May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Does anyone care whether the EU charges a 3% tariff on Peruvian guano and whether we should keep that tariff or reduce it to 2%? The question is a technical one. How much are we likely to change the tariff schedule in practice? I'm not an expert but there are people that can work it out. If we don't expect to change tariffs very much we should stay in the EU customs union for the benefits of it. If we expect big changes we need to be out of the Customs Union, but it will come with a big price tag in terms of friction with our major trading partner and the partial retention of third party deals that we already have through the EU.
Bear in mind, third parties have opinions too. If we reduce our Peruvian guano tariff, it will impact arrangements we have with, say, Korea. Those third parties don't care a bean about our "independent trade policy", but they have existing arrangements they want locked in and, beyond those, take more from us and give us less if the opportunity arises.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Being in *The* Customs Union means one is unable to run ones own trade policy and negotiate ones own trade deals. Whether this applies to every customs union is debatable but certainly Turkey - whi are in *a* customs union with the EU but not in *The* Customs Union are not able to make their own trade deals.
My understand was Turkey *can* make other deals but *hasn’t*
I am also keen to understand if brexiters are happy for the government to pay my custom duties to sell to Europe as they offered to Nissan. I estimate that this will wipe out fully my extortionate business rates. Maybe they just get rid of this tax for manufacturers.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Mr. Bolger, I agree. As well as the terms of a deal itself, the consequences on domestic politics must be considered.
Half-in, half-out, with the price of membership but lacking the rights of either membership or independence is a recipe to turn the polarised political situation into trench warfare.
Edited extra bit: Mr. 86, any thoughts on that?
Not really, but if you weren’t enamoured with Putin, abstaining would seem like a sensible course of action (in terms of politics, it might not be in the individual’s best interests!).
As a general principle, if a pol was happy to fix the result wouldn't they also be happy to fix the turnout figs if they thought it mattered?
Not for a moment am I suggesting that that nice Mr Putin would do either.
Can any brexiter on here explain the trade deal that they would want the uk to make and how it would make them personally richer. As with the boss of Astra Zeneca I can see directly how leaving the MDR European medical device regulation will cost me money. My question is who pays for this. Will the government subsidise my extra costs or will I have to put up my prices to the NHS to cover them? So many questions so few answers.
As for new trade deals I am at a loss to think of one my company needs. Our devices are too expensive mostly for India and China and being under USA fda direct control scares me.
My personal view is it makes sense to stay in the EMA and pay a contribution to the costs (even if at a premium rate although that seems a little silly)
@MatthewOToole2: Next time a minister uses the Norway/Swed border comparison 're Ireland can the interviewer remind them 1) Norway is in the single market and 2) much more imortantly, there is no region of Norway named 'Western Sweden' whose citizens have a treaty right to Sweden citizenship
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
There is a good thread (contradiction in terms?) on this by Nick Gutteridge.
A form of customs arrangement might work - and it is where I think we'll end up, too - but it needs very carrrul construction to prevent, for example, the EU signing a trade deal which would include us as a destination importer but not include us as an exporter...
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
I am also keen to understand if brexiters are happy for the government to pay my custom duties to sell to Europe as they offered to Nissan. I estimate that this will wipe out fully my extortionate business rates. Maybe they just get rid of this tax for manufacturers.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Customs duties are paid by recipients, not exporters.
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
It doesn't matter. The PB Leavers have always been at war with the EU.
So what are everyone's plans for B-Day next March? (If it happens). I imagine for the site's Leavers it will be autoerotic asphyxiation followed by a meat pie. Mrs DA wants to go on a cruise next year and I definitely don't but I might relent so I'm not around for the Final Victory when JRM rides a dragon down the Mall.
I have decided not to go on a European cruise next year but visit my family in Canada because according to remainers there will be no European flights, the ports will be deadlocked, we will suffer famine style food shortages, and mass unemployment and unrest post 29th March. My passport is due to renew next year but I will be renewing it in the Autumn and will probably never have a blue passport and am not the least bit bothered either way
TM has issued a no 10 statement this morning that we are leaving the customs union so she has nailed her colours to the mast and maybe, for once, is leading on the subject
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
There is a good thread (contradiction in terms?) on this by Nick Gutteridge.
A form of customs arrangement might work - and it is where I think we'll end up, too - but it needs very carrrul construction to prevent, for example, the EU signing a trade deal which would include us as a destination importer but not include us as an exporter...
It's up to the third parties, and not the EU in absolute terms, whether that happens. To an extent it can happen anyway, whether we are in the Customs Union or not. People will take advantage of situations. Our best chance is to persuade the EU to act on our behalf by applying THEIR influence on the third parties. It's a goodwill thing and goodwill comes with obligations on us.
Who would have predicted this? Being part of a trading bloc allows you to make better FTAs than if you are on your own. Another Brexit delusion exposed.
"Britain is facing the prospect of making painful trade concessions to South Korea in order to ensure business continuity during the Brexit transition period, trade policy experts and business groups have warned"
I am also keen to understand if brexiters are happy for the government to pay my custom duties to sell to Europe as they offered to Nissan. I estimate that this will wipe out fully my extortionate business rates. Maybe they just get rid of this tax for manufacturers.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Customs duties are paid by recipients, not exporters.
