Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
Mr. F, indeed, that happened dramatically with Henry IV (then very ill as well) and his son, later Henry V. Although Henry IV staged a remarkable comeback to retake regal authority and return the father-son relationship to an altogether healthier state.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
Hard to disagree with that. I think we will see the Tories hold most of their safe boroughs but with majorities slashed. In Bromley the Tories will retain control but I think they will get a nasty surprise in some of their safeish wards in the north of the borough - Copers Cope, Bromley Town, Mottingham, Plaistow & Sundridge. They are changing fast, with a mixture of people moving out of inner London and rising densification with many commuter flats being built. Copers in particular is barely recognisable in parts from when I lived there just 5 years ago. The Tories might have just one last hurrah in control of a swathe of these boroughs before losing them in 2022.
Good grief! Bercow never makes the point about 'noisy, boorish and in one case stupid men' shouting down women when May is on the receiving end.........
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
@trussliz: Brilliant skewering of Thornberry on Labour inconsistency on age of majority - should be able to vote but not use a sunbed! #backofthenet #liddersonfire #pmqs
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
It could well be close. Since 2017 you have to factor in another year's demographic change, and the slight tendency of local elections to be less Conservative than national ones.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston (snip)
Jewish issues are likely to count for bugger all in the local elections. Corbyn isn't on the ballot paper and leading figures in Barnet Labour party like Dismore are either Jewish themselves or have been courting the local Jewish vote for decades. It will be about local issues and perhaps some reflection on how the government are perceived to be doing. General elections are of course very different, but given their tiny majority I just don't see how the Tories hold control of Barnet.
EDIT - this "Jewish vote hates Corbyn" statement of yours is also over-egging the pudding IMO. The swing to Labour in Chipping Barnet and Finchley in GE 2017 was impressive, less so in Hendon but there was still a swing to them there.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
It could well be close. Since 2017 you have to factor in another year's demographic change, and the slight tendency of local elections to be less Conservative than national ones.
Local elections tend to be less Labour, as well.
If the Lib Dems can win a second seat in Childs Hill, then it could go to NOC.
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Do we actually have any direct polling of whether either the general population or Jewish people specifically believe that Corbyn is anti-semetic or has anti-Jewish policies? It would be interesting to know
La Thornberry not quite as consistent or good as I thought she might have been after a strong start.
Perhaps overwhelmed by the occasion for some reason. .
Both understudies doing better than the principals - and Thornberry got off to a great start, but chose a slightly strange topic to go on - 'votes for 16s' - has the NHS not expired in the previous week?
Also rank hypocrisy from Bercow for upbraiding 'boorish men' shouting when a woman is speaking when he doesn't do it when May is up.
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Do we actually have any direct polling of whether either the general population or Jewish people specifically believe that Corbyn is anti-semetic or has anti-Jewish policies? It would be interesting to know
Over 80 per cent of British Jews believe Labour is too tolerant of anti-Semitism within its ranks, poll finds
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and uncillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Ilford and Redbridge have a lower Jewish population than Barnet, all 3 Barnet seats went Tory last June and Finchley had the highest Jewish population in the UK
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Do we actually have any direct polling of whether either the general population or Jewish people specifically believe that Corbyn is anti-semetic or has anti-Jewish policies? It would be interesting to know
IIRC something like 80% of Jews voted Conservative last year.
I think that growing Jewish support for the Conservative Party ensured that Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green, and Harrow East remained Conservative last year, when Labour won them from 1997 to 2010.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston (snip)
Jewish issues are likely to count for bugger all in the local elections. Corbyn isn't on the ballot paper and leading figures in Barnet Labour party like Dismore are either Jewish themselves or have been courting the local Jewish vote for decades. It will be about local issues and perhaps some reflection on how the government are perceived to be doing. General elections are of course very different, but given their tiny majority I just don't see how the Tories hold control of Barnet.
EDIT - this "Jewish vote hates Corbyn" statement of yours is also over-egging the pudding IMO. The swing to Labour in Chipping Barnet and Finchley in GE 2017 was impressive, less so in Hendon but there was still a swing to them there.
If the London average swing had been replicated in Barnet last June the Tories could have lost all 3 seats, the Jewish vote ensured they held all 3
On Topic - This has got to be Theresa's final mistake.
