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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the plughole

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  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Mrs May speaking German:

    One sentence, before reverting to patronising in English.
    Speak German to your dog and English to your servant.
    ...and French to your lover, I believe...
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    Exactly. But if you talk about it too much it calls into question why we are going for the hardest leave option. So I suggest we talk about it more.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.
    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I think that Liddington is right, after Brexit the Tories can declare victory, then surreptitiously move closer to Pan-european organisations, pooling sovereignty over continent wide issues. The direction of travel to re-entry will be signposted subtly.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    HYUFD said:

    Unless the Tories capitulate in the Brexit talks completely and agree to keep the UK permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place there is little room for UKIP to progress. Indeed May even adopted their support for more grammar schools albeit that has not been pushed after the general election.

    Sadly the best route for UKIP to have taken was to elect Anne Marie Waters rather than Henry Bolton at their last leadership election and go full Le Pen, Wilders or Freedom Party or AfD on a hardline anti radical Islam ticket which may have got them some traction in white working class areas especially in the North and Midlands. They may have been the new nasty party but they would not be the new joke party, indeed their predicament is so bad that Henry Bolton's love life appeared as a comic item on the Graham Norton show last night.

    The follow ups to this tweet of the week are really quite clever, beyond even the TSE level:

    https://twitter.com/Moosedog23/status/954055326638198784
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.
    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I think that Liddington is right, after Brexit the Tories can declare victory, then surreptitiously move closer to Pan-european organisations, pooling sovereignty over continent wide issues. The direction of travel to re-entry will be signposted subtly.
    That's definitely my reading. Expect lots of wordy articles about our relationship with the EU which it is impossible to work out what the author means. We'll be creating a fudge mountain.
  • Options

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    She still is and while I do not always agree with her she adds enormously to this site
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless the Tories capitulate in the Brexit talks completely and agree to keep the UK permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place there is little room for UKIP to progress. Indeed May even adopted their support for more grammar schools albeit that has not been pushed after the general election.

    Sadly the best route for UKIP to have taken was to elect Anne Marie Waters rather than Henry Bolton at their last leadership election and go full Le Pen, Wilders or Freedom Party or AfD on a hardline anti radical Islam ticket which may have got them some traction in white working class areas especially in the North and Midlands. They may have been the new nasty party but they would not be the new joke party, indeed their predicament is so bad that Henry Bolton's love life appeared as a comic item on the Graham Norton show last night.

    The follow ups to this tweet of the week are really quite clever, beyond even the TSE level:

    https://twitter.com/Moosedog23/status/954055326638198784
    Yes, says it all
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @haveigotnews: After Boris Johnson suggests bridge across Channel, there are concerns that his next crazy idea to encourage cooperation with France could be to establish a single market allowing the free movement of goods, services and people.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited January 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    It isn't actually, the last poll we did on the site after the 2015 general election had Tory and Labour PBers almost exactly as numerous as Tory and Labour voters nationally but PB had more LDs and fewer UKIP voters than nationally.
    That is not surprising as most PBers are middle class
  • Options
    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I can't see the EU ever shaking off its ultimate federal goal, and the UK leaving will allow them to put their foot down.

    As you say it's democracy and if people voted to rejoin, we should do so, but I think it's more likely other countries will follow us out.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Scott_P said:

    @haveigotnews: After Boris Johnson suggests bridge across Channel, there are concerns that his next crazy idea to encourage cooperation with France could be to establish a single market allowing the free movement of goods, services and people.

    :lol: Thereby emulating one of his heroines, one M Thatcher.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.


    Now isn't that interesting? ;)
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Gin, if you believe it. As I mentioned earlier, it smells like Chirac's promise of CAP reform, to me.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    It isn't actually, the last poll we did on the site after the 2015 general election had Tory and Labour PBers almost exactly as numerous as Tory and Labour voters nationally but PB had more LDs and fewer UKIP voters than nationally.
    That is not surprising as most PBers are middle class
    Thanks HYUFD, to be fair you always IMO try to give a fair assessment of both main parties future prospects going forward.Which currently is difficult.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.
    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    snip

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I think that Liddington is right, after Brexit the Tories can declare victory, then surreptitiously move closer to Pan-european organisations, pooling sovereignty over continent wide issues. The direction of travel to re-entry will be signposted subtly.
    That's definitely my reading. Expect lots of wordy articles about our relationship with the EU which it is impossible to work out what the author means. We'll be creating a fudge mountain.
    and also fail to deal with any of the economic issues that led many people to express their rage and vote 'Leave'.