Aren't they paid by the exporters if they have to cut their prices to remain competitive?
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
A possible solution would be to do the announcement in Russian which lacks both the definite and indefinite article. People could then choose whichever interpretation least chafed their glans.
So what are everyone's plans for B-Day next March? (If it happens). I imagine for the site's Leavers it will be autoerotic asphyxiation followed by a meat pie. Mrs DA wants to go on a cruise next year and I definitely don't but I might relent so I'm not around for the Final Victory when JRM rides a dragon down the Mall.
I thought you’d never ask!
Imagine a hall with high ceilings. The walls are decorated with giant portraits of Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The table in the centre is bedecked with home- or Empire-grown produce, all to be washed down with Nyetimber. At the stroke of 11pm, the assembled throw their maroon EU passports into the bonfire, where burn effigies of Philip II, Louis XIV, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler and Jean-Claude Juncker. The evening closes with a stirring rendition of Rule Britannia.
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
A possible solution would be to do the announcement in Russian which lacks both the definite and indefinite article. People could then choose whichever interpretation least chafed their glans.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
That piece you laud was pseudo-Thatcherite claptrap. Basically, it was the clarion call to become a Singapore-like state with low wages, low regulations and low taxes all justified in the name of "global competition". For the vast majority, it would mean declining living standards and poorer conditions with employment rights sacrificed on the altar of global competitiveness as well.
The other aspect would be continuing immigration justified (again) by the rationale of needing to compete in the global market by continuing to reduce costs. The Prime Minister famously said workers and employment rights were only guaranteed "under her leadership". One can imagine a Johnson, Gove or a Rees-Mogg abandoning them in five minutes.
While the world's wealthy would be welcomed with open arms and an advantageous tax regimen, the rest of us would be much worse off.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I think the idea we may be worse off is not an argument remain are winning, but it is understandable that they should play that card
So what are everyone's plans for B-Day next March? (If it happens). I imagine for the site's Leavers it will be autoerotic asphyxiation followed by a meat pie. Mrs DA wants to go on a cruise next year and I definitely don't but I might relent so I'm not around for the Final Victory when JRM rides a dragon down the Mall.
I thought you’d never ask!
Imagine a hall with high ceilings. The walls are decorated with giant portraits of Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The table in the centre is bedecked with home- or Empire-grown produce, all to be washed down with Nyetimber. At the stroke of 11pm, the assembled throw their maroon EU passports into the bonfire, where burn effigies of Philip II, Louis XIV, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler and Jean-Claude Juncker. The evening closes with a stirring rendition of Rule Britannia.
I am also keen to understand if brexiters are happy for the government to pay my custom duties to sell to Europe as they offered to Nissan. I estimate that this will wipe out fully my extortionate business rates. Maybe they just get rid of this tax for manufacturers.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Are you sure the UK government have offered to pay Nissan's customs duties? That's an absolute WTO no-no. The EU will slap countervailing duties on us in a heartbeat.
DEFRA reckon that on the most optimistic to consumers Brexit scenario, food prices will fall at most by 1.4% (or increase by up to 4%). The effect on farm gate prices is higher. "Economists" For Brexit (ie Patrick Minford) reckon it will be 20% less because we will import from China on their food standards. So who needs civil servants to tell us this stuff, eh? Incidentally, I know China reasonably well and food costs aren't far off those here nowadays.
I am also keen to understand if brexiters are happy for the government to pay my custom duties to sell to Europe as they offered to Nissan. I estimate that this will wipe out fully my extortionate business rates. Maybe they just get rid of this tax for manufacturers.
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Customs duties are paid by recipients, not exporters.
Aren't they paid by the exporters if they have to cut their prices to remain competitive?
Exactly you need to knock off the custom duties on your price otherwise they won’t buy from you
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
That piece you laud was pseudo-Thatcherite claptrap. Basically, it was the clarion call to become a Singapore-like state with low wages, low regulations and low taxes all justified in the name of "global competition". For the vast majority, it would mean declining living standards and poorer conditions with employment rights sacrificed on the altar of global competitiveness as well.
The other aspect would be continuing immigration justified (again) by the rationale of needing to compete in the global market by continuing to reduce costs. The Prime Minister famously said workers and employment rights were only guaranteed "under her leadership". One can imagine a Johnson, Gove or a Rees-Mogg abandoning them in five minutes.
While the world's wealthy would be welcomed with open arms and an advantageous tax regimen, the rest of us would be much worse off.
Being more at the mercy of global competition was always a consequence of Brexit. I don't know why you are so surprised.
Who would have predicted this? Being part of a trading bloc allows you to make better FTAs than if you are on your own. Another Brexit delusion exposed.
"Britain is facing the prospect of making painful trade concessions to South Korea in order to ensure business continuity during the Brexit transition period, trade policy experts and business groups have warned"
Will I be hauled off to the Tower if I speculate that other countries might see our leaving the EU as weakening us and as something to be taken advantage of?
