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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “N

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

For those who have been following the BES report that concludes that there was no “youthquake” at GE17 the former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, makes some controversial observation in Prospect casting doubt on the core conclusion that has made the headlines.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Surely we can tell from the YouGov model if there was a Youthquake or not, given how accurate that model was.
  • Oh and primus inter pares
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,077
    Love it when the mythbusters produce their own myths.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,649

    Oh and primus inter pares

    Sixtus inter Rees-Mogges
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,382

    Oh and primus inter pares

    Cooking on gas.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083
    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    Peter Kellner makes a good case for not proven but it's not disproved.

    What seems undeniable is the massive increase in turnout that the BES found in the 25-40 age group and its sharp swing to Labour. A millennialquake, perhaps.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126
    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    No. And never shall.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    Good advice from George Osborne which doubtless will be ignored because of its source:

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    No. And never shall.
    In saecula saeculorum. Amen!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 470
    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    Jeremy Hunt.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083

    Peter Kellner makes a good case for not proven but it's not disproved.

    What seems undeniable is the massive increase in turnout that the BES found in the 25-40 age group and its sharp swing to Labour. A millennialquake, perhaps.

    Considering Corbyn’s popularity with snowflakes, I think avalanche works well.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I have always been very sceptical of the whole youthquake thing -although there is some logic in the expectation that if you bribe students with the abolition of tuition fees, lie about "doing something" for existing debt, and wear a Lenin cap when visiting university constituencies, you are going to get more undergraduates voting for you.

    This is probably the last posting on topic. The Brexit obsessives will now hijack the thread.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 30
    Chilling;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42875216

    Was he a PB'er?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364
    Searching for a simple solution Youthquake has appeal as an idea, but Kellner seems to have a point in the seeking to dismiss it as an idea as too simple. In short, I have no idea anymore.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    Jeremy Hunt.
    Gavin Williamson too.

    Though he said he was always a Leaver just that he wanted to be loyal to Dave.

    Who can blame him, Dave inspires loyalty from those around him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126
    Pong said:
    We haven't heard from IOS in a while.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    Pong said:
    What a slur. The only death threats that have been made on here were towards May.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,864

    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    Jeremy Hunt.
    Gavin Williamson too.

    Though he said he was always a Leaver just that he wanted to be loyal to Dave.

    Who can blame him, Dave inspires loyalty from those around him.
    I've just heard Gavin Williamson speaking for the first time. He has a very light voice and sounds a bit prissy. He could be a convincing drag artist. I can't see him as a PM.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/911301/gavin-williamson-pressure-affair-workplace-office-romance-defence-secretary

  • Barnesian said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    Jeremy Hunt.
    Gavin Williamson too.

    Though he said he was always a Leaver just that he wanted to be loyal to Dave.

    Who can blame him, Dave inspires loyalty from those around him.
    I've just heard Gavin Williamson speaking for the first time. He has a very light voice and sounds a bit prissy. He could be a convincing drag artist. I can't see him as a PM.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/911301/gavin-williamson-pressure-affair-workplace-office-romance-defence-secretary

    I said a while back his speech would hold him back, same with Rachel Reeves.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    No and it is just getting more entrenched. Many comments and postings are becoming entirely predictable.

    I am now at the point that whatever happens, happens
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,041
    kle4 said:

    Searching for a simple solution Youthquake has appeal as an idea, but Kellner seems to have a point in the seeking to dismiss it as an idea as too simple. In short, I have no idea anymore.

    Me neither. However, the extra voters came from somewhere.
    O/T JRM allowing the possibility he may be vote with opposition over transition deal on C4 News.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,968
    I think the increase in the under 40s coming out for Labour,is that these are families with young children so schools are their no 1 concern.On the school cuts,the NUT,now the NEU after the amalgamation with ATL,produced one of their famous whizzo calculators so that every parent/grandparent could see just how many teachers each school would lose under Tory spending plans.It worked very well and the issue of school cuts remains an untreated open wound for the Tory party with this group of voters.When will TMay get a grip and address the school cuts question?
  • I think the increase in the under 40s coming out for Labour,is that these are families with young children so schools are their no 1 concern.On the school cuts,the NUT,now the NEU after the amalgamation with ATL,produced one of their famous whizzo calculators so that every parent/grandparent could see just how many teachers each school would lose under Tory spending plans.It worked very well and the issue of school cuts remains an untreated open wound for the Tory party with this group of voters.When will TMay get a grip and address the school cuts question?

