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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream is realised

SUNDAY TIMES LEAD: ‘Brexiteer Plot’ by @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/70OGZyDhvO

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345
    First! Like Mrs May & Leave.

    More hysteria & posturing.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 314
    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345
    Curiously “tariff free market access” is not the top priority of Remain voters:

    For remain voters, the things they said they would most like to retain are freedom of movement (36%), tariff-free market access (27%) and continued co-operation on policing and security (19%). Notice that while opposition to Brexit is often talked about in terms of economic risk, of tariffs and market access, what Remains would most like is to retain the right to live and work in the EU. Perhaps that’s because it’s a direct benefit – most of us do not run or work in business that directly export to the EU - but then, most of us will never take up the opportunity to live elsewhere in the EU either.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/02/02/what-do-public-want-brexit-negotiations/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345

    Curiously “tariff free market access” is not the top priority of Remain voters:

    For remain voters, the things they said they would most like to retain are freedom of movement (36%), tariff-free market access (27%) and continued co-operation on policing and security (19%). Notice that while opposition to Brexit is often talked about in terms of economic risk, of tariffs and market access, what Remains would most like is to retain the right to live and work in the EU. Perhaps that’s because it’s a direct benefit – most of us do not run or work in business that directly export to the EU - but then, most of us will never take up the opportunity to live elsewhere in the EU either.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/02/02/what-do-public-want-brexit-negotiations/

    Unfortunately this is directly contradicted by Leave voters top concern:

    Among those people who voted Leave back in 2016......Top is the ability for Britain to control immigration (45%)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,003
    Priti Patel?

    Please God no.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,709

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,886
    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,047
    What of course has happened is that all parties seemed to have boxed themselves in. That is, of course, if we assume that the Leader of the largest party, or indeed any party leader is to be PM. However, there's no rule which say that has to be. If Auntie May loses the confidence of her cabinet it is not impossible that she could advise the Queen to send for whoever....... BoJo??? .... whom she has been assured can succeed in a vote of confidence in the House. BoJo or whoever would then have to follow the same path as May in 2016, in getting a one candidate election going.
    Whether anyone from the Back to the Victorians tendency could in fact win a vote of confidence, as Churchill did in 1940, is I think, and soncerely hope, unlikely.
    A constitutional crisis, followed by a coupon election, at least as far as the Tories wre concerned, would follow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,003
    Sandpit said:

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
    If Mrs May is unable to pass a Brexit bill, then the government will fall.

    To crash out of our trading arrangements with the EU, and with all those countries with which the EU has agreements, in a disorganised manner would be - errrr... - unpleasant. And the government would be blamed. So, I suspect that in the event of being unable to pass the bill, Mrs May would resign. I don't believe any other Conservative could get the bill passed, and therefore I expect there would be a general election.

    I do not know what happens next.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,003
    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    I'm fairly sure June 2016 was decision time about the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,239
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%


    :innocent:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,709
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
    If Mrs May is unable to pass a Brexit bill, then the government will fall.

    To crash out of our trading arrangements with the EU, and with all those countries with which the EU has agreements, in a disorganised manner would be - errrr... - unpleasant. And the government would be blamed. So, I suspect that in the event of being unable to pass the bill, Mrs May would resign. I don't believe any other Conservative could get the bill passed, and therefore I expect there would be a general election.

    I do not know what happens next.
    I’m inclined to agree with your sequence of events, and I think that with a dozen or two rebels on either side of her own party she is going to struggle to get any Brexit Bill through the Commons.

    Labour also need to be careful not to overplay their hand by mindlessly opposing anything rather than being constructive about things. They have their own rebels and have managed to say nothing that might offend anyone so far.

    Given we know Corbyn wants us out, it’s possible he might whip an abstention were it not for the fact that the Bill falling takes the government down with it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345
    edited February 4
    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    Regardless of what you would prefer to happen, what do you think the most likely outcome is?

    Britain remaining a full member of the EU: 4% (-4)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4pm5gpsp72/InternalResults_180117_AnthonyBrexitQs_w.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,827
    Some Conservatives are trying so hard to give the LibDems a boost before the local elections...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879
    edited February 4
    it is the more fundamentalist Brexiteers that are revolting...Paddy Power are offering 10/1 on the disgraced former Defence Secretary having to resign again.