So what are everyone's plans for B-Day next March? (If it happens). I imagine for the site's Leavers it will be autoerotic asphyxiation followed by a meat pie. Mrs DA wants to go on a cruise next year and I definitely don't but I might relent so I'm not around for the Final Victory when JRM rides a dragon down the Mall.
I thought you’d never ask!
Imagine a hall with high ceilings. The walls are decorated with giant portraits of Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The table in the centre is bedecked with home- or Empire-grown produce, all to be washed down with Nyetimber. At the stroke of 11pm, the assembled throw their maroon EU passports into the bonfire, where burn effigies of Philip II, Louis XIV, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler and Jean-Claude Juncker. The evening closes with a stirring rendition of Rule Britannia.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
No I understand the wish to be independent I just don’t see why I should pay for it. If there is an economic loss it should be paid for principally by those who wanted brexit. Can we cut funding to the Nhs and pensions to pay for the economic loss not manufacturing profits?
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
A possible solution would be to do the announcement in Russian which lacks both the definite and indefinite article. People could then choose whichever interpretation least chafed their glans.
Of course wars have been fought, literally, over the lack of indefinite article in UNSCR 242.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
No I understand the wish to be independent I just don’t see why I should pay for it. If there is an economic loss it should be paid for principally by those who wanted brexit. Can we cut funding to the Nhs and pensions to pay for the economic loss not manufacturing profits?
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
It doesn't matter. The PB Leavers have always been at war with the EU.
And they will continue to be. For me, one of the worst aspects of the EU is the way people could blame it for everything. Sometimes correctly, but often on no basis. Rather than sort things out, they could just point at the EU: "See, it's their fault."
I had hoped that the vote to leave would cure this disease. Sadly, it appears that leavers are always going to blame the EU, even after we leave. It'll always be *their* fault, even if it's nothing to do with them.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I think the idea we may be worse off is not an argument remain are winning, but it is understandable that they should play that card
True. They are not winning the argument against those of, shall we say, lesser intelligence.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Does anyone care whether the EU charges a 3% tariff on Peruvian guano and whether we should keep that tariff or reduce it to 2%? The question is a technical one. How much are we likely to change the tariff schedule in practice? I'm not an expert but there are people that can work it out. If we don't expect to change tariffs very much we should stay in the EU customs union for the benefits of it. If we expect big changes we need to be out of the Customs Union, but it will come with a big price tag in terms of friction with our major trading partner and the partial retention of third party deals that we already have through the EU.
Bear in mind, third parties have opinions too. If we reduce our Peruvian guano tariff, it will impact arrangements we have with, say, Korea. Those third parties don't care a bean about our "independent trade policy", but they have existing arrangements they want locked in and, beyond those, take more from us and give us less if the opportunity arises.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
Why can't we cherry-pick? Do you aspire to Greek economic performance for the UK? What want of ambition!
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
There is a good thread (contradiction in terms?) on this by Nick Gutteridge.
A form of customs arrangement might work - and it is where I think we'll end up, too - but it needs very carrrul construction to prevent, for example, the EU signing a trade deal which would include us as a destination importer but not include us as an exporter...
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
My China days are long past, but I'm sure there are enough micro-economies with "China" to want absolutely anything and everything - ask the Far East sales director of Rolls-Royce.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Not even that - but "hokey already proved wrong predictions of economics" is the only basis of the remainer case.
That and persuading us we need to be ruled by unelected Belgians.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I think the idea we may be worse off is not an argument remain are winning, but it is understandable that they should play that card
True. They are not winning the argument against those of, shall we say, lesser intelligence.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
It also exposes the much touted lie that if we were outside the EU we could do more trade with China, etc.
So what are everyone's plans for B-Day next March? (If it happens). I imagine for the site's Leavers it will be autoerotic asphyxiation followed by a meat pie. Mrs DA wants to go on a cruise next year and I definitely don't but I might relent so I'm not around for the Final Victory when JRM rides a dragon down the Mall.
As usual I shall be celebrating the (558th) anniversary of the Battle of Towton.
When a Yorkshireman gave the French (and Lancastrians) a real hiding.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Does anyone care whether the EU charges a 3% tariff on Peruvian guano and whether we should keep that tariff or reduce it to 2%? The question is a technical one. How much are we likely to change the tariff schedule in practice? I'm not an expert but there are people that can work it out. If we don't expect to change tariffs very much we should stay in the EU customs union for the benefits of it. If we expect big changes we need to be out of the Customs Union, but it will come with a big price tag in terms of friction with our major trading partner and the partial retention of third party deals that we already have through the EU.
Bear in mind, third parties have opinions too. If we reduce our Peruvian guano tariff, it will impact arrangements we have with, say, Korea. Those third parties don't care a bean about our "independent trade policy", but they have existing arrangements they want locked in and, beyond those, take more from us and give us less if the opportunity arises.
Not an answer
Suit yourself. Whether leaving the customs union has advantages depends on whether we significantly change our tariffs. A customs union is simply a commitment to have a common set of tariffs. As with any standardisation question, it's only worth being non-standard if you deviate substantially. Being slightly deviant isn't worth the cost of being non-standard.
