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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will

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  • I'm afraid I disagree with Mike. May will make it through the next few weeks and won't see it through to 2022. His comment in his header:

    "The broad view within the parliamentary party has been in that Theresa May would stand down in 2019"

    is right - but it may be that she has to be pushed into standing down. Her determination to fight on doesn't change that.

    Mike's correct that for her and her supporters, there can always be found reasons for not acting now (or for a preferred but undefined 'later'), but some reasons are better than others. The intensity of the Brexit negotiations is a prime reason for not acting now but that reason will end in the Spring of next year. Yes, there'll still be the final exit arrangement to sort out but a few months' breathing space then might actually be a good thing.

    The big difference between now and, say, Thatcher or Major's time, is that then there was one scheduled leadership election a year which both focussed attention on that time but also meant that the scope to act at any other given time was very limited. Now, a leadership election can be triggered at any point, which while the argument of 'now or never' no longer applies (unlike in 1990 when if Heseltine hadn't acted after Howe's resignation, Thatcher would undoubtedly have led the Tories into 1992), it also means that the parliamentary party can act on a trigger of any given moment.

    I wouldn't yet discount a delegation of grey-suited men going to No 10 next year to advise the PM to take the graceful way out.

    I agree. Even if she survives until March, she's far from sure of surviving to 2022.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Incidentally, Chapter 47 of Machiavelli's Discourses on Livy is very relevant to this topic.

    It's about generals and particulars, with the people, at one time, being very against the senate. So, a chap locked the (knowing) senate up in a building, and offered to kill them one by one, once a replacement for every senator had been selected. The plebs put up one name, but that prompted mockery, and another, and likewise. All agreed the senate were horrid but the replacements got no support whatsoever, and, in the end, they agreed to let the senate resume its functions, having given the senators quite the fright.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!

    ..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.

    I bloody love this taking back control.
    Whether or not it'd be a good idea in principle to copy the EU data protection legislation (yes, it would), the fact that the UK is still an EU member is rather pertinent in why the bill's going through.
    I cannot see any regulatory authority changing a comma of EU-wide legislation or regulation either now, in 2020, or for any time in future or for future EU rules & regs. In so doing I imagine they will wish to prove to the EU that they are good partners and hope for an invite to the table for the next working group.
  • Yes, it's been clear from the outset that Theresa wasn't going anywhere. GE 2017 is regarded as a kind of freakish anomaly, and it's just a case of counting the days until the electorate is given the chance to redeem itself and return Theresa will the thumping mandate that she's always deserved. As for the Tories, they should start showing some gratitude.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.
    Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?
    Page 109 of the balance sheet:

    http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf

    2.7 billion of "intangible assets".

    Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
    The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    Mortimer said:
    I'm a constituent of Soames and my view of him is quite torn down the middle. On the one hand he's a colourful character and I like his one nation politics. On the other, he's a bloody awful constituency MP who is never seen in his constituency for years on end (and it's only about 30 miles from Westminster). His whole constituency association is incredibly lazy and invisible, yet they somehow hold 90% plus of the council wards in the seat (Mid Sussex).

    Given the years of Tory inactivity here, this is the kind of seat where the Lib Dems might fancy their chances in a by-election. The seat voted Remain and the Lib Dems ran the Tories quite close prior to 2010.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited January 2018
    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!

    ..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.

    I bloody love this taking back control.
    Whether or not it'd be a good idea in principle to copy the EU data protection legislation (yes, it would), the fact that the UK is still an EU member is rather pertinent in why the bill's going through.
    I cannot see any regulatory authority changing a comma of EU-wide legislation or regulation either now, in 2020, or for any time in future or for future EU rules & regs. In so doing I imagine they will wish to prove to the EU that they are good partners and hope for an invite to the table for the next working group.
    As you said, Mr T. that's called 'taking back control'!
  • Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    On topic, what else was Theresa May going to say ? No politician could or would say anything else - Margaret Thatcher wasn't a quitter on the Tuesday evening but had gone by Thursday morning. David Cameron wasn't going to quit if the EU Referendum was lost but then quit.

    As to whether May should go that's for the Conservative Party to decide - it's got bugger all to do with the rest of us who just have to live with the consequences. As an outsider May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is clearly shown to be a loser and b) someone else is clearly shown to be a winner.