There's no way whatsoever the Tories can risk having her lead them into another general election... She's got to go!
Not according to conservative voters
On this matter Conservative voters are wrong.
Theresa May is the woman who single-handedly blew a 20% polling lead in four weeks - I mean you would have to be literally out of your mind to want her fronting another general election campaign...
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Do we actually have any direct polling of whether either the general population or Jewish people specifically believe that Corbyn is anti-semetic or has anti-Jewish policies? It would be interesting to know
Over 80 per cent of British Jews believe Labour is too tolerant of anti-Semitism within its ranks, poll finds
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
On Topic - This has got to be Theresa's final mistake.
There's no way whatsoever the Tories can risk having her lead them into another general election... She's got to go!
Not according to conservative voters
On this matter Conservative voters are wrong.
Theresa May is the woman who single-handedly blew a 20% polling lead in four weeks - I mean you would have to be literally out of your mind to want her fronting another general election campaign...
There is a difference not leading in the 2022 GE and your comment she has got to go.
Majority of conservatives want her to stay at this time
On Topic - This has got to be Theresa's final mistake.
There's no way whatsoever the Tories can risk having her lead them into another general election... She's got to go!
Not according to conservative voters
On this matter Conservative voters are wrong.
Theresa May is the woman who single-handedly blew a 20% polling lead in four weeks - I mean you would have to be literally out of your mind to want her fronting another general election campaign...
They are not wrong, they just disagree on the exact timing. Saying you want TM to remain as PM for the moment isn't the same as saying you want her to remain as PM into the next election. You are of course right that it would be conclusive evidence of insanity to want the latter.
On Topic - This has got to be Theresa's final mistake.
There's no way whatsoever the Tories can risk having her lead them into another general election... She's got to go!
Not according to conservative voters
On this matter Conservative voters are wrong.
Theresa May is the woman who single-handedly blew a 20% polling lead in four weeks - I mean you would have to be literally out of your mind to want her fronting another general election campaign...
The question put to voters was whether May should stand down 'now' - not whether she should lead the party in a hypothetical election four years hence.
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
But is that the process? Mrs May will receive a challenge on the say-so of 15% of her MPs. It's not a high threshold and by all accounts they are withing spitting distance of that challenge going ahead. The question is what then happens.
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
I think it'd be like Major's put-up-or-shut-up leadership election of 1995.
The Tory vote held up very well indeed in Finchley considering it was a 70% remain constituency and UKIP were sub 4% there in 2015. Compare it to say Enfield Southgate which was ~ 62% remain and where the Tories got utterly tonked.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
The big challenge Labour will have in the locals is turnout.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
The big challenge Labour will have in the locals is turnout.
They will have rather more people on the ground than do the Tories
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
I think it'd be like Major's put-up-or-shut-up leadership election of 1995.
I disagree on that. I think a lot of Tory MPs think she's a disaster but support her for the moment because they think the leadership change should happen in 2019, once Brexit has formally happened. She can then retire with dignity with a plausible claim that she's delivered what voters chose, and a new leader can be chosen at a less awkward time.
However, if a confidence vote happens in the near future, the situation will change. The danger is that she comes out of it even more wounded with the jackals still circling. I think many MPs would vote against her in order to avoid that danger, despite not having wanted the vote to take place.
Interesting point from John Pienar on Daily Politics - the 'Votes for 16s' will play well on social media, which we know is a Labour strength - so even if it doesn't make the front pages, it still may be effective.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
The big challenge Labour will have in the locals is turnout.
They will have rather more people on the ground than do the Tories
If Labour's people on he ground become as obnoxious as some of their people on social media, then that may be a negative, not a positive ...
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and uncillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Ilford and Redbridge have a lower Jewish population than Barnet, all 3 Barnet seats went Tory last June and Finchley had the highest Jewish population in the UK
Not so long since the Jewish population of Redbridge was larger than Barnet. Golders Green gets more prominence than Gants Hill simply because the wealthier more prominent Jewish people moved to more expensive Barnet.
To paraphrase another response to your posts, you are all egg and no pudding.
Interesting point from John Pienar on Daily Politics - the 'Votes for 16s' will play well on social media, which we know is a Labour strength - so even if it doesn't make the front pages, it still may be effective.