    That anger aint gonna go away if nothing is done.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.


    Now isn't that interesting? ;)
    Full interview on Marr tommorow I think, but Macron is a great example of French suave diplomacy.

    It is Theresa's red lines that are setting the parameters of the Deal. We are perfectly capable of softening the Deal, if we so choose. Barnier has always made that clear.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Mr. Gin, if you believe it. As I mentioned earlier, it smells like Chirac's promise of CAP reform, to me.

    The stakes are rather higher (for both sides) now though...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    It isn't actually, the last poll we did on the site after the 2015 general election had Tory and Labour PBers almost exactly as numerous as Tory and Labour voters nationally but PB had more LDs and fewer UKIP voters than nationally.
    That is not surprising as most PBers are middle class
    Thanks HYUFD, to be fair you always IMO try to give a fair assessment of both main parties future prospects going forward.Which currently is difficult.
    Thankyou Yorkcity
  • Options
    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I can't see the EU ever shaking off its ultimate federal goal, and the UK leaving will allow them to put their foot down.

    As you say it's democracy and if people voted to rejoin, we should do so, but I think it's more likely other countries will follow us out.
    I tend to agree with the idea we will grow closer to the EU over time and consider re--joining which of course is a comfort blanket to remainers, but we are going to leave and the process of re-joining will take a decade or more, if at all
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Macron has said we cannot get full single market access given we want to end free movement, ECJ jurisdiction and reduce our payments to the EU. However, yes interestingly he has said we may be able to get a bespoke deal between full single market membership and a Canada style FTA which would largely be focused on goods only
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited January 2018

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    The EU elite might have decided that any other Tory leader except Hammond would be worse. It presumably appreciates too that Corbyn/McDonnell are delighted for the Tory 'hard right' to drive the course of events and continue the Labour left's unfinished business from 1975-1983, i.e. leave the 'capitalist club'.
  • Options
    calum said:

    Alistair said:

    The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

    Cheapest publicity ever.

    I would like to think that the good people of Edinburgh Western might now have sufficient cause to regret their decision, but I fear not.
    It's now had over 200k views in the last 36 hours - I think it shows that with newspaper sales continuing to fall off dramatically that social media will become an ever increasingly important election battleground.
    Aye, nowadays newspapers often seems the fluffer for the major event on alternative medias, a role which the Scotsman is fulfilling admirably in this case.
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Alistair said:

    Just seen the text of the tax question asked by YouGov about the SNP plans:

    It was "Last month the Scottish government announced changes to income tax. The effect of the change will be that compared to people in England and Wales taxpayers earning less than £26,000 will pay less tax, and those earning more than £26,000 will pay more tax. From what you have seen or heard, do you support or oppose these changes to income tax in Scotland?"

    Even with that phrasing only 27% of people were opposed.

    Compared to 99% of the right wing fruitcakes on here
  • Options

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,134
    It is instructive to compare the influence that a third party has on policy in the UK under FPTP with Germany under modified PR.

    UKIP’s share of the vote in 2010 was just 3.1% and it took no seats. Nevertheless it forced David Cameron’s hand to promise a referendum in the Conservative manifesto for the 2015 general election in which UKIP took 12.6% of the vote but just the Carswell seat in Parliament. Since then we have had the seismic Brexit referendum.

    Compare that with the AfD in Germany, which achieved 4.7% in 2013 but, falling short of the 5% threshold, got no seats in the Bundestag. Then in 2017 the AfD coincidentally also got 12.6% of the vote, yielding 94 seats in the Bundestag. So much greater representation than UKIP in the UK for the same share of the vote.

    However, though the horse-trading between the CDU and the SPD is not yet resolved, it is clear that the AfD’s policy agenda is nowhere near what will emerge if there is a grand coalition, and still less so if the “Jamaica” outcome with the CDU, Greens and the FDP is resurrected.

