Next Tory leader market-Gove was backed with Corals yesterday and is down to 12-1 with them.Today's market mover is Raab who has been clipped into 20s and 16s across the market.3rd fav Leadsom-TMay was 3rd fav-remains steady at best-priced 10-1.Discard 1st and 2nd favs. ,Mogg and Johnson.
I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.
Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
Jacob Rees Mogg is highly selective in his loyalty to Rome. The Pope has identified solidarity and support for refugees as the key moral issues facing Europe, yet Rees Mogg was the only MP of any party to vote to close a child refugee centre.
His loyalty is more to JP2 than the Catholic church (and specifically the current incumbent).
Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
With JRM - I would say UK.
If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.
So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?
I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
I expect that if the government passed a law that explicitly required him to act contrary to his beliefs, for example making Anglican worship compulsory, then he would defy it.
So the EU is for him just the wrong kind of sovereignty.
With JRM, I suspect that his ultimate loyalty is to his own conscience - as it is with most people. I don't think there's much evidence that he slavishly follows Rome's line. Isn't it more that he feels comfortable with its teachings because it matches his own world-view and values, rather than that his values are derived from Rome?
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
With JRM - I would say UK.
If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.
So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?
I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
Fortunately the Uk has moved on so far from the medieval views of the RC church that these papist policies are irrelevant and have no chance of being repealed.
Even Imam Mayor Khan in London hasn't got much further than banning bikini posters on the tube.
Do you really think it's acceptable to refer to the London Mayor as "Imam Khan" simply because he is a muslim?
I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.
Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
Jacob Rees Mogg is highly selective in his loyalty to Rome. The Pope has identified solidarity and support for refugees as the key moral issues facing Europe, yet Rees Mogg was the only MP of any party to vote to close a child refugee centre.
His loyalty is more to JP2 than the Catholic church (and specifically the current incumbent).
I don't know if anyone's noticed, but in Spain, the Catalan parliament has decided not to decide on re-electing Puigdemont as leader. The vote has been postponed - with no new date set - which leaves Catalonia without a leader.
The developed world, and in particular the Eurozone, has put on a significant spurt of growth in the last 18 months.
I don't think that's due to Brexit, more to savings rates across the world now returning to more normal levels after having been elevated for some time.
I agree.
It is yet another level of complication for Brexit performance. When Osborne took over in 2010 the policy of "austerity" was substantially overstated compared to the reality. The result was that the UK economy continued to be stimulated by very large government deficits. This could have been offset by very poor wage growth but the Great British consumer dug into their already meagre savings to keep consumption growing. The result was that the UK outperformed the rest of the EU (where the German dominated ECB was imposing a much harsher regime) by a considerable distance.
In more recent times our deficit has in fact fallen to more "normal" levels. At the same time the consumer has found it more difficult to maintain spending after a very prolonged fall in real wages. The BoE has also stopped QE. All of these have resulted in a slow down in the UK economy although they have been offset by the fall in Sterling after the Brexit vote to some extent. In contrast the ECB has relaxed monetary policy somewhat on the continent belatedly taking up QE and the EU consumer has picked up the baton from the UK consumer to some degree. The result is that their growth has accelerated.
This really emphasises Robert's main point. The domestic policies of governments are vastly more important to growth than any possible friction arising in trade. Trying to identify a Brexit effect on growth will be impossible because domestic policy will completely swamp the marginal effects.
For all the talk of 'living within your means' most people want to spend more than they earn and want the government to provide the means for them to do so.
Two decades of that being put into practice is now finally coming to an end.
Two decades only? It's as if they massive tax cuts and public utilities of the 80s never happened.
It's more like 35 years of credit fueled spending.
For all the loadsamoney and red braced yuppie froth, personal borrowing and spending was much lower in that era and government debt reached a low about 1991.
The UK also managed to run trade surpluses for much of the 1980s while the toursim deficit was much smaller then.
Yes, by using Capital Sales Income (oil, public utility sales) to fund operational expenses.