    You don't have to be so subtle about it TSE. You should tell us how they love extra pineapple on pizza and read books praising Hannibal every night, just to be absolutely clear how much you hate them.

    Otherwise we might run away with the idea you think they have a point about May, and then where would you be?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345

    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    Regardless of what you would prefer to happen, what do you think the most likely outcome is?

    Britain remaining a full member of the EU: 4% (-4)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4pm5gpsp72/InternalResults_180117_AnthonyBrexitQs_w.pdf
    The top two options were:

    Leave EU with limited trade deal, control of immigration but barriers (to trade): 39
    Leave EU but stay in single market - free trade on exports but follow some (regulations): 15
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,328
    If Mrs May does agree to a customs union deal with the EU then The Sunday Times article says Liam Fox is prepared to resign

    That does make sense given that Fox's job would then become pointless.

    That the government would be fronted by some of the most loathed and hated politicians in the country,

    Is George Osborne coming back?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,538
    A government whose leading members were Boris Johnson (congenital plotter and openly disloyal to Theresa May), Michael Gove (who famously knifed Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign), IDS (Maastricht rebel) and Priti Patel (formed an independent foreign policy and lied to the Prime Minister about it) would be a contender for the most treacherous Cabinet ever.
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 32
    I would note only vote for such a dream team but actively try to help them. Anything to get rid of the hated liberal left.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,827
    The ides of March come round every day. The enemies within her party who accuse Mrs May of being indecisive and incoherent share those traits with the object of their dismay.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/theresa-may-tories-leadership-contest
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,494

    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    Regardless of what you would prefer to happen, what do you think the most likely outcome is?

    Britain remaining a full member of the EU: 4% (-4)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4pm5gpsp72/InternalResults_180117_AnthonyBrexitQs_w.pdf
    The fact that opposition to Brexit is so high despite so few people believing it is possible to stop it doesn’t augur well for the Brexiteers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345
    IanB2 said:

    The ides of March come round every day. The enemies within her party who accuse Mrs May of being indecisive and incoherent share those traits with the object of their dismay.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/theresa-may-tories-leadership-contest

    Interesting article - at the end Thatcher was the problem - while May has her flaws she is more a symptom of the problem and getting rid of her will do little to address it - instead may exacerbate it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345

    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    Regardless of what you would prefer to happen, what do you think the most likely outcome is?

    Britain remaining a full member of the EU: 4% (-4)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4pm5gpsp72/InternalResults_180117_AnthonyBrexitQs_w.pdf
    The fact that opposition to Brexit is so high despite so few people believing it is possible to stop it doesn’t augur well for the Brexiteers.
    Writes one of the 4%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879

    Interesting article - at the end Thatcher was the problem - while May has her flaws she is more a symptom of the problem and getting rid of her will do little to address it - instead may exacerbate it.

    It is clear that the right of her party believes May exacerbates it...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?
  • As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Tony Blair? Arsene Wenger? TSE?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,524
    rcs1000 said:



    I do not know what happens next.

    The stability and relative prosperity of the Cameron/Osborne years would look like a wondrous fable at that point.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,538

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Angela Merkel
    Journalists
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,427

    A government whose leading members were Boris Johnson (congenital plotter and openly disloyal to Theresa May), Michael Gove (who famously knifed Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign), IDS (Maastricht rebel) and Priti Patel (formed an independent foreign policy and lied to the Prime Minister about it) would be a contender for the most treacherous Cabinet ever.

    You put it best last night.

    A government of all the shits.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Angela Merkel
    Journalists

    One thing we know for sure is that “themselves” will never be added to the list.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879
    A few jokes to liven up the morning:

    A streaker ran through a church. They caught him by the organ.
    Did he Swell up?
    No.
    Sure?
    Yes, Positive.

    Bach had 14 children. He was always complaining he didn't have enough stops on his organ.

    How does an organist change a lightbulb?
    Holds it up and wait for the world to revolve around them.

    How do you make $1 million dollars?
    Start with $2 million and work as an organist.

    Next Sunday, there will be a brief organ recital by the organist of St Martin in the Fields. Our organist Mr Dobson will prevent the entertainment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084
    Reading between the lines, I would say that TSE is not a fan of the three Brexiteer plan.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Labour
    Ken Clarke
    Tony Blair
    The Guardian
    George Osborne
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879
    Jonathan said:

    Reading between the lines, I would say that TSE is not a fan of the three Brexiteer plan.

