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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 28 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

Three years ago, the Lib Dems were still in government. Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg comprised half of the quad, the inner circle that fixed the government’s direction. It feels like a lifetime ago now. The Lib Dems were reduced to 8 MPs in 2015 and recovered only to 12 MPs last year (with a slight decline in vote share nationally), despite being the only party to advocate remaining in the EU. Replacing Tim Farron with Vince Cable has not given them any more airtime or sense of relevance.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,309
    edited January 28
    First like the Fed.
  • The 'Lib Dems' you say?

    Nope. Doesn't ring any bells
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364
    A depressingly hard road ahead for the LDs. Such big swings for so little game.

    Round my way they put in no effort, where usually they put in loads, and as a result are still not even recovered to the string second place they usually have. On the other hand, they succeeded in winning back a target seat where all their effort went.

    So while as the table shows they don't have high votes in enough places, defendibg what they have then building on the targets seems the best approach when no massive swell of support can be expected. It risks labour supplanting them as the not tory vote in some places, but they need seats. They lost a few they'd hoped to have held last time, but it worked in Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468
    edited January 28
    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,468
    On present polls only Richmond Park and St Ives and maybe Cheltenham are likely LD gains next time, all from the Tories though Hallam may give an opportunity to take a Labour seat due to O'Mara
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,447
    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. I think there are a couple of legitimate perspectives on the 'space' available to the Lib Dems. With Labour being loony left, there is obvious room in a more centrist direction.

    However, the yellows have a big problem. Those who are tribally loyal Labour aren't moving, and the reds also benefit from strong far left support. Those opposed to that have a single credible option to stop Chairman Corbyn from getting in: the Conservatives.

    So who votes Lib Dem? Corbyn is an anchor for both main parties. His cult will always vote for him and so will Labour (rather than Corbyn) supporters because, unlike in Scotland, English/Welsh brand loyalty remains very strong. Those who oppose his madness, whilst despairing of Conservative rudderlessness, will vote blue.

    The yellows *might* benefit from tactical voting, but those ultra-keen on Corbyn may still dislike the 'treachery' of the Lib Dems being in coalition.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular
    Clearly he thinks it will be among his base, and he seems to know them well, Brexit excluded.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular
    Clearly he thinks it will be among his base, and he seems to know them well, Brexit excluded.
    His base will not put him in no 10
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Appropriation of property, really?

    Glad to see his more bonkers ideas getting an airing, hopefully he can talk about exchange controls next.
  • Corbyn rules out second referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    Not sure buying homes and giving them to the homeless will be popular
    Clearly he thinks it will be among his base, and he seems to know them well, Brexit excluded.
    His base will not put him in no 10
    If the tories dip even slightly, and the loyalists in his party who dislike him are not offput too much, it will be enough. Perhaps on coalitipn, but enough. People won't love the tories next time, so will they fear Corbyn enough? Maybe, but maybe not.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,447
    Mr. Sandpit, fairness means confiscation of private property by the state. Surely you're not the sort of capitalist pigdog who thinks you have the right to possess your own property and do with it as you please? Surely you recognise that your property is only acceptable with the permission of the state? Why are you being so ungrateful?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    That Torbay is 40th on that list - yet requires them to overturn a majority of 14,300 - shows the Himalayan range the LibDems have to traverse to get them back to anything like a force in Westminster.
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Well if homeless are going to be given property how many more homeless are going to go for it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    That Torbay is 40th on that list - yet requires them to overturn a majority of 14,300 - shows the Himalayan range the LibDems have to traverse to get them back to anything like a force in Westminster.

    And that even in their top 10 they've got a couple of very tight marginals to defend.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.
    The "plenty" that would still have voted for Labour in 1983 under Foot.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,508

    Mr. Sandpit, fairness means confiscation of private property by the state. Surely you're not the sort of capitalist pigdog who thinks you have the right to possess your own property and do with it as you please? Surely you recognise that your property is only acceptable with the permission of the state? Why are you being so ungrateful?

    The state confiscates your private property all the time in the form of income tax.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Who is he going to buy them from, who is currently occupying them, and where will those people go once their properties are purchased?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,447
    Mr. Ace, I have some books I haven't read in a long time. Do you think the state has the right to seize them for a public library?

