This is excellent stuff. You're back to the same mode you were in before the referendum of pompously telling the other side where they were going wrong.
It's the clearest sign yet that those opposing Brexit are winning and the government's position is poised to collapse.
The other side?? You obviously have never read anything I have written over the last three years.
Second council result, with a rather different outcome to Sunderland:
Falmouth Smithwick (Cornwall)
Labour hold
Labour: 60.2 per cent (+19.9)
Conservative: 17.2 per cent (-7.2)
Lib Dems: 17.2 per cent (-1.7)
Greens: 5.3 per cent (-11)
I don't think one can read that much into either, except that great local campaigning works, especially in January...
Campaigning does matter but that of itself implies that parties' core votes continue to dwindle as voters who once voted the same way every time look for and find other options (or perhaps, more accurately, the voters don't look for them as such but when other parties insist on being looked at, the voters not only take notice but are increasingly prepare to support them).
Yes, that's very well put. Applies less at GEs because the media focus is on balanced presentation on the big party choice, so faut de mieux kicks in.
This is excellent stuff. You're back to the same mode you were in before the referendum of pompously telling the other side where they were going wrong.
It's the clearest sign yet that those opposing Brexit are winning and the government's position is poised to collapse.
The other side?? You obviously have never read anything I have written over the last three years.
The side opposed to the position you're taking. At the time it was the Leave campaign, to whom you incessantly gave advice.
Second council result, with a rather different outcome to Sunderland:
Falmouth Smithwick (Cornwall)
Labour hold
Labour: 60.2 per cent (+19.9)
Conservative: 17.2 per cent (-7.2)
Lib Dems: 17.2 per cent (-1.7)
Greens: 5.3 per cent (-11)
I don't think one can read that much into either, except that great local campaigning works, especially in January...
Campaigning does matter but that of itself implies that parties' core votes continue to dwindle as voters who once voted the same way every time look for and find other options (or perhaps, more accurately, the voters don't look for them as such but when other parties insist on being looked at, the voters not only take notice but are increasingly prepare to support them).
Yes, that's very well put. Applies less at GEs because the media focus is on balanced presentation on the big party choice, so faut de mieux kicks in.
Yes, I agree. Also, the stakes are higher at GEs, so there's less inclination to try something new as voters might at by-elections or secondary elections.
This is excellent stuff. You're back to the same mode you were in before the referendum of pompously telling the other side where they were going wrong.
It's the clearest sign yet that those opposing Brexit are winning and the government's position is poised to collapse.
The other side?? You obviously have never read anything I have written over the last three years.
The side opposed to the position you're taking. At the time it was the Leave campaign, to whom you incessantly gave advice.
If it was up to me, I would go for the Customs Union route, as the least bad option consistent with the referendum result and motivation behind that result, for the reasons I posted upthread, so I'm arguing for the position I take. My point is that this option would be attainable, if those opposed to Theresa May's approach went for it. Instead we are likely to get her version of Brexit, which is economically more damaging.
Second council result, with a rather different outcome to Sunderland:
Falmouth Smithwick (Cornwall)
Labour hold
Labour: 60.2 per cent (+19.9)
Conservative: 17.2 per cent (-7.2)
Lib Dems: 17.2 per cent (-1.7)
Greens: 5.3 per cent (-11)
I don't think one can read that much into either, except that great local campaigning works, especially in January...
Campaigning does matter but that of itself implies that parties' core votes continue to dwindle as voters who once voted the same way every time look for and find other options (or perhaps, more accurately, the voters don't look for them as such but when other parties insist on being looked at, the voters not only take notice but are increasingly prepare to support them).
Candy Atherton was a class act. I would expect the Falmouth result benefits from residual affection for her and her legacy.
From my point of view it's a little bit tragic that Corbyn's most decisive impact on British politics will be to ensure a hard Brexit. I assume that the thanks of the Tory right and Farage are in the post. .............................................
