Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead ev

13»

Comments

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Foxy said:

    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    Nah. It will be fine, nothing to fear in a little rebalancing of society. The sun will still come up in the morning.
    Yes, the sunrise will look lovely from Singapore.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    A Customs union rather than the Customs union.

    Which, as almost everyone has been saying all along, was the most probable result of Brexit.

    Isn't this just a distinction without a difference?

    How about we go the whole hog and choose to stay in "a" European union, rather than "the" European Union?
    The customs union is a WTO recognised common schedule of tariffs with the EU that covers all trade. No difference from now by definition. The/A distinction is there simply to confuse.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    kyf_100 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    "When somebody tells you who they are, believe them..."
    A country that works for everyone - not just a privileged few land owners and developers?

    The tax payer backed multi million pound bonuses the directors of the major housing developers have made from help to buy has been an absolute scandal. If only every company could put the price of their goods up by 40 per cent and get the taxpayer to bankroll consumers explicitly to cover the cost!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Foxy said:

    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    Nah. It will be fine, nothing to fear in a little rebalancing of society. The sun will still come up in the morning.
    I’m sure people thought the same when Chavez came to power. Now look at Venezuela.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited February 2018
    Sean_F said:

    If somebody had said, immediately prior to the vote in 2016, that in the next 18 months, the economy overall would grow by 2.8%, that employment would be up by 400,000, that manufacturing would be up by 4%, that exports would surge, that public borrowing would fall sharply, this would have been dismissed as stupid Leave propaganda.

    Thank goodness for the booming Eurozone that is keeping us afloat!
    Sean_F said:

    There will always be some quarters in which our economy grows more slowly than the average [of the Eurozone]. And some quarters when it grows faster.

    Probably not any more, unfortunately.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    FF43 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    A Customs union rather than the Customs union.

    Which, as almost everyone has been saying all along, was the most probable result of Brexit.

    Isn't this just a distinction without a difference?

    How about we go the whole hog and choose to stay in "a" European union, rather than "the" European Union?
    The customs union is a WTO recognised common schedule of tariffs with the EU that covers all trade. No difference from now by definition. The/A distinction is there simply to confuse.
    There's also no reason to think this is a glimpse of the end-state rather than part of a rolling capitulation. A customs agreement alone doesn't go anywhere near far enough to solve the Irish border question.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    It will be a huge mistake to stay in the customs union. It allows easier trade in goods with the EU, where we have a big deficit, while impairing our ability to do trade with the rest of the world, where we have surpluses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Elliot said:

    It will be a huge mistake to stay in the customs union. It allows easier trade in goods with the EU, where we have a big deficit, while impairing our ability to do trade with the rest of the world, where we have surpluses.

    On the plus side, you'll have a grievance and someone to blame for the elusiveness of the sunlit uplands...
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, all very odd. It's this leaked Brexit assessment paper that seems to be at the root of all this: it's put the willies up the Leavers in a way we've not hitherto seen. And understandably so. Airy talk about sovereignty is one thing; if you start pursuing policies that will actively impoverish the citizenship then that's another thing entirely. No wonder they're lashing out.
    It's just as well that the economy is perfuming well.
    Yep. Smells great!
    If somebody had said, immediately prior to the vote in 2016, that in the next 18 months, the economy overall would grow by 2.8%, that employment would be up by 400,000, that manufacturing would be up by 4%, that exports would surge, that public borrowing would fall sharply, this would have been dismissed as stupid Leave propaganda.
    The same could be said about expectations for the US and for the Eurozone. The fact remains that, in relative terms, the UK is lagging behind.
    I hardly see how unemployment at half the rate of the Eurozone makes us lagging behind. The EU might be catching up to us, but we're still in a far better place than they are.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Justine Greening tanking on QT - draw a line through her name.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    It will be a huge mistake to stay in the customs union. It allows easier trade in goods with the EU, where we have a big deficit, while impairing our ability to do trade with the rest of the world, where we have surpluses.

    On the plus side, you'll have a grievance and someone to blame for the elusiveness of the sunlit uplands...
    I'll take it from you given Remainers seem to know nothing but grievance and outrage politics.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Elliot said:
    Rihanna has had more #1s here than in France, so perhaps she holds us to a higher standard.
  • Elliot said:
    Because we hate the French.

    Why do you want us to look worse than France?

    Are you French?

    Do your loins get girded when you hear La Marseillaise?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:

    Justine Greening tanking on QT - draw a line through her name.