    It's worth repeating - what did for Thatcher weren't the polls showing the Conservatives 10 points behind Labour with her as leader - they'd been in worse positions - but the polls showing the Conservative and Labour parties level under Heseltine and later Major.

    The election became about her and the realisation among MPs in marginal seats they would lose with her and win without her and when it comes down to it self-preservation will trump loyalty any day and every day.

    Which is why there is a risk point this May.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited January 2018

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
  • I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.

    https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.

    ...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.
  • Is this deliberate? Trying to draw out a challenge?

    "Oh, there is talk of a leadership challenge and I'm about to go to the other side of the road? Now would be a good time to make clear I'm here for the long haul, then!"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    IanB2 said:


    Which is why there is a risk point this May.

    There was in 1990 but the then Conservative Party Chairman Kenneth Baker used an adroit piece of spin to show how well the Conservatives had done based on some early and decent results in London (Brent went from Labour to NOC and the Conservatives gained Hillingdon) which masked some more disappointing results elsewhere.

    The Conservatives also benefitted from a poor LD result - in fact, the Conservatives lost 225 seats, the LDs 75 and Labour gained 300,

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.
    Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?
    Page 109 of the balance sheet:

    http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf

    2.7 billion of "intangible assets".

    Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
    The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~
    Hmm, pleased I’m not one of their shareholders. When the company has so many forward contracts for income and expenditure - stretching in some cases many decades into the future - it’s not too difficult for a good team of accountants come up with almost any numbers they fancy for the annual report with subtle alterations of their model.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited January 2018
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:


    Which is why there is a risk point this May.

    There was in 1990 but the then Conservative Party Chairman Kenneth Baker used an adroit piece of spin to show how well the Conservatives had done based on some early and decent results in London (Brent went from Labour to NOC and the Conservatives gained Hillingdon) which masked some more disappointing results elsewhere.

    The Conservatives also benefitted from a poor LD result - in fact, the Conservatives lost 225 seats, the LDs 75 and Labour gained 300,

    Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.

    I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited January 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.
    Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?
    Page 109 of the balance sheet:

    http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf

    2.7 billion of "intangible assets".

    Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
    The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~
    Hmm, pleased I’m not one of their shareholders. When the company has so many forward contracts for income and expenditure - stretching in some cases many decades into the future - it’s not too difficult for a good team of accountants come up with almost any numbers they fancy for the annual report with subtle alterations of their model.
    I deal with multi-year contracts in my day job. A common method, and the one we used (It is used alot in construction I understand) is to use the cost of the contract so far multiplied by the sales/total expected cost ratio.
    However our accounts don't have 5+* the net total company equity in "intangibles" atop the balance sheet :)
  • Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.

    ...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.
    I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Dawning, sounds like you want the Patrick Party ;)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Another great blog by Michael Smithson – with the slight exception of this part: "There was what in hindsight was her disastrous decision not to participate in a TV debate with Jeremy Corbyn allowing Amber Rudd to stand in for her."

    No hindsight was necessary – it was clearly a disastrous decision at the time.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house  https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ

    Has Corbyn actually done this?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nigelb said:

    It's a load of hot air.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.
    Doubtful. When in the US it isn't hard to spot that the average waistline is somewhat narrower in Chicago or New York City than in Alabama or West Virginia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house  https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ

    Has Corbyn actually done this?

    Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086

    Bloody NIMBY's.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217

    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HHemmelig said:

    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.
    Doubtful. When in the US it isn't hard to spot that the average waistline is somewhat narrower in Chicago or New York City than in Alabama or West Virginia.
    Actually very true. The survey seems to be complete garbage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    HHemmelig said:

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
    You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.

    ...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.
    I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.
    I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    remember PODWAS?

    How did that work out for Labour?
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house  https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ

    Has Corbyn actually done this?

    Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086

    Bloody NIMBY's.
    To be fair it seems like a much wider groundswell than just Momentum was responsible for canning it. For example the Tory columnist Peter Oborne was scathing about the development on Question Time last week.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Anazina said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217

    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.
    Another one who responds to data with ad hom......how unoriginal......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers
    Citation required.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Anazina said:

    Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.

    ...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.
    I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.
    I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.
    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/958619972707680256
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Anazina said:



    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.

    UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    HHemmelig said:

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
    You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.
    I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.
  • I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.

    https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768

    I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    HHemmelig said:

    Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house  https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ

    Has Corbyn actually done this?

    Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086

    Bloody NIMBY's.
    To be fair it seems like a much wider groundswell than just Momentum was responsible for canning it. For example the Tory columnist Peter Oborne was scathing about the development on Question Time last week.
    As usual misreported by MSM and those who wanted to force it through.

    Nice to see PB Tories like Marquee still believe in Carillion style deals

    Wonder how many of the 6500 would be "affordable£ let alone affordable.
  • Anazina said:

    Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.

    ...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.
    I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.
    I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.
    Ruth's done a marvellous job getting the bigots and racists on board in Scotland, she may be able to pull off a similar trick with the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists down south.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers
    Citation required.
    Let me google that for you.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217

    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.
    Another one who responds to data with ad hom......how unoriginal......
    I'm still chortling from the other day when you bridled at my calling you 'names' then went on to brand europhiles 'remaniacs' in your very next post. :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038


    After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.
    Trump is considering making US 5G network a public build, partly for security reasons apparently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.
    What governmental organisation ever accepts computers from a foreign power, especially China or Russia? Sadly not too difficult to have predicted that outcome.
  • remember PODWAS?

    How did that work out for Labour?
    Yes. It never gained any traction. Nevertheless, the Tories were in a blind panic at the time, convinced, albeit momentarily, that they'd bought a dud. Thankfully Dave's supreme political skills soon became obvious for all to see and nerves were settled.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.

    https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768

    I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.
    Indeed I doubt there is much the way of open-mindedness from this chap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers
    Citation required.
    Let me google that for you.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
    Perhaps you should read it?

    It would be naive to think that body-weight determines voting preferences.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
    You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.
    I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.
    I would hesitate to generalise from the examples of May & Heath, two rather unusual individuals.

    Emmanuel Macron has no children (though I suppose he acquired 3 step children from the wreckage of Brigitte's earlier marriage). Macron seems to have no difficulty empathising (whether it is largely simulated, or not is another matter).

    Like you, I have some sympathy for 'Calamity May', though probably not to the extent of actually voting for her.

    One of my relatives is (unwillingly) childless, and it has affected her deeply. I would not be too surprised if May's unwilling childlessness has had a substantial effect on her character.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:



    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.

    UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".
    You are mistaking UK politics as a whole with the obsequious Tory party fanatics regularly sighted on this forum.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
    You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.
    I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.
    She was half right. Her point about May was perhaps accurate, though not necessarily for the right reasons; her assertion that she herself was in touch is a good deal more debatable.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    rkrkrk said:
    Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.

    Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.

    Preferred the Students Union myself!
    We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers
    Citation required.
    Let me google that for you.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
    Perhaps you should read it?

    It would be naive to think that body-weight determines voting preferences.
    I wrote: We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers.

    That is true.

    It is you that should try reading.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Sandpit said:

    After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.
    What governmental organisation ever accepts computers from a foreign power, especially China or Russia? Sadly not too difficult to have predicted that outcome.
    Looks like a nice building to be honest. Might be a better procurement model than subbing out to Carillion or Capita to just get the chinese in then bug comb and replace the electrics :)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:



    The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.

    UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".
    You are mistaking UK politics as a whole with the obsequious Tory party fanatics regularly sighted on this forum.
    Really ? Look at University tuition fees -- all 3 parties opposed them in opposition. When they were in Government, all 3 enthusiastically adopted them.

    All three parties proposed taxes on the property wealth of the elderly (the Mansion Tax from the LibDems, The Death Tax from Labour, the Dementia Tax from the Tories). And all three parties attacked the principle of taxing property wealth of the elderly when the other lot proposed it.

    Truly, we're always at war with Eastasia.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Very interesting. Sounds like the current system is perfect for such an intertwined, co-dependent system as fishing national and international waters.

    What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2018
    HHemmelig said:

    Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.

    She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.

    And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
    Ruth will take whatever position on Brexit her audience wants to hear.

    Stand her next to some fishermen from Fraserburgh and you'll never hear a more fervent hard Brexiter than Ruth.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited January 2018
    There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    TOPPING said:

    What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?
    The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?

    Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.
    Thanks for that. Fascinating.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?

    Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term.

    The Democrats would win with that ticket I suspect, but whether it'll happen or not, who knows. Probably not :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.
    I remember seeing that decades ago (Tomorrow's World?) - great to see its surviving. Thanks for sharing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?

    Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term.

    The Democrats would win with that ticket I suspect, but whether it'll happen or not, who knows. Probably not :)
    Certainly would be a ticket that doesn't ignore the Rust Belt.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?
    The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........
    Yes, that is exactly what the article says. It's complicated! I don't see how us seceding from the CFP will help us in particular.

    Any fishermen out there? To spell it out?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Panda Bonds-haven't got a clue what they are but after TMay's visit to China,there'll be lots more of them so they must be a jolly good thing and Pandas are so cuddly.
    Could Panda Bonds be her saviour?Could Panda Bonds be the rabbit that she produces from the hat?Can everyone have one?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/958645168919363584
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer
  • Anazina said:

    I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.

    https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768

    I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.
    Indeed I doubt there is much the way of open-mindedness from this chap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A
    He was open to debate and asked for opposing reasons. So not so much closed minded as a strong debater.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Glenn, negative, that's a Miliware viral infection, that leads politicians to speak of British Dreams and wanting to cap/freeze/dictate commodity prices.

    If she starts promising free owls, then it's time for a replacement.
  • The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/958645168919363584

    May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.
  • Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer

    Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/958645168919363584

    May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.
    I noticed that too...bit more difficult for a chap - a red tie would do it - but he stuck with purple & blue - and of course the benches opposite him are awash with red ties.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer

    Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
    Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Vance, he could've worn a red cummerbund.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    A few of us have been saying on here for months that we expect her to lead the Tories into the next GE... Partly that's because, as her words and actions show, she is no quitter; but mainly because, terrible though she is, there is no one better who could take over.
  • The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/958645168919363584

    May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.
    I noticed that too...bit more difficult for a chap - a red tie would do it - but he stuck with purple & blue - and of course the benches opposite him are awash with red ties.....
    I have a red suit, shoes, and tie.

    Dave needs to start shopping at Selfridges&Co
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Miss Vance, he could've worn a red cummerbund.

    On Xi Jinping's State Visit Mrs May cut a dash in red then too:

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1214460
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    A few of us have been saying on here for months that we expect her to lead the Tories into the next GE... Partly that's because, as her words and actions show, she is no quitter; but mainly because, terrible though she is, there is no one better who could take over.

    Then they have lost imho.

    Can you imagine the campaign, the leaders debates etc etc?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HHemmelig said:

    Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.

    I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.

    London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.

    One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?

    In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:

    http://www.onlondon.co.uk/drama-in-labour-newham-mayoral-candidate-selection-as-robin-wales-urges-open-selection/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2018

    Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer

    Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
    Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
    That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.

    Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: The quote of the day is from Lord Bridges, former DEXEU minister:

    "The prime minister must make choices. Keeping every option open is no longer an option".

    @PickardJE: also I missed this corker from Bridges: "The years of Brexit are like dog years - each one feels like seven."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Lidington’s debut at PMQs.
  • A few weeks ago I tipped David Lidington as next PM and today he's doing PMQs. :lol:
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Sandpit said:

    Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer

    Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
    Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
    That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.

    Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
    It would be very good I think, for democracy, to see the end of this particularly powerful but unelected figure.
  • Who is this 'Justice Minister'? If he was a Remainer from the outset then he should never have been allowed a ministerial position. If he's a Leaver getting cold feet, then he should just bugger of to the Lib Dems with rest of his kind!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I dont think May will lead the Tories into the next election in 2022, but she has no choice but to say that she will. If she admitted -as Blair did in 2006-that she would go before the election, then the next few years would be nothing but speculation and plots about who would take over -even worse than now.
    The aging Elizabeth I always refused to name her successor saying that if she did people would follow the "rising sun" and neglect the "setting sun".
  • Good start by Emily T but a strange subject to lead on

    Great repost by David Lidington
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2018
    stodge said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.

    I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.

    London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.

    One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?

    In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:

    http://www.onlondon.co.uk/drama-in-labour-newham-mayoral-candidate-selection-as-robin-wales-urges-open-selection/
    In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.

    Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
This discussion has been closed.