Any New Labour figure would have just signed sealed and delivered hard Brexit for the Tories, though they would have given plenty of false platitudes such as scoring the EU 10/10, which would have convinced probably nobody, maybe even a worse result?
New Labour probably helped build the leave movement, the Labour end of it anyway. If you really want to blame someone, blame the press for not giving Corbyn's EU campaign more coverage.
He clearly has sway with a lot of voters, unfortunately, though somewhat amusingly considering how much they are upset about it, the media cut off an avenue for convincing a lot more people to vote remain.
Unfortunately for the remain campaign there were no kind of broadcasting rules which meant giving time to Corbyn in the same way they had to in the general election campaign.
....................................... Wouldn't happen if I were in charge. ......................................
A dictatorship could be much more effective, just need to find someone infallible now...
The choice for Labour isnt just the binary one between hard Corbyn Labour and New Labour. There is a mainstream between the two extremes : True Labour.
How extraordinary that we have a terrible Tory government, a PM with little authority, an NHS crisis, a government doing very little to be popular on the domestic front, yet Corbyn Labour can only manage a dead tie, with no lead at all, with its leader 6 points behind on best prime minister with a polling company which was the first to predict a hung parliament in 2017.
Does Labour really think it is going to win a general election in 2022 with a 73 year old Marxist as leader, and the Tories with a new leader, Brexit done and dusted, and with the |Tories learning all the lessons of the 2017 campaign?
Steve I think the main problem is the Anti Corbyn Anti Blair Pro Brexit party you so desperately want currently exists in just about its only electable form. I think you might find the majority of them not quite Anti Corbyn enough for your liking but if you can get over that and the slight name difference....
85 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of independents and 51 percent of Republicans said the president should speak to Mueller, who is leading the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Even larger majorities said such an interview should be under oath: 93 percent of Democrats, 85 percent of independents and 67 percent of Republicans....
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Depends on the circumstances. If the public were to conclude that on balance they'd made the wrong decision, I doubt there would be many consequences beyond the spontaneous combustion of the far right. That hasn't happened yet. But it remains conceivable, if unlikely.
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Depends on the circumstances. If the public were to conclude that on balance they'd made the wrong decision, I doubt there would be many consequences beyond the spontaneous combustion of the far right. That hasn't happened yet. But it remains conceivable, if unlikely.
How would you decide public opinion had changed? Opinion polls which predicted a 100 seat May majority, a Clinton landslide and a remain win of 4 to 10 per cent?
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Lots of apathy and a conservative landslide , backed by big business.
We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:
When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Depends on the circumstances. If the public were to conclude that on balance they'd made the wrong decision, I doubt there would be many consequences beyond the spontaneous combustion of the far right. That hasn't happened yet. But it remains conceivable, if unlikely.
How would you decide public opinion had changed? Opinion polls which predicted a 100 seat May majority, a Clinton landslide and a remain win of 4 to 10 per cent?
Me? I'd hold another referendum - but only if Wrong was showing a lead of something like 20%. I'm not expecting that at all.
My current expectation is that Britain will Leave at the end of March 2017 but with Wrong by then very firmly in the lead. I doubt that will do much for Conservative poll ratings in the long term, reduce the insufferable paranoia endemic among Leavers or make the country a happier place.
Yeah that worked out well conversely when right wingers wanted Jezza as leader of Lab.
Good to see it's not just the Cons members who seem to have blinkers on when it comes to reality.
The Conservatives picked the wrong target, they didn't realise the shift that was taking place.
Although there is always a chance of anything going wrong Mogg would be one of my first picks as an opponent for Corbyn, it represents Labours best chance of getting a good majority next election.
If you wanted Labour to do really well and were picking a realistic (among the runners and somewhat a fit for the voters) leader for the Conservatives wouldn't you pick Rees-Mogg?
............................................. Maybe we should set up a scheme to let you vote for £3. .............................................
I'd be tempted but I assume I can't as a member of another political party and I would feel bad about giving the Conservatives £3.
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Perhaps the elderly leavers would come out in the shires waving their zimmer frames?