Edit and that brings us back to my original point. How much do we care about how much duty is payable on product X from country Y? Would we want to change it as it also affects countries A, B, C, D all of whom aim to extract the most concessions from us.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
No I understand the wish to be independent I just don’t see why I should pay for it. If there is an economic loss it should be paid for principally by those who wanted brexit. Can we cut funding to the Nhs and pensions to pay for the economic loss not manufacturing profits?
Nature of democracy inn’it. There’s lots of government spending I don’t like but I don’t get to opt in and out at will
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I think the idea we may be worse off is not an argument remain are winning, but it is understandable that they should play that card
True. They are not winning the argument against those of, shall we say, lesser intelligence.
"Good morning, I have decided to make this statement given the huge, unhealthy, and ongoing speculation that has arisen around the issue of Brexit.
"We, the British people, voted to leave the EU and that is what we will do. Although I see a great and prosperous future for the UK outside the European Union, there is no doubt that there will be some dislocation and interruptions to the way we do things; this is no surprise, we have been an EU member for 40 years and many EU processes are embedded into ours.
"As such, may I make a plea for tolerance and understanding while we move to create the best deal we are able. You must know that it is not our intention to place obstacles in the way of British trade, but it may be that obstacles arise; it is not our intention to increase the administrative burden on businesses, but there may be different processes to undergo; and finally, it is not our intention to make the UK poorer, but we must acknowledge that Brexit is unknown, and it may be that we need to spend now in order to reap in the future.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Does anyone care whether the EU charges a 3% tariff on Peruvian guano and whether we should keep that tariff or reduce it to 2%? The question is a technical one. How much are we likely to change the tariff schedule in practice? I'm not an expert but there are people that can work it out. If we don't expect to change tariffs very much we should stay in the EU customs union for the benefits of it. If we expect big changes we need to be out of the Customs Union, but it will come with a big price tag in terms of friction with our major trading partner and the partial retention of third party deals that we already have through the EU.
Bear in mind, third parties have opinions too. If we reduce our Peruvian guano tariff, it will impact arrangements we have with, say, Korea. Those third parties don't care a bean about our "independent trade policy", but they have existing arrangements they want locked in and, beyond those, take more from us and give us less if the opportunity arises.
Not an answer
Suit yourself. Whether leaving the customs union has advantages depends on whether we significantly change our tariffs. A customs union is simply a commitment to have a common set of tariffs. As with any standardisation question, it's only worth being non-standard if you deviate substantially. Being slightly deviant isn't worth the cost of being non-standard.
Edit and that brings us back to my original point. How much do we care about how much duty is payable on product X from country Y? Would we want to change it as it also affects countries A, B, C, D all of whom aim to extract the most concessions from us.
It often descends into metric martyrs-style bloody-mindedness for the sake of it. Most of the people banging on about trade deals aren't really interested in trade policy, but just see it as a symbol of national sovereignty.
"Theresa May needs to decide what the point of her premiership is". That's easy. She wants to get through to March 29 next year without everything going tits up, so she can declare "Brexit Mission Accomplished". Absolutely everything is subsumed into surviving the next 14 months, including the future of our country.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
My China days are long past, but I'm sure there are enough micro-economies with "China" to want absolutely anything and everything - ask the Far East sales director of Rolls-Royce.
Exactly my point: Germany is a premium priced mass market trade economy; the UK is a ultra premium priced niche market trade ecomy with a mass market service economy.
I’m not surprised that, currently, Germany is a bigger exporter
But I assume that HSBC or StanChart does more business in China than Deutsche or Coba.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Does anyone care whether the EU charges a 3% tariff on Peruvian guano and whether we should keep that tariff or reduce it to 2%? The question is a technical one. How much are we likely to change the tariff schedule in practice? I'm not an expert but there are people that can work it out. If we don't expect to change tariffs very much we should stay in the EU customs union for the benefits of it. If we expect big changes we need to be out of the Customs Union, but it will come with a big price tag in terms of friction with our major trading partner and the partial retention of third party deals that we already have through the EU.
Bear in mind, third parties have opinions too. If we reduce our Peruvian guano tariff, it will impact arrangements we have with, say, Korea. Those third parties don't care a bean about our "independent trade policy", but they have existing arrangements they want locked in and, beyond those, take more from us and give us less if the opportunity arises.
Not an answer
Suit yourself. Whether leaving the customs union has advantages depends on whether we significantly change our tariffs. A customs union is simply a commitment to have a common set of tariffs. As with any standardisation question, it's only worth being non-standard if you deviate substantially. Being slightly deviant isn't worth the cost of being non-standard.
Edit and that brings us back to my original point. How much do we care about how much duty is payable on product X from country Y? Would we want to change it as it also affects countries A, B, C, D all of whom aim to extract the most concessions from us.
It matters because it tends to lead to a de liberalisation of trade, as the Australians found out when they did a deal with the USA. They had been liberalising trade with Asia, but the gravity of the US model meant that they stopped creating new avenues, and simply diverted a lot of their attention to the USA. Generally, tariffs are quite low. The real issue is NTBs, which actually create more costs in many cases (apart from where the EU takes particularly protectionist action such as in commercial vehicles).