    She'll lose Putney next time, and be cast to the wilderness where she belongs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    brendan16 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    "When somebody tells you who they are, believe them..."
    A country that works for everyone - not just a privileged few land owners and developers?

    The tax payer backed multi million pound bonuses the directors of the major housing developers have made from help to buy has been an absolute scandal. If only every company could put the price of their goods up by 40 per cent and get the taxpayer to bankroll consumers explicitly to cover the cost!
    I have a 4 acre paddock that came with my house, worth about £50 000 as agricultural land, but twenty times that if I can get planning permission. That authorisation comes from the government, but paradoxically it is the government that has to pay the difference if it builds council houses.

    For £500 000, I am willing to split the difference :)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    You should ask yourself why he's being given a hearing. I agree with you, but successive governments have done much to destroy the UK already. Pore through piles and piles of companies house documents like I have over the past 18 months, and you'll see for yourself the astonishing amount of corporate malfeasance in the UK today.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited February 2018
    Anyhow, I think there will be a few more twists and turns on the Customs Union/the Brexit clusterfuck* yet. I have a feeling Mr Brady will get his 48 letters soon and David Herdson's impeccable gut feel suggests Mrs May won't make it through the Confidence Motion. So we have the real prospect of a new PM in short order, which doesn't fill me with joy. It will presumably be a Brexiteer - we'll adopt Boris Johnson for illustration. Boris won't say, "I endorse my predecessor in her entire capitulation to the Concentration Camp Guards". He will want to buccaneer. Meanwhile the clock ticks, the sharks circle, the rats abandon and Rome burns.

    * THE clusterfuck, not A clusterfuck
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The LDs have gained a council seat in Sunderland from Labour on a massive swing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Foxy said:
    That swing to the Lib Dems must include a large chunk of ex-UKIP voters, surprisingly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:
    That swing to the Lib Dems must include a large chunk of ex-UKIP voters, surprisingly.
    Possibly, but could also be lower turnout and good GOTV operation by LDs.
  • Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:
    That swing to the Lib Dems must include a large chunk of ex-UKIP voters, surprisingly.
    Possibly, but could also be lower turnout and good GOTV operation by LDs.
    Turnout looks to be up. 2065 votes cast in May 2016; 2320 votes cast at the by-election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:
    That swing to the Lib Dems must include a large chunk of ex-UKIP voters, surprisingly.
    Possibly, but could also be lower turnout and good GOTV operation by LDs.
    Turnout looks to be up. 2065 votes cast in May 2016; 2320 votes cast at the by-election.
    Straight kipper to LD swappers then. Nowt queerer than folk.
  • Foxy said:
    That is good news and maybe an early indication the lib dems will do well in the locals
  • I joked last night that we would see no details of the Record Survation poll because it was very good for the Nats.

    It seems now that this is no joke and that Mike actually only threads those Scottish polls which are bad for the SNP. This is a difficulty since it misleads other contributers into assuming further Tory progress or a Labour surge in Scotland. It also means that Mike hardly reports Scottish polls at all since there have been only two negative ones since the election in contrast to around five positive ones.

    Anyway the burden of the polling evidence as reflected by Baxter clearly suggests SNP gains - that the SNP will recover seats and that Labour are at best treading water while the Tories are moving backwards.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turnout in Sunderland was about 31-32%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited February 2018

    Foxy said:
    That is good news and maybe an early indication the lib dems will do well in the locals
    Results have been very patchy for all parties. I expect a confused picture after the May elections, reflecting the national political turmoil.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    hunchman said:

    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    You should ask yourself why he's being given a hearing. I agree with you, but successive governments have done much to destroy the UK already. Pore through piles and piles of companies house documents like I have over the past 18 months, and you'll see for yourself the astonishing amount of corporate malfeasance in the UK today.
    Sod him getting a hearing. His gang are fundamentally bad people who do bad things already to people they disagree with. Even their head of party discipline remains a supporter of the corruption in Tower Hamlets.

    Just 3 examples of what they'll do in power

    Gerrymander the voting system. 16+ to get the vote, voting system changed to ensure the left always wins

    State control of the media. Only Corbyn positive stories allowed.

    Capital controls to stop anyone accessing or spending their own money.

    It's all there, in plain site, and currently there are large numbers of idiots who think Corbyn is a nice bloke.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    saddo said:

    hunchman said:

    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    You should ask yourself why he's being given a hearing. I agree with you, but successive governments have done much to destroy the UK already. Pore through piles and piles of companies house documents like I have over the past 18 months, and you'll see for yourself the astonishing amount of corporate malfeasance in the UK today.
    Sod him getting a hearing. His gang are fundamentally bad people who do bad things already to people they disagree with. Even their head of party discipline remains a supporter of the corruption in Tower Hamlets.