    As for tax: paying tax to fund public services is not the same thing as confiscating possessions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    edited January 28
    Great catch from Tom Curran! Stoinis gone for 87. 189/5, this might not be all over...
    England 4.7 to take the wickets.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,309
    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Who is he going to buy them from, who is currently occupying them, and where will those people go once their properties are purchased?

    He was talking about vacant properties. Increasing taxes on second homes might be a good idea. Confiscating them and then giving them to random people is utterly bizarre.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    edited January 28
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Appropriation of property, really?

    Glad to see his more bonkers ideas getting an airing, hopefully he can talk about exchange controls next.
    Purchasing property is not appropriation, assuming the purchase is at market value.

    The real issue with this policy is not the help for the homeless, which is a good thing. Rather, it does nothing for those struggling to become homeowners.

    Allowing local authorities to take over vacant properties is possibly much more problematic. What does “take over” mean? Appropriation? Purchase? Out of what budget?

    What does “vacant” mean? A home where the owner has died and it is empty while probate is being obtained? A house which is let and is between lettings? A house which is in the process of being renovated? A house where the owner is working temporarily abroad or in another part of the country during the week only? How long must a house be a vacant for before it is taken over?

    Will the homeless be expected to pay rent and, if so, at what rate? What sort of tenure will they be given? What rights will the homeowner have as landlord?

    Etc etc.

    As with pretty much all of Corbyn’s ideas, the devil will be in the detail. And we rarely get any detail from Corbyn.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Who is he going to buy them from, who is currently occupying them, and where will those people go once their properties are purchased?

    Not going to be a popular policy with squatters!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
    Immigration is a tough problem and I don't know what the answer is. I'd prefer if it isn't make the UK such an unpleasant place that nobody would want to come in the first place.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910

    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.

    Compulsory purchase is not a quick process either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364
    edited January 28


    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM


    It's the sort of comment plenty will like though.

    The "plenty" that would still have voted for Labour in 1983 under Foot.
    Give your occasional tendency to see Corbynite fanboys when a mild criticism/comment is offered, even from those who openly backed the Tories for the first time in 2017 because of Corbyn, I don't know that your judgement on that score can be entirely reliable.

    This doesn't sound a great idea to me - if nothing else CPOs are not quick, as others have noted, so it would hardly be as easy as Corbyn thinks - but would it piss off enough people who would not already still have voted 'not labour' anyway? If it wouldn't, then it keeping the base happy would still have a net positive effect for Corbyn.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,436

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Well if homeless are going to be given property how many more homeless are going to go for it
    Folk with homes will probably start making themselves homeless just so the state can give them homes. That's how it works, right?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    Cyclefree said:

    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.

    Compulsory purchase is not a quick process either.
    Oh I don't think it's a good idea. But it's not the end state of Stalinism either.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    edited January 28
    192/6 now, this is amazingly still a contest.
    Edit: 192/7 :D

    England now odds on to take the wickets.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,649
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

    What the hell is that about?

    The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

    I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.

    The Customs Union is misunderstood. It is purely about whether to agree a common set of tariffs. Product regulation is strictly speaking a different issue. The question is whether we would actually diverge from the EU on our tariff schedule. We want to protect our farmers apparently and we also want to replicate existing EU third party agreements, so not really. Maybe lower tariffs on oranges as we don't have a citrus industry to protect. Frankly apart from possibly the US, the competitors to Spanish oranges aren't important trading countries to us, although some are quite poor. Against that, being in a customs union helps with those pesky rules of origin and is one requirement for a barrier free border in Ireland and elsewhere.

    The customs union should be a slam dunk.

    No, being in *the* CU is about our inability to negotiate trade with other countries on our own terms. For example the Canada deal with the EU that took years but contains only minimal concessions on financial services.
    Customs unions are only concerned with tariffs, so they don't affect non tariff barriers on services. We're unlikely to get much more on services than the Canadians if we go down that route, but it has nothing to do with a customs union. The distinction between "A customs union" and "THE customs union" aims to confuse more than inform. You either agree a common set of tariffs and are therefore in a customs union and recognised as such by the WTO, or you're not. We might use relative reductions in tariffs as bargaining counters in third party negotiations. If you don't actually do so because you want to protect farmers or to roll over existing arrangements, you might as well lock in the benefits of being in a customs union. The long term viability of our automotive industry probably depends on remaining in the EU customs union because of Rules of Origin, for example. The difficulty in getting good third party deals comes more from our demandeur status than an inability to vary tariffs. The other party have got what they want while we are looking for things from them, following our departure from the European Union. It puts us in a weak negotiating position.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364
    I was tempted to suggest the gulf between the LDs and most seats was that of Cilic from Federer, but he's fighting back now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.