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
g.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Remainer QE I :
"There is no point in Sir Francis Drake wasting money going off round the world on his ship - his time would be better spent importing Flemish goods". And such a trip might upset the Pope."
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
It also exposes the much touted lie that if we were outside the EU we could do more trade with China, etc.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
My China days are long past, but I'm sure there are enough micro-economies with "China" to want absolutely anything and everything - ask the Far East sales director of Rolls-Royce.
Exactly my point: Germany is a premium priced mass market trade economy; the UK is a ultra premium priced niche market trade ecomy with a mass market service economy
And yet the direction of its future trade policy has been captured by Tate and Lyle. This is not the new growth opportunity you're looking for.
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
Yesterday's Telegraph:
That would mean for instance that in the EU/Japan trade deal, which is currently being negotiated, Turkey would apply the reduced tariffs on Japanese imports but would not be party to the deal to reciprocally reduce tariffs on exports to Japan
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
Yesterday's Telegraph:
That would mean for instance that in the EU/Japan trade deal, which is currently being negotiated, Turkey would apply the reduced tariffs on Japanese imports but would not be party to the deal to reciprocally reduce tariffs on exports to Japan
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
I’ve worked with an investor who makes all there decisions based on an assumption that they will hold assets for eternity...
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Evers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
I’ve worked with an investor who makes all there decisions based on an assumption that they will hold assets for eternity...
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
The investor would not undertake an NPV-negative project, though, would he/she?
May rules out any customs union. Has she spoken to HMRC? They state their new customs system which goes live early next year can cope with just 60% of WTO transactions. They also state it would take them 5 years to be ready to cope with WTO.
May will continue to peddle this a/the Customs Union bullshit right up the second she gets ejected from No. 10. Which might be by the weekend on current form.
At which point, if the news is correct,, she will be succeeded by someone who also says we will leave the Customs Union. Not sure what point you are trying to make.
No, that'll be the Nixon in China moment when the new leader spends some of their political capital accepting the inevitable - which May would do in an instant were her political capital not already completely expended.
I am afraid you have seriously misjudged the mood if you think that will be the outcome.
Can you tell me what the disadvantages of being in”a” (not the) Customs Union are?
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Won't there be massive chaos and delays at the ports without some form of customs union?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
That’s why I asked the question!
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
Yesterday's Telegraph:
That would mean for instance that in the EU/Japan trade deal, which is currently being negotiated, Turkey would apply the reduced tariffs on Japanese imports but would not be party to the deal to reciprocally reduce tariffs on exports to Japan
Incidentally, I know China reasonably well and food costs aren't far off those here nowadays.
And [Chinese food] quality standards?
A big issue. It's partly the reason why food is expensive in China relative to living standards. You have to pay a big premium to have some confidence that the food is safe to eat. Whereas if you have rigorous regulation (what Economists for Free Trade and Labour Leave call "the shackles of the EU") you can be reasonably assured that the stuff you buy in Aldi is as safe to eat as what you get from Waitrose and can make a more informed quality/price decision.
Remarkable to see the Leavers on the site making great claims about Remainers having lost the argument, even as the polls show that the public remain completely unconvinced that the decision to leave the EU was the right one. They should stop talking to each other and start listening to the public.
And yet very few want to overturn it. Because they accept that Remainers lost.
You'd have no problem winning a 3rd referendum then
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Another superficially attractive Leave argument that evaporates on contact with reality.
It is certainly true in business that there have been disruptive events, and it has been beneficial to invest in those. Manufacturers of cable driven steam shovels couldn't see a need for small hydraulic diggers and died out, for example.
The issue here of course is not that we are transferring to a new technology, or great new opportunity.
What we are talking about doing is ripping up the best free trade agreement in history, so we can replace it with a much worse agreement to sell the same things to the same people in the same markets.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Evers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
I’ve worked with an investor who makes all there decisions based on an assumption that they will hold assets for eternity...
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
The investor would not undertake an NPV-negative project, though, would he/she?
They have forgone NPV-positive projects (specifically this is the Diocese of London which refuses to sell freeholds inside the City)
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
It doesn't matter. The PB Leavers have always been at war with the EU.
And they will continue to be. For me, one of the worst aspects of the EU is the way people could blame it for everything. Sometimes correctly, but often on no basis. Rather than sort things out, they could just point at the EU: "See, it's their fault."
I had hoped that the vote to leave would cure this disease. Sadly, it appears that leavers are always going to blame the EU, even after we leave. It'll always be *their* fault, even if it's nothing to do with them.
The EU provokes strong emotions amongst many in Britain.
Whilst meaningless/cosmetic to some (or meaningful, but welcome, to others), EU flags on numberplates, driving licences, public buildings, public projects, beaches and town signs were viewed as a creeping attack on British identity.
This isn't entirely without merit, as part of the EU federalisation project is to break down or qualify national identities within the context of a broader European one.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
Why can't we cherry-pick? Do you aspire to Greek economic performance for the UK? What want of ambition!
Because Germany and Greece share an exchamge rate. We can't copy their model without being in a currency union with someone as weak as Greece, which is obviously a stupid idea.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
What we are talking about doing is ripping up the best free trade agreement in German-Franco history, .