In the mid eighties Oil revenue was almost 10% of UK tax income.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
Ordinary Tories (and indeed most members) are loyal. Who knew?
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I often disagree with you but I think you're right on that. A particular memory which sticks in my mind is sitting behind two prim middle aged ladies on a train just after May's party conference debacle last Autumn. They were both reading the Daily Mail and spent the best part of an hour going on about how sorry they felt for that nice Mrs May and how appalling was Boris Johnson's behaviour. I think the political bubble is quite out of kilter with middle England on this.
Mr. 1000, cheers for that Catalan update. Given the composition of the Parliament there, will there be further efforts to become independent?
The problem the independence movement has is that - while they have the majority of seats in the parliament - pro-independence parties fell short of 50% of votes in the recent elections.
The result of this is, I think, is that they have stepped back from UDI, but much depends on Madrid.
So, for now independence is postponed. But it could be back on the table if relations worsen.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I imagine there'd have been similar levels of support for Thatcher in the late summer of 1990. Part of it is possibly the mistaken assumption that the departure of May would mean Corbyn becoming Prime Minister which isn't something that would happen but it's something people clearly think could and would happen.
Mr. Hemmelig, stereotypes can often be defied. Some years ago I was walking the dog with my mother, when we passed a gang of youths in a park. To my surprise, they were discussing the forthcoming General Election...
@patrickwintour: Intrigue. Unite GS Len McCluskey says "My personal hope and belief is that the Brexit deal that comes back will be rejected, leading to T May having to resign and to an early GE". That GE then becomes a referendum. If MPs don't reject deal, he will look at any option.
@patrickwintour: Intrigue. Unite GS Len McCluskey says "My personal hope and belief is that the Brexit deal that comes back will be rejected, leading to T May having to resign and to an early GE". That GE then becomes a referendum. If MPs don't reject deal, he will look at any option.
This is clearly Corbyn's strategy. The only sure way the Tories can pre-empt it is by offering a second referendum.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
Yes, the political bubble and it’s requirement to feed the daily news cycle are way out of kilter with the general population. I think that most people believe she’s trying her best given the cards she was dealt.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I often disagree with you but I think you're right on that. A particular memory which sticks in my mind is sitting behind two prim middle aged ladies on a train just after May's party conference debacle last Autumn. They were both reading the Daily Mail and spent the best part of an hour going on about how sorry they felt for that nice Mrs May and how appalling was Boris Johnson's behaviour. I think the political bubble is quite out of kilter with middle England on this.
It is good to disagree at times but equally good to agree.
I do not think TM has a long term future but the public do see her dedication to public service and that she is basically a decent person doing her best in dreadful circumstances as something to respect
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I imagine there'd have been similar levels of support for Thatcher in the late summer of 1990. Part of it is possibly the mistaken assumption that the departure of May would mean Corbyn becoming Prime Minister which isn't something that would happen but it's something people clearly think could and would happen.
My recollection of 1990 is that large numbers of Tory voters wanted Thatcher to go. Especially outside the South East. One of the few failings of your excellent posts is that they are so London-centric and London was a major exception to the general Thatcher Must Go mood in that year (ironically the exact opposite of the situation today). May has many problems but I don't think there is a groundswell of her natural voters wanting her out. Most outside the political bubble can see the obvious reality that no-one could do any better and plenty could cock it up even more.
@patrickwintour: Intrigue. Unite GS Len McCluskey says "My personal hope and belief is that the Brexit deal that comes back will be rejected, leading to T May having to resign and to an early GE". That GE then becomes a referendum. If MPs don't reject deal, he will look at any option.
This is clearly Corbyn's strategy. The only sure way the Tories can pre-empt it is by offering a second referendum.
If it’s clear that there’s not the Parliamentary numbers for the deal (as Labour and SNP will blindly oppose any deal) then it may well end up being put to the people. But it will have to be the Noel Edmunds question - leave with the deal or leave with no deal.