Seriously I don't think it would have any lasting consequence. There is a disillusionment with politics anyway, particularly among the Leavers. It might depress turnout among Leavers ("why bother voting if they ignore us") which would be a blessing, but apart from that - no consequences.
I'm trying to get my head around this Brexit nonsense. Considering the arithmetic of the HoC, our negotiating position etc.....there is only one possible fudge available.....a deal that keeps us in the EU in all but name that will be passed by the plurality of our Parliament who generally want to put this sorry and shameful episode behind us without a further election or the need for a second divisive referendum.
No dealeferendum.
These are the numbers Osbo was alluding too yesterday. A fudge is the only way forward if the Tory party wants to remain in Govt.......or am I missing something blindingly obvious?
Those opposing the government and unhappy at Brexit are making exactly the same mistake the Brexiteers made before the referendum - not working out and agreeing what they actually want that is different from the Canada Plus Plus deal which the UK government has clearly* stated is its goal. Some want to remain in the EU, although who knows on what terms. Some want EEA/Norway, i.e. Single Market but not Customs Union, and no control on freedom of movement. Some want a referendum on an option which might not exist. Some seem to just want the whole issue to go away. Some are just causing trouble for the sake of it. The Labour Party is all over the place, with Corbyn seeming to want the same as Theresa May, Starmer wanting a mythical Single Market + Customs Union but no freedom of movement fantasy, and the membership mostly wanting to Remain.
If I were to proffer advice to this disparate bunch, I would recommend that they coalesce around one option, namely to remain in the Customs Union (or 'a' Customs Union) but not the Single Market, i.e. roughly the Turkey option. That would minimise trade damage, minimise disruption, solve the Irish border problem, and would be consistent with the referendum vote which was largely about controlling immigration. The downside would be that we couldn't negotiate our own trade deals, and that Liam Fox would be out of a job. I dare say the country could bear the latter blow with fortitude.
This advice, excellent though it is, will not be followed.
* (As an aside, I'm baffled by the frequent criticism that Theresa May has been unclear - she's been very clear. The uncertainty is entirely because the EU has so far refused to discuss the future relationship).
The Customs Union option is doable and would minimise the damage Brexit could cause. The downside is not being able to do trade deals, but given the hand we’d have and the relatively small difference even the best one would make in comparison to the problems leaving the Customs Union are going to cause that’s not a huge problem. In fact, we might find staying in the CU is a major facilitator in other areas, too. The stumbling block here is the ambition of certain politicians on both sides of the House.
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Well sort of. I'd rather cancel Brexit altogether. But failing that the quicker and harder the better so we can start the campaign to get back in.
And what consequences do you think cancelling Brexit would have for democracy-with over half the population feeling that the result of a democratic referendum had been ignored by the Establishment?
Depends on the circumstances. If the public were to conclude that on balance they'd made the wrong decision, I doubt there would be many consequences beyond the spontaneous combustion of the far right. That hasn't happened yet. But it remains conceivable, if unlikely.
How would you decide public opinion had changed? Opinion polls which predicted a 100 seat May majority, a Clinton landslide and a remain win of 4 to 10 per cent?
Me? I'd hold another referendum - but only if Wrong was showing a lead of something like 20%. I'm not expecting that at all.
My current expectation is that Britain will Leave at the end of March 2017 but with Wrong by then very firmly in the lead. I doubt that will do much for Conservative poll ratings in the long term, reduce the insufferable paranoia endemic among Leavers or make the country a happier place.
I think the counterfactual may well have been a very narrow remain vote, Farage and UKIP riding high in the polls and good leads for "Wrong to remain".
There probably never was a unifying path post referendum
Those opposing the government and unhappy at Brexit are making exactly the same mistake the Brexiteers made before the referendum - not working out and agreeing what they actually want that is different from the Canada Plus Plus deal which the UK government has clearly* stated is its goal. Some want to remain in the EU, although who knows on what terms. Some want EEA/Norway, i.e. Single Market but not Customs Union, and no control on freedom of movement. Some want a referendum on an option which might not exist. Some seem to just want the whole issue to go away. Some are just causing trouble for the sake of it. The Labour Party is all over the place, with Corbyn seeming to want the same as Theresa May, Starmer wanting a mythical Single Market + Customs Union but no freedom of movement fantasy, and the membership mostly wanting to Remain.