    There's a massive difference between buying up all the property in the way of a runway or railway, and specifically taking away my property because of how I decide to use it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    Ozzies in a bit of trouble 192-7

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/41818614
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910

    Cyclefree said:

    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.

    Compulsory purchase is not a quick process either.
    Oh I don't think it's a good idea. But it's not the end state of Stalinism either.
    Agreed. Corbyn - rather like May - is good at identifying problems but pretty useless at coming up with practical workable solutions.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650
    edited January 28
    On topic, the next election. Two words, Jacinta Arden.

    NZ Labour had given up hope & looked on course for a bruising defeat.

    When people make confident predictions for 2022 on pb, just smile & think of Jacinta.

    The right leader could easily reinvigorate the Tories or LibDems or Labour. All 3 parties have flawed leaders at the moment.

    Curiously (as with NZ Labour), it may be the party that becomes most desperate that ultimately wins.

    It is desperation that will produce a Jacinta.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compulsory purchase of property (if indeed it is going to be compulsory) is hardly a new idea for government. It happens all the time for infrastructure projects.

    Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.

    Compulsory purchase is not a quick process either.
    Oh I don't think it's a good idea. But it's not the end state of Stalinism either.
    Agreed. Corbyn - rather like May - is good at identifying problems but pretty useless at coming up with practical workable solutions.
    Of course, it is not very difficult identifying the problems.

    The practical workable solutions is the hard bit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Ozzies in a bit of trouble 192-7

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/41818614

    Aus now 3.5 to get the runs. Eng were 4.5 ten mins ago to get the wickets.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    And hypothetically, what happens if there is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with the Liberals a major force holding the balance of power and they wont allow Corbyn to carry out his programme, for example on tuition fees? What happens then?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    edited January 28

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
    Immigration is a tough problem and I don't know what the answer is. I'd prefer if it isn't make the UK such an unpleasant place that nobody would want to come in the first place.
    Two thirds of rough sleepers in London in 2016 weren't UK citizens - nearly half were Eastern European nationals. So to say there isn't a connection isn't looking at the numbers.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426
    Sandpit said:

    Ozzies in a bit of trouble 192-7

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/41818614

    Aus now 3.5 to get the runs. Eng were 4.5 ten mins ago to get the wickets.
    4 and a bit an over looked easy when two proper, set, batsmen were at the crease.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    stevef said:

    And hypothetically, what happens if there is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with the Liberals a major force holding the balance of power and they wont allow Corbyn to carry out his programme, for example on tuition fees? What happens then?

    Would be hilarious to see the LDs stuffed by tuition fees again....

    More seriously, I think the 'anti Tory alliance' theory is less likely with the hard left in charge of Labour.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650
    edited January 28
    stevef said:

    And hypothetically, what happens if there is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with the Liberals a major force holding the balance of power and they wont allow Corbyn to carry out his programme, for example on tuition fees? What happens then?

    Corbyn will be delighted, and the LibDems will never learn.

    Corbyn will implement a partial policy (which is probably affordable), say tuition fees back to 3k a year.

    And point to politics' perennial fall guys, and say "I can't make University tuition free because of the LibDems, but I've done the best I can. The people to blame are over there."

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
    Immigration is a tough problem and I don't know what the answer is. I'd prefer if it isn't make the UK such an unpleasant place that nobody would want to come in the first place.
    Two thirds of rough sleepers in London in 2016 weren't UK citizens - nearly half were Eastern European nationals. So to say there isn't a connection isn't looking at the numbers.
    Surely the most compassionate thing to do with homeless foreigners is to offer them a ticket home?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126
    So do the Lib Dems move left (in the hope of getting tactical support from Greens and Labour) or right (in the hope of getting support from soft Tories)?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    edited January 28

    On topic, the next election. Two words, Jacinta Arden.

    NZ Labour had given up hope & looked on course for a bruising defeat.

    When people make confident predictions for 2022 on pb, just smile & think of Jacinta.