I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.
Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
Jacob Rees Mogg is highly selective in his loyalty to Rome. The Pope has identified solidarity and support for refugees as the key moral issues facing Europe, yet Rees Mogg was the only MP of any party to vote to close a child refugee centre.
His loyalty is more to JP2 than the Catholic church (and specifically the current incumbent).
It all went downhill after Vatican II.
The sequel is never as good as the original.
I'm waiting for "Vatican III - The Return of the Inquisition"
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.
Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...
Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:
I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
I heard a lot of gays moved to Saudi, Pakistan and Iran in protest to escape our harsh Christian influenced laws.
As long as you play by the rules, being gay in some of those countries probably isn't so bad. Islam, I believe, rules that what happens in the privacy of your home is between you and God. (I am not sure I go along with this if it tolerates domestic violence). Also the Koran, while not endorsing homosexuality is less fire and brimstone about it than the Christian Bible, I understand.
Do you never tire of publishing known remain positions. As I have said earlier nothing is changing the polarised nature of the debate and you can continue with your EU propaganda as long as you like but it is not working
Do you never tire of publishing known remain positions. As I have said earlier nothing is changing the polarised nature of the debate and you can continue with your EU propaganda as long as you like but it is not working
I posted that one because it's a subtle shift from Soubry towards openly supporting a second referendum.
The British public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey reveals today. Importantly, alternative Tory leaders are likely to reduce support for the Conservatives. The poll finds:
69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down.
That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.
Good reading for May, is this enough to calm things down?
It's a great device. And if you are a consumer of Google cloud services then you'll absolutely love it.
I'd rather sandpaper my eyeballs than use Google services (except for search which, sadly, I can't wean myself off), but there are some astonishing value Chromebooks. I bought a little HP which is as light as a MacBook, cost £200, and put Ubuntu on it. Absolutely spot on for what I need.
Do you never tire of publishing known remain positions. As I have said earlier nothing is changing the polarised nature of the debate and you can continue with your EU propaganda as long as you like but it is not working
I posted that one because it's a subtle shift from Soubry towards openly supporting a second referendum.
Soubry is like yourself - wants to overturn the result but the problem is that both sides have exhausted their arguments and opinion is not changing
The British public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey reveals today. Importantly, alternative Tory leaders are likely to reduce support for the Conservatives. The poll finds:
69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down.
That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.
Good reading for May, is this enough to calm things down?
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I often disagree with you but I think you're right on that. A particular memory which sticks in my mind is sitting behind two prim middle aged ladies on a train just after May's party conference debacle last Autumn. They were both reading the Daily Mail and spent the best part of an hour going on about how sorry they felt for that nice Mrs May and how appalling was Boris Johnson's behaviour. I think the political bubble is quite out of kilter with middle England on this.
It is good to disagree at times but equally good to agree.
I do not think TM has a long term future but the public do see her dedication to public service and that she is basically a decent person doing her best in dreadful circumstances as something to respect
I think this is partly down to the fact that the politicos and media people scarcely leave inner London, except for a train ride to the equally unrepresentative bubble of BBC Salford. There is an extremely strong anti-Tory and anti-May disdain in London at the moment which just isn't present anywhere else where the Tories hold seats. Even here in Mid Sussex, less than 20 miles from Greater London, the feeling is totally different despite being a Tory-voting Remain district.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I often disagree with you but I think you're right on that. A particular memory which sticks in my mind is sitting behind two prim middle aged ladies on a train just after May's party conference debacle last Autumn. They were both reading the Daily Mail and spent the best part of an hour going on about how sorry they felt for that nice Mrs May and how appalling was Boris Johnson's behaviour. I think the political bubble is quite out of kilter with middle England on this.
It is good to disagree at times but equally good to agree.