    Whereas UKIP has essentially achieved its goal under FPTP in the UK, in Germany under PR the AfD has been contained as a side show.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Alistair said:

    The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

    Cheapest publicity ever.

    I thought it would be impossible to find a bigger numpty than Labour's Kelly after his performance this week but up pops the Lib Dumb Cole-Hamilton to prove me wrong
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. W, I posted the other day that I saw a graph (forgot to note the link, alas) on Twitter indicating every party in Germany, excepting the AfD, were to the left of median popular opinion. If accurate, that's quite significant.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    well heeled extreme right wing Tory party members at that.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    Exactly so.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. G, if you only knew the POWER of a well-grilled baby in a bun, with just a dash of ketchup!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I can't see the EU ever shaking off its ultimate federal goal, and the UK leaving will allow them to put their foot down.

    As you say it's democracy and if people voted to rejoin, we should do so, but I think it's more likely other countries will follow us out.
    I'm a terrible forecaster, but I think we'll actually see a two-speed Europe at some point. There are a number of countries playing silly sods with the ERM component of the convergence criteria.

    That can't go on forever; as the Eurozone countries stand up more of the necessary elements of a currency union, it'll either pull countries in, or cause some kind of recognition that full monetary union (with all that entails) isn't what the various electorates want.

    Where I do disagree is that our cooperation will somehow be underhand; we've seen how that works, so let's not repeat the mistakes. I would be delighted if we were members of Euratom and Erasmus+ and so on. As long as we're outside the treaty frameworks (Rome, Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon et al), even a European Defence Force would be palatable.
  • Options
    Big bad Ben has other (deleted) opinions.

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/954382497663586305
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    Mr. Gin, if you believe it. As I mentioned earlier, it smells like Chirac's promise of CAP reform, to me.

    Anyone that believes it is barking MD.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    As I have pointed out before, the lost majority in June has allowed May to tell Europe "if you don't play ball with me, there's my replacement Boris, hovering in the wings...." That seems to concentrate their minds!
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    It will end in tears for sure, but she will be well looked after.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    I have said right from the beginning that the Tories will sell out , get a pig in the poke , slapon the lipstick and we will pay more money for a crap deal and lose any influence we ever had but have to pick up any bills they throw our way.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    well heeled extreme right wing Tory party members at that.
    Morning Malc - I am definitely not one of those, just an ordinary pensioner, but am a conservative party member
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    Just seen the text of the tax question asked by YouGov about the SNP plans:

    It was "Last month the Scottish government announced changes to income tax. The effect of the change will be that compared to people in England and Wales taxpayers earning less than £26,000 will pay less tax, and those earning more than £26,000 will pay more tax. From what you have seen or heard, do you support or oppose these changes to income tax in Scotland?"

    Even with that phrasing only 27% of people were opposed.

    Compared to 99% of the right wing fruitcakes on here
    Presumably given those figures a substantial proportion of those earning over 26k are in favour of the changes.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    Difficult to achieve a half way house between Canada and Norway, I think. They are different beasts and there is no continuum between the two. Norway isn't Canada with more of everything. Preferential Trade Agreements are inflexible so I wouldn't put a lot of hope in a Canada Plus. Maybe more potential with a Norway Minus, but if you have signed up to someone else's system with all that entails, why would you want a "minus"?

    David Lidington doesn't understand what a customs union is, when he talks about a "sort of customs union". He's not alone, but as a man in charge and a Remainer who should be more interested in this stuff, it's maybe concerning. A customs union is a common tariff on all goods and is recognised as such by the WTO. There's not a lot to discuss. You just agree and implement it. The Turkish-EU CU excludes agriculture and is non-compliant by WTO rules (originally GATT the CU dates back to the 60's). If we have a CU with the EU it will include agriculture. A customs union is only concerned with tariffs. Regulatory alignment strictly is outside the scope. Pretty much the only reason for the UK NOT to be in a customs union with the EU is to be able to apply a lower tariff on citrus fruits, as we don't have a citrus industry to protect.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    For sure , we will be done over royally.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,134

    Mr. W, I posted the other day that I saw a graph (forgot to note the link, alas) on Twitter indicating every party in Germany, excepting the AfD, were to the left of median popular opinion. If accurate, that's quite significant.