    Just 3 examples of what they'll do in power

    Gerrymander the voting system. 16+ to get the vote, voting system changed to ensure the left always wins

    State control of the media. Only Corbyn positive stories allowed.

    Capital controls to stop anyone accessing or spending their own money.

    It's all there, in plain site, and currently there are large numbers of idiots who think Corbyn is a nice bloke.
    Project Fear.

    Not going to happen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    If there’s a second referendum, the declaration from Sunderland will be momentous.
  • Foxy said:
    That is good news and maybe an early indication the lib dems will do well in the locals
    I would take LD by-election success with a large pinch of salt, particularly where it's a 'spectacular', like here.

    Last year (between May 2016 and May 2017), the Lib Dems racked up by far the best net gains of any of the parties; come May they suffered a net loss of 42 councillors.

    FWIW, I think the LDs will make modest gains because the landscape has changed since last May and they'll do ok in their stronger parts of London. But it'll still be 'ok' in the context of having made virtually no progress in recovering the 2000 or so councillors lost since 2010.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    A good result for Labour in Falmouth
    Lab 60.2% (+19.9)
    Con 17.2% (-7.2)
    LD 17.2% (-1.7)
    Grn 5.3% (-11.1)

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Foxy said:
    That is good news and maybe an early indication the lib dems will do well in the locals
    I would take LD by-election success with a large pinch of salt, particularly where it's a 'spectacular', like here.

    Last year (between May 2016 and May 2017), the Lib Dems racked up by far the best net gains of any of the parties; come May they suffered a net loss of 42 councillors.

    FWIW, I think the LDs will make modest gains because the landscape has changed since last May and they'll do ok in their stronger parts of London. But it'll still be 'ok' in the context of having made virtually no progress in recovering the 2000 or so councillors lost since 2010.
    I agree with that. LibDem success seems to be based on very parochial issues and so much of their support is 'easy come easy go'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Looking at the table, having just got up ....... lovely morning just outside Bangkok, incidentally..... from where are UKIP going to get such a (relatively) substantial increase in votes? Apart from anything else thy wo't be able to fund many candidates!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    scotslass said:

    I joked last night that we would see no details of the Record Survation poll because it was very good for the Nats.

    It seems now that this is no joke and that Mike actually only threads those Scottish polls which are bad for the SNP. This is a difficulty since it misleads other contributers into assuming further Tory progress or a Labour surge in Scotland. It also means that Mike hardly reports Scottish polls at all since there have been only two negative ones since the election in contrast to around five positive ones.

    Anyway the burden of the polling evidence as reflected by Baxter clearly suggests SNP gains - that the SNP will recover seats and that Labour are at best treading water while the Tories are moving backwards.

    My main worry as a Labour supporter, trying to take SNP seats would be SNP voters who stayed away last time regretting their decision (especially with all the conservative wins) and the SNP base being much more motivated to turn out next time somewhat inspired by their relative failure (which was still a good performance) last time.

    Do you think there is an element of that in the SNP's recovery in polls compared to the election result?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Foxy said:

    saddo said:

    hunchman said:

    saddo said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Corbz Labour wants to take land without market compensation now...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/labour-plans-landowners-sell-state-fraction-value

    Article also points out Tories like Boles are also proposing something similar which is interesting.
    I suspect the Tories could never get this through - too many landowning supporters.
    If Corbyn & his mob of Marxist scum ever do get into power, they'll destroy the UK for generations to come. In their terms, they only float the nice stuff in public. Behind the scenes they'll have a whole stack of Stalinist rules and laws lined up to go.

    Seriously, they really are extremely dangerous and all the quisling Labour MPs who don't support Corbyn because they know all this are utterly disgraceful.
    You should ask yourself why he's being given a hearing. I agree with you, but successive governments have done much to destroy the UK already. Pore through piles and piles of companies house documents like I have over the past 18 months, and you'll see for yourself the astonishing amount of corporate malfeasance in the UK today.
    Sod him getting a hearing. His gang are fundamentally bad people who do bad things already to people they disagree with. Even their head of party discipline remains a supporter of the corruption in Tower Hamlets.

    Just 3 examples of what they'll do in power

    Gerrymander the voting system. 16+ to get the vote, voting system changed to ensure the left always wins

    State control of the media. Only Corbyn positive stories allowed.

