550K members they don't add up to anything.
The simple counter-example: Momentum-supported candidates have been defeated in most selections up to now and with one exception (Luton) they've accepted their defeats without fuss.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
Given the Tories got 37% in 2010 too and in 2005 they were facing Blair and not Corbyn I doubt there will be much movement in that direction
Blair was much weaker in 2005 and probably a liability to Labour by that time. Labour would probably have performed better under Brown in 2005.
Perhaps and Brown would not have lost so many to Charles Kennedy but Blair would likely have done better than Brown in 2010 and not lost so many to Clegg and Cameron
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
It's tempting to think of Tory voters in 2017 as all "Tories" with the image that conjures up. But of course they aren't. They are a mixed bag. Many are loyal core Tories but many are not. It is those that are not dedicated Tories that are the swing voters available to Labour and Libdems. I would guess that a quarter of the current 40% Tory share is up for grabs.
The Labour share is also a mixed bag but I'm guessing not much of it is available to the Tories. There is a lump of about 50% which is permanently anti-Tory shared between Labour, LibDem and Green - mainly Labour at the moment.
Some of the current Tory vote who voted for Blair might be available to a centrist Labour leader, they will certainly not be available to Corbyn
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
For the cost of a big LHR expansion, I imagine they could compensate every actually displaced resident by 200% of their house values (or 10 years' rent for tenants) without changing the overall cost significantly.
Went googling, and apparently the current compensation bill is 1.5bn, based on market value+25%.
For the cost of a big LHR expansion, I imagine they could compensate every actually displaced resident by 200% of their house values (or 10 years' rent for tenants) without changing the overall cost significantly.
Went googling, and apparently the current compensation bill is 1.5bn, based on market value+25%.
Much much cheaper to build at Gatwick. The new draft Airports National Policy Statement shows the economic benefits of Heathrow v Gatwick are now finely balanced, and the total benefits of Heathrow “are slightly lower than would be delivered by Gatwick expansion over the full 60-year assessment”. Gatwick is shovel ready and there is much less local resistance. It might actually get built.
The problem is egg on face for a Government U-turn and the very unhealthy interchange of senior personnel between Heathrow and Department of Transport. It's a racket between government and big business to coin a phrase.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
Yes, the Tories need to keep UKIP squeezed
Yes - I wondered whether Bolton's girlfriend was a Tory plant to keep the mayhem going!
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
A genuine question - why suspiciously so ?
I wondered whether Bolton's girlfriend was a Tory plant to keep the mayhem going!
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
At the moment it looks like 2022 will be like 2017 in reverse ie a hung Parliament where Corbyn has to scrape together a government rather than a hung Parliament where May has to scrape together a government. Until Labour gets back to the centre and while Brexit remains an issue there will be little change between the two main parties
I think that's right.
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
A genuine question - why suspiciously so ?
I wondered whether Bolton's girlfriend was a Tory plant to keep the mayhem going!
I don't think the party needs to worry about keeping the mayhem going.
They are likely to be gone very shortly and the sooner the better
A very sensible comment section. Who knows how the EU will look in 10 - 20 years. It may even have got rid of Brussels and failed to federalise
I agree. Alternatively, we might see the formalisation of an associate membership scheme, which could include the UK, Turkey, Ukraine and perhaps even the EFTA countries. I’m genuinely interested to see the EU’s direction of travel post Brexit.
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
If a sensible settlement is prevented by division on the UK side, and in the meantime the UK goes into a standstill transition, what do the EU27 have to be afraid of?
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
If a sensible settlement is prevented by division on the UK side, and in the meantime the UK goes into a standstill transition, what do the EU27 have to be afraid of?
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
If a sensible settlement is prevented by division on the UK side, and in the meantime the UK goes into a standstill transition, what do the EU27 have to be afraid of?
Themselves and their unelected elite
If the UK is left in transitional limbo, why should they care about it?
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
The proposition to us will be "take it or leave it", which is a problem in itself. The consensus they are going for now is what the "it" is. The EU and member states don't necessarily have an incentive to be generous.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
I think you may just have indulged in wishful thinking.