    That could also be true here. I would guess that Labour, LibDems, SNP, Plaid and SF are to the left of median popular opinion, and possibly the Conservatives too. Just UKIP and the DUP to the right I would say.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.
    Too many people on here underestimate the importance of that. How often do those of us pavement-pounders out door-knocking hear "You're all the same, you lot. Just in it for yourselves. Never listen to us folk...."

    Well, now we've listened.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    rkrkrk said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    Just seen the text of the tax question asked by YouGov about the SNP plans:

    It was "Last month the Scottish government announced changes to income tax. The effect of the change will be that compared to people in England and Wales taxpayers earning less than £26,000 will pay less tax, and those earning more than £26,000 will pay more tax. From what you have seen or heard, do you support or oppose these changes to income tax in Scotland?"

    Even with that phrasing only 27% of people were opposed.

    Compared to 99% of the right wing fruitcakes on here
    Presumably given those figures a substantial proportion of those earning over 26k are in favour of the changes.
    I would tend to say they accept it for better public services. I don't like it but do realise I am very lucky to be paying the extra so just have to suck it up, it is not impacting my life for sure. I used to have to pay more for regular prescriptions.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    geoffw said:

    Mr. W, I posted the other day that I saw a graph (forgot to note the link, alas) on Twitter indicating every party in Germany, excepting the AfD, were to the left of median popular opinion. If accurate, that's quite significant.

    That could also be true here. I would guess that Labour, LibDems, SNP, Plaid and SF are to the left of median popular opinion, and possibly the Conservatives too. Just UKIP and the DUP to the right I would say.
    Not on economics, on immigration and law and order maybe
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.

    The EU is 27 individual countries.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    well heeled extreme right wing Tory party members at that.
    Morning Malc - I am definitely not one of those, just an ordinary pensioner, but am a conservative party member
    Morning Big G , I had not included you in there, but there are many others who fit the brief.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.
    Too many people on here underestimate the importance of that. How often do those of us pavement-pounders out door-knocking hear "You're all the same, you lot. Just in it for yourselves. Never listen to us folk...."

    Well, now we've listened.

    And nothing much will change.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Mortimer said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.

    The EU is 27 individual countries.

    That news might shock some in Brussels!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.
    Too many people on here underestimate the importance of that. How often do those of us pavement-pounders out door-knocking hear "You're all the same, you lot. Just in it for yourselves. Never listen to us folk...."

    Well, now we've listened.
    Yes, these are the same people who turned out for Corbyn, undeniably not an average bland politician.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Ms Cyclefree is currently obsessed by the evil Corbyn Labour Party.


    She used to be such a good poster.
    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.
    well heeled extreme right wing Tory party members at that.
    Morning Malc - I am definitely not one of those, just an ordinary pensioner, but am a conservative party member
    Morning Big G , I had not included you in there, but there are many others who fit the brief.
    Thanks Malc. Looking forward to two trips to our family in the North East this year.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.

    The EU is 27 individual countries.

    That news might shock some in Brussels!

    It might. But it’s what makes the EU’s negotiating position so strong. No country, not even Ireland, is as harmed as much as the UK by a no deal Brexit.

  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,134

    Mortimer said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.

    The EU is 27 individual countries.

    28
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

    May realised that it would take more than Brexit to deal with public concerns, hence her speech on assuming office. Sadly she appears devoid of both the ideas and the influence to make any progress.
  • Options

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Macron cares far more about establishing himself as the new leader of Europe than he does about conforming to a united Franco-German front over Brexit under the umbrella of Merkel's rhetoric of "no cherry picking". He also doesn't have the baggage that she does over Cameron's failed renegotiation too.

    For decades, France has played second fiddle to Germany within the EU's main power axis. Now, he wants to reverse it, and if leading the forging of a new deal with the UK helps him do so, he will, and take credit for it.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

    May realised that it would take more than Brexit to deal with public concerns, hence her speech on assuming office. Sadly she appears devoid of both the ideas and the influence to make any progress.
    On Brexit she is making progress and that dominates everything at present
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    I always thought there is an element of stockholm syndrome on this site Especially for regular posters..As it is so dominated by conservative party members.

