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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat pred

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a look at the possibilities.

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Comments

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 5
    On topic;

    Feeding random sample polls through UNS as a way to predict elections is finished. Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

    FPT;
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Dropping faster now.

    Into headless chicken mode.
    Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....

    Easy come, easy go, I guess!
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates

    Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.

    The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.

    After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
    More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.
    The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.

    If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.

    The tory client vote won't be happy, though.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037
    edited February 5
    Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
    New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
    Which means much is up in the air.
    Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
    Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,171
    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,513
    Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    Yep.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,169
    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    Yep.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42936613
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,431
    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives?

    12 years of Tory rule?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    Yep.
    LOL. Of course Gerry Adams likes Corbyn. Corbyn was a friend to the IRA, and Adams thinks a Corbyn government will lead to a United Ireland. Its the support of swing voters in Middle England that Labour needs not nasty pieces of work like Gerry Adams.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,171
    Toms said:

    Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

    Were suffragettes terrorists ?
  • Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

    Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

    I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Yorkcity said:

    Toms said:

    Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

    Were suffragettes terrorists ?
    Yes, and they put back the cause of female suffrage for years.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,089

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
    The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.
  • nielh said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
    The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.
    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,853
    edited February 5
    The final 15 opinion polls before the last election actually slightly underestimated the Tory share, with an average of 42.8% against the 43.5% they got. The pollsters' problem was underestimating Labour and overestimating UKIP and some of the other minor parties.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

    Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

    I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
    The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,513
    edited February 5
    Yorkcity said:

    Toms said:

    Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

    Were suffragettes terrorists ?
    Darn. Now I'm going to have to read it up.
    In terms of your actual direct hands on violence I expect you'd have to use a logarithmic scale to get them on the same plot as us.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115
    Yorkcity said:

    Toms said:

    Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

    Were suffragettes terrorists ?
    Some of them were.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195

    nielh said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
    The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.
    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed
    Capped at 3% I think, hence Tory Northants going bust.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,818
    edited February 5



    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

    Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,080
    stevef said:

    by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

    Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,493
    I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,178
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

    Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

    I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
    The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
    The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.
  • stodge said:



    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

    Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.

    We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

    Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

    I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
    The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
    Certainly a big incentive for the Tories to hold on until 2022!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115
    It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,493
    Sean_F said:

    It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

    I have that in mind for my next project.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,818

    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

    I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.

    What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?

    Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.
  • I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

    I asked Sam Coates if The Times would commision more polling based on the YouGov model.

    He said they would like to, but there's some technical/methodological issues to be ironed out.

    Mostly will it be accurate this far out from a general election.

    There's a feeling it is more accurate the closer we are to election day.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,818


    We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections

    And your point is ?
  • stodge said:

    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

    I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.

    What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?

    Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.
    With the greatest of respect I see no evidence of anyone having moving on
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,080
    Pong said:

    Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

    Yes. And no.

    Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.

    No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.



  • dixiedean said:

    Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
    New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
    Which means much is up in the air.
    Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
    Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

    The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
    It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
    A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?
  • stodge said:


    We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections

    And your point is ?
    Higher than most English conservative councils
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,958

    nielh said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
    The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.
    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed
    It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-14223717
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

    Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

    I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
    The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
    The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.
    Also, if the Youthquake didn't happen. wouldn't that be bad news for the Conservatives?
    Surely it would follow that therefore they did worse amongst other age groups than originally suspected?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115

    Sean_F said:

    It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

    I have that in mind for my next project.
    The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.
  • nielh said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

    Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

    So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

    The answer remains obvious.

    Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?
    The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

    Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
    The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.
    Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed
    It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-14223717
    The clue is massive
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,080
    Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

    Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
    New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
    Which means much is up in the air.
    Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
    Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

    The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
    It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
    A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?
    The solution is above trend growth. So pensioners and the employed feel better off. Projected growth figures before 2022 make that seem improbable.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,366
    viewcode said:

    Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

    Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78


    Tom Cruise is scarily good at what he does.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,428
    viewcode said:

    Pong said:

    Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

    Yes. And no.

    Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.

    No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.
    And because there is no way round the problem that Yougov can spend whatever they like, but they cannot capture a representative of the 99% of the population who would sooner amputate their own feet using only nail scissors, than be on a Yougov panel, and they cannot eliminate the problem that for the politically motivated (the other 1%) it is often rational to lie to pollsters. If there was a golden age of telephone polling, it was when receiving a phone call of any kind was a big deal, and when a chap with a BBC accent asked you your VI you stood to attention and told him the truth. That was then, this is now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297
    Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

    I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,367

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
    New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
    Which means much is up in the air.
    Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
    Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

    The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
    It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
    A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?
    The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195
    viewcode said:

    stevef said:

    by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

    Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

    Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

    Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037
    welshowl said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
    New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
    Which means much is up in the air.
    Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
    Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

    The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
    It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
    A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?
    The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.
    Thus irritating the currently employed even more...
  • tlg86 said:

    Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

    I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).