You'd have thought 18-year-olds would be particularly well placed to see that votes for 16-year-olds aren't a good idea.
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
The CS is a bunch of c****. We all know they are behaving like c**** over Brexit. But at the end of the day, they are OUR bunch of c****, and I would rather our CS behaving like c**** lording it over us plebs than Brussels' CS bunch of c**** lording it over us plebs....
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
The CS is a bunch of c****. We all know they are behaving like c**** over Brexit. But at the end of the day, they are OUR bunch of c****, and I would rather our CS behaving like c**** lording it over us plebs than Brussels' CS bunch of c**** lording it over us plebs....
While the tortoise is away, the mice come out to play?
What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?
The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........
Yes, that is exactly what the article says. It's complicated! I don't see how us seceding from the CFP will help us in particular.
Any fishermen out there? To spell it out?
Have a look at greeneruk.org/ The National Trust pointed it out to me.
Leaving CAP gives us a chance to build an agriculture policy built on conservation/the environment rather than subsidy payments on land use/production.
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
The CS is a bunch of c****. We all know they are behaving like c**** over Brexit. But at the end of the day, they are OUR bunch of c****, and I would rather our CS behaving like c**** lording it over us plebs than Brussels' CS bunch of c**** lording it over us plebs....
Surely the solution is to give our bunch of c**** some language training and send them to Brussels. DExEU could be the breeding ground for a generation of British civil servants who actually understand the EU.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
The big challenge Labour will have in the locals is turnout.
They will have rather more people on the ground than do the Tories
So they may, but local elections don't exactly set the voters on fire.
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
But is that the process? Mrs May will receive a challenge on the say-so of 15% of her MPs. It's not a high threshold and by all accounts they are withing spitting distance of that challenge going ahead. The question is what then happens.
She is not a quitter and has a huge sense of public service so if she is challenged it would not surprise me if she stood firm and in those circunstances win the no confidence vote.
However, with the polls showing she is more popular with conservative voters than was expected it would be brave of the party to try to dislodge her at this time
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
I think it'd be like Major's put-up-or-shut-up leadership election of 1995.
I disagree on that. I think a lot of Tory MPs think she's a disaster but support her for the moment because they think the leadership change should happen in 2019, once Brexit has formally happened. She can then retire with dignity with a plausible claim that she's delivered what voters chose, and a new leader can be chosen at a less awkward time.
However, if a confidence vote happens in the near future, the situation will change. The danger is that she comes out of it even more wounded with the jackals still circling. I think many MPs would vote against her in order to avoid that danger, despite not having wanted the vote to take place.
I think she'd win the confidence vote, but be wounded by it.
Interesting point from John Pienar on Daily Politics - the 'Votes for 16s' will play well on social media, which we know is a Labour strength - so even if it doesn't make the front pages, it still may be effective.
If most 16-year olds were naturally right-wing, we'd hear a lot less of this argument from Labour.
Interesting point from John Pienar on Daily Politics - the 'Votes for 16s' will play well on social media, which we know is a Labour strength - so even if it doesn't make the front pages, it still may be effective.
Yes that was a very interesting conversation. Aiming for the Twitter audience rather than leading the news tonight.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
And in both areas (particularly Ilford) the Jewish population is on the decline. Barnet is a likely loss for the Tories.
Populus reckons the Conservatives won 11 Barnet wards to 10 for Labour in June 2017, so if that were repeated, the Conservatives would just hold on.
The big challenge Labour will have in the locals is turnout.
They will have rather more people on the ground than do the Tories
I would expect the Conservatives to have a decent ground game in Barnet.
Overall, both the Conservatives and Labour pushed up their vote shares in Barnet by 9% in 2017, compared to 2014, which would give the Conservatives the last seat in Childs Hill, if repeated in May.
The number of homes changing hands in London has dropped by one-fifth in four years, while homebuying activity in the Midlands and the north of England has picked up the pace, underlining problems of affordability in the capital and changing patterns of regional housing demand.
Research looking at the level of transactions from 2014 to 2017 found the number of property sales in the capital had fallen 20 per cent over the four-year period. However, transactions were up 13 per cent in the North West, and 9 per cent in both the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
But is that the process? Mrs May will receive a challenge on the say-so of 15% of her MPs. It's not a high threshold and by all accounts they are withing spitting distance of that challenge going ahead. The question is what then happens.