    He is very subtle and discreet about it though. It's like his Star Trek puns.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084
    edited February 4
    I understand why TSE dislikes the plan, but he seems in denial. The three Brexiteers fully represent his Tory party and the policies they're implementing.

    This is a party supported by leavers, who want an ideological Brexit. Pragmatic one nation conservatism and economic prudence are old news.

    Why bother stretching a veneer over this. I am not sure what popularity Jeremy Hunt has to offer anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,517
    Good morning, everyone.

    Six Nations: stunning last minute victory for Ireland, but Scotland... well. That wasn't good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,477
    Nick Cohen on very much the same lines (and pointing out that Corbyn is a mirror image of the gang):
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/when-brexit-fails-it-wont-be-fault-of-tory-right-jacob-rees-mogg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,741
    Jonathan said:

    I understand why TSE dislikes the plan, but he seems in denial. The three Brexiteers fully represent his Tory party and the policies they're implementing.

    Why bother stretching a veneer over this. I am not sure what popularity Jeremy Hunt has to offer.

    Jeremy C Vs Jeremy C
  • Jonathan said:

    I understand why TSE dislikes the plan, but he seems in denial. The three Brexiteers fully represent his Tory party and the policies they're implementing.

    Why bother stretching a veneer over this. I am not sure what popularity Jeremy Hunt has to offer.

    I win about £16,000 if Jeremy Hunt becomes our next PM.

    He’d be very popular with me.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,654
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
    If Mrs May is unable to pass a Brexit bill, then the government will fall.

    To crash out of our trading arrangements with the EU, and with all those countries with which the EU has agreements, in a disorganised manner would be - errrr... - unpleasant. And the government would be blamed. So, I suspect that in the event of being unable to pass the bill, Mrs May would resign. I don't believe any other Conservative could get the bill passed, and therefore I expect there would be a general election.

    I do not know what happens next.
    Interesting to watch the body language of the few mainstream conservative MPs that show up to Brexit debates - or not hardcore Leavers or Remainers. They clearly hate what's happening and wish Brexit would get sorted and go away.

    "Time to declare victory and bring the boys home" as Senator George Aiken didn't quite say about the Vietnam quagmire.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879
    edited February 4

    Jonathan said:

    I understand why TSE dislikes the plan, but he seems in denial. The three Brexiteers fully represent his Tory party and the policies they're implementing.

    Why bother stretching a veneer over this. I am not sure what popularity Jeremy Hunt has to offer.

    I win about £16,000 if Jeremy Hunt becomes our next PM.

    He’d be very popular with me.
    He would also be a better PM than Corbyn.

    Admittedly that is true of pretty much every member of the Commons aside from McDonnell.

    Edit - and that may be unfair to the Maoist. He is at least reasonably intelligent and has had an actual job.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,654
    Have your fruitcake and eat it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084
    Could Hunt lead this Tory party? It's moved and is moving away from him. He would be a weak, lousy pm if he could never count on the support of his own party.

    Your best bet might be to preempt the drift and elevate the most sensible Brexiteer now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,741
    edited February 4
    Johnson Mogg Gove is a non starter. Johnson-Rudd OTOH looks very plausible
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,742

    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%


    :innocent:

    Yes, about 50:50.
  • I admire and respect the effort that headline writers put into this site: That said we have the same, meaningless drivel from Caliph HB from Sheffield-Hallam. So 'Java 9 for the Impatient' will have to provide today's entertainment.

    :rock-moggster:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,026
    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879

    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?

    Off on amother route to power?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,538

    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?

    Is it a real story in the sense the words have been uttered? Yes, I expect so: Tim Shipman is the best-connected journalist in Conservative circles out there and he has no reason to prejudice his good name. Is it a serious plot? I doubt it. It looks more like an attempt to give the steering wheel a sharp right tug.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,654
    edited February 4

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    The Establishment innit?

    Incidentally, this is a good article and the reason why staying in the EU is also a bad option. There are no good Brexit options

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/03/brexit-redcar-bracknell-steel
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,165
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
    If Mrs May is unable to pass a Brexit bill, then the government will fall.