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
Why can't we cherry-pick? Do you aspire to Greek economic performance for the UK? What want of ambition!
Because Germany and Greece share an exchamge rate. We can't copy their model without being in a currency union with someone as weak as Greece, which is obviously a stupid idea.
If you think that's their model, we're beating Germany at their own game. The Pound has lost value against the Euro since its inception, from 1.40 in 1999 to 1.13 today.
Suit yourself. Whether leaving the customs union has advantages depends on whether we significantly change our tariffs. A customs union is simply a commitment to have a common set of tariffs. As with any standardisation question, it's only worth being non-standard if you deviate substantially. Being slightly deviant isn't worth the cost of being non-standard.
Edit and that brings us back to my original point. How much do we care about how much duty is payable on product X from country Y? Would we want to change it as it also affects countries A, B, C, D all of whom aim to extract the most concessions from us.
It matters because it tends to lead to a de liberalisation of trade, as the Australians found out when they did a deal with the USA. They had been liberalising trade with Asia, but the gravity of the US model meant that they stopped creating new avenues, and simply diverted a lot of their attention to the USA. Generally, tariffs are quite low. The real issue is NTBs, which actually create more costs in many cases (apart from where the EU takes particularly protectionist action such as in commercial vehicles).
The tariff issue does matter. Trade policy is a tedious mind-numbing business in many dimensions where you are working with partners whose aim is to extract what they can out of you and wear you down. The question of the Customs Union is a simple one however. How much will you vary duties from the standard EU ones? A lot - you need to leave. None or possibly a medium amount - you should stay. As the government is committed to keeping tariffs on food to protect farmers and that is one of the few areas where the EU is somewhat protectionist on tariffs, they have answered the question.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really care about symbols and are somewhat superficial*, while Remainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR symbols.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go and check most Remain-dominant politics internet forums for the two weeks after the interim deal was struck. It was all "so we will be a vassal state taking rules without voting rights - I hate Tories". Unreconciled Remainers hate Brexit in all its forms. They will argue to soften and soften it, and then, should a soft deal be signed, will decry it for being worse than EU membership and giving none of the benefits of leaving.
Any Brexit outcome is a downgrade on what we had before. It's what it is. If you stop membership of an organisation, you lose the benefits of membership. It's how membership organisations keep going. We are leaving the EU because we voted to do so. Whether it actually is a good thing is neither here nor there.
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I think the idea we may be worse off is not an argument remain are winning, but it is understandable that they should play that card
True. They are not winning the argument against those of, shall we say, lesser intelligence.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
Why can't we cherry-pick? Do you aspire to Greek economic performance for the UK? What want of ambition!
Because Germany and Greece share an exchamge rate. We can't copy their model without being in a currency union with someone as weak as Greece, which is obviously a stupid idea.
If you think that's their model, we're beating Germany at their own game. The Pound has lost value against the Euro since its inception, from 1.40 in 1999 to 1.13 today.
Quite - if we had joined or join the Euro and the USofE project as you suggest we would be in a significantly worse position.
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
It doesn't matter. The PB Leavers have always been at war with the EU.
And they will continue to be. For me, one of the worst aspects of the EU is the way people could blame it for everything. Sometimes correctly, but often on no basis. Rather than sort things out, they could just point at the EU: "See, it's their fault."
I had hoped that the vote to leave would cure this disease. Sadly, it appears that leavers are always going to blame the EU, even after we leave. It'll always be *their* fault, even if it's nothing to do with them.
The EU provokes strong emotions amongst many in Britain.
Whilst meaningless/cosmetic to some (or meaningful, but welcome, to others), EU flags on numberplates, driving licences, public buildings, public projects, beaches and town signs were viewed as a creeping attack on British identity.
This isn't entirely without merit, as part of the EU federalisation project is to break down or qualify national identities within the context of a broader European one.
Is British identity unusually vulnerable (and hence overly sensitive to the encroachment of the EU) because it is itself a multinational construct?
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers really careRemainers want the status quo to continue as much as possible and are prepared to sacrifice THEIR do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Even if it satisfied only 20% of leavers, that would probably mean the at least grudging support of a significant majority of the population - hence the increasing shrillness of the true believers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any Brexit...
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
I’ve worked with an investor who makes all there decisions based on an assumption that they will hold assets for eternity...
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
Such a perspective tends to be attractive only to those who have sufficient wealth not to worry about the present.
What we are talking about doing is ripping up the best free trade agreement in history, so we can replace it with a much worse agreement to sell the same things to the same people in the same markets.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
Looking at Germany is cherry picking one part of a currency union. It would be like just looking at London. Germany's export strength is due to it benefitting from export weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone dragging diwn its exchange rate.
Why can't we cherry-pick? Do you aspire to Greek economic performance for the UK? What want of ambition!
Because Germany and Greece share an exchamge rate. We can't copy their model without being in a currency union with someone as weak as Greece, which is obviously a stupid idea.
If you think that's their model, we're beating Germany at their own game. The Pound has lost value against the Euro since its inception, from 1.40 in 1999 to 1.13 today.