    Well the PIP review will cost an additional 4.7 billion virtually all Corbyn and Boris are promising the NHS.

    I have no idea where the extra taxes for all the promises are coming from but it will not be a ''little more' and only the wealthy few. If Corbyn gets his way it will be a lot more for the many AND the few
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650
    edited January 30
    Pong said:
    Or a Labour MP?

    Remember Jess "I'm willing to knife Corbyn in the front" Phillips MP.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    edited January 30

    Good advice from George Osborne which doubtless will be ignored because of its source:

    I am still waiting for the emergency budget, the huge additional cuts to disabled benefits, the 18 per cent fall in house prices by 2018 and other things he forecast would happen almost immediately if we voted for Brexit? Those Treasury forecasts - always so accurate!
  • See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126
    brendan16 said:

    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.

    I expect that £1,000 is more in the form of ready cash than actual savings.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Adonis & Lamont.

    Singly, each is unbearable. Why would anyone want the double helping?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126

    I think the increase in the under 40s coming out for Labour,is that these are families with young children so schools are their no 1 concern.On the school cuts,the NUT,now the NEU after the amalgamation with ATL,produced one of their famous whizzo calculators so that every parent/grandparent could see just how many teachers each school would lose under Tory spending plans.It worked very well and the issue of school cuts remains an untreated open wound for the Tory party with this group of voters.When will TMay get a grip and address the school cuts question?

    Well the PIP review will cost an additional 4.7 billion virtually all Corbyn and Boris are promising the NHS.

    I have no idea where the extra taxes for all the promises are coming from but it will not be a ''little more' and only the wealthy few. If Corbyn gets his way it will be a lot more for the many AND the few
    In the near term, money can be found, as public borrowing is heading below 2% of GDP. Longer term pressures are more challenging.
  • See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Adonis & Lamont.

    Singly, each is unbearable. Why would anyone want the double helping?
    And that is the point - each view is cancelling out the other as remotes across the country switch to classic fm or similar for peace of mind
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,364
    Blimey, Brexit really does get everywhere - a youtube preroll ad just now for ancestry.com was all about it. Though i can at least see the relevance.
  • Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220

    Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
    And in a years time the Rejoin Campaign commences...
  • Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
    Maybe that is a good idea for you when considering Mahrez transfer request today following 50 million bid from City
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
    And in a years time the Rejoin Campaign commences...
    You know - I believe that is the way remain should play it but maybe post Dec 2020
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220

    Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
    Maybe that is a good idea for you when considering Mahrez transfer request today following 50 million bid from City
    I am happy to sell, we have had our money's worth, but we want more than that!

    Our owners are not short of money and always reluctant to sell. £80 million may start to tempt.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    I would recommend suspended animation for a year if you are sick of Brexit. There is no avoiding it, and everything will be viewed through that prism.
    Sure you are right but an attitude of 'que sera sera' is quite beneficial
    Maybe that is a good idea for you when considering Mahrez transfer request today following 50 million bid from City
    I am happy to sell, we have had our money's worth, but we want more than that!

    Our owners are not short of money and always reluctant to sell. £80 million may start to tempt.

    I agree on today's values City are chancing their arm
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
  • Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    edited January 30
    brendan16 said:

    Good advice from George Osborne which doubtless will be ignored because of its source:

    I am still waiting for the emergency budget, the huge additional cuts to disabled benefits, the 18 per cent fall in house prices by 2018 and other things he forecast would happen almost immediately if we voted for Brexit? Those Treasury forecasts - always so accurate!
    House prices in central London are down by something like that much.

    Though why you felt the need to indulge in some entirely irrelevant ad hominem is beyond me. I can only assume that you agree with his advice but can’t bring yourself to say so.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
  • Assume PMQ's tomorrow will be the second team with TM in China

    But popcorn time at select committee on the BBC

    The reports today of the BBC capping newsreaders at £320,000 received a torrent of anger from the public at their astonishing salaries.