    :tumbleweed:
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Have you actually read Liddington's remarks?

    They are measured, balanced, nuanced, and absolutely fair comment.

    He accepts the existing EU and our full membership wasn't working for the UK. He says the decision has been made and can't be unmade. But he also says it's dangerous to say never say never in politics, and, if the EU, or other European institutions, were to radically change in the next 20 years, more in the UK's image, then who knows how the relationships might evolve?

    The Telegraph has done what so many newspapers are now prone to do, in order to boost sales: simplify and then exaggerate to generate a controversial headline.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
    Increasing numbers of rough sleepers in Leicester too. Snowing today as well.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
    It's happening in so many cities worldwide as the cost of renting let alone buying housing is extortionate - and the availability of social housing and support for single people is very limited. You would be hard pressed to get a decent house in Vancouver for less than a million Canadian $ But those in charge have done very well out of the property asset boom - so neither they, banks and central bankers and developers are going to do much about it.

    Mrs May seems to have forgotten her comments about cheap credit, money printing, excessive lending and the generational divide it has caused in terms of housing. But until young people are able to put a secure roof over their heads in their 20s and 30s the promise of inheriting a third of a house from their parents when they are in their mid 60s - assuming it doesn't go first on social care - they probably won't be overly happy about their lot.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
    Increasing numbers of rough sleepers in Leicester too. Snowing today as well.
    Curiously there seem to be more in Lichfield than in Cannock. I have no idea why. You would expect it to be the other way around given Cannock must be four times the size of Lichfield.

    There seem to be fewer in Gloucester these days but I wonder if that's because of the efforts of one of the local free churches to sort out hostels, food, support etc rather than an economic improvement.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Incidentally totally off-topic but this is a very interesting article on electric cars:

    https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/emissions/are-electric-cars-actually-worse-for-the-environment/

    Given the issues it raises for all parties it's well worth a read.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    John_M said:

    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining .
    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    Charles said:



    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
    I can't see the EU ever shaking off its ultimate federal goal, and the UK leaving will allow them to put their foot down.

    As you say it's democracy and if people voted to rejoin, we should do so, but I think it's more likely other countries will follow us out.
    I'm a terrible forecaster, but I think we'll actually see a two-speed Europe at some point. There are a number of countries playing silly sods with the ERM component of the convergence criteria.

    That can't go on forever; as the Eurozone countries stand up more of the necessary elements of a currency union, it'll either pull countries in, or cause some kind of recognition that full monetary union (with all that entails) isn't what the various electorates want.

    Where I do disagree is that our cooperation will somehow be underhand; we've seen how that works, so let's not repeat the mistakes. I would be delighted if we were members of Euratom and Erasmus+ and so on. As long as we're outside the treaty frameworks (Rome, Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon et al), even a European Defence Force would be palatable.
    My reading is the UK is happy to engage in bilateral, or even multilateral, cooperation in Europe, so long as it's answerable for that to the UK Parliament.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    brendan16 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I .
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
    It's happening in so many cities worldwide as the cost of renting let alone buying housing is extortionate - and the availability of social housing and support for single people is very limited. You would be hard pressed to get a decent house in Vancouver for less than a million Canadian $ But those in charge have done very well out of the property asset boom - so neither they, banks and central bankers and developers are going to do much about it.

    Mrs May seems to have forgotten her comments about cheap credit, money printing, excessive lending and the generational divide it has caused in terms of housing. But until young people are able to put a secure roof over their heads in their 20s and 30s the promise of inheriting a third of a house from their parents when they are in their mid 60s - assuming it doesn't go first on social care - they probably won't be overly happy about their lot.
    The gap between rough sleeping and renting is huge, but I think a lot of the issue stems from lack of stable employment, and mental health issues including addictions. A fair number of our rough sleepers seem to be ex prisoners and ex military. Both get very poorly supported afterwards.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    geoffw said:

    It is instructive to compare the influence that a third party has on policy in the UK under FPTP with Germany under modified PR.

    UKIP’s share of the vote in 2010 was just 3.1% and it took no seats. Nevertheless it forced David Cameron’s hand to promise a referendum in the Conservative manifesto for the 2015 general election in which UKIP took 12.6% of the vote but just the Carswell seat in Parliament. Since then we have had the seismic Brexit referendum.