    The right leader could easily reinvigorate the Tories or LibDems or Labour. All 3 parties have flawed leaders at the moment.

    Curiously (as with NZ Labour), it may be the party that becomes most desperate that ultimately wins.

    It is desperation that will produce a Jacinta.

    NZ Labour still came second. They had to do a deal with a nationalist populist party and the Greens to form a coalition.

    Seems to be holding so far - but we shall see. And of course due to her pregnancy the leader of New Zealand first will become PM for two months this year - not bad for a party which got 7 per cent in the election.

    Corbyn might face similar issues - relying on the Lib Dems and probably the SNP and Greens.

  • 203 for 8 now
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,447
    Federer takes the third set, now 2-1 up.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426

    203 for 8 now

    Payne is going to have to go for it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Sandpit said:

    Ozzies in a bit of trouble 192-7

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/41818614

    Aus now 3.5 to get the runs. Eng were 4.5 ten mins ago to get the wickets.
    4 and a bit an over looked easy when two proper, set, batsmen were at the crease.

    And now their bowlers are batting and the required rate is nearly six an over.

    Ooh, and another one caught, 203/8. We could win this despite our collapse earlier and not using all the overs.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    brendan16 said:

    On topic, the next election. Two words, Jacinta Arden.

    NZ Labour had given up hope & looked on course for a bruising defeat.

    When people make confident predictions for 2022 on pb, just smile & think of Jacinta.

    The right leader could easily reinvigorate the Tories or LibDems or Labour. All 3 parties have flawed leaders at the moment.

    Curiously (as with NZ Labour), it may be the party that becomes most desperate that ultimately wins.

    It is desperation that will produce a Jacinta.

    NZ Labour still came second. They had to do a deal with a nationalist populist party and the Greens to form a coalition.

    Seems to be holding so far - but we shall see.

    Corbyn might face similar issues - relying on the Lib Dems and probably the SNP and Greens.

    But the lib dems would not allow Corbyn to carry out a left wing programme
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Sandpit, fairness means confiscation of private property by the state. Surely you're not the sort of capitalist pigdog who thinks you have the right to possess your own property and do with it as you please? Surely you recognise that your property is only acceptable with the permission of the state? Why are you being so ungrateful?

    The state confiscates your private property all the time in the form of income tax.
    Nah - they are “sharing the proceeds of growth”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Aussies out to 6 on Betfair now, if anyone wants to make money from another agonising last minute defeat for England.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 470
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    And hypothetically, what happens if there is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with the Liberals a major force holding the balance of power and they wont allow Corbyn to carry out his programme, for example on tuition fees? What happens then?

    Corbyn will be delighted, and the LibDems will never learn.

    Corbyn will implement a partial policy (which is probably affordable), say tuition fees back to 3k a year.

    And point to politics' perennial fall guys, and say "I can't make University tuition free because of the LibDems, but I've done the best I can. The people to blame are over there."

    The problem with that is that when you raise hopes unrealistically and then dash them you become very unpopular. Not only that Corbyn would have devoted his whole life to marxist socialism, only to implement a new labour type programme approved by the liberals if he got power.
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    Damn Blairites! Nothing better than Tories really!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Dwelling_Management_Orders
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
    Immigration is a tough problem and I don't know what the answer is. I'd prefer if it isn't make the UK such an unpleasant place that nobody would want to come in the first place.
    Two thirds of rough sleepers in London in 2016 weren't UK citizens - nearly half were Eastern European nationals. So to say there isn't a connection isn't looking at the numbers.
    I didn't say there wasn't a connection.

    All other things being equal if you have immigration you are going to put pressure on housing. But there are quite a few other factors. For example overseas investors buying houses in London and keeping them empty as investments will put pressure on housing as well.

    Compulsory purchase of empty houses and restricting immigration are both policies that would help. But both have other consequences. If you are serious about the problem you would look at it in depth. I don't have time to do so myself so I have to select a political party to do it for me.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 470

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    Thanks. He's not having mine! [email protected]@rd!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    Sean_F said:

    So do the Lib Dems move left (in the hope of getting tactical support from Greens and Labour) or right (in the hope of getting support from soft Tories)?