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
But is that the process? Mrs May will receive a challenge on the say-so of 15% of her MPs. It's not a high threshold and by all accounts they are withing spitting distance of that challenge going ahead. The question is what then happens.
She is not a quitter and has a huge sense of public service so if she is challenged it would not surprise me if she stood firm and in those circunstances win the no confidence vote.
However, with the polls showing she is more popular with conservative voters than was expected it would be brave of the party to try to dislodge her at this time
I fear a lot of MPs are talking to themselves rather than listening to voters.....
The Tory vote held up very well indeed in Finchley considering it was a 70% remain constituency and UKIP were sub 4% there in 2015. Compare it to say Enfield Southgate which was ~ 62% remain and where the Tories got utterly tonked.
Conversely, there were some substantial Labour leave areas in London, including Barking & Dagenham, much of Newham, and parts of Enfield, Hounslow, and Redbridge.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and uncillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Ilford and Redbridge have a lower Jewish population than Barnet, all 3 Barnet seats went Tory last June and Finchley had the highest Jewish population in the UK
Not so long since the Jewish population of Redbridge was larger than Barnet. Golders Green gets more prominence than Gants Hill simply because the wealthier more prominent Jewish people moved to more expensive Barnet.
To paraphrase another response to your posts, you are all egg and no pudding.
Actually half of the Jewish population of Redbridge may have moved to Barnet, most of the other half moved to Chigwell, Buckhurst Hill and Brentwood in Essex. Even Canvey Island may soon have a bigger Jewish population than Redbridge given the rising number of Orthodox Jews moving there
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
I think it'd be like Major's put-up-or-shut-up leadership election of 1995.
I disagree on that. I think a lot of Tory MPs think she's a disaster but support her for the moment because they think the leadership change should happen in 2019, once Brexit has formally happened. She can then retire with dignity with a plausible claim that she's delivered what voters chose, and a new leader can be chosen at a less awkward time.
However, if a confidence vote happens in the near future, the situation will change. The danger is that she comes out of it even more wounded with the jackals still circling. I think many MPs would vote against her in order to avoid that danger, despite not having wanted the vote to take place.
Another question. Is the confidence motion of MPs by secret ballot or open? I would expect lower levels of confidence in the first case.
What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?
The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........
Yes, that is exactly what the article says. It's complicated! I don't see how us seceding from the CFP will help us in particular.
Any fishermen out there? To spell it out?
Have a look at greeneruk.org/ The National Trust pointed it out to me.
Leaving CAP gives us a chance to build an agriculture policy built on conservation/the environment rather than subsidy payments on land use/production.
I'm very excited about it.
Does it include plans to fill Rutland Water with haddock?
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
69% of conservatives want her to continue and any other candidate will see a drop in conservative support apart from Ruth Davidson
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
But is that the process? Mrs May will receive a challenge on the say-so of 15% of her MPs. It's not a high threshold and by all accounts they are withing spitting distance of that challenge going ahead. The question is what then happens.
She is not a quitter and has a huge sense of public service so if she is challenged it would not surprise me if she stood firm and in those circunstances win the no confidence vote.
However, with the polls showing she is more popular with conservative voters than was expected it would be brave of the party to try to dislodge her at this time
I hope that if there’s a challenge the MPs take a good look around at the polling, and realise there’s no-one else who has more public support right now. Leave it a couple of years and send the grey suits in 18 months before the election.
On topic, Mrs May's fate is in the first instance in her MPs hands. I assume that sooner rather than later 48 MPs will send in their letters and, if I understand the process correctly, a confidence motion will be triggered. Questions for PBers: a) Would Mrs May stand in any confidence motion and keep going if she won it, but not overwhelmingly? b) Would she get the confidence of most of her MPs?
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
I think it'd be like Major's put-up-or-shut-up leadership election of 1995.
I disagree on that. I think a lot of Tory MPs think she's a disaster but support her for the moment because they think the leadership change should happen in 2019, once Brexit has formally happened. She can then retire with dignity with a plausible claim that she's delivered what voters chose, and a new leader can be chosen at a less awkward time.
However, if a confidence vote happens in the near future, the situation will change. The danger is that she comes out of it even more wounded with the jackals still circling. I think many MPs would vote against her in order to avoid that danger, despite not having wanted the vote to take place.