If I were to proffer advice to this disparate bunch, I would recommend that they coalesce around one option, namely to remain in the Customs Union (or 'a' Customs Union) but not the Single Market, i.e. roughly the Turkey option. That would minimise trade damage, minimise disruption, solve the Irish border problem, and would be consistent with the referendum vote which was largely about controlling immigration. The downside would be that we couldn't negotiate our own trade deals, and that Liam Fox would be out of a job. I dare say the country could bear the latter blow with fortitude.
This advice, excellent though it is, will not be followed.
* (As an aside, I'm baffled by the frequent criticism that Theresa May has been unclear - she's been very clear. The uncertainty is entirely because the EU has so far refused to discuss the future relationship).
The Customs Union option is doable and would minimise the damage Brexit could cause. The downside is not being able to do trade deals, but given the hand we’d have and the relatively small difference even the best one would make in comparison to the problems leaving the Customs Union are going to cause that’s not a huge problem. In fact, we might find staying in the CU is a major facilitator in other areas, too. The stumbling block here is the ambition of certain politicians on both sides of the House.
It's amazing how quickly the Hannanite 'doing our own trade deals with the rest of the world' has fallen out of favour. We were once told that this was the pulsating ambition that drove the very essence of Brexit. Now everyone seems quite happy to ditch it.
Those opposing the government and unhappy at Brexit are making exactly the same mistake the Brexiteers made before the referendum - not working out and agreeing what they actually want that is different from the Canada Plus Plus deal which the UK government has clearly* stated is its goal. Some want to remain in the EU, although who knows on what terms. Some want EEA/Norway, i.e. Single Market but not Customs Union, and no control on freedom of movement. Some want a referendum on an option which might not exist. Some seem to just want the whole issue to go away. Some are just causing trouble for the sake of it. The Labour Party is all over the place, with Corbyn seeming to want the same as Theresa May, Starmer wanting a mythical Single Market + Customs Union but no freedom of movement fantasy, and the membership mostly wanting to Remain.
If I were to proffer advice to this disparate bunch, I would recommend that they coalesce around one option, namely to remain in the Customs Union (or 'a' Customs Union) but not the Single Market, i.e. roughly the Turkey option. That would minimise trade damage, minimise disruption, solve the Irish border problem, and would be consistent with the referendum vote which was largely about controlling immigration. The downside would be that we couldn't negotiate our own trade deals, and that Liam Fox would be out of a job. I dare say the country could bear the latter blow with fortitude.
This advice, excellent though it is, will not be followed.
* (As an aside, I'm baffled by the frequent criticism that Theresa May has been unclear - she's been very clear. The uncertainty is entirely because the EU has so far refused to discuss the future relationship).
The Customs Union option is doable and would minimise the damage Brexit could cause. The downside is not being able to do trade deals, but given the hand we’d have and the relatively small difference even the best one would make in comparison to the problems leaving the Customs Union are going to cause that’s not a huge problem. In fact, we might find staying in the CU is a major facilitator in other areas, too. The stumbling block here is the ambition of certain politicians on both sides of the House.
It's amazing how quickly the Hannanite 'doing our own trade deals with the rest of the world' has fallen out of favour. We were once told that this was the pulsating ambition that drove the very essence of Brexit. Now everyone seems quite happy to ditch it.
My starting point on Brexit is if Dan Hannan, Andrew Lilico and the other members of the Empire 2.0 brigade are for it, I’m against it.
The Customs Union option is doable and would minimise the damage Brexit could cause. The downside is not being able to do trade deals, but given the hand we’d have and the relatively small difference even the best one would make in comparison to the problems leaving the Customs Union are going to cause that’s not a huge problem. In fact, we might find staying in the CU is a major facilitator in other areas, too. The stumbling block here is the ambition of certain politicians on both sides of the House.