    Also why has Tony Hall not resigned over the pay controversy
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,506
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
    Mene mene tekel upharsin, as a well known Leaver reminded us this week.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,864
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
    ..and then reversed.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
    What silence - it is turning the public off
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
    What silence - it is turning the public off
    Nah. Its turning you off. Different.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Assume PMQ's tomorrow will be the second team with TM in China

    But popcorn time at select committee on the BBC

    The reports today of the BBC capping newsreaders at £320,000 received a torrent of anger from the public at their astonishing salaries.

    Also why has Tony Hall not resigned over the pay controversy

    Great spinning from the Beeb to make the story about “gender pay gap” rather than the astonishingly high levels of pay from licence fee payers’ money, especially for those in radio and news.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    "I really appreciate the rigour of the government's Brexit analysis. The way it shared the facts and opened the debate. By inviting contributions from across the country it managed to heal the wounds of the referendum and come up with a better settlement fit for all."

    Stuff no-one will ever say #374
  • Sandpit said:

    Assume PMQ's tomorrow will be the second team with TM in China

    But popcorn time at select committee on the BBC

    The reports today of the BBC capping newsreaders at £320,000 received a torrent of anger from the public at their astonishing salaries.

    Also why has Tony Hall not resigned over the pay controversy

    Great spinning from the Beeb to make the story about “gender pay gap” rather than the astonishingly high levels of pay from licence fee payers’ money, especially for those in radio and news.
    It was embarrassing to hear Nicky Campbell talking about BBC salaries on 5 live this morning next to Rachel Burden, him on £450,000 - Rachel unknown but much much better than he is
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Sky have Adonis and Lamont arguing round and round in circles going nowhere.

    Maybe the media should decide to give us all a holiday from Bexit for a few weeks as nothing is going to change

    Why? Things are only just warming up.
    No one is winning their arguments
    Better argument than silence and dumb acceptance. Brexit needs to be tested.
    What silence - it is turning the public off
    Nah. Its turning you off. Different.
    And the public
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,823
    Yep, Kelner is on the money. It is ridiculous making such sweeping conclusions based on very small polling subsamples.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420

    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    No and it is just getting more entrenched. Many comments and postings are becoming entirely predictable.

    I am now at the point that whatever happens, happens
    Then you have achieved enlightenment, my son
  • Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s hope this thread is more enlightening than the last one. Has anybody actually changed their mind on Brexit?

    No and it is just getting more entrenched. Many comments and postings are becoming entirely predictable.

    I am now at the point that whatever happens, happens
    Then you have achieved enlightenment, my son
    At 74 maybe
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.

    I expect that £1,000 is more in the form of ready cash than actual savings.
    Doubt it. I virtually never have more than £200 + some dollars and euros in ready cash.
  • eekeek Posts: 1,963
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.

    I expect that £1,000 is more in the form of ready cash than actual savings.
    Doubt it. I virtually never have more than £200 + some dollars and euros in ready cash.
    +1. Most people don't have enough savings to last more than a month without a pay cheque...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420

    brendan16 said:

    Good advice from George Osborne which doubtless will be ignored because of its source:

    I am still waiting for the emergency budget, the huge additional cuts to disabled benefits, the 18 per cent fall in house prices by 2018 and other things he forecast would happen almost immediately if we voted for Brexit? Those Treasury forecasts - always so accurate!
    House prices in central London are down by something like that much.

    Though why you felt the need to indulge in some entirely irrelevant ad hominem is beyond me. I can only assume that you agree with his advice but can’t bring yourself to say so.
    Not since Brexit - they were down at least 10-12% beforehand.

    (although we won't lend more than 50% of the value of a super prime London property any more)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    @PClipp FPT

    The philanthropist who established and endowed the University of Westminster funded it with the money that he (and his father) had made as Chairman of the East India Company
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.

    I expect that £1,000 is more in the form of ready cash than actual savings.
    Doubt it. I virtually never have more than £200 + some dollars and euros in ready cash.
    Tenner for me.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Surely the issue is not so much if younger voters turned out but why and was there a regional differential. Is it a London and university town phenomenon or is it an issue nationally.

    There was a survey last week stating over 40 per cent of workers in the UK had less than £1000 in savings. I expect that figure is far higher amongst younger workers. How on earth can you buy a home when your savings are less than £1k - it wouldn't even cover your solicitors fees let alone a deposit.