Another question. Is the confidence motion of MPs by secret ballot or open? I would expect lower levels of confidence in the first case.
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and uncillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 2014
You keep banging on about Jews in Barnet hating Labour, despite the fact it is a rich area where they've voted Conservative since the old king died, and Mrs Thatcher was a local MP, yet say nothing about Ilford North, which also has a large Jewish population, electing Labour's Wes Streeting.
Ilford and Redbridge have a lower Jewish population than Barnet, all 3 Barnet seats went Tory last June and Finchley had the highest Jewish population in the UK
To paraphrase another response to your posts, you are all egg and no pudding.
Actually half of the Jewish population of Redbridge may have moved to Barnet, most of the other half moved to Chigwell, Buckhurst Hill and Brentwood in Essex. Even Canvey Island may soon have a bigger Jewish population than Redbridge given the rising number of Orthodox Jews moving there
It's al going fairly well on Canvey, according to my spies.
With turnover in the DexEU running at over one third of staff per year, there will be plenty of people who don't care about the effect on their career.
The unfortunate thing about the leak for people who care about Brexit outcomes is that even this small amount of fact-based decision-making will be stopped. I am however heartened that the long term Treasury Report published to support the Remain case in the Referendum matches the internal document for decisionmaking afterwards. The Treasury report was falsely denounced as Project Fear but well done the civil servants for keeping it fact-based. The other Treasury report wasn't so good.
With turnover in the DexEU running at over one third of staff per year, there will be plenty of people who don't care about the effect on their career.
The unfortunate thing about the leak for people who care about Brexit outcomes is that even this small amount of fact-based decision-making will be stopped. I am however heartened that the long term Treasury Report published to support the Remain case in the Referendum matches the internal document for decisionmaking afterwards. The Treasury report was falsely denounced as Project Fear but well done the civil servants for keeping it fact-based. The other Treasury report wasn't so good.
It just seems like Continuity Project Fear.
If the original Project Fear was so "fact-based" why has the real economy performed so much better than the Treasury forecast since the referendum?
With turnover in the DexEU running at over one third of staff per year, there will be plenty of people who don't care about the effect on their career.
The unfortunate thing about the leak for people who care about Brexit outcomes is that even this small amount of fact-based decision-making will be stopped. I am however heartened that the long term Treasury Report published to support the Remain case in the Referendum matches the internal document for decisionmaking afterwards. The Treasury report was falsely denounced as Project Fear but well done the civil servants for keeping it fact-based. The other Treasury report wasn't so good.
It just seems like Continuity Project Fear.
If the original Project Fear was so "fact-based" why has the real economy performed so much better than the Treasury forecast since the referendum?
Indeed. Does anyone here know what are the protocols for firing senior members of the CS for overstepping their roles and undermining the elected representatives they’re supposed to serve?
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.
The CS is a bunch of c****. We all know they are behaving like c**** over Brexit. But at the end of the day, they are OUR bunch of c****, and I would rather our CS behaving like c**** lording it over us plebs than Brussels' CS bunch of c**** lording it over us plebs....
Surely the solution is to give our bunch of c**** some language training and send them to Brussels. DExEU could be the breeding ground for a generation of British civil servants who actually understand the EU.
Bugger that. Brussels can speak the lingua franca.
With turnover in the DexEU running at over one third of staff per year, there will be plenty of people who don't care about the effect on their career.
The unfortunate thing about the leak for people who care about Brexit outcomes is that even this small amount of fact-based decision-making will be stopped. I am however heartened that the long term Treasury Report published to support the Remain case in the Referendum matches the internal document for decisionmaking afterwards. The Treasury report was falsely denounced as Project Fear but well done the civil servants for keeping it fact-based. The other Treasury report wasn't so good.
It just seems like Continuity Project Fear.
If the original Project Fear was so "fact-based" why has the real economy performed so much better than the Treasury forecast since the referendum?
Indeed. Does anyone here know what are the protocols for firing senior members of the CS for overstepping their roles and undermining the elected representatives they’re supposed to serve?
I do.
Ennoblement Large pay off Massive pension Profuse public appreciation
Comments
The best the Conservatives can hope for is Lab. 20, Con 12. The worst is Lab 25, Con 3, Lib Dem 3, NOC 1.