I do not think TM has a long term future but the public do see her dedication to public service and that she is basically a decent person doing her best in dreadful circumstances as something to respect
I think this is partly down to the fact that the politicos and media people scarcely leave inner London, except for a train ride to the equally unrepresentative bubble of BBC Salford. There is an extremely strong anti-Tory and anti-May disdain in London at the moment which just isn't present anywhere else where the Tories hold seats. Even here in Mid Sussex, less than 20 miles from Greater London, the feeling is totally different despite being a Tory-voting Remain district.
Do you never tire of publishing known remain positions. As I have said earlier nothing is changing the polarised nature of the debate and you can continue with your EU propaganda as long as you like but it is not working
I posted that one because it's a subtle shift from Soubry towards openly supporting a second referendum.
Soubry is like yourself - wants to overturn the result but the problem is that both sides have exhausted their arguments and opinion is not changing
I'm pretty sure David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson have a different opinion about Brexit now than they did 18 months ago.
That is amazing support for her in the present torrent of criticism and re-affirms the view that the public quite respect her and that the media and the politicos continue to talk to each other detached as so often from the ordinary voter in the street
I often disagree with you but I think you're right on that. A particular memory which sticks in my mind is sitting behind two prim middle aged ladies on a train just after May's party conference debacle last Autumn. They were both reading the Daily Mail and spent the best part of an hour going on about how sorry they felt for that nice Mrs May and how appalling was Boris Johnson's behaviour. I think the political bubble is quite out of kilter with middle England on this.
It is good to disagree at times but equally good to agree.
I do not think TM has a long term future but the public do see her dedication to public service and that she is basically a decent person doing her best in dreadful circumstances as something to respect
I think this is partly down to the fact that the politicos and media people scarcely leave inner London, except for a train ride to the equally unrepresentative bubble of BBC Salford. There is an extremely strong anti-Tory and anti-May disdain in London at the moment which just isn't present anywhere else where the Tories hold seats. Even here in Mid Sussex, less than 20 miles from Greater London, the feeling is totally different despite being a Tory-voting Remain district.
My sense here on the other side of the the Home Counties is that May is tolerated though not particularly liked; and that there are no other plausible Conservatives with any degree of support. Most local activists seem to be keeping their head down, either concentrating on the locals or on their own responsibilities/enthusiasms. It's very much "always keep a-hold of Nurse / For fear of finding something worse" right now.
My recollection of 1990 is that large numbers of Tory voters wanted Thatcher to go. Especially outside the South East. One of the few failings of your excellent posts is that they are so London-centric and London was a major exception to the general Thatcher Must Go mood in that year (ironically the exact opposite of the situation today). May has many problems but I don't think there is a groundswell of her natural voters wanting her out. Most outside the political bubble can see the obvious reality that no-one could do any better and plenty could cock it up even more.
Thank you for the kind word. I can't help it - I live in London, my anecdotal posts will have a London bias. Of course the provincial bias of other posters should also be noted.
My recollection of 1990 was there was a paradox. There were Conservatives and there were those who supported Thatcher and the two weren't always the same. Thatcher's support came from the "converts" while traditional Conservative supporters were among the most antithetical to her.
Perhaps for all her 15 years of leadership she had always been "the outsider" to some.
I've said on here before May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is proven to be a loser and b) someone else is proven to be a winner. Neither has happened yet - one or two polls have pointed toward a) but none have pointed to b).
In 1990, what did for Thatcher wasn't the poll showing the Conservatives ten points behind Labour under her leadership but the poll showing that gap eradicated by Heseltine and later Major. In the mid-90s Major's Conservatives trailed Blair's Labour by miles - the problem was no other Conservative was doing any better and several would have been even worse.
We may be seeing history repeat - IF the Conservatives drift into a narrow but widening deficit to Labour, the question will be who can close the gap ?
The British public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey reveals today. Importantly, alternative Tory leaders are likely to reduce support for the Conservatives. The poll finds:
69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down.
That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.
Good reading for May, is this enough to calm things down?
That's the Evening Standard front page sorted. Not.