Quite - if we had joined or join the Euro and the USofE project as you suggest we would be in a significantly worse position.
You think we couldn't survive with a strong currency? Don't you believe in Britain?
Brexit in Name Only -which I think has been shortened to Brino not Bino is, notwithstanding the cartoons, an effective slogan with sums up what Remoaners have been trying to do ever since the referendum result : subvert the will of the People by exiting the EU in theory but keeping us in practice totally under the control of a foreign superstate.
How could we be an independent country if we remained in the Single Market or Customs Union.
If we left the EU on the basis of Brino, then the latter would be the rallying cry for those democrats who wanted to appeal to voters that the referendum result had been betrayed. It would be like checking out of a hotel but still receive bills in the post for the room and not being allowed to check into another hotel.
Will there be a leadership challenge to May this week? Probably not. The Sun story of the government minister who was going to denounce May didnt happen.
There might well at some point be a vote of confidence triggered by 48 Mps, but I dont think most Tory MPs, even though they dont have confidence in May,would actually vote against her at the moment. They want to wait until Brexit is over.
What larks. But can we be clear: is it a customers union that is now ruled out or the Customer Union? I ask because the indefinite-article version was perfectly acceptable to the PB Leavers only last week.
It doesn't matter. The PB Leavers have always been at war with the EU.
And they will continue to be. For me, one of the worst aspects of the EU is the way people could blame it for everything. Sometimes correctly, but often on no basis. Rather than sort things out, they could just point at the EU: "See, it's their fault."
I had hoped that the vote to leave would cure this disease. Sadly, it appears that leavers are always going to blame the EU, even after we leave. It'll always be *their* fault, even if it's nothing to do with them.
The EU provokes strong emotions amongst many in Britain.
Whilst meaningless/cosmetic to some (or meaningful, but welcome, to others), EU flags on numberplates, driving licences, public buildings, public projects, beaches and town signs were viewed as a creeping attack on British identity.
This isn't entirely without merit, as part of the EU federalisation project is to break down or qualify national identities within the context of a broader European one.
"English identity"
Brexit cannot be understood without reference to English nationalism - the kind that equates the UK with England and vice versa. Obviously, there were other reasons for the vote, but part of it at least was a cry from the England that was seeing its old assumptions about the UK and how it works being torn asunder.
Third Brexit thread in a row! BINO is the only form of Brexit that will sort of work, on the basis that Leavers Brexit will be damaging.
That's right. BINO is probably enough to satisfy 90% of leavers.
Evers.
That's clearly not true. Remainers have already attacked the transition soft Brexit for being far worse than EU membership, so clearly they would be unsatisfied with a "BINO" that is harder than EEA membership.
Citation required.
Go afits of leaving.
Any
Only if you purely look at economics. That’s what Remainers got wrong
Blimmin heck, make up your mind: will there be a Brexit bonus, or is the cost of Brexit a price worth paying?
I’ve always been consistent
A cost and it's worth it?
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
An analogy is redeploying capital from a mature business to a new growth opportunity. There’s a short term opportunity cost (not an absolute cost) but long term we will be better off (assuming we execute effectively). When the cross over is I don’t know and it doesn’t matter - I tend to think on a multi-generational basis
Sadly for us, Charles, you know what happens in the long run.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
I’ve worked with an investor who makes all there decisions based on an assumption that they will hold assets for eternity...
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
The investor would not undertake an NPV-negative project, though, would he/she?
They have forgone NPV-positive projects (specifically this is the Diocese of London which refuses to sell freeholds inside the City)
That's fine. But they would not undertake an NPV-negative one.
That is what we are talking about here. A future benefit means nothing if today's value is negative. As they say, and as of course you know, when discussing discounting - you can't get to there from here.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
This line always irritates because it is so facile. At the current stage of Chinese development they need machine tools and capital goods - areas that Germany specialises in. They don’t need as much of the higher value product/services that the UK is good at
It also exposes the much touted lie that if we were outside the EU we could do more trade with China, etc.
Comments
It seems that “a” customs union is a sensible place to end up (as I advocated 2 years ago) and trying to understand why it has been rejected
There was a very good comment yesterday by exiled in Scotland who discussed the need to move from a consumer country to a producer country. I have a feeling that many other brexiters are not producers but consumers who would happily trash the country’s production so they can buy cheaper fruit from South America.
Not for a moment am I suggesting that that nice Mr Putin would do either.
A form of customs arrangement might work - and it is where I think we'll end up, too - but it needs very carrrul construction to prevent, for example, the EU signing a trade deal which would include us as a destination importer but not include us as an exporter...
TM has issued a no 10 statement this morning that we are leaving the customs union so she has nailed her colours to the mast and maybe, for once, is leading on the subject
"Britain is facing the prospect of making painful trade concessions to South Korea in order to ensure business continuity during the Brexit transition period, trade policy experts and business groups have warned"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/02/04/fears-grow-south-korea-playing-hardball-uk-seeks-roll-brexit/
Imagine a hall with high ceilings. The walls are decorated with giant portraits of Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The table in the centre is bedecked with home- or Empire-grown produce, all to be washed down with Nyetimber. At the stroke of 11pm, the assembled throw their maroon EU passports into the bonfire, where burn effigies of Philip II, Louis XIV, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler and Jean-Claude Juncker. The evening closes with a stirring rendition of Rule Britannia.