    Is this youth enthusiasm for Corbyn down to Brexit - as we are told - or is it more likely to be a combination of low or stagnating wages, facing a lifetime of renting, few secure career prospects, high levels of debt, student tuition fees, austerity and a general feeling of resentment at a system and a party (the Tories) which you consider has literally destroyed your future.

    I expect that £1,000 is more in the form of ready cash than actual savings.
    Doubt it. I virtually never have more than £200 + some dollars and euros in ready cash.
    Tenner for me.
    £200 is the peak amount after I've been to the ATM...
  • He's just a pound shop Professor Sir Paul Nuttall KCVO, DSO, MBE, GCMG

  • That will be popular with many
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,570
    With all the discussions about Millenials and their finances:

    ' CAN millennials really afford a deposit just by ditching the mochachinos and avocado toast? We asked one to keep a spending diary, but it wasn’t one who lives in London and works in the media so the entire thing was a waste of time.

    Still, since we did it, here’s the spending diary of 26-year-old Tom Logan who lives in Preston and works as a mechanic and is therefore representative of absolutely nobody.

    DAY 1
    I have a couple of slices of toast and margarine then walk to work. Sorry, I’m already doing this wrong. I should have bought breakfast and got the tube and then bought a coffee. Sorry.

    I packed sandwiches for lunch too, because there isn’t anywhere you can buy them near the garage. I know, I’m completely fucking this up.

    I should have a gym membership or something, but I just keep fit by walking to work.

    Total spend: negligible '

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/the-spending-diary-of-a-millennial-who-doesnt-live-in-london-and-therefore-doesnt-matter-20180129143358

    And the Guardian article its based upon:

    ' DAY 1
    Bus then tube to work £3.90
    Coffee from new cafe £2.80
    Lunch from work canteen £4.50
    Downpayment on a gym membership £70
    Tube home £2.70
    Dinner out £15
    Snack on the way home £2.20
    Total £101.10

    I have managed to avoid including the Taylor Swift ticket, but this is not an auspicious start, what with the list including the most expensive flat white within half a mile of the office and two out of three meals eaten out.

    An old friend is staying with me and we want to try the Chinese restaurant that was booked up on his last visit. Then, on the way home, we stop at the local Turkish supermarket and the Wafe Up biscuits my flatmate and I like are four for £1.10 and, well, here we are.

    I may live to regret the Gymbox membership, but I have learned that scrimping on a gym means I do not go. If I experience a flutter of alarm every time the direct debit goes through, I will make the effort to bring down the cost per visit. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/29/can-you-really-save-for-a-deposit-by-ditching-coffee-and-avocado-toast-i-tried-to-find-out
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,478

    That will be popular with many
    Watch they don't hoist them upside down.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305



    The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.

    The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.

    They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    edited January 30
    He's posturing for leadership votes.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    Jonathan said:

    He's posturing for leadership votes.
    Why were they there in the first place?
  • Jonathan said:

    He's posturing for leadership votes.
    Tell me a politician who doesnt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,452

    He's just a pound shop Professor Sir Paul Nuttall KCVO, DSO, MBE, GCMG

    The certificate from St. Andrew's is rather sweet, though.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,220
    edited January 30
    Charles said:

    @PClipp FPT

    The philanthropist who established and endowed the University of Westminster funded it with the money that he (and his father) had made as Chairman of the East India Company

    Not sure Indians would see the EIC plunder being spent in Westminster as a plus.

    Interesting new book out on the subject recently, out on kindle this Friday.


    http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/inglorious-empire/


    "Those Brits who speak confidently about how Britain’s “historical and cultural ties” to India will make it easy to strike a great new trade deal should read Mr Tharoor’s book. It would help them to see the world through the eyes of the … countries once colonised or defeated by Britain.’ — Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,570

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    You mean Bloomberg ?

    Still if its real world manufacturing reports you want then you're in luck - we get the Manufacturing PMI data on Thursday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    How dare other countries compete for business!

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465

    Jonathan said:

    He's posturing for leadership votes.
    Tell me a politician who doesnt
    Has there ever been a politician who’s been so shameless about it?