My recollection of 1990 is that large numbers of Tory voters wanted Thatcher to go. Especially outside the South East. One of the few failings of your excellent posts is that they are so London-centric and London was a major exception to the general Thatcher Must Go mood in that year (ironically the exact opposite of the situation today). May has many problems but I don't think there is a groundswell of her natural voters wanting her out. Most outside the political bubble can see the obvious reality that no-one could do any better and plenty could cock it up even more.
Thank you for the kind word. I can't help it - I live in London, my anecdotal posts will have a London bias.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
I think this is partly down to the fact that the politicos and media people scarcely leave inner London, except for a train ride to the equally unrepresentative bubble of BBC Salford. There is an extremely strong anti-Tory and anti-May disdain in London at the moment which just isn't present anywhere else where the Tories hold seats. Even here in Mid Sussex, less than 20 miles from Greater London, the feeling is totally different despite being a Tory-voting Remain district.
I live in a seat with a 40,000 Labour majority. There aren't many Conservative voters to ask in all honesty. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN (I thought it would be nearer 60-40) so I don't get the sense of a "feeling".
The British public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey reveals today. Importantly, alternative Tory leaders are likely to reduce support for the Conservatives. The poll finds:
69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down.
That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.
Good reading for May, is this enough to calm things down?
That's the Evening Standard front page sorted. Not.
“More than 45% think PM should quit” is of course the more likely headline. (Of those who answered the question) Or maybe “More than half of Londoners call on PM to step down”
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
@patrickwintour: Intrigue. Unite GS Len McCluskey says "My personal hope and belief is that the Brexit deal that comes back will be rejected, leading to T May having to resign and to an early GE". That GE then becomes a referendum. If MPs don't reject deal, he will look at any option.
He's clueless if he believes May resigning means an early GE.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
They will in London but not sure elsewhere. Indeed I expect the Lib Dems to do well as they are traditionally good at local level. I expect UKIP to disappear
Thank you for the kind word. I can't help it - I live in London, my anecdotal posts will have a London bias. Of course the provincial bias of other posters should also be noted.
My recollection of 1990 was there was a paradox. There were Conservatives and there were those who supported Thatcher and the two weren't always the same. Thatcher's support came from the "converts" while traditional Conservative supporters were among the most antithetical to her.
Perhaps for all her 15 years of leadership she had always been "the outsider" to some.
I've said on here before May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is proven to be a loser and b) someone else is proven to be a winner. Neither has happened yet - one or two polls have pointed toward a) but none have pointed to b).
In 1990, what did for Thatcher wasn't the poll showing the Conservatives ten points behind Labour under her leadership but the poll showing that gap eradicated by Heseltine and later Major. In the mid-90s Major's Conservatives trailed Blair's Labour by miles - the problem was no other Conservative was doing any better and several would have been even worse.
We may be seeing history repeat - IF the Conservatives drift into a narrow but widening deficit to Labour, the question will be who can close the gap ?
What did for Thatcher more than anything was the massive unpopularity of the poll tax pretty much everywhere north of Watford. Once it became crystal clear that she wasn't going to countenance axing the poll tax, 150 or so MPs mostly from the affected region feared losing their seats and this formed the backbone of Heseltine's challenge.
You're right that London was polarised, with anti poll-tax sentiment largely confined to the Labour boroughs, offset by strong support in most of the Tory areas.
In 1990 there were many big beasts who could competently pick up the reins from Thatcher and we weren't facing the same level of challenge as we are with Brexit; and the next GE was looming much closer than at the present time. I'm not convinced that even a consistent poll deficit would bring May down amongst the public. If she goes it will be entirely down to her own MPs.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
I also read Hammond's article in the Standard on the train home last night and thought it pretty extraordinary from a recent minister.
It's obvious the Tories are going to get an awful pounding in London in May (don't tell HYUFD) but unless May was replaced by a business-friendly Remainer like Hammond or Hunt a change of leader isn't going to change that. In the more likely instance that she was replaced by a hard Leaver like Boris or Mogg the Tory performance in London would be even worse.