    Compare that with the AfD in Germany, which achieved 4.7% in 2013 but, falling short of the 5% threshold, got no seats in the Bundestag. Then in 2017 the AfD coincidentally also got 12.6% of the vote, yielding 94 seats in the Bundestag. So much greater representation than UKIP in the UK for the same share of the vote.

    However, though the horse-trading between the CDU and the SPD is not yet resolved, it is clear that the AfD’s policy agenda is nowhere near what will emerge if there is a grand coalition, and still less so if the “Jamaica” outcome with the CDU, Greens and the FDP is resurrected.

    Whereas UKIP has essentially achieved its goal under FPTP in the UK, in Germany under PR the AfD has been contained as a side show.

    Ukip achieved its goal despite FPTP, not because of it. David Cameron made the wrong call at every stage: the promise, the negotiations, the referendum before defining the alternatives, the project fear campaign complete with world war three, even resigning before stabilising the party. But his biggest mistake, ironically, was gerrymandering: knocking Labour and EU-leaning voters off the register. It won him a majority in 2015 and destroyed him a year later.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

    I remember this guy from Barnsley on Question time the day after the 'meaningful vote' vote.

    Are the people of Barnsley and many other towns which backed leave going to get what they think they voted for from Mrs May or Labour? UKIP may be on the way out - but the issues and concerns which drove its rise in support from 2012 to 2015 are still there.

    We are I agree leaving the EU - but are we just going to become a vassal state of the EU bound by its rules and paying for the privilege but having no say over those rules?

    https://youtu.be/YhybVnqxI1Q


  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Absolute nonsense.
  • Options

    Macron cares far more about establishing himself as the new leader of Europe than he does about conforming to a united Franco-German front over Brexit under the umbrella of Merkel's rhetoric of "no cherry picking". He also doesn't have the baggage that she does over Cameron's failed renegotiation too.

    For decades, France has played second fiddle to Germany within the EU's main power axis. Now, he wants to reverse it, and if leading the forging of a new deal with the UK helps him do so, he will, and take credit for it.

    That's a good point. Certainly Macron is ambitious and self-confident in a way that Hollande never was. With the sun fading on Merkel now there is a void to be filled there too.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

    May realised that it would take more than Brexit to deal with public concerns, hence her speech on assuming office. Sadly she appears devoid of both the ideas and the influence to make any progress.
    On Brexit she is making progress and that dominates everything at present
    I have yet to see any progress G, apart from giving away 50 Billion. What progress do you think they have made.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Mortimer said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Big G , you sound like you are taken in as easily as Theresa. Remember her great meeting with Trump , and all her other successes. Correct they are making a cod of her and she has no clue. France will give her nothing for nothing , just look at us stumping up to fund the illegal immigrants in Calais, WTF is that all about.

    We’ll get what the EU decides we can have. Same with any other trade agreement with a major market: the terms will be dictated from the other side of the table.

    Given we're the bigger market in goods for the EU, there might well be more than you think.

    The EU is 27 individual countries.

    That news might shock some in Brussels!

    It might. But it’s what makes the EU’s negotiating position so strong. No country, not even Ireland, is as harmed as much as the UK by a no deal Brexit.

    Wrong again.

    Wrong on this subject day in, day out.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    brendan16 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Interesting breaking news

    Macron has said that the UK could get a bespoke trade deal with the EU.

    May be many underestimate TM in these negotiations. She had a very successful meeting with Macron with agreement on Calais and bi-lateral joint defence co-operation and assisting France in it's actions against ISIS in Africa. Even the idea of a fixed channel crossing was supported by Macron.

    She meets Trump next week in Davos and then is to deliver a speech on joint European defence in Munich.

    She seems to be liked by the EU elite so things are moving in a positive way.

    I expect her to do a deal that is acceptable to the majority and then in mid to late 2019 stand down in favour of a new leader

    Yep - we’re heading for a symbolic Brexit. Nods to the May red lines to spare her blushes, but pretty much as things are in reality. All we’ll have done is waste a lot of time and money, shaved a few points off GDP and diminished our soft power. Most will be fine with that. But those who aren’t will feel betrayed and will not be quiet about it.