Would you like to come?
The other aspect would be continuing immigration justified (again) by the rationale of needing to compete in the global market by continuing to reduce costs. The Prime Minister famously said workers and employment rights were only guaranteed "under her leadership". One can imagine a Johnson, Gove or a Rees-Mogg abandoning them in five minutes.
While the world's wealthy would be welcomed with open arms and an advantageous tax regimen, the rest of us would be much worse off.
DEFRA reckon that on the most optimistic to consumers Brexit scenario, food prices will fall at most by 1.4% (or increase by up to 4%). The effect on farm gate prices is higher. "Economists" For Brexit (ie Patrick Minford) reckon it will be 20% less because we will import from China on their food standards. So who needs civil servants to tell us this stuff, eh? Incidentally, I know China reasonably well and food costs aren't far off those here nowadays.
No I understand the wish to be independent I just don’t see why I should pay for it. If there is an economic loss it should be paid for principally by those who wanted brexit. Can we cut funding to the Nhs and pensions to pay for the economic loss not manufacturing profits?
I had hoped that the vote to leave would cure this disease. Sadly, it appears that leavers are always going to blame the EU, even after we leave. It'll always be *their* fault, even if it's nothing to do with them.
Absolutely fair enough. If the government were to be as honest, then we could at least get on with it.
That and persuading us we need to be ruled by unelected Belgians.
A heady mix.
When a Yorkshireman gave the French (and Lancastrians) a real hiding.
Edit and that brings us back to my original point. How much do we care about how much duty is payable on product X from country Y? Would we want to change it as it also affects countries A, B, C, D all of whom aim to extract the most concessions from us.
"We, the British people, voted to leave the EU and that is what we will do. Although I see a great and prosperous future for the UK outside the European Union, there is no doubt that there will be some dislocation and interruptions to the way we do things; this is no surprise, we have been an EU member for 40 years and many EU processes are embedded into ours.
"As such, may I make a plea for tolerance and understanding while we move to create the best deal we are able. You must know that it is not our intention to place obstacles in the way of British trade, but it may be that obstacles arise; it is not our intention to increase the administrative burden on businesses, but there may be different processes to undergo; and finally, it is not our intention to make the UK poorer, but we must acknowledge that Brexit is unknown, and it may be that we need to spend now in order to reap in the future.
"Thank you."
*walks back into No. 10*
I’m not surprised that, currently, Germany is a bigger exporter
But I assume that HSBC or StanChart does more business in China than Deutsche or Coba.
Plus, on the more formal point, discounted to today, there is no point making a gain in XX years time if today's benefit is trivial.
"There is no point in Sir Francis Drake wasting money going off round the world on his ship - his time would be better spent importing Flemish goods". And such a trip might upset the Pope."
That would mean for instance that in the EU/Japan trade deal, which is currently being negotiated, Turkey would apply the reduced tariffs on Japanese imports but would not be party to the deal to reciprocally reduce tariffs on exports to Japan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/03/experience-tells-britain-needs-leave-customs-union/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/business/bell-pottinger-guptas-zuma-south-africa.html?emc=edit_th_180205&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=19040619
As for the long run, the individual is not important: we are all but links in a chain
It is certainly true in business that there have been disruptive events, and it has been beneficial to invest in those. Manufacturers of cable driven steam shovels couldn't see a need for small hydraulic diggers and died out, for example.
The issue here of course is not that we are transferring to a new technology, or great new opportunity.
What we are talking about doing is ripping up the best free trade agreement in history, so we can replace it with a much worse agreement to sell the same things to the same people in the same markets.
That's not a growth opportunity.
That's insanity.
Whilst meaningless/cosmetic to some (or meaningful, but welcome, to others), EU flags on numberplates, driving licences, public buildings, public projects, beaches and town signs were viewed as a creeping attack on British identity.
This isn't entirely without merit, as part of the EU federalisation project is to break down or qualify national identities within the context of a broader European one.
But we will have blue passports!!!!!!!!
How could we be an independent country if we remained in the Single Market or Customs Union.
If we left the EU on the basis of Brino, then the latter would be the rallying cry for those democrats who wanted to appeal to voters that the referendum result had been betrayed. It would be like checking out of a hotel but still receive bills in the post for the room and not being allowed to check into another hotel.
Will there be a leadership challenge to May this week? Probably not. The Sun story of the government minister who was going to denounce May didnt happen.
There might well at some point be a vote of confidence triggered by 48 Mps, but I dont think most Tory MPs, even though they dont have confidence in May,would actually vote against her at the moment. They want to wait until Brexit is over.
Brexit cannot be understood without reference to English nationalism - the kind that equates the UK with England and vice versa. Obviously, there were other reasons for the vote, but part of it at least was a cry from the England that was seeing its old assumptions about the UK and how it works being torn asunder.
That is what we are talking about here. A future benefit means nothing if today's value is negative. As they say, and as of course you know, when discussing discounting - you can't get to there from here.