    I've fixed that link, it should work now.

    Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,820
    edited February 5
    The stock market situation is starting to look serious now.

    On topic, UNS didn't work last time because there was a big shift from class-based to age-based voting in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

    If you take the view that this shift will be long-lasting, and prompt a corresponding realignment of the parties in terms of their positioning, then the next election may well return to being relatively predictable by UNS, with the usual caveat that this only really works for Tory v Labour contests and is not at all reliable when it comes to the smaller parties.

    If on the other hand you expect an unwinding of the Brexit effect and a return toward more class-driven voting behaviour, or alternatively if you take the view that politics is now so volatile that the Brexit effect could accerate or that some currently unforeseeable dimension will enter the equation, then the UNS model is bust.

    If the age-driven voting pattern persists then the likelihood of a big majority result is increased, since age distributions vary less by location (with the obvious exceptions of student or waiting room seats) than does class. If either party establishes a reasonable lead without any strong class-differential then the seat gains would be considerable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    stevef said:

    by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

    Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

    Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

    Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

    Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.
  • O dear - Watford 2 Chelsea 1
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    stevef said:

    by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

    Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

    Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

    Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

    That's right. And anyone who says punk is dead, will be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    stevef said:

    by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

    Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

    Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

    Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

    Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.
    I started with punk, moved on to New Romantics, and ended youth on Acid House. Skipped Acid itself though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943
    Very insightful thread header.

    Thanks Alastair.
  • Watford 3 Chelsea 1

    Conte gone surely
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,079
    Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943

    I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

    Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.
  • I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

    Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.
    James Kanagasooriam
  • Ave_it said:

    Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Again
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,169
    viewcode said:

    Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

    Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

    I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discovery :)
  • Watford 4 Chelsea 1

    Would you believe it
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,079
    :LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,079
    Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

    I have that in mind for my next project.
    The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.
    My personal experience has been that middle class university graduates, many of which are in my social circle, have moved away from the Conservatives but, at the same time, from canvassing, I found surprising levels of Conservative support in working class areas from about 2005 onwards, and then a fair few of the UKIP vote moved over after 2016.

    But, voting patterns are very stable amongst the over 55s, who seem to pretty much vote Labour or Conservative habitually, regardless.
  • Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!
  • Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!

    I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,478
    Baptism of fire for Jerome Powell at the Fed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,415
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I thought you might turn up with Watford doing this...
  • Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!

    I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'
    That as well
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,079
    Watford!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,685
    Ave_it said:

    Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Ave_it! - good to see you here sir!
  • Final score 4 - 1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943

    I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

    Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.
    James Kanagasooriam
    Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

    I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).

    I've fixed that link, it should work now.

    Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.
    Ta muchly.
  • I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

    Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.
    James Kanagasooriam
    Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.
    He's also on twitter, well worth following.

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,080

    viewcode said:

    Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

    Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

    I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discovery :)
    It's getting really good. Michelle Yeaeaeaeahoh is far better as a villain than a tightass, tho it's a pity what happened to Lorca: I wanted him to stay on!
  • Sky in full anti Brexit mode tonight as usual
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,685
    edited February 5
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297
    I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,037
    edited February 5
    tlg86 said:

    I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?

    He may also be regretting his boasting about the Dow.
  • Mortimer said:
    Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

    Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

    Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261
    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,685

    Mortimer said:
    Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

    Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

    Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
    You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

    And he runs an entire ministry.

    Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195
    tlg86 said:

    I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?

    He is. The difference is that the Left want to fix it, Trump wants to kill it off.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,331

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,742
    Ben Youngs to miss rest of England's campaign with knee ligament injury

    http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/42946822

    At this rate, I might need to dig out my boots !!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I agree with:

    Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

    Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,820

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I agree with:

    Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

    Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
    Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:
    Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

    Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

    Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
    You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

    And he runs an entire ministry.

    Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.
    Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,493

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I wasn’t in favour of intervening in Syria but I have to admit that the alternative has been pretty appalling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,742

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:
    Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

    Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

    Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
    You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

    And he runs an entire ministry.

    Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.
    Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.
    And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....
  • I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I agree with:

    Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

    Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
    Yup.

    It sent out the message that using chemical weapons wouldn't have any consequences for the leader using them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    Staying out of Syria, or at least, not bombing both sides in the same conflict is the smartest thing since Wilson kept us out of Vietnam.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:
    Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

    Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

    Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
    You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

    And he runs an entire ministry.

    Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.
    Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.
    And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....
    Like me, he's a man of the people.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261
    IanB2 said:

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I agree with:

    Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

    Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
    Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.
    Just not quite as bad as 'let me virtue signal and hang the consequences'....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841

    I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.
    You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.
    I agree with:

    Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

    Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
    Unfashionable opinion it may be, but was "emboldening Assad" such a bad thing? After all, as we've now seen, the alternative to him was probably ISIS.
This discussion has been closed.