    There you go again.

    We've listened to the people about our place in Europe for the first time since the early 90s. That is significant.

    For sure. We’re leaving. Not much will change, but we’ll no longer be an EU member state.

    I remember this guy from Barnsley on Question time the day after the 'meaningful vote' vote.

    Are the people of Barnsley and many other towns which backed leave going to get what they think they voted for from Mrs May or Labour? UKIP may be on the way out - but the issues and concerns which drove its rise in support from 2012 to 2015 are still there.

    We are I agree leaving the EU - but are we just going to become a vassal state of the EU bound by its rules and paying for the privilege but having no say over those rules?

    https://youtu.be/YhybVnqxI1Q


    I wonder if his middle aged children and young adult grandchildren agree with him? Obviously we all only have one family and it may not be representative, but the white hairs in mine might find what he says impressive. The working age ones don't. I have a feeling there are nowhere near as many people like this gentleman than some suppose.
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    geoffw said:

    It is instructive to compare the influence that a third party has on policy in the UK under FPTP with Germany under modified PR.

    UKIP’s share of the vote in 2010 was just 3.1% and it took no seats. Nevertheless it forced David Cameron’s hand to promise a referendum in the Conservative manifesto for the 2015 general election in which UKIP took 12.6% of the vote but just the Carswell seat in Parliament. Since then we have had the seismic Brexit referendum.

    Compare that with the AfD in Germany, which achieved 4.7% in 2013 but, falling short of the 5% threshold, got no seats in the Bundestag. Then in 2017 the AfD coincidentally also got 12.6% of the vote, yielding 94 seats in the Bundestag. So much greater representation than UKIP in the UK for the same share of the vote.

    However, though the horse-trading between the CDU and the SPD is not yet resolved, it is clear that the AfD’s policy agenda is nowhere near what will emerge if there is a grand coalition, and still less so if the “Jamaica” outcome with the CDU, Greens and the FDP is resurrected.

    Whereas UKIP has essentially achieved its goal under FPTP in the UK, in Germany under PR the AfD has been contained as a side show.

    You're making the mistake of assuming only UKIP wanted a referendum, that only UKIP forced Cameron's hand and that only UKIP wanted Brexit to win the referendum.

    Except the Leave campaign was headed by Conservatives.

    When Cameron conceded the referendum it wasn't just due to UKIP rising up in the polls but because nearly a hundred of his own MPs had rebelled against him and demanded one. Then during the referendum a significant amount including many Cabinet ministers campaigned to Leave.

    This was not just UKIP's doing. Yours is not a reasonable comparison unless you pick an issue where upto a hundred CDU MPs had rebelled against Merkel on that issue.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Don't you just love the caring Tories:
    The Tory MP Who Backed Vasectomies For The Jobless Wanted Police To Play "Splat The Chav" With Water Cannon

    Conservative MP Ben Bradley said he was looking forward to watching police play "splat the chav" with water cannon after the London riots.

    Bradley celebrated a decision by David Cameron to allow police to deploy water cannon to bring rioters under control.

    "The water cannons are coming," Bradley told his followers, under a picture of a water cannon spraying protesters in Ireland.

    "I'll be in front of the news tonight watching police play 'Splat the Chav,'" he continued.
  • Options
    *yawn* malcolmg.

    Getting sprayed by water is the least the rioters deserved. Should have happened on night 2 (I can understand not being ready for it on night 1).
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:



    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.


    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.

    Have you actually read Liddington's remarks?

    They are measured, balanced, nuanced, and absolutely fair comment.

    He accepts the existing EU and our full membership wasn't working for the UK. He says the decision has been made and can't be unmade. But he also says it's dangerous to say never say never in politics, and, if the EU, or other European institutions, were to radically change in the next 20 years, more in the UK's image, then who knows how the relationships might evolve?

    The Telegraph has done what so many newspapers are now prone to do, in order to boost sales: simplify and then exaggerate to generate a controversial headline.

    So a cabinet minister talks to a major newspaper on a contentious subject, and we are supposed to take what he says literally? Even if the rebuttal didn't come out suspiciously quickly we'd be entitled to read between the lines.