    You can imagine him planning a ‘grid’ with tabloid pleasing stories. “Williamson saves cat stuck up tree”, “Williamson uncovers spy ring in Ministry of Defence”, “Williamson sends troops to Africa to protect elephants from poachers.”
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,426

    With all the discussions about Millenials and their finances:

    ' CAN millennials really afford a deposit just by ditching the mochachinos and avocado toast? We asked one to keep a spending diary, but it wasn’t one who lives in London and works in the media so the entire thing was a waste of time.

    Still, since we did it, here’s the spending diary of 26-year-old Tom Logan who lives in Preston and works as a mechanic and is therefore representative of absolutely nobody.

    DAY 1
    I have a couple of slices of toast and margarine then walk to work. Sorry, I’m already doing this wrong. I should have bought breakfast and got the tube and then bought a coffee. Sorry.

    I packed sandwiches for lunch too, because there isn’t anywhere you can buy them near the garage. I know, I’m completely fucking this up.

    I should have a gym membership or something, but I just keep fit by walking to work.

    Total spend: negligible '

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/the-spending-diary-of-a-millennial-who-doesnt-live-in-london-and-therefore-doesnt-matter-20180129143358

    And the Guardian article its based upon:

    ' DAY 1
    Bus then tube to work £3.90
    Coffee from new cafe £2.80
    Lunch from work canteen £4.50
    Downpayment on a gym membership £70
    Tube home £2.70
    Dinner out £15
    Snack on the way home £2.20
    Total £101.10

    I have managed to avoid including the Taylor Swift ticket, but this is not an auspicious start, what with the list including the most expensive flat white within half a mile of the office and two out of three meals eaten out.

    An old friend is staying with me and we want to try the Chinese restaurant that was booked up on his last visit. Then, on the way home, we stop at the local Turkish supermarket and the Wafe Up biscuits my flatmate and I like are four for £1.10 and, well, here we are.

    I may live to regret the Gymbox membership, but I have learned that scrimping on a gym means I do not go. If I experience a flutter of alarm every time the direct debit goes through, I will make the effort to bring down the cost per visit. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/29/can-you-really-save-for-a-deposit-by-ditching-coffee-and-avocado-toast-i-tried-to-find-out

    Much better is her overall position, that she saves £100/month - actually greater (can you believe it) than most of the country.

    Incidentally I agree with Martin: "Scanning my spending diary, he says it would be “very possible” for me to save from £400 to as much as £700 of my disposable income each month by cutting back on coffees, lunches out, rounds at the pub and holidays." (she said £1,000 above - must be the definition of "disposable".

    I save approximately £900 of my disposable income of £1,300 each months but accept I'm the minority.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    edited January 30
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    @PClipp FPT

    The philanthropist who established and endowed the University of Westminster funded it with the money that he (and his father) had made as Chairman of the East India Company

    Not sure Indians would see the EIC plunder being spent in Westminster as a plus.

    Interesting new book out on the subject recently, out on kindle this Friday.


    http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/inglorious-empire/


    "Those Brits who speak confidently about how Britain’s “historical and cultural ties” to India will make it easy to strike a great new trade deal should read Mr Tharoor’s book. It would help them to see the world through the eyes of the … countries once colonised or defeated by Britain.’ — Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
    You might appreciate that his Dad spent it on a large chunk of Leicestershire...which the lad then sold to set up a University...

    (I know his great-great-great grandson, who still whines about it occasionally)
  • Jonathan said:

    He's posturing for leadership votes.
    Tell me a politician who doesnt
    Has there ever been a politician who’s been so shameless about it?

    You can imagine him planning a ‘grid’ with tabloid pleasing stories. “Williamson saves cat stuck up tree”, “Williamson uncovers spy ring in Ministry of Defence”, “Williamson sends troops to Africa to protect elephants from poachers.”
    He seems to be upsetting you - if it helps I will not vote for him and I have a vote
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,649




    The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.

    The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.

    They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/

    Not particularly a Remainer issue. The downbeat report and the government's messy handling of the issue will have an effect on the concerned but positive. That's why the government are handling this so badly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,823




    The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.

    The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.