    To crash out of our trading arrangements with the EU, and with all those countries with which the EU has agreements, in a disorganised manner would be - errrr... - unpleasant. And the government would be blamed. So, I suspect that in the event of being unable to pass the bill, Mrs May would resign. I don't believe any other Conservative could get the bill passed, and therefore I expect there would be a general election.

    I do not know what happens next.
    I’m inclined to agree with your sequence of events, and I think that with a dozen or two rebels on either side of her own party she is going to struggle to get any Brexit Bill through the Commons.

    Labour also need to be careful not to overplay their hand by mindlessly opposing anything rather than being constructive about things. They have their own rebels and have managed to say nothing that might offend anyone so far.

    Given we know Corbyn wants us out, it’s possible he might whip an abstention were it not for the fact that the Bill falling takes the government down with it.
    I don't think the Commons votes will be much of a problem. The government had a majority of 29 for the Third Reading of its Bill.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,165

    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?

    It doesn't seem very likely to me.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,924
    Jonathan said:

    Could Hunt lead this Tory party? It's moved and is moving away from him. He would be a weak, lousy pm if he could never count on the support of his own party.

    Your best bet might be to preempt the drift and elevate the most sensible Brexiteer now.

    Who is the most sensible Brexiteer?

    When Theresa May formed her first Cabinet I would have said that David Davis was that individual, but my opinion of the master negotiator has rather declined.

    Michael Gove has, to my surprise, said some positive things as Environment Secretary, but I'd never be able to describe the Tory Maoist as sensible.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,047
    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,494
    Sean_F said:

    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?

    It doesn't seem very likely to me.
    Is it Boris and Gove trying to make sure the JRM bandwagon doesn't become too detached from them?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,517
    Six Nations, perusing the Italy/England markets on Ladbrokes. Quite a few of potential interest. Italy can be very tough at home, especially in the first half. Whilst I expect England to win, I also think things could be very tight for the first 40 minutes.

    Things that particularly caught my eye were:
    Italy (+10) to win the first half at 2.
    Italy/England for half/full time winners at 8 (if that sounds fanciful, it would've paid off last year).

    NB Italy to win the first half at 5.5 is available but I think if that happens England will still win overall, so I prefer the other bet, at longer odds.

    I did look at England winning the second half by more than 14 points at 1.9, but the odds are a bit tight.

    Incidentally, with boost those odds are 2.05 and 9.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,104
    AndyJS said:

    'The time is now' for Britons to change mind on leaving EU, says Tory MP and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve

    Exclusive: Former cabinet minister warns the next six months are 'decision time' over UK's withdrawal from EU"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-dominic-grieve-running-out-time-customs-union-boris-johnson-michael-gove-a8193106.html

    What a slippery duplicitous man Dominic Grieve has become. He’s not calling for a second referendum, but simultaneously wants people to have the chance to change their mind. He also thinks it’s a ‘conundrum’ that Parliament has been asked to do something that most MPs and Lords don’t want to. It’s not a conundrum; it’s democracy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,494

    Who is the most sensible Brexiteer?

    When Theresa May formed her first Cabinet I would have said that David Davis was that individual, but my opinion of the master negotiator has rather declined.

    Based on his body language and demeanour I think he's the Brexiteer who's been most thoroughly disabused of his delusions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,612

    Do we believe this story? Is there any real evidence Gove, Boris and JRM or even their lieutenants are conspiring together, rather than separately? I'm not sure it passes the smell test. It sounds more like a Remainer's nightmare than a dream team. Though where is Andrea Leadsom in all of this?

    I can easily believe this story originates from - and as - a formulation of Remainer worst fears. It has certainly got TSE wetting the bed. Things are coming to a head in the next couple of weeks. It will decide the shape of the Brexit we (at least try to) purse - and much else. Seems the Remainers fear they might be losing traction - and are getting their blame in first. "We only lost because these shits were threatening to bring down the Government...."

    But Remainers, when your Last Best Hope is Dominic Grieve.....

    *titter*

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,538
    FF43 said:

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    The Establishment innit?