The way politics are it is equally possible Corbyn's hard left could be in the low thirties.
The truth is none of us have a clue
It would be interesting if the polls move in one direction or the other during 2018 but I have a feeling they're going to stay exactly where they are now.
I suspect Leave right has seen a mini-boost because Brexit has fallen out of the news cycle. It will be back by March at the latest. The EU is in intensive consensus building right now before issuing the fait accompli March time. People won't like what they hear. Amongst other things that the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement won't contain any reference at all to a trade deal. Expect the "absurd" adjective to make a comeback before the inevitable cave.
Lets wait and see
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
If a sensible settlement is prevented by division on the UK side, and in the meantime the UK goes into a standstill transition, what do the EU27 have to be afraid of?
Themselves and their unelected elite
If the UK is left in transitional limbo, why should they care about it?
You really do worship the EU.
They care all right -The Dutch, Spain, Italy, Ireland and others have demanded only this week that the UK is given a special trade deal.
I did say that I am not going to engage with the extreme groups on both remain and leave and you are most certainly an extreme remainer so there is no point in me engaging any further with you
Sorry Theresa doesn't "do" boldness... If your looking for bold, exciting, visionary, TM isn't your PM - They knew what they were getting when they elected her so they can't complain.
This is sensible if May puts some meat behind it, rather than waffle. UK commitment to supporting European security is something EU members are interested in and is one of the bits of leverage we have.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
I think you may just have indulged in wishful thinking.
The way politics are it is equally possible Corbyn's hard left could be in the low thirties.
The truth is none of us have a clue
It would be interesting if the polls move in one direction or the other during 2018 but I have a feeling they're going to stay exactly where they are now.
You are probably right but if the hard left takeover of labour continues we may even see labour slipping apart from in their Metropolitan areas
In the long term, even if we eventually rejoin the single market after bringing Eastern European migration to the UK under control, Brexit was probably the right thing to do as the EU splits into a Eurozone inner core (perhaps even heading towards a United States of Europe) and a non Eurozone outer tier perhaps focused on a reformed EFTA
Economic pressures are hard to resist whatever the political setup. Brexit does give the UK a few levers to pull that it doesn't have in the EU which might enable it to reduce Eastern European migration. But the difference in wages is going to make those workers attractive to UK employers, and make UK jobs attractive to those workers. Unless we propose a total ban and complete repatriation, there are going to be one heck of a lot of people with an incentive to keep migration as high as they can manage. Remember that most immigration as come from outside the EU anyway. We had the power to stop most of that and we didn't.
I don't think there is any way Brexit is going to reduce migration enough for it to be noticeable. I think there is a very good chance it will actually go up.
Net migration has already fallen by 100 000 since the Brexit vote.
However, the key thing is to make up for Blair's failure to follow most EU nations and impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries from 2004 to 2011
Well as we haven't left yet the only explanation for the fall is that Britain is now a less attractive place to live. Speaking personally I'd say that the upcoming downgrade has certainly made me less happy about living here.
I think the explanation is a lot simpler than that: growth has returned to the Eurozone, and unemployment is falling there. And if you are an Eastern European economic migrant and want to go to a country with very low unemployment where jobs are plentiful, then why not go to Germany, where the cost of living is very much lower than in the UK. (And, of course, where wages have risen sharply compared to the UK when you take into account the depreciation of sterling.)
This is sensible if May puts some meat behind it, rather than waffle. UK commitment to supporting European security is something EU members are interested in and is one of the bits of leverage we have.
Wait, I though it couldn't be used as a negotiating tactic?
This is sensible if May puts some meat behind it, rather than waffle. UK commitment to supporting European security is something EU members are interested in and is one of the bits of leverage we have.
Wait, I though it couldn't be used as a negotiating tactic?
Threatening to withdraw it is an ineffective tactic, but maintaining and building on it is an effective way to build trust.
