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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

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    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    Cons best score since July.

    I'll just go into a dark room and scratch my head whilst trying to understand how the continual mess they are in is not having a massive negative on polls.
    Its the lack of an alternative. Obviously.
    Tony Blair would have been on 65% by now. Not joking.
    Very possibly. He was brilliant at opposition politics.
    Just a shame it was all smoke and mirrors and he turned out to.be such an atrocious PM.
    There's that damning full stop again, Richard.
    :smile:
    For some reason my phone puts in random full stops. I assume it is fat finger syndrome. :)
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    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    jayfdee said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.

    Profit taking or something more serious
    Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.

    Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
    Looks pretty widespread.
    Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.

    Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.
    I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.
    The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.
    Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.
    I though the nominal value of Cryptos was quite large. A lot depends when people bought in.
    The key thing is leverage. The more individuals have borrowed to speculate then the greater the impact onthe wider economy whe the bitcoin bubble bursts.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,594
    Scott_P said:
    Dropping faster now.

    Into headless chicken mode.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government is a remarkable mess. Tory party seems increasingly broken and unable to govern in national interest .

    Starting to think some kind of national government is going to happen.

    Commanding 40% + in the present climate indicates the public do not share your view
    Polls irrelevant. This is about having a coherent executable policy you can get through parliament. Frictionless trade outside the customs union is a fantasy today.


    Anyway we know you need to be twenty points ahead going into a campaign to scrape in as a minority.
    If the polls are irrelevant, and 13.7 million votes are irrelevant, exactly which yardstick are we using to judge the popularity of the government?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/05/brexit-tory-realists-eu-jacob-rees-mogg

    May looks like the head of a Soviet republic, formally occupying the highest office, yet taking ideological direction from a superior authority in the party. Or, even more bizarrely, Tory politics resembles revolution on the Iranian model, where the elected political leader is subordinate to a supreme spiritual leader, a role performed in this analogy by Rees-Mogg. For all of May’s obvious commitment to EU withdrawal, the Brexit ayatollahs don’t trust her to do it with the correct fundamentalist spirit.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    jayfdee said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.

    Profit taking or something more serious
    Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.

    Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
    Looks pretty widespread.
    Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.

    Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.
    I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.
    The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.
    Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.
    There has been a fair bit of venture capital money going into new crypto startups. How much of this will be seen again, if this is indeed the start of a crash? There will be individuals who have speculated beyond their ability to repay. The losses will show up in other places, and the lesson from 2008 is that ripples from one part of the financial system can rapidly spread.
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    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/05/brexit-tory-realists-eu-jacob-rees-mogg

    May looks like the head of a Soviet republic, formally occupying the highest office, yet taking ideological direction from a superior authority in the party. Or, even more bizarrely, Tory politics resembles revolution on the Iranian model, where the elected political leader is subordinate to a supreme spiritual leader, a role performed in this analogy by Rees-Mogg. For all of May’s obvious commitment to EU withdrawal, the Brexit ayatollahs don’t trust her to do it with the correct fundamentalist spirit.

    Remainers losing the argument
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    PClipp said:

    PeterC said:

    TGOHF said:

    Apart from his medieval Papist views on abortion and Brexit - can anyone name an extreme/stark JRM policy ?

    JRM policy on abortion is not "medieval Papist". While he personally supports the teaching of the Church, as do millions of others, he accepts that ending abortion rights will never command a consensus and he will not seek to impose it.
    JRM supports the teachings of the church on some issues.
    That line didn`t work for Tim Farron, did it?
    JRM is a good deal more comfortable with his beliefs than Tim Farron, and is not seeking to lead the Lib Dems.
    You mean he`s not going to be attacked by the Tory spin machine.....
    The Tory spinners clearly saw that they could drive a wedge between Tim Farron and many party members.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2018
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Dropping faster now.

    Into headless chicken mode.
    Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....

    Easy come, easy go, I guess!
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates

    Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.

    The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.

    After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
    More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.
    The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.