    They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/

    People will care, as and when it happens. Meanwhile forecasts of impending doom carry little weight. Don't underestimate, however, the strength of the backlash if even half of Project Fear turns out to be grounded in what comes to pass.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,041

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    Found myself transfixed recently on landing in Melbourne by the wings of the Airbus. (It was cloudy, and I could see nowt else out the window). A remarkable number of moving parts, subject to phenomenal stresses every day.
    An outstanding piece of British workmanship.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,570

    With all the discussions about Millenials and their finances:

    ' CAN millennials really afford a deposit just by ditching the mochachinos and avocado toast? We asked one to keep a spending diary, but it wasn’t one who lives in London and works in the media so the entire thing was a waste of time.

    Still, since we did it, here’s the spending diary of 26-year-old Tom Logan who lives in Preston and works as a mechanic and is therefore representative of absolutely nobody.

    DAY 1
    I have a couple of slices of toast and margarine then walk to work. Sorry, I’m already doing this wrong. I should have bought breakfast and got the tube and then bought a coffee. Sorry.

    I packed sandwiches for lunch too, because there isn’t anywhere you can buy them near the garage. I know, I’m completely fucking this up.

    I should have a gym membership or something, but I just keep fit by walking to work.

    Total spend: negligible '

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/the-spending-diary-of-a-millennial-who-doesnt-live-in-london-and-therefore-doesnt-matter-20180129143358

    And the Guardian article its based upon:

    ' DAY 1
    Bus then tube to work £3.90
    Coffee from new cafe £2.80
    Lunch from work canteen £4.50
    Downpayment on a gym membership £70
    Tube home £2.70
    Dinner out £15
    Snack on the way home £2.20
    Total £101.10

    I have managed to avoid including the Taylor Swift ticket, but this is not an auspicious start, what with the list including the most expensive flat white within half a mile of the office and two out of three meals eaten out.

    An old friend is staying with me and we want to try the Chinese restaurant that was booked up on his last visit. Then, on the way home, we stop at the local Turkish supermarket and the Wafe Up biscuits my flatmate and I like are four for £1.10 and, well, here we are.

    I may live to regret the Gymbox membership, but I have learned that scrimping on a gym means I do not go. If I experience a flutter of alarm every time the direct debit goes through, I will make the effort to bring down the cost per visit. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/29/can-you-really-save-for-a-deposit-by-ditching-coffee-and-avocado-toast-i-tried-to-find-out

    Much better is her overall position, that she saves £100/month - actually greater (can you believe it) than most of the country.

    Incidentally I agree with Martin: "Scanning my spending diary, he says it would be “very possible” for me to save from £400 to as much as £700 of my disposable income each month by cutting back on coffees, lunches out, rounds at the pub and holidays." (she said £1,000 above - must be the definition of "disposable".

    I save approximately £900 of my disposable income of £1,300 each months but accept I'm the minority.

    Well done.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    Found myself transfixed recently on landing in Melbourne by the wings of the Airbus. (It was cloudy, and I could see nowt else out the window). A remarkable number of moving parts, subject to phenomenal stresses every day.
    An outstanding piece of British workmanship.
    And my son in law who is a senior engineer at Airbus has just completed 40 years service
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,758
    edited January 30

    He's just a pound shop Professor Sir Paul Nuttall KCVO, DSO, MBE, GCMG

    twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/958422907511820289

    If you are going to lie on your CV as least make it so that it can't be debunked with one google search !!! But then perhaps those that need to do this are a bit errrrh thick.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    How dare other countries compete for business!
    Not entirely clear how China or Korea get round the Brexit effect, either......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,465

    Jonathan said:

    He's posturing for leadership votes.
    Tell me a politician who doesnt
    Has there ever been a politician who’s been so shameless about it?

    You can imagine him planning a ‘grid’ with tabloid pleasing stories. “Williamson saves cat stuck up tree”, “Williamson uncovers spy ring in Ministry of Defence”, “Williamson sends troops to Africa to protect elephants from poachers.”
    He seems to be upsetting you - if it helps I will not vote for him and I have a vote
    Good man! :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure many on here want it, but it's good to get a report from the real world.
    Found myself transfixed recently on landing in Melbourne by the wings of the Airbus. (It was cloudy, and I could see nowt else out the window). A remarkable number of moving parts, subject to phenomenal stresses every day.
    An outstanding piece of British workmanship.
    Depending on the model there's a good chance the engines were British too. Of an aircraft, roughly half the value is in the engines. Of the rest, roughly half the value in the wings.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    Would be interesting to see the age splits on this:

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,126
    IanB2 said:




    The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.