    Incidentally, this is a good article and the reason why staying in the EU is also a bad option. There are no good Brexit options

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/03/brexit-redcar-bracknell-steel
    An establishment view:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,517
    Mr. Blue, I wonder if Grieve is aiming to make his 'meaningful vote' one on rejecting leaving the EU altogether, or for a second referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Only one name on my list : T May.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,494
    edited February 4
    TGOHF said:

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Only one name on my list : T May.
    What precisely do you think she should have done differently presuming you approved of the Lancaster House speech and invoking Article 50 last March?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648

    TGOHF said:

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    Only one name on my list : T May.
    What precisely do you think she should have done differently presuming you approved of the Lancaster House speech and invoking Article 50 last March?
    Her lack of leadership and vision has allowed these various groups of headless chickens to push her around.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,612
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    second, like BJ - the trouble is, the EU vision espoused by those 3 musketeers would never pass a vote in the Commons, let alone the Lords...an interesting thought but I reckon a wet dream for the Tory right

    But it doesn’t work that way round. If Parliament won’t pass a deal then we leave without one.
    If Mrs May is unable to pass a Brexit bill, then the government will fall.

    To crash out of our trading arrangements with the EU, and with all those countries with which the EU has agreements, in a disorganised manner would be - errrr... - unpleasant. And the government would be blamed. So, I suspect that in the event of being unable to pass the bill, Mrs May would resign. I don't believe any other Conservative could get the bill passed, and therefore I expect there would be a general election.

    I do not know what happens next.
    I’m inclined to agree with your sequence of events, and I think that with a dozen or two rebels on either side of her own party she is going to struggle to get any Brexit Bill through the Commons.

    Labour also need to be careful not to overplay their hand by mindlessly opposing anything rather than being constructive about things. They have their own rebels and have managed to say nothing that might offend anyone so far.

    Given we know Corbyn wants us out, it’s possible he might whip an abstention were it not for the fact that the Bill falling takes the government down with it.
    I don't think the Commons votes will be much of a problem. The government had a majority of 29 for the Third Reading of its Bill.
    Labour would not want to be seen as the party that blocked Brexit.

    That's what the LibDems are for.

    I suspect rather than block Brexit, enough Labour MPs in leave-voting seats would abstain. Or get an imprtant appointent to remove some wisdom teeth. After all, how many want to block Brexit and then immediately have to face their electorate in a General Election?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    One day the mainstream media will unmask a Momentum member who is not from a privileged, middle class background.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,517
    As an aside, the fifteenth chapter of the second book of Machiavelli's Discourses on Livy is about how harmful slow and ambiguous decisions are.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,104

    Mr. Blue, I wonder if Grieve is aiming to make his 'meaningful vote' one on rejecting leaving the EU altogether, or for a second referendum.

    The fact that he might even consider it acceptable for a vote in Parliament to overturn the referendum shows that he has no business being an MP, let alone a Tory one. If ultimately you don’t think the people should get what they vote for, it’s totally hypocritical to put yourself up for election.

    TSE et al bang on about JRM’s reactionary views. The true reactionaries are people like Grieve, who’s views on popular sovereignty would fit well in the 19th century.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,654

    Jonathan said:

    Could Hunt lead this Tory party? It's moved and is moving away from him. He would be a weak, lousy pm if he could never count on the support of his own party.

    Your best bet might be to preempt the drift and elevate the most sensible Brexiteer now.

    Who is the most sensible Brexiteer?

    When Theresa May formed her first Cabinet I would have said that David Davis was that individual, but my opinion of the master negotiator has rather declined.

    Michael Gove has, to my surprise, said some positive things as Environment Secretary, but I'd never be able to describe the Tory Maoist as sensible.
    David Davis was the only Brexiteer that tried to make the project work. He failed, as was inevitable.

    I give him some kudos.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,052

    A government whose leading members were Boris Johnson (congenital plotter and openly disloyal to Theresa May), Michael Gove (who famously knifed Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign), IDS (Maastricht rebel) and Priti Patel (formed an independent foreign policy and lied to the Prime Minister about it) would be a contender for the most treacherous Cabinet ever.

    There’s room for Liam Fox in there also...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    FF43 said:

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    The Establishment innit?

    Incidentally, this is a good article and the reason why staying in the EU is also a bad option. There are no good Brexit options

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/03/brexit-redcar-bracknell-steel
    An establishment view:

    Nick is a nice man (he is non-executive chairman of our main company) but he'd gone off the deep end on this one...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,879
    edited February 4
    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    TGOHF said:
    Yes, that decade.

    Hopefully we will do so again but the juxtaposition is unfortunate wouldn't you agree?