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
Really interesting read on Democrats and white, working class vote. Another set of reasons why Biden may run.
Also has interesting info on exit polling in States.
"This suggests the exit polls were not just wrong but massively wrong, especially in the context of Rust Belt swing states, where errors were even larger and the political implications of misunderstanding graver. (This is a longstanding problem that is probably intrinsic to the exit poll methodology of public interviewing, which favors educated respondents. Among other reasons, educated voters may be more willing to take a survey in a public place, and so wind up being overrepresented.)"
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
The Tories currently have 318 MPs and there are 10 DUP MPs and 326 is needed for a majority. The Tories need to lose three by elections to no longer have a majority with the DUP (albeit that depends on Sinn Fein taking their seats to support Corbyn)
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Would they under Corbyn minority government needing support?
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Would they under Corbyn minority government needing support?
Depends what Corbyn offered them? A border poll with his govt taking a neutral position and him personally acting as a persuader for a United Ireland and I could see them on the first Ryanair over...
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
They will in London but not sure elsewhere. Indeed I expect the Lib Dems to do well as they are traditionally good at local level. I expect UKIP to disappear
UKIP disappearing is very good news for shoring up the Tory vote. A lot of marginal local seats are only marginal because 500 natural Tory voters have been voting UKIP for the past few years. I strongly suspect this will dampen down the Tory losses.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
I also read Hammond's article in the Standard on the train home last night and thought it pretty extraordinary from a recent minister.
It's obvious the Tories are going to get an awful pounding in London in May (don't tell HYUFD) but unless May was replaced by a business-friendly Remainer like Hammond or Hunt a change of leader isn't going to change that. In the more likely instance that she was replaced by a hard Leaver like Boris or Mogg the Tory performance in London would be even worse.
Don't forget Labour won the 2014 London local elections by 11% over the Tories and 20 councils to 9 for the Tories, UKIP won 10% in London then so an ardent Remainer would likely fail to win many more from Labour given Labour comfortably beat the pro EU Cameron led Tories anyway in the capital while failing to gain as many from UKIP as a Brexiter would (and the latter point would be even more the case in the local elections outside London where Labour led by 2% in 2014 and UKIP won 17% of the vote)
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Would they under Corbyn minority government needing support?
Not unless they can find a way to take their seats without pledging to serve the Queen.
If Skinner serves through to the 2022 election, he will be the first nonagenarian MP since 1972.
I can easily imagine Skinner staying on past that. Has there ever been a centenarian MP before?
Not many ex-miners make it into their 90s, let alone 100. Decades of coal dust and smoking is a particularly deadly combination. In the mining village I grew up in the men were lucky to reach retirement age whilst their wives often last to their 80s and 90s. There are few ex-miners alive in the area now but many thousands of miners' widows. So the odds are sadly very much against Skinner becoming the first 100 year old MP. In any case I'd hope he will step down gracefully now the threat of a Blairite successor being imposed has disappeared.
Wasn’t the Q4 figure 0.5%, which would annualise to about 2.1%?
I'm sure william will apologise if it turns out his pro-EU propaganda is incorrect.
The on off debate as to whether we are 0.1% here, or 0.5% there, or 4% over 15 years, or 6%, or 1% down already on where we would've been, or whatever, I think misses a few things amongst which are:-
1) Economic forecasting does not have a stellar record. E.g. Osborne's predicted recession if we voted out, or the various international bodies getting the UK economy wrong in recent years, (Brown's "no more boom and bust" anyone?) so forecasting over a decade way is for the birds.
2) Though I did not "vote to make myself poorer", I did so with my eyes open and I am not, nor was ever, going to sell my soul for a decimal point of GDP over a year or a few points over a decade.
For many, this was not about the money. It never was. Having come to see the EU as not interested in reform (in my view), it's about wanting to live in a responsive democracy in my old age, where I can still meaningfully fire my govt, and not have my identity rubbed out for some attempt at creating a "superstate".