Given the venue of the Munich Security Conference I'd expect her to build on her earlier comments about the threat from Russia, as well as their activity in information warfare.
In the long term, even if we eventually rejoin the single market after bringing Eastern European migration to the UK under control, Brexit was probably the right thing to do as the EU splits into a Eurozone inner core (perhaps even heading towards a United States of Europe) and a non Eurozone outer tier perhaps focused on a reformed EFTA
Economic pressures are hard to resist whatever the political setup. Brexit does give the UK a few levers to pull that it doesn't have in the EU which might enable it to reduce Eastern European migration. But the difference in wages is going to make those workers attractive to UK employers, and make UK jobs attractive to those workers. Unless we propose a total ban and complete repatriation, there are going to be one heck of a lot of people with an incentive to keep migration as high as they can manage. Remember that most immigration as come from outside the EU anyway. We had the power to stop most of that and we didn't.
I don't think there is any way Brexit is going to reduce migration enough for it to be noticeable. I think there is a very good chance it will actually go up.
Net migration has already fallen by 100 000 since the Brexit vote.
However, the key thing is to make up for Blair's failure to follow most EU nations and impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries from 2004 to 2011
Well as we haven't left yet the only explanation for the fall is that Britain is now a less attractive place to live. Speaking personally I'd say that the upcoming downgrade has certainly made me less happy about living here.
I think the explanation is a lot simpler than that: growth has returned to the Eurozone, and unemployment is falling there. And if you are an Eastern European economic migrant and want to go to a country with very low unemployment where jobs are plentiful, then why not go to Germany, where the cost of living is very much lower than in the UK. (And, of course, where wages have risen sharply compared to the UK when you take into account the depreciation of sterling.)
I believe that the exchange rate impact on calculations of working home/ away bottom line is significant if "home" is still "home", and is largely ignored.
This is sensible if May puts some meat behind it, rather than waffle. UK commitment to supporting European security is something EU members are interested in and is one of the bits of leverage we have.
Wait, I though it couldn't be used as a negotiating tactic?
You need to play the security card with a bit of subtlety, ie not as Mrs May did when she threatened to withdraw security cooperation unless the EU signed on the dotted line. Security is closely aligned with trust. No offer of mutual support is likely to be completely unconditional but partners have to trust you will support them when they need help. Without trust security doesn't have any currency. The thing is to make yourself interesting to the other party so they will pay you more attention and are more likely to give you what you want. It's pretty simple. Instead of saying, "If you don't give us X we will stop Y", you say, "We will do Y for you. By the way, we are looking for X." There are other things where a straight X for Y will work. Money for example
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
Corbyn in 2017 just rallied all the left behind him, LDs, SNP and Greens etc. There is little further for him to squeeze there next time
He may not need to though, if the Tories falter more.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
Corbyn in 2017 just rallied all the left behind him, LDs, SNP and Greens etc. There is little further for him to squeeze there next time
He may not need to though, if the Tories falter more.
I believe that the exchange rate impact on calculations of working home/ away bottom line is significant if "home" is still "home", and is largely ignored.
I was thinking of the Polish builders who worked on our house a few years ago. Their families were still in Poland, they lived in bunks in hostels, and sent most of their money home.
If Sterling fell 20% against the Zloty, that meant that they were sending 20% less home. Now, given said migrants are already here and working, it will probably not encourage them to move to Germany. But if you were a young Polish builder deciding on where to go, German wages have risen 20% relative to UK ones. I believe that's had an impact.
(And, of course, it works in reverse too. The recent rise in Sterling, albeit still to levels well below that of 2015, is making the UK a little more attractive again.)
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
Corbyn in 2017 just rallied all the left behind him, LDs, SNP and Greens etc. There is little further for him to squeeze there next time
I understand your point , but I have little doubt - as a non-Corbynite - that Corbyn will enter the next election campaign with far more credibility than he entered the 2017 election. Whatever you and I might think of him, he is no longer perceived as the joke figure many portrayed him as being a year ago. So many - including myself - were proved wrong! It might well be a mistake to assume that he has reached the ceiling of support.