    Capital controls to stop anyone accessing or spending their own money.

    It's all there, in plain site, and currently there are large numbers of idiots who think Corbyn is a nice bloke.
    Project Fear.

    Not going to happen.
    I doubt Corbyn is in favour of as much of an extremist programme as his detractors make him out, but some of the people surrounding him - and more importantly some of his fervoured young supporters generally approve of such things - speaking from my own acquaintance.

    If Brexit has proved one thing, it is that revolutions once started prove hard to stop and people often rally around extremes rather than seek compromise.

    I fully expect a Corbyn government to be an extreme version of itself for precisely that reason, once in power even the moderates in government will find it very hard to placate their extreme wing, given those were the ones who helped bring them to power in the first place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC radio news: for the first time more men are dying from prostate cancer than women are from breast cancer.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    scotslass said:

    I joked last night that we would see no details of the Record Survation poll because it was very good for the Nats.

    It seems now that this is no joke and that Mike actually only threads those Scottish polls which are bad for the SNP. This is a difficulty since it misleads other contributers into assuming further Tory progress or a Labour surge in Scotland. It also means that Mike hardly reports Scottish polls at all since there have been only two negative ones since the election in contrast to around five positive ones.

    Anyway the burden of the polling evidence as reflected by Baxter clearly suggests SNP gains - that the SNP will recover seats and that Labour are at best treading water while the Tories are moving backwards.

    My main worry as a Labour supporter, trying to take SNP seats would be SNP voters who stayed away last time regretting their decision (especially with all the conservative wins) and the SNP base being much more motivated to turn out next time somewhat inspired by their relative failure (which was still a good performance) last time.

    Do you think there is an element of that in the SNP's recovery in polls compared to the election result?
    In the context of a UK election campaign I would expect SNP support next time to be very flakey. I doubt that the Independence issue will figure anything like as prominently as in 2017 & 2015 , and that is likely to benefit Labour quite a bit in a 'Get the Tories out ' campaign.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    AndyJS said:

    BBC radio news: for the first time more men are dying from prostate cancer than women are from breast cancer.

    Trouble is, men don't like talking about waterworks problems. I wish there'd been screening at about 70..... I'd probably have a had a less traumatic time. Urologist/oncologist has told me I seem OK now but earlier sttention might well have saved some grief.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    It would be the general wisdom for most but I was wondering what the take of an SNP supporting Scot would be.

    I think Labours best hope is a big enough section of them decide to be Labour for Westminster elections even if they stick with SNP for Holyrood.

    Well either that or lots of the new Conservative voters swap over to Labour but I can only see the ones who really prioritise the Union and in seats it is us or the SNP doing that, so not many although I would imagine they have a pretty soft vote up north.

    Labour sort of have a similar thing in regards to Scottish independence as they do the EU were they try to take a softer approach and appeal to voters on other issues.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    It would be the general wisdom for most but I was wondering what the take of an SNP supporting Scot would be.

    I think Labours best hope is a big enough section of them decide to be Labour for Westminster elections even if they stick with SNP for Holyrood.

    Well either that or lots of the new Conservative voters swap over to Labour but I can only see the ones who really prioritise the Union and in seats it is us or the SNP doing that, so not many although I would imagine they have a pretty soft vote up north.

    Labour sort of have a similar thing in regards to Scottish independence as they do the EU were they try to take a softer approach and appeal to voters on other issues.

    In quite a few seats last time I suspect quite a few pro-Union Labour voters misdirected themselves and ended up voting Tory on a tactical basis on the assumption that Labour was not in contention. The subsequent Labour gains In Scotland will have surprised them - most seem likely to return to Labour next time.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    That was my assumption originally in the days after the election to be honest but given that shouldn't Labour have seen more of a rise in the polls in Scotland?

    Obviously polls aren't infallible and maybe they are missing Labour doing well but its too easy for me to make assumptions that suit what I want.

    I suppose after the election there could have been a Con>Lab>SNP shift, that works for my best guess.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    AndyJS said:

    BBC radio news: for the first time more men are dying from prostate cancer than women are from breast cancer.

    Trouble is, men don't like talking about waterworks problems. I wish there'd been screening at about 70..... I'd probably have a had a less traumatic time. Urologist/oncologist has told me I seem OK now but earlier sttention might well have saved some grief.
    Glad to hear you’re okay now.
    Screening sounds controversial from this - but seems like a better test would help...
    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/prostate-cancer/psa-testing/
This discussion has been closed.