    If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.

    The tory client vote won't be happy, though.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,594
    calum said:
    Bouncing a bit now, algorithmic trading.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Pong said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Dropping faster now.

    Into headless chicken mode.
    Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....

    Easy come, easy go, I guess!
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates

    Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.

    The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.

    After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
    More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.
    The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.

    If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.

    The tory client vote won't be happy, though.
    Hello Pong. Weren't you the guy who argued that £/$ would go to $1.20 when I predicted $1.40?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    calum said:
    Bouncing a bit now, algorithmic trading.
    If the automatic halt to trading hasn't kicked in yet, it looks a bit chocolate fireguardy.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    Do you think Barnier came away from that meeting having ANY IDEA what Labour's real policy towards Brexit is?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,594
    Pong said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Dropping faster now.

    Into headless chicken mode.
    Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....

    Easy come, easy go, I guess!
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates

    Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.

    The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.

    After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
    More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.
    The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.

    If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.

    The tory client vote won't be happy, though.
    I have about £200k in equities, 50% FTSE, 50% Europe, and Asia. I reckon we are due a correction, but sitting still. I have nothing too speculative.

    I had a bad feeling last week when the FTSE was down each day.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    AnneJGP said:

    One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.
    Whereas the PM is over promoted.
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    Chelsea poor tonight and now down to 10
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    Do you think Barnier came away from that meeting having ANY IDEA what Labour's real policy towards Brexit is?
    If he did he's got more idea than the voters.......
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    Jonathan said:
    I lol'ed.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    AnneJGP said:

    One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.
    Whereas the PM is over promoted.
    Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.
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    Watford 1 Chelsea 0
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.
    Whereas the PM is over promoted.
    Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.
    When the choice was May or Leadsom, hard to see why TSE gets bent out of shape by the final choice the MPs made.

    Of course, if Cameron hadn't left the field of battle....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    jayfdee said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.

    Profit taking or something more serious
    Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.

    Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
    Looks pretty widespread.
    Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.

    Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.
    I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.
    The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.
    Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.
    I though the nominal value of Cryptos was quite large. A lot depends when people bought in.
    The nominal value is high but on incredibly thin volume. 17,000,000ish bitcoins mined. Bitatamp l, a major exchange, has seen a trading volume of 43,000 bitcoins in the last 24 hours - not different bitcoins, total. And that includes trades from other crypto currencies into and out of bitcoin . The amount of real money gone in is tiny in global terms.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    jayfdee said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.

    Profit taking or something more serious
    Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.

    Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
    Looks pretty widespread.
    Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.

    Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.
    I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.
    The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.
    Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.
    I don't know if this is correct, but it is certainly lucid:

    http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/07/the-fatal-mistake-crypto-investors-are-making-now/
    Thanks for the link.

    My 85-year old mother asked me what Bitcoin was the other day, a clear sign that awareness of the boom has spread very widely. Although I have a hazy idea I thought it best to say that I didn't understand it. But it does seem to me that the long-term value is more likely to be in the technology itself, rather than the actual currencies.
    The tech is shit. It is the worst solution to the problem.

    The purloin a quote: that which is good is not novel and that which is novel is not good.
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    This is going to complicate the railway nationalisation argument:

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/960612608935120897

    Oh well, I expect the twenty somethings will get what they want - nationalised railways, decades of underinvestment and strikes.....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Watford 1 Chelsea 0

    Two Chelsea defenders in the Fantasy Football team.
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    Ftse futures - 4.01
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    NEW THREAD

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.
    Whereas the PM is over promoted.
    Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.
    How was she elected. I thought she was unopposed??
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This is going to complicate the railway nationalisation argument:

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/960612608935120897

    Oh well, I expect the twenty somethings will get what they want - nationalised railways, decades of underinvestment and strikes.....

    Hurrah, the East Coast line can go back to having free WiFi throughout again.
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    Corbyn's favourite country - Venezeulans flee and refugee camps spring up across the border
This discussion has been closed.