If that involves some sacrifice in my wallet so I can look myself in the mirror comfortably in 15 years time so be it. I do not wish that of course, and actually I don't think that will be the case, but I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by a graph of the last 4 quarters stats on anything.
May should stay leader (net): GB: +7 London: -5 South: +14 Midlands: +6 North: +5 Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
Perhaps a clue the Conservatives will be taking a pounding in the May local elections. Stephen Hammond made an extraordinary plea for a Tory vote in May - he sees a "difficult" night ahead.
They will in London but not sure elsewhere. Indeed I expect the Lib Dems to do well as they are traditionally good at local level. I expect UKIP to disappear
Worth reminding ourselves of the 2014 baseline (note - these elections coincided with the 2014 Euroelections, and were themselves coming off elections that coincided with the 2010 general election (give or take reorganisations and one-off all-out elections following boundary reviews etc).
The Lib Dems might poll better than a NEV of 13% but if they do, it won't be by much and it's not impossible that they won't do so at all. Even if they do, both Con and Lab will be up on their 2014 shares so the extent to which the Lib Dems can make gains will depend on their ability to target SW London and other areas of promise.
For Con and Lab, the scope to make big net gains looks pretty limited unless one or other can shift the national polls in their advantage. I agree with Big_G that Labour ought to make decent gains in London but these may well be offset to a good degree elsewhere in the country.
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Would they under Corbyn minority government needing support?
Depends what Corbyn offered them? A border poll with his govt taking a neutral position and him personally acting as a persuader for a United Ireland and I could see them on the first Ryanair over...
They don't take their seats because it would require a vote of allegiance to the Queen, right?
Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
No - the Tories need to lose seven by elections.
Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Would they under Corbyn minority government needing support?
I very much doubt it. Much of their romance comes from eschewing the institutions of their imperial oppressors. They'd also then have to partake in grubby Westminster politicking, which would tarnish the republican magic even further.
If that involves some sacrifice in my wallet so I can look myself in the mirror comfortably in 15 years time so be it. I do not wish that of course, and actually I don't think that will be the case, but I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by a graph of the last 4 quarters stats on anything.
That's a reasonable position.
I think the more significant thing about the current economic data is the success of the Eurozone. The rhetoric about it being a burning building and that we were shackled to a corpse is being shown to be entirely hollow.
Comments
(I love my, admittedly not cheap, Pixelbook.)
I spoke to your father yesterday before purchase.
It’s going to be used mostly for editing PB when I’m out and about.
In the mid eighties Oil revenue was almost 10% of UK tax income.
The result of this is, I think, is that they have stepped back from UDI, but much depends on Madrid.
So, for now independence is postponed. But it could be back on the table if relations worsen.
Mr. 1000, cheers.
69% of Tory voters want her to stay - even Remainers are evenly split: 37:38
I do not think TM has a long term future but the public do see her dedication to public service and that she is basically a decent person doing her best in dreadful circumstances as something to respect
You can download the various Office apps/extensions, so far Excel seems to work very well.
Though it takes a bit of getting used to using Excel through Chrome.
I'm waiting for "Vatican III - The Return of the Inquisition"
Still exploring.
As a byproduct of becoming independent, I think perhaps 17,410,742 did.
The British public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey reveals today. Importantly, alternative Tory leaders are likely to reduce support for the Conservatives. The poll finds:
69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down.
That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.
Good reading for May, is this enough to calm things down?
My recollection of 1990 was there was a paradox. There were Conservatives and there were those who supported Thatcher and the two weren't always the same. Thatcher's support came from the "converts" while traditional Conservative supporters were among the most antithetical to her.
Perhaps for all her 15 years of leadership she had always been "the outsider" to some.
I've said on here before May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is proven to be a loser and b) someone else is proven to be a winner. Neither has happened yet - one or two polls have pointed toward a) but none have pointed to b).