On the whole, I believe Labour can be fairly content with poll ratings of 41%/42%. I am rather more interested in the Tory vote share and am far from convinced that will remain at circa 40% as time moves on. At some point I can well see quite a few of their softer voters drifting off to the LibDems - particularly if austerity and public services become more salient issues.In due course I will not be surprised to see Tory support fall back to the 36% /37% levels seen in 2010 and 2015.
No, over half the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 are now voting Tory so the 40%+ the Tories are on is pretty solid now, especially while Corbyn leads Labour
But there were quite a few Tory voters in 2017 - and 2015 - who voted Libdem in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2005. I can forsee circumstances when such voters drift back to the LibDems.
The greater likelihood is the mass of soft-left Labour Remainers who see Corbyn doing nothing to stop Brexit will think "what's the point in Labour?".
I really don't think Brexit is such a big issue for many Labour supporters - and even the minority who have strong views will support Labour as the best anti -Tory option . I am sick to death with Brexit even as a fellow political anorak, and I am in no doubt that the electorate at large finds it a highly technical issue.I believe this was true at the 2017 election which was why so many were receptive to Corbyn and Labour raising other issues such as Austerity to which people can much better relate. I rather suspect that when back in campaigning mode a similar impact will be seen again - and this is probably not presently being picked up by polls.
Corbyn in 2017 just rallied all the left behind him, LDs, SNP and Greens etc. There is little further for him to squeeze there next time
He may not need to though, if the Tories falter more.
Corbyn has the luck of the Devil, or possibly just good political antennae.
He was on the right side in opposing the Iraq war, ran a brilliant Spring campaign by accidentally addressing a football crowd at Tranmere, and now is on the right side of the PFI meltdown, as one of very few parliamentarians who called it out from the beginning.
Of course he does have the advantage of having an incompetent opponent too.
I believe that the exchange rate impact on calculations of working home/ away bottom line is significant if "home" is still "home", and is largely ignored.
I was thinking of the Polish builders who worked on our house a few years ago. Their families were still in Poland, they lived in bunks in hostels, and sent most of their money home.
If Sterling fell 20% against the Zloty, that meant that they were sending 20% less home. Now, given said migrants are already here and working, it will probably not encourage them to move to Germany. But if you were a young Polish builder deciding on where to go, German wages have risen 20% relative to UK ones. I believe that's had an impact.
(And, of course, it works in reverse too. The recent rise in Sterling, albeit still to levels well below that of 2015, is making the UK a little more attractive again.)
Tis the same story that has depleted our Iberian nurses.
Just seen Darkest Hour.Could Jeremy Corbyn be Teresa May's biggest ally,her Clem Attlee," a sheep in wolf's clothing"? Also,dont know the historical accuracy,if any, of the scene on the underground? It looked to us as if it was very false, constructed for the US audience.
Up 33% 2011 to 2015, then losing almost all that since.
Perfect demonstration of the modern world really - vast flows of labour changing direction in short periods of time, solely because of numbers on a computer screen.
Sorry Theresa doesn't "do" boldness... If your looking for bold, exciting, visionary, TM isn't your PM - They knew what they were getting when they elected her so they can't complain.
Sorry but I don't agree. I don't respect Theresa and if I had a vote wouldn't have gone for her but you can expect normally anyone who becomes PM to raise their socks. She hasn't.
Just found out that one of the first hotels I ever stayed at in London, the Euston Thistle, is about to be demolished, although perhaps it won't be for a while if Carillion are in charge of the work.
I believe that the exchange rate impact on calculations of working home/ away bottom line is significant if "home" is still "home", and is largely ignored.
I was thinking of the Polish builders who worked on our house a few years ago. Their families were still in Poland, they lived in bunks in hostels, and sent most of their money home.
If Sterling fell 20% against the Zloty, that meant that they were sending 20% less home. Now, given said migrants are already here and working, it will probably not encourage them to move to Germany. But if you were a young Polish builder deciding on where to go, German wages have risen 20% relative to UK ones. I believe that's had an impact.