    Or revert to being all things to all men? I mean, that worked out so well in 2015.....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,934
    This Moeen looks a handy bowler. Perhaps we should have played him in the Ashes?
  • brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Who pays the rent
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    FPT:
    Dura_Ace said:

    Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

    May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted......

    it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

    It shouldn't be if you read the polling. Her 'satisfaction' rating matches Corbyn's and is comfortably ahead (±10 points) of her predecessor's lows. If the Tories knife her they may make more enemies than acquire new friends.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Tories need to get planning reforms through and go really hard on Corbyn over housing.

    We know he doesn't believe in private property at all, the idea that a vote for Labour will make it easier for young people to get on the housing ladder is madness.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Yeah, still don't understand. Homeowners will be compulsorily required to lease it to the state, presumably? At what? A market rent? For how long? And what happens if the place gets trashed?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    As I said the more you see and hear Corbyn the more it becomes apparent he is totally unsuited to be PM
    My interest in politics started when I started seeing lots of homeless people shortly after the Tories got in in 1979. I've only heard this story from HYUFD's post, but it has already made me feel better disposed towards Corbyn.
    Of course, we never saw homeless people between 1997 and 2010....

    If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
    Immigration is a tough problem and I don't know what the answer is. I'd prefer if it isn't make the UK such an unpleasant place that nobody would want to come in the first place.
    Travel the world some more. You would see that even after the Brexit vote, the UK is still one of the finest places on the planet to pitch your Dream-tent.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Yeah, still don't understand. Homeowners will be compulsorily required to lease it to the state, presumably? At what? A market rent? For how long? And what happens if the place gets trashed?
    State finds a tenant. Rent less management costs and any refurbishment costs paid to the owner. Lasts for 7 years. On trashing I don’t know, but presumably council has obligation to return in the refurbished state (since the owner has paid for it)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Dwelling_Management_Orders
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    "You only sing when you're winning...."

    BBC "The official attendance is 53,781, and 15,000 of those have already left. I just don't understand that. It's a Sunday afternoon and the match is set up nicely."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    edited January 28
    Charles said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Yeah, still don't understand. Homeowners will be compulsorily required to lease it to the state, presumably? At what? A market rent? For how long? And what happens if the place gets trashed?
    State finds a tenant. Rent less management costs and any refurbishment costs paid to the owner. Lasts for 7 years. On trashing I don’t know, but presumably council has obligation to return in the refurbished state (since the owner has paid for it)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Dwelling_Management_Orders
    How much more stupid legislation is there from Blair's time which has been almost dormant but never figured we'd end up with a PM Corbyn and not in the EU?

    Civil Contingencies Act 2004 springs to mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465
    Corbyn should make something of this: Deutsche Bahn to create 19,000 new jobs in the next year and is planning to run 20% more train services.

    http://www.spiegel.de/reise/deutschland/deutsche-bahn-19-000-neue-jobs-in-2018-a-1190193.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    despite being the only party to advocate remaining in the EU

    You know that. And I know that. But voters don't:

    Party position on Brexit Clear (net, excl. DK):
    Con: -22
    Lab: -33
    LibD: -30
  • 229 for 9
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,934

    229 for 9

    'fraid not.
  • Wicket reversed
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126

    FPT:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

    May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted......

    it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

    It shouldn't be if you read the polling. Her 'satisfaction' rating matches Corbyn's and is comfortably ahead (±10 points) of her predecessor's lows. If the Tories knife her they may make more enemies than acquire new friends.
    May is not unpopular with the general public.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    229 for 9

    Or not
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Who pays the rent
    Housing benefit. The current position is that most homeless people will still have their future accommodation paid for, but often it has to be a hostel or a B&B. A property left empty for future speculation seems a reasonable alternative.

    The practical effect will be to nudge speculative owners into putting long-empty properties on the market for rent themselves. Good.
  • Sandpit said:

    229 for 9

    Or not
    Forgot about reviews
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    Thanks. He's not having mine! [email protected]@rd!
    You live in an empty property? Schroedinger's PB poster.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Yeah, still don't understand. Homeowners will be compulsorily required to lease it to the state, presumably? At what? A market rent? For how long? And what happens if the place gets trashed?
    Same as happens with properties buy to let landlords rent to councils - the council pays you a rent and hands it back at the end cleaned and if necessary repaired.