    The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.

    They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/

    People will care, as and when it happens. Meanwhile forecasts of impending doom carry little weight. Don't underestimate, however, the strength of the backlash if even half of Project Fear turns out to be grounded in what comes to pass.
    If the economy crashes over the next couple of years, then I would expect public opinion to turn against Brexit. If it doesn't, public opinion won't turn.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    Shift in attitude to Immigration - but still a big gap:

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 757
    edited January 30

    With all the discussions about Millenials and their finances:

    ' CAN millennials really afford a deposit just by ditching the mochachinos and avocado toast? We asked one to keep a spending diary, but it wasn’t one who lives in London and works in the media so the entire thing was a waste of time.

    Still, since we did it, here’s the spending diary of 26-year-old Tom Logan who lives in Preston and works as a mechanic and is therefore representative of absolutely nobody.

    DAY 1
    I have a couple of slices of toast and margarine then walk to work. Sorry, I’m already doing this wrong. I should have bought breakfast and got the tube and then bought a coffee. Sorry.

    I packed sandwiches for lunch too, because there isn’t anywhere you can buy them near the garage. I know, I’m completely fucking this up.

    I should have a gym membership or something, but I just keep fit by walking to work.

    Total spend: negligible '

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/the-spending-diary-of-a-millennial-who-doesnt-live-in-london-and-therefore-doesnt-matter-20180129143358

    And the Guardian article its based upon:

    ' DAY 1
    Bus then tube to work £3.90
    Coffee from new cafe £2.80
    Lunch from work canteen £4.50
    Downpayment on a gym membership £70
    Tube home £2.70
    Dinner out £15
    Snack on the way home £2.20
    Total £101.10

    I have managed to avoid including the Taylor Swift ticket, but this is not an auspicious start, what with the list including the most expensive flat white within half a mile of the office and two out of three meals eaten out.

    An old friend is staying with me and we want to try the Chinese restaurant that was booked up on his last visit. Then, on the way home, we stop at the local Turkish supermarket and the Wafe Up biscuits my flatmate and I like are four for £1.10 and, well, here we are.

    I may live to regret the Gymbox membership, but I have learned that scrimping on a gym means I do not go. If I experience a flutter of alarm every time the direct debit goes through, I will make the effort to bring down the cost per visit. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/29/can-you-really-save-for-a-deposit-by-ditching-coffee-and-avocado-toast-i-tried-to-find-out

    She can only borrow £140k on her £35k salary so would need a deposit of £210k to buy that £350k one bed flat.

    Assuming she spends £3 a day on coffee or £1100 a year she should have no bother saving up enough for her deposit in about 200 years if she stopped buying coffees each day.

    Still cutting avocado toast out might reduce the wait to 150 years.

    Just shows how silly these articles are in the context of London prices - and £350k would barely get you a studio in most of zone 2 these days not a one bed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:




    The Remainer frenzy over this new dossier suggests that they have learned nothing from their referendum defeat and the failure of Project Fear. Deluging the public with statistics from official bodies didn't work in 2016. But now, with the Brexit process underway, they desperately latch onto any further figures they can find.

    The latest batch has been received by them as if manna from heaven. In their delirium, they risk forgetting that voters at large haven't been waiting with bated breath to see what "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" would say before deciding how to feel about Brexit.

    They have already been presented with big scary numbers, and made their decision at the ballot box. Many knew there could be a cost, but went ahead and backed Leave anyway. Until Remainers work out how to appeal to these voters, they will remain on the sidelines.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/30/project-fear-flopped-yet-remainers-still-obsessed-killing-brexit/

    People will care, as and when it happens. Meanwhile forecasts of impending doom carry little weight. Don't underestimate, however, the strength of the backlash if even half of Project Fear turns out to be grounded in what comes to pass.
    If the economy crashes over the next couple of years, then I would expect public opinion to turn against Brexit. If it doesn't, public opinion won't turn.
    I'm not sure there will be a backlash. Remainers will complain whatever the outcome, Leavers will blame the EU, the government or something else. Given the vote was decided on values, not many people are going to turn round and say I was wrong
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,977
    I see the Daily Osborne is calling for EFTA in its editorial today. Subtly (well, quite substantially) different from BINO.

    I find that rather interesting.
This discussion has been closed.