    But if you prefer to think he's honest but naive be my guest.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:
    Even I agree with the sentiments but Brexit is the dominant issue and TM will be consumed with ot all year
    Agreed , to be honest T May has a difficult job with Brexit and I really hope it works out well.
    I think that is the mood in the Country but there are those who would like our Country to crash and burn to prove their obsession with the EU and that is sad
    BigG we are in agreement For all its faults , I have been privileged to live in this country and this lovely city.
    York is a wonderful city with it's Minster and jewel in the crown, the National Railway Museum.

    We love having breaks in York and off course Yorkshire.

    We live in a wonderful Country that we can all be proud off, warts and all
    I love York too.The Ebor meeting was an old regular for me and for anyone with a bit of Yorkshire in their blood, and it was where I first took LSD in 1972 or rather where I ended up-long story!.So many homeless people now out sleeping on the streets in York last time I went,and in every other town and city.This disturbs me a great deal.
    When I was in Vancouver last year they have a real crisis in homeless people. It is not just the UK that is experiencing this serious problem
    Increasing numbers of rough sleepers in Leicester too. Snowing today as well.
    First time I have seen rough-sleepers in the doorshops on the main front in Torquay - during the day.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315


    Isn't there a lot of wishful thinking about Liddington's remarks ?

    Of course we could rejoin the EU or a variant of the EU - whatever form that takes - in the future. That is a self evident fact.

    We could do lots of other things as well if we wish. We don't even know what sort of world we will be living in in 20 years given the growth of automation and technology let alone the political and demographic changes we may well see in that time. The EU in 2038 won't be the EU it is now - it may not even exist.

    As for the customs union issue - isn't that sort of our expect transitional state anyway to deal with the Irish border issue. In a customs union with the EU but not in the EU customs union. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU - it's not in the EU either.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    brendan16 said:



    Isn't there a lot of wishful thinking about Liddington's remarks ?

    Of course we could rejoin the EU or a variant of the EU - whatever form that takes - in the future. That is a self evident fact.

    We could do lots of other things as well if we wish. We don't even know what sort of world we will be living in in 20 years given the growth of automation and technology let alone the political and demographic changes we may well see in that time. The EU in 2038 won't be the EU it is now - it may not even exist.

    As for the customs union issue - isn't that sort of our expect transitional state anyway to deal with the Irish border issue. In a customs union with the EU but not in the EU customs union. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU - it's not in the EU either.

    Everything you say is correct, it is just that by bringing up the subject from his position in the cabinet it makes you wonder how committed he is to following through on a project that might be reversed. If you are selling tickets to boat trip round the lighthouse you don't talk about how you might turn round and come back half way if you want to make the sale.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    There is trouble brewing on the campuses. Could be national strike over pensions:

    https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/14451
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    There is trouble brewing on the campuses. Could be national strike over pensions:

    https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/14451


    Aren't most private pensions already 'defined contribution' these days?

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    There is trouble brewing on the campuses. Could be national strike over pensions:

    https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/14451


    Aren't most private pensions already 'defined contribution' these days?

    Yep, I think so. UK Universities are attempting same thing.
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    First time I have seen rough-sleepers in the doorshops on the main front in Torquay - during the day.

    Hope it is not our old mucker Coldstone. Please check and denote a spare room (c.f. lefty-posters; SJW).

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    There is trouble brewing on the campuses. Could be national strike over pensions:

    https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/14451

    It is worth remembering at this moment that the raison d'etre of the UCU when it was formed 15 years ago was to safeguard the pension rights of its members, along with safeguarding jobs and stopping the steep rise in VCs' pay. These were things which the AUT and NAFTHE solemnly assured us would be guaranteed with a joint union speaking with one voice.

    It is also worth remembering that this is what the NUT and ATL have assured us in creating the new super-union the NEU, although there we have the added interesting incentive of no votes for union officers for five years.

    The key difference I can see between the unions of today and the banks under Brown is that some people at least got something out of the banks.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    First time I have seen rough-sleepers in the doorshops on the main front in Torquay - during the day.

    Hope it is not our old mucker Coldstone. Please check and denote a spare room (c.f. lefty-posters; SJW).

    As far as I can recall, Coldstone used to carry a sack of coal on his back. None fit that bill.....
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