In 1990, what did for Thatcher wasn't the poll showing the Conservatives ten points behind Labour under her leadership but the poll showing that gap eradicated by Heseltine and later Major. In the mid-90s Major's Conservatives trailed Blair's Labour by miles - the problem was no other Conservative was doing any better and several would have been even worse.
We may be seeing history repeat - IF the Conservatives drift into a narrow but widening deficit to Labour, the question will be who can close the gap ?
GB: +7
London: -5
South: +14
Midlands: +6
North: +5
Scotland: -4
London a clear outlier in England.
https://twitter.com/Rupert_Seggins/status/958281778355232768
(Of those who answered the question)
Or maybe “More than half of Londoners call on PM to step down”
If anything it extends the parliament.
You're right that London was polarised, with anti poll-tax sentiment largely confined to the Labour boroughs, offset by strong support in most of the Tory areas.
In 1990 there were many big beasts who could competently pick up the reins from Thatcher and we weren't facing the same level of challenge as we are with Brexit; and the next GE was looming much closer than at the present time. I'm not convinced that even a consistent poll deficit would bring May down amongst the public. If she goes it will be entirely down to her own MPs.
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/958283378306011137
Britain's economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2017, new data from the ONS shows.
GDP grew by 1.5% on a year-to-year basis in the quarter, beating forecasts of 1.4% growth.
On a quarterly basis, growth came in at 0.5%, also ahead of forecasts.
It's obvious the Tories are going to get an awful pounding in London in May (don't tell HYUFD) but unless May was replaced by a business-friendly Remainer like Hammond or Hunt a change of leader isn't going to change that. In the more likely instance that she was replaced by a hard Leaver like Boris or Mogg the Tory performance in London would be even worse.
Also has interesting info on exit polling in States.
"This suggests the exit polls were not just wrong but massively wrong, especially in the context of Rust Belt swing states, where errors were even larger and the political implications of misunderstanding graver. (This is a longstanding problem that is probably intrinsic to the exit poll methodology of public interviewing, which favors educated respondents. Among other reasons, educated voters may be more willing to take a survey in a public place, and so wind up being overrepresented.)"
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/1/29/16945106/democrats-white-working-class-demographics-alabama-clinton-obama-base
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Records_of_members_of_parliament_of_the_United_Kingdom
1) Economic forecasting does not have a stellar record. E.g. Osborne's predicted recession if we voted out, or the various international bodies getting the UK economy wrong in recent years, (Brown's "no more boom and bust" anyone?) so forecasting over a decade way is for the birds.
2) Though I did not "vote to make myself poorer", I did so with my eyes open and I am not, nor was ever, going to sell my soul for a decimal point of GDP over a year or a few points over a decade.
For many, this was not about the money. It never was. Having come to see the EU as not interested in reform (in my view), it's about wanting to live in a responsive democracy in my old age, where I can still meaningfully fire my govt, and not have my identity rubbed out for some attempt at creating a "superstate".
If that involves some sacrifice in my wallet so I can look myself in the mirror comfortably in 15 years time so be it. I do not wish that of course, and actually I don't think that will be the case, but I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by a graph of the last 4 quarters stats on anything.
% Won Ldn +/- Lab 31 2121 1052 +324 Con 29 1364 612 -236 LD 13 427 118 -310 UKIP 17 166 12 +163The Lib Dems might poll better than a NEV of 13% but if they do, it won't be by much and it's not impossible that they won't do so at all. Even if they do, both Con and Lab will be up on their 2014 shares so the extent to which the Lib Dems can make gains will depend on their ability to target SW London and other areas of promise.
For Con and Lab, the scope to make big net gains looks pretty limited unless one or other can shift the national polls in their advantage. I agree with Big_G that Labour ought to make decent gains in London but these may well be offset to a good degree elsewhere in the country.
https://twitter.com/i/moments/958306353453436930
I think the more significant thing about the current economic data is the success of the Eurozone. The rhetoric about it being a burning building and that we were shackled to a corpse is being shown to be entirely hollow.