    Edit. - I have to go and play the organ including blowing an 8 foot horn. Have a good morning.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,104
    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    The thirties when we built hundreds of thousands of ample homes in London and the South East, rather than the rabbit hutches going up today.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084

    One day the mainstream media will unmask a Momentum member who is not from a privileged, middle class background.

    Nobility? A member of the House of Lords?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    TGOHF said:
    Yes, that decade.

    Hopefully we will do so again but the juxtaposition is unfortunate wouldn't you agree?

    Edit. - I have to go and play the organ including blowing an 8 foot horn. Have a good morning.
    Yes - although Mosley was a Labour MP before he became a wannabe dictator.

    (Why @OldKingCole as a remainer, chose to highlight that decade, I don't know...)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,388

    As leaving the EU proves not to be the cake walk they promised, the Tory Brexit loons have so far blamed:
    1. The BBC
    2. The House of Commons
    3. The House of Lords
    4. The courts
    5. The civil service
    6. The EU
    7. Remain voters
    8. The Bank of England
    9. British businesses
    10. The Irish

    Have I missed anyone out?

    I just appreciate you making clear it's the tory Brexit loons who have done that rather than the lazy, emotional histrionics of those who deliberately pretend all people on each side are exactly the same.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,258
    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    We spent most of the Thirties appeasing fascists, and also a great deal of time suppressing independence movements across our colonies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,827
    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    When we recognised (despite strong Tory views to the contrary) that Britain had no future standing aside from the continent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,047
    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    Touché!
    However, one couldn't say that the thirties were, for many people, a decade the enjoyed. And I wouldn't say the fifties, because, especially as I was young then, it was a decade of hope.

    Perhap I should have just said some dimly remembered fantasy time, as Victorian derring do!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,924
    It's quite likely that every Sunday until May leaves we will have a story like this in one of the Sunday papers, so it's notable that we've already reached the fantasy of JRM as Chancellor at the Treacherous Treasury.

    How much more outlandish can the proposed new Cabinets become?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    We spent most of the Thirties appeasing fascists, and also a great deal of time suppressing independence movements across our colonies.
    Nobody's perfect :smiley:

    (But we got there in the end: as they say about our American cousin - a day late and a dollar short)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Could Hunt lead this Tory party? It's moved and is moving away from him. He would be a weak, lousy pm if he could never count on the support of his own party.

    Your best bet might be to preempt the drift and elevate the most sensible Brexiteer now.

    Who is the most sensible Brexiteer?

    When Theresa May formed her first Cabinet I would have said that David Davis was that individual, but my opinion of the master negotiator has rather declined.

    Michael Gove has, to my surprise, said some positive things as Environment Secretary, but I'd never be able to describe the Tory Maoist as sensible.
    David Davis was the only Brexiteer that tried to make the project work. He failed, as was inevitable.

    I give him some kudos.

    What you can say for Davis is that he has admitted that he campaigned to leave the EU without knowing how it works while being wrong about the UK’s options after a Leave victory.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,084
    Seems like Charles fancies a return to the 1930s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,612

    It's quite likely that every Sunday until May leaves we will have a story like this in one of the Sunday papers, so it's notable that we've already reached the fantasy of JRM as Chancellor at the Treacherous Treasury.

    How much more outlandish can the proposed new Cabinets become?

    One that has Dominic Grieve in it?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,052
    Whoever wins is going to need enough MP support to make it to the final 2.
    That means I suspect they will need at least some support from both Remain and Leaver MPs.

    Therefore I wonder if we will see split tickets rather than Dream Teams.
    Hunt & Gove vs. Johnson & Rudd vs. Williamson & Leadsom perhaps...
    Others will have a better guess as to the combinations...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    When we recognised (despite strong Tory views to the contrary) that Britain had no future standing aside from the continent.
    Sure - we will always be involved in Europe: as a friend, partner and guardian. That doesn't involve merging into a political union.
  • chloechloe Posts: 203

    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Could Hunt lead this Tory party? It's moved and is moving away from him. He would be a weak, lousy pm if he could never count on the support of his own party.

    Your best bet might be to preempt the drift and elevate the most sensible Brexiteer now.

    Who is the most sensible Brexiteer?

    When Theresa May formed her first Cabinet I would have said that David Davis was that individual, but my opinion of the master negotiator has rather declined.