(And, of course, it works in reverse too. The recent rise in Sterling, albeit still to levels well below that of 2015, is making the UK a little more attractive again.)
Tis the same story that has depleted our Iberian nurses.
Just seen Darkest Hour.Could Jeremy Corbyn be Teresa May's biggest ally,her Clem Attlee," a sheep in wolf's clothing"? Also,dont know the historical accuracy,if any, of the scene on the underground? It looked to us as if it was very false, constructed for the US audience.
Abolutely no evidence for it. Churchill led public opinion. He never followed it. For good and bad. In this case good.
Sorry Theresa doesn't "do" boldness... If your looking for bold, exciting, visionary, TM isn't your PM - They knew what they were getting when they elected her so they can't complain.
Sorry but I don't agree. I don't respect Theresa and if I had a vote wouldn't have gone for her but you can expect normally anyone who becomes PM to raise their socks. She hasn't.
She has got us further in negotiations with the EU than her predecessor ever managed if nothing else
Sorry Theresa doesn't "do" boldness... If your looking for bold, exciting, visionary, TM isn't your PM - They knew what they were getting when they elected her so they can't complain.
Sorry but I don't agree. I don't respect Theresa and if I had a vote wouldn't have gone for her but you can expect normally anyone who becomes PM to raise their socks. She hasn't.
She has got us further in negotiations with the EU than her predecessor ever managed if nothing else
I don't agree. Her predecessor got us to the end of his particular negotiations. Whoever his successor was would have done the same for their own set.
Sorry Theresa doesn't "do" boldness... If your looking for bold, exciting, visionary, TM isn't your PM - They knew what they were getting when they elected her so they can't complain.
Sorry but I don't agree. I don't respect Theresa and if I had a vote wouldn't have gone for her but you can expect normally anyone who becomes PM to raise their socks. She hasn't.
She has got us further in negotiations with the EU than her predecessor ever managed if nothing else
I don't agree. Her predecessor got us to the end of his particular negotiations. Whoever his successor was would have done the same for their own set.
Her predecessor achieved the square root of sod all in his negotiations with the EU which was why we voted Leave and he had to leave Downing Street. May has already got through Phase 1 of the Brexit negotiations with the EU so FTA talks can commence while still committing to ultimately end free movement
In the long term, even if we eventually rejoin the single market after bringing Eastern European migration to the UK under control, Brexit was probably the right thing to do as the EU splits into a Eurozone inner core (perhaps even heading towards a United States of Europe) and a non Eurozone outer tier perhaps focused on a reformed EFTA
Economic pressures are hard to resist whatever the political setup. Brexit does give the UK a few levers to pull that it doesn't have in the EU which might enable it to reduce Eastern European migration. But the difference in wages is going to make those workers attractive to UK employers, and make UK jobs attractive to those workers. Unless we propose a total ban and complete repatriation, there are going to be one heck of a lot of people with an incentive to keep migration as high as they can manage. Remember that most immigration as come from outside the EU anyway. We had the power to stop most of that and we didn't.
I don't think there is any way Brexit is going to reduce migration enough for it to be noticeable. I think there is a very good chance it will actually go up.
Net migration has already fallen by 100 000 since the Brexit vote.
However, the key thing is to make up for Blair's failure to follow most EU nations and impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries from 2004 to 2011
Well as we haven't left yet the only explanation for the fall is that Britain is now a less attractive place to live. Speaking personally I'd say that the upcoming downgrade has certainly made me less happy about living here.
I think the explanation is a lot simpler than that: growth has returned to the Eurozone, and unemployment is falling there. And if you are an Eastern European economic migrant and want to go to a country with very low unemployment where jobs are plentiful, then why not go to Germany, where the cost of living is very much lower than in the UK. (And, of course, where wages have risen sharply compared to the UK when you take into account the depreciation of sterling.)
That was exactly the explanation I meant. The fall in the pound is the biggest thing that is making Britain unattractive.