It's unnatural
Perhaps overwhelmed by the occasion for some reason.
.
EDIT - this "Jewish vote hates Corbyn" statement of yours is also over-egging the pudding IMO. The swing to Labour in Chipping Barnet and Finchley in GE 2017 was impressive, less so in Hendon but there was still a swing to them there.
If the Lib Dems can win a second seat in Childs Hill, then it could go to NOC.
There's no way whatsoever the Tories can risk having her lead them into another general election... She's got to go!
Also rank hypocrisy from Bercow for upbraiding 'boorish men' shouting when a woman is speaking when he doesn't do it when May is up.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-anti-semitism-jeremy-corbyn-inquiry-shami-chakrabarti-yougov-poll-a7902251.html
Labour support just 13 per cent among UK Jews
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-support-just-13-per-cent-among-uk-jews-1.439325
My thoughts.
a) The "I am not a quitter" remark may indicate a willingness to subject herself to a confidence motion and to keep going despite a less than overwhelming endorsement.
b) Probably comes back to Brexit. Watching the government benches during a Brexit debate is illuminating. You have a noisy and very present group of enthusiasts on the left side of the benches, invariably containing Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone et al. You get a small gaggle of staunch Remainers around Anna Soubry in the middle. The rest of the benches are sparsely attended by some unhappy looking people. Most Tory MPs voted Remain with degrees of non-enthusiasm, probably privately think the whole Brexit thing is a clusterfuck, think they are stuck with it and wish it would be done and go away. They see Mrs May, who is one of them, muddling through and don't want a grassroot-endorsed fanatic to muck things up further.
https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
In Haringey, Islington, Hackney, Lambeth, Southwark, Lewisham, Newham, Barking & Dagenham, Labour won every ward, but those are wasted votes.
I think that growing Jewish support for the Conservative Party ensured that Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green, and Harrow East remained Conservative last year, when Labour won them from 1997 to 2010.
Theresa May is the woman who single-handedly blew a 20% polling lead in four weeks - I mean you would have to be literally out of your mind to want her fronting another general election campaign...
Seems unlikely she will receive a challenge this year
Majority of conservatives want her to stay at this time
Revealing that you think voters are 'wrong'......
Compare it to say Enfield Southgate which was ~ 62% remain and where the Tories got utterly tonked.
However, if a confidence vote happens in the near future, the situation will change. The danger is that she comes out of it even more wounded with the jackals still circling. I think many MPs would vote against her in order to avoid that danger, despite not having wanted the vote to take place.
To paraphrase another response to your posts, you are all egg and no pudding.
Leaving CAP gives us a chance to build an agriculture policy built on conservation/the environment rather than subsidy payments on land use/production.
I'm very excited about it.
However, with the polls showing she is more popular with conservative voters than was expected it would be brave of the party to try to dislodge her at this time
May is the saboteur in chief.
Where will the 2018 Padiham and Burnley west be
Overall, both the Conservatives and Labour pushed up their vote shares in Barnet by 9% in 2017, compared to 2014, which would give the Conservatives the last seat in Childs Hill, if repeated in May.
Research looking at the level of transactions from 2014 to 2017 found the number of property sales in the capital had fallen 20 per cent over the four-year period. However, transactions were up 13 per cent in the North West, and 9 per cent in both the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber
https://www.ft.com/content/45cd72fa-05b8-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5
What about the fisheries?
Unless it is relevant to the CFP.
Basically if you can't do X in your own life why should we trust you to look after Y.
Difficult to poll without triggering virtue signalling I suspect.
The unfortunate thing about the leak for people who care about Brexit outcomes is that even this small amount of fact-based decision-making will be stopped. I am however heartened that the long term Treasury Report published to support the Remain case in the Referendum matches the internal document for decisionmaking afterwards. The Treasury report was falsely denounced as Project Fear but well done the civil servants for keeping it fact-based. The other Treasury report wasn't so good.
If the original Project Fear was so "fact-based" why has the real economy performed so much better than the Treasury forecast since the referendum?
How gracious!
English.
Ennoblement
Large pay off
Massive pension
Profuse public appreciation
Edit - trend results here: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/poll/yougov-eurotrack-22-1-2018/
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/958309412338323456