    Michael Gove has, to my surprise, said some positive things as Environment Secretary, but I'd never be able to describe the Tory Maoist as sensible.
    David Davis was the only Brexiteer that tried to make the project work. He failed, as was inevitable.

    I give him some kudos.

    What you can say for Davis is that he has admitted that he campaigned to leave the EU without knowing how it works while being wrong about the UK’s options after a Leave victory.

    All Boris has done is be disloyal and prepare his bid for the leadership.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,345
    edited February 4
    Interesting - being in 'a' Customs Union would mean the EU could sell access to our market to who ever they liked, without any input - or reciprocal benefit for us:

    That would mean for instance that in the EU/Japan trade deal, which is currently being negotiated, Turkey would apply the reduced tariffs on Japanese imports but would not be party to the deal to reciprocally reduce tariffs on exports to Japan

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/03/experience-tells-britain-needs-leave-customs-union/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441
    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Charles fancies a return to the 1930s.

    Not really. As @OldKingCole says, it was a difficult time for many.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,494

    It's quite likely that every Sunday until May leaves we will have a story like this in one of the Sunday papers, so it's notable that we've already reached the fantasy of JRM as Chancellor at the Treacherous Treasury.

    How much more outlandish can the proposed new Cabinets become?

    One that has Dominic Grieve in it?
    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,328
    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Charles fancies a return to the 1930s.

    As an Arsenal supporter, I'm all in favour of a return to the 30s.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    TGOHF said:
    Yes, that decade.

    Hopefully we will do so again but the juxtaposition is unfortunate wouldn't you agree?

    Edit. - I have to go and play the organ including blowing an 8 foot horn. Have a good morning.
    Yes - although Mosley was a Labour MP before he became a wannabe dictator.

    (Why @OldKingCole as a remainer, chose to highlight that decade, I don't know...)
    Yes Mosley was a Labour MP for a while, but he was actually elected as a Conservative. Not sure either fact is particularly relevant to the debate, but I wonder why you would mention one and not the other?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,258

    One day the mainstream media will unmask a Momentum member who is not from a privileged, middle class background.

    Is there any evidence that the protesters were in Momentum? I thought that they were freelance Anti-Fascists.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    The whole thing's a nightmare and, I suspect, making us something of a laughing stock around the world.
    The nation that had it all and threw it away to go back to the thirties.

    The thirties being when we rejected the fascist philosophies that underpinned governments in other European countries? The thirties being when we stood firm for individual liberties and against a centralising force in Europe?
    TGOHF said:
    Yes, that decade.

    Hopefully we will do so again but the juxtaposition is unfortunate wouldn't you agree?

    Edit. - I have to go and play the organ including blowing an 8 foot horn. Have a good morning.
    Yes - although Mosley was a Labour MP before he became a wannabe dictator.

    (Why @OldKingCole as a remainer, chose to highlight that decade, I don't know...)
    Yes Mosley was a Labour MP for a while, but he was actually elected as a Conservative. Not sure either fact is particularly relevant to the debate, but I wonder why you would mention one and not the other?
    Because I didn't know...

    According to wiki he was originally elected in 1918 as a Tory at the age of 21, but by 1922 (it doesn't say when) he had resigned the whip and successfully defended his seat as an independent against the Tories in 1922 and 1923.He joined Labour in March 1924, was elected as a Labour MP in 1926, and was a Labour Cabinet Minister in 1929-31.

    Based on that it seems fair to characterise him as a Labour politician despite his youthful folly
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,258
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Charles fancies a return to the 1930s.

    Not really. As @OldKingCole says, it was a difficult time for many.
    It was a mixed picture!

    After 1932, with Neville Chamberlain as CoE we had one of the fastest growing economies in the world including cutting edge automotive, aircraft and telecommunications. The NE was grim but Midlands and SE were booming with low unemployment. Foreign and Colonial policy wasn't great, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,709
    edited February 4

    It's quite likely that every Sunday until May leaves we will have a story like this in one of the Sunday papers, so it's notable that we've already reached the fantasy of JRM as Chancellor at the Treacherous Treasury.

    How much more outlandish can the proposed new Cabinets become?

    One that has Dominic Grieve in it?
    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    I think the members might not go along with that one. (Sample size:1)
This discussion has been closed.