I don't think Lidlington's quick move to distance himself from the Telegraph's summary of his position will alter much. A lot of us have concluded that we will be back in the EU soon. Having a preview of the arguments that will be deployed to bring the Conservatives around to it just makes the actual route back a bit clearer.
Comments
If UKIP could get its act together I could see it taking 5% off the Tory share as the concessions on Brexit become clearer. The mess UKIP is in is extremely helpful to the Tories. Almost suspiciously so.
If Labour was primarily a working class party, there would be no problem. Labour could simply represent its working class voters' views and interests.
But, it isn't.
Labour is riddled with the most unpleasant invasive species known, the middle class. The Public Sector Elite. The Professors. The Pension Lawyers. The Museum Directors. The Tristram Hunts.
They are the Japanese Knotweed of politics. And they care deeply about the EU.
Labour is in just as much as a dilemma as the Tories on Brexit.
Unrelatedly, I disagree with the replacement of Ann Black, who was a very sensible chair of the disputes committee, and have written to her to say so and we've discussed it, though I won't publish private correspondence.
The other things listed rehash old issues selectively to give the impression of a broad-based plot. Reluctantly running through the list: the Haringay rebels are curious mix of left and right and are all about replacement of old council houses with a shiny new development, on which views are very strongly divided. The council leader quoted is free to pledge to support the leadership if he wishes: why shouldn't he? One of the people criticised is quoted as opposing campaigns to target individuals: good. One of the short-listees for the Hastings selection does indeed sound very peculiar and I trust is not selected. A local councillor mentioned sounds like the type of zealot who I mentioned in my own piece - not explicitly anti-semitic but an apologist for Palestinian extremism. I'm not saying all these examples are wonderful people - I don't know any of them. But out of 550K members they don't add up to anything.
The simple counter-example: Momentum-supported candidates have been defeated in most selections up to now and with one exception (Luton) they've accepted their defeats without fuss.
The problem is egg on face for a Government U-turn and the very unhealthy interchange of senior personnel between Heathrow and Department of Transport. It's a racket between government and big business to coin a phrase.
They are likely to be gone very shortly and the sooner the better
I do not see a lot of consensus in individual EU states at losing many thousands of jobs and export chaos and expect lots of anger between each EU state if a sensible settlement is prevented by the EU political elite
Edit. No-one expects the UK not to agree terms.
They care all right -The Dutch, Spain, Italy, Ireland and others have demanded only this week that the UK is given a special trade deal.
I did say that I am not going to engage with the extreme groups on both remain and leave and you are most certainly an extreme remainer so there is no point in me engaging any further with you
Given the venue of the Munich Security Conference I'd expect her to build on her earlier comments about the threat from Russia, as well as their activity in information warfare.
If Sterling fell 20% against the Zloty, that meant that they were sending 20% less home. Now, given said migrants are already here and working, it will probably not encourage them to move to Germany. But if you were a young Polish builder deciding on where to go, German wages have risen 20% relative to UK ones. I believe that's had an impact.
(And, of course, it works in reverse too. The recent rise in Sterling, albeit still to levels well below that of 2015, is making the UK a little more attractive again.)
He was on the right side in opposing the Iraq war, ran a brilliant Spring campaign by accidentally addressing a football crowd at Tranmere, and now is on the right side of the PFI meltdown, as one of very few parliamentarians who called it out from the beginning.
Of course he does have the advantage of having an incompetent opponent too.
Also,dont know the historical accuracy,if any, of the scene on the underground? It looked to us as if it was very false, constructed for the US audience.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=PLN&view=10Y
Up 33% 2011 to 2015, then losing almost all that since.
Perfect demonstration of the modern world really - vast flows of labour changing direction in short periods of time, solely because of numbers on a computer screen.
Headline does not reflect substance:
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/954478233214509056
Net 'right' to leave:
ABC1: -10
C2DE: +15
18-24: -58
64+: +41
London: -12
North: +9
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/srb6u4hbl6/TimesResults_180117_VI_Trackers.pdf