    Very easy to avoid - don't leave properties empty long term and rent them out yourself or move in yourself.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,309

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Who pays the rent
    Housing benefit. The current position is that most homeless people will still have their future accommodation paid for, but often it has to be a hostel or a B&B. A property left empty for future speculation seems a reasonable alternative.

    The practical effect will be to nudge speculative owners into putting long-empty properties on the market for rent themselves. Good.
    Nick, I work in but cannot afford to live in London. Why should the homeless get prioritised?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,483

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Who pays the rent
    Don't worry your little head about details comrade. All will be well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Sandpit said:

    229 for 9

    Or not
    Forgot about reviews
    Those are difficult for the ump to call, was plumb in front when it hit the pads but Hawkeye said it pitched an inch outside leg stump.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 470

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    Thanks. He's not having mine! [email protected]@rd!
    You live in an empty property? Schroedinger's PB poster.
    No, but I do have a vacant property.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,469
    edited January 28
    It is now 236 for 9
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Good analysis, and I think this is all largely academic unless they can get a leader who can make waves and get them noticed.

    There are 7-8 seats there they should be able to swipe from the Tories in a "change" election, but I suspect fear of Corbyn within them is a greater motivator than kick-the-Tories out, at present.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465

    It is now 236 for 9

    Wicket means wicket.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    edited January 28
    9th wicket gone! 24 runs from 21 balls,
    Aus 2.42, Eng 1.69 (because this is a betting site!)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,502

    Corbyn should make something of this: Deutsche Bahn to create 19,000 new jobs in the next year and is planning to run 20% more train services.

    http://www.spiegel.de/reise/deutschland/deutsche-bahn-19-000-neue-jobs-in-2018-a-1190193.html

    Deutsche Bahn already runs a decent chunk of the British railway system. Corbyn wants to kick them out and put some hopeless British organisation in charge instead.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    tlg86 said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn commits to purchase 9000 houses straight away for the homeless and allow local authorities to take over vacant properties

    What is your source for this? The only references I can find relate to Corbyn's cynical knee jerk reaction after Grenfell.?
    Andrew Marr show - he said it
    I assume he is simply taking over long term empty properties that aren't in use. Simple answer - rent it out to someone and your property won't be taken over. Leave it empty for ever as an investment property - sorry that's no longer going to be encouraged.

    He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
    Who pays the rent
    Housing benefit. The current position is that most homeless people will still have their future accommodation paid for, but often it has to be a hostel or a B&B. A property left empty for future speculation seems a reasonable alternative.

    The practical effect will be to nudge speculative owners into putting long-empty properties on the market for rent themselves. Good.
    Nick, I work in but cannot afford to live in London. Why should the homeless get prioritised?
    Because that's the law. Social Housing is no longer allocated on the basis of responsibility, whether you work hard or add value to your community or do a useful job - but putting it brutally on your ability to churn out lots of children you don't have the means to provide for.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    Paine has to get runs in this over...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,894
    kle4 said:

    A depressingly hard road ahead for the LDs. Such big swings for so little game.

    Round my way they put in no effort, where usually they put in loads, and as a result are still not even recovered to the string second place they usually have. On the other hand, they succeeded in winning back a target seat where all their effort went.

    So while as the table shows they don't have high votes in enough places, defendibg what they have then building on the targets seems the best approach when no massive swell of support can be expected. It risks labour supplanting them as the not tory vote in some places, but they need seats. They lost a few they'd hoped to have held last time, but it worked in Scotland.

    Lying bunch of shysters , they almost make Tories seem human
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,839
    The weird thing for the Lib Dems at the moment is that the trend of both of the major parties going to the extremes has not left a space in the middle? Why not? I think the only sensible explanation is that politics is being dominated by fear. We are much more concerned with what we don't like than what we do.

    So Tories deeply depressed by the ineptitude of May see Corbyn and think keeping him out is a priority. Labour inclined supporters, except the far left, may be in deep gloom about Corbyn but fear a Tory party where the influence of extreme Brexiteers is excessive, to put it politely. When keeping the other lot out is the priority and it is close the Lib Dems look like an indulgence. They did better when one party was dominant (Blair's new Labour in particular) and what we were looking for was a reasonably principled and articulate opposition. We don't have one of those at the moment but the Lib Dems are going to have to wait until it is less close.

    O/T I am amazed the cricket has got so tight.
This discussion has been closed.