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Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a look at the possibilities.