I don't think it's about the ambition of politicians (well, apart from one politician). I think that in the case of the libertarian-style Tory Brexiteers, such as Dan Hannan and Liam Fox, they genuinely believe that doing our own trade deals with countries around the world is a crucial feature of Brexit. (See Richard Tyndall of this parish, and others here, for a similar view).
Personally, I've never bought this argument. I agree with you that any such trade deals are going to be difficult to negotiate and even in the most optimistic scenario won't bring advantages which outweigh the disadvantage of not retaining frictionless trade with the EU. But this argument is being drowned out by the noise of Continuity Remainers and those wanting to make political points, as we have seen in the past few days with the faux outrage about the fact that economic models show the same results as they did last time they were run.
Comments
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/959406205612560384
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/959409186365935616
https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/959411145558888448
That seems a long way off in my head!!
It didn't work - shouldn't you try something else ?
Even "Brexit gives you AIDs" would be more interesting or something.
Does Labour really think it is going to win a general election in 2022 with a 73 year old Marxist as leader, and the Tories with a new leader, Brexit done and dusted, and with the |Tories learning all the lessons of the 2017 campaign?
Seriously?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/02/02/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-42-28-29-/
Employment up, GDP up, borrowing down..
Public aren't daft...
Perhaps true of the odd and very narrow selection who comprise the membership of the Conservative party; the rest of us, not so much.
Despite all the Republican propaganda of recent weeks...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/01/trump-mueller-interview-oath-poll-383173
85 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of independents and 51 percent of Republicans said the president should speak to Mueller, who is leading the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Even larger majorities said such an interview should be under oath: 93 percent of Democrats, 85 percent of independents and 67 percent of Republicans....
I should warn you though that not all left wingers have the Conservatives best interests at heart.
Good to see it's not just the Cons members who seem to have blinkers on when it comes to reality.
Morrisons launches Yorkshire pudding PIZZAS topped with cheese and pepperoni
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-5343893/Morrisons-launches-Yorkshire-pudding-PIZZAS.html
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/959408565709615109
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/959424850359209984
Their fresh fish is pretty good, though.
When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view
We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would
Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain
The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
https://tinyurl.com/ybzaqocz
It didn't stop people who should know better from writing articles about the previous poll under headlines like this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/22/bregrets-had-tough-luck-remainers-majority-still-wants-leave/
My current expectation is that Britain will Leave at the end of March 2017 but with Wrong by then very firmly in the lead. I doubt that will do much for Conservative poll ratings in the long term, reduce the insufferable paranoia endemic among Leavers or make the country a happier place.
Although there is always a chance of anything going wrong Mogg would be one of my first picks as an opponent for Corbyn, it represents Labours best chance of getting a good majority next election.
If you wanted Labour to do really well and were picking a realistic (among the runners and somewhat a fit for the voters) leader for the Conservatives wouldn't you pick Rees-Mogg?
.............................................
Maybe we should set up a scheme to let you vote for £3.
.............................................
I'd be tempted but I assume I can't as a member of another political party and I would feel bad about giving the Conservatives £3.
Seriously I don't think it would have any lasting consequence. There is a disillusionment with politics anyway, particularly among the Leavers. It might depress turnout among Leavers ("why bother voting if they ignore us") which would be a blessing, but apart from that - no consequences.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Depending how things go, I might try writing a UK/EU article based on this book.
This is the first time since the summer of 2017 when ‘right’ has been in the lead.
There probably never was a unifying path post referendum
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?
Personally, I've never bought this argument. I agree with you that any such trade deals are going to be difficult to negotiate and even in the most optimistic scenario won't bring advantages which outweigh the disadvantage of not retaining frictionless trade with the EU. But this argument is being drowned out by the noise of Continuity Remainers and those wanting to make political points, as we have seen in the past few days with the faux outrage about the fact that economic models show the same